Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy
- Thread starter Nigel Price
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Well, I was not. I happened to have a little time. So I look at the chart and took a short based on H4 with a 20 pip stop. Still open.
But, if the weekly is the 'anchor' chart there is no trade. If the daily is the 'anchor' chart .... well there is a pinbar two days ago, so maybe too late to enter, but there is a downtrend on daily bars. Price is aproaching the support trendline of the daily bars though. I thought of putting a target in at 86.00 but that is not wat PAST is about, so I did not.
On H4 I've drawn a (mini) trendline which was just broken when I entered the trade. So you could say a resume of the daily downtrend. Let's see what happens ....
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Nice trade in GBPCAD but ...
The entry was accoring to the plan I described on 040114 in the chart. Maybe I trailed it with a too tight stop. Well, that is evident after the move of this afternoon. I must admit I did not look at the forex calendar so I did not know CAD figures were coming out. All in all satisfied about this one as I managed risk according plan.
The entry was accoring to the plan I described on 040114 in the chart. Maybe I trailed it with a too tight stop. Well, that is evident after the move of this afternoon. I must admit I did not look at the forex calendar so I did not know CAD figures were coming out. All in all satisfied about this one as I managed risk according plan.
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My EURCAD debacle
I posted about this trade before. I moved my stop loss and I got burned. Could have gotten out at 50 pips, then would have had a tremendous week. Now lost about 320 pips🙄😡
And now the worst thing: I did this so many times before. Nigel, how can I get over this hurdle????
I posted about this trade before. I moved my stop loss and I got burned. Could have gotten out at 50 pips, then would have had a tremendous week. Now lost about 320 pips🙄😡
And now the worst thing: I did this so many times before. Nigel, how can I get over this hurdle????
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EurAud
A belated Happy New Year to everyone. Wish you all loads of pips this year.
What do you guys think about this one? Warning though 1.5000 is on the horizon and I dont like shorting into support but if support goes price could go a lot further
Olu
A belated Happy New Year to everyone. Wish you all loads of pips this year.
What do you guys think about this one? Warning though 1.5000 is on the horizon and I dont like shorting into support but if support goes price could go a lot further
Olu
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It was the daily pin I was refering to. I took an entry on a trendline break after the pin and was stopped out, but took a second entry on a retrace and now in profit, but will exit (maybe even stop and reverse) as we have had a strong rejection of the lower trendline and 86.00.
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Where to place stopp loss
Well, here is a 'problem' on stop loss placements and some thoughts going along with it:
What would 'you' do?
Well, here is a 'problem' on stop loss placements and some thoughts going along with it:
- I need some pips to compensate losing trades
- I would like to let it run for more pips
- It is a nice trade already, take your profit
- Every entry is "hard work" so when in stay in as long as possible
- There is no weekly signal to close
- Ooh what, a weekly signal gives away to much pips
- Well, trail on Daily then ...
- etc.
What would 'you' do?
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The SL is perfect and i would suggest to take profit near 0.9035 as it will take a down move from there.
Hi Aquarius
Thanks for writing up some of the psychological aspects of stop loss placement. Now I subscribe to the let your profits run model but there is a cost involved. That cost is the gap between current price and current stop
loss. Many times I have seen trades yield more because I gave the market room to breathe but many times also I have been stopped out with me thinking I could have walked away with more if I had just closed right away or with a profit target order in place.
By the way. Well done on the trade. My stop would be around where yours is now as the trade is a bit long in the tooth.
Olu
2014!
Afternoon Guys, Happy New Year!
I've been absent from the forum here over the course of the last few weeks, having taken a break from active trading/posting over the holidays. But I am back now, refreshed and ready to manage some risk! I hope you all had a good break too, those of you who took one! 😱
I see from flicking back through the pages that there has been plenty going on in my absence, which I am delighted to see. It seems as though I have quite a bit of catching up to do! I'll take a more detailed read through the posts today and see if I can help out with any questions that have come up.
I always say that January is a great time to take a moment to pause and reflect on what we want to accomplish for the coming year. 2013 is gone now, whether it was good or bad, and now it is time to focus on the months ahead. If 2013 was good for you, resolve to make 2014 even better. If 2013 was poor, take a moment to reflect on what you can change to make improvements in 2014.
Trading is far far more than just candlesticks and trendlines, so take some time away from the charts to put in place some goals for 2014 and the steps you are going to take to achieve them.
In the meantime, the trade from the weekly report was straight out of the blocks this morning, and caught me off guard so I don't have a position. I have to admit I was thinking it most likely to see a small bounce off the trendline before breaking it, but we just ploughed straight through it this morning. A beautiful trade - I hope some of you here managed to catch it.
Missing out on 230+ pips is hardly the best start to the year for me, but there will be plenty more opportunities in the days and weeks ahead! A chart is below - I will be looking to sell on retraces now.
Thanks again to everyone who contributed over the holidays - here's to progress in 2014! 😀
Afternoon Guys, Happy New Year!
