Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

GBP/USD: POUND IS APPROACHING RESISTANCE
04:59 08.06.2017
Technical levels: support – 1.2910; resistance – 1.2980.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 1.2980; SL — 1.3000; TP1 — 1.2910; TP2 — 1.2870.
Reason: narrow bullish Ichimoku Cloud and horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with horizontal lines; the prices are under strong 3-week’s resistance.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_pound_is_approaching_resistance_1488

 

[riki143]

MORNING BRIEF FOR JUNE 8
06:14 08.06.2017

Currency ranges in Tokyo morning were subdued as traders take a time out ahead of an onslaught of major events today including a general snap election in the UK, an ECB monetary policy meeting, and testimony by James Comey, the former FBI director.

The US dollar index remains at its eight-months low as investors lost faith in Trump’s ability to push through his stimulus plans. There is an impeachment heaving in sight as James Comey in his written statement deposed to a fact that Donald Trump did ask him to drop an investigation of former national security adviser Michael Flynn as part of a probe into Russia’s interference in the US presidential elections. His oral testimony may strengthen an impeachment case build on obstruction of justice, but first, prosecutors should prove that incumbent US President Donald Trump acted with corrupt intent.

EUR/USD is trading range bound near 1.2560 before the ECB meeting and Mario Draghi’s press conference scheduled for 2:45 and 3:30 pm (MT time) respectively. ECB’s policymakers are up to announce a “no change” to their monetary policy settings and probably to upgrade their economic assessment and policy guidance with regards to Eurozone in lights of strengthening of its economic fundamentals. The inflation forecast would be cut to 1,5% for this year from 1.7% as the lower prices one energy source might be taken into account. A “no change” decision without any hints of bank’s intention to remove the reference to lower rates, or change its extremely dovish tone to an at least hawkish one will likely weigh on the EUR.

Another threat event of today is a snap election in the UK. GBP holds firm above 1.2950 due to incoming polls indicating that Tories are on course to win the election with a decent majority. Yet the traders remain concerned ahead of the election outcome as Conservative party’ s lead over its major rival Labour party has been narrowing throughout the campaign. Theresa May called the snap election in April seeking to strengthen her position in the talks with EU officials over Brexit, but the internal Tory backlash over the failures of her campaign as well as horrific terrorist attacks made her position more vulnerable, more perilous than before. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2960. There is a slight upside bias. The pound may extend its gains towards 1.3000/1.3050 resistance levels. If Tories fail to gain a solid ground in the election, we will see the pair tumbling to the much lower levels – 1.2880, 1.2770. If they manage to win a solid majority, we will easily see a surge in the GBP.

The yen has strengthened against the USD in Tokyo morning despite disappointing final GDP that came from Japan. Investors raised their demand for this safe-haven currency ahead of the numerous risky events and on the increased Qatari activity and North Korea’s missile tests. USD/JPY is trading at 109.45. There is a room for the further weakness of the greenback. The quotes may move towards the supports at 109, 108.70.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_june_8__1490

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD: KIWI IS POISED TO FALL LOWER
06:39 08.06.2017

On the NZD/USD daily chart, a workout of the triangle with its lower border acting as a solid resistance allowed the quotes to approach 113% and 161.8% targets of the Crab and AB = CD patterns. A break of the convergence zone 0.6745-0.6785 may result in the continuation of the downward movement.


On the NZD/USD hourly chart, the target 113% should be fulfilled for the quotes to slide towards 38.2% and 50% levels of the CD wave. Rebound from the supports at 0.687 and 0.6885 can be used for opening short positions.



More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzd_usd:_kiwi_is_poised_to_fall_lower_1491

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: BEARS SHOWED THEIR WEAKNESS
06:42 08.06.2017

Recommendation: BUY 110,6 SL 110,05 TP1 112,1 TP2 113,8.

On the USD/JPY daily chart, the Bears' failure to move below support at 109.35 (78.6% of the last corrective wave) was a signal of their weakness. To launch a counterattack, the Bulls need to break the resistance at 110.5. Once it is broken, the risks for implementation of the target 88.6% of the Shark inverted pattern will increase substantially.



