usdjpy's mount fuji

hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
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milestones

well month 8 has now passed along with several milestones...... usdjpy just passed 100, the account just passed 100,000 pips and balance rose above 7k......

once above 7k, the minimum lot size will be 0.04.... there are a few trades still on the board less..... the max lot size will now be 2..... things should really pick up speed now.....

speakin of lot size..... an technical error on my part allowed for a huge loss during the month..... it is usually losses of this type that bring about improvements..... such is the case here......

//----

fwiw, included are ibfx's statement and forex factory's explorer...... it's a lot of numbers that very little can be derived from..... the more someone trades, the more that becomes apparrent......

the usdjpy has been and will be my main focus..... but will reach out to other pairs when possible..... the primary trigger will be the td sequential count......

speakin of the usdjpy only, from this point on i will add heavy everytime it falls 100 pips from it's highest recent price.....

have high hopes for this month...... 9 has always been my favorite number.....h
 

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
1,067
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major issues

noticed 2 major issues last week.....

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first, forex factorys explorer is limited to the last 5000 trades.... soon it will actually be concievable for the ea to place 5000 trades in a single month.... so as a journal record keeping talley since 9/8/2012, it might lose all sense of accountability...... if so, might not post it again.....

//-----

second, and more important....... even though i do not usually look at the trades individually, i noticed a time or two where the lot size and profit targets were set incorrect..... or so it seemed...... when lookin at the code for why, accidently noticed a couple other trading issues......

something like this can be troubling....... i searched the code from end to end and could not figure out why..... then, by chance, i noticed ibfx now has negative swap on the usdjpy for both short and long positions......

usdjpy until now had paid swap for long postions..... the ea is written to trade and react differently for trades that will have negative swap..... my usdjpy trades are always long only, and now fall under some new restrictions causing the seemingly incorrect trades.....

it never occured to me that they might change the 'usdjpy' swap setup now.....

bottom line is i must make some adjustments to the code...... may or may not have time this week.....

//----

included below are both ibfx's statement and forex factorys explorer..... as mentioned before, they are just a bunch of numbers that very little can be derived from...... included only for the journals benefit......h
 

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
1,067
266
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usa
and yet another major issue

and yet another major issue.... or perhaps a 6 star general issue.....

it's a habit of mine to delete metatraders 'live update' feature..... really did not want or need the latest batch of improvements to the platform.....

this has never been a problem in the past...... i update everything when i'm good and ready..... well, at least until now......

apparently there is a new broker?/metaquotes? feature that detects your version and will return an 'old version' alert blocking logins...... today the 'old version' alert in the connection status refused to let me login...... in order to log in i had to update.... i was afraid the 'improvements' would cause me grief...... my suspicions were correct.....

improvements for some can be a burden for others..... ying and yang.....


not sure how i will continue here, or even if...... i have accounts with etradefx and ibfx offers tradestation but switching this particular threads theme to them would be like changing horses in the middle of the river......

will not make that decision anytime soon for sure...... yall take care......h
 

hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
1,067
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swap

then, by chance, i noticed ibfx now has negative swap on the usdjpy for both short and long positions......

usdjpy until now had paid swap for long postions..... the ea is written to trade and react differently for trades that will have negative swap..... my usdjpy trades are always long only, and now fall under some new restrictions causing the seemingly incorrect trades.....

it never occured to me that they might change the 'usdjpy' swap setup now.....

//-----

looked into the swap issue further..... as it turns out I only had a rough idea of how swap is calculated.....

keep in mind, my only true concern was due to the ea trades differently on positive trades vs negative swap trades.....

without going into the boring details, briefly, if the central bank rates are wide apart there is little for me to worry about.... but when cb rates are close, such as usd, chf and jpy, occasionally if there is some sort of brief disruptions in the markets, the actual broker swap rates can teeter-totter -/+.....

fwiw, noticed a few brokers that charged a commission on top of the swap....

