Technical Analysis Today

[Zerologic]

USD/CNH surges after Trump tariff announcement

Financial markets have been volatile since Trump’s tariff announcement. White House report says studies have repeatedly shown tariffs are an effective tool for achieving economic and strategic objectives

The report claims that in 2024, studies found that Trump’s tariffs strengthened the US economy and led to reshoring in sectors like manufacturing and steel production.

A 2023 report by the US International Trade Commission found that Trump’s tariffs reduced Chinese imports and stimulated more US production of affected goods.

According to the Economic Policy Institute, President Trump's tariffs during his first term “have shown no apparent correlation with inflation” and have had only a temporary impact on overall prices.

The White House report stated that the media's prediction was wrong, unlike what has been feared so far about high inflation.

Despite the positive report from the White House, according to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed at its May 7 meeting is still expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% with a probability level of 91.1%.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, dropped, drawing a bearish candle with a low of 103.366, a high of 104.314, and a close of 103.802.

Today, investors will focus on US economic data on Unemployment Claims and PMI, which may get a market response.

 

[Zerologic]

Significant USD/CAD drop due to Trump tariffs

The Canadian dollar rallied sharply after the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement. USDCAD hit a 3-month low at 1.40376 by drawing a long-bodied bearish candle and a fairly long wick at the bottom of the candle. Yesterday, the price made a high of 1.43189, a low of 1.40276, and a close of 1.40822.

The Trump administration’s tariff announcement received a surprising response from the market. The USD came under pressure, instead of acting as a safe-haven in the past. The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of six major currencies, plunged with a wide gap to a low of 101.267 from a high of 103.379. The gap was quite deep, from the previous close of 103.691 to open at 103.148. The RSI shows that the DXY is currently in the oversold zone.

Unlike normal times, the USD often acts as a safe-haven currency with investors rushing to buy USD, but these are not normal times. The US Dollar is under pressure from the Trump administration's latest tariffs, which will be implemented in a gradual but rapid period.

The Trump administration will impose a 10% across-the-board tariff on all goods imported into the US starting April 5. The “reciprocal tariffs,” calculated as the ratio of US imports to exports on a per-country basis, will go into effect on April 9.

Canada has retaliated with its own potential tariffs if US trade falls outside its own USMCA limits, although Canada and Mexico have been granted additional tariff relief.

Fed officials, on the other hand, have been outspoken in warning that the tariffs could hurt expectations of a rate cut. The probability of the Fed keeping rates on hold at its May 7 meeting has fallen from 91% to 75.4%, according to the CME Group’s Fedwatch tool, given the impact of the Trump administration’s tariff opening report.

The forex market, however, is highly sensitive to recent news update. Investors will be looking ahead to the release of US and Canadian economic data due later today, including the NFP and Unemployment Rate, as well as any subtle hints from Fed Chair Powell's speech on the outlook for US interest rates and the US economy.

 

[Zerologic]

Trump Tariff Impact, WTI Prices Plunge to Low 60.21

WTI oil prices have declined consecutively for four days, with two days of long declines. On Friday, April 4, WTI oil prices plunged, drawing a long-bodied bearish candle with a wick at the bottom of the candle. WTI oil formed a high of 66.56, a low of 60.21, and a closing of 62.03. The decline in prices for four consecutive days even managed to cross the lower band line, indicating very high volatility.

The decline in oil prices aligns with the implementation of the reciprocal tariff policy announced by the Trump administration, which has sparked concerns about a global economic slowdown.

Although the Trump administration has prohibited affected countries from retaliating against the tariff policy, a trade war may be inevitable which in turn worsens the international trade environment.

A potential tariff war between the US and China will further worsen the outlook for oil demand. China has taken retaliatory steps against Trump's tariff policy by imposing a 34% tariff on American goods starting April 10 in retaliation after President Donald Trump imposed high tariffs on goods from China.

On the other hand, Trump considered his policies to have worked effectively and was proud of the US employment, which he said had soared. The US Department of Labor said there were 228,000 jobs last month, far more than the predicted 130,000. On the other hand, the unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%, with average earnings growing 0.3% in March to USD 36, or slightly higher than February.

Meanwhile, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged the US and its trading partners to work constructively to resolve trade tensions and reduce uncertainty. She warned that the higher import tariffs announced by President Trump were clearly a significant risk to the global outlook at a time of sluggish growth.

Another reason for the decline in oil prices was that OPEC+ surprisingly announced that they would increase production by 411 thousand barrels per day in May.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold price plunges amid trade war and global risk sentiment

Trump's reciprocal tariff policy has had a tremendous impact on the financial market. Many stocks have plunged after President Donald Trump implemented tariffs. Gold has depreciated for three consecutive days, drawing bearish candles. Yesterday, gold closed lower at 2956 near the 50 MA, which could be a support zone in this area. The price has formed a high of 3054, a low of 2956, and a close of 2982 on the FXOpen platform. The long body of the candlestick reflects the high volatility that has occurred.

