Technical Analysis Today

[Zerologic]

USD/CHF falls below 0.80000 amid weakening US dollar

The safe-haven Swiss franc fell yesterday, drawing a bearish candle with a rather long body and a small shadow at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 0.80488 low of 0.79792, and closed at 0.80024. This decline further strengthened the value of the Swiss franc throughout 2025 and even became the highest exchange rate since 2015 against the US dollar.

Investors still seem worried about the negative impact of Trump's tariff policy and the added pressure on the US dollar. US President Trump rocked the market on Wednesday, calling the Fed Chairman "the worst" and "a person with an average mentality" and suggesting that he might name his successor well before the end of his term, which falls in May next year. This would be a highly unusual move, possibly creating a shadow chairman that would damage the credibility of the world's major central bank.

Meanwhile, Jerome Powell defended that the bank is well-positioned to react to inflationary pressures likely to emerge from Trump's tariffs and declined to signal an imminent interest rate cut amid accusations from Republican senators of political partisanship.

The US president's criticism of Powell has raised speculation that it will reduce the Fed's credibility and trigger a sell-off in the US dollar that has eroded the US dollar's status as the world's reserve currency.

On the other hand, the threat of tariffs still looms with a June 9 deadline, without progress in a trade deal, causing investor concerns about the negative impact of tariffs and an already weak US economy, adding pressure on the US dollar.

Today, investors will shift their focus to Personal Consumption Expenditure/PCE data, an important indicator that provides clues about the Fed's future rate cut path, which could affect currency values.

 

[Zerologic]

USD/CNH steady in the range of 7.1678 amid Yuan campaign

On Friday, the offshore Yuan pair USDCNH drew a bullish candle with a slight shadow on the top candle. The price formed a high of 7.1748, a low of 7.1598, and a close of 7.1707. It is steady between the middle and lower bands of the contracting Bollinger bands.

Amid the USD challenges, China is trying to seize the moment to globalize the Yuan as doubts grow about the USD. According to Bloomberg, Chinese policymakers see erratic US decision-making and geopolitical tensions as the most favorable backdrop in recent years to promote the yuan. The move is aimed at facilitating trade and opening up China's financial markets and embedding the yuan deeper in investment flows.

China's central bank governor Pan Gongsheng envisioned a new global currency order in which the US dollar plays a smaller role and the Yuan plays a major role in global capital flows. He plans to set up an international operations center for the digital yuan in Shanghai.

In 2025, the Chinese government is targeting 5% growth, and in the first quarter recorded a 5.4% year-on-year expansion, higher than the 5.1% expectation. However, official annual growth is estimated at 4.5% to 5% by institutions such as the OECD (4.7%), Goldman (4.0%), and Moody's (3.8%), which projected a slightly lower figure.

In the economic sector, industrial and export performance declined in May due to weak demand and tariff pressures. The property sector is also still weak; the Evergrande & Country Garden crisis was exacerbated by liquidation to large-scale restructuring, and this sector is a major drag on growth. Household consumption is -39% of GDP, but stimulus and trade-in have boosted consumer spending. PPI is negative, and consumer inflation remains low; there is a risk of deflation due to weak domestic demand.

Trade tensions with the US continue to be an external and geopolitical challenge. However, on the other hand, energy diversification has helped reduce vulnerability to global supply disruptions.

China's long-term challenges include an aging population, a drastically declining ratio of workers to retirees, and hampered productivity. Suboptimal services in the transformation of the economy from industrial exports to consumption and dependence on foreign technology, especially semiconductors, continue even though the Made in China 2025 program has shown success in high technology such as EV, AI, solar, etc.

Today, CFLP (China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing) will release Manufacturing PMI data with expectations of 49.6 from the previous revision of 49.5.

 

[Zerologic]

EUR/USD is moving in an upward channel along the upper band line

Yesterday, the EURUSD pair drew a bullish medium-bodied candle extending the previous increase. The price formed a high of 1.17880 low of 1.17078 close of 1.17867 on FXOpen's platform. The euro is likely to remain in an upward channel throughout 2025, as of the time of writing.

The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar was triggered by several factors, including the weakening of the US dollar, which fell by around 10% in the first half of 2025, which was the largest decline since the 1970s. This was triggered by investors losing confidence in US economic policy, including uncertainty regarding tariffs and political pressure on the independence of the Fed.

