AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Jan 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2257
The single currency's selloff from 1.2345 to as low as 1.2246 yesterday suggests Medium Term upmove has made a temporary top at Wednesday's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2349 and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.2210, however, 1.2180/90 should remain intact due to near term loss of momentum and yield a much-needed rebound later.

On the upside, only above 1.2309 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk gain to 1.2325, then 1.2349 early next week.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan all household spending, coincident index, leading economic index.
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany industrial output, exports, imports, trade balance, current account, France consumer spending, current account, industrial output, trade balance, imports, exports, UK Halifax house prices, Italy unemployment rate, EU unemployment rate.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 08: Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Jan 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.94
Despite the greenback's fall to a fresh 9-1/2 month trough at 102.60 on Wednesday, subsequent rally to 103.95 yesterday and intra-day break above this level suggests recent decline has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger gain to 104.14/20 would be seen before prospect of a much-needed retreat due to overbought condition.

On the downside, only below 103.44 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk weakness to 103.20/25.

Market focus today is on release of U.S. jobs report at 13:30GMT.
Street forecasts for non-farm payrolls and average earnings mm are 71k and 0.2% vs previous readings of 245k and 0.3% respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Jan 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2200
Friday's break of previous 1.2210 sup to 1.2193 in post-NFP New York trading confirms recent uptrend has made a temporary top at Wednesday's fresh 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2349 and stronger correction twd 1.2153 is envisaged after consolidation.

On the upside, only above 1.2284 (NY high) signals pullback has possibly ended and yields stronger gain to 1.2309 later this week.

Data to be released today:
Japan market holiday, Australia retail sales, China PPI, CPI, EU Sentix index, and UK NIESR GDP estimate on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 11: Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Jan 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 104.11
Despite dollar's pullback from 104.08 to 103.61 in post-NFP Friday, subsequent rebound and intra-day break above said resistance to a near 1-month 104.21 high in Asia on renewed usd's strength suggests upmove from January's 9-1/2 month 102.60 trough has resumed and would extend to 104.53/57 after consolidation but 104.75 should limit upside.

On the downside, only below 103.61 would risk stronger retracement to 103.40/44, then 103.20/25.

U.S. calendar is empty today following Friday's blockbuster jobs report, however, we have Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaking in later New York session at 17:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Jan 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2161
The single currency's fall below Friday's low at 1.2193 to 1.2133 yesterday on usd's broad-based strength suggests decline from last Wednesday's fresh near 33-month peak at 1.2349 remains in progress and further weakness to 1.2106/10 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would prevent sharp move beyond and yield a much-needed correction.

On the upside, only above 1.2200 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.2225/30.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Japan current account, trade balance, Economy Watchers current, Economy Watchers outlook.
UK BRC retail sales, Italy retail sales.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 12: Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Jan 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 104.14
The greenback's resumption of upmove from last Wednesday's 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 to a near 5-week peak at 104.39 yesterday on usd's broad-based strength suggests price would head to 104.55/60, then 104.75 after consolidation, however, 104.90/00 should limit upside due to loss of momentum and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the downside, only below 103.61 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk weakness to 103.40/44.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Japan current account, trade balance, Economy Watchers current, Economy Watchers outlook.
UK BRC retail sales, Italy retail sales.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Jan 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2217
Despite the single currency's fall to 1.2133 on Monday, subsequent rally to 1.2216 today suggests the first leg of correction from January's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2349 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 1.2226/30, however, resistance at 1.2241/46 would remain intact and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 1.2178 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk weakness to 1.2133/38.

Pay attention to the release of EU industrial production mm and yy at 10:00GMT. Street forecasts are 0.2% and -3.3% vs previous readings of 2.1% and -3.8% respectively.
Elsewhere, ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak at the Reuters Next summit at 09:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 13: Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Jan 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.67
The greenback's selloff from 104.33 to 103.73 on usd's broad-based weakness, then to 103.53 in Asia today suggests upmove from last Wednesday's 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 has ended at 104.39 on Monday and consolidation with downside bias remains for a stronger retracement to 103.28 (61.8%), then 102.95/00, however, 102.72 should remain intact and yield another rebound later.

