AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 22: Daily Recommendatioons on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Jan 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.67
Despite the greenback's break below last Wednesday's low at 103.53 to 103.33 ahead of New York open yesterday due to a drop in U.S. Treasury yields, intra-day stronger-than-expected rebound on risk-averse buying in usd suggests decline from last Monday's 4-week peak at 104.39 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for retracement to 104.08/10.

On the downside, only below 103.33 would revive bearishness for weakness to 102.95/00 but December's 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 should hold on 1st testing.

T.G.I.F., on the data front, today is PMI day, U.S. will later release Markit mfg n services PMIs at 14:45GMT n then existing home

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Jan 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2172
Euro's 3-legged rise from last Monday's 6-week trough at 1.2055 to as high as 1.2190 Fri suggests recent decline from January's 1.2349 peak has made a temporary low and marginal gain is envisaged, however, loss of upward momentum would cap price below res at 1.2222.

A daily close below 1.2152 (Fri low) would be the 1st signal correction has ended, then outlook would turn bearish for weakness towards 1.2077 later.

Data to be released today:
Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, EU business sentiment, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
U.S. national activity index on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 25: Daily Recommendatioons on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Jan 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.76
Despite the greenback's break below previous support at 103.53 to 103.33 last Thursday due to a drop in U.S. Treasury yields, subsequent stronger-than-expected rebound on risk-averse buying in usd to 103.88 Friday suggests decline from last Monday's 4-week peak at 104.39 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for retracement to 104.08/10.

On the downside, only below 103.33 would revive bearishness for weakness to 102.95/00 but December's 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 should hold on 1st testing.

On the data front, the only eco. data due out from the U.S. is Dallas Fed mfg business indices at 15:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Jan 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2136
Euro's decline from 1.2183 to 1.2117 on weak German Ifo data yesterday suggests early correction from last Monday's 6-week bottom at 1.2055 has possibly ended at 1.2190 (Friday), a daily close below 1.2117 would add credence to this view and head back to 1.2077, then re-test of 1.2055 later this week.

On the upside, only above 1.2190 risks stronger retracement towards 1.2222 before prospect of decline due to loss of upward momentum.

After Monday's market-moving Ifo data, no eco. indicators are due out from the euro area countries today, traders will have to take cue from movements in Asian n European stocks plus U.S. stocks.
We have a number of ECB members scheduled to speak during the day, please refer to EI page for details.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 26: Daily Recommendatioons on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Jan 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.77
Despite the greenback's break below previous support at 103.53 to 103.33 last Thursday due to a drop in U.S. Treasury yields, subsequent stronger-than-expected rebound on risk-averse buying in usd to 103.93 yesterday suggests decline from last Monday's 4-week peak at 104.39 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for retracement to 104.08/10.

On the downside, only below 103.33 would revive bearishness for weakness to 102.95/00 but December's 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 should hold on 1st testing.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia market holiday.
UK claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, CBI distributive trades.
U.S. redbook, monthly home price, Case-Shiller home price index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Jan 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2163
Euro's intra-day rally on Tuesday from 1.2108 to 1.2175 due to renewed usd's weakness on return of risk appetite suggests choppy trading above last Mon's 6-week trough at 1.2055 would continue with upside bias, above 1.2190 (Friday's high) would bring stronger retracement of early decline from January's near 33-month peak at 1.2349 to 1.2222 but reckon 1.2284 should remain intact.

On the downside, below 1.2108 anytime signals correction has ended, then weakness to 1.2077 would be seen next.

On the data front, we have German Gfk consumer confidence, then France's consumer confidence n Italy's trade balance. ECB's chief economist will speak at conference at 15:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 27: Daily Recommendatioons on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Jan 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.72
Despite the greenback's break below previous support at 103.53 to 103.33 last Thursday due to a drop in U.S. Treasury yields, subsequent stronger-than-expected rebound on risk-averse buying in usd to 103.93 Monday suggests decline from last Monday's 4-week peak at 104.39 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for retracement to 104.08/10.

