AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by AceTRaderForex, Feb 17, 2016.

  1. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Feb 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 07 Feb 2018 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2387
    Despite yesterday's intra-day selloff from 1.2434 (Europe) to a near 2-week trough of 1.2314 in New York morning, subsequent rally to 1.2405 due to strong bounce in U.S. equities suggests euro's correction from Jan's 3-year peak at 1.2538 has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias is seen, above 1.2434 would encourage for further gain twd 1.2475 later this week.

    ON the downside, only below 1.2336 would risk marginal weakness to 1.2300, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.2271/75.

    Data out on Wednesday:
    New Zealand unemployment rate, Australia AIG construction index, Japan conincident indicator, leading indicator.
    Germany industrial output, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy retail sales.
    U.S. MBA mortgage application, ADP employment, and Canada building permits
     
  2. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Feb 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 07 Feb 2018 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 108.93
    Although dlr's erratic rise from Tue's 108.46 to 109.72 (AUS) today suggests further 'choppy' trading above January's 4-month trough at 108.29 would continue, intra-day sharp retreat due to renewed cross-buying of yen signals consolidation with downside bias remains, reckon 108.55/60 would contain weakness.

    Above 109.35/40 would encourage for another rise twd 109.72 but break there needed to retain bullish prospect of stronger gain to 110.00/10.

    No major U.S. eco. data is due out but one can have a look for speeches by Dallas Fed's Kaplan at 11:00GMT, Fed's Dudley at 13:30GMT and Chicago Fed's Evans at 15:30GMT.
     
  3. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Feb 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 07 Feb 2018 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2271
    Euro's selloff below Tuesday's 1.2314 low (now res) to a fresh 2-week trough of 1.2247 in New York yesterday suggests recent decline from January's 3-year peak at 1.2538 would pressure price to 1.2200/10 after consolidation, near term loss of downward momentum should keep price above daily cup at 1.2166.

    On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2314 confirms temporary low is in place and risk would shift to the upside for a stronger retracement to 1.2370/80.

    Germany will release trade data n EU will release economic bulletin. WE have a number of ECB officials speaking during European morning (refer to EI section for details), so keep an eye out for their comments.
     
  4. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Feb 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 09 Feb 2018 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2257
    Despite euro's intra-day cable-led rebound from a near 3-week trough of 1.2212 to 1.2294, subsequent retreat suggests downside bias remains for recent decline to resume after consolidation, loss of downward momentum would prevent steep fall today and reckon daily sup at 1.2166 should remain intact.

    On the upside, a daily close above 1.2295 would be the 1st signal temporary low has been made and yield stronger retracement to 1.2314, then towards 1.2375 next week.

    Eco. calendar in the euro area is very light with France's n Italy's industrial production being the only data due out.
     
  5. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Feb 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 09 Feb 2018 10:00 GMT

    USD/JPY - 109.05
    Despite extending decline from yesterday's 109.79 high to 108.50 initially today, intra-day strong rebound to 109.31 due to cross-selling in yen on late recovery in the Nikkie suggests choppy trading above this week's low at 108.46 (Tuesday) would continue and marginal gain can't be ruled out, reckon 109.79 res would cap present rise and yield another retreat,

    Below 108.46/50 would bring re-test of Jan's 4-month bottom at 108.29 but break needed to extend Medium Term fall towards 107.32 next week.
     
  6. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Feb 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 12 Feb 2018 06:00 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2252
    Although euro's intra-day rebound from Friday's near 3-week trough of 1.2206 suggests recent decline has made a temporary low and initial range trading is in store, as long as previous res at 1.2294/95 holds, downside bias remains, loss of downward momentum would limit weakness to 1.2185/95.

    Only a daily close above 1.2295 would risk stronger retracement to 1.2314 but 1.2360/70 should cap upside.

    No eco. data is due out from the euro area countries so funds flow will have a direct influence on intra-day price swings.
     
  7. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Feb 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 12 Feb 2018 10:00 GMT


    USD/JPY - 108.73
    Despite dollar's cross-inspired resumption of recent erratic decline to a 5-month bottom of 108.05 on Friday, as price has has risen in tandem with rally in U.S. stocks, suggesting temporary low has been made and 1-2 days of choppy consolidation is in store with upside bias.

    Above 108.95 (AUS) would encourage for stronger retracement to 109.31, however, reckon res at 109.79 should cap upside and only below 108.26/30 risks weakness to 08.00/05.

