News Announcement & Chart Analysis

Attila Farkas · Sep 12, 2025

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 15, 2025

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CNY, USD

02:00 GMT
China – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 5.2% | Previous: 5.2%
Currency: CNY
Market insight:
The surveyed urban unemployment rate is steady, suggesting labor market resilience. Any surprise uptick would raise growth concerns, while stability offers reassurance for the yuan.

02:00 GMT
China – Industrial Production Year-on-Year
Forecast: 5.1% | Previous: 5.7%
Currency: CNY
⚡ Why it matters:
Industrial output across manufacturing, mining, and utilities slowed from July. Softer growth underscores pressure from weak global demand and could weigh on risk sentiment.

02:00 GMT
China – Retail Sales Year-on-Year
Forecast: 5.0% | Previous: 3.7%
Currency: CNY
Market insight:
Retail spending compares to the same month last year. A rebound from July’s weak pace points to stronger consumer demand, a supportive sign for domestic recovery and the yuan.

12:30 GMT
United States – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
Forecast: 10.0 | Previous: 11.9
Currency: USD
Quick take:
This survey of New York manufacturers tracks changes in orders, shipments, and hiring. A lower reading signals easing momentum, though staying above 0 still reflects expansion.

✅ Monday begins with a China data trio—unemployment, industrial production, and retail sales—setting the tone for Asia’s session. Later, the Empire State survey offers the first glimpse into U.S. factory activity for September.

A Trader's Guide to High-Impact News Volatility

China's Economic Pulse: Output, Retail, and Employment - 15 August, 2025

China’s economy maintained steady growth momentum in July 2025, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Industrial output rose 5.7% year-on-year, led by equipment manufacturing (+8.4%) and high-tech production (+9.3%), while services grew 5.8%, with strong gains in IT and finance. Retail sales climbed 3.7% year-on-year, supported by robust demand for appliances, furniture, and recreational goods, though monthly growth dipped slightly. Fixed asset investment increased 1.6% in the first seven months, with manufacturing and infrastructure strengthening, even as real estate investment fell 12%. Exports surged 8.0% and imports rose 4.8%, driving a 6.7% trade growth overall. Employment stayed broadly stable at 5.2% unemployment, while inflation was flat year-on-year and core CPI rose 0.8%, reflecting subdued consumer prices. Overall, officials highlighted resilience despite global headwinds and domestic challenges.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk

Geopolitical tensions continue to drive volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equities. Weekend developments add further uncertainty, often leading to sharp gaps when markets reopen. In the Middle East, Israel’s strike in Doha triggered a regional backlash ahead of Qatar’s extraordinary Arab–Islamic summit on September 14–15, 2025, with a foreign ministers’ preparatory meeting on Sunday. In Europe, Russia–Poland drone incidents, Belarus–Russia military drills near the Polish border, and the pause in Ukraine peace talks highlight growing instability. In Asia, China–Taiwan tensions remain elevated after Beijing’s Fujian carrier crossed the Taiwan Strait.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

Attila Farkas · Sep 15, 2025

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 16, 2025

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: GBP, EUR, USD, CAD, JPY

06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 4.7% | Previous: 4.7%
Currency: GBP
Market insight:
A steady unemployment rate indicates labor stability, but any surprise uptick could signal cracks in the job market and weigh on the pound.
06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Employment Change
Forecast: 150K | Previous: 238K
Currency: GBP
Quick take:
A slowdown in employment growth points to cooling demand in the labor market, easing wage pressures and influencing BoE rate expectations.

09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Industrial Production Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: -1.3%
Currency: EUR
⚡ Why it matters:
A rebound suggests resilience in Europe’s industrial sector after July’s contraction. Weakness, however, would deepen fears of sluggish eurozone growth.
09:00 GMT
Germany – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
Forecast: 22.0 | Previous: 34.7
Currency: EUR
Market insight:
Optimism among analysts is fading. A further decline could erode investor confidence and weigh on euro sentiment.

12:30 GMT
United States – Retail Sales Year-on-Year
Forecast: 3.2% | Previous: 3.9%
Currency: USD
Why traders care:
Retail sales are a key gauge of consumer-driven growth. A slowdown may flag weaker household demand, a negative for dollar sentiment.
12:30 GMT
United States – Retail Sales Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.5%
Currency: USD
Quick take:
Monthly changes offer the most immediate read on consumer momentum. Even small deviations from forecasts can trigger sharp USD moves.

12:30 GMT
Canada – Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 1.8% | Previous: 1.7%
Currency: CAD
⚠️ Why traders care:
Canada’s CPI basket is heavily weighted toward Shelter (30%) and Transportation (17%), followed by Food (16%) and Household Operations/Furnishings (15%). A stronger print would signal broad-based price pressures across housing, transport, and food, potentially pushing the BoC toward a more hawkish stance. Softer numbers would reinforce dovish expectations.
12:30 GMT
Canada – Core Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 2.6% | Previous: 2.6%
Currency: CAD
Why traders care:
Core CPI excludes volatile items like food, fuel, and indirect taxes. As the BoC’s preferred measure, it offers a cleaner signal of underlying inflation. A steady rate suggests inflationary pressures are contained, limiting scope for immediate policy tightening.
12:30 GMT
Canada – Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: CAD
Why traders care:
Monthly CPI captures the most immediate price shifts. A decline signals easing momentum in consumer prices, reinforcing dovish expectations and potentially weakening the Canadian dollar.
12:30 GMT
Canada – Core Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: 0.1%
Currency: CAD
⚡ Why traders care:
Core monthly inflation strips out volatility to track true price trends. A flat print underscores subdued pressures, reducing the likelihood of near-term BoC rate hikes.

13:15 GMT
United States – Industrial Production Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: -0.1%
Currency: USD
Quick take:
A return to growth would show renewed industrial momentum, a supportive signal for the dollar.

23:50 GMT
Japan – Exports Year-on-Year
Forecast: -1.9% | Previous: -2.6%
Currency: JPY
Why traders care:
A softer contraction in exports suggests improving trade performance, which could provide near-term support for the yen.
23:50 GMT
Japan – Imports Year-on-Year
Forecast: -4.2% | Previous: -7.4%
Currency: JPY
Why traders care:
A decline in imports reflects weaker domestic demand but also relieves pressure on the trade deficit, often positive for JPY stability.
23:50 GMT
Japan – Balance of Trade
Forecast: -¥450B | Previous: -¥118.4B
Currency: JPY
⚠️ Why traders care:
A wider deficit underscores the cost strain of imports over exports. Trade shocks here often spark sharp yen adjustments.

✅ Tuesday brings a packed schedule: UK jobs data at the open, Eurozone industrial activity and Germany’s ZEW sentiment mid-morning, followed by a heavy North American session with U.S. retail sales, Canadian inflation, and U.S. industrial output. The day closes with Japan’s trade report—likely to move JPY pairs in late trading.

From News to Price Action: A Guide to High-Impact Events

Canada's Inflation Release Data - 19 August, 2025

In July 2025, Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.7% year-over-year, easing from 1.9% in June, driven mainly by gasoline prices plunging 16.1% after the federal carbon levy removal. Excluding gasoline, inflation held steady at 2.5%, underscoring persistent pressures in other categories. Shelter costs accelerated 3.0% as rent climbed 5.1% and natural gas declines moderated, while grocery prices surged 3.4%, with coffee (+28.6%), cocoa (+11.8%), and fruit (+3.9%) seeing sharp gains from unfavorable global weather. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.3% (0.1% seasonally adjusted), reflecting mixed forces of cheaper energy but higher food and housing costs. Regionally, six provinces recorded slower inflation, while Newfoundland and Labrador saw faster price growth due to electricity costs (+13.9%).

Geopolitical Risks Update – Sept 15, 2025

Markets opened the week under renewed pressure from fresh geopolitical shocks. Romania became the second NATO member after Poland to report a Russian drone incursion, highlighting the risks along NATO’s eastern flank as Russia and Belarus conduct joint drills. The collapse of Ukraine peace talks added to the tension, while the Doha Arab–Islamic summit convened today in response to Israeli strikes kept Middle East risks in focus. At the same time, U.S.–Venezuela tensions escalated after Washington expanded naval and air operations in the Caribbean following a strike on a Venezuelan vessel, straining ties despite recent sanctions relief. In Asia, China’s Fujian carrier transit through the Taiwan Strait underscored rising friction. Together, these developments reinforced safe-haven demand and volatility across oil, gold, and equities.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

Attila Farkas · Sep 16, 2025

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 17, 2025

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: GBP, USD, CAD, NZD, JPY

06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Core Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
Currency: GBP
Market insight:
Core inflation strips out volatile components. A modest uptick would add pressure on the Bank of England to maintain tighter policy, keeping sterling supported.
06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 3.8% | Previous: 3.8%
Currency: GBP
⚡ Why it matters:
Annual inflation stability suggests price pressures are cooling. A surprise rebound would revive tightening bets; a dip supports easing.
06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.1%
Currency: GBP
Market lens:
A monthly acceleration highlights renewed price momentum, which could weigh on consumer sentiment but support GBP if persistent.
06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Core Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 3.7% | Previous: 3.8%
Currency: GBP
Quick take:
Core inflation softening reinforces the disinflation narrative, potentially reducing urgency for further BoE hikes.

12:30 GMT
United States – Housing Starts Month-on-Month
Forecast: -3.4% | Previous: 5.2%
Currency: USD
Trading angle:
A sharp pullback in new projects signals weakening construction demand, a potential drag on U.S. growth momentum.
12:30 GMT
United States – Building Permits Month-on-Month (Prel)
Forecast: 0.6% | Previous: -2.2%
Currency: USD
Market read:
Permits serve as a leading indicator of housing activity. A rebound would show builders expect demand to stabilize despite higher rates.

