AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 09: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Dec 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 104.22
Despite the greenback's strong rebound from last Thursday's low at 103.68 to 104.31 Monday, subsequent retreat to 103.93 suggests price would continue to gyrate inside recent broad range of 103.66-104.66 and yesterday's recovery from 103.96 would head back to 104.31, then 104.53/54 later, however, indicated upper level would remain intact.

On the downside, only below 103.66 would indicate decline from November's peak at 105.67 has finally resumed and head to 103.18 (November) later.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia consumer sentiment, Japan machinery orders, machine tool orders, China PPI, CPI.
Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, JOLTS job openings, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, and Canada Bank of Canada interest rate decision.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2081
Although yesterday's break of Mon's 1.2079 low to 1.2060 due to broad-based usd's rebound in New York suggests recent uptrend has made a temporary top at last Fri's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2177, near term oversold condition would keep price above 1.2011 ahead of ECB rate decision and bring rebound.

On the upside, only a daily close above Wed's 1.2147 top signals correction is over and outlook would turn bullish for re-test of 1.2177 later.

Ahead of ECB's monetary policy announcement at 12:45GMT n post-ECB press conference at 13:30GMT, we have France's industrial output at 07:45GMT. The EU Council will hold a 2-day meeting starting today, one of the key agendas is to brief member states the state of play in latest Brexit talks.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 10: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Dec 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 104.55
Despite the greenback's selloff from last Wednesday's high at 103.68 last Thursday, subsequent strong rebound to 104.40 yesterday and intra-day break above this level suggests choppy trading with mild upside bias would be seen, however, as price is expected to be confined inside recent 103.66-104.75 range, reckon indicated upper level would remain intact and yield retreat later.

On the downside, only below 104.06 would bring weakness to 103.93, then 103.75 but support at 103.66 should hold and yield recovery.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand retail sales, Japan corporate goods price.
UK RICS housing price balance, GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate, France industrial output, EU ECB refinancing rate decision, ECB deposit rate decision.
U.S. core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Federal budget.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2144
Euro's erratic rise to 1.2158 in post-ECB New York trading on Thursday suggests correction from last Fri's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2177 has ended earlier at 1.2060 (Wed) and above said res would extend recent uptrend towards projected target at 1.2216 early next week.

Only below 1.2082 'prolongs' choppy sideways swings below 1.2177 and may risk re-test of 1.2060, break, 1.2041.

Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, food price index.
Germany CPI, HICP, Italy industrial output, Canada capacity utilization.
U.S. PPI, core PPI, University of Michigan sentiment.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 11: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Dec 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 104.05
Despite dollar's resumption of upmove from last Thursday's 103.68 to 104.57 in Europe yesterday, subsequent retreat and intra-day fall to 103.93 in Asia suggests further choppy trading inside recent 103.66-104.75 range would continue, however, reckon said lower level should hold and yield another bounce.

On the upside, only above 104.57 would bring re-test of 104.75, where break would head to 105.13/15.

Data to be released later :
Germany CPI, HICP, Italy industrial output, Canada capacity utilization.
U.S. PPI, core PPI, University of Michigan sentiment.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2125
Despite euro's strg rebound from last week's low of 1.2060 (Wed) to 1.2162 on Fri, subsequent decline to 1.2106 in NY suggests further volatile sideways swings below December's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2177 would continue today and intra-day retreat signals downside bias remains but 1.2060 should contain weakness and yield another rise later today or tomorrow.

Above 1.2162/66 res would encourage for re-test of 1.2177, then resumption of recent uptrend to 1.2200/10.

The only eco. data due out is EU's industrial production. We have ECB members Panetta n Schnabel speaking at 09:45GMT n 13:30GMT respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 14: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Dec 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.95
The greenback's selloff from last THursday's high at 104.57 to 103.83 Friday suggests choppy trading inside recent 103.66-104.75 range would continue with downside bias and marginal weakness from here is likely to be seen, however, indicated lower level would remain intact and yield another rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above 104.27 would dampen daily bearishness and risk stronger gain to 104.57/60 but resistance at 104.75 should remain intact.