The impact of President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday brought the US dollar and other safe-haven currencies after the USD hit a six-month low. The dollar index (DXY) is now at a high of 103.584, up from a low of 102.540, which had reached its lowest level at 101.267.

Last Friday, China retaliated by imposing 34% tariffs on all US imports, triggering turmoil in financial markets as most global equity indices posted losses. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs appear to have caused most markets to plunge, but on the other hand, US Treasury yields have risen, with the 10-year bond up almost fifteen basis points to 4.15% at the last update on April 7. The 20-year bond also rose by 0.15% and the 30-year by 0.17%.

Ahead of the week, the US economic docket will feature the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, followed by the release of consumer and producer inflation data.

Tariff-related developments and trends across all assets will dominate the scene over the next few days. At the moment, the USD is still likely to see some uptick in demand, but that could change given the main fear is that tariffs will lead to higher inflation along with an economic recession. Markets are predicting a bleak future for the US, which will have implications for all other major economies.

 

[Zerologic]

Australian dollar strengthens as Donald Trump suddenly delays tariffs for 90 days

Donald Trump's tariff retort has rocked financial markets again. United States (US) President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on implementing new tariffs for several countries on Wednesday local time.

The delay has caused the USD to weaken again, the AUD/USD pair is seen rising, drawing a bullish candle that is longer than the previous bearish candle. The price formed a high of 0.61758 low of 0.59134, closing at 0.61473.

In Trump's post on Truth Social, he decided to delay the implementation of tariffs in full to more than 75 countries because these countries have contacted US officials to negotiate to find the right solution to the trade problems that he has conveyed in the implementation of the new duties.

Trump also wrote that he would raise tariffs on imported goods from China to 125%, effective immediately. The tariff increase for China was imposed because Beijing was considered to be less respectful of the World Market.

On the other hand, China has again retaliated by raising import tariffs on US goods to 80% from 34%, which will take effect on April 10.

Fed officials noted that uncertainty surrounding trade dynamics and inflation limits their ability to move quickly on interest rates. Barkin of the Richmond Fed and Musalem of the St. Louis Fed emphasized that tariffs complicate the policy landscape and could delay future interest rate adjustments.

According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged has increased by 83.0%, while the probability of a rate cut is only 17.0%, which had previously increased due to Trump's reciprocal policy.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, had fallen to a low of 101.837, which then rose to close at 102.993 in response to the tariff delay. Visually, DXY is still moving below EMA 2,0, reflecting bearish sentiment.

Today, investors will focus on several US economic indicators for CPI and unemployment claims, and RBA Gov Bullock Speaks Due to speak at the Chief Executive Women 40th Anniversary Melbourne Annual Dinner.

 

[Zerologic]

The Swiss Franc is getting stronger amidst the trade war, which triggers uncertainty

The USD/CHF currency pair plunged to its lowest level from 20024 to 2025 at 0.82311 amidst global economic uncertainty amid the US-China trade war. As the country with the largest economy in the world, this tension has led to concerns because the economic downturn of the two countries could affect the economies of other countries.

Yesterday, USD/CHF drew a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 0.85747, a low of 0.82311, and closed at 0.82456. The upper band and lower band that are increasingly moving apart reflect the very high market volatility in Swiss Franc trading, which is one of the safe-haven currencies supported by Trump's tariff policy retiroca.

During the European session, the USD weakened against the Swiss Franc (CHF) amidst increasing trade tensions between the two largest economies, the US and China. The trade war started by Donald Trump with his tariff policy get a response from China.

More than 70 countries affected by Trump’s tit-for-tat tariffs have contacted Trump and are hoping for negotiations, prompting Trump to announce a 90-day pause on many new tariffs on trading partners to 10% to allow for trade negotiations with those countries.

However, US-China trade relations have reached crisis levels, with Trump raising tariffs to 125% on Chinese imports on Thursday, up from 104% imposed just a day earlier.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell sharply amid the poor US CPI data. The DXY declined sharply to a low of 100.700 from a high of 103.027, reflecting the dollar’s continued decline since President Donald Trump took office in the White House. The DXY has fallen from a high of 110.176 to a recent low of 100.700 in January-April 2025.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) fell 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February. Over the past 12 months, the all-goods index has risen 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustments. The energy index fell 2.4 percent in March, as the gasoline index dropped 6.3 percent, more than the electricity and natural gas index rose. In contrast, the food index rose 0.4 percent in March as the food at home index rose 0.5 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month. The all-goods index, except food and energy, rose 0.1 percent in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February. Meanwhile, unemployment claims were as expected at 223k, up from the previously revised 219k.

Today, investors will be waiting for the Bureau of Labor Statistics to release its Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which is expected to rise 0.3 percent from -0.1 percent. This index measures changes in prices of finished goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy.