On the upside, only above 104.04/08 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk gain to 104.39 again, break would head to 104.57, then 104.75 before down.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Japan machine tool orders.
Germany wholesale price index, Italy industrial output, EU industrial production.
Canada leading index, and U.S. MBA mortgage applications, core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings, Federal budget.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 14: Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Jan 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 104.01
Despite the greenback's selloff from Monday's 4-week peak at 104.39 to 103.53 yesterday, subsequent strong rebound to 104.19 today on news of a larger U.S. aid package suggests the pullback has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for a re-test of said resistance, break would extend upmove from December's 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 to 104.57/60 later but 104.75/80 should remain intact.

On the downside, only below 103.53 would dampen bullishness and risk stronger retracement of aforesaid uptrend to 103.28, then 102.95/00.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Japan corporate goods price index, machinery orders.
UK RICS housing price balance, China exports, imports, trade balance, Germany full year GDP.
U.S. import price index, export price index, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Jan 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2152
Despite the single currency's resumption of decline from January's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2349 to 1.2112 yesterday, subsequent rally to 1.2178 in New York on dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggests a temporary low has possibly been made and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.2203/05, however, resistance at 1.2222 should remain intact.

On the downside, only below 1.2133 would revive bearishness for a re-test of 1.2112, break would risk one more fall to 1.2090/95 before prospect of correction.

Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand food price index, China house prices, Japan tertiary industry activity index, UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance.
France budget balance, CPI, CPI (EU norm), EU trade balance.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index, PPI, core PPI, retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, University of Michigan sentiment.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 15: Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Jan 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.68
The greenback's sharp retreat from 104.19 (Asia) to 103.57 on usd's broad-based weakness in late New York yesterday suggests choppy trading below Monday's 4-week peak at 104.39 would continue with downside bias, below Wednesday's reaction low at 103.53 would yield stronger retracement of upmove from December's 9-1/2 month trough at 102.60 to 103.20/25, then 102.95 later.

On the upside, only above 104.19 would abort daily bearishness and risk re-test of 104.39, break would head to 104.57/60 before prospect of correction.

Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand food price index, China house prices, Japan tertiary industry activity index, UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance.
France budget balance, CPI, CPI (EU norm), EU trade balance.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index, PPI, core PPI, retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, University of Michigan sentiment.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Jan 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2074
Euro's resumption of recent decline from Jan's near 33-month peak of 1.2349 to a 1-month 1.2075 low Friday, then intra-day brief break there suggests downside bias remains for further weakness after consolidation, however, near term oversold condition should keep price above 1.2011 today.

On the upside, only above 1.2133 signals temporary low is made and may risk stronger recovery towards 1.2178 before prospect of another fall later this week.

Eco. data from euro area countries is very light with Iatlay's CPI being only data due out at 09:00GMT. There is a Eurogroup meeting at 10:00GMT where ECB President Lagarde and ECB executive board member Panetta will participate.
Later, there is EU FinMin meeting n release of Buba monthly report.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 19: Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Jan 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.77
Despite the greenback's rebound from last Thursday's low at 103.57 to 103.93 today, subsequent retreat suggests further choppy trading below January's 6-week peak at 104.39 would continue with downside bias and below last Wednesday's reaction low at 103.53 would yield stronger retracement of recent upmove to 103.40/44, however, support at 102.95 should remain intact and yield recovery.

On the upside, only above 104.19 would dampen daily bearishness and risk re-test of 104.39, break would extend upmove to 104.57/60.

No U.S. ecoi. data is due out today as most U.S. financial markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Jan 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2088
Despite euro's resumption of recent decline to a 6-week trough of 1.2055 in European morning on Monday, subsequent rebound suggests temporary low is made and range trading is in store initially before prospect of another fall, however, loss of downward momentum is likely to keep price above 1.2011 (2020 high, now sup).

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2112 would risk stronger correction but reckon 1.2178 res should cap upside.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand NZIER confidence, retail sales, GDT price index.
Germany CPI, HICP, ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, Swiss producer and import price index, Italy trade balance, EU current account, construction output, ZEW survey expectation, UK labour productivity, and Canada manufacturing sales, wholesale trade.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 19: Daily Recommendatioons on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Jan 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 104.01
Dollar's intra-day jump from 103.66 at Asian open to 104.08 on risk-on trading suggests pullback from January's 4-week high at 104.39 has ended earlier at 103.53 last Wednesday and choppy sideways swings would be seen before upmove from 2021 9-1/2 month trough of 102.60 resumes and heads to 104.52/57 but 104.74/75 may hold on first testing.