//------

decided to leave ibfx's tradestation alone and use etradefx.... have started moving my open trades between accounts.... first by at an opportune moment opening trades in etrade and then at an opportune moment closing the same in ibfx.... thereby slowly moving the money and lots to etrade at better prices.... might leave 1000 in ibfx.....

the drawback is ibfx's metatrader is a mini account and etrade is a standard.... so must bundle the trades....

wouldn't surprise me if the usdjpy bounced between 105 and 90 for quite sometime....h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
1,067
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101

after spending 9 months above the 100 ma, the usdjpy spent a couple weeks below it...... back above now..... no real damage done....... has spent the past 3 days treading water at 101..... that's probably a good thing.....

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etrades platform is marketscope..... different programing language to learn so it will take me some time to rewrite everything..... assuming it is possible.....

still have 4+ lots in the metatrader account that need to be moved to etradefx..... the current daily zigzag up segment is only 227 pips, really need 400 pips to close those 4+ lots ..... might be 5 or 6 lots by then, still adding positions....

japan's election are in a few weeks..... hard to see that as a negative.... moved my short term upside to 110..... my long term target has not changed....h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
1,067
266
149
usa
pip cost

//-----
wouldn't surprise me if the usdjpy bounced between 105 and 90 for quite sometime....
//----

last week started off good and ended better..... dollar fell hard....

bernake shuffled the deck on us at the worst possible time and stoplosses did the rest....

this enabled me to move 5 lots into etradefx at prices almost 300 pips lower than mondays open.... lower is better.....

enivid pointed out something to me several years ago.... the pip cost changes with price on pairs like the usdjpy.....

back when the usdjpy was 78, a 100 pip move for 5 usdjpy lots would be about 650$ ..... when it's 100, the same move would be 500$..... and when it's 148, the same move would be about 350$.....

so, lower is better..... sometimes doubly better.....h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
1,067
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whipsawed

my etrade account, marketscope platform, got rolled in the hay last friday.... it's a fully manual trading account at this point....

the ibfx metatrader account, did better, it's automated....

still attempting to move lots from ibfx to etrade in the manner described above, first by at an opportune moment opening trades in etrade and second at an opportune moment closing the same in ibfx.... thereby slowly moving the money and lots to etrade at better prices.... but dang did I blow that.... my manual timing friday truly could not have been worse.....

even though it was only 50 pips wrong which will eventually be insignificant, today it's a sizable....

it's in japan's hands now...... they have my vote....h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
1,067
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targets

moved my short term upside to 110.....-
//-----

someone asked why.... over the past year the usdjpy has averaged roughly 200 pips a month..... with 5 months remaining this year, 110 would keep the pace.....

the pip cost post above was referring to mini lots.... below here will be referring to standard lots.....

if we set a target by year end of 105, that would just be 100 pips above this years high.....

if we consider 3 standard lots, etrade account 2.8 now, the 500 pip move would be roughly worth 15,000.....

15k would be my low year end goal...... 30k would be my high year end goal..... but content with what i get.....

will add on weakness......h
 

hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
1,067
266
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nice things

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will add on weakness.....
//----

that will haunt me for some time.....

the nice thing about 3 standard lots is with only a 100 pip move you can make 3 k.... the not so nice thing is with a 200 pip move you can lose 6 .....

etrade account now stands almost 3k the red and that is even with considerable number of trades closing out positive during the week..... ibfx account is almost -700.....

average price open price in etrade is now 99.15.... it was far lower, but the older lower opening price orders closing last week left only the latest highest
opening orders.....

the usdjpy monthly atr is little 400 pips..... with the September wishy washy fed taper no taper date approaching , the latest cpi numbers from japan, the lopsided yen trade and all the other typical news , it would not surprise me if we had a 800 pip range in august......

the 10 year note got a little ahead of itself.... 23 ought to get it back on a reasonable trend.....

expect this to be a rough week...... will add on weakness..... and sell on excessive strength, while maintain some open positions......h
 

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
1,067
266
149
usa
swings

wouldn't surprise me if the usdjpy bounced between 105 and 90 for quite sometime....h
-
//-----

past couple weeks have been painfully slow..... etrade account increased equity, balance and lots while decreasing average open price by 100 pips....

now 4.1 standard lots with average price of 98.01 ...... usdjpy trades are about 2k in the red.....