 

[Zerologic]

USD/CNH volatility increases amid the US-China trade war

The Chinese Yuan currency pair has experienced increased volatility amid the US-China trade war since President Trump implemented a reciprocal tariff policy against all countries considered detrimental to US interests.

Last week, USDCNH experienced increased market volatility, along with President Trump's implementation of the tariff policy. Yuan Chona weakened and reached a high of 7.4288 on April 8. However, the weakening of the Chinese Yuan did not continue and turned stronger against the USD after Trump announced a 90-day delay in the tariff policy following 70 countries requesting tariff negotiations. This policy seems to be decreasing investor confidence and causing the USD to weaken. USDNH has been bearish for three consecutive days. On Friday, the pair formed a high of 7.3354 and a low of 7.2784, closing at 7.2784, trying to cross the middle band line from the upper side.

The dollar index and dollar index futures each fell about 0.7% in Asian trading, continuing the sharp decline overnight. The dollar index also fell below 100 points, approaching the lowest level last seen in April 2022.

Investors appear to be worried about the possibility of a US recession, especially when President Donald Trump raised tariffs on China to 145%, while China imposed tariffs of 125% on Friday, April 1,1, from the previous 84% announced on Wednesday, April 9, on US goods.

The USD was further pressured by weaker-than-expected consumer inflation data for March. The dollar index (DXY) that tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies fell below the 100-day low of 99.014, closing at 99.783 on Friday.

The Fed is likely to show a very cautious stance on Trump's policies, even though analysts expect the Fed to cut interest rates sooner than expected due to the increasing economic pressures from the trade war.

The continued decline in US Treasury prices, amid doubts about the US economy under Trump, also added pressure on the dollar. Yields jumped after a massive sell-off in US Treasuries. The sell-off of US bonds is estimated to have reached US$29 trillion. This massive sell-off has rekindled the Bond Vigilante trend, which reflects a massive sell-off in the bond market due to investor concerns over inconsistent government policies. Their actions have caused yields to rise, which makes government borrowing more expensive. Their actions are a kind of warning from the market.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold consolidation is not over yet, but positive traction may support it

Yesterday, gold was traded with a small-bodied bullish candle, which was almost the same as the previous bearish candle. Gold consolidated near its all-time high above 3200. XAUUSD formed a high of 3233, a low of 3207, a close of 3228.

Gold selling is still ongoing, but buying is also within normal limits. Investors seem to still be worried about the potential economic impact of the escalating US-China trade war, which in turn supports safe-haven assets such as Gold.

China increased tariffs on US imports to 125% on Friday in retaliation for Trump's decision to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to an unprecedented 145%. This keeps Gold prices close to their all-time highs reached on Monday.

Analysts are concerned about the development of the US-China trade war as the US still imports some hard-to-replace materials from China which has weakened US economic confidence and increased fears of a US recession along with bets that the Fed will soon resume its interest rate cut cycle and reduce the interest rate on loans at least three times through 2025. Low interest rates are beneficial for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Global risk sentiment improved after the White House announced on Friday that smartphones, computers, and other electronics would be temporarily exempted from reciprocal tariffs. Trump said on Monday he was considering a possible exemption for the automotive industry from the 25% tariffs because companies need more time to switch to parts made in the US.

The temporary exemption has fueled market uncertainty, as Trump also threatened to impose tariffs on pharmaceutical products in the near future.

The performance of the US dollar showed a slight recovery near the low of 99.014 formed on April 11. DXY on April 15 rose to a high of 100.276 low of 99.479 and closed at 100.159. Despite the recovery, the transaction volume has not been able to reverse the situation; DXY is still moving below the EMA 20.

Today, investors will wait for US economic data, retail sales are expected to rise 1.3% from the previous 0.2%. Elsewhere, the BOC will release the overnight rate, which is expected to remain unchanged at 2.75%.

 

[Zerologic]

AUD/USD extends gains, could it reach the 200-day MA?

The AUDUSD currency pair on Wednesday drew a bullish candle with a lower high. The price formed a high of 0.63911 low of 0.63222, and closed at 0.63727. This increase extended the bullish sentiment of AUDUSD that started on April 9, where AUDUSD collapsed at a low of 0.559134.

The bullish sentiment on AUDUSD gives hope that it can reach the resistance level based on the 200-day MA at 0.64795. However, it must be able to pass the resistance of 0.63084, which is the high price on February 21. The previous increase was driven by optimism around China's GDP, which grew 5.4% year-on-year in Q1, beating estimates. However, this rebound remains fragile amid ongoing US-China trade tensions and the Aussie's role as a proxy for Chinese demand.

The trade war remains a key issue for the Australian dollar, given Australia’s close economic ties with China and its heavy reliance on commodity exports, which increases its exposure to these tensions. President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs of between 10% and 50% has sparked talk of retaliatory measures, raising fears of a full-blown trade war. Such a development could dampen global growth, push up consumer prices, and complicate central bank policy decisions.

