AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1889
Euro's intra-day rally from Tuesday's 3-month trough at 1.1836 (Asia) to as high as 1.1915 in Europe due to broad-based usd's weakness on the back of falling US yields and gain in global stocks suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low and 1-2 days of consolidation is in store.

As long as 1.1866 holds, marginal gain is seen but reckon 1.1953 (February low, now res) would cap upside and yield decline but below 1.1852 needed to extend weakness towards 1.1800 later this week.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand retail sales, Australia consumer sentiment, China PPI, CPI.
France industrial output, Italy producer price index.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings, Federal budget and Canada Bank of Canada interest rate decision.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 10: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Mar 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.81
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 7-month peak at 109.23 in Asia yesterday on usd's continued strength, subsequent sharp retreat in tandem with U.S. yields suggests upmove from January's 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 108.10, however, support at 107.83 should remain intact, yield rebound later.

On the upside, only above 109.23 would revive bullishness for gain to 109.50/60 but loss of momentum would cap price below 109.90/00.

U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data, pay attention to core CPI n CPI at 13:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFxMar 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1919
Although yesterday's intra-day wild swings ended with euro ratcheting higher to 1.1929 near New York close, suggesting corrective rise from Tuesday's fresh 3-month bottom at 1.1836 would extend marginal gain, reckon upside would falter well below 1.1992 (Feb low, now res) and yield decline.

On the downside, below 1.1869 (Wednesday low) signals said recovery has ended, then price should head back towards 1.1869.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand food price index, Japan corporate goods price index, Australia consumer inflation expectations.
UK RICS housing price balance, EU ECB refinancing rate decision, ECB deposit rate decision.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, JOLTS job openings.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 11: AceTraderFx Mar 11: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Mar 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.50
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 7-month peak at 109.23 on Tuesday due to usd's continued strength, subsequent sharp retreat to 108.35 yesterday in tandem with U.S. yields suggests upmove from January's 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 108.10, however, support at 107.83 should remain intact, yield rebound later.

On the upside, only above 109.23 would revive bullishness for gain to 109.50/60 but loss of momentum would cap price below 109.90/00.

Eco. calendar in the U.S. is pretty light (see our EI page for details) but do pay attention to release of weekly jobless claims and continued jobless claims to feel the pulse of latest U.S. employment situation.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1985
Euro's intra-day rally above 1.1953 (February low) to as high as 1.1990 in post-ECB New York Thursday suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low at Tuesday's 3-month trough at 1.1836 and as long as 1.1929 (New York low) holds, upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.2030/40 before prospect of retreat due to near term overbought condition.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1929 signals said corrective rise has made a top and risk would shift to the downside for weakness towards 1.1869 early next week.

Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand manufacturing PMI.
Germany CPI, HICP, UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate, EU industrial production.
U.S. PPI, core PPI, University of Michigan sentiment and Canada capacity utilization, employment change, unemployment rate, wholesale trade.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFxMar 12: AceTraderFx Mar 12: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Mar 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.09
Despite the greenback's selloff from Tuesday's fresh 7-month peak at 109.23 to 108.35 on Wednesday due to broad-based weakness in usd, intra-day rally on jump in U.S. Treasury yields suggests the pullback has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for a re-test of aforesaid top, break would extend Medium Term upmove to 109.60/70 before prospect of correction.

On the downside, only below 108.35 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.10 would be seen

T.G.I.F., U.S. will release PPI, core PPI n then University of Michigan consumer confidence at 13:30GMT n 15:00GMT respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1955
Despite Friday's initial strong retreat to 1.1911 (Europe), subsequent rebound to 1.1961 in New York on return of risk sentiment suggests sideways swings are in store, above 1.1990 (Thursday high) would extend corrective rise from March's 3-month bottom at 1.1836 to 1.2030/35 later.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1911 would signal recovery has ended, then outlook would turn bearish for weakness towards 1.1869.