    Data to be released today:
    Swiss CPI, Canada market holiday, and U.S. Fed budget on Monday
     
  8. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Feb 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 13 Feb 2018 04:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2287
    Despite euro's intra-day retreat from 1.2297 (Europe) to 1.2235 in New York yesterday's subsequent rebound to 1.2297 near the close, then today's brief gain to 1.2307 strongly suggests recent decline has made a temporary low at Friday's near 3-week bottom at 1.2206 and above 1.2314 (previous sup, now res) would add credence on this view and bring stronger gain to 1.2333, then towards 1.2370.

    Only below 1.2235 signals recovery is over and risk one more fall, however, loss of downward momentum would keep price above daily sup at 1.2166.

    Data to be released on Tuesday:
    Japan corporate goods price, Australia NAB business conditions, France non-farm payrolls, Swiss producer/import price, UK DCLG house price index, CPI, RPI, PPI input, PPI output, and U.S. redbook
     
  9. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Feb 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 13 Feb 2018 05:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 107.68
    Despite dollar's cross-inspired resumption of recent erratic decline to a 5-month bottom of 108.05 on Friday, as price has has risen in tandem with rally in U.S. stocks, suggesting temporary low has been made and 1-2 days of choppy consolidation is in store with upside bias.

    Above 108.95 (AUS) would encourage for stronger retracement to 109.31, however, reckon res at 109.79 should cap upside and only below 108.26/30 risks weakness to 108.00/05.

    U.S. eco. calendar is very thin with Redbook retail sales being the only data due out ahead of Wed's key inflation n retail sales data.
    Last but not least, Cleveland Fed President (voter) will speak on the economic outlook at a breakfast conference at 13:00GMT.
     
  10. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Feb 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 14 Feb 2018 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2358
    Yesterday's yen-led rally above 1.2314 to 1.2371 in New York signals euro's recent correction from January's 3-year peak at 1.2538 has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias is seen, near term loss of upward momentum is expected to cap price at 1.2434 and bring subsequent retreat.

    On the downside, expect 1.2314 to and yield marginal gain and only a daily close below there risks stronger retracement towards 1.2285 before prospect of another rise.

    Today is GDP day in the euro area counties, Germany will kick off with GDP, CPI, then Italy's GDP, the same from the EU n industrial production. Also, there is quite a no. of ECB members n European officials delivering speeches during the day, please refer to our Economic Indicators page for details.
     
  11. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Feb 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 14 Feb 2018 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 107.38
    Despite the greenback's selloff below yesterday's low at 107.41 to a fresh 15-month trough at 106.84 on broad-based buying yen, current rebound suggests medium-term decline has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen for retracement to 107.90, however, 108.05/10 should remain intact and yield another fall later today or early tomorrow.

    On the upside, only above 108.05 would confirm a bottom has been made and risk stronger correction towards 108.44/50 before prospect of retreat.

    Data to be released on Wednesday:
    Japan GDP, GPD deflator, Germany GDP flash, CPI final, HICP final, Italy GDP, EU GDP flash, industrial production, and U.S. MBA mortgage application, CPI, real weekly earnings, retail sales, business inventories
     
  12. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Feb 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 15 Feb 2018 07:00 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2459
    Euro's intra-day rally in post-U.S. CPI New York session from 1.2276 to as high as 1.2465 signals early correction from Jan's 3-year peak at 1.2538 has ended there and upside bias remains for gain to 1.2500/10, break there would encourage for re-test of 1.2538 later today or tomorrow.

    Expect 1.2392 (previous res, now sup) to hold for this move and only a daily close below there 'prolongs' volatile consolidation and risks stronger retracement to 1.2345/55.

    Data to be released on Thursday:
    Australia consumer confidence, employment change, unemployment rate, Japan machinery orders, industrial production, capacity utilization, machine tool orders.
    France ILO unemployment rate, Italy trade balance, EU trade balance.
    U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed Survey, PPI, Industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, NAHB housing market index
     
  13. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Feb 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 15 Feb 2018 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 106.57
    Despite the greenback's selloff below yesterday's low at 107.41 to a fresh 15-month trough at 106.84 on broad-based buying yen, current rebound suggests medium-term decline has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen for retracement to 107.90, however, 108.05/10 should remain intact and yield another fall later today or early tomorrow.

    On the upside, only above 108.05 would confirm a bottom has been made and risk stronger correction towards 108.44/50 before prospect of retreat.

    After yesterday's key U.S. inflation data and retail sales, we have initial jobless claims, New York Empire Sate mfg index, Philly Fed mfg survey, final PPI, industrial production, manufacturing output and NAHB Housing Market index.
     
  14. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Feb 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 20 Feb 2018 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2406
    Although euro's anticipated decline from last Friday's fresh 3-year peak at 1.2555 to 1.2269 in holiday-thinned North American morning Monday confirms recent uptrend has made a top there, subsequent short-covering rebound would bring consolidation before prospect of marginal weakness, loss of near term downward momentum would keep price above 1.2320/25.

