Technical Analysis Today

[Zerologic]

Gold prices edge up as US inflation eases

Yesterday, gold prices drew a small-bodied bullish candle with shadows on the top and bottom of the candle. Prices formed a high of 3265, a low of 3216, and a close of 3249. Gold prices are near the lower band, which was a support level in early May.

A weaker-than-expected US inflation report and a trade tariff deal between China and the US could keep gold prices below the $3,300 level. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after falling 0.1 percent in March in the US. Over the past 12 months, the all-goods index has increased by 2.3 percent before seasonal adjustments.

The Fed is expected to remain cautious despite falling inflation, with analysts warning that inflation could rise as tariffs gradually push up prices. According to the CME Group’s Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged at its June 18 Fed meeting is 91.8%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is only 8.2%.

Recent US-China trade tariff talks that have reached some points of agreement have increased risk appetite and sent bullion prices lower. However, geopolitical risks and the latest developments in tariff policy could push gold in either direction.

Meanwhile, the World Gold Council reports that China added 2 tonnes to its gold reserves in April. The National Bank of Poland increased by 12 tonnes in April to 509 tonnes, while the Czech National Bank increased its reserves by 2.5 tonnes in April. The adoption of gold by central banks could maintain the value of gold in the long term.

This week, analysts will look to the US PPI data to be released on Thursday, which could be a trigger for the USD value, which is often negatively correlated to gold.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold prices rise amid Russia-Ukraine talks deadlock

Gold prices recovered, drawing a bullish candle with a body length longer than the preceding candle and a long wick at the bottom of the candle. Gold prices formed a high of 3240 low of 3120, closing at 3239.

Previously, gold prices had fallen around 10% in two weeks after gold reached a high of 3439 on May 7, but failed to draw a new all-time high and finally fell to a low of 3120 in a week.

The decline may have been caused by several factors, such as the easing of the trade war after the US had several tariff agreements with China and other trading partners. The positive news supported the strengthening of the USD, which in turn caused gold, which is often negatively correlated to the USD, to fall over several days.

USD strengthening was also triggered by US economic data released this week. US PPI in April unexpectedly fell by -0.5% MoM, missing the estimate of a 0.2% increase. Core PPI fell by -0.4%, below the estimate of a 0.3% expansion. Meanwhile, retail sales in April in the US increased by 0.1% MoM after the March figure was revised up to 1.7%. US jobless claims were unchanged at 229k from the previous revision and in line with expectations.

Although some analysts have increased their bets that the Fed will ease policy by 53 basis points in 2025. However, according to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, it is estimated that at the June 18 meeting, the Fed will keep interest rates at the current level by 91.86%, and the possibility of a rate cut is only 8.2%.

Meanwhile, the Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies, is still struggling to get an upward trend. DXY yesterday fell to a low of 100,589 after rising to 101,977 on May 12. According to the EMA 50, DXY is still on a bearish path, while according to the EMA 20, DXY has bullish potential.

From a geopolitical risk perspective, the Russia-Ukraine negotiations are still at a standstill, adding to the geopolitical risk that could support gold. Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, Turkey, on Thursday were still unclear. The negotiations that were expected to end the Ukrainian war three years ago have not yet begun. The reason is, the meeting of the two heads of state, Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, was also canceled.

 

[Zerologic]

USD/CNH steady amid slowdown due to trade war

Amid the trade war with the United States, the USDCNH pair is moving steadily between the middle and lower band lines. On Friday, the USDCNH price drew a small-bodied bullish candle and short wicks on the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 7.2134, a low of 7.1948, and a close of 7.2073.

Despite experiencing an economic slowdown due to challenges such as the trade war with the United States and the debt crisis, China is still a key player in the global economy. China has been the world's second-largest economy by nominal GDP since 2010 and even surpassed the European Union economy in 2021.

The trade war with the US is an external challenge for China that affects Chinese exports to the United States. Several e-commerce giants such as Tencent, Douyin, and JD.com have been affected by President Trump's tariffs and have shifted their products to the domestic market.

China's Vice Minister of Commerce Sheng Qiuping in a statement last month, described China's vast domestic market as an important buffer for exporters in the face of external shocks, while urging local authorities to coordinate efforts to stabilize exports and boost consumption.

Another challenge facing China is the debt crisis, especially at the local government level, driven by fiscal deficits and rising debt burdens. On the other hand, the potential for deflation due to industrial overcapacity is another concern.

In response to these challenges, China is trying to address economic challenges by encouraging domestic consumption, increasing innovation, and investing in infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the United States is also facing economic challenges due to the impact of the trade war and fears of a recession. Recently, Moody's downgraded the United States' credit rating from AAA to AA1 on May 17, 2025. This downgrade came after other credit rating agencies, Fitch and S&P Global Ratings, also downgraded the US. The downgrade was caused by several factors, including increasing US government debt and rising interest costs. The downgrade could have an impact on borrowing costs and investor confidence in the US economy.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies,s moved below the 50 EMA slightly down -0.2% at 100.746 from 100.905 today at the time of writing.