13:45 GMT
Canada – BoC Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.75%
Currency: CAD
Analyst view:
A cut would mark further policy easing to support growth. The loonie could weaken if forward guidance signals dovish intent.

18:00 GMT
United States – Fed Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 4.25% | Previous: 4.5%
Currency: USD
Market mover:
Markets expect another quarter-point cut. A surprise hold would strengthen USD sharply; a dovish tone supports risk assets.
18:30 GMT
United States – Fed Press Conference
Currency: USD
Snapshot:
Chair Powell’s guidance will shape expectations on the policy path. Hawkish remarks may cushion USD; dovish language could spur equities.

22:45 GMT
New Zealand – GDP Growth Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: -0.7%
Currency: NZD
Fast track:
Flat growth reflects ongoing external and domestic headwinds. Stability marks an improvement from contraction but signals fragile recovery.
22:45 GMT
New Zealand – GDP Growth Rate Quarter-on-Quarter
Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: 0.8%
Currency: NZD
Takeaway:
A quarterly slip shows renewed weakness in activity. Risk-sensitive NZD may face pressure if negative momentum persists.

23:50 GMT
Japan – Machinery Orders Year-on-Year
Forecast: 5.9% | Previous: 7.6%
Currency: JPY
Investor focus:
Still strong but slowing growth in capital spending reflects businesses’ caution amid global demand uncertainty.
23:50 GMT
Japan – Machinery Orders Month-on-Month
Forecast: -1.3% | Previous: 3.0%
Currency: JPY
⏩ Fast view:
A decline after strong July gains points to volatility in investment cycles. JPY impact depends on forward demand signals.

✅ Wednesday brings a heavy slate: UK inflation data first thing, then U.S. housing numbers, Canada’s BoC decision, and the pivotal Fed announcement with Powell’s press conference. The day wraps with New Zealand GDP and Japan machinery orders—making for a global volatility storm across majors.

From Announcement to Action: How Key News Moves the Markets

U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision - 30 July, 2025

On July 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50%, citing moderating growth in the first half of the year, a still-solid labor market, and inflation that remained somewhat above target. Chair Jerome Powell said policy was “modestly restrictive” and that the Fed would assess two additional rounds of jobs and inflation data before considering a move toward a more neutral stance. He noted GDP rose 1.2% in H1 2025 (with a volatile 3% Q2), wages cooled, services inflation eased, and tariffs were lifting some goods prices, nudging near-term inflation expectations while longer-term measures stayed anchored. The Fed reaffirmed balance-sheet runoff, flagged weak housing and slower consumer spending, and continued its five-year framework review. The decision passed with dissents from Michelle W. Bowman and Christopher J. Waller, who favored a 25 bp cut; Governor Adriana D. Kugler was absent.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk - September 15-16, 2025
Global tensions escalated across multiple regions. In the South China Sea, China’s Coast Guard fired water cannons at Philippine vessels near Scarborough Shoal, prompting sharp denials from Manila and renewed disputes over sovereignty. In the Caribbean, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed a second strike on a Venezuelan vessel accused of drug trafficking, killing three and drawing condemnation from Nicolás Maduro alongside legal questions in Washington. In Europe, NATO forces scrambled as Russian drones breached Polish and Romanian airspace, while the UK deployed Typhoon jets to Poland under the new “Eastern Sentry” mission, reinforcing the alliance’s eastern flank. In the Middle East, Israel launched a ground offensive into Gaza City, marking the main phase of its campaign against Hamas, even as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned to court in Tel Aviv to face corruption charges — becoming the first sitting Israeli leader to stand trial and adding further political strain to a region already on edge.

Market Impact: Oil prices edged higher as traders assessed risks to global supply, while gold climbed to new highs on safe-haven demand and expectations of U.S. rate cuts.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

Attila Farkas · Sep 17, 2025

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 18, 2025

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, GBP, USD, JPY

01:30 GMT
Australia – Employment Change
Forecast: 15K | Previous: 24.5K
Currency: AUD
Market insight:
Job growth slowdown could temper optimism around Australia’s labor market strength, weighing slightly on the Aussie if confirmed.
01:30 GMT
Australia – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 4.3% | Previous: 4.2%
Currency: AUD
⚡ Why it matters:
A rise in unemployment signals cooling labor conditions. Even a minor uptick could pressure AUD as traders reassess growth resilience.
01:30 GMT
Australia – Full-Time Employment Change
Forecast: -10K | Previous: 60.5K
Currency: AUD
Market lens:
A swing into contraction for full-time positions suggests softer demand for stable jobs, highlighting fragility beneath headline employment numbers.

11:00 GMT
United Kingdom – BoE Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 4.0% | Previous: 4.0%
Currency: GBP
Trading angle:
Markets expect a hold. Any shift in tone from policymakers on inflation risks could sway GBP sharply.

12:30 GMT
United States – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Forecast: 8 | Previous: -0.3
Currency: USD
Market read:
A return to positive territory signals manufacturing recovery momentum. Sustained strength would support USD and risk sentiment.
12:30 GMT
United States – Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 250K | Previous: 263K
Currency: USD
Analyst view:
Fewer claims suggest labor demand remains steady. Persistent declines reinforce confidence in U.S. economic resilience.

14:00 GMT
United States – CB Leading Index Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: -0.1%
Currency: USD
Market mover:
Another decline underscores slowing forward-looking indicators. Sustained weakness may feed recession concerns and weigh on USD.

23:30 GMT
Japan – Core Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 3.1%
Currency: JPY
Snapshot:
Core inflation cooling highlights progress in moderating price pressures, though still above the BoJ’s target.
23:30 GMT
Japan – Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.1%
Currency: JPY
Fast track:
A mild monthly gain shows inflation momentum persisting, keeping policy watchers attentive.
23:30 GMT
Japan – Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 3.1%
Currency: JPY
Takeaway:
Annual inflation easing reflects progress toward stability, but a sustained downtrend would affect BoJ’s cautious stance.

✅ Thursday kicks off with Australia’s labor market figures, a key driver for AUD. The spotlight then shifts to the Bank of England decision, followed by a heavy U.S. data slate — Philly Fed, jobless claims, and the leading index. Japan closes the session with inflation data, shaping JPY sentiment into Friday’s trade.

Beyond the Headline: How Markets Digest and React to Data

BoE Interest Rate Decision and Governor Bailey’s Remarks – August 7, 2025

The Bank of England cut interest rates from 4.25% to 4% after a narrow 5–4 vote by its Monetary Policy Committee, marking its fifth reduction since the 2024 general election. Policymakers weighed stubborn inflation, which rose to 3.6% in June, against weakening growth and a cooling labor market, ultimately opting for a cautious 25-basis-point cut. Governor Andrew Bailey described the decision as a “finely balanced” one, stressing the need for a gradual approach, while economists remained divided on whether rates would fall further this year. The pound rose 0.5% against the dollar following the announcement. At his press conference, Bailey emphasized that policy was still restrictive and on a downward path, but cautioned against cutting rates too quickly, warning that second-round effects from higher food and energy prices could delay a return to target inflation.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk – September 16–17, 2025

Global tensions persisted across multiple regions. In the Arctic, NATO allies joined Denmark’s Arctic Light 2025 exercises in Greenland, signaling pushback against Russia’s military buildup and growing U.S. interest in Arctic security. In the South China Sea, the Philippines and the UK opened talks on a Visiting Forces Agreement, highlighting Manila’s push for stronger alliances as maritime disputes with Beijing intensify. In Asia-Pacific, China unveiled its new “Guam Killer” missile in a military parade, heightening U.S. concerns about the island’s role in a Taiwan conflict.

Market Impact: Oil prices stayed firm on fears of Russian supply disruptions and Middle East instability, while gold extended gains above $3,700/oz as investors sought safe havens. The U.S. dollar weakened as traders positioned for further Fed Funds Rate cuts, with geopolitical risks reinforcing expectations that the Fed may lean dovish despite lingering inflation pressures.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

Attila Farkas · Sep 18, 2025

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 15, 2025

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: JPY, GBP, EUR, CAD

03:00 GMT
Japan – BoJ Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 0.5%
Currency: JPY
Market insight:
A hold is widely expected. Any subtle change in tone from policymakers could ripple across JPY pairs given sensitivity to policy divergence.

06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Retail Sales Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 0.6%
Currency: GBP
⚡ Why it matters:
Retail sales are a key driver of consumer demand. A steady pace reinforces resilience, but a miss would renew growth concerns.

06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Retail Sales Year-on-Year
Forecast: 0.7% | Previous: 1.1%
Currency: GBP
Market lens:
Slowing annual growth suggests spending momentum is cooling, challenging the UK’s recovery narrative.

06:00 GMT
Germany – Producer Price Index Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -0.1%
Currency: EUR
Trading angle:
A return to positive territory highlights stabilizing input costs. Persistent gains could re-ignite inflation concerns in Europe.

06:00 GMT
Germany – Producer Price Index Year-on-Year
Forecast: -1.6% | Previous: -1.5%
Currency: EUR
Market read:
Producer prices remain in deflation, underscoring soft demand. A deeper decline would weigh on the euro’s outlook.

12:30 GMT
Canada – Retail Sales Month-on-Month (Prel)
Forecast: -0.6% | Previous: 1.5%
Currency: CAD
Analyst view:
A negative turn after a strong July highlights consumer caution. CAD could weaken if momentum slips further.

12:30 GMT
Canada – Retail Sales Year-on-Year
Forecast: 3.5% | Previous: 6.6%
Currency: CAD
Market mover:
The sharp slowdown in annual retail growth signals fading household demand, raising questions about Canada’s growth outlook.