Data to be released later today :
Japan Tankan big manufacturing index, Tankan big non-manufacturing index, Tankan small manufacturing index, Tankan small non-manufacturing index, tertiary industry activity, industrial output, capacity utilization, China house price.
UK Rightmove house price and EU industrial production on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec Dec 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2158
Although euro's brief retreat on Mon after re-testing previous Dec's fresh 2-1/2 year peak of 1.2177 suggests further choppy sideways swings may continue, as long as 1.2082 holds, upside bias remains, above 1.2177 would encourage for subsequent headway twd 1.2216.

Only below 1.2082 risks weakness to last week's low at 1.2060, possibly, 1.2041.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details. We also have ECB board members Rehn n Lane speaking at 09:00GMT n 14:05GMT respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 15: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Dec 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 104.10
Despite the greenback's break of previous support at 103.66 to 103.52 after 3 weeks of broad consolidation, subsequent strong rebound to 104.10 in New York, then 104.14 today suggests recent decline from 105.67 (Nov) has made a temporary low there and choppy trading above November's 7-1/2 month bottom at 103.18 would continue with mild upside bias, however, resistance at 104.57 should remain intact.

On the downside, only below 103.52 would revive bearishness for weakness to 103.37, below would bring a re-test of aforesaid 103.18 bottom later.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK Claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Swiss producer and import price index, France CPI (EU norm), CPI, Italy CPI, CPI (EU norm), trade balance, Canada housing starts, manufacturing sales.
U.S. NY Fed manufacturing index, import prices, export prices, redbook, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2150
Despite yesterday's choppy sideways swings after Mon's retreat from 1.2177 to 1.2122 (New York low Tuesday), as long as sup area at 1.2106/16 holds, upside bias remains, above said 2-1/2 year high at 1.2177 would encourage for resumption of uptrend to 1.2210/20 later.

On the downside, only a daily close below said sup dampens bullishness and risks stronger retracement towards 1.2060 before prospect of rebound.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand current account, Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI.
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output prices, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, DCLG house price index, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, construction output, trade balance, labour costs, Canada CPI, wholesale trade.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, business inventories, NAHB housing market index, Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 16: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Dec 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.41
The greenback's intra-day break below Monday's 1-month bottom at 103.52 suggests recent upmove remains in progress and price is now en route to November's 7-1/2 month trough at 103.18 after consolidation, break there would extend Medium Term downtrend to 102.90/00, however, loss of momentum would prevent steep fall below there and risk would increase for a much-needed correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 103.83 (previous support) would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 104.14.

On the data front, U.S. will release a slew of economic indicators, pls refer to our EI page for details.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2207
As euro has risen after yesterday's stronger-than-expected retreat from a fresh 2-1/2 year high of 1.2211 (Europe) to 1.2126 in post-FOMC New York, upside bias is retained, however, loss of upward momentum would prevent strong gain to 1.2255/60.

Only below 1.2146 'prolongs' choppy consolidation and risks weakness to 1.2122/26, break would extend to 1.2106.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand GDP, Australia employment change, unemployment rate.
Swiss trade balance, imports, imports, SNB interest rate decision, France business climate, EU HICP, core HICP, UK BoE interest rate decision, BoE asset purchase program, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE vote unchanged, BoE vote cut.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Philadelphia Federal manufacturing index, KC Fed manufacturing index, and Canada new house price index, ADP employment change.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 17: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Dec 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.19
Despite yesterday's rebound from European low at 103.27 to 103.91 in post-FOMC trading, subsequent selloff and intra-day break below November's 7-1/2 month bottom at 103.18 signals Medium Term downtrend has finally resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for further weakness to 102.70/75, however, 102.40/50 should remain intact due to loss of momentum and yield a much-needed correction.

On the upside, only above 103.91 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 104.14 before prospect of retreat.

U.S. will later release a slew of economic data, please refer to our EI page for details. Pay attention to weekly jobless claims n continued jobless claims.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2252
Euro's rally above Wed's 1.2211 high (now sup) to a fresh 2-1/2 year peak of 1.2273 in New York due to continued usd's weakness on risk appetite suggests price would head to 1.2315/25 after consolidation, however, near term loss of upward momentum is likely to prevent strong gain today and yield a much-needed minor correction later.