Today China will release economic data, the National Bureau of Statistics of China will report retail sales which are forecast to rise 6.0% from the previous 5.9%, Industrial Production is forecast to fall 5.7% from the previous 7.7%, and the Unemployment Rate is forecast to be 5.2% the same as the previous revision.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold prices rise as Moody's downgrades US credit rating

Gold prices surged on Tuesday, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with a slight shadow at the bottom of the candle. Gold prices formed a high of 3295, a low of 3204, and a close of 3289.

The increase in gold prices was triggered by several supporting factors, such as the downgrade of the US credit rating. Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA1 last Friday, dampening risk sentiment and increasing demand for Gold.

Several central banks, such as the PBoC and RBA, have cut interest rates, also contributing to the value of gold, which is a safe-haven asset that does not provide a yield.

The downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's has implications for all financial markets. After the announcement, US government bond yields rose, especially in medium and long-term tenors. For example, the 10-year bond yield rose from around 4.1% to almost 4.5%. The increase in treasury yields also indicates that the US government must pay higher interest rates to issue new debt. On the other hand, safe-haven assets are more sought after by investors.

Moody's cited several key factors driving this decision, including: Large and increasing fiscal deficits, soaring national debt burdens, swelling interest costs on debt, and repeated failures in fiscal reforms.

The US dollar came under selling pressure amid renewed concerns about US President Donald Trump's protectionist measures and the government's runaway debt. The concerns come ahead of Trump's tax law. Analysts say the law could add between $3 trillion and $5 trillion to the debt. The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.33% to 100.009 from 100.580 on Tuesday, extending earlier losses.

While there was no fresh news on US-China talks, the US is still in trade talks with other trading partners. Investors' focus is on negotiations with Japan as tensions between the two countries escalate amid US demands.

Investors will also be focusing on the UK inflation report today, which is expected to rise to 3.3% from a previously revised 2.6%. Higher inflation could support gold as a safe-haven asset that has proven to be more resilient to inflation.

 

[Zerologic]

Why the Hong Kong Dollar Weakens Significantly Against the US Dollar

The Hong Kong dollar is experiencing a slightly different condition than other currencies. While the US dollar is weakening against other major currencies, the Hong Kong dollar is weakening against the US dollar. This can be seen from the USDHKD price chart, which has drawn consecutive bullish candlesticks since May 3. Yesterday, the Hong Kong dollar price reached a high of 7.83102, which is the highest value throughout 2025.

Meanwhile, the US dollar we are witnessing more weakening against other currencies throughout 2025 during President Trump's administration. This can be seen from the value of the US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six other major currencies that tend to move below the EMA 20 throughout 2025. The DXY is now down 0.4% at 99.600 at the time of writing, although it tried to cross the EMA 20 up at 101.977, but the DXY failed to maintain its increase.

The Hong Kong dollar had indeed strengthened against the US dollar and hit its lowest point at 7.4820 on May 2, marking a turning point in the market trend reversal. The weakening US dollar caused concerns by the Hong Kong authorities, which then prompted the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) to intervene in the market by buying US dollars to maintain the stability of its currency benchmark system. This step was the first intervention since 2020.

A New York-based HKMA official confirmed that the authority had bought about 7.8 billion US dollars in early May. In contrast, in 2022 and 2023, the HKMA sold US dollars more often to keep the exchange rate from going beyond the lower end of the trading range.

The HKMA's currency intervention is a form of vigilance amid increasing global market pressures. The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to a tight range of 7.75 and 7.85 against the US currency. The pegging to the USD began in 1972. The HKD has been tied to the US dollar, and the HKMA plays a role in keeping it stable. They make rules to maintain their value and stop inflation.

Hong Kong is a major financial center, which makes the HKD even more important. People use it for trading, investing, and promoting between countries. Its steady value makes it a favorite for businesses and investors everywhere.

The HKD is issued by the government and three banks: HSBC, Bank of China, and Standard Chartered. The HKMA acts as a central bank during this process.

Today, concerning the US dollar, some news that attracts traders' attention is US Unemployment Claims and PMI data that provide subtle clues to the current US economy.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold prices rise on US debt concerns, Bitcoin falls at the same time

Gold prices on Friday recorded an impressive increase after a sharp decline in mid-May. The increase in gold prices was driven by various factors, including increasing investor concerns about the sustainability of US debt after Moody's downgraded the US credit rating due to the failure of the Trump administration to fix fiscal problems. The rating agency announced that the US credit rating was downgraded to 'AA1' from 'AAA'. Gold prices on Friday rose, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle that engulfed the previous candle. The price formed a high of 3365 low of 3287, and closed at 3357.

