AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Mar 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 106.44
The greenback's weakness after last Friday's fall to 105.60 confirms correction from March's 15-month trough at 105.25 has ended at 107.29 last Tuesday and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 105.46, below would confirm this view and yield re-test of said support.
However, over sold condition would prevent steep fall beyond there and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 106.75/80 would indicate the pullback from 107.29 has ended instead and turn outlook bullish for gain towards 106.75/80.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand Westpac consumer survey, GDT price index, Australia house price index, Japan coincident indicator, leading indicator.
Swiss trade balance, import, export, Germany producer, UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input, PPI output, PPI core output, EU ZEW economic sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, current conditions.
U.S. Redbook sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Mar 2018 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2255
Euro's intra-day selloff from 1.2355 and then break of Monday's 2-week low of 1.2258 to 1.2240 near New York close due to renewed USD's strength on market expectation of a Fed rate hike and hawkish dot plot later today suggests erratic fall from March's 1.2446 peak would pressure price towards 1.2206, reckon key sup at 1.2155 would contain weakness.

On the upside, above 1.2300 would be the 1st signal low is made and yield subsequent gain towards 1.2359.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Japan market holiday.
UK claimant count, PSNB, ILO unemployment rate, average weekly earnings.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, CBI industrial trends survey, current account, existing home sales, Fed interest rate decision, Fed Monetary Policy Statement, Fed Economic Projections.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Mar 2018 06:00 GMT


EUR/USD - 1.2362
Euro's intra-day rally from 1.2252 in post-FOMC New York and then subsequent jump to 1.2350 on dovish comments by Fed chairman J. Powell suggests recent erratic fall from March's 1.2446 peak has ended at 1.2240 on Tuesday and upside bias remains for gain towards 1.2413 after consolidation, overbought condition would cap price below said key res level.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.2296 'prolongs' recent choppy wild swings and may risk another fall back towards 1.2255/60.

Pay attention to release of a slew of EU data esp. the key German Ifo data. France will kick off 1st with bus climate n final Q4 GDP, then EU's current account, France's Markit mfg n services PMIs, the same from Germany n then Ifo dta n later EU's Markit mfg n services PMIs, the EU eco. bulletin. We also have ECB members n EU President speaking during the day (see EI page for details).

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Mar 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2335
Although yesterday's stronger-than-expected decline from 1.2389 to as low as 1.2286 (NY) signals early upmove from Tuesday's fresh 2-week bottom at 1.2240 has made a top, intra-day selloff in dlr/yen is likely to pressure usd broadly and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 1.2359 would encourage for subsequent re-test of 1.2389.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.2286 prolongs recent volatile sideways swings below March's 1.2446 peak and may risk weakness towards 1.2240 next week.

No important euro area eco. data is due out today but we have EC meeting where EU's Barnier will speak of Brexit transition, EU President Juncker and EC's Tusk will have hold a press conference at 12:00GMT, so stay tune.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Mar 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 105.00
The greenback's fall in Australia and subsequent break of March's 15-month trough at 105.25 to 104.65 on Trump's tariffs signals medium-term decline remains in progress and consolidation with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 104.15/20 would be seen, however, over sold condition would keep price above 104.06 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.

On the upside, only above 105.81 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 106.09/10.

U.S. will release durable goods order n new home sales later today. We also have a no. of Fed officials who will be delivering speeches (pls refer to our EI page for details). Keep an eye on U.S. yields as well as global stock market performance and further weakness in both markets will pressure the buck. T.G.I.F.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26Mar 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2356
Euro's erratic rise to 1.2373 on Friday suggests pullback from last week's high at 1.2389 (Thursday) has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 1.2400, only a daily close above 1.2413 would retain bullishness for subsequent headway towards March's peak at 1.2446.

On the downside, only below 1.2286 'prolongs' recent choppy sideways swings and may risk weakness to 1.2240/50.

Europe has moved its clock forward by one hour and Germany will kick off with import price and then Italy's trade balance Buba President and ECB board member wil speak at 09:30GMT and then he and ECB's Nowotny will be sat 10:30GMT.
Then at 13:00GMT, ECB's Nouy will speak at European Parliament's Eco. and Monetary Affairs Committee.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Mar 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 105.07
The greenback's fall in Australia and subsequent break of last Friday's 16-month trough at 104.64 to 104.57 on Trump's tariffs signals medium-term decline remains in progress and consolidation with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 104.15/20 would be seen.
However, over sold condition would keep price above 104.06 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.

