AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Dec 23: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 23 Dec 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.44
Despite dollar's resumption of medium term decline from March's high at 111.71 to a 9-month trough of 102.88 last Thursday, subsequent rise to 103.88 Monday suggests temporary low is made and yesterday's choppy swings would bring range trading, reckon 103.20/29 should contain downside and yield another rise.

Above 103.88/91 would extend to 104.10/14 but 104.30/40 should remain intact.
Below 103.20 risks 102.88.

On the data front, U.S. has a heavy calendar, please refer to our EI page for details
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Dec 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 24 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2198
Although euro's early rally from 1.2131 to 1.2253 on Monday, then 1.2256 (Tuesday) signals correction from December's fresh 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2273 has ended, subsequent retreat to 1.2153 and then yesterday's cable-led bounce to 1.2220 suggests further daily sideways swings inside 1.2273-1.2131 range would continue, probably for rest of this week.

Wednesday's cable-led usd's weakness suggests upside bias remains today but only a daily close above 1.2256 would bring re-test of 1.2273, then 1.2300/10.
Only below 1.2153 risks re-test of 1.2131, break yields stronger retracement to 1.2100/05.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia market holiday.
Germany market holiday and Canada building permits.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Dec 24: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 24 Dec 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.58
Dollar's retreat from 103.88 to 103.29 on Monday suggests first leg of correction from last Thursday's 9-month trough at 102.88 has ended and subsequent sideways swings would be seen before prospect of another rise, above 103.88/91 would extend to 104.10/14.

On the downside, only below 103.00/05 may risk re-test of 102.88

Data release on Thursday :
Canada building permits.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Dec 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 28 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2189
Despite euro's strong rebound last week from 1.2131 to as high as 1.2256 (Tue), subsequent retreat suggests further volatile swings below Dec's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2273 would continue, however, as long as 1.2131 holds, upside bias remains, above 1.2256 would encourage for re-test of 1.2273.

Only below 1.2131 shifts risk to the downside for a stronger correction to 1.2106 but 1.2085/90 should contain weakness.

No eco. data is due out from the euro area countries today.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Dec 28: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 28 Dec 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.42
Although dollar's retreat from last Thursday's high at 103.76 suggests further choppy trading inside recent range of 102.88-103.88 would continue with mild downside bias and marginal weakness is likely to be seen, reckon 103.10/20 would remain intact and yield another rebound, above 103.88 is needed to yield stronger retracement of recent fall to 104.14 later this week.

On the downside, only below 102.88 would revive bearishness for stronger weakness to 102.40/50, then 101.90/00 before prospect of rebound.

U.S. markets are open later today n eco. calendar is pretty thin with Dallas Fed mfg business index the only dat due out at 15:30GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Dec 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 29 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2226
Despite euro's initial gain to 1.2250 in European morning on Monday, subsequent strong retreat to 1.2192 ahead of New York open suggests further volatile swings below Dec's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2273 would continue with downside bias, however, reckon 1.2131 (last week's reaction low on Monday) should remain intact and yield another rise later this week.

A daily close above 1.2250 would encourage for resumption of recent uptrend to projected target at 1.2305.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
U.S. redbook and CaseShiller home price.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Dec 29: Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 29 Dec 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.61
Despite the greenback's 1-tick break above last Monday's high at 103.88 to 103.89 yesterday, subsequent retreat suggests correction from December's 9-month bottom at 102.88 has possibly ended there and consolidation with downside bias would be seen for weakness to 103.26, below would confirm this view and yield re-test of aforesaid low later this week.

On the upside, only above 103.89 would dampen daily bearishness and risk stronger retracement of Medium Term decline to 104.10/14.

On the data front, U.S. will later release some second-tier eco. indicators (please refer to our EI page for details).
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Dec 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2290
Euro's intra-day firm break above Tue's fresh 2-1/2 year high at 1.2275 (New York) confirms medium-tern uptrend from 2020 bottom at 1.0637 (march) remains in progress, however, near term overbought condition is likely to cap price below projected res at 1.2330/40 today and risk has increased for a correction to take place later today or tomorrow.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.2237 signals temporary top is in place and yields stronger retracement towards 1.2092.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Germany retail sales, UK nationwide house price, Swiss KOF indicator, investor sentiment.
U.S. trade balance, wholesale inventories, Chicago PMI, pending home sales.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Dec 30: Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 30 Dec 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.33
Despite the greenback's 1-tick break above last Monday's high at 103.88 to 103.89 Monday, subsequent retreat suggests correction from December's 9-month bottom at 102.88 has possibly ended there and consolidation with downside bias would be seen for weakness to 103.26, below would confirm this view and yield re-test of aforesaid low later this week.

On the upside, only above 103.89 would dampen daily bearishness and risk stronger retracement of Medium Term decline to 104.10/14.

U.S. will later release a slew of economic data in NY morning, pls refer to our Economic Indicator page for details.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderF Dec 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 31 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2306
Yesterday's gain to a 33-month high of 1.2309 (New York) on renewed usd's broad-based weakness suggests euro's medium-term uptrend from 2020 bottom at 1.0637 (March) would head to 1.2345/55, however, near term weakening of upward momentum is expected to cap price below 1.2390/00.

On the downside, only below 1.2253 (European low Wednesday) may risk stronger retracement towatds 1.2192.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan market holiday, China NBS non-manufacturing PMI, NBS manufacturing PMI.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Dec 31: Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 31 Dec 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.13
Despite the greenback's 1-tick break above last Monday's high at 103.88 to 103.89 Monday, subsequent retreat to 102.97 yesterday on usd's broad-based weakness suggests correction from December's 9-month bottom at 102.88 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias would be seen for a re-test of said support, break would extend Medium Term4 decline to 102.50/60 before prospect of rebound.