The US-China trade war has been the most in the spotlight for economists, with President Trump imposing tariffs of 145% on certain Chinese goods. China retaliated shortly after with tariffs of 125% on US goods imported into China, up from 84%. This has again angered the US, which has threatened to impose tariffs of 245%, as China has retaliated with increased tariffs.

Australia’s strategists say the Australian dollar remains a barometer of the US-China trade dispute. The RBA is likely to ease policy in May, but the main driver of the AUD will be developments in the commodity trade. Domestically, the Australian economy is facing pressure from global decoupling, and an expected RBA interest rate cut in May could limit upside potential.

The dollar index, which is the benchmark for the USD against six major currencies, is still weakening. The DXY shows a bearish sentiment with a bearish candle with a low of 99.174 failing to extend its recovery after reaching a high of 100.104. The DXY is moving away from the 20-day MA, which reflects a strong bearish sentiment.

US retail sales showed an increase of 1.4% MoM in March, slightly above expectations, while retail sales YoY rose 4.6%. On the other hand, China's Q1 GDP surprised to the upside at 5.4% YoY; March activity indicators also beat estimates.

The RBA is expected to cut rates in May, although China's proxy status makes the AUD vulnerable to external headwinds. However, Governor Michele Bullock highlighted the challenge of bringing inflation back within the 2-3% target. This decision is generally considered hawkish, reducing the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut at the May 20 meeting from 80% to 70%.

Today, investors will highlight some important economic data, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate in Australia, which may trigger the movement of AUD today. On the other hand, the US will also release Unemployment Claims data, which is expected to increase slightly. And what is awaited is the speech of Fed Chair Powell, who speaks on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Chicago, which may give subtle hints that are hawkish or dovish and can trigger market speculation.

 

[Zerologic]

Oil prices rise in response to US sanctions on Iran

WTI oil prices rose, breaking out of the consolidation zone, extending the previous bullish candle, and successfully breaking through the resistance zone of 61.28. Yesterday, WTI oil prices with the symbol XTIUSD drew a long-bodied bullish candle with few shadows. Oil prices formed a high of 64.17, a low of 61.95, and a closing at 63.65.

Oil prices plunged to a low of 54.72 on April 9 but quickly rebounded to a high of 62.49 on the same day. Fluctuations in oil prices occurred along with Trump's tariff policy, which had an impact on several financial markets. Another reason is a rumour that OPEC+ will increase supply in May.

Recently, oil prices rose due to concerns about a tighter supply chain following new US sanctions on Iran. On Wednesday, the Trump administration announced new sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports, including measures against a "teapot" refinery based in China. The US move is aimed at suppressing Iranian exports amid rising tensions over its nuclear program. According to a statement from the US Treasury Department, the sanctions are intended to prevent Chinese imports of Iranian oil as President Trump ramps up his “maximum pressure” campaign, which aims to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero.

Elsewhere, OPEC said it had received new plans from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and other producers planning additional production cuts to offset previous overproduction.

On the oil demand side, crude oil prices are supported by optimism amid US-China trade negotiations. China has shown a willingness to engage in talks, provided several key conditions are met. Oil prices have risen more than 2% this week, positioning themselves for the first weekly gain this month.

However, despite the support from the oil price increase, analysts are still skeptical about further gains as OPEC, the International Energy Agency (IEA), Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan have all lowered their oil demand forecasts due to trade tensions caused by the trade war. Elsewhere, the WTO has also lowered its global trade forecast from previously projecting a 3.0% expansion to a 0.2% decline this year.

 

[Zerologic]

Market sluggish due to bank holiday, EUR/USD slightly up in weekend trading

The weakening dollar index (DXY) impacts the EURUSD currency pair following the rising channel. In Friday's trading session, EURUSD drew a bullish candle with a body almost the same as the previous bearish candle. The price formed a high of 1.13978, a low of 1.13573, and a closing of 1.13929.

The EURUSD price movement on Friday tended to be flat, which was seen on the hourly timeframe from the emergence of the Bollinger band squeeze, which reflected very low market volatility. Many European and Australian banks were closed to commemorate Good Friday, which has significantly reduced forex trading volume and caused the market to be sluggish. Today, many banks are mostly closed to commemorate Easter Day, which is predicted to have an impact on the sluggish currency market.

Although there was no high-impact news release today, investors' focus is still more on the United States' (US) controversial trade policies. Although the dollar index (DXY), which is used as a benchmark for the USD against six major currencies, has weakened significantly, the Trump administration seems to be moving forward with imposing tariffs on Chinese ships docked in US ports, further escalating the China-US trade war. The two largest economies could cause a global economic downturn.

Trump’s massive tariffs on many countries, including Europe, could change the international trade landscape in the long term. As stated by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who asserted that the traditional idea of a united West is a thing of the past. She indicated that the European Union (EU) no longer sees the United States (US) as its most important trading partner, following the massive tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.