On the upside, only above 105.81 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 106.09/10.

Today's data:
France GDP, Italy trade balance non-EU, U.K. BBA mortgage approvals.
U.S. national activity index, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Mar 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2451
Euro's rally above previous Mar's 1.2446 high to 1.2462 due to broad-based usd's weakness (except vs yen) suggests early correction from Jan's 3-year peak at 1.2555 has ended and as long as 1.2389 (last week's high, now sup) holds, upside bias remains for further gain, o/bot condition is likely to limit upside to 1.2500/10.

Only below 1.2389 signals temporary top is in place and may risk stronger retracement t 1.2340/45 before prospect of rebound.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data in European morning starting with Germany's import prices, Italy's business confidence, consumer confidence n business climate the the same from the EU including eco. and industrial sentimemt ECB Governing Council member Liikanen will speak at 08:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Mar 2018 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2412
Despite euro's resumption of recent upmove from 1.2155 (March low) to a 5-week high of 1.2477, intra-day cable-led sharp fall to 1.2373 at New York open suggests further choppy trading below February's 3-year peak at 1.2555 would continue as long as 1.2440/50 holds, downside bias remains for stronger retracement of said upmove to 1.2310/20.

Only a daily close above 1.2440 signals pullback over and may head to 1.2500/10 later.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand ANZ business outlook, ANZ activity outlook, Germany Gfk consumer confidence.
France consumer confidence, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, U.K. CBI distributive trades.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, GDP annualized final, GDP deflator final, core PCE price final, PCE price final, goods trade balance, wholesales inventories, pending home sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Mar 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2320
Yesterday's expected breach of 1.2373 sup (now res) confirms euro's recent erratic rise from March's 1.2155 trough has made a top at 1.2477 and downside remains for further weakness to 1.2255/65 after consolidation, near term loss of downward momentum should keep price above daily sup at 1.2240.

On the upside, only above 1.2373 signals said strong pullback from 1.2477 has ended, then risk would shift to upside for further gain to 1.2410/20.
Euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Germany's unemployment, Italy's PPI, Germany's CPI n HCIP.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Mar 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 106.57
Yesterday's impressive rally abv 105.90 res to a 2-week peak of 107.01 due to broad-based usd's strength in New York suggests upmove from Monday's 16-month trough at 104.57 would head towareds 107.29 after consolidation, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 107.68 today and risk has increased for a retracement of this week's strong upmove.

On the downside, below 106.00 anytime confirms 1st leg of correction is over and risks stronger retreat to 105.50/55 before prospect of another rebound next week.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Swiss KOF indicator, Germany unemployment change, unemployment rate, CPI preliminary, HICP preliminary, Italy producer price index, U.K. mortgage approvals, GDP.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, core PCE price index, PCE price index, initial jobless claims, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada GDP, producer prices, budget balance

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Apr 2018 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2302
Yesterday's 1-tick weakness below last week's low at 1.2284 suggests recent decline from March's 5-week peak at 1.2477 would resume after consolidation, loss of downward momentum is expected to keep price above daily sup at 1.2240 and bring correction later today or tomorrow.

On the upside, a daily close above Monday's New York high at 1.2344 would be the 1st signal low is in place and risk stronger retracement to 1.2373/77, then later 1.2400/03.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Germany's retail sales, Italy's Markit mfg PMI, then the same France, Germany n the EU. ECB's Board member Mersch will speak in Madrid at 14:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Apr 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2274
Despite yesterday's resumption of decline from March's 1.2477 high to a near 2-week low of 1.2254 in New York, loss of downward momentum should prevent steep fall and reckon 1.2206 would remain intact and yield subsequent rebound.

A daily close above 1.2344 would confirm aforesaid fall has made a low, then outlook would turn bullish for gain to 1.2373/77, then towards 1.2410/15 later this week.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Italy's unemployment, EU CPI and FICP inflation data.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Apr 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2253
Although euro has rebounded in Australia on selloff in dlr/yen following Trump's comments of imposing extra tariffs on China after yesterday's decline to a 1-month trough at 1.2218, as long as res area at 1.2283/90 holds, marginal weakness is likely, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.2175/80.