In contrast to the movement of Bitcoin prices. This crypto asset moved down from its previous high after the price reached $111k; the price of Bitcoin is now around the $107k level. Although the price fell yesterday, in the long term, the Bitcoin trend still has the potential to be bullish. This is read from the 200 MA line, which draws an ascending channel far below the current price.

Another factor that drives gold is geopolitical risk. The lack of progress in Ukraine-Russia talks and growing fears of a deepening conflict in the Middle East amid reports of Israel escalating attacks on Gaza and planning attacks on nuclear facilities in Iran have allowed the precious metal to benefit from risk aversion.

The US trade war with partner countries is also in the investor's attention. Trump warned of a 50% tariff on EU imports, escalating the trade war and boosting demand for safe havens. Trump said that discussions with the EU were "no progress" while threatening to impose 50% tariffs on EU imports on June 1. Meanwhile, the latest development from the Trump administration was the passage of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' by the US House of Representatives, which would add almost $4 trillion to the US debt limit.

This week, investors will focus on several economic agendas. The US will feature data on Durable Goods Orders for April on Tuesday. Next, the Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of its May policy meeting on Wednesday. And on Friday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish data on the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

On the other hand, the dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six other major currencies, is still under pressure. The DXY is now at 99.047, down from a high of 99.940. DXY is in a downtrend below EMA 20.

Today, US and UK bank holidays may affect trading volumes in the spot forex market. UK banks will be closed in observance of the Spring Bank Holiday. US banks will be closed in observance of Memorial Day.

 

[Zerologic]

RBNZ expected to cut rates, NZD/USD in focus

Yesterday, the New Zealand dollar drew a long-bodied bearish candlestick after failing to maintain the 0.60313 barrier. The price formed a high of 0.60063, a low of 0.59398, and a close of 0.59487.

Today, the NZDUSD currency pair is in focus because the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce the Official Cash Rate, which is expected to lower the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points from the previous 3.50% to 3.25%. From the data available on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand website, it has lowered interest rates three times throughout 2025, with details in January, the OCR was still at 4.25%, then cut in February to 3.75%, and cut again to 3.50% in April. Interest rate news often has an impact on currency volatility.

The US dollar traded higher yesterday amid Trump's decision to delay the deadline for a trade deal with the EU until July 9. The US dollar index (DXY) rose 0.66% from a low of 98.778 to a high of 99.615. Despite the rise visually, the DXY is still on track below the 20 EMA.

Trump has backed off his threat to impose 50% tariffs on all EU imports, which would have cut global growth prospects. US and Eurozone commercial activity accounts for 30% of global trade and 43% of global GDP. Analysts have warned that the dollar’s recovery may be short-lived due to concerns about the US debt ballooning as the tax cuts are expected to increase debt by $36.8 trillion over the next decade.

Yesterday, the US Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods fell in April after four straight monthly increases, dropping $19.9 billion, or 6.3 percent, to $296.3 billion. This followed a 7.6 percent increase in March. Excluding transportation, new orders rose 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders fell 7.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also down after four straight monthly increases, led the decline, dropping $20.3 billion, or 17.1 percent, to $98.8 billion.

These figures will likely dictate the direction of the USD ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes and the key Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) figures, due later this week.

In New Zealand, investors are bracing for a dovish statement. The bank may point to further monetary easing, citing the potential impact of an uncertain trade scenario that could put pressure on the New Zealand Dollar. The RBNZ is expected to make a small adjustment to its key interest rate. Inflation was slightly higher than expected in the first quarter, but it remained within an acceptable range. The weak real economy provides no reason for real interest rates to remain restrictive. While the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1% in the first quarter, inflation was slightly higher than expected in the first quarter, inflation remained within an acceptable range. The weak real economy provides no reason for real interest rates to remain restrictive. While the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1% in the first quarter.

 

[Zerologic]

Canadian dollar strengthens as federal court strikes down Trump tariffs

On Thursday's trading, USDCAD drew a bearish candle with wicks on top and bottom of the candle. The length of the body swallowed the previous candle, reflecting a reversal signal. The price formed a high of 1.38615 low of 1.37848 closing of 1.38057.

The strengthening of the Canadian dollar is in line with the latest news about Trump's tariffs being blocked by a federal court. The ruling by a three-judge panel of the US Court of International Trade on Wednesday, May 28, stated that Trump did not have the authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs worldwide on April 2. The tariffs impose high taxes on China, Mexico, and Canada.

Oddly enough, after the announcement, the Canadian dollar weakened and moved up to 1.38238 from a low of 1.37848. However, over time, the Canadian dollar strengthened and closed at a lower price than the opening. There was even a gap in the USDCAD pair where the opening price was lower than the closing price. The gap is clearly visible on the H1 timeframe or lower.

President Donald Trump’s tariff policy involving threats of tariffs on several countries has been seriously challenged after a federal judge at the U.S. Court of International Trade (USCIT) struck down the Trump administration’s abuse of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad import taxes globally.