Ursula’s comments came after the Trump administration imposed a massive 20% tariff on all EU goods and a 25% tariff on all car imports in an attempt to eliminate what Washington sees as a large trade deficit. The EU responded by introducing a series of retaliatory tariffs of 25% on US imports. Trump then announced a 90-day pause on most global tariffs last week.

The impact of Trump’s tariffs has been that more countries are trying to approach the EU as their trading partners. Ursula said that trade with the US is only 13%, and 87% of world trade is done with other countries.

Earlier this month, French President Emmanuel Macron urged European companies to halt new investments in the US, asking, “What message are we sending by investing billions of dollars… while they keep hitting us?”

Meanwhile, the US also appears to be experiencing political turmoil, with Trump even threatening to dismiss Powell over his dissenting views on tariffs and interest rate policy. While market participants did not react much to this statement, recently, White House Senior Advisor Kevin Hassett confirmed that “Trump is studying whether firing Powell from the Fed is an option.”

The dollar index (DXY) is currently trading at a low of 99.229, although still within its previous low range but is well below its 20 EMA, indicating strong bearish sentiment, with the DXY likely to fall further if it breaks the low of 99.104.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold prices are getting higher amid the US-China trade war

Although some banks in Europe closed yesterday to celebrate Easter, it seems that this did not stop the increase in gold prices. Gold again formed a new all-time high at 3430 after successfully breaking the prior ATH of 3357. The gold price drew a long bullish body candle with almost no shadow on the top and bottom of the candle. The gold price formed a high of 3430 low of 3328, closing at 3423.

Will gold soon reach 3500 as some analysts hope, or are they wary of a possible reversal?

The main US-China trade war has created market uncertainty and fear of recession. Gold, as a safe-haven asset, benefits from market uncertainty. However, the gold price also fluctuates; when the price is considered overvalued, it allows some investors to release gold to take profit. This could cause a temporary reversal if the market releases large amounts of gold.

Recently, China threatened countries negotiating tariffs with the Trump administration. China said that the soft approach would ultimately fail on both sides and harm the other party. They also emphasized that negotiations conducted by several countries with the US would sacrifice the interests of that country. Furthermore, China threatened to take retaliatory action against countries that negotiate tariffs that sacrifice China's interests.

Almost all countries were imposed a base import tariff of 10% by Trump, while China imposed a base tariff of up to 145% and a reciprocal tariff of up to 245%.. China then responded with a 125% tariff on imported goods from the US.

Meanwhile, in the US, the feud between Powell and Trump has become a hot issue in the country, reflecting the political turmoil over the country's economic instability. Trump threatened to fire Powell because Trump was dissatisfied with the Fed, which was burning amid the polemic of Trump's tariff policy. Trump has repeatedly said that he wants interest rate cuts to help stimulate economic growth, along with the tariff policy he has implemented. However, the Fed has not yet cut interest rates. On the other hand, the Fed is being more cautious in its interest rate policy because the inflation target has not been achieved amidst a tariff policy that is predicted to cause an increase in inflation.

The Fed's current interest rate is 4.50%. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its May 7 meeting with a probability level of 96.3%.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six other major currencies, is increasingly slumping to a low of 97.92 after breaking a low of 99.222. The DXY price is increasingly moving away from the EMA 20, reflecting strong bearish sentiment even though the RSI has pointed to level 23, which is the oversold zone level.

 

[Zerologic]

Silver Price Rises Despite Gold Price Drop

Yesterday, we witnessed something different between gold and silver. These two precious metals usually have a positive correlation, meaning if the gold price rises, then the silver price rises, and vice versa. If gold falls, then silver falls. However, a different condition occurred on April 4, Wednesday, the silver price soared, on the other hand, the gold price fell, which means there is a negative correlation between the two precious metals. Yesterday, silver drew a long-bodied bullish candle with a shadow at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 33,668 low of 32,091, and closed at 33,562. Elsewhere, the gold price plunged to a low of 3260 in a two-day decline in a row.

Why did this happen? If we look at the history of price changes, when the gold price rose gradually in succession from April 9 and reached a new all-time high of 3500, on the other hand, the Silver price moved more in the range of support 32.00 and resistance 33.00. As many analysts predict the price of gold can reach 3500 soon, this value is the target value of many large investors, and when the price of gold is considered overvalued, some traders take profit taking action and diversify by adding portfolios to other assets such as Silver, Bitcoin which are experiencing a price spike.

Analysts estimate that the increase in Silver prices and the fall in Gold were triggered by the easing of the US-China trade war, from the statement of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who stated that there would be a decrease in tensions in the trade war with China. In a meeting with investors held by JPMorgan Chase. In the meeting, Bessent said, no one thought that the current status quo could be maintained. He further added that if negotiations resulted in an agreement in the next two to three years, it would be a big win.