✅ Friday begins with the BoJ decision in Asia, setting the tone for JPY. UK retail sales and German PPI follow, offering key inflation and demand signals for Europe. The spotlight then shifts to Canada’s retail sales, testing CAD resilience into the weekend.

⚡Anticipating the Move: Preparing for High-Impact News Volatility

BoJ Interest Rate Decision - 31 July, 2025

The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady at 0.5% in a unanimous decision, offering a cautiously optimistic view as its trade deal with the U.S. eased tariff-related risks. The central bank raised its core inflation forecast for the current fiscal year to 2.7% from 2.2%, while projecting 1.8% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, signaling greater confidence in achieving its price stability goal. June factory output rose 1.7%, highlighting resilience despite earlier tariff pressures. Governor Kazuo Ueda said rate hikes would continue if economic and price trends align with forecasts, stressing decisions would depend on the likelihood of underlying inflation reaching 2% rather than waiting for it to be firmly realized. He noted the U.S. trade deal reduced uncertainty, but warned that tightening policy to counter supply-driven price pressures such as high food costs could weigh on growth and household spending. Ueda also said prolonged headline inflation could influence expectations, while the ongoing wage-price cycle remained intact but not excessive, and recent currency moves posed little risk to forecasts. Markets turned their focus to his comments that the timing of the next rate hike would depend on whether wage and inflation momentum continued without disruption.

Regional Flashpoints Roundup – September 17–18, 2025

Between September 17–18, 2025, geopolitical tensions rose across several regions. In the Aegean, Greece staged a snap military drill with naval forces and 60 warplanes, which some media linked to Turkiye’s Piri Reis research vessel, though Athens denied this; Turkiye countered with a Navtex citing treaty limits on island militarization. In the Middle East, Israel pressed ahead with its Gaza City ground offensive while Prime Minister Netanyahu faced ongoing court proceedings. In Europe, NATO maintained elevated air defenses following recent Russian drone incursions into Poland and Romania. In South America, U.S. forces struck a Venezuelan vessel accused of drug trafficking, prompting condemnation from President Maduro. Meanwhile, in the South China Sea, China’s Coast Guard clashed with Philippine vessels at Scarborough Shoal using water cannons, sparking diplomatic protests.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

Attila Farkas · Sep 19, 2025

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 22, 2025

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CAD, AUD

12:30 GMT
Canada – Producer Price Index Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.7%
Currency: CAD
Market insight:
A shift back into contraction suggests producer costs are easing, potentially relieving inflationary pressures downstream.
12:30 GMT
Canada – Producer Price Index Year-on-Year
Forecast: 3.4% | Previous: 2.6%
Currency: CAD
⚡ Why it matters:
Rising annual producer prices indicate inflationary momentum may be returning. Sustained pressure here could complicate BoC’s policy stance.

23:00 GMT
Australia – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 50.4 | Previous: 55.5
Currency: AUD
Market lens:
A sharp slowdown toward the 50 threshold signals weaker overall activity, raising concerns about momentum in both manufacturing and services.
23:00 GMT
Australia – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 51.0 | Previous: 55.8
Currency: AUD
Trading angle:
The services sector cooling sharply reflects fading demand. A reading near 50 would pressure AUD as growth risks rise.
23:00 GMT
Australia – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 52.7 | Previous: 53.0
Currency: AUD
Market read:
Manufacturing resilience stands out, though still weaker than earlier months. A stable result cushions downside risks for AUD.

✅ Monday features Canada’s producer price data to gauge inflation momentum, followed by a trio of Australian PMI releases. With services and composite indices sliding, investors will watch whether manufacturing strength is enough to offset broader weakness.

Geopolitical Watch: Conflicts, Protests, and Sanctions Shaping Market Sentiment

In the Americas, Venezuela launched large-scale military drills with Russian jets and naval forces in defiance of U.S. warships in the Caribbean. Moving east, Europe saw France rocked by mass anti-austerity strikes while the EU pushed a 19th sanctions package on Russia, potentially targeting LNG. In the Middle East, Israel struck Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon, testing the fragile ceasefire. Across the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey warned Cyprus over new Israeli-made air-defense systems as it prepared for a Sept. 23 UNGA meeting with Greece on Aegean disputes. In the Pacific, Australia and Papua New Guinea signed a defence communique after a treaty stalled, with Canberra calling it its first new alliance in 70 years as Beijing closely monitors developments.

✅ Collectively, these flashpoints added to global uncertainty, pressuring energy markets, risk sentiment, and safe-haven flows.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

Attila Farkas · Sep 22, 2025

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 23, 2025

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: EUR, GBP, USD

07:30 GMT
Germany – HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 50.0 | Previous: 49.8
Currency: EUR
Market insight:
A move above 50 would mark the first expansion in months. Even a marginal gain boosts sentiment for Europe’s largest economy.

08:30 GMT
United Kingdom – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 53.8 | Previous: 54.2
Currency: GBP
⚡ Why it matters:
Services dominate the UK economy. Holding above 50 reflects resilience, but continued slippage could dampen sterling.
08:30 GMT
United Kingdom – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 47.5 | Previous: 47.0
Currency: GBP
Market lens:
The sector remains in contraction, but a smaller decline suggests the bottoming process may be underway.
08:30 GMT
United Kingdom – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 52.9 | Previous: 53.5
Currency: GBP
Trading angle:
A slight dip in the combined index reflects softer services offsetting weak manufacturing. Markets look for confirmation of broader stability.

13:45 GMT
United States – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 54.1 | Previous: 55.1
Currency: USD
Market read:
Momentum eases but remains firmly expansionary. Investors gauge whether demand is moderating after a hot summer.
13:45 GMT
United States – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 53.0 | Previous: 54.5
Currency: USD
Analyst view:
A second straight decline suggests demand is cooling. Markets will watch if this signals a turning point for U.S. growth.
13:45 GMT
United States – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 52.0 | Previous: 53.0
Currency: USD
Market mover:
Manufacturing loses steam but remains above 50, signaling expansion. Sustained moderation could cap USD gains.

14:00 GMT
United States – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
Forecast: -10 | Previous: -7
Currency: USD
Snapshot:
Another negative reading reflects contraction in the regional sector. Traders look for alignment with national PMI trends.

16:35 GMT
United States – Fed Chair Powell Speech
Currency: USD
Fast track:
Powell’s remarks may clarify the Fed’s rate path. Any hawkish tilt could strengthen USD; dovish cues may spur risk assets.

✅ Tuesday is PMI day across Europe, the UK, and the U.S., giving a broad read on global growth momentum. Germany’s manufacturing gauge could signal recovery, while UK and U.S. services highlight whether demand is softening. Powell’s speech later anchors the session, setting the tone for Fed policy expectations.

Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events

U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash - 21 August, 2025

The S&P Global US Composite PMI was revised down to 54.6 in August 2025 from a flash estimate of 55.4, slipping from July’s seven-month high of 55.1 as services activity slowed even while manufacturing growth accelerated. The Services PMI dropped to 54.5 from 55.7, with consumer-focused firms weighed by tariffs, though financial services demand remained resilient, driving new business and employment growth. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.0 from 49.8, marking the strongest improvement since May 2022, as production and new orders surged, inventories expanded, and firms added staff to ease capacity constraints. Despite solid growth, price pressures persisted: payroll expenses and tariffs lifted input costs, and firms passed them on to clients, keeping output charge inflation near multi-year highs. Business confidence strengthened in manufacturing but was tempered in services by concerns over inflation and uncertain federal policies.

UN General Assembly Opens Amid Escalating Global Tensions and Market Risks

Global tensions escalated this week ahead of the 80th United Nations General Assembly in New York, where leaders will convene amid multiple crises. The wars in Gaza and Ukraine are set to dominate discussions, as the UK, Canada, Australia and others formally recognized Palestine, straining ties with Israel, while Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy seeks stronger backing against Russia. Estonia accused Moscow of repeated airspace violations, prompting NATO attention, even as Russia and Belarus carried out joint drills. In the Pacific, China warned Papua New Guinea against an exclusive defence pact with Australia, while in Europe, France grappled with mass anti-austerity protests. Oil prices edged higher on fears of supply disruptions, underscoring the market risks tied to political instability. With President Trump outlining Washington’s stance, Abbas addressing by video after being denied a U.S. visa, and Syria’s president attending for the first time since 1967, the UNGA opens against an unusually volatile geopolitical backdrop with broad implications for diplomacy, energy, and markets.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

Attila Farkas · Sep 23, 2025

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 24, 2025

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: JPY, AUD, EUR, USD

00:30 GMT
Japan – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 52.2 | Previous: 52.0
Currency: JPY
Market insight:
A modest uptick signals steady expansion across services and manufacturing, giving the yen some stability against peers.
00:30 GMT
Japan – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 53.4 | Previous: 53.1
Currency: JPY
⚡ Why it matters:
Services remain the engine of Japan’s growth. Continued expansion supports the recovery narrative, easing pressure on the BoJ.
00:30 GMT
Japan – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 50.3 | Previous: 49.7
Currency: JPY
Market lens:
Climbing back above 50 would mark renewed growth momentum in the factory sector, an encouraging sign after contraction.

01:30 GMT
Australia – Monthly CPI Indicator
Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: 2.8%
Currency: AUD
Trading angle:
An uptick in monthly inflation strengthens the case for tighter RBA policy. AUD could gain if prices accelerate further.

08:00 GMT
Germany – Ifo Business Climate
Forecast: 89.2 | Previous: 89.0
Currency: EUR
Market read:
Business sentiment remains subdued but stable. A surprise rise would lift euro confidence, while weakness keeps growth concerns alive.

