AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by AceTRaderForex, Feb 17, 2016.

  1. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

    2,045
    2
    74
    AceTraderFx Jan 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 16 Jan 2018 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2262
    Despite yesterday's resumption of last week's strong ascent to a 3-year high of 1.2297 in European morning, subsequent sideways swings in holiday-thinned North American session due to U.S. market holiday suggests initial range trading would be seen before recent uptrend resumes, weakening of near term upward momentum is likely to cap price at 1.2365/70.

    On the downside, only a daily close below 1.2218 (Friday's high, now sup) confirms temporary top is made and risks stronger retracement towards 1.2188.

    Data to be released on Tuesday:
    New Zealand business confidence, electronic retail sales, Japan corporate goods price index, Germany CPI, HICP, wholesale price index, France budget balance, Italy trade balance, CPI, U.K. DCLG house price, CPI, RPI, PPI, Italy CPI, and U.S. New York Fed manufacturing.
     
  2. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

    2,045
    2
    74
    AceTraderFx Jan 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 17 Jan 2018 06:00 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2297
    Euro's intra-day jump above Mon's 3-year high of 1.2297 to 1.2323 in hectic Asian morning due to usd's broad-based weakness on renewed market concerns of a U.S. govt. shutdown suggests recent uptrend would extend marginal gain after consolidation, loss of upward momentum is expected to cap price at 1.2375/80 and risk has increased for a correction to take place later today or tom.

    Below 1.2250/55 would be the first signal temp. top is made and may risk weakness to 1.2218/23 but yesterday's 1.2195 low should remain intact.

    The only eco. data out of the euro area is EU CPI but pay attention to speeches by ECB member n Bank of France President Villeroy at 08:30GMT (his comments in New York sent euro to session lows - see Tuesday's news) and then ECB's Nowotny at 08:55GMT.
     
  3. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

    2,045
    2
    74
    AceTraderFx Jan 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 18 Jan 2018 06:00 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2188
    Despite yesterday's initial jump to a fresh 3-year peak of 1.2323, as subsequent intra-day 'wild' swings had ended with euro's decline from 1.2287 to 1.2166 in Australia today, suggesting temporary top has been made and choppy consolidation is in store.

    A break of 1.2155/60 would bring stronger retracement towards 1.2112 whilst ab 1.2250/54 signals pullback has possibly ended and yields subsequent gain towards 1.2283/87.

    No EU eco. data is out today but pay attention to speeches by various ECB officials starting with ECB's Weidmann, Couere and Villeroy, the latter may repeat his early dovish comments on euro.
     
  4. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

    2,045
    2
    74
    AceTraderFx Jan 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 18 Jan 2018 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 111.21
    The greenback's sharp fall and subsequent break of November's trough at 110.84 to a fresh 4-month low at 110.48 Monday, then 110.20 today signals erratic decline from November's peak at 114.74 has finally resumed and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 110.10/15.
    However, over sold condition would keep price above 109.70/74 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

    On the upside, only above 111.19 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk would increase for a stronger retracement to 111.69/70.

    Data release on Thursday :
    Australia consumer sentiment, employment change, unemployment rate, Japan industrial production, producer/import price, China house price, industrial output, retail sales, GDP, and U.S.housing starts, building permits, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey.
     
  5. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

    2,045
    2
    74
    AceTraderFx Jan 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 18 Jan 2018 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2236
    Despite yesterday's initial marginal weakness to 1.2166 (Australia), euro's subsequent rally back to 1.2265 in New York suggests early pullback from Wednesday's fresh 3-year peak at 1.2323 has ended and consolidation with upside bias is in store, above 1.2287/97 res would encourage for re-test of 1.3223.
    However, loss of upwards momentum should cap price at 1.2365/70 and risk has increased for a stronger correction to take place.

    Below 1.2195/00 would 'prolong' choppy sideways swings below 1.2323 and yields re-test of 1.2166, a break there would bring weakness towards 1.2115/20.

    On the data front, Germany will release PPI and then EU will release current account data.
     