The response in the US market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1,016.57 points (2.66%) and closed at 39,186.98 points. The S&P 500 recorded an increase of 2.51% and closed at 5,287.76 points. While the Nasdaq Composite soared 2.71% and ended at 16,300.42 points. In contrast to gold, which received negative support from the increase in the Wall Street index, silver surprisingly jumped after breaking through the resistance level of 33.00. In addition to the reason for diversifying investment in silver, the increase was also triggered by increasing demand in industries such as Electric Vehicles (EVs), electronics, power and cable, mining, etc. US stocks closed higher on Wednesday, as easing U.S.-China trade tensions and President Trump's assurance that he will not remove Fed Chairman Jerome Powell boosted sentiment.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar against six major currencies, rose to a high of 99.939, extending Tuesday's prior bullish candle. Currently, the DXY value is still below the 20 EMA, which may be a dynamic resistance amid bearish sentiment.

Today, investors will be waiting for the release of US Unemployment Claims news, which is expected to increase by 222k from the previous 215k. This data is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor market conditions and is a major consideration in controlling monetary policy.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold prices are reluctant to rise higher but still hold above the 3200 price level

After gold prices reached a new all-time high of 3500, they significantly fell for two consecutive days to reach a low of 3260. However, after that, the decline in gold paused at that level and tried to recover. Prices are still moving in the range of 2600-3370 in the two trading days last weekend.

Gold prices drew a bearish candle at the end of the market session by forming a high of 3370 low of 3265, closing at 3318.

Although the dollar index (DXY) weakened slightly, it did not seem to have a high impact on gold. DXY fell slightly from a high of 99.885 to a low of 99.587 below EMA 20. In the three days of the market, DXY movements tended to be in the range of low 98.863 to high 99.939.

Gold prices seem quite sensitive to Trump's policies and their developments regarding the results of these policies. Along with the decline in gold prices, Trump stated that trade negotiations with China were going very well, which statement is estimated to have caused a weakening of more than 1% for Gold on that day.

According to a WSJ report, the Trump administration is considering cutting tariffs on Chinese goods to de-escalate the trade conflict. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has acknowledged that current tariff levels are unsustainable for both China and the U.S.

Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, China is considering suspending 125% tariffs on some US imports, including medical equipment and aircraft leases.
US Consumer Sentiment deteriorated in April, according to the University of Michigan (UoM), which reported its fourth-lowest reading since the late 1970s.

This week, traders are watching the release of the US JOLTS report for March, the first reading of Q1 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the ISM Manufacturing PMI, and the April Nonfarm Payrolls figures. These high-impact news releases are of concern to traders because they can have a high impact on market responses.

The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its May 7 meeting with a 90.3% probability according to the Fedwatch tool by CME Group. US 10-year treasury bonds fell slightly -0.05% to 4.255% according to CNBC data.

 

[Zerologic]

Amid the US-China trade war, USD/CNH falls to 7.2563

The trade war involving the world's two largest economies, the US and China, is in the market spotlight alongside Trump's tariffs on many other countries. It started with Trump threatening China with high trade tariffs, then China retaliated with similar actions for US goods, further increasing trade tensions between the two countries, the impact of which may affect other countries that are dependent on the two largest economies.

The Chinese Yuan currency traded in the offshore market had weakened to 7.4288 on April 8, when Trump began to apply trade tariffs to many countries. The USD looked strong at that time, marked by the CNH weakening for three consecutive days. However, the weakening of the CNH did not last long. The price then fell again for three consecutive days and reached a low of 7.2784 on April 11. After that, the USDCNH pair moved more in the range, slowly leaning towards strengthening the Renminbi.

Despite being threatened by Trump with some tariffs, Chinese policymakers expressed their optimism about economic growth. When the US imposed new tariffs, China retaliated with tariffs on US goods. This action again made Trump renew higher tariffs, even though China faced tariffs of up to 245% because it retaliated with 125% tariffs on the US.

China gave a different response from a number of other countries who wanted negotiations and finally there was a 90-day delay in the process by Trump.

Investing.com reports that Zhao Chenxin, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s state planner, said he was “very confident” the country would hit its economic growth target of around 5% for 2025.

Others from the International Monetary Fund, Goldman Sachs and UBS have all recently revised down their growth forecasts for China through 2025 and into 2026, citing the impact of Trump’s tariffs – none of them expect the economy to hit Beijing’s official growth target.

The trade war comes at a time when China is struggling with deflation due to slow income growth and a prolonged property crisis, analysts expect Beijing to provide more monetary and fiscal stimulus to support growth.

The US and China will both release key economic data today that could get some attention and trigger volatility, with China’s PMI and the US releasing GDP, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, and Core PCE price index, key fundamental indicators.

 

[Zerologic]

Bitcoin is up at 97428. Are investors starting to choose riskier assets over safe-haven assets?

BTCUSD drew a bullish candle on May 1 with a higher close than the previous high. The price formed a high of 97428 low of 93991 close of 96497 on the FXOpen platform. BTCUSD has been moving in a daily range for more than a week of trading. On the other hand, the gold price is down at a low of 3201 at the time of writing, indicating a negative correlation with Bitcoin. This is quite interesting because while gold is moving more in a bullish sentiment, Bitcoin is moving more in a bearish sentiment.

