usdjpy's mount fuji

hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
839
215
109
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relative weight

ah so tokyo.....

the usdjpy has spent the most of the last 20 years below falling 100 and 200 moving averages on the daily and weekly charts...... hardly reason to buy......

all we need is the yen to loose some weight..... boj believes the same......

last night the usdjpy clawed it's way back above the 100 weekly and 200 daily on nothing more than that hope...... it will take action to keep it above....... the extreme risk of buying in a downtrend should be apparent.......

the 95 low was 79.75...... my current lot weighted average price is 79.15 on 12 orders..... those 12 should stand for the next 7000 pips........

of the soon to be 500 orders placed the past 2 months, only 50 have been usdjpy....... you simply can not force trades....... the other 450 have been other pairs...... we take what we can where we can........

will add on weakness......h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
839
215
109
usa
3 atr's

speakin of rare event trading, 3 atr move's on the usdjpy's daily chart are rare...... even more scarce are those moves that stood......

below is a simple indicator that will be found on most any chart of mine..... the lwma with atr offsets..... it will alert once per bar if the price is above/below the particular line..... if it is above/below the 3 atr, it will alert on every tick till you set awake in the inputs to true.......

even though ea's handle 90% of the trading, certain rare events i would like to be made aware of even at 2 am in the morning....... if by chance the alert does not wake me up, priscilla screamin :mad: 'turn that darn thing off ' will......

when i mention will add on weakness, it is these lines......h
 

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
839
215
109
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concepts

hey enivid...... yes, that's true....

3 atr move's on the usdjpy's daily chart .... this is mainly speakin of the usdjpy's daily timeframe...... the other settings, such as periods, used are the default ones in the indicator......

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for overall purposes i use trade producing dashboard ea's which monitor every pair on the major timeframes....... and as you mentioned broad concepts there need to be refined.....

the settings for each pair, timeframe and period must be specific to each case...... the ea self adjusts each as conditions change......

sorry about the poor picture, it works better than it looks.......h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
839
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40 year renko

for the second week in a row only 21 trades were closed..... what are the odds of that.....

will the usdjpy ever see 360 again...... what are the odds of that......

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admit up front a 7000 pip target seems quite a leap...... but when compared to the 42 year 10 point renko usdjpy chart, 7000 pips is clearly only a small step....... from 360 to 78....... now that was a trend trade....... or perhaps should say, is a trend trade....... parity is closer than we think.......

//----

moved from 80 in the hole to about 500 out of it....... have hopes for next week.......

will add on weakness.......h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
839
215
109
usa
happy thanksgiving

eurjpy peakin over the line........

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happy thanksgiving everyone......h
 

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
839
215
109
usa
holiday weeks

holiday weeks tend to be rough for me...... this one was no exception...... the low volume thin trading is unpredictable.......

almost 50 trades closed this week...... couple gbpjpy trades still open that might end in a loss.....

next week should be a killer.....h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
839
215
109
usa
federal idiomatic expressions to profit by

first we had 'irrational exuberence' ....... now we have 'fiscal cliff' .....

gimme a break.......

as long as australia exports iron ore, japan exports steel, the fed exports money and flatiron corp still builds suspension bridges, the states are in good shape...... congress will build two...... one to cross the cliff and another to return back...... just in case we don't like the other side......

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almost 50 trades closed this week.... really expected twice that many....... with the on again off again euro situation and now the unfathomable 'fiscal cliff' chasm , december might end up being the most volatile month so far......

mentioned in post 17 about my end of the month habit..... well it's that time.... will post something of possible value this weekend......h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
839
215
109
usa
great expectations

so.... month 3 comes to it's end.... 9/8/12 - 12/8/12...... roughly 50 trades closed again this week...... expected twice that many......

speakin of expectations, ya know what you can expect after makin 100%......

loosin it all........

kinda like the pip in charles dickson's story great expectations.....

//----

7 pairs have yet to be traded..... the breakdown info for the rest is below..... this is a small account so lot size as a rule is small..... the column 'ave lots' is average lot size traded on the pair.....

as mentioned before, the usdjpy is my main focus..... if things go as planned, shortly after the first of the year this account will make only usdjpy trades and they will buys, no sells.....