I've been absent from the forum here over the course of the last few weeks, having taken a break from active trading/posting over the holidays. But I am back now, refreshed and ready to manage some risk! I hope you all had a good break too, those of you who took one! 😱
I see from flicking back through the pages that there has been plenty going on in my absence, which I am delighted to see. It seems as though I have quite a bit of catching up to do! I'll take a more detailed read through the posts today and see if I can help out with any questions that have come up.
I always say that January is a great time to take a moment to pause and reflect on what we want to accomplish for the coming year. 2013 is gone now, whether it was good or bad, and now it is time to focus on the months ahead. If 2013 was good for you, resolve to make 2014 even better. If 2013 was poor, take a moment to reflect on what you can change to make improvements in 2014.
Trading is far far more than just candlesticks and trendlines, so take some time away from the charts to put in place some goals for 2014 and the steps you are going to take to achieve them.
In the meantime, the trade from the weekly report was straight out of the blocks this morning, and caught me off guard so I don't have a position. I have to admit I was thinking it most likely to see a small bounce off the trendline before breaking it, but we just ploughed straight through it this morning. A beautiful trade - I hope some of you here managed to catch it.
Missing out on 230+ pips is hardly the best start to the year for me, but there will be plenty more opportunities in the days and weeks ahead! A chart is below - I will be looking to sell on retraces now.
Thanks again to everyone who contributed over the holidays - here's to progress in 2014! 😀
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Euroman
Euroman - I'm only after reading your entry now - an enormously intelligent post, thank you.
Anyone looking for a great summary of how to approach thinking about things like lot size and so on should read it a couple of times 😀
It's here, for those of you who haven't read it yet.
The only contribution I would make is that everyone should do whatever it takes to make sure that you are not over-extending yourself on the size of your position. If that means changing broker, do it. Oanda for instance has no lower limit on position size, so you can trade with pennies if that is what you need to do.
Start very small, and then if price is moving in your direction, bring your stop to break-even and then you can look to add another position if you want to. That way you are opening yourself to increasing amounts of upside (reward), while all the time keeping your downside (risk) static and limited. 😀
Thanks again for the enjoyable post Euroman.
Euroman - I'm only after reading your entry now - an enormously intelligent post, thank you.
Anyone looking for a great summary of how to approach thinking about things like lot size and so on should read it a couple of times 😀
It's here, for those of you who haven't read it yet.
The only contribution I would make is that everyone should do whatever it takes to make sure that you are not over-extending yourself on the size of your position. If that means changing broker, do it. Oanda for instance has no lower limit on position size, so you can trade with pennies if that is what you need to do.
Start very small, and then if price is moving in your direction, bring your stop to break-even and then you can look to add another position if you want to. That way you are opening yourself to increasing amounts of upside (reward), while all the time keeping your downside (risk) static and limited. 😀
Thanks again for the enjoyable post Euroman.
I will keep that in mind GRS and will go into that topic in greater detail in future posts, no worries.
But there is a very clear and deliberate reason why I am very careful not to get into specifying lot sizes, strike rates and so on. It is my opinion that trading can NEVER be prescriptive, ever. Even with totally mechanical strategies, because no trading can ever be initiated, maintained, and concluded without human intervention somewhere along the line. Because of that indispensible human element, results will always, always, differ.
I could very easily do here what other people do - specify a lot size, a strike rate you should achieve, the size of the average winner you should expect, and the size of the average loser you should expect - say there you go, that's the PAST Strategy, go and knock yourself out.
Would that improve anyone's trading here one bit? Absolutely not, I guarantee you that. My statistics, or anyone else's statistics, will become a distraction, people will try to imitate them, replicate them, target them. Which, given that we are all different in personality, is just a completely futile and frustrating exercise.
What is far more important is that readers think about these topics in relation to their own trading and their own personalities. Concentrate on your own statistics, where your own pressure points are and what triggers them.
The last thing I want in this forum is for a discussion of a topic as diverse as individual results to take hold, and in doing so distracting people from thinking about how they can improve their own results by implementing their own style of managing risk and stretching reward. None of us should be trying to copy anyone else in here, we should all be concentrating on developing our own strengths and abilities.
I hope this goes some way towards addressing your question! Good luck with your trading 🙂
Nigel
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Hi Shiner452, I hope you are keeping well.
I absolutely love restests, because you will find that on the ones that work out, price can fall away quite quickly and you end up having a position right at the very beginning of the move. You can keep risk very small and the potential reward is potentially very large, which is exactly what I like to look for.
Funny you should say that, I don't actually keep stats as to which of my trades are straight breaks and which are retests - that's a good idea, I might start!
For the final part of your question, yes if we are talking about a bearish signal, I will be looking for sells for as long as price stays below the trendline. I don't mind getting stopped out a few times trying to get a position in play, if that what it takes. I'd love it if price just followed my arrows exactly all the time, but unfortunately the market likes to be a bit more awkward than we would like sometimes!
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