The Trump administration is expected to appeal to a higher court as its next course of action. United States (US) President Donald Trump on Thursday, May 29, filed an emergency motion with the U.S. Court of Appeals to overturn the court’s decision blocking his global tariff policy.

The political turmoil in the U.S. has investors skeptical about the long-term prospects amid continued uncertainty over trade policy. Investors will now await further news to see what legal mechanisms the Trump administration will try to circumvent the USCIT.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies, briefly rose to 100.540 after the court announcement, but finally fell sharply to a low of 99.21,7, crossing the EMA 20 from the upside.

Meanwhile, yesterday's US GDP Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025. And Unemployment Claims of 240k were higher than the forecast of 229k from the previous revision of 226k. This economic data is less supportive of the USD, so the performance of the US dollar is still under pressure, including the Canadian dollar. However, USDCAD remains in a tight short-term technical range.

Today, investors will focus on several highlights from both Canada and the US. From Canada, the GDP release is expected to be 0.1% from the previous -0.2%. And the PCE index, which is the Fed's preferred measure for its relationship with interest rate policy. The PCE index is expected to be 0.1%.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold prices are steady in the market range. Where will it go next?

On Friday's trading, gold prices fell, drawing a bearish candle with a medium body and a small shadow at the bottom of the candle. Gold failed to extend its rise after reaching a high of 3330 on Thursday. Yesterday's gold price formed a high of 3322, a low of 3271, and a close of 3288 near the middle band line.

Gold in the last few days has moved more in the range above 3200 and below 3400. The flat Bollinger band reflects the market moving in a sideways phase. On Thursday's gold price movement, gold rose, drawing a bullish candle, but sentiment turned negative after US President Donald Trump complained that China violated the agreement negotiated between the two parties in Switzerland.

On the other hand, Trump's tariff policy has caused economic uncertainty. The US Federal Court of Appeals reinstated most of the tariffs imposed by Trump on April 2, "Liberation Day," after a decision by the US Court of International Trade, which blocked most of the duties as illegal. As a result, US equities fell, while the US Dollar recovered from near its daily low.

The Core PCE Index released on Friday showed actual data of 0.1% as expected. The data fell in April compared to the March meeting. Despite the softer inflation environment, Gold prices failed to gain traction as short US Dollar positions in the futures market were trimmed last week, according to Commitments of Traders data.

The report showed that the US core PCE inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, rose at a modest pace of 2.5% on an annualized basis, as expected, compared to 2.7% in March, which was revised down from 2.6%. In the same period, the PCE inflation data rose by 2.1%, slower than the 2.2% expected and the previous release of 2.3%.

The impact of the US PCE inflation data is expected to be limited in the Fed’s next monetary policy. Fed officials appear more concerned about inflation caused by uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policy.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies, is still moving below the EMA 20, which reflects that the DXY is on a downward path. The DXY rose slightly by 0.11% on Friday in the range of 99.443 after rising to 100.540 on Thursday.

Today, investors will wait for the release of US data. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will publish the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Manufacturing and Services PMI data for May on Monday and Wednesday, which may affect gold in the short term. However, today, some banks in New Zealand, China, and Europe are on holiday, which could affect trading volumes in the gold market.

 

[Zerologic]

USD/CHF drops extend three-day decline

The Swiss Franc in yesterday's trading drew a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow, reflecting a moderate decline on Monday at the beginning of this week's market. USDCHF formed a high of 0.82319 low of 0.81570, and closed at 0.81688 near the lower band. This decline extended the previous decline since May 29 from a high of 0.83476.

The decline in the Swiss Franc reflects increased demand for safe-haven currencies amid President Donald Trump's tariff policy, which has caused investor confidence in the US dollar to decline. Recently, President Donald Trump, in his speech before US steel workers, said he would raise steel tariffs from 25% to 50%. Shortly after the speech, Trump emphasized it through a post on Truth Social. He said a similar policy would also apply to aluminum.

Trump's decision received a response from the European Union, which said the policy was damaging ongoing negotiation efforts between the two blocs. EU officials in an official statement stated that they were ready to retaliate and warned that cross-Atlantic trade relations were entering a risky phase again.

Steel-producing countries such as South Korea, Vietnam, Japan, and India may be greatly affected by Trump's new policy, potentially affecting the value of steel company shares.

Meanwhile, Australia is considering suing Trump at the World Trade Organization (WTO) over steel and aluminum tariffs. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is scheduled to meet with Trump on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Canada at the end of June.

The escalating global trade war tensions have further worsened the performance of the dollar index. Yesterday, the DXY, which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies, fell to a low of 98.619, moving away from the EMA 20 line, reflecting a strengthening bearish sentiment. This position provides an advantage to the Swiss Franc, which is one of the safe-haven currencies.