The second factor is the expectation that the Fed is more dovish than the more hawkish ECB. The Fed is likely to stop raising interest rates and even lower them this year, while the ECB is holding off on cutting. This divergence could cause capital flows to Europe and strengthen the euro.

Capital flows and investments in European assets are also increasing. Global investors have begun to invest in European stock markets with equity inflows of around US$100 billion exceeding outflows from the US throughout 2025. Fiscal stimulus from Germany of around Euro500 billion has also boosted the Euro.

Geopolitical risk is also another reason for the strengthening of the Euro against the US dollar. US intervention in the Middle East has reduced demand for USD so that investors generally seek a transition in the European region at a time of global uncertainty.

Eurozone economic data is also relatively strong, business activity and manufacturing indicators in Germany and the Euro area were positive in June. Inflation is also stable, giving the ECB room to maintain policy, while the strengthening of the Euro is still tolerated.

Today, several high-impact news are the focus of traders. ECB President Lagarde and Fed Chair Powell speak in a panel discussion entitled "Policy Panel" at the ECB Forum in Sintra, where there are expected questions from the audience. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI will also be released, expected to increase slightly to 48.8 from the previous revision of 48.5. Meanwhile, JOLTS Job Openings are expected to fall to 7.32M from the previous 7.38M.

 

[Zerologic]

USD/CHF decline eases ahead of Swiss CPI

The USDCHF pair on Wednesday's market session formed a bullish small-bodied candle, easing the decline of the previous days. The price formed a high of 0.79411 low of 0.79031, and closed at 0.79154. The price has entered the oversold zone according to the RSI indicator, which points to level 27.

US data released on Wednesday, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, with negative nuances much lower than expected, is technically less supportive of the US dollar. However, DXY recovered slightly after dropping to a low of 96.377, rising to a high of 97.152, and closing at 96.810. The ADP National Employment Report showed that private employers lost 33,000 jobs in June. Job losses in the professional and business services sector, as well as education and health services, were the main causes of the decline. The leisure and hospitality sector, as well as manufacturing, showed an increase.

In addition, concerns about the health of the US fiscal and uncertainty about tariffs remain a significant burden on the recovery of the USD. The US dollar is still facing market concerns about the impact of Trump's tax law on US government debt and the lack of progress on trade deals. Powell's cautious stance on interest rate cuts due to the possibility of increased inflation stemming from Trump's tariffs.

The SNB currently maintains low interest rates, but further appreciation of the CHF could slow the economy. SNB board member Attilio Zanetti suggested that negative interest rates remain an option if needed to maintain price stability, adding that the central bank still has “ample instruments” even though the policy rate is near zero. While such steps are not imminent, the statement emphasized the SNB’s flexible stance and its openness to act if economic conditions worsen.

The IMF cut Switzerland’s 2025 GDP projection to 1.3% from 1.7% previously due to risks from geopolitical tensions, energy market volatility, and the Swiss franc remaining strong. Growth is expected to slow further to 1.2% in 2026.

Today, investors will focus on Swiss CPI due out by the Federal Statistical Office, which is expected to be steady at 0.1%, unchanged from the previous revision. The US will also release some economic data today. Average Hourly Earnings m/m are forecast to fall to 0.3% from 0.4%. Non-Farm Employment Change is forecast to fall 111k from a previously revised 139k. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%. Unemployment Claims are forecast to rise 240k from 236k.

The Swiss Franc is strengthening its position as a safe-haven currency due to the stable Swiss economy, growing +0.7% in the first quarter. The strengthening of the Swiss Franc amidst declining investor confidence in the USD as a safe-haven amid President Trump's tariff policies, which are expected to increase inflation.

 

[Zerologic]

Silver price rises reflecting increasing demand

The price of the XAGUSD pair representing Silver drew a bullish candle near the upper band line with a small body. The price formed a high of 37,215, a low of 36,913, a close of 37,148. The price movement above the MA 50 and MA 200 reflects bullish sentiment.

Referring to the fundamental analysis of Silver, the price increase was triggered by increasing demand and a supply deficit where global demand exceeded supply for the fifth consecutive year. Demand comes from industrial sectors such as EV, AI, electronics, and solar power.

On the other hand, geopolitical risk is the reason investors are looking for safe-haven assets, including Silver. Geopolitical tensions have driven large fund flows into Silver ETFs, reaching an inflow of US $ 1.6 billion in June.