Data to be released today :
Japan machinery orders, tertiary industry activity, China house prices, industrial output, retail sales.
UK Rightmove house price.
Canada housing starts, manufacturing sales, and U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFxMar 15: AceTraderFx Mar 15: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Mar 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.04
The greenback's intra-day break above last Tuesday's 9-month peak at 109.23 to 109.36 in Asia on rising U.S. yields suggests upmove from January's 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 has once again resumed and consolidation with upside bias remains for further gain to daily objective at 109.60, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 109.90/00 and yield correction later.

On the downside, only below 108.35 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.00/10 later.

U.S. has moved to summer time on Sunday and the only eco. data due out today is New York Fed mfg index due out at 12:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1925
Despite Friday's initial strong retreat to 1.1911 (Europe), subsequent rebound to 1.1961 (NY) on return of risk sentiment, then 1.1967 yesterday suggests sideways swings are in store, below 1.1911 indicates correction from Mar's 3-month trough at 1.1836 over and yields weakness towards 1.1869.

Only above 1.1990 (Thursday's high) would extend said corrective rise to 1.2030/35 later.

The euro area counties will release a slew of eco. data plus a number of ECB officials are scheduled to speak (pls refer to our EI page for details). Pat attention to Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index at 10:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 16: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Mar 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.22
The greenback's break above last Tuesday's 9-month peak at 109.23 to 109.36 in Asia yesterday on rising U.S. yields suggests upmove from January's 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 has once again resumed and consolidation with upside bias remains for further gain to daily objective at 109.60, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 109.90/00 and yield correction later.

On the downside, only below 108.35 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.00/10 later.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Germany wholesale price index, ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, France CPI (EU norm), CPI, Italy CPI, CPI (EU norm), EU ZEW survey expectation.
U.S. import prices, export prices, retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, redbook, business inventories, NAHB housing market index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1904
Euro's break of previous 1.1911 sup to 1.1883 yesterday in New York due to intra-day cross-selling in euro strongly suggests early correction from March's 3-month low at 1.1836 has ended at 1.1990 last week (Thursday), a daily close below 1.1883 would add credence to this view and yield weakness towards 1.1836.

Only a move back above Tuesday's 1.1951 high (Fed's dovish hold perhaps) prolongs choppy trading above 1.1836 and may head back to 1.1967, then 1.1980/90.

The only data due out during European mornings are from the EU at 10:00GMT, these include HICP, core HICP n construction output n market is expected to show muted reaction to them.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 17: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Mar 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.15
Although dollar's retreat from Monday's fresh 9-month high at 109.36 suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top, yesterday's rebound from 108.78 to 109.20 at European open today suggests pullback has ended and marginal gain would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum should cap price below 109.84 today.

On the downside, only below 108.78 would risk stronger retracement to 108.35/37 before another bounce.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand current account, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Australia leading index.
EU construction output, HICP, core HICP.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, building permits, housing starts, Fed interest rate decision, and Canada CPI, core CPI on Wednesda

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1980
Euro's erratic rise from March's 3-month trough at 1.1836 to 1.1990 last week (Thursday) suggests Medium Term fall from 2021 peak at 1.2349 (Jan) has made a temp. low and despite subsequent fall to 1.1883 (Tuesday), yesterday's rally to 1.1985 in post-FOMC New York would head to 1.2035.

Trade from long side for 1.2035 but 1.2093 (50% r from 1.2349) should hold.
Below 1.1951, 1.1916, 1.1883.

The euro area-area countries will release a slew of eco. data n ECB President plus some other ECB officials are scheduled to speak later today (please see EI page for details) at various venues but topics are not related to ECB's monetary policy.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 18: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Mar 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.06
Despite the greenback's rebound to 108.32 yesterday, subsequent sharp retreat in post-FOMC trading on usd's broad-based weakness to 108.75, then 108.63 today suggests choppy trading below March's 9-month peak at 109.36 would continue with mild downside bias and weakness to 108.50 would be seen after consolidation, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 108.35.