14:00 GMT
United States – New Home Sales
Forecast: 640K | Previous: 652K
Currency: USD
Analyst view:
A slight slowdown reflects affordability pressures in housing. Markets watch for consistency with other property indicators.
14:00 GMT
United States – New Home Sales Month-on-Month
Forecast: -1.8% | Previous: -0.6%
Currency: USD
Market mover:
Another monthly decline underlines fragility in housing demand. Extended weakness would weigh on growth sentiment and USD.

✅ Wednesday opens with Japan’s PMI readings, followed by Australia’s CPI update — both key drivers for Asia-Pacific FX. Germany’s Ifo climate shapes the euro session, while U.S. new home sales provide a crucial gauge of housing momentum heading into Q4.

Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events

Australia's Monthly CPI Indicator - 27 August, 2025

Australia’s July CPI surprised sharply to the upside, rising 2.8% year-on-year versus 1.9% previously and above forecasts of 2.3%, the highest pace since July 2024. The jump raised questions over the Reserve Bank of Australia’s easing path, but Commonwealth Bank economist Harry Ottley cautioned against overreacting, pointing to temporary drivers such as the early timing of electricity rebates and seasonal travel costs. Treasurer Jim Chalmers also emphasized that monthly inflation figures are volatile, with the RBA relying more heavily on quarterly data to set policy. The central bank has already cut rates three times this year, bringing the cash rate to 3.60%, and major banks — including CBA, ANZ, NAB, and Westpac — still expect another 25bp cut in November, with NAB and Westpac projecting a further reduction in early 2026. Analysts noted that while the labor market remains resilient, easing inflationary pressures in coming quarters could pave the way for an extended rate-cutting cycle.

Market Note: UNGA & Geopolitics

In the past two days, geopolitical flashpoints intensified across multiple regions. In Europe, NATO members accused Russia of repeated airspace violations while the EU advanced a 19th sanctions package targeting Russian LNG. France also faced mass anti-austerity strikes as the U.K., France, Canada, and Australia formally recognized Palestine, escalating tensions with Israel amid the Gaza conflict. In the Middle East, Israel struck Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, straining a fragile ceasefire. In the Pacific, Papua New Guinea delayed a defense treaty with Australia under Chinese pressure, while China ramped up military activity near Taiwan, sending 15 aircraft and a warship across the Strait’s median line. Meanwhile, Venezuela staged large-scale drills with Russian jets in defiance of U.S. naval deployments. Adding to the global picture, U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to address the U.N. General Assembly at 9 a.m. EDT, where he is expected to use his second-term debut speech to call for narrowing asylum rights and reinforce his “America First” stance, before meeting with leaders from Ukraine, Argentina, and key Middle Eastern nations. Together, these developments underscored mounting global instability with direct implications for markets, energy security, and safe-haven demand.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

Attila Farkas · Sep 24, 2025

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 25, 2025

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: EUR, CHF, USD

06:00 GMT
Germany – GfK Consumer Confidence
Forecast: -23.0 | Previous: -23.6
Currency: EUR
Market insight:
Confidence remains deeply negative, highlighting weak household sentiment. Any improvement would ease eurozone demand worries.

07:30 GMT
Switzerland – SNB Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: 0.0%
Currency: CHF
⚡ Why it matters:
Though steady rates are expected, markets will parse guidance for policy shifts. Even subtle changes in tone can spark sharp CHF volatility.

12:30 GMT
United States – Durable Goods Orders Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.7% | Previous: -2.8%
Currency: USD
Market lens:
A smaller decline signals stabilization in business investment. Markets weigh if weakness is bottoming after recent drops.

12:30 GMT
United States – GDP Growth Rate Quarter-on-Quarter
Forecast: 3.3% | Previous: -0.5%
Currency: USD
Trading angle:
A strong rebound underscores resilient consumption and investment. A beat would reinforce USD strength.

12:30 GMT
United States – Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 240K | Previous: 231K
Currency: USD
Market read:
Slightly higher claims suggest a modest cooling in the labor market, but levels remain historically low.

14:00 GMT
United States – Existing Home Sales Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: 2.0%
Currency: USD
Analyst view:
Housing demand is stalling after last month’s rebound. Persistent softness would weigh on growth-linked sentiment.

14:00 GMT
United States – Existing Home Sales
Forecast: 4.0M | Previous: 4.01M
Currency: USD
Market mover:
Flat sales highlight affordability challenges. A deeper decline would flag fragility in U.S. housing and could temper USD momentum.

✅ Thursday features a mix of European and U.S. data. Germany’s GfK survey gauges consumer mood, while the SNB’s policy call sets the tone for CHF. In the U.S., GDP growth, jobless claims, and durable goods orders shape the macro picture, with housing sales providing an end-of-day check on household demand.

Beyond the Headline: How Markets Digest and React to Data

SNB Interest Rate Decision - 19 June, 2025

On June 19, 2025, the Swiss National Bank cut its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0%, citing easing inflationary pressures after prices dipped into negative territory in May. The central bank projected inflation at 0.2% for 2025, gradually rising to 0.7% by 2027 if rates remained unchanged. The decline was driven by falling tourism and oil prices, while Switzerland’s strong first-quarter growth was boosted by exports to the U.S. ahead of potential tariffs. The SNB also warned of weakening global growth, contrasting rising inflation expectations in the U.S. with falling pressures in Europe. This move came a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve held rates steady amid uncertainty over tariffs and geopolitical tensions.

Geopolitics — Wars, Diplomacy, and Disasters Redraw the Global Map

Between 23–24 September 2025, geopolitics was defined by conflict, diplomacy, and crises across regions. In the Middle East, Israel’s Gaza offensive intensified amid a worsening humanitarian disaster, while Western states including the UK, Canada, Australia, France, and Belgium recognized Palestinian statehood, deepening rifts with Washington. Saudi–Iran détente continued quietly as tensions flared over Gaza-bound aid flotillas. In the Asia-Pacific, Super Typhoon Ragasa devastated Taiwan and southern China, while at the UN the U.S., Japan, and South Korea jointly warned against destabilizing actions around Taiwan and the South China Sea. South Korea promoted phased dialogue with Pyongyang, and Japan braced for a leadership change after Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation. In Europe, Ukraine mounted counterattacks in Donetsk as Zelenskiy gained rhetorical backing from Trump, NATO warned Russia after airspace violations, and the EU weighed sanctions on Israeli ministers while remaining divided over Palestinian recognition. Overall, the period underscored simultaneous wars, shifting alliances, natural disasters, and widening global fault lines.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

Attila Farkas · Sep 25, 2025

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 26, 2025

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: USD, CAD

12:30 GMT
United States – Personal Income Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.4%
Currency: USD
Market insight:
A softer pace of income growth may limit spending momentum, but still points to resilient household finances.

12:30 GMT
United States – Core PCE Price Index Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: USD
⚡ Why it matters:
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A hotter reading could renew rate-hike expectations, while moderation eases pressure on policymakers.

12:30 GMT
United States – Personal Spending Month-on-Month
Forecast: — | Previous: —
Currency: USD
Market lens:
As the largest driver of U.S. GDP, strong spending confirms consumer resilience, while weakness flags slowing demand.

12:30 GMT
United States – Core PCE Price Index Year-on-Year
Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: 2.9%
Currency: USD
Trading angle:
A small uptick signals sticky inflation. Traders will watch for confirmation that price pressures remain above the Fed’s 2% target.

12:30 GMT
Canada – GDP Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -0.1%
Currency: CAD
Market read:
A rebound after contraction points to modest growth momentum. CAD could find support if expansion proves sustainable.

✅ Friday’s spotlight is firmly on U.S. inflation and spending data, with Core PCE in focus as the Fed’s key gauge. Alongside, Canada’s GDP print offers insight into whether growth is stabilizing after July’s decline.

Fade the Spike or Ride the Momentum? News Trading Strategies

29 August, 2025 — Core PCE Inflation (YoY & MoM), Fed’s Key Gauge

US consumer spending rose in July by the most in four months, underscoring resilient demand despite stubborn inflation and a softening labor market. Inflation-adjusted outlays increased 0.3%, boosted by durable goods purchases and income gains, even as consumer sentiment slipped to a three-month low. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE index, climbed 0.3% on the month and 2.9% year-on-year, its highest since February, with services costs driving the increase. Economists warned that tariff-related price pressures could soon curb household demand, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at Jackson Hole, acknowledged tariffs’ visible impact on prices but kept the door open to further rate cuts.

Global Flashpoints: Rising Tensions from Europe to the Middle East

Geopolitical risks sharpened in late September 2025 as President Trump told the UN Ukraine could reclaim all its territory with NATO backing, signaling firmer U.S. support. Moldova heads into pivotal 28 September elections, underscored by the jailing of pro-Russia politician Evghenia Guțul. Denmark reported systematic drone incursions over airports, while Italy and Spain deployed warships to protect a Gaza-bound flotilla after drone strikes. Elsewhere, Guinea approved a new constitution entrenching junta power, Mali–Burkina Faso–Niger quit the ICC, dozens of states recognized Palestine, U.S. envoys cited Syria–Israel de-escalation progress, and Japan’s ruling LDP began its leadership race to replace PM Ishiba, with a decisive vote set for 4 October 2025.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

Attila Farkas · Sep 26, 2025

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 29, 2025

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: USD, JPY

14:30 GMT
United States – Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
Forecast: -7.0 | Previous: -1.8
Currency: USD
Market insight:
A deeper contraction in Texas factory activity highlights regional weakness. Persistent declines could weigh on broader U.S. sentiment.