Raising Silver prices are also driven by a weakening USD and dovish Fed expectations. Weak US employment data in June increased the chances of a US interest rate cut which could lower yields and support precious metals such as gold and silver which do not provide yields.

Some analysts are targeting medium to long-term bulls anticipating silver prices to reach $38-$40 by the end of 2025 and even up to $50 in 2026-2027, depending on the supply deficit trend.

From the fundamental summary, silver prices are expected to remain in an upward trend. However, the current Silver price is at the historical resistance level of the previous price in mid-June. If gold manages to break out, it is expected to rise higher.

Today in the economic calendar, there are no high-impact news releases. Some news of concern is the BRICS Summit involving BRICS members such as Brazil, Russia, India, and China, and other members.

 

[Zerologic]

NZD/USD moves flat near 50 MA ahead of interest rates

The New Zealand Dollar yesterday formed a doji candle with a long wick on the top of the candle with the opening and closing prices close together. The price formed a high of 0.60343 low of 0.59791 closing of 0.59956.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) halted its advance against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, as the Greenback strengthened after renewed tariff threats and an extension of the deadline for reciprocal tariffs. US President Donald Trump extended the deadline for reciprocal tariffs to August 1 from July 9, providing room for further negotiations but keeping market sentiment cautious.

Donald Trump's uncertain stance has contributed to global uncertainty, although the US Dollar Index's performance rose to a high of 97.838 yesterday but closed lower at 97.518 below the EMA 20 line. The USD's performance is still under pressure as seen from the EMA 20 indicator which draws a descending channel above the current value. Uncertainty in trade relations with several countries has resulted in weaker USD performance due to declining investor confidence.

Bearish pressure on the USD gives room for the New Zealand dollar to strengthen, although there is still a cautious sentiment towards global trade risks.

Today the New Zealand central bank (RBNZ) will announce interest rates. The market anticipates that the RBNZ will hold interest rates at 3.25% after a major cut of 225 bps since last August. From other fundamentals, New Zealand's first-quarter growth reached +0.8% and inflation was stable in the target range of 2.5%, which shows that the NZD is still supported by a relatively neutral or dovish monetary stance.

However, the NZD is still sensitive to global risks, including US tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. As a commodity currency, the NZD tends to strengthen when global sentiment is positive and moves to risk-on assets, conversely weakening when a fight for safety occurs.

In the short term, the risk conditions and DXY movements are the main catalysts if the USD continues to weaken, it is expected that NZDUSD can reach 0.605-0.608, conversely if negative sentiment appears NZD may fall to 0.595 - 0.600.

 

[Zerologic]

Bitcoin price attempts to break the $110,000 price level

BTCUSD on Wednesday drew a long-bodied bullish candle with a shadow at the top of the candle. The price formed a high of $111,956, a low of $108,336, and a close of $110,716 on FXOpen's platform. Wednesday's rise continued Tuesday's small gain. The impact of this rise is that the Bollinger bands widened slightly, reflecting higher volatility.

There are several points in Bitcoin analysis today that investors are focusing on. The first concerns institutional adoption and regulation. Large fund flows into spot ETFs are projected to reach US$49 billion by July 2025. The Trump administration established a strategic Bitcoin Reserve fund in March 2025, adding formal recognition to Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Large corporations like MicroStrategy reported unrealized gains of US$14 billion from holdings of approximately 597,000 BTC, demonstrating long-term confidence.

Other fundamental factors include on-chain metrics and supply. The drop in liquidity, with over 14.7 million BTC remaining unmoved for over 155 days, created a supply squeeze. Trading activity remained stable, with average daily volume reaching US$5.9 billion year-over-year, but weakened slightly in July. Medium-term holders of three- to ten-year positions realized billions of dollars in profits, a sign of distribution and confidence.

Macro and geopolitical factors, including increasing stablecoin legislation and crypto regulation in the US, are encouraging legal clarity and long-term adoption. The easing of geopolitical risks from the Israel-Iran war has provided positive momentum for crypto market sentiment. The Fed is stabilizing; if interest rates are lowered, this could strengthen riskier assets like Bitcoin.

Despite strong flows, exchange trading activity has weakened somewhat, and low volume could trigger a correction if there is no new buying momentum. Regulatory risks also remain, although the majority of positive signals suggest a sudden change is still possible. Bitcoin's inherent volatility remains high, and corrections are possible even during a long-term bullish trend.