Yesterday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI data released by the Institute for Supply Management showed a value of 48.5, lower than the expected 49.5. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing Prices were 69.4, below the expected 70.2. This data further adds to the burden on the performance of the US dollar.

Today, traders will focus on Swiss CPI data, which is forecast to rise by 0.1% from a previous revision of 0.0%, and US JOLTS job openings, which is forecast to fall by 7.11M from a previous 7.19 M.

 

[Zerologic]

USD/JPY returns to support after disappointing US data

The Japanese Yen as one of the safe-haven currencies, strengthened again yesterday after the release of disappointing US data. USDJPY drew a bearish candle with a long body and a small shadow on the top of the candle. The price formed a high of 144.383, a low of 142.605, and a closing of 142.722. The candlestick created a low near Tuesday's low, which could be a support level in this zone.

The strengthening of the Japanese Yen was triggered by factors such as a series of economic news that increased trade tensions caused by Trump's tariff policy, giving a boost to safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen.

Yesterday's ADP Employment Change data on Wednesday showed a softening in the US private sector employment situation. The report showed an increase of only 37k jobs in May, far below the forecast of 115k jobs. This was also lower than the previous data revision of 60k. Other US economic data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May, reporting a reading of 49.9 for the ISM Services PMI, which was much lower than the expected print of 52.0. This indicates that business conditions and optimism in the US services sector have fallen into contractionary territory.

The US dollar index (DXY) which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies is still on a downward path. DXY fell from a high of 99.292 to a low of 98.673 below the EMA 20.

Meanwhile, the Fed at its June 18 meeting is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the current 425-450 with a probability of 97.9%. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September.

On the other hand, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has reaffirmed its commitment to raising interest rates in response to rising inflation.

Related to Trump's 50% tariff policy on steel and aluminum, Japan remains vulnerable to rising costs that could threaten its export-based industry. On Tuesday, Ueda told the market: "The latest tariff policy will put downward pressure on the Japanese economy through several different channels". However, he also stated that the central bank "is expected to continue raising interest rates if underlying inflation accelerates to 2% as projected."

Today, the US will release another important economic data, Unemployment Claims, which measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week; it is expected to fall to 236k from the previous revised reading of 240k. A lower actual reading could support the USD and vice versa.

 

[Zerologic]

Silver Price Draws New All-Time High Throughout 2025

Silver price on Friday soared to a new all-time high at 36,328. This value is the highest price record since 2012 and is an interesting note because Silver is one of the precious metals that are widely traded among forex traders. High volatility and profit potential make it one of the assets in forex that has high volatility. Although it is in line with the risk.

On Friday, Silver drew a bullish candle extending Thursday's increase. The price formed a high of 36,328 low of 35,585, and closed at 35,967. The price crossed the upper band, indicating a strong rally.

Silver's momentum was driven by strong industrial demand, ongoing supply shortages, and increasing investor interest as a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainty. Silver's vital role in solar energy, electronics, and electrification supports more than half of its global demand. Last week, US data showed weak US economic data, including rising jobless claims, weaker private employment, and boosted demand for safe-haven assets. However, non-farm payrolls beat estimates with a rise of 139,000 in May, although April was revised down to 147,000. In addition, Trump's policies that caused economic uncertainty also gave a boost to safe-haven assets, including Silver.

The rise in Silver prices has also boosted shares of mining companies such as Endeavor Silver (NYSE: EXK), First Majestic Silver (NYSE: AG), Hecla Mining, Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE), and more.

Gold and Silver often move in tandem. Where gold has risen by 44% from last year, and Silver has hit a new all-time high since 2012. This increase is supported by the widening tariff war by the US and consistent buying by central banks. In addition, there are large inflows into silver-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which also support Silver. According to Bloomberg, holdings in these ETFs increased by 2.2 million ounces on Wednesday. In addition, money managers have increased their bullish positions on Comex silver futures in the week ended May 23.

From a geopolitical risk perspective, gold and silver are still the favorites as safe-haven assets. The Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East that have not shown any signs of peace are increasingly giving space to safe-haven assets.

Today, there is no important news scheduled in the economic calendar at Forexfactory; bank holidays in Australia, Switzerland, France, and Germany may affect the volume of transactions in the spot forex market.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold price steady near middle band amid US-China trade talks

Gold price is moving more sideways as the progress of US-China talks improves amid rising geopolitical risks. Gold price on Tuesday drew a Doji with short wicks on top and bottom candles. Gold price formed a high of 3349 low of 3301, closing at 3322 from the opening of 3324. The current value is a support zone if referring to the previous support at 3245 near the middle band line.

US-China trade talks in London get positive sentiment from the market and stabilize the dollar. Talks in London between senior US and Chinese officials showed encouraging signs of progress, increasing risk appetite among investors, which pushed US equities higher. Easing tensions between the US and China will mean a stronger USD amid relief about the progress of the US economy. On the positive side, the US reported progress in talks with other major economies, such as India.