On the USD/JPY hourly chart, a further direction of the pair will be determined by the Bulls' attempt to return the quotes to the previous consolidation range of 110.35-111.9. If they succeed, the formation of the Shakeout-Fakeout pattern may lead to the continuation of the rally.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:___bears_showed_their_weakness_1492

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BULLISH "RECTANGLE"
08:00 08.06.2017

The price has been consolidating under resistance at 1.1287. The 34 Moving Average is acting as support, so the pair is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.1307 - 1.1325. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the closest support at 1.1249 - 1.1232.

There's a consolidation, which is taking place between the levels 1.1278 - 1.1204. Also, we've got a "Rectangle", so bulls are likely going to test the next resistance at 1.1287 - 1203 in the coming hours. However, if we have a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to test the 55 Moving Average

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bullish_"rectangle"_1495

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "FLAG" PUSHING PRICE HIGHER
08:05 08.06.2017

Bulls faced resistance at 1.2964, so the price is consolidating. Meanwhile, we've got a "Flag" pattern, the market is likely going to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.2988 - 1.2995. However, if we see a pullback from this area, there'll be an option to have another bearish price movement in the direction of the next support at 1.2964 - 1.2945.

We've got a "Flag", so bulls are likely going to reach the closest resistance at 1.2988 - 1.2995 during the day. However, if a pullback from these levels happens, bears will have a green light to reach support at 1.2964 - 1.2945.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_"flag"_pushing_price_higher_1496

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "TWEEZERS" PATTERN
11:45 08.06.2017

We've got a "Tweezers" pattern, which has been confirmed. So, bears are likely going to test the 34 Moving Average line, which could be a departure point for another bullish price movement

The 144 Moving Average has acted as support, but there's a bearish "Engulfing' at the local high. Considering confirmation of this pattern, the pair is likely going to test the 144 MA one more time.


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"tweezers"_pattern_1498

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: BULLISH "THREE METHODS"
11:48 08.06.2017

There's an "Inverted Hammer", which has confirmation. Also, we've got bullish "Three Methods", so the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance. If we see any bearish pattern on this level, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the last low.

We've got some bullish patterns such a "Morning Star" and a "Harami", which both have been confirmed. However, there's a bearish "Hanging Man", so we could have a local downward correction in the coming hours. Anyway, bulls are likely going to deliver a new local high afterwards.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_bullish_"three_methods"_1499

 

[riki143]

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE ECB MEETING AND PRESS CONFERENCE.
12:53 08.06.2017

The European Central Banks left its key interest rates. The Council decided to remain the rates at the present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchase.

The asset purchase program is left at 60 bln of euros per month. It will be run until the end of December 2017, or beyond, if necessary, until the ECB’s policymakers sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with their target.

Press Conference
Assets purchases are still need; they will be maintained until sustained inflation around the 2% level.
There is a stronger momentum in the euro area economic growth
Risks to the growth outlook is broadly balanced
If growth projections are distorted, the ECB is ready to increase its asset purchase program in size and duration
ECB growth outlook has been revised upwards.
HICP was volatility due to temporal increases in energy and services prices.
The inflation headline will remain at current level in the upcoming months, there is no convincing sign of pickup
The ECB policymakers expect only gradually rise in inflation figures
Inflation expectations are revised downwards, while the growth expectations – upwards.
The euro moved a little bit lower against the USD on the lowering of the inflation estimates by the ECB policymakers.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/highlights_of_the_ecb_meeting_and_press_conference._1501

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: NEW HIGH COMING SOON
15:41 08.06.2017

There's a developing diagonal triangle in wave (v) of [c], which is taking place on the four-hours chart. The main intraday target is 5/8 MM Level, which could act as resistance. If so, there'll be an opportunity to have a bearish price movement towards 3/8 MM Level.