A daily close above 1.2290 signals low is in place, then outlook would turn bullish for stronger retracement to 1.2315, then 1.2344.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Germany's industrial output, France's trade balance. ECB Board member Coeure will at a conference in Italy at 06:45GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Apr 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2273
Euro's intra-day rally from last Friday's 1-month bottom of 1.2215 (Europe) to 1.2291 in post-NFP New York session due to broad-based usd's weakness on continued U.S/China trade tension and falling U.S. stocks suggests recent decline has made a temporary low and consolidation with upside bias is seen, above 1.2315 would add credence to this view and bring stronger retracement towards 1.2344.

On the downside, only below 1.2236/40 would dampen bullish prospect of further gain and may risk weakness to 1.2215/20.

On the eco. data front, Germany will release imports n exports data. trade balance n current account, then the EU will release Sentix investor confidence index. ECB VP Constancio will speak at the ECON Committee in Brussels at 13:00GMT n then at 16:45GMT, ECB Board member and chief economist Praet will participate in a meeting of the European Finance Forum in Frankfurt.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Apr 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2322
Euro's anticipated rally to 1.2330 due to renewed usd's broad-based weakness in New York confirms recent decline from March's 1.2477 high ended earlier at 1.2215 (Friday) and consolidation with upside bias remains for marginal gain, reckon 1.2373/77 (previous sup, now res) may hold on 1st testing.

On the downside, only below 1.2291 signals temporary top is made and risk stronger retracement to 1.2260/61 before prospect of another rise later this week.

Data to be released later on Tuesday:
France industrial output, Italy industrial output, U.K. BRC retail sales, Canada housing starts, building permits.
U.S. PPI, core PPI, redbook, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Apr 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2361
yesterday's anticipated gain to 1.2378 ahead of New York open on hawkish comments by ECB's Nowotny suggests euro's decline from March's 1.2477 peak has ended at 1.2215 (Friday) and upside bias remains for further gain after consolidation, 'loss of momentum' is likely to cap price at 1.2422.

Only below 1.2325 (New York low) would dampen present bullish outlook and may risk stronger retracement twd 1.2303.
However, 1.2260/70 should remain intact and yield another rise later this week.

On the eco. data front, the only data due out today is Italy's retail sales but we have many speeches during European session by various ECB officials (pls refer to our EI section details) n pay particular attention to speech by ECB President Draghi at an event orgainised by the ECB in Frankfurt at 11:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Apr 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 107.00
Although price has retreated after dollar's rise to a fresh 1-month peak at 107.49 last week and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals medium-term decline has made a temporary low at March's 15-month bottom at 104.57, upside bias is retained and above 107.49 would yield stronger retracement towards 107.90.
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 108.35/40.

On the downside, only below 105.99 would indicate the first leg of correction has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for weakness towards 105.67/70.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Japan corporate goods price, machinery orders, Australia consumer sentiment, China PPI, CPI, .
Italy retail sales, U.K. construction output, industrial output, manufacturing output, trade balances.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, core CPI, CPI, Federal budget and FOMC minutes.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Apr 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2374
As euro has rebounded after yesterday's retreat from a 2-week high of 1.2397 (Europe) to 1.2348 following release of hawkish Fed minutes, bullishness is retained for upmove from 1.2215 (Friday's 1-month trough) to resume after consolidation, loss of upward momentum should cap price below March's peak at 1.2477.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.2348 would signal temporary top has been made, then risk is seen for stronger retracement towards 1.2303 but sup at 1.2260 should remain intact and yield another rise next week.

On the eco. data front, we have France's CPI n then EU's industrial production. Pay attention to the release of ECB's minutes of its last policy meeting at 11:30GMT.
We also have a no. of ECB official delivering speeches during New York morning (pls refer to our EI page for details).

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Apr 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 106.91
Dollar's intra-day sideways move after early retreat from Tuesday's high at 107.40 to 106.65 yesterday suggests further choppy trading below last week's 1-month peak at 107.49 would continue with mild downside bias and marginal weakness from here cannot be ruled out.
Hhowever, as broad-outlook remains consolidative, reckon 106.41 should remain intact and yield another rebound towards said resistance, break would extend to 107.65 later.

On the downside, only below 106.41 would indicate upmove from March's trough at 104.57 has ended there and instead and turn outlook bearish for a stronger retracement to 106.03.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later in the day starting with weekly jobless claims, import n export prices.

We have 2 Fed Presidents (both non-voters) speaking, Dallas Fed's Kaplan at 17:00GMT n then Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari) at 21:00GMT.