Expectations that China will release rare earths in volumes suggest potential relief for the US supply chain. These minerals are critical to sectors such as technology, defense, and green energy, where they are essential for products such as semiconductors, electric vehicles (EVs), and military hardware. Trade developments are expected to help maintain geopolitical stability and global economic growth projections.

Responding to the encouraging news, the US dollar index is still below the 20 EMA, DXY formed a high of 99.390 low of 98.862 with tight open and close points. Next, the market will await the release of the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May which is expected to rise from 2.3% YoY to 2.5% YoY, with US households feeling the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Meanwhile, the Fed may continue to wait and see and maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50% as estimated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool with a 99.9% probability that the Fed will maintain current interest rates at its June 18 meeting this month.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risks are providing support for safe-haven assets. US President Trump told Fox News that Iran has become much more aggressive in nuclear talks. Iranian lawmakers have accused the US and Israel of setting a “nuclear trap” ahead of planned negotiations, while former US President Donald Trump warned that further uranium enrichment by Tehran could trigger military action. This, along with Russia’s claim to control territory in east-central Ukraine, could push gold prices higher.

 

[Zerologic]

New Zealand Dollar Rises After Unfavorable US Data

The NZDUSD pair yesterday drew a long-bodied bullish candle with a small shadow at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 0.60712, a low of 0.60056, and a close of 0.60671.

Visually, the NZDUSD pair tends to draw lower highs, indicating bullish sentiment since May 12 when the price was near the lower band. The US data released on Thursday showed jobless claims were the same as the previous revision of 248k, but this was higher than the expected 242k. Meanwhile, the core PPI data was 0.1% lower than the expected 0.2%, but better than the previous revision. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services edged up 0.1 percent in May after falling 0.1 percent in April. Other inflation data released on Wednesday showed that core CPI rose 0.1% from the previous revision of 0.2% but was lower than the expected 0.3%. Meanwhile, annual CPI rose 2.4% from 2.3% previously but was still lower than the 2.5% expected.

The economic data that is less supportive of the USD has brought the USD dollar index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US dollar against six major currencies, to continue to experience downward pressure. DXY fell to 97.602 from a high of 98.519, further away from the EMA 20 line, which reflects strong bearish sentiment. The US-China trade war has eased somewhat after a framework agreement in negotiations in London. However, the market still doubts the implementation of the agreement because the trade terms announced by US President Trump with China on Wednesday did not provide what Beijing received in return, which has the potential to raise doubts about the sustainability of the trade truce.

President Donald Trump told reporters at the Kennedy Center that he was ready to send a final trade agreement, including tariffs, to trading partners who have not accepted Washington's proposal or who are not negotiating in good faith.

On the other hand, clashes in Los Angeles due to protests over immigrant raids have worsened as the federal government prepares to send 700 marines to reinforce the 2,000 National Guard personnel who have been deployed to quell the riots in Los Angeles. However, the deployment of thousands of National Guardsmen has been strongly opposed by Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and California Governor Gavin Newsom. Newsom even announced a lawsuit against President Trump for sending troops without a formal request from the state. Tensions in Los Angeles continue to rise along with protests against the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which led to riots. City residents took to the streets to protest raids on illegal immigrants carried out by federal authorities.

Today, investors will focus on the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment data released by the University of Michigan, which measures the level of the composite index based on surveyed consumers, which is expected to rise to 53.5 from the previous revision of 52.2. And Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, which measures the percentage of consumers who expect the price of goods and services to change over the next 12 months.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold crosses $3,400 amid Israel-Iran war risks

Gold prices surged to $3,446 on Friday amid heightened geopolitical risks between Israel and Iran that could trigger a longer war. Gold prices drew a long-bodied bullish candle on Friday that crossed the upper band line. Prices formed a high of 3,446, a low of 3,379, and a close of 3,433.

The rise in gold prices was driven by several factors, including geopolitical tensions: the Israel-Iran conflict triggered a rush to safe havens like gold, pushing prices closer to record highs. The weakening USD pressure also further supported the rise in gold prices. Although gold has the potential to rise, some analysts consider gold prices to be overvalued and have suggested a possible correction of 12 to 15% in the coming months.

Israeli attacks on Iranian military installations, nuclear facilities, and senior officials have heightened tensions in the region. Following the attacks, XAU/USD hit a five-week high of $3,446 before retreating slightly to current levels as traders booked profits ahead of the weekend. On the other hand, Iran's retaliatory attack on Tel Aviv has further increased the geopolitical risks in the region.

Meanwhile, the weakening of the USD is related to the US economic data released last week. Inflation in the United States continues to ease after the release of the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index figures for May. Recently, the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment survey revealed that households are increasingly optimistic about the economy, but they remain concerned about higher prices.

This week, traders will be watching the release of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting, where officials will update their economic projections on Thursday. In addition, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, housing, and employment data can help determine the direction of Gold.