  6. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

    2,045
    2
    74
    AceTraderFx Jan 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 22 Jan 2018 06:00 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2245
    Euro's decline on Friday from 1.2295 to 1.2215 (New York) suggests further 'choppy' trading below last Wednesday's fresh 3-year peak at 1.2323 would continue and despite initial higher open to 1.2274 today following U.S. govt. shutdown and Germany's SPD voted to continue coalition talks, volatile consolidation is expected to continue.

    As long as 1.2166 sup holds, another bounce towards 1.2295 is still envisaged but above is needed to bring re-test of 1.2323.

    No eco. data is due out from the euro area countries except release of Germany's Bundesbank Monthly Report during European morning.
     
  7. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

    2,045
    2
    74
    AceTraderFx Jan 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 23 Jan 2018 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2271
    Although yesterday's intra-day broad sideways swings suggest further choppy trading below last Wed's 3-year peak at 1.2323 would continue, as long as near term good sup at 1.2214/15 holds, upside bias remains, above 1.2323 needed to extend uptrend to 1.2365/70 'later'.

    A daily close below 1.2214 would prolong consolidation and may risk weakness towards last week's low at 1.2166 which should remain intact.

    Data out on Tuesday:
    Japan interest rate decision, monetary policy statement, BoJ Gov. Kuroda's press conference.
    U.K. public sector net borrowing, PSNCR, CBI industrial trends survey, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, current conditions, EU ZEW economic sentiment, consumer confidence.
    U.S. redbook, Richmond Fed manufacturing
     
  8. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

    2,045
    2
    74
    AceTraderFx Jan 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 23 Jan 2018 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 111.01
    Despite the greenback's strong rebound from last Wednesday's fresh 4-month trough at 110.20 to 111.48 last Thursday, subsequent retreat suggests the first leg of correction has ended and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen for weakness to 110.30/40, below would confirm this view and yield re-test of aforesaid support.
    However, loss of momentum would prevent steep fall below there and yield rebound later.

    On the upside, only above 111.48 would revive bullishness for a stronger retracement of medium term decline towards 111.69/70, then 111.88/90 later this week.

    U.S. eco. calendar is pretty light with Redbook sales and Richmond Fed manufacturing index the only data due out later today.
     
  9. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

    2,045
    2
    74
    AceTraderFx Jan 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 24 Jan 2018 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2308
    Euro's rally in New York morning to 1.2306 after release of upbeat EZ consumer confidence which led to broad-based usd's weakness and intra-day gain to 1.2315 suggests re-test of last Wed's 3-year peak at 1.2323 is on the cards, above would extend recent uptrend to projected target at 1.2365/70, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.2400.

    On the downside, only below 1.2250/60 prolongs choppy trading below 1.2323 and may risk another fall to 1.2214/15 before prospect of another rebound.

    Data out on Wednesday:
    France business climate, Markit manufacturing PMI, Market service PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit service PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit service PMI, U.K. claimant count change, ILO unemployment rate, average weekly earnings.
    U.S. MBA mortgage application, monthly home price, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, existing home sales, and Canada budget balance.
     
  10. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

    2,045
    2
    74
    AceTraderFx Jan 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 25 Jan 2018 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2404
    Yesterday's rally above last Wed's 3-year high of 1.2323 (now sup) to as high as 1.3415 due to broad-based usd's decline following weak dollar comments by U.S. Mnuchin suggests recent uptrend would head to 1.2450/60 after consolidation, near term loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.2500.

    On the downside, below 1.2356 anytime signals temporary top has been made and risks stronger retracement towards 1.2323.

    Ahead of the key ECB rate decision and then press conference, euro area countries will release a slew of data starting with Germany's Gfk consumer confidence n important Ifo bussiness climate and eco. assessment, Italy's trade balance, industrial orders n sales, so one can expect a 'lively' European morning session.
     
  11. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

    2,045
    2
    74
    AceTraderFx Jan 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 26 Jan 2018 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.3423
    Despite euro's resumption of recent uptrend to a fresh 3-year high of 1.2538 in post-ECB New York morning, subsequent selloff to as low as 1.2365 following Trump's :strong dollar" comments confirms long-awaited correction has taken place and intra-day rebound in Asia should bring choppy consolidation, below 1.2365 would pressure price to 1.2323.