Only below 1.2211 confirms temporary top is made and yields stronger retracement to 1.2177.

Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Japan nationwide core CPI, nationwide CPI, BoJ interest rate decision.
UK GfK consumer confidence, retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, CBI trends orders, Germany producer prices, wholesale price index, Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, EU current account, Italy producer prices.
U.S. current account, leading index change, and Canada new housing price index, retail sales, retail sales ex-autos.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 18: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Dec 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.57
Despite the greenback's selloff yesterday on usd's continued weakness and fall below November's 7-1/2 month trough at 103.18 to 102.88 in New York, subsequent strong rebound suggests a temporary low has been made and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 103.91, above would add credence to this view and extend to 104.14 before prospect of a retreat early next week.

On the downside, only below 103.15/20 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk re-test of 102.88, break is needed to extend MT decline to 102.60/65.

T.G.I.F., U.S will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details. We have Fed's Evans n Brainard speaking at 16:00GMT n 16:10GMT respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2220
Euro's intra-day weakness to 1.2205 due to broad-based rebound in usd suggests recent uptrend has made a temporary top at Thursday's fresh 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2273 and further weakness can't be ruled out, near term oversold condition may keep price above 1.2177 (previous res, now sup).

On the upside, a firm rise above 1.2258/59 is needed to signal pullback has ended and bring re-test of 1.2273, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.2310/15 today.

Data to be released today:
New Zealand business outlook, business activities.
Italy trade balance, UK CBI distributive trades.
U.S. Chicago Fed National activity and EU consumer confidence on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 21: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Dec 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.57
The greenback's rally from last Thursday's 9-month bottom at 102.88 to 103.59 Friday and intra-day break above this level on media news of a floor at 100 for the yen suggests Medium Term downtrend has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen for stronger retracement to 104.14, however, resistance at 104.57 should remain intact.

On the downside, only below 103.17 would indicate the recovery has possibly ended and risk re-test of aforesaid low, break would extend to 102.40/50 later this week.

The economic calendar is very light in the U.S. with Chicago Fed National Activity index being the only data due out.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2237
Despite yesterday's intra-day erratic fall from 1.2226 (Europe) to 1.2131 on broad-based safe-haven usd buying due to selloff in global stocks, subsequent rally back to as high as 1.2253 in New York on rebound in U.S. stocks suggests pullback from Thursday's fresh 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2273 has ended and resumption of medium-term uptrend to 1.2300/10 is envisaged after consolidation.

On the downside, only below 1.2200/05 'prolongs' volatile trading below 1.2273 and may risk weakness towards 1.2169 but 1.2131 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia retail sales.
Germany GfK consumer sentiment, UK GDP, current account, PSNB, PSNCR, Canada average weekly earnings.
U.S. GDP, PCE, core PCE, redbook, retail sales, existing homes sales, Richmond Fed manufacturing.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 22: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Dec 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.39
Despite the greenback's rally from last Thursday's 9-month bottom at 102.88 to 103.88 yesterday on dlr's broad-based strength due to risk-averse buying in usd, subsequent sharp retreat to 103.29 at New York close due to a rebound in U.S. stocks suggests aforesaid correction has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 103.00, then 102.88 again.

On the upside, only above 103.88 would revive daily bullishness for stronger retracement of Medium Term decline to 104.14 later this week.

U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details. Pay particular attention to final Q3 GDP n core PCE at 13:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2167
Despite euro's strong rebound from 1.2131 (Mon) to 1.2256 in Europe yesterday, subsequent selloff to 1.2153 as the greenback caught a bid in New York after upbeat U.S. data suggests further choppy trading below last Thursday's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2273 would continue with downside bias, below 1.2131 needed to bring stronger correction to 1.2106, then 1.2180/85.

On the upside, only above 1.2256 aborts bearishness and risks re-test of 1.2273, break, 1.2290/00.

On the eco. calendar n the euro area countries, Germany will kick off with import prices, then France's producer prices n Italy's business n consumer confidence.