The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.50% at its June 19 meeting. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range is 96.9%.

Goldman Sachs projects that the price of Gold bullion will rise to $3,700 by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026. Bank of America (BofA) estimates Gold at $4,000 in the next 12 months.

Gold prices are still expected to have the potential to rise, but the possibility of a short-term correction remains, especially when geopolitical risks subside or the USD strengthens.

 

[Zerologic]

US dollar strengthens despite weaker-than-expected retail sales data.

Yesterday, the AUDUSD pair drew a long-bodied bearish candle with a low almost the same as the preceding candle. The price formed a high of 0.65438, a low of 0.64662, and a close of 0.64736 on the FXOpen platform.

The Census Bureau reported that advance monthly retail sales fell -0.9% in the May report released yesterday. The April Business Inventories report was neutral at 0.05 at $2,656.5 B.

The mixed retail sales data brought the US dollar up. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD currency, rose around 0.68% from a low of 98.022 to a high of 98.870, approaching the EMA 20 line. The strengthening of the US dollar seems to be driven more by increasing geopolitical tensions. The Israel-Iran war indicates a greater escalation of the war involving sophisticated and destructive weapons.

Meanwhile, traders will be more cautious in the days leading up to the Fed's interest rate decision due out in the near future. Although the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, the market response could be mixed. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50% is 97.3%. Focus shifts to the updated dot plot and Chairman Jerome Powell's guidance on the interest rate path through end-2025.

News from Australia, Treasurer Jim Chalmers is scheduled to deliver a key fiscal speech on Wednesday at the National Press Club. According to Reuters, Chalmers will outline structural challenges, including sluggish productivity and long-term budget sustainability.

If the Fed keeps rates high for longer while the RBA is more on the sidelines, the widening policy divergence could eventually weigh on the AUD and limit the upside potential for the AUD/USD pair.

Today, investors will be waiting for the release of Unemployment Claims data, which could be an important economic indicator driving the market, with jobless claims expected to fall by 246k from the previous revision of 248k.

 

[Zerologic]

EUR/JPY signals upside amid Middle East geopolitical risks

The European and Japanese currency pairs yesterday drew bullish candles with shadows on top and bottom of the candles. There is a bullish engulfing signal here. The price formed a high of 167.313, a low of 166.030, and a close of 167.093.

A survey of EURJPY pair forecasts by FXStreet shows that the average analyst forecast for the 1-week has a sideways bias, the 1-month has a bearish bias, 1-quarter has a bearish bias.

The conflict in the Middle East is in the spotlight, and the Israel-Iran war could drag America into the conflict. President Donald Trump, through social media, posted a message: "We now have complete and absolute control over the skies of Iran". "Iran has great air tracking and other defense equipment, and there is a lot of it. But it is nothing compared to what is made, designed, and manufactured in the United States. Nobody does it better than the United States."

In another message, Trump wrote: "We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding.", "He's an easy target, but safe there - We won't be taking him out (killing him!), at least not yet."

The series of statements surprised many because they contradicted the stance of US officials, including Foreign Minister Marco Bulio, who insisted the US was not involved in Israel's attacks on Iran. A poll by YouGov and The Economist stated that 60 percent of Americans reject the country's intervention in the conflict between Israel and Iran. Meanwhile, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamaney, said he was not afraid of the US president's threats, which he considered ridiculous.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and updated its economic projections. On inflation, officials noted prices above the 3% threshold, which has prevented the central bank from cutting rates. In 2025, policymakers project a cut of 50 basis points (bps), and for 2026, only 25 bp.

Geopolitical risks in the Middle East appear to be favoring the USD. The US dollar index (DXY) is hovering near the 20-EMA around 99.157, trying to extend its previous gains.

ECB's Rehn said that the European Union (EU) risks a stagflation shock if the Israel-Iran crisis deepens. The recent rise in oil prices, triggered by the Middle East conflict, could trigger an inflationary spiral, pushing prices higher and prompting the central bank to take a slightly hawkish stance. However, financial market players expect the ECB to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its July monetary policy meeting.

Japan's National Core CPI is expected to rise 3.6% year-on-year from a previously revised 3.5%. Investors today will focus on BOJ Gov Ueda's speech at the Annual Meeting of the National Association of Shinkin Banks in Tokyo, for subtle hints on the next leg of monetary policy.

 

[Zerologic]

US attacks Iran's nuclear site, Bitcoin plunges to $98k

The global crypto market is under heavy pressure after the United States openly became involved in the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel. On Saturday night (21/6/2025) local time, the US launched an airstrike targeting Iran's main nuclear facility, triggering a wave of panic among digital asset investors. Bitcoin fell for the first time after the US attacked Iran's nuclear site.