    On the upside, only above 1.2463 signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk stronger gain to 1.2490/00 before prospect of another decline.

    Data out on Friday :
    Australia market holiday, Japan national CPI, national core CPI, Tokyo CPI, Tokyo core CPI.
    France business climate, consumer confidence, U.K. GDP.
    U.S. durable goods, durables ex-transportation, durables ex-defence, GDP annualized, GDP deflator, and Canada CPI, core CPI
     
  12. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

    2,045
    2
    74
    AceTraderFx Jan 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 29 Jan 2018 04:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2401
    Although euro's strong rebound to 1.2494 on Friday suggests early pullback from Thursday's fresh 3-year peak at 1.2538 has ended at 1.2365 on the same day, intra-day weakness in Asia suggests choppy sideways swings would continue, as long as said sup hold, prospect of another rebound remains, above 1.2450/55 would head back towards 1.2494.

    Below 1.2365 would risk stronger retracement of recent uptrend towards 1.2323 before prospect of rebound.

    Eco. calendar is pretty light with Germany's import prices n Italy's PPI being the only data due out today. ECB's Chief Economist Praet will deliver a speech at Council of the EU in Brussels at 10:00GMT (so stay tune to his comments), ECB's Lautenschlager and Bundesbank Board member Dombret will speak at a banking conference in FFT and lastly ECB Board member Coeure will speaking at a banking event in Paris at 16:00GMT.
     
  13. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

    2,045
    2
    74
    AceTraderFx Jan 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 29 Jan 2018 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 108.91
    Although dollar has recovered after last Friday's fall to a fresh 4-month trough at 108.29 and minor consolidation would be seen for 1-2 days, as said move signals medium-term decline has resumed, downside bias is retained for one more fall. Below 108.29 would extend marginally but oversold condition would keep price above 107.70/80 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

    On the upside, only above 109.77 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 110.05/10 before prospect of retreat.

    Data out on Monday:
    Australia HIA new home sales, Germany import price, Italy producer price index, and U.S. personal income, PCE price index, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.
     
  14. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

    2,045
    2
    74
    AceTraderFx Jan 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 30 Jan 2018 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2380
    Although euro's intra-day selloff from 1.2428 (Europe) and then break of 1.2365 sup to 1.2338 in New York confirms recent uptrend has formed a temp. top at last Thursday's fresh 3-year peak at 1.2538, subsequent rebound to 1.2390 signals 1st leg of correction has possibly ended and 1-2 days of choppy sideways swings are in store.

    Above 1.2400 would head to 1.2435/40 but 1.2494 should cap upside whilst below 1.2338 would bring stronger retracement to 1.2300/05 but loss of momentum should keep price above 1.2270/75.

    Data out on Tuesday:
    New Zealand trade balance, imports, exports, Japan household spending, unemployment rate, retail sales, Australia NAB business conditions.
    France GDP, consumer spending, Germany CPI, HICP, Swiss trade balance, import, export, KOF indicator, Italy business condition, consumer confidence, UK mortgage approvals, EU GDP, business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, service sentiment, consumer confidence.
    U.S. redbook, Case-Shiller home price indices, consumer confidence
     
  15. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

    2,045
    2
    74
    AceTraderFx Jan 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 31 Jan 2018 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2420
    Yesterday's intra-day rally from 1.2336 (Europe) to as high as 1.2454 in New York morning suggests euro's early correction from last Thursdays fresh 3-year peak at 1.2538 has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias is seen, above 1.2454 would add credence to this view and yield further headway towards 1.2494.

    Only below 1.2365 prolongs choppy sideways swings and may risk weakness towards 1.2336, break would yield stronger retracement to 1.2300/05.