It seems like we've got a zigzag in wave ii with a triangle in wave . Therefore, bulls are likely going to deliver wave iii, which means we could have a new local high in the coming hours. If +2/8 MM Level breaks, the Murray math indication will be updated.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_new_high_coming_soon_1505

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD REACHED BUY TARGET 1.1270
17:27 08.06.2017

EUR/USD reached buy target 1.1270
Next sell target - 1.1160
EUR/USD recently reversed down from the powerful, long-term resistance level 1.1270 (which reversed the pair sharply in November and May and which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The downward reversal from this resistance level stopped the earlier minor impulse wave (v) – which belongs to the C-wave from the middle of April. Considering the clear bearish divergence on the daily RSI indicator - EUR/USD is expected to fall to the next sell target at the next support level 1.1160. Strong resistance remains at 1.1270.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd_reached_buy_target_1.1270_1506

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD REACHED BUY TARGET 0.7200
17:28 08.06.2017

NZD/USD reached buy target 0.7200
Next buy target - 0.7250
NZD/USD continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the resistance level 0.7200 (which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the resistance level 0.71200 follows the earlier breakout of 61.8% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp downward impulse wave (C) from the start of February – which accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and (3). NZD/USD is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 0.7250 (target price for the termination of the active impulse (3)).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzd_usd_reached_buy_target_0.7200_1507

 

[riki143]

MORNING BRIEF FOR JUNE 9
05:55 09.06.2017

Seven weeks ago, prime minister Theresa May called the snap election seeking a stronger mandate in talks over leaving the European Union. Today, while writing this brief, I can hear the Rolling Stones singing in chorus to her “You can always get what you want”. It had been a catastrophic campaign for her with the Conservatives being on course to fall short of a solid majority. The exit polls pointed, and early official results pointed to a Hung Parliament, with the Conservative forming a government in coalition. This creates another layer of uncertainty ahead of the Brexit negotiations which are due in 10 days. Sterling fell off a cliff after the announcement of the election results, and now it looks truly vulnerable to further downside. GBP/USD is trading at around 1.2730 at the moment of writing. Ahead there are several supports at 1.2705, 1.2690, 1.2615.

The latest update of the UK election results from Bloomberg.com

With 646 out of 650 seats declared, the Conservatives had won 314 seats and therefore failed to reach the 326-mark for a solid parliamentary majority. Labour had won 261 seats.

As for the other risk event of our Super Thursday, they came without too much fanfare.

Former FBI direct James Comey didn’t provide a smoking gun in his testimony. He did contribute to the continuation of the cacophony surrounding the US President. He said that it’s not for him to decide whether his conversation with Trump was an effort to obstruct justice. Also, he confessed that the true reason for his dismissal was the way he conducted the Russia investigation. Donald Trump didn’t like it as it put some pressure on him. Now it is up to the lawyers and Congress to decide whether Comey’s testimony is sufficient for impeachment or not. The strength of the USD reverberated across the trading desk with almost all major currencies lower against the greenback. Perhaps, only the kiwi was an exception. It rose to 0.7222 overnight without a clear reason for such outperformance.

Aussie slipped a few points and slid from 0.7545 to 0.7525 in Tokyo morning. Australian housing finance data showed a reduction in investor lending. From China, we got CPI and PPI figures that came short of market expectations.

EUR/USD dropped below 1.1210 from yesterday’s high at 1.1268 after the ECB policymakers downgraded their headline inflation forecasts having said that underlying inflation has “yet to show convincing sign of pick-up.” They upgraded the risks on economic growth of the Eurozone countries to broadly balance from extremely negative one. In addition, they pledged to continue their asset purchase program until sustained inflation around 2% level.

USD/CAD ticked higher mainly on the pronounced strength of the USD. Oil prices didn’t provide any support to Loonie. Brent oil futures are below $50 mark (at $47.80) as investors are still skeptical about the effect of the OPEC-led production cut deal.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_june_9_1513

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: AUSSIE UNDER MAIN RESISTANCE
06:20 09.06.2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7520; resistance – 0.7540.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 0.7510; SL — 0.7530; TP1 — 0.7470; TP2 — 0.7420.
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; but the prices are under the main daily resistance and local market is overbought.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd:_aussie_under_main_resistance_1514

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: DOLLAR CORRECTED TO KIJUN-SEN
06:21 09.06.2017

Technical levels: support – 109.90; resistance – 110.40.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 109.80; SL — 110.00; TP1 — 108.70; TP2 — 108.30.
Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with falling Kijun-sen; the prices are corrected to local resistance and may continue the downtrend.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_dollar_corrected_to_kijun_sen_1515

 

[riki143]

GOLD FAILED TO FIND HAPPINESS IN THE NORTH
06:22 09.06.2017

Recommendation: SELL $1270 SL $1285 TP $1240.