US President Donald Trump stated via Truth Social that he confirmed that American fighter jets had attacked three strategic sites belonging to Iran - Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. This attack immediately shook market confidence, especially in the crypto sector which is known to be very sensitive to global uncertainty. Bitcoin - which for the past few weeks has remained above the psychological threshold, finally plunged below 100,000 US dollars, and even touched the level of 98.256 US dollars.

Trump seemed happy with his success, but the parliamentary congress had 2 conflicting opinions. The US will be dragged into an ongoing war even though it is not directly related. will cause a waste of foreign exchange.

Bitcoin's plunge signals investors are avoiding riskier assets as geopolitical uncertainty mounts. A wider escalation could see Bitcoin's value drop even lower.

The war has had a devastating impact on the region. According to Iran's official news agency, Nour News, since the start of the Israeli attack on June 13, at least 430 Iranians have been killed and 3,500 others injured. In retaliation, Iran has launched missiles that have killed 24 civilians in Israel, according to local authorities.

The US's entry into direct confrontation with Iran is even feared to be the beginning of a third world war that the international community does not expect.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that his country would not negotiate with the US as long as the attack continues. "Obviously, I cannot negotiate when our people are being bombarded with US support," Araqchi said in Istanbul while attending a meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), as quoted by Fars News. This condition creates high uncertainty in the global market, including crypto assets, which have so far been considered an alternative hedge.

 

[Zerologic]

Canadian dollar below 50-MA channel ahead of CPI release

The USDCAD pair yesterday drew a bearish candle with a rather long wick on the top of the candle, reflecting a restrained rise with stronger seller pressure. The price formed a high of 1.37979, a low of 1.37253, and a close of 1.37306.

The currency pair is on track to post a fifth straight day of gains, driven by a mix of safe-haven flows into the US dollar and concerns over the outlook for the Canadian domestic economy. The Canadian CPI is expected to rise 0.5% from a previously revised -0.1%. The median CPI year-over-year is expected to fall 3.0% from a previously revised 3.1%. The common CPI year-over-year is expected to fall 2.4% from a previously revised 2.5%.

From geopolitical risks, the US attack on three nuclear sites in Iran has an impact on oil prices. While Canada is one of the world's largest oil producers and is a significant exporter of crude oil, especially to the United States. Currency traders will also usually pay attention to oil prices, which can affect the value of the Canadian dollar.

On Monday, WTI oil prices opened with a gap up, reflecting the rise in oil prices after the US attacked Iran's nuclear sites. Tensions in the region have escalated, and Iran retaliated by launching missiles towards US bases in Qatar. Not only that, Iran also threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important trade routes for crude oil in the world. An attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman could have profound consequences for the global economy. According to 2024 data from the Energy Information Administration, around 20 million barrels of crude oil per day, or 20% of global consumption, pass through this route.

Oil prices had jumped during the US session, but as time went on, the narrative changed, with no confirmed damage or escalation beyond Iran's initial missile launches towards US bases in Qatar, market participants began to reassess the situation. Profit-taking occurred, and WTI retreated sharply below key support levels to settle near $64.64, down almost 6% from its peak.

While the impact of Iran’s retaliation remains limited, traders remain wary of any fresh signs of retaliation, particularly if U.S. assets are hit or Gulf shipping is disrupted, which could reignite price momentum.

From a fundamental Canadian economic perspective, preliminary retail sales data for May showed a sharper-than-expected contraction of 1.1%, after a modest 0.3% increase in April. This underscores weak consumer demand and adds weight to the argument for further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.

According to Statistics Canada data released on June 23, tourist arrivals have declined. The number of trips to Canada by US residents decreased by 8.9% year-on-year, while the number of trips to Canada by foreign residents decreased slightly by 0.6%.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold price falls as geopolitical risks ease

Gold price on Tuesday trading fell, drawing a long bearish candle body and shadow at the bottom of the candle. Gold price formed a high of 3369, a low of 3295, and closed at 3322. Gold price crossed the middle band and MA 50 from the upper side.

The decline in gold price may be influenced by two main factors. Powell's comments confirmed that the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates. High interest rates make non-yielding assets such as gold less attractive to investors.

Although the market is pricing in two rate cuts this year, analysts expect the Fed to start easing in September. Any change in this narrative and these expectations could contribute to Gold's next move. Powell stated before Congress that the Fed should prevent a one-time increase in the price level from becoming a sustained inflation problem by keeping inflation expectations in check.

According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting rates at its July 30 meeting is estimated at 18.6%, and the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged is 81.4%.

From the geopolitical risk factor. Trump's statement via social media confirmed the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, posting on Truth Social: "CEASE FIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!" This statement seems to have a market response that signals an easing of tensions between the Iran vs Israel war, which in turn lowered gold prices. Elsewhere in China, the Chinese central bank eased monetary policy and injected liquidity into the market.

The ceasefire has pressured Gold and Crude Oil prices as traders unload risk hedges related to potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for about 20% of global Oil supplies.

Today, investors will also focus on Powell's testimony on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.