23:50 GMT
Japan – Industrial Production Month-on-Month (Prel)
Forecast: 0.8% | Previous: -1.2%
Currency: JPY
⚡ Why it matters:
A rebound in output signals industrial momentum is recovering. A strong print may support JPY on growth optimism.
23:50 GMT
Japan – Retail Sales Year-on-Year
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: JPY
Market lens:
Annual growth remains weak, but a slight improvement suggests gradual consumer recovery.
23:50 GMT
Japan – Retail Sales Month-on-Month
Forecast: 1.0% | Previous: -1.6%
Currency: JPY
Trading angle:
A sharp rebound in monthly sales points to stronger domestic demand. Sustained momentum would be supportive for the yen.

✅ Monday is light on releases but still impactful. The Dallas Fed index offers a regional U.S. manufacturing read, while Japan delivers key end-of-day figures on production and consumption. Together, they set the tone for USD/JPY volatility heading into Tuesday’s trade.

Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events

Japan's Retail Sales & Industrial Production MoM - 29 August, 2025

In July 2025, Japan’s economy showed renewed strain as both industrial output and consumer demand weakened, according to METI data. Industrial production fell 1.2% month-on-month, a slightly smaller drop than the preliminary 1.6% estimate but still the sharpest since November 2024, reversing June’s 2.1% gain. The downturn was driven by steep declines in motor vehicles (-6.7%), production machinery (-6.3%), and general-purpose machinery (-4.5%), leaving output down 0.4% year-on-year after a strong rebound in June. On the consumer side, retail sales dropped 1.6% month-on-month, the steepest fall since August 2021, erasing June’s 0.9% rise. Annual growth slowed to just 0.3%, the weakest since February 2022, as inflation and sluggish wage gains eroded purchasing power. While spending rose on clothing, cosmetics, and food, it was outweighed by sharp declines in department stores, fuel, autos, and online sales, underscoring mounting pressure on household demand.

Global Flashpoints: Rising Tensions from Europe to the Middle East

In late September 2025, geopolitical flashpoints sharpened across multiple regions. At the UN, President Trump signaled firmer U.S. backing for Kyiv, declaring Ukraine could reclaim all its territory with NATO support. In Moldova, the pivotal 28 September elections loom, set against the jailing of pro-Russian politician Evghenia Guțul. Denmark reported systematic drone incursions near airports, while Japan’s ruling LDP launched its leadership contest to replace PM Ishiba, with a decisive vote scheduled for 4 October 2025. Meanwhile, Iran is reported to be rebuilding missile-production sites damaged in its June war with Israel, though it is said that key equipment such as planetary mixers for solid-fuel weapons may still be missing. Reports indicate reconstruction efforts are underway, raising concerns that Tehran could eventually restore production capacity, possibly with outside assistance.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

Attila Farkas · Sep 29, 2025

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 30, 2025

✅ Tuesday’s calendar highlights high-impact news releases across the globe: China PMIs set the Asian tone, the RBA anchors Australia, Europe tracks retail, inflation, and labor data, while the U.S. delivers Chicago PMI, JOLTs, and CB confidence. The day ends with NZ and Japan releases — expect volatility across majors.

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CNY, AUD, EUR, USD, NZD, JPY

01:30 GMT
China – NBS Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: 49.9 | Previous: 49.4
Currency: CNY
Market insight:
A move closer to 50 signals stabilization in state-led manufacturing. Sustained weakness, however, underscores ongoing demand headwinds.
01:30 GMT
Australia – Building Permits Month-on-Month (Prel)
Forecast: -4.0% | Previous: -8.2%
Currency: AUD
Market lens:
Approvals remain in contraction, pointing to soft construction momentum and fragile housing demand.
01:45 GMT
China – RatingDog Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: 50.8 | Previous: 50.5
Currency: CNY
⚡ Why it matters:
A steady improvement above 50 reflects healthier private-sector activity. Gains here support recovery expectations for China’s economy.

04:30 GMT
Australia – RBA Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 3.6% | Previous: 3.6%
Currency: AUD
Trading angle:
The RBA is set to hold, but forward guidance will be crucial. Any hawkish shift could lift AUD, while dovish tone pressures it.

06:00 GMT
Germany – Retail Sales Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.9% | Previous: -1.5%
Currency: EUR
Market read:
A rebound after sharp losses shows household demand improving. Stronger sales would ease eurozone growth concerns.
06:00 GMT
Germany – Retail Sales Year-on-Year
Forecast: 2.2% | Previous: 1.9%
Currency: EUR
Analyst view:
Annual gains point to gradual consumption recovery, though still fragile compared to historical averages.

06:45 GMT
France – Producer Price Index Year-on-Year
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 0.4%
Currency: EUR
Market mover:
Producer prices inching up highlight cost pressures, watched closely for inflation spillover.
06:45 GMT
France – Inflation Rate Year-on-Year (Prel)
Forecast: 1.2% | Previous: 0.9%
Currency: EUR
Snapshot:
An uptick suggests inflation is firming again. Higher prints could sway ECB policy debate.
06:45 GMT
France – Inflation Rate Month-on-Month (Prel)
Forecast: -0.9% | Previous: 0.4%
Currency: EUR
Fast track:
A sharp monthly drop reflects seasonal effects but eases immediate inflation fears.
06:45 GMT
France – Producer Price Index Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.4%
Currency: EUR
Takeaway:
Producer costs remain subdued, reinforcing the narrative of limited upstream price pressure.

07:55 GMT
Germany – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 6.3% | Previous: 6.3%
Currency: EUR
Investor focus:
Stable unemployment suggests resilience, though stagnant levels show limited progress on labor strength.

12:00 GMT
Germany – Inflation Rate Year-on-Year (Prel)
Forecast: 2.3% | Previous: 2.2%
Currency: EUR
Market lens:
Slightly higher annual inflation keeps pressure on the ECB to stay cautious.
12:00 GMT
Germany – Inflation Rate Month-on-Month (Prel)
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.1%
Currency: EUR
Market view:
Steady monthly gains reinforce the stickiness of price momentum.

13:45 GMT
United States – Chicago PMI
Forecast: 41.0 | Previous: 41.5
Currency: USD
Market check:
Manufacturing in the Midwest remains in contraction. Investors watch for consistency with ISM reports.

14:00 GMT
United States – JOLTs Job Openings
Forecast: 7.1M | Previous: 7.18M
Currency: USD
Quick take:
A modest decline still points to a tight labor market. Elevated job openings keep wage and inflation risks alive.
14:00 GMT
United States – CB Consumer Confidence
Forecast: 95.0 | Previous: 97.4
Currency: USD
Trading angle:
Consumer confidence slipping reflects household caution. Weaker readings could weigh on USD via growth sentiment.

21:45 GMT
New Zealand – Building Permits Month-on-Month
Forecast: -4.3% | Previous: 5.4%
Currency: NZD
Market read:
Volatile permits signal swings in housing investment. A steep drop underscores fragility in construction demand.

23:50 GMT
Japan – Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
Forecast: 15 | Previous: 13
Currency: JPY
Analyst view:
Stronger optimism among manufacturers signals improving corporate sentiment, supportive for JPY.
23:50 GMT
Japan – Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index
Forecast: 40 | Previous: 34
Currency: JPY
Market mover:
Services optimism continues to climb, highlighting confidence in domestic recovery momentum.

⚡ Trading the News: A Guide to High-Impact Event Volatility

BLS JOLTS Job Openings – July 2025 Figures, Released September 3, 2025

In July 2025, U.S. job openings were little changed at 7.2 million, with the openings rate steady at 4.3%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Hires and total separations both stood at 5.3 million, or 3.3%. Quits held at 3.2 million, equal to 2.0%, while layoffs and discharges remained at 1.8 million, or 1.1%. Industry trends showed notable declines in openings across health care and social assistance (-181,000), arts and entertainment (-62,000), and mining (-13,000). Quits rose in professional and business services (+197,000) but fell in construction (-80,000) and transportation and utilities (-49,000). Layoffs declined sharply in professional and business services (-130,000) but ticked higher in the federal government. June’s figures were revised to show fewer openings but stronger hires and separations than first reported, underscoring a still-fluid labor market.

Market Update

Earnings reports are a key driver of stocks and indices, with strong results lifting valuations and weak numbers triggering selloffs. However, geopolitical tensions can swiftly overshadow fundamentals, often boosting safe-haven gold and oil prices on supply fears, while adding volatility across equities, bonds, and currencies.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

Attila Farkas · Sep 30, 2025

️ High Impact Economic Calendar – October 1, 2025

A new month kicks off with a calendar packed with high-impact releases. From Swiss retail activity to Eurozone inflation and U.S. labor + manufacturing data, the stage is set for sharp moves across CHF, EUR, and USD. Traders — buckle up, the numbers below will reset market expectations in an instant.

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CHF, EUR, USD

06:30 GMT
Switzerland – Retail Sales Year-on-Year
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.7%
Currency: CHF
Market insight:
A slowdown in annual sales highlights weak consumer demand. Any further decline would weigh on growth sentiment for CHF.
06:30 GMT
Switzerland – Retail Sales Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.3% | Previous: -0.5%
Currency: CHF
Market lens:
Retail activity remains soft but stabilizing. A smaller decline suggests marginal improvement.

09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Inflation Rate Month-on-Month (Flash)
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.1%
Currency: EUR
Trading angle:
Stable monthly inflation shows price momentum remains contained. A surprise jump will pressure the ECB’s outlook.
09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Inflation Rate Year-on-Year (Flash)
Forecast: 2.2% | Previous: 2.0%
Currency: EUR
⚡ Why it matters:
An uptick in annual inflation keeps pressure on the ECB, signaling price growth isn’t cooling as quickly as hoped.
09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Core Inflation Rate Year-on-Year (Flash)
Forecast: 2.3% | Previous: 2.3%
Currency: EUR
Market read:
Core inflation holding steady shows underlying pressures remain sticky, limiting room for aggressive easing.