On the downside, only below 103.33 would revive bearishness for weakness to 102.95/00 but December's 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 should hold on 1st testing.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia Westpac leading index, NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, CPI, Japan coincident index, leading economic index.
Germany GfK consumer sentiment, France consumer confidence, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, durable goods, durables ex-transportation, durables ex-defense, Fed interest rate decision.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Jan 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2097
Euro's intra-day selloff from 1.2169 (Asia) to as low as 1.2058 on ECB Knot's euro-bearish comments suggests early correction fm last Mon's 6-week trough at 1.2055 has ended at 1.2190 (Fri) and as price has fallen in post-FOMC New York, bearishness remains and below 1.2055 would extend recent decline from Jan's near 33-month peak at 1.2349 twd 1.2011.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2128 'prolongs' volatile swings above 1.2055 and may risk another rise twd 1.2190.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data (pls refer to EI page for details).

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Jan 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 104.33
Despite the greenback's break below previous support at 103.53 to 103.33 last Thursday due to a drop in U.S. Treasury yields, subsequent rally to 103.93 Monday on risk-averse buying in usd to 103.93 Monday and yesterday's break above this level to 104.36 today confirms decline from last Monday's 4-week peak at 104.39 has ended and re-test of said resistance would be seen.

On the downside, only below 103.33 would revive bearishness for weakness to 102.95/00 but December's 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 should hold on 1st testing.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Japan retail sales, Australia export prices, import prices.
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP.
U.S. building permits, GDP, GDP deflator, core PCE price index, PCE price index, trade balance, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, leading index, new home sales, KC Fed manufacturing index.
Canada building permits, average weekly earnings.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Jan 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2110
Although euro's erratic rise from this week's low at 1.2058 (Wednesday) to 1.2141 in New York morning yesterday due to rally in U.S. stocks following downbeat U.S. data suggests further volatile swings above last week's trough at 1.2055 would continue, intraday retreat in tandem with U.S. stock futures would bring range trading.

Below Thursday's 1.2080 low would yield re-test of 1.2055, break there extend recent fall from Jauarty's 1.2349 peak towards 1.2011 whilst above 1.2141 may head back towards 1.2175 but 1.2190 res should cap upside.

U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to weekly jobless claims and continued jobless claims to get the feel of the latest condition of the labour market.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 29: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Jan 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 104.57

The greenback's rise to a 1-1/2 month peak at 104.46 yesterday and intra-day break above there on risk-averse buying of usd due to fall in U.S. stock futures suggests upmove from January's 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 has once again resumed and further gain to 104.75/80 would be seen, however, 105.13 should limit upside due to loss of upward momentum and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 103.93 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 103.56 early next week.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan Tokyo core CPI, Tokyo CPI, unemployment rate, industrial output, consumer confidence, construction orders, housing starts, Australia PPI.
France consumer spending, GDP, producer prices, Germany import prices, unemployment change, unemployment rate, GDP, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy producer prices.
Canada GDP, producer prices, budget balance and U.S. employment wages, employment costs, personal income, personal spending, core PCE price index, PCE price index, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, pending home sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Feb 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2124
Euro's erratic rise last week from 1.2058 (Wednesday) to 1.2155 on Friday suggests further volatile swings above January's 6-week trough at 1.2055 would continue and as long as Friday's 1.2094 low holds, marginal gain can't be ruled out, however, reckon pivotal res at 1.2190 should cap upside n yield decline later.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.2094 would bring weakness towards 1.2055, break would extend recent decline towards 1.2011.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data in European morning, pls refer to our EI page for details and pay attention to German retail sales, then mfg PMI releases from Italy, France, Germany and the EU.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 01: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Feb 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 104.87
The greenback's rise to a near 2-1/2 month peak at 104.94 last Friday on active risk-averse buying of usd due to fall in U.S. stock futures suggests upmove from January's 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 has once again resumed and further gain to 105.13 would be seen, however, 105.47 should limit upside due to loss of upward momentum and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 103.93 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 103.56 later this week.

Data to be released today :
Australia AIG manufacturing index, ANZ job advertisements, Japan Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI, China Caixin manufacturing PMI.
Germany retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, France budget Markit manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, UK Markit manufacturing PMI.
Canada Markit manufacturing PMI, and U.S. labor costs, productivity, Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Feb 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2078
Euro's selloff on Monday from 1.2144 to as low as 1.2056 suggests early correction from January's 1.2055 low has ended, below would extend recent fall from January's near 33-month peak at 1.2549 towards 1.2011 before prospect of a recovery due to loss of near term downward momentum.