Meanwhile, the Dollar Index (DXY) extended gains at 100.375, slightly below the 20 EMA. A break of the dynamic resistance of the 20 EMA allowed the DXY to find new resistance near 102.575 based on the 50 EMA. Meanwhile, the RSI line drew an upward channel at the 43 level, reflecting the price moving away from the oversold level, although still below the downtrend level.

The increasing interest of investors in Bitcoin can be seen from the fear and greed index indicator at 51, although this is a neutral level, it has increased from a value of 26 when Bitcoin fell.

Latest news, Micro Strategy continues its mission to collect as much Bitcoin as possible. This was reported by the official account of Strategy's leader, Michael Saylor, via the X platform on Monday (4/21/2025). Last week, the company again bought Bitcoin in large quantities, worth more than US$ 555 million. Based on data from Lookonchain, Strategy has bought 6,556 BTC at an average price of US$ 84,785 per coin. With this purchase, their total Bitcoin holdings have now reached 538,200 BTC, worth around US$ 46.83 billion

Previously, MicroStrategy stopped buying Bitcoin when the value of Bitcoin collapsed to a low of around 74k. According to the BitcoinTreasuries.net site, Strategy now owns more than 2 percent of the total Bitcoin circulating in the world. This makes them the largest Bitcoin holder among public companies.

On the other hand, the US economy is contracting. Tuesday's GDP report showed an unexpected contraction of a 0.3% annualized pace, missing the expected 0.4% growth, indicating stronger chances of entering a stage of stagflation. Meanwhile, the Fed is still reluctant to cut interest rates due to high inflation due by Trump's tariff policy. Powell's stance of being reluctant to lower interest rates has even been threatened with dismissal by Trump, who considered Powell too slow.

US Unemployment Claims also increased by 241k, higher than the expected 234k and the previous revision of 223k. Meanwhile, the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) revealed Manufacturing PMI at 48.7%, 0.3 percentage point lower compared to the 49 percent recorded in March. Services PMI at 50.8%, indicating expansion for the 55th time in 58 months since recovery from the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession began in June 2020. Hospital PMI at 51% in March, a 5-percentage point decrease from the February reading of 56 percent.

Today, the US will release important news on Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings, which are important economic indicators for investors to pay attention to.

 

[Zerologic]

USD/CHF steady ahead of CPI data release

USDCHF on Friday drew a bearish candle with shadows on the upper and lower sides, where the lower shadow is longer than the upper shadow. The price formed a high of 0.83180 low of 0.82057 and closed at 0.82539.

The Swiss Franc pair weakened as the US Dollar continued its correction after the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April in early trading, but the Swiss Franc eventually strengthened to close lower than the opening price.

The NFP report showed that the economy added 177k new jobs, much higher than the estimate of 130k, but slightly lower than March's reading of 185k. The Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.2%, as expected.

The Fed is predicted to keep interest rates on hold despite President Trump trying to pressure the Fed to cut rates soon. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed holding rates at 4.50% is 96.8% at its May 7 meeting.

Trump wrote via Truth.Social "Gasoline prices just hit $1.98 a gallon, lowest in years, grocery prices (and eggs!) are down, energy is down, mortgage rates are down, employment is strong, and lots of other good news, as billions of dollars are flowing in from tariffs. As I said, we are just in the transition phase, just getting started!!! Consumers have been waiting years to see prices come down. No inflation, the Fed must lower rates!!!

The Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against a basket of six major currencies on Friday drew a bearish candle with an open of 100.179 high of 100.328 low of 99.397 close of 100.036. The DXY tried to rise but was held back by the 20 EMA, which acted as dynamic resistance at 100.471.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc's performance in the last week's movement tended to be mixed, with steady movement in the market range of 0.81953 - 0.83346 near the middle band line.

Today ahead of the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the Swiss Franc is slightly lower than the open. The Swiss CPI is expected to grow by 0.2% month-on-month after remaining flat in March.

 

[Zerologic]

Ahead of unemployment data, NZD/USD rises to 0.60133

The New Zealand dollar rose yesterday, drawing a medium-bodied bullish candle with a small shadow at the bottom of the candle. The pair formed a high of 0.60133 low of 0.59435, and closed at 0.60047.

In the Asian market, the New Zealand dollar fell to a low of 0.59435 from the previous open of 0.59650 along with disappointing Chinese economic data. China's services sector grew at its weakest pace since September, with the Caixin Services Purchasing Managers' Index in April falling to 50.7 from 51.9 in March, well below the forecast of 51.7.

The New Zealand dollar is influenced by the Chinese economy as the country is New Zealand's largest trading partner; the China-US trade war could affect the New Zealand economy due to trade correlations across the countries.