12:15 GMT
United States – ADP Employment Change
Forecast: 40K | Previous: 54K
Currency: USD
Analyst view:
Slower private-sector job growth highlights cooling labor demand. Traders use this as a preview ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls.

14:00 GMT
United States – ISM Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: 49.0 | Previous: 48.7
Currency: USD
Market mover:
A reading below 50 signals contraction, though improvement from August shows manufacturing is stabilizing.

✅ Wednesday brings Eurozone inflation and U.S. labor + manufacturing data into focus — key releases set to guide ECB and Fed policy expectations into October.

How Markets React to Major Economic Announcements

Key U.S. Data Releases: ADP, Jobless Claims, ISM Services - 4 September, 2025

U.S. labor market data in August pointed to significant cooling, as ADP reported just 54,000 private-sector jobs added, well below expectations and down from July’s revised 106,000, with losses in trade, transportation, education, and health partly offset by gains in leisure and hospitality. Weekly jobless claims rose to 237,000, while job openings fell to 7.2 million, the lowest since 2020, underscoring slowing momentum even as the unemployment rate held at 4.2%. Recent reports showed job gains averaging only 35,000 a month over the past quarter, prompting President Trump to fire the head of the data agency, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a possible rate cut at the Sept. 16–17 meeting. Meanwhile, U.S. services activity showed resilience, with ISM’s PMI rising to 52 on stronger business activity and new orders, though the employment index remained in contraction for a third straight month.

Market Note – U.S. Government Shutdown Timeline

The U.S. faces a shutdown risk as funding talks stall. If no deal is reached by midnight on Tuesday, Sept. 30, the U.S. government will shut down starting 12:01 a.m. ET Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025.
Immediate impact: Non-essential services shut, federal workers furloughed, essential staff work without pay.
First days: Economic data releases may be delayed, federal contracts slowed, markets turn volatile.
Extended shutdown: GDP growth takes a hit, confidence erodes, airports and services risk disruption.
⚠️ Short shutdowns have limited impact, but a prolonged closure can drag on the economy and fuel market instability.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

Attila Farkas · Oct 1, 2025

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 2, 2025

⚡ Thursday’s calendar features only high-impact releases — from Australia’s household spending and trade balance to Swiss inflation, Eurozone unemployment, and key U.S. labor and factory data. Japan closes the session with fresh unemployment figures, keeping JPY pairs in focus.

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, JPY, CHF, EUR, USD

01:30 GMT
Australia – Household Spending Year-on-Year
Forecast: 5.3% | Previous: 5.1%
Currency: AUD
Market insight:
Household demand remains strong. Any upside surprise reinforces resilience in consumer activity, supporting AUD.

01:30 GMT
Australia – Balance of Trade
Forecast: A$7.1B | Previous: A$7.31B
Currency: AUD
Market lens:
A smaller surplus signals softer export momentum. Strong trade balances remain vital to AUD strength.

05:00 GMT
Japan – Consumer Confidence
Forecast: 35.5 | Previous: 34.9
Currency: JPY
Trading angle:
Confidence edging higher shows improving sentiment, but still well below neutral levels — highlighting cautious households.

06:30 GMT
Switzerland – Inflation Rate Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: -0.1%
Currency: CHF
Market read:
Flat prices point to subdued inflation momentum. A steeper decline would reduce policy pressure on the SNB.

06:30 GMT
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.2%
Currency: CHF
⚡ Why it matters:
Persistently low annual inflation underscores Switzerland’s deflation risks, keeping CHF sensitive to policy commentary.

09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 6.2% | Previous: 6.2%
Currency: EUR
Analyst view:
A stable jobless rate confirms labor resilience. Any surprise rise sparks growth concerns and weighs on EUR.

12:30 GMT
United States – Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 223K | Previous: 218K
Currency: USD
Market mover:
Weekly claims remain low, showing continued labor market strength. Higher numbers would ease Fed policy pressure.

14:00 GMT
United States – Factory Orders Month-on-Month
Forecast: 1.4% | Previous: -1.3%
Currency: USD
Snapshot:
A strong rebound signals recovering industrial momentum, supportive for USD and risk sentiment.

23:30 GMT
Japan – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 2.4% | Previous: 2.3%
Currency: JPY
Fast track:
A slight uptick still leaves Japan with one of the lowest global unemployment rates, reinforcing labor market tightness.

✅ Thursday offers a global mix of spending, inflation, and labor data. U.S. releases remain the main driver, but early moves in AUD and late JPY data will shape market direction across sessions.

I will be sharing a chart along with a case study of a trade setup.

The chart below presents Switzerland’s high-impact inflation rate release on September 4, 2025, at 06:30 AM GMT, shown through a 15-minute candlestick snapshot of the USD/CHF forex pair.

USDCHF Inflation Rate Release - 4 September, 2025

In August 2025, Swiss consumer prices fell by 0.1% from the previous month, bringing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 107.7 points (December 2020 = 100). Inflation stood at just +0.2% year-on-year, while core inflation slipped 0.1% month-on-month but rose 0.7% compared to a year earlier. The decline was largely driven by lower prices for international package holidays, accommodation, and air transport, while housing rentals and clothing and footwear increased. Domestic products dropped 0.1% on the month but rose 0.6% year-on-year, whereas imported products declined both monthly and annually, down 1.3% year-on-year.

This weak inflation backdrop meant that price growth remained well below the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) stability target. With imported goods exerting a deflationary pull and core inflation subdued, the release reinforced expectations that the SNB had little urgency to tighten monetary policy. Instead, markets interpreted the data as supportive of maintaining accommodative conditions, with the policy rate expected to remain at 0% for an extended period.

I have prepared a Trade Setup study based on the USDCHF chart.

At the open price of 0.80439, trading 1 standard lot with 1:500 leverage would require a margin of $200 USD.
At the same open price of 0.80439, trading 1 standard lot with 1:2000 leverage would require a margin of $50 USD.

Profit Study:

The study below illustrates not only the margin required but also the profit potential from this setup, showing how different leverage options can significantly enhance trading opportunities.

Pip Value for USDCHF: $12.43 USD per pip per standard lot

Entering the trade at Point (A) 0.80439 and closing at Point (B) 0.80592 would have yielded a gain of 15.3 pips, equivalent to $190.23 USD.
Entering at Opening Point (A) 0.80439 and holding through the U.S. high-impact release before closing at Point (C) 0.80719 would have yielded 28.0 pips, equivalent to $348.04 USD.

Attila Farkas · Oct 2, 2025

️High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 3, 2025

⚡ Friday's calendar is loaded with only high-impact releases . France opens with industrial output, the Euro Area follows with producer price data, and the US dominates the session with Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment, wages, and ISM services — all of which will drive major volatility across USD and EUR pairs.

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: EUR, USD

06:45 GMT
France – Industrial Production Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: -1.1%
Currency: EUR
Market insight:
A smaller decline suggests stabilization after sharp July weakness. Stronger production would ease concerns over French growth momentum.

09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Producer Price Index Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: 0.4%
Currency: EUR
Market lens:
Flat prices signal limited upstream cost pressures. Any upside surprise could revive inflation concerns.
09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Producer Price Index Year-on-Year
Forecast: -0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
Currency: EUR
⚡ Why it matters:
Annual PPI slipping negative reinforces disinflation pressures in the Eurozone, keeping ECB policy cautious.

12:30 GMT
United States – Nonfarm Payrolls
Forecast: 50K | Previous: 22K
Currency: USD
Market mover:
The headline jobs figure remains the most-watched US release. A strong surprise will boost USD, while a miss will weigh heavily.
12:30 GMT
United States – Average Hourly Earnings Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: USD
Market read:
Wage growth moderating shows easing inflationary pressure. Fed policy expectations hinge closely on this number.
12:30 GMT
United States – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 4.3% | Previous: 4.3%
Currency: USD
Analyst view:
A stable jobless rate signals steady labor market conditions. Any surprise rise would increase concerns about slowing growth.

14:00 GMT
United States – ISM Services PMI
Forecast: 51 | Previous: 52
Currency: USD
Snapshot:
Services activity moderating but still expanding above 50. A sharp dip below 50 would spark recession fears and weigh on USD.

✅ Friday's lineup is dominated by US labour market and services data, with NFP at the centre. Expect heightened volatility across USD pairs, and EUR to react to earlier production and PPI signals.

The chart below illustrates the study of the US high-impact Non-Farm Payrolls release on September 5, 2025, at 12:30 PM GMT, shown through a 5-minute candlestick view of the GBP/USD forex pair. It highlights the immediate reaction and subsequent price movement following the release, offering insight into how labour market data drives volatility in the currency market.

GBPUSD Reaction to US Non-Farm Payrolls – September 5, 2025

Here's a quick breakdown of the latest US Non-Farm Payrolls report, explaining how weak job numbers, rising unemployment, and political uncertainty shaped market sentiment.

The US economy added just 22,000 jobs in August, well below the 75,000 expected, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. The weak report came amid political turmoil after President Trump fired BLS Director Erika McEntarfer following July's dismal numbers and major downward revisions, sparking concerns over data integrity. Economists and labour experts defended the BLS, citing structural survey challenges and seasonal factors, while private-sector indicators also pointed to slowing hiring, with layoffs up 40% and job openings falling to 7.18 million. Manufacturing lost 12,000 jobs despite Trump's tariff push, and wage growth softened. Markets viewed the data as cementing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut later in September, though broader fears of an economic slowdown kept investor cautious sentiment.

Profit Study:
The Profit Study below shows the margin required and potential profit for this setup, with examples of how leverage affects trading outcomes.

At the open price of 1.34781, trading 1 standard lot with 1:500 leverage would require a margin of $269.56 USD.
At the same open price of 1.34781, trading 1 standard lot with 1:2000 leverage would require a margin of $67.39 USD.