On the daily chart of gold, the bulls failed to hold the quotes above the important level of $1280. As a result, there is a risk of the correction towards the convergence zone $1250-1256 and then towards the intersection of the lower border of the upwards trading channel and upper border of the long-term downward trading channel.



On the hourly chart of gold, the Bump and Run-Reversal pattern has been realized. A break of the diagonal support of the initial stage followed by the rollback of the quotes towards $1270 may result in the restoration of the downtrend.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gold_failed_to_find_happiness_in_the_north__1516

 

[riki143]

EUR/JPY: BEARS REQUIRE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CORRECTION
06:25 09.06.2017

Recommendation: SELL 123,2 SL 123,75 TP 121.

On the EUR/JPY daily chart, target 113% of the inverted "Shark" pattern has been implemented. As a result, the risks for the development of the correction towards 38.2% and 50% levels of the CD wave increased. The rollback can be realized as part of the transformation process of the "Shark" pattern into 5-0. This can be used for opening long positions on the rebounds from the key support levels.



On the EUR/JPY hourly chart, a break of the diagonal support at 123.2 may result in the development of the correction towards targets at 78.6% and 88.6% levels in the "Shark" pattern.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_jpy:_bears_require_the_development_of_the_correction__1517

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "TRIPLE TOP" PUSHED PRICE LOWER
09:05 09.06.2017

We've got a "Triple Top", which has been confirmed, so the price is consolidating between the 34 & 55 Moving Averages. Therefore, bears are likely going to test the nearest support at 1.1160 - 1.1108 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this area, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.1267 - 1.1287.

The price was consolidating between the levels 1.1278 - 1.1204, but then bears reached the 89 Moving Average. Also, there's an option to have the price even lower, so we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.1161 - 1.1137 as an intraday target. If a pullback from these levels happens, bulls will have a chance to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.1204

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"triple_top"_pushed_price_lower_1521

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 12-16
09:05 09.06.2017

The pound slumped to 1.2635 after the Conservative lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the UK into political turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations. Before the election, the UK was set to start negotiations in June and leave the block by the end of March 2019, now this Brexit process will likely be delayed.

Next week will be really eventful for the GBP/USD. On Tuesday, traders will closely watch Britain’s inflation data coming at 11:30 am MT time. Further, we will receive average earning index, claimant count and an unemployment rate for the UK on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Bank of England is set to deliver its official rate. While taking the decision on its interest rate the BoE’s policymakers will likely take into consideration the data released earlier in the week. No matter what headlines we get on the inflation and labor market figures, the BoE will likely remain its monetary policy settings unchanged making reference to the heightened uncertainty over the Brexit process. The key event in the US is Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for June 14. The probability of the rate hike reached 95.8%. The minutes from May 2-3 meeting showed that Fed’s policymakers are ready to increase rates if they receive enough evidence confirming the economic growth and inflation pick-up. In a case of the rate hike, the USD will strengthen against the currently vulnerable GBP.

Technically, the pair managed to rebound from 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1985-1.3046 recent up-swing. Stochastic shows that GBP may still go lower in the short-term, a successful break of the 1.2700 handle may send quotes towards 200-day SMA support near 1.2575 or lower towards 50% Fibo level traced from this year low (1.1985).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_outlook_for_june_12_16__1522

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: PLUNGED LIKE A STONE
09:08 09.06.2017

The last upward "Wedge" has been broken, so the pair plunged like a stone. Finally, bears meet with support at 1.2634, so we could have an upward correction towards the closest resistance at 1.2768, which could be a departure point for another rally towards another support at 1.2634.

Bears were stopped by support at 1.2634, so we've got a "Thorn" pattern. In this case, bulls are likely going to test resistance at 1.2768. Nevertheless, bears could push the price even lower afterwards in the direction of the next support at 1.2672 - 1.2581.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_plunged_like_a_stone_1523