On the upside, only above 103.89 would dampen daily bearishness and risk stronger retracement of MT decline to 104.10/14.

On the last trading day of this pandemic 2020 year, U.S. will later release the usual weekly jobless claims, continued jobless claims which may move price a bit if actual readings deviate greatly from street forecast, however, market's mentality is to sell dlr on rebound.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Jan 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 04 Jan 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2242
The single currency's selloff from last Wednesday's fresh 33-month peak at 1.2309 to 1.2210 Thursday suggests Medium Term upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.2195, then 1.2160/65, however, support at 1.2131 should remain intact and yield a much-needed rebound later.

On the upside, only above 1.2275 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended and risk stronger gain to 1.2300/05 would be seen but 1.2309 may hold on 1st testing.

There is a slew of manufacturing PMIs to be released from the eurozone today.
Pay particular attention to Germany's at 08:55GMT and EU's at 09:00GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Jan 04: Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 04 Jan 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 102.88
The greenback's intra-day break below December's 9-month trough at 102.88 signals MT decline has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 102.50/60, however, support at 102.17/20 should remain intact due to oversold condition and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 103.31/35 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 103.50/60.

U.S. will release its final reading of December's manufacturing PMI at 14:45GMT. Elsewhere, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is scheduled to speak on the economic impacts of Covid-19 before the ASSA virtual annual meeting at 15:00GMT whereas Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will talk about economic prospects and policies after Covid-19 at the same event.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Jan 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 05 Jan 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2256
Despite euro's re-test of last Wednesday's fresh 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2309 in New York yesterday, subsequent sharp retreat suggests Medium Term upmove is not ready to resume yet and choppy trading below there would continue with mild downside bias, however, last Thursday's reaction low at 1.2210 should remain intact and yield another rebound later.

On the upside, only above 1.2309 would revive bullishness for one more rise to 1.2334/40, then 1.2355/60 before prospect of a much-needed correction.

Pay attention to the release of Germany unemployment change and unemployment data at 08:55GMT. Street forecasts are 10k and 6.1% vs previous readings of -39k and 6.1% respectively.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Jan 05: Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 05 Jan 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 102.94
The greenback's break below December's 9-month trough at 102.88 to 102.72 yesterday signals MT decline has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 102.50/60, however, support at 102.17/20 should remain intact due to over sold condition and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 103.31/35 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 103.50/60.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia ANZ job advertisements, New Zealand GDT price index.
Italy market holiday, Germany retail sales, unemployment change, unemployment rate, Swiss CPI, .
Canada producer prices, and U.S. redbook, ISM New York index, ISM manufacturing PMI.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
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AceTraderFx Jan 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 06 Jan 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2296
Despite euro's re-test of last Wednesday's fresh 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2309 in New York on Monday, subsequent sharp retreat to 1.2242 suggests Medium Term upmove is not ready to resume yet and choppy trading below there would continue with mild downside bias, however, last Thursday's reaction low at 1.2210 should remain intact and yield another rebound later.

On the upside, only above 1.2309 would revive bullishness for one more rise to 1.2334/40, then 1.2355/60 before prospect of a much-needed correction.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Japan Jibun Bank services PMI, consumer confidence, China Caixin services PMI.
UK BRC shop price index, Markit services PMI, France consumer confidence, CPI (EU norm), CPI, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, CPI, HICP, EU Markit services PMI, producer prices.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, ADP national employment, Markit services PMI, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transportation.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
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AceTraderFx Jan 06: Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 06 Jan 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 102.77
The greenback's intra-day break below yesterday's 9-1/2 month trough at 102.60 signals MT decline has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 102.40/50, however, support at 102.17/20 should remain intact due to over sold condition and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 103.31/35 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 103.50/60.

There is a slew of data due from U.S. today but one should pay particular attention to the ADP employment at 13:15GMT. Street forecasts are 88k, down from previous reading of 307k. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its FOMC minutes from its previous meeting.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Jan 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 07 Jan 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2331
Despite euro's selloff from yesterday's fresh 32-month peak at 1.2349 to 1.2267, subsequent strong rebound in late New York on usd's weakness due to political turmoil in Washington suggests the pullback has ended and Medium Term upmove would resume after consolidation and above 1.2349 would extend marginally, however, 1.2368/70 may limit upside due to loss of momentum and yield correction.

On the downside, only below 1.2267 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement to 1.2254, then 1.2242 but support at 1.2210 should hold.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia building permits, trade balance, imports, exports.
Germany industrial orders, Swiss retail sales, UK Markit construction PMI, Italy CPI, CPI (EU norm), EU HICP, core HICP, retail sales, business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
U.S. trade balance, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and Canada trade balance, exports, imports, Ivey PMI.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
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AceTraderFx Jan 07: Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 07 Jan 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.39
Despite the greenback's fall to a fresh 9-1/2 month trough at 102.60, subsequent rally to 103.44 yesterday suggests recent decline has made a temporary low there and as price has rebounded again after a brief retreat to 102.95 near New York close, bullishness is retained and above 103.44 would yield stronger retracement to 103.70/75 before prospect of retreat.

On the downside, only below 102.95 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk re-test of 102.60 later.

Pay attention to the release of US jobless claims at 13:30GMT and ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 15:00GMT. Street forecasts are 800k and 54.7 vs previous readings of 787k and 55.9 previously.