Although Bitcoin's weekly gain remains low at 1.29%, the fear and greed index, which rose 2 points from 50 to 52, indicates new confidence has arisen, although it remains neutral.

 

[Zerologic]

Silver prices surged on Friday. Will they continue their upward trend?

The XAG/USD pair on Friday drew a bullish candle with a long body with almost no shadow, breaking the upper band line. The price formed a high of 38,529, a low of 36,906, and a close of 38,382 on FXOpen's platform. The silver price surge was the highest since 2012. The surge in silver prices was likely driven by falling long-term Treasury yields, which led to an influx into precious metals, including silver, as a safe-haven asset. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East or global concerns could increase interest in safe-haven assets. Prospective silver demand for the electronics, solar panels, and automotive industries, along with news of Chinese stimulus, could fuel global demand.

Silver prices have been in a strong uptrend throughout 2025, rising by around 26.8%. Breaking through this psychological level could encourage speculative momentum and a surge in long prices, which could stimulate silver prices. The market may have expected the Fed to delay interest rate tapering or signal a looser policy, with expectations of lower interest rates weakening the US dollar and supporting industrial metals. There is no direct supply data today, but strong reports from the industrial sectors in Germany and China are putting pressure on silver prices.

Concerns about rising US tariffs could disrupt global trade, potentially driving safe-haven flows. However, if trade negotiations progress well, investors may avoid riskier assets.

What's worth noting in today's silver trading is that the price has risen significantly, potentially leading to profit-taking, which could lead to a retracement. The US Dollar Index rose to 97.964 on Friday from a low of 97.555, triggered by the dovish FOMC minutes and a successful US bond auction on Wednesday.

The US dollar is expected to strengthen today, driven by a rebound in Treasury yields, which could pressure the price of precious metals like silver. US economic data releases, such as CPI, PPI, employment data, or Fed minutes, are expected. Updates on geopolitical tensions, movements in 2-10-year US Treasury yields, and solar panel sales data from China and India could provide subtle clues about silver demand.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold prices slipped ahead of US inflation data

Gold prices declined on Monday, drawing a bearish candle with a small shadow at the top. Gold prices formed a high of 3374, a low of 3341, and a close of 3342. Gold prices had risen three consecutive days the previous week as demand for safe-haven assets increased.

Gold prices continued to fluctuate amid trade war tensions involving US partners. US President Donald Trump's warning of potential 30% tariffs on imports from the EU and Mexico increased global market volatility, potentially boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold. This sentiment allowed investors to turn to the precious metal, as gold was perceived as attractive amid uncertainty. However, Trump's latest statement indicating openness to trade talks with Europe weighed on gold prices, sending them down to a low of 3341.

Geopolitical risks were also a concern, with Trump saying he would send more weapons to Ukraine and threatening "100% tariffs" on Russia unless they agreed to a 50-day ceasefire, as reported by Bloomberg.

Today, Tuesday, investors will be awaiting US inflation data, which is believed to influence the direction of the Fed's policy and interest rates. According to Forexfactory, US core CPI is projected to rise 0.3% from 0.1% previously. Month-on-month CPI is also projected to rise 0.3% from 0.1% previously, and year-on-year CPI is projected to rise 2.6% from 2.4%. Besides US inflation data, another focus for traders will be the market's reaction to the tariff news.

Market expectations for a December interest rate cut of more than 50 basis points are also supporting stronger sentiment for gold, as lower interest rates make gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset with a lower opportunity cost.

Gold is also supported in the long term by central bank purchases, which continue to add to gold reserves, with 95% of them planning to add more this year. Bullish sentiment may remain relevant, especially if inflation data is mild and trade turmoil persists.

Although gold is expected to perform well in the long term, a correction is likely after its rapid rise. Citi estimates that gold could fall below $3,000 by the end of 2025 as US GDP improves and global risks ease. If inflation is strong and the Fed is hawkish, prices may fall closer to 3,300-3,345.

 

[Zerologic]

Awaiting Australian employment data, AUD/USD moves within a range

The AUD/USD pair drew a bullish candle yesterday with shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. This ended three consecutive bearish candles. The price formed a high of 0.6533, a low of 0.64952, and a close of 0.65253. The AUD/USD price movement is near the middle band line.