On the upside, only above 109.36 would revive bullishness for one more rise to 109.62/65 before prospect of a correction early next week.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand GDP, Australia employment change, unemployment rate.
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, producer and import price, Italy trade balance, EU trade balance, labour costs, UK BoE interest rate decision, asset purchase program, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, leading index change, and Canada ADP employment change, new housing price index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 19: aily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1916
Euro's decline from 1.1988 to as low as 1.1907 yesterday due to broad-based usd's strength on the back of rising U.S. treasury yields suggests further volatile trading below last week's high at 1.1990 (Thursday) would continue and downside bias remains for further weakness to 1.1883, a daily close below there would pressure price towards March's 3-month bottom at 1.1836 later next week.

Only above 1.1951/56 prolongs this week's choppy swings but only break of 1.1988/90 risks stronger correction of recent decline to 1.2030/35.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan nationwide core CPI, nationwide CPI.
UK GfK consumer confidence, PSNB, PSNCR, Australia retail sales, Japan BoJ interest rate decision, Germany producer prices.
Canada retail sales, retail sales ex-autos.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 19: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Mar 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.83
Despite the greenback's rebound from 108.63 to 109.30 yesterday, intra-day fall on active cross-buying in jpy suggests choppy trading below March's 9-month peak at 109.36 would continue with mild downside bias and weakness to 108.50 would be seen after consolidation, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 108.35.

On the upside, only above 109.36 would revive bullishness for one more rise to 109.62/65 before prospect of a correction early next week.

T.G.I.F., no economic data is due out today and market will take cue from intra-day move in the 10-year US yields as well as U.S. stock performance, any further weakness in the Dow will push the greenback higher.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1889
Euro's decline from 1.1988 (Thursday) to 1.1874 Friday suggests the correction from March's 3-month trough at 1.1836 has ended earlier at 1.1990 and downside bias remains for re-test of said key sup this week after consolidation, break would extend medium-term decline to 1.1800.

On the upside, only above Fri's 1.1938 high dampens present bearish outlook and risks stronger gain but reckon 1.1970/80 would cap upside.

Data to be released today :
Japan coincident index, leading economic index.
EU current account, Germany Buba monthly report.
U.S. national activity index, existing home sales on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1933
Despite euro's decline from last week's high at 1.1988 to 1.1873 (New Zealand) initially on Monday, subsequent rebound to 1.1946 in New York due to broad-based euro buying suggests further choppy swings inside recent 1.1836-1.1990 range would continue, reckon intra-day upside would falter below 1.1988 and yield another fall later today or tomorrow.

On the downside, below 1.1873 would encourage for weakness towards 1.1836.

The only eco. data due out today are Italy's industrial orders n industrial sales. We have a number of ECB officials scheduled to speak during the day, please refer to our EI section for details.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 23: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Mar 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.75
The greenback's gap-down open to 108.53 in New Zealand yesterday on risk-averse buying in jpy due to a selloff in Turkish lira suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top at March's 9-month peak at 109.36 last week and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 108.35, however, support at 108.10 should remain intact and yield rebound later.

On the upside, only above 109.12 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk re-test of said resistance later this week.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand Westpac consumer survey.
U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, CBI trends orders, Italy industrial order, industrial sales.
U.S. building permits R, current account, redbook, new home sales, Richmond Fed manufacturing.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1845
Euro's intra-day weakness on continued broad-based usd's strength due to risk-off trade suggests price would penetrate March's 3-month low at 1.1836 next, break there would extend Medium Term downtrend from January's near 33-month peak at 1.2349 towards projected target at 1.1787 later this week, oversold condition should keep price above 1.1746 sup.

Only a daily close above 1.1873 (Monday low, now res) signals temporary bottom is possibly made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1935/45.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details and pay attention to Markit mfg n services PMIs. Market will also follow testimonies by Fed Chair's Powell n U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen.
Later today, Fed's Williams n Fed's Daily are scheduled to speak in New York afternoon.