ibfx account has 6.39 mini lots and they are about 600 in the red..... 98.42 average price.....
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don worden , of tc2000, said many years ago that we should not hold longs thru major corrections of uptrends...... the thought being if your at a point where you can close profitably and the price is moving against you, close and renter lower......

if it works out, you will raise your equity and balance while at the same time lowering your average entry price......

the current usdjpy correction ,to me, is a bonus, but might have some further fall left in it....... i expect big +/- swings in equity for several months.......

will continue to add on excessive weakness and sell on excessive strength....... prepared to see 95......h
 

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
1,067
266
149
usa
birthdays

if we consider 78.00 as my entry and 148.00 my exit, that gives 7000 pips to work with...... makes me wonder what a 1000$ account would turn into....

admit upfront the mountainous plan seems far fetched,......h
//-----

sunday will be a year since that post....

there have been close to 10,000 trades.... the original maximum lot size was 0.01 mini lot..... the original minimum was 0.01 mini lots....

the ibfx metatrader account is being phased out in the manner described several posts back...... the etrade marketscope is a standard account......

the minimum 'etrade' entry lot size now is 1 mini lot and maximum entry lot size now is 1 standard lot.... maximum total open lots is 5 standard lots.....

the ibfx metatrader account will no longer be involved or mentioned here, in favor of the etrade....

//------

etrade account......

all usdjpy longs closed out this week..... + 3944$ total.... not all closed profitably.....

remaining eurusd shorts are still in the red...... those will be closed within 2 weeks no matter what......

both balance and equity increased.....
//----

roughly speakin, the daily atr of the usdjpy is 100 pips..... the weekly atr is , again roughly, 250 pips.....

5 standard lots is 50$ a pip...... so i fully expect large +/- equity swings......

have high hopes for the next week........ will buy on excessive weakness and sell on excessive strength...... longs only......h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
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august close

etradefx account increased by about 7300 for the month of august ......

all open trades were closed friday morning during london session.....

bought 4 usdjpy mini lots and shorted 2 gbpusd mini lots later during new york session..... gbpusd trade is just lunch money.....

left 9 pending buy orders open by mistake..... if a large gap down occurs, several might pose a problem......

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after an unbelievable td sequential weekly count of 35, the usdjpy retraced to almost dead on the 61.8 fib line..... there is nothing to keep it from revisiting that line during september...... if it did, to me, that could be viewed as a positive....

however, in the back of my mind, i feel within 60 days it will cross above 100 and then spend a long residency in the triple digits.....

september has the potential to be a 10k month..... that would counting the chickens before they are hatched....... so will settle for lunch money......

will add heavy on excessive weakness and sell on excessive strength......h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
1,067
266
149
usa
september

gbpusd trade is just lunch money.....
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well, looks like i'll be skippin lunch for a while..... gbpusd trades never got above water.... 850 in the hole now..... at this point will hold out for 2k or 200 pips, which ever comes first......

//-----

slow going with usdjpy ..... even though quite a few trades closed during week, the balance only increased 1k..... remaining 2.3 standard lots are 440 in the red..... average open price is 99.28 .....

for the week of 9/8, the goal will be to increase lots while lowering average price while at the same time increasing both balance and equity..... a lofty goal.....
//-----

a 600 pip move on 3 standard lots would equate to +/- 18k...... so the potential for 20k equity swings over the next few weeks exists.....

prepared to see 95..... 93 would hurt...... 90 will activate stoplosses......

expect very large +/- equity swings....... will add in a rigid predetermined grid like manner.....h
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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
1,067
266
149
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9/8

the usdjpy was minutes ago, 3pm, at 99.8 ..... which sent those trades up over 1k.... we shall see how it plays out once the full market opens in a few hours......

i am preparing for yen strength this week..... this might include shorting the nzdjpy and audjpy.... just depends.....

ball park drawdown this week could be as much as 22k.......h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
1,067
266
149
usa
rough seas

well, looks like i'll be skippin lunch for a while..... gbpusd trades never got above water.... 850 in the hole now..... at this point will hold out for 2k or 200 pips, which ever comes first......
//----
//----

last week was a disaster.... if it wasn't the worst week in over a year, it was within seeing distance of the worst..... gbpusd stopped out..... twice......

short again.... target is the daily 100 sma which is currently 550 pips below and rising.....

eurusd trades still under water..... target is the daily 100 sma which is currently 200 pips below and rising.....