AUD/USD has shown recent weakness, trading near 0.6500 and down more than 1% this week. The US dollar strengthened despite lower-than-expected US Producer Price Index data. Today, AUD/USD traders will await Australian employment data, Employment Change, and Employment Rate, which are important catalysts.

The US dollar continued to strengthen despite weaker-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, as traders remained cautious amid persistent inflation concerns and the threat of escalating tariffs from the United States.

Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised traders by keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.85%. Six of its nine board members supported the decision, while the other three advocated for an immediate 25 basis point cut. This internal split, described by Governor Michele Bullock as "timing, not direction." Bullock has since signaled that if Q2 inflation comes close to forecasts, a rate cut will follow. The RBA is taking a data-dependent approach and wants to see more evidence of inflation returning to its 2-3% target before easing further.

Further attention will be on the RBA's August meeting, following the release of the June quarter CPI data and the latest employment and financial data. The implications of the RBA's decision to hold interest rates could provide some support for the AUD, but the market will be highly sensitive to the RBA's comments on the outlook for future monetary policy.

In the US, the Fed's latest Beige Book report showed that US economic activity increased slightly from late May to early July, albeit with high uncertainty. Non-auto consumer spending declined in most districts. The Fed funds rate is currently 4.33%, and the prime bank lending rate is around 7.50%. If US economic data continues to demonstrate resilience, this could support the Fed's stance on maintaining interest rates, supporting the USD. However, if more significant signs of weakness emerge, expectations of a rate cut could increase, weakening the USD.

Australia's annual inflation rate stabilized in the first quarter of 2025. Services inflation slowed but was offset by rising goods inflation, particularly electricity. Continuing inflation within the RBA's target could increase pressure to cut interest rates in the future, which is negative for the AUD.

US CPI inflation for July 2025 is estimated at 3.73% and core CPI at 3.04%. US PPI data was flat for June, while core PPI missed expectations, representing a downside surprise. Lower-than-expected US inflation data could ease pressure on the Fed to maintain high interest rates.

The US will release key economic data today: monthly core retail sales, which are expected to rise to 0.3% from a previously revised -0.3%. Unemployment claims are expected to rise to 233,000 from 227,000. Meanwhile, Australia's employment change is estimated at 21.0,000 from a previously revised -2.5,000, with the unemployment rate estimated at 4.1%, the same as the previous revision.

 

[Zerologic]

Bitcoin Price Around $118K Amid News of US Pro-Crypto Move

Bitcoin's price has been flat for three days, trading in the $117k-$118k range. Bitcoin's price began to rise on July 9th after successfully breaking the psychological level of $111k, pushing Bitcoin to a new all-time high of $123k

Bitcoin's rise may have been driven by various factors, including: the United States' pro-crypto stance with several laws such as the Genius Act, the Clarity Act, and the Anti-CBDD Act, which clarified the regulatory authority of stablecoins, the SEC vs. the CFTC, and the rejection of CBDCs. This wave of regulation has encouraged the adoption of ETFs, creating a legal climate that favors institutional investors.

Current market sentiment is tending toward Greed, with the Fear and Greed Index reaching 68, indicating high market optimism. Macro capital flows, including expectations of a Fed interest rate cut, are also a catalyst for riskier assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded billions of dollars in inflows between $3.4 and $4 billion in July. Products like the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust now manage around $80 billion, outpacing the growth of gold ETFs. Publicly traded companies like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet are also adding Bitcoin reserves as a strategic asset.

On-chain metrics and network security: The network hash rate is very high at around 891 EH/s, indicating post-halving confidence among miners. The distribution of long-term holders is increasing, with approximately 30% of coins remaining unchanged for less than five years, focused on high returns. Metrics like MVRV, SOPR, and MPI indicate a healthier, less speculative rally. Whale activity also attracted large movements totaling $8.3 billion, indicating strong conviction.

Quantum computing risks are still considered medium-term, and the community is developing quantum-resistant cryptographic solutions. There is potential for a short-term correction, with indicators like NVT suggesting overbought conditions at the peak of the cycle. However, expectations of lower macro interest rates and global uncertainty due to trade wars and tariffs are supporting Bitcoin.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold prices rose to their highest level since June 17th, hovering around $3,400.

Yesterday, gold prices surged, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with a small shadow at the bottom, extending the preceding candle. Gold prices rose for two consecutive days. Yesterday, the price formed a high of 3433, a low of 3383, and a close of 3431 on FXOpen's platform.