    Data due out on Wednesday:
    Japan industrial production, consumer confidence index, construction orders, housing start, Australia CPI, China NBS non-manufacturing PMI, NBS manufacturing PMI.
    UK Gfk consumer confidence, BRC retail sales, Germany retail sales, unemployment change, unemployment rate, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, ZEW investor sentiment, France CPI, producer prices, Italy unemployment rate, EU CPI, unemployment rate.
    U.S. MBA mortgage application, ADP employment change, Chicago PMI, pending home sales, Fed interest rate decision, and Canada GDP
     
  16. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

    2,045
    2
    74
    AceTraderFx Feb 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 01 Feb 2018 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2422
    Although euro's intra-day gain to 1.2475 in New York morning suggests early correction from last Thursday's fresh 3-year peak at 1.2538 has ended at 1.2336 (Tuesday), subsequent strong retreat to 1.2388 in post-FOMC trading on mildly hawkish Fed statement suggests choppy consolidation below 1.2538 would continue until release of Friday's key payrolls data.

    Below 1.2388 would risk weakness towards 1.2336 which is likely to hold from here and only above 1.2494 would head towards 1.2538.

    Today is PMI day in the euro area counties, Italy will release Markit mfg PMI, then the same from France, Germany and the EU. ECB Chief Economist Praet will deliver a speech in Brussels at 11:15GMT.
     
  17. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

    2,045
    2
    74
    AceTraderFx Feb 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 01 Feb 2018 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 109.48
    The greenback's rally to 109.45 yesterday in post-FOMC trading due partly to a hawkish FOMC statement and then intra-day rise above this resistance to 109.64 suggests recent decline has made a temporary low at last Friday's fresh 4-month trough at 108.29 and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen for a stronger retracement to 109.90.
    But near term loss of momentum would keep price below 110.20 and yield retreat.

    On the downside, only below 108.60 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk re-test of 108.29, break would extend towards 107.90/00.

    Data due out later on Thursday:
    Swiss consumer confidence, retail sales, manufacturing, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, UK Markit manufacturing PMI.
    U.S. initial jobless claims, labor costs, nonfarm productivity, Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI, and Canada Markit manufacturing PMI.
     
  18. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

    2,045
    2
    74
    AceTraderFx Feb 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 02 Feb 2018 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2503
    Yesterday's rally above 1.2475 res and subsequent daily close above 1.2500 suggests re-test of last Thursday
    .'s 3-year peak at 1.2538 would be forthcoming soon, break there would extend recent uptrend to next projected target at 1.2600/10.

    On the downside, only below 1.2432 (New York low) would 'prolong' choppy consolidation and risk another fall towards 1.3286 but sup at 1.2336/38 should remain intact.

    Data to be released on Friday:
    UK Markit construction PMI, Italy CPI, CPI(EU Norm), EU producer prices.
    U.S. non-form payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, ISM New York index, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transportation, University of Michigan sentiment.
     
  19. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

    2,045
    2
    74
    AceTraderFx Feb 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 05 Feb 2018 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2456
    Despite euro's erratic rise from last week's 1.2336 low to 1.2522 (Thursday), Friday's intra-day selloff to as low as 1.2409 after robust U.S. jobs data suggests further choppy trading below January's 3-year peak at 1.2538 would continue and subsequent strong bounce to 1.2490 in New York afternoon, then intra-day weakness to 1.2425 should bring more 'sideways swings' before prospect of another fall to 1.2384/86.

    On the upside, only above 1.2490 would risk stronger gain towards 1.2518 (Friday's high) but 1.2538 should continue to hold from here.

    Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, Italy will kick off with the release of Markit services PMI, then the same from France, Germany and then the EU. Later, EU will release Sentix investor confidence n retail sales. Lastly, ECB's Draghi will make statement on the Draft Resolution of the European Parliament in Stasbourg, France at 16:00GMT.
     
  20. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

    2,045
    2
    74
    AceTraderFx Feb 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 05 Feb 2018 06:10 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.2373
    Yesterday's selloff from 1.2475 (Europe) to as low as 1.2363 suggests consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards last week's low at 1.2336 where a break there would extend early decline from Jan's 3-year peak at 1.2538 to 1.2300/05, oversold condition would keep price above 1.2270/75.

    On the upside, only above 1.2430 res would 'prolong' recent volatile daily sideways swings and risk another bounce towards 1.2475 but reckon 1.2500 should cap upside.

    On the eco. data front, Germany will release industrial order n then France's budget balance. ECB Governing Board member and Bundesbank's President Weidmann will deliver a speech at 09:00GMT.
     

Share This Page