Pip Value for GBPUSD: $10 USD per pip per standard lot.

For example, entering at Point (A) 1.34781 and closing at Point (B) 1.35545 would have captured 76.4 pips, equal to $764 USD profit on 1 standard lot.

Attila Farkas · Oct 3, 2025

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 6, 2025

⚡ Monday’s calendar features only high-impact releases — starting with Switzerland’s unemployment, Euro Area retail activity, and closing with Japan’s household spending and Australia’s consumer sentiment. Expect early moves in CHF and EUR, with JPY and AUD taking the spotlight in late trading.

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CHF, EUR, JPY, AUD

07:00 GMT
Switzerland – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 2.7% | Previous: 2.8%
Currency: CHF
Market insight:
A marginal decline shows continued labor market strength. Stability below 3% highlights Switzerland’s resilient job market.

09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Retail Sales Year-on-Year
Forecast: 2.0% | Previous: 2.2%
Currency: EUR
⚡ Why it matters:
Annual retail growth reflects consumer demand across the bloc. A miss would signal weaker momentum in household spending.
09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Retail Sales Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -0.5%
Currency: EUR
Market read:
Monthly data provides the timeliest view of consumer activity. A rebound from last month’s drop would support EUR sentiment.

23:30 GMT
Japan – Household Spending Year-on-Year
Forecast: 1.2% | Previous: 1.4%
Currency: JPY
Trading angle:
Slower spending growth shows household caution. A weak print reinforces disinflation risks, dovish for JPY.

23:30 GMT
Australia – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
Forecast: 3.2% | Previous: -3.1%
Currency: AUD
Analyst view:
A sharp swing into positive territory highlights improved sentiment. Stronger confidence supports AUD, especially if paired with robust retail data later in the week.

✅ Monday sets the tone for the week, with European consumer data and Swiss unemployment shaping early flows, while Asia-Pacific closes with sentiment and household spending — keeping volatility alive across CHF, EUR, JPY, and AUD.

The chart below presents a study of Switzerland’s high-impact Unemployment Rate release on September 4, 2025, at 07:00 AM GMT, using a 5-minute candlestick view of the USD/CHF forex pair. It captures the immediate reaction and subsequent price movement up until the next U.S. data release, isolating the impact of Swiss unemployment figures and showing how labor market data can drive volatility in the franc.

Swiss Unemployment Rate Release - 4 September, 2025

Switzerland’s labor market showed signs of cooling in August 2025, with the unemployment rate for 15–24 year olds rising to 3.2% from 2.7%, its highest since March 2021. Overall, the country’s non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate ticked up to 2.8%, ending a three-month run at 2.7% that had been the lowest since late 2024. The total number of unemployed increased by 3,000 to 132,100, the most in five months, while youth unemployment rose by 2,200 to 13,700. Job vacancies also declined by 1,900 to 37,900, reaching an eight-month low. On a seasonally adjusted basis, however, the jobless rate was unchanged at 2.9%.

Profit Study:

The Profit Study below shows the margin required and potential profit for this setup, with examples of how leverage affects trading outcomes.

At the open price of 0.80481, trading 1 standard lot with 1:500 leverage would require a margin of $200 USD.
At the same open price of 0.80481, trading 1 standard lot with 1:2000 leverage would require a margin of $50 USD.

Pip Value for GBPUSD: $12.43 USD per pip per standard lot.

For example, entering at Point (A) 0.80481 and closing at Point (B) 0.80592 would have captured 11.1 pips, equal to $137.92 USD profit on 1 standard lot.

Attila Farkas · Monday at 13:01

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 7, 2025

⚡ Tuesday’s session featured only high-impact releases, led by Australia’s consumer sentiment, Germany’s factory data, and Canada’s Ivey PMI. These indicators shaped early risk appetite in Asia, industrial outlook in Europe, and late-session momentum in CAD pairs.

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, EUR, CAD

00:30 GMT
Australia – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
Forecast: 3.2% | Previous: -3.1%
Currency: AUD
Market insight:
A strong rebound in sentiment signals improving household optimism. Rising confidence often precedes stronger retail activity and supports AUD in early trading.

06:00 GMT
Germany – Factory Orders Month-on-Month
Forecast: 1.5% | Previous: -2.9%
Currency: EUR
Market lens:
After a sharp drop in August, factory orders are expected to recover. A stronger rebound would point to industrial stabilization and lend support to EUR.

14:00 GMT
Canada – Ivey PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)
Forecast: 51.0 | Previous: 50.1
Currency: CAD
Market mover:
An uptick above 50 confirms expansion in business activity. A strong print reinforces confidence in Canada’s growth outlook, potentially strengthening CAD.

✅ Tuesday’s calendar highlights sentiment, production, and business activity across three key regions. Market focus remained on whether improving confidence and factory demand could offset signs of a broader global slowdown.

The chart below examines Canada’s high-impact Ivey PMI release on September 5, 2025, at 14:00 GMT, through a 5-minute candlestick analysis of the USD/CAD forex pair. It highlights the immediate market reaction and ensuing price movement, isolating the influence of the Ivey PMI data and demonstrating how key economic releases can trigger volatility in the Canadian dollar (CAD).

Canada's Ivey PMI Release - 5 September, 2025

In early September 2025, Canada’s economy showed signs of slowing as the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropped to a three-month low of 50.1 in August, down sharply from 55.8 in July. The data reflected weaker employment, with the jobs sub-index falling to 46.0, and easing price pressures. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Mark Carney prepared for a Washington visit to meet U.S. President Donald Trump ahead of a North American trade agreement review. The week also featured Toronto’s Elevate tech conference with speakers from Shopify, OpenAI, and Coinbase, while Hudson’s Bay sought court approval to auction its historic 1670 royal charter following a surprise bid. BRP Inc. unveiled its “Mission 28” strategic plan during its investor day, and attention turned to Statistics Canada’s upcoming September labour force survey after the nation lost 66,000 jobs in August, pushing unemployment to 7.1%.

Profit Study:

The Profit Study below shows the margin required and potential profit for this setup, with examples of how leverage affects trading outcomes.

At the open price of 1.37991, trading 1 standard lot with 1:500 leverage would require a margin of $200 USD.
At the same open price of 1.37991, trading 1 standard lot with 1:2000 leverage would require a margin of $50 USD.

Pip Value for USDCAD: $7.25 USD per pip per standard lot.

For example, entering at Point (A) 1.37991 and closing at Point (B) 1.38541 would have captured 55.0 pips, equal to $398.58 USD profit on 1 standard lot.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

Attila Farkas · Tuesday at 11:56

High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 8, 2025

⚡ Wednesday’s session featured only high-impact releases, beginning with New Zealand’s rate decision, followed by Germany’s industrial output, the U.S. FOMC Minutes, and the U.K.’s housing data. These events offered crucial insight into monetary-policy direction, manufacturing momentum, and housing-market sentiment across major economies.

Preparing ahead of high-impact news releases is essential, as these events often trigger sharp volatility, widen spreads, and shift market direction within seconds. Staying informed allows you to view forecasts in advance and prepare to enter the market accordingly, helping manage risk and avoid unexpected price movements.

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: NZD, EUR, USD, GBP

02:00 GMT
New Zealand – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 3.0%
Currency: NZD
Why Traders Care:
Short-term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation — most other indicators are analyzed primarily to predict how rates may change in the future.

06:00 GMT
Germany – Industrial Production Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.8% | Previous: 1.3%
Currency: EUR
Market lens:
A sharp monthly drop signaled a slowdown after strong prior growth. Persistent weakness in output could weigh on the euro as industrial headwinds deepen.

18:00 GMT
United States – FOMC Minutes
Currency: USD
Why Traders Care:
It’s a detailed record of the FOMC’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.

23:01 GMT
United Kingdom – RICS House Price Balance
Forecast: -18% | Previous: -19%
Currency: GBP
Market view:
A slightly less negative balance suggested tentative stabilization, but overall weakness persisted amid elevated borrowing costs and muted housing demand.

✅ Wednesday’s calendar spanned four major economies — from monetary easing in New Zealand to industrial data in Europe and policy insight from the U.S. Fed. The combination of dovish central-bank tones and softer production data kept sentiment cautious, with attention shifting to upcoming inflation figures later in the week.

This chart analyses the NZD/USD's 5-minute price action following the high-impact RBNZ Interest Rate Decision on August 20, 2025. It captures the immediate market reaction and subsequent volatility, demonstrating how key economic data drives sharp movements in the New Zealand Dollar.

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision - 20 August, 2025

Below is a summary of how the market responded to New Zealand’s interest rate decision on August 20, 2025, including key policy changes and price action in NZD/USD.

On August 20, 2025, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 3.25% to 3.00%, as expected, and signaled further easing ahead, projecting two more reductions to 2.5% by March 2026. The bank cited a stalled recovery in the June quarter driven by global policy uncertainty, weaker employment, higher essential prices, and declining house values. Inflation is now forecast to peak at 3% in the September quarter—at the top of the RBNZ’s target range—before easing gradually through 2026, while unemployment is expected to rise to 5.3% and remain above 5% until late next year. Economic growth is projected to stay modest, with quarterly GDP expanding only 0.3% to 0.8% in the near term before softening further. The New Zealand dollar fell about 80 pips to 0.5827 against the U.S. dollar following the announcement, as traders priced in expectations of deeper rate cuts and prolonged monetary accommodation, with economists like BNZ’s Stephen Toplis revising forecasts to align with the RBNZ’s more dovish outlook.

Profit Study:

The Profit Study below shows the margin required and potential profit for this setup, with examples of how leverage affects trading outcomes.