The dollar index (DXY) is still under pressure, moving below the EMA 20. The DXY, which tracks the performance of the US dollar against six major currencies, drew a bearish candle yesterday, falling from a high of 100.097 to a low of 99.172. The weakening of the US dollar against other major currencies indicates that this currency is losing its power or level of confidence as a safe-haven currency. The USD's performance has been poor during the Trump administration so far.

The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its next rate release at 4.50%, despite President Trump trying to pressure Powell. However, Powell is expected to budge, according to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the possibility of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged is 96.8% while the forecast for a cut is only 3.1%.

The US-China trade war is still a concern in NZDUSD trading, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump at the weekend about approaching a trade deal. However, Trump rejected any immediate talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. China's Ministry of Commerce confirmed that they were reviewing the US proposal to restart negotiations.

Today, New Zealand will release data on the unemployment rate and employment change, which are important indicators of the New Zealand economy. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to rise to 5.3% from the previous 5.1%. If the actual value is lower than the forecast, it means that the economy is improving, which in turn can affect the New Zealand dollar. Employment Change is expected to rise 0.1%, a higher-than-expected actual reading is good for the currency.

 

[Zerologic]

Canadian dollar weakens on US-UK trade deal

The Canadian dollar declined on Thursday, and the USDCAD currency pair rose, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 1.39329 low of 1.38131, and closed at 1.39188.

Progress in the US-UK trade deal has given a boost to the broad market sentiment towards the US dollar. The US dollar (USD) is in broad demand on hopes that the Trump administration will speed up the signing of a trade deal to avoid self-imposed trade tariffs.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies, rose 0.77% from a low of 99.609 to a high of 100.763, trying to cross the 20 EMA and giving an indication of a bullish trend transition. The RSI drew an ascending channel at the 47 level, potentially crossing the neutral 50 level.

While details of the deal are scarce, the Trump administration rushed to announce a forthcoming trade deal with the United Kingdom (UK) on Thursday, fueling market expectations that President Trump will find a way to avoid self-imposed tariffs. Despite the impending trade deal, all goods imported into the US from the UK are still subject to a 10% tariff. The exemption is for key UK goods, such as refined ethanol, which the US has not imported from the UK for more than 15 years.

While US-Canada trade tensions remain high, the US relies heavily on key imports from Canada, including assembled cars, auto parts, light crude oil from the Alberta oilsands, and critical crop fertilizers. Ninety percent of US potash supplies are imported, as the country cannot produce enough to meet its internal demand. A grace period for reciprocal tariffs expires on June 9, following a 90-day tariff moratorium.

Today, investors are awaiting the release of Canadian employment data. Employment Change is expected to rise 6.1k from a previously revised -32.6k. And the Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 6.8% from the previously revised 6.7%, according to forexfactory.

 

[Zerologic]

USDCNH opens with a wide bearish gap today

The USDCNH price movement last week tended to move in bullish sentiment due to the strengthening of the US dollar amid news of the US-UK trade deal, which supported the strengthening of the US dollar. On Friday, the USDCNH price drew a small-bodied bearish candle with a short wick on the top candle. The price formed a high of 7.2526, a low of 7.2338, closing at 7.2383, moving between the middle and lower bands.

At the opening of the market today, USDCNH experienced a bearish gap where the price opened at 7.2226, far below Friday's close at 7.2383. The strengthening of the Chinese currency was supported by stronger-than-expected Chinese trade data for April, which showed Beijing's export growth remained strong amid fierce tariff exchanges with the US.

Last Saturday, according to CNBC, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly met in Geneva, Switzerland, to negotiate the two countries' tariff policies. During his visit to Switzerland this time, Prime Minister He Lifeng is also reported to have met with WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala in Geneva. The WTO is under the UN and has so far acted as a trade supervisor among its member countries.

The outcome of the meeting has not been revealed. According to Reuters, the details of the location of the meeting, which took place in the Swiss diplomatic area, were not disclosed to the public. However, as reported by Reuters, after the lunch break, the two delegations were said to have returned to the residence of the Swiss Ambassador to the UN, located in Cologny, although smiling when leaving the hotel, Bessent refused to speak to reporters.

Trump himself, through a post on the Truth Social social media on Friday (9/5), signaled that the tariff policy might be reviewed. United States (US) President Donald Trump proposed an 80% tariff on Chinese goods ahead of negotiations between the two countries.

The fierce US-China tariff war has become a hot topic in the financial market because the two countries have the world's largest economies. The tension of the tariff war was started by Trump after announcing a new, higher import tariff policy against various countries, including China.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar against six other major currencies, showed a decline on Friday by drawing a bearish candle with a wick on the top and bottom of the candle. DXY formed a high of 100.862 low of 100.086 close of 100.424. Although it has crossed the EMA 20 but the reversal has not occurred fully. RSI is now at level 47, the price trend is still below the downtrend level.

Today one tentative news will be released by China regarding new loans, which measures the value of new yuan-denominated loans issued to consumers and businesses during the previous month, estimated to increase 710 B from the previous revision of 364 B.