Only above 1.2094/99 'prolongs' volatile swings above 1.2055 and may risk another rise towards 1.2144 but reckon 1.2155 may cap upside.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia RBA interest rate decision, New Zealand GDT price index
UK nationwide house price, France budget balance, CPI (EU norm), CPI, Italy GDP, EU GDP.
U.S. redbook, ISM New York index, labor costs, productivity.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 02: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Feb 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 104.92
The greenback's rise to a near 2-1/2 month peak at 105.03 yesterday on active risk-averse buying of usd due to fall in U.S. stock futures suggests upmove from January's 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 has once again resumed and further gain to 105.47 would be seen, however, 105.67 should limit upside due to loss of upward momentum and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 104.62 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 103.93 later this week.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today as well 3 Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York afternoon (please see EI section for details).

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Feb 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2045
Despite yesterday's resumption of recent decline from January's near 33-month peak at 1.2349 to a 2-month bottom of 1.2011 in New York, subsequent rebound in tandem with rally in US stocks suggests temporary low is made, a daily close above 1.2055 (January low, now res) is needed to bring stronger retracement to 1.2085/95 but 1.2155 should remain intact this week.

Below 1.2011 would extend marginal weakness, however, loss of downward momentum is expected to keep price above 1.1976 and bring correction later.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia AIG construction index, building permits, New Zealand unemployment rate, employment change, labour cost index, Japan Jibun Bank services PMI, China Caixin services PMI.
Italy Markit services PMI, CPI, CPI (EU norm), France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, HICP, core HICP, producer price index, UK Markit services PMI.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, labor costs, productivity, ADP employment change, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 03: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Feb 2021 09:30GMT

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Feb 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.04
The greenback's rise to an 11-week peak at 105.17 yesterday on usd's continued strength suggests upmove from January's 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 would head to resistance at 105.47 after consolidation, however, daily resistance at 105.67 would limit upside due to loss of momentum and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the downside, only a daily close below 104.62 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 104.18/20.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, pay attention to ADP private payrolls n services PMI.
Again, a number of Fed officials are scheduled to speak later today, please refer to our EI page for details.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Feb 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2038 Despite Wed's marginal weakness to a fresh 2-month trough of 1.2003 (Reuters) in New York morning , failure to penetrate psychological 1.2000 handle and subsequent rebound suggests recent decline has made a temporary low and range trading is in store, above 1.2049/55 res would bring stronger gain towards 1.2087 before retreat.

Only below 1.2000 risks one more fall, however, weakening of downward momentum is likely to keep price above 1.1976 and yield a much-needed correction later today or tomorrow.

Eco. data in the euro area countries is pretty thin today with EU's Dec retail sales being the only data due out.
We also have some ECB officials scheduled to speak later (please refer to EI page for details).

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 04: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Feb 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.17
The greenback's rise to an 11-week peak at 105.17 on Tuesday and intra-day break above this level on usd's continued strength suggests upmove from January's 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 would head to resistance at 105.47 after consolidation, however, daily resistance at 105.67 would limit upside due to loss of momentum and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the downside, only a daily close below 104.62 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 104.18/20.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand building permits, Australia trade balance, imports, exports.
Swiss consumer confidence, UK Markit construction PMI, BoE interest rate decision, BoE asset purchase programme, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, EU retail sales.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, labor costs, productivity, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transportation,.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Feb 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1967
Yesterday's firm break of 'psychological' 1.2000 handle and then weakness to a fresh 2-month low at 1.1958 due to continued usd's strength suggests recent decline from Jan's 1.2349 high remains in force, however, oversold condition is expected to keep price above 1.1898/03 and yield a much-needed minor correction early next week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2000 signals temporary bottom is in place and risks stronger retracement to 1.2040/50.

Ahead of U.S. jobs report, the euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data (please refer to EI page for details) n pay attention to German industrial orders, if actual reading comes in weaker than forecast, this will give traders another reason for more euro bashing but beware of intra-day rebound due to pre-NFP short covering.