//------

got caught off guard with usdjpy..... was expecting yen strength at the beginning of the week and yen weakness later by friday..... turned out to be a mirror image of that.....

those trades are poorly positioned for short term..... 3.3 standard lots with average price of 99.29 ....

it bounced off the rising daily 200 sma twice in august ..... a third bounce this month is very likely... the 200 sma is currently about 160 pips below.....

goal is still to raise the total lots while lowering average price..... just havin a tough time of it...... but have high hopes..... after all, what are the odds of two bad weeks in a row...... :rolleyes: .....h
 

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
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fed con games

//-----
a 600 pip move on 3 standard lots would equate to +/- 18k...... so the potential for 20k equity swings over the next few weeks exists.....

prepared to see 95..... 93 would hurt...... 90 will activate stoplosses......
//-----
the mark of a good politician is to never turn out the lights early on a party..... especially when the public is pickin up the tab...... enter the new taper shell game.... but now we must guess the shell and month underneath..... just don't pick september....

//-----

apparently someone had what it took, both fortitude and money, to buy the usdjpy market at 98..... that could be a positive.... but might end all hopes of my wish list of 6 standard lots with a average price of 96 or lower....

currently 5.9 standard lots open with average price of 98.9 .....

the rising daily 200 sma is now tracking dead on the rising lower trend line.... it would take a minimum of a month before it crossed 100.....

the weekly 100 sma has crossed above the weekly 200 sma.... both are at least 6 months from crossing 100......

will add 1 standard lot above 100 next week.....

prepared for large +/- equity swings.......h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
1,067
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weekly trendlines

apparently someone had what it took, both fortitude and money, to buy the usdjpy market at 98..... that could be a positive.... but might end all hopes of my wish list of 6 standard lots with a average price of 96 or lower....
//------

perhaps i spoke too quick.... 96 is gittin kinda close..... low for today so far has been 97.48 ..... ;) ..... 95 would be better..... we might see what that lower trendline is made of.....

all trades considered, last week was a wash..... cashed out almost 7 usdjpy lots at somewhere around 99 .... cleared 12 whole dollars...... a disappointment that now seems a blessing....... sometimes it's best to retreat at any cost......

have high hopes for october......

prepared for large +/- equity swings.......h
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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
1,067
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149
usa
we are here

headlines might read the same, but over all situations are quite different..... so trying to draw correlations might be difficult.....

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forex is the definition of high risk..... charts only for reference.... nothing more.....h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
1,067
266
149
usa
wait and see trend

the minimum 'etrade' entry lot size now is 1 mini lot and maximum entry lot size now is 1 standard lot.... maximum total open lots is 5 standard lots.....
//----

minimum lot size starting sunday will be 2 mini lots.... max total lots open at any one time will bump up to 8 standard lots .....

past 2 weeks have been a non stop roller coaster...... currently 4.4 standard lots open at little over 5k+..... that's not much breathin room.....

it's not a uptrend..... it's not a downtrend..... it's a wait and see trend....

since may of this year the coils on the weekly chart have been 4 bars up followed by 4 bars down.... the range of each coil has been roughly 50% of the prior.... simply put, the coils are tightening and must soon break.....

my 105 year end target still stands.....

prepared for very large equity swings next week...... h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
1,067
266
149
usa
closed little over 4400$ in usdjpy last week.....

all things considered, the risk of ruin far out weighed the need for further gains..... a single inappropriate news flash or fake twitter could have cause a 3 second fall which could have set off an avalanche of stop losses..... preferred to not be involved.....

remaining open trades are about 30 pips in the hole..... i would call them poorly positioned at best.....

the weekly atr is roughly 250 pips..... which means 99 is possible, but so is 96..... might to see both this week.....

it likely will take a week or more for the recent usd's bitter taste to pass..... it will.....

prepared for large equity swings.....h

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