At the open price of 0.58881, trading 1 standard lot with 1:500 leverage would require a margin of $117.76 USD.
At the same open price of 0.58881, trading 1 standard lot with 1:2000 leverage would require a margin of $29.44 USD.

Pip Value for NZDUSD: $10 USD per pip per standard lot.

For example, entering at Point (A) 0.58881 and closing at Point (B) 0.58150 would have captured 73.1pips, equal to $731 USD profit on 1 standard lot.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

Attila Farkas · Wednesday at 12:39

High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 9, 2025

⚡ Thursday’s session featured only high-impact releases, focusing on Germany’s trade balance and Japan’s producer prices. These data points offered critical insight into global trade dynamics and inflation trends, both of which can shape monetary policy expectations and currency direction.

Preparing ahead of high-impact news releases is essential, as these events often trigger sharp volatility, widen spreads, and shift market direction within seconds. Staying informed allows you to view forecasts in advance and prepare to enter the market accordingly, helping manage risk and avoid unexpected price movements.

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: EUR, JPY

06:00 GMT
Germany – Balance of Trade
Forecast: €16.1B | Previous: €14.7B
Currency: EUR
Why Traders Care:
A strong trade surplus supports the euro as it indicates higher demand for German exports and overall economic resilience. Shifts in trade balances also reflect global demand trends that can influence eurozone growth and ECB policy outlook.

23:50 GMT
Japan – Producer Price Index Year-on-Year
Forecast: 2.7% | Previous: 2.7%
Currency: JPY
Market lens:
Stable producer inflation signals steady input costs. Any upside surprise could pressure the Bank of Japan if cost pass-through risks rise.

23:50 GMT
Japan – Producer Price Index Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: -0.2%
Currency: JPY
Market mover:
A positive rebound points to increasing wholesale prices, hinting at upstream inflation pressures that could influence BOJ communication.

✅ Thursday’s calendar centered on trade and price data — with Germany’s strong export sector balancing Japan’s cautious inflation outlook. Market focus remained on whether rising producer prices could sustain the yen’s momentum against a backdrop of global trade rebalancing.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. This analysis is intended to enhance your understanding of market behavior and illustrate potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insight into how the market operates and the factors that can influence price movements.

Attila Farkas · 2025-10-09T12:02:21+0100

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 10, 2025

⚡ Friday’s session featured only high-impact releases, led by Canada’s employment data and the U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. These releases provided crucial insight into labor market strength and consumer confidence — key drivers influencing monetary policy expectations and currency volatility.

Preparing ahead of high-impact news releases is essential, as these events often trigger sharp volatility, widen spreads, and shift market direction within seconds. Staying informed allows you to view forecasts in advance and prepare to enter the market accordingly, helping manage risk and avoid unexpected price movements.

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CAD, USD

12:30 GMT
Canada – Employment Change
Forecast: 15K | Previous: -65.5K
Currency: CAD
Why Traders Care:
Employment is a key indicator of overall economic health. Strong job growth supports household spending and reinforces expectations for stable or tighter monetary policy, while weak numbers raise concerns over economic slowdown.

12:30 GMT
Canada – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 7.1% | Previous: 7.1%
Currency: CAD
Market lens:
A steady jobless rate signals a balanced labor market, but any uptick may weigh on CAD if accompanied by weak job creation.

12:30 GMT
Canada – Full-Time Employment Change
Forecast: 35K | Previous: -6K
Currency: CAD
Market mover:
A rebound in full-time positions underscores labor-market resilience. Sustained growth would strengthen CAD and ease recession fears.

14:00 GMT
United States – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary)
Forecast: 54.0 | Previous: 55.1
Currency: USD
Why Traders Care:
The survey captures household expectations for personal finances and the economy. Shifts in sentiment often lead changes in consumer spending, making it a key indicator of near-term U.S. growth momentum.

✅ Labour and sentiment data from North America dominate Friday’s calendar. Market attention centred on whether Canada’s job rebound could offset prior losses, while U.S. confidence readings guided expectations for year-end consumer demand and potential Fed tone adjustments.

This chart examines the CAD/JPY 5-minute price movement following the release of Canada’s Unemployment Rate, Employment Change, and Full-Time Employment Change data on September 5, 2025. It highlights the pair’s immediate reaction and ensuing volatility, illustrating how major economic indicators can trigger swift and significant shifts in the Canadian Dollar.

Canada's Labour Data - 5 September, 2025

Canada’s job market weakened sharply in August as employment fell by 65,500, following a 40,800 decline in July, pushing the unemployment rate up to 7.1%, its highest level since 2016 outside the pandemic period. The losses were concentrated in part-time (-60k) and self-employed (-43k) positions, though full-time and private sector jobs also edged lower. Hours worked rose slightly by 0.1%, suggesting modest GDP growth in Q3, but overall conditions continued to soften as wage growth cooled to 3.2% year over year. By industry, manufacturing (-19.2k) and transportation & warehousing (-22.7k) saw the steepest declines amid trade tensions, while construction (+17.1k) and hospitality (+9.2k) provided rare gains. Job losses were widespread, hitting eight of ten provinces, led by Ontario (-26k), B.C. (-15.7k), and Alberta (-14.2k), where unemployment climbed to 8.4%. The report underscored growing economic fragility and strengthened expectations for further easing by the Bank of Canada, pending upcoming inflation data.

Profit Study

The Profit Study below illustrates the required margin and potential profit for this setup, using examples that show how leverage impacts trading outcomes.

At the time of this release, USD/CAD traded at 1.37879.

At an open price of 107.314, trading 1 standard lot with 1:500 leverage required a margin of $200 CAD ($145.05 USD).
At the same open price and 1:2000 leverage, the required margin dropped to $50 CAD ($36.26 USD).

Pip Value (CAD/JPY): $9.32 CAD ($6.76 USD) per pip per standard lot.

For example, entering at Point A (107.314) and closing at Point B (106.170) would have captured 114.4 pips, equivalent to a $1,066.21 CAD ($773.29 USD) profit on one standard lot.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

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️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 16, 2025​

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From News to Price Action: A Guide to High-Impact Events​

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Canada's Inflation Release Data - 19 August, 2025​

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Beyond the Headline: How Markets Digest and React to Data​

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BoE Interest Rate Decision and Governor Bailey’s Remarks – August 7, 2025​

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Market Note: Geopolitical Risk – September 16–17, 2025​

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BoJ Interest Rate Decision - 31 July, 2025​

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️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 22, 2025​

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Geopolitical Watch: Conflicts, Protests, and Sanctions Shaping Market Sentiment​

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️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 23, 2025​

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Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​

U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash - 21 August, 2025​

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UN General Assembly Opens Amid Escalating Global Tensions and Market Risks​

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Market Note: UNGA & Geopolitics​

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️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 29, 2025​

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Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​

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Japan's Retail Sales & Industrial Production MoM - 29 August, 2025​

Global Flashpoints: Rising Tensions from Europe to the Middle East​

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️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 30, 2025​

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⚡ Trading the News: A Guide to High-Impact Event Volatility​

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Market Update​

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️ High Impact Economic Calendar – October 1, 2025​

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How Markets React to Major Economic Announcements​

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Key U.S. Data Releases: ADP, Jobless Claims, ISM Services - 4 September, 2025​

Market Note – U.S. Government Shutdown Timeline​

Active Trader

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 15, 2025

A Trader's Guide to High-Impact News Volatility

China's Economic Pulse: Output, Retail, and Employment - 15 August, 2025

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 16, 2025

From News to Price Action: A Guide to High-Impact Events

Canada's Inflation Release Data - 19 August, 2025

Geopolitical Risks Update – Sept 15, 2025

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 17, 2025

From Announcement to Action: How Key News Moves the Markets

U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision - 30 July, 2025

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 18, 2025

Beyond the Headline: How Markets Digest and React to Data

BoE Interest Rate Decision and Governor Bailey’s Remarks – August 7, 2025

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk – September 16–17, 2025

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 15, 2025

⚡Anticipating the Move: Preparing for High-Impact News Volatility

BoJ Interest Rate Decision - 31 July, 2025

Regional Flashpoints Roundup – September 17–18, 2025

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 22, 2025

Geopolitical Watch: Conflicts, Protests, and Sanctions Shaping Market Sentiment

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 23, 2025

Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events

U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash - 21 August, 2025

UN General Assembly Opens Amid Escalating Global Tensions and Market Risks

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 24, 2025

Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events

Australia's Monthly CPI Indicator - 27 August, 2025

Market Note: UNGA & Geopolitics

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 25, 2025

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 26, 2025

Fade the Spike or Ride the Momentum? News Trading Strategies

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 29, 2025

Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events

Japan's Retail Sales & Industrial Production MoM - 29 August, 2025

Global Flashpoints: Rising Tensions from Europe to the Middle East

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 30, 2025

⚡ Trading the News: A Guide to High-Impact Event Volatility

BLS JOLTS Job Openings – July 2025 Figures, Released September 3, 2025

Market Update

️ High Impact Economic Calendar – October 1, 2025

How Markets React to Major Economic Announcements

Key U.S. Data Releases: ADP, Jobless Claims, ISM Services - 4 September, 2025

Market Note – U.S. Government Shutdown Timeline

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 2, 2025

USDCHF Inflation Rate Release - 4 September, 2025

️High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 3, 2025

GBPUSD Reaction to US Non-Farm Payrolls – September 5, 2025

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 6, 2025

Swiss Unemployment Rate Release - 4 September, 2025

Profit Study:

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 7, 2025

Canada's Ivey PMI Release - 5 September, 2025

Profit Study:

High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 8, 2025

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision - 20 August, 2025

High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 9, 2025

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 10, 2025

Canada's Labour Data - 5 September, 2025

Profit Study