Gold's rise to its highest level since mid-June was supported by a weakening USD and falling US bond yields. The geopolitical situation and slight uncertainty regarding Trump's policy response to the Fed Chair also strengthened gold's appeal as a safe-haven for investors.

US government bond yields have fallen for the fifth consecutive session, weakening the USD, as reflected in the DXY value, which declined from a high of 98,950 to 97,305 and has moved below the 20-day moving average (EMA), reflecting bearish sentiment.

US government bond yields continued to fall as the 10-year Treasury note fell more than five basis points, and as a result, US real yields, calculated by subtracting inflation expectations from nominal interest rates, have also declined by four and a half basis points.

Falling US Treasury yields have reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Expectations are that the Fed will cut interest rates in September with a 59% probability. The ECB is expected to keep its interest rate unchanged at 2.0% on July 24, supporting the USD's short-term appeal.

Geopolitical risks and trade tensions, a more aggressive stance from the European Union, the potential for new US tariffs, and ambiguity in trade negotiations are increasing uncertainty. Conflicts in the Middle East are also driving capital flows into safe-haven assets like gold.

Global ETFs experienced significant inflows of approximately US$38 billion in the first half of 2025. Meanwhile, central banks from the G-20 and BRICS countries are continuously increasing their gold reserves as part of their de-dollarization strategies.

In the short term, gold is driven by fundamental factors such as a weak US dollar, low yields, and geopolitical tensions. Gold prices have the potential to rise above $3,400. However, if the pressure subsides and a rebound occurs, a short-term correction is expected to reach around $3,380-3,390.

Investors' next focus will be on the ECB decision on July 24th, and in the coming days, the release of US economic data and comments from the Fed could trigger volatility in XAUUSD.

 

[Zerologic]

EUR/USD rose slightly ahead of the ECB interest rate decision

Yesterday, the EURUSD pair drew a small-bodied bullish candle with a short shadow at the bottom. The price formed a high of 1.17753, a low of 1.17111, and a close of 1.17669. The EURUSD price movement is now above the middle band, with resistance at 1.18400 according to the upper band.

Today's EURUSD volatility forecast will be heavily influenced by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (FED), as well as important economic data from the Eurozone and the United States.

The market widely anticipates the ECB will maintain its interest rate at 2.15% at today's ECB interest rate decision. This follows the June rate cut. The ECB will likely adopt a wait-and-see approach, awaiting more significant data before making further adjustments.

ECB President Christine Lagarde will likely adopt a cautious or dovish narrative, emphasizing the need to reassess downside risks to the economy without appearing reactive. Although inflation is projected to fall to 1.4% in early 2026, below the 2% target, and the euro has strengthened significantly, the threat of higher US tariffs could pose a downside risk to eurozone growth.

Regarding the European outlook, markets are divided over the possibility of a rate cut in September or December 2025. If US tariffs are tightened, two cuts could be justified. If the ECB maintains a cautious stance but signals further rate cuts, this could put pressure on the EUR. However, if there are indications the ECB will not cut rates anytime soon, the EUR could strengthen.

Regarding the US monetary policy outlook, the federal funds futures market projects that monetary policy easing will begin later this year. The FOMC media projections for June 2025 indicated two 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of 2025, although there are differences of opinion among FOMC members.

US inflation remains slightly above the 2% target, reaching 2.3% in May 2025 and is expected to rise slightly later in the year due to trade tariffs. The US labor market is expected to remain solid, despite slowing economic growth.

If the Fed maintains its stance that it is ready to cut rates, this will put pressure on the USD. Conversely, if data shows more persistent inflation or a stronger-than-expected labor market, the Fed may delay a rate cut, which would support a stronger USD.

Investors' focus today is on economic data in the Eurozone and the US. This includes the ECB's interest rate decision, inflation estimates, and European PMIs. In the US, new home sales, unemployment claims, and PMIs can provide insights into the US economy.

Trade tensions stemming from Trump's tariffs remain a major focus for traders. The threat of US tariffs potentially reaching 30% is the biggest concern for the Eurozone, which could significantly impact GDP by up to 0.5% through 2026, especially for export-oriented economies like Germany. While global geopolitical impacts, such as tensions in the Middle East, are easing, any escalation could increase demand for safe-haven assets like the USD.