//-----

it seems the worlds view of the yen is changing fast..... this has no doubt helped me here, but views can be a dangerous thing as crowds often tend to move too far too fast..... more than any other time since the begining of this journal, i am on guard....

one bad day can wipe out 3 months of good ones.....h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
839
215
109
usa
bad days and nightmares

one bad day can wipe out 3 months of good ones.....h

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and speakin of bad days.... some weeks have more than one.....

this week was flat full of'em..... at least for me.......

only 25 trades closed, all but a few of those closed by stoploss being hit..... and those losses were comparitively large...... with quite a few trades still near stoploss, the overall account has again moved to negative..... -160..... such is life........

my thoughts are things will improve and those trades will close positively...... course that might be late next year...... h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
839
215
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usa
it's not personal.... it's business....

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with quite a few trades still near stoploss, the overall account has again moved to negative..... -160..... such is life........

my thoughts are things will improve and those trades will close positively...... course that might be late next year...... h

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//----

one of the hardest things in trading, for me, is to watch a stoploss get hit only to have the market turn and move to a point where the trades would have hit their profit targets...... we must shake it off and move on......

as the godfather used to say, "it's not personal.... it's business...."

//-----

trading has been slow...... the account swung to a positive 160 last week.... forgot to post last friday...... and moved to a positive 271 this week...... i fully expect things to continue to improve here......

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it's been probably 6 weeks since i have mentioned 'will add on weakness'...... the market is probably squeezing out all except the most die hard yen shorts.....

at this point it would take a 400 pip drop for me to consider adding any long term longs..... i will not chase a highly leveraged market....... especially when there are so many other fish to fry.....h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
839
215
109
usa
bummer

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one of the hardest things in trading, for me, is to watch a stoploss get hit only to have the market turn
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and harder still is to watch it twice in a row...... i'm fixin to take it dang personal.....

naaah..... not really......

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last week a bunch of gbpusd trades hit their stoploss only to see the market retrace..... again, we must shake it off and move on......

someone asked in another thread, is it possible to earn daily profit in ForEx? ..... as you might expect there was a whole pack of answers...... and those answers varied widely......

my answer was simply, it is not possible for me to be profitable every day..... some days are positive, some days are negative and some days no trades are taken at all...... and that's true......


below is an indicator that will plot each days profit or loss of the total account.... put it on any daily chart..... i have it attached to gbp:mad:usd chart below...... but it does not matter which pair.... it's lookin at the total account, not just one pair.....

from the begining of this deal, 9/8/12, this account has had 6 losing days.... those days usually have an extreme spike in price that took me out at stoploss.....
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but that's sooooo last year...... we can do better......h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
839
215
109
usa
no end in sight

will probably hate myself later this week, but makin a tough call to lighten up on usdjpy.......

wrote a ea years ago that searched for trends with no end in sight...... the thought being was if there was no end in sight, turn around because odds are it was behind you.....

that ea counted various things and kept track of the longest run of each..... i specfically remember saying 12 usdjpy up days, meaning a higher high, in a row were rarer than a angela merkel smile.....

we are now lookin dead at 12 pallada up weeks in a row..... and almost twice as many pallada up days.......

at 1000 pips above our start, it's been a good run...... kinda prefer to keep it that way.......

let'em buy some back here...... will add heavy on any weakness......h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
839
215
109
usa
kiwi and aussie d

might be a while before any real usdjpy weakness.... or might be tommorrow.....

so until then, takin a hard long range look at the pairs downunder..... my prefered entrys are on the charts below..... 400 pip stoploss and a 1000 pip profit target......

//-----

i'm in the deer stand this morning, as normal, and neither the deer nor usdjpy are moving......

so out of boredom, i sold both the audusd and nzdusd...... will add positions in some yet to be determined manner as the price drops.....h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
839
215
109
usa
lookin back

Are you still mainly bullish on USD/JPY? It seems like some nice profit could be raked in Sept/Oct simply by going long-term long.