On the downside, only below 103.62/66 would risk re-test of 103.53, break may extend weakness to 103.17/22.

U.S. traders will return later today after a long weekend holiday n although no U.S. eco. data is due out today, market will pay attention to the prepared speech as well as comments by ex-Fed Chief Janet Yellen when she testifies before the Senate Finance Committee on her confirmation hearing to become the next U.S. Treasury Secretary around 15:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Jan 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2142
Yesterday's rally to 1.2144 (New York) due to renewed risk-on sentiment confirms euro's recent decline from January's near 33-month peak at 1.2349 has made a temporary low at Monday's 6-week trough at 1.2055, near term overbought condition is likely to limit gain to 1.2175/78 and yield retreat later today.

On the downside, a daily close below New York low at 1.2116 would be 1st signal recovery has ended, then weakness to 1.2086 and re-test of 1.2055 would follow.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia consumer sentiment.
Germany producer prices, UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output prices, DCLG house price index, EU HICP, core HICP.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, redbook, NAHB housing index, and Canada CPI, core CPI, Bank of Canada interest rate decision.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 20: Daily Recommendatioons on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Jan 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.79
Despite the greenback's rebound from Monday's low at 103.64 to 104.08 yesterday, subsequent retreat suggests price would continue to gyrate inside recent 104.39-103.53 range and as long as said lower level remains intact, bullishness remains and above 104.19 is needed to bring a re-test of January's 6-week peak at 104.39 later.

On the downside, only below 103.53 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of recent upmove to 103.20/22, then 102.95/00.

On the eco. data front, we only have 2nd-tier U.S. data due out in New York morning, however, traders will take cue from Joe Biden's inauguration speech as he swear in to become the 46th president of U.S.A., the inauguration ceremony will begin around 12:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Jan 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2127
Despite yesterday's decline from 1.2157 (Europe) to as low as 1.2077 in New York, euro's intra-day rebound in Asia due to renewed risk sentiment suggests further choppy swings above Mon's 6-week trough at 1.2055 would continue ahead of key ECB's monetary policy announcement and then post-ECB presser.

As long as 1.2157 holds, downside bias remains, below 1.2077 would yield re-test of 1.2055 but loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.2011.
A break above 1.2157 would risk stronger retracement of recent fall from Jan's 1.2349 peak to 1.2178 and possibly towards 1.2222 next week.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Bank of Japan interest rate decision, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, France business climat.
Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, UK CBI trends orders, EU ECB refinancing rate, ECB deposit rate, consumer confidence.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and Canada ADP employment change, new housing price index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 21: Daily Recommendatioons on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Jan 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.55
The greenback's break below last Wednesday's low at 103.53 to 103.34 in Asia today on drop in U.S. Treasury yields suggests decline from last week's high at 104.39 to retrace upmove from January's 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 has finally resumed and further weakness to 102.95 would be seen, however, aforesaid bottom would hold on 1st testing and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 104.08 would indicate a temporary trough has been made and risk stronger correction to 104.19, then 104.39 early next week.

On the data front, U.S. will later release weekly initial jobless claims plus other data (pls refer to our EI page for details).

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Jan 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2167
Euro's break of Wed's 1.2157 high to 1.2173 in post-ECB New York morning yesterday suggests recent decline from January's near 33-month peak at 1.2349 has made a low earlier at Monday's 6-week trough of 1.2055 and stronger retracement towards 1.2222 objective is envisaged before retreat due to loss of upward momentum.

On the downside, a daily close below New York low at 1.2137 would be the 1st signal correction has ended, then risk would shift to the downside for weakness to 1.2116, then towards 1.2077 on Monday.

Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, CPI, Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, retail sales, Japan nationwide core CPI, nationwide CPI, Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI.
UK Gfk consumer confidence, PSNB, PSNCR, retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
Canada retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, existing home sales.