    On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2460 signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk stronger retracement to 1.2485/95 before another fall later this week.

    Euro area countries will release some data during European morning starting with Germany's PPI, Germany's ZEW eco. sentiment and current situation survey and EU's ZEW eco. sentiment. Out-going ECB VP Constancio will participate in ECOFIN meeting in Brussels today.
     
  15. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Feb 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 21 Feb 2018 04:00 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2340
    Despite yesterday's resumption of decline from last Fri's 3-year peak at 1.2555 to 1.2320 in New York due to broad-based usd's strength, loss of downward momentum should prevent steep fall today and reckon sup at 1.2276 should remain intact and bring subsequent rebound.

    On the upside, a firm rise above 1.2369 would be the 1st signal temporary low is made and yield a much-needed retracement of said decline, however, res at 1.2435 (Monday's high) should cap upside.

    Today is PMI day, France will kick off with manuf. and services PMIs, then the same from Germany n hen the EU.
     
  16. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Feb 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 22 Feb 2018 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2272
    As euro has fallen sharply after yesterday's rebound from 1.2300 to 1.2359 (post-FOMC minutes), suggesting decline from last Friday's fresh 3-year peak at 1.2555 has once again resumed, near term loss of downward momentum would prevent steep fall today and reckon sup at 1.2206 (Feb's bottom) would remain intact.

    On the upside, only above 1.2320 signals temporary low is possibly made and would head back to 1.2359/61 but 1.2412/15 res should remain intact.

    Data to be released on Thursday:
    France business climate, CPI (EU norm), Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, CPI, CPI (EU norm), U.K. GDP, Canada retail sales, budget balance and U.S. initial jobless claims, leading indicators, KC Fed manufacturing
     
  17. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Feb 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 23 Feb 2018 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2321
    Despite yesterday's resumption of decline from last Friday's 3-year peak of 1.2555 to 1.2260 in Europe, subsequent rally following release of ECB minutes to 1.2352 due intra-day usd's broad-based weakness in New York morning suggests temporary low has been made and consolidation with near term upside bias is is seen.

    As long as 1.2300 holds, further gain to 1.2370/80 is envisaged but res at 1.2412/15 should cap upside. A daily close below 1.2300 signals recovery is over and would head to 1.2225/35 early next week.

    Data to be released on Friday:
    New Zealand retail sales, Japan national CPI, China house price, Germany GDP, EU CPI, and Canada CPI, budget balance
     
  18. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Feb 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 23 Feb 2018 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 106.89
    Although the greenback has recovered after yesterday's selloff to as low as 106.60 and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move confirms correction from last Friday's 15-month trough at 105.55 has ended at 107.90 Wednesday, downside bias is retained and below said 106.60 low would extend towards 106.10. However, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 105.90/93 and yield a rebound early next week.

    On the upside, only above 107.60 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and turn outlook bullish for a re-test of said resistance, break, 108.15/20.

    No U.S. eco. data is due out today but we have release of Fed's monetary policy report for the U.S. Congress at 16:00GMT.
    Also, we have 3 Fed officials speaking starting with out-going Fed's Dudley (voter), Boston Fed's Rosengren (non-voter) and Cleveland Fed's Mester (voter).
     
  19. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Feb 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 26 Feb 2018 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2282
    Despite euro's intra-day sideways swings on Fri following a brief but strong rebound from Thursday's 9-day trough of 1.2260 to 1.2352, as long as said res (reaction high) holds, consolidation with downside bias remains and below 1.2260 would extend recent fall from February's 1.2555 peak marginally lower, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above Feb's bottom at 1.2206 today.

    On the upside, above initial res at 1.2321 would risk stronger gain towards 1.2352 but only a firm break there needed to yield stronger correction to 1.2390/00.

    Although no eco. data is due out from the euro area countries, pay attention to speech by ECB President Mario Draghi before the European Parliament's ECON committee at 14:00GMT.
    However, prior that, ECB's Coeure will speak at 10:00GMT.
     
  20. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Feb 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 27 Feb 2018 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2330
    Although euro's decline from 1.2355 (Europe) to as low as 1.2278 in New York morning yesterday suggests early correction from last week's low at 1.2260 has ended, intra-day rebound in Asia may bring further choppy sideways swings, as long as 1.2355 holds, re-test of 1.2260 is likely.
    Loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.2206 (February bottom).

    On the upside, a daily close above 1.2355 would risk stronger retracement of early fall from February's 3-year peak at 1.2555 to 1.2372, however, res at 1.2412/15 should cap upside.

    Data out on Tuesday:
    France consumer confidence, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, trade balance, Germany CPI, HICP, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, service sentiment, consumer confidence
     

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