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lookin back, enivid was right then and not much has changed since....

here is a classic case of why we should trade what we see and not what we think..... my thinking has surely been a negative......

not only should i have held onto all those usdjpy longs but should have never dabbled lately with the eurusd shorts.....

the eurusd shorts have the floating p/l cut in half..... i'm confident those shorts will hit their profit target, but might be a while..... also heavily short via ise euu spot 'put' options..... 131's , 134's and 137's ...... those also are currently in the red, but i feel that will change.....

as far as the usdjpy, i'm not thinkin any more...... except possibly to note the td squential is '17' on the weekly chart.....

would be interesting to write an indicator or ea to count how many times that has occured on every pair..... my thoughts are it would be rare indeed..... oooppps, scratch that..... forgot, i'm not supposed to be thinkin.....

will add on weakness......h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
839
215
109
usa
month 5 closes

and so 5 months have now passed..... short sightedness on my part has played a negative role here..... i was handed a valuable rare event and have all be let it slip thru my fingers...... we live and learn.....

the account has not moved much lately..... it's a little over 4k in equity and the remaining trades are well positioned..... it would not surprise me to have a 500$ week in the near furture.....

the weekly usdjpy td sequential now stands at an almost unheard of 18...... it's within a few hundred pips of both a 2 year high and major fibo level..... with a pin bar.... just sayin......

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i have a mind to try a similar thing with the usdcad..... will post my current chart this weekened....

doing so will also give me a chance to explain my suspiciously high win/loss ratio..... among other things.....

have a good weekend.......h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
839
215
109
usa
new avenues

this deal here is weighin on my mind...... so much so that i'm considerin other options......

my original thoughts were to buy on excessive weakness and sell on excessive strength..... which has worked, just not as planned.... we've been all too short on weakness of any kind, much less excessive....

so, i'm searchin for new criteria......

the td sequential comes to mind..... perhaps using the common 9 to approximate the entry and exit.... the gbpusd chart example below.....

likely i'll write a ea or dashboard type indicator first.... perhaps to calculate the td count on every pair on every timeframe.... perhaps to total the td counts for all timeframes for each pair ..... perhaps to total each countrys currency's td counts on each timeframe...... and so on..... that amount of information is far too much for a common screen so the ea or indicator will have to be multi-dimensional and multi-layered...... as is most everything i write......

the td sequential is notorious for being early.... so some sort of fade in might be employed.....

still studying on it...... will post anything of value here......

//----

several of the images below are using forexfactorys trade explorer..... those might be the last results from the prior rules...... the rules were just too restrictive.....

from this point on, my entrys and exits will change..... lots and leverage will not change........ the lot size will be typically be less than 0.5 and leverage typically less than 1:1....h

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Last edited:

hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
839
215
109
usa
we've been all too short on weakness of any kind, much less excessive....
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kinda wish i'd kept my mouth shut now...... crap....

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made some progress on the td sequential....... made the first trades with it.....

the daily audcad count stood at 13..... the weekly chart is dead in the middle of a brick wall extending back to 2011..... if it climbs over, 1.08 will be the next hurdle.....

as mention before, calculating all the counts on 5 to 10080 timeframes then totaling those for every pair......

then summing those totals of all related pairs for each currency....

the next step should give the counts a sense of balance, which can best be visualized as a playground teeter-totter, where the low counts are on the left side, the 60 minute count is the fulcrum and high counts on the right side.....

........ 5 15 30 //60\\ 240 1440 10080 ...... my entrys/exits will be based on something similar.....

still studying on it...... in between cryin over the usdjpy...... careful what ya wish for.......h

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hayseed

Master Trader
Jul 27, 2010
839
215
109
usa
march

from this point on, my entrys and exits will change.....
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well march is a goner..... went quite well actually..... truely believe april will be the best month of the past 12.....

as before, included is the ibfx detailed statement along with forex factorys explorer overview.....

as you can see the results have improved since last time..... as mentioned, the rules, entrys, and exits were just far to strict.... this was my fault due in part for me attempting joel rensinks, therealthing, 500$ challenge..... course given the hayseed/therealthing ratio, figured i might better start with 1000......

the challenge was basically to take 500 and turn it into 150,000 in 10 years or less.... trt on has 30 posts on forexfactory..... in my mind, they are worth reading.... twice.....


with very few losses and the help of the yen, it should be doable..... my goal is to do it in 1000 trading days..... considerably ahead of schedule.....

i have relaxed the rules along with increasing the numbers of trades taken.... the max allowable lot size has now doubled.... 1 mini lot....

last year my longest run of consectutive wins was 444.... currently at 1145 now..... should be over 2000 by may.....

japans now official policy should make things much easier......h

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