Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

GBP/USD: OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 5-9
13:09 02.06.2017

Sterling was really volatile in the course of the past week as we approach the general election on 8 June. The recent polls indicated that Theresa May’s lead has narrowed. This made the pound to lose its ground in the beginning of the week. The UK economic fundamentals helped GBP to regain in strength as Thursday’s Manufacturing PMI indicated industry expansion, and Friday’s Construction PMI spiked to 17-month high in May. On Friday, YouGov election poll posted another soggy result for Theresa May’s party: it lacks of 13 seats of an overall majority. The pound tumbled below 1.2850.

Next week, ahead of the UK general election, GBP will continue experiencing some volatile moves. On the economic data front, receive services PMI will be released on Monday, Halifax house price index and Britain’s manufacturing production figures will be released on Wednesday and Friday accordingly. On June 8, the UK general elections will be held. On the same day, in the US, the former FBI director Comey will testify before the Senate intelligence committee on whether Donald Trump asked him to drop investigations into ties between US President’s former national security adviser, Michael T. Flynn, and Russian entities. Once this is confirmed, the US dollar will likely suffer.

At the present moment, the GBP/USD is neutral. An immediate support can be found at 1.2840. A break below 1.2800 will result in restoration of the downtrend. Then, the quotes may decline down to 1.2760. The key resistances are located at 1.2920, 1.3000.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_outlook_for_june_5_9__1394

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 5 - 9
13:39 02.06.2017

EUR/USD currency pair was trading in a horizontal band during the past week as investors await the European Central bank’s meeting on June 8. ECB policymakers are set to strike a cautious tone about future tightening of monetary policy because of doubt around inflation. Preliminary data released on Wednesday fell short of market expectations having posted 1.4% in May which is well below the bank’s 2% target. The ECB president Mario Draghi said on Tuesday that a massive monetary policy stimulus is still needed to fight with weak inflation figures. On Friday, EUR/USD regained its strength following a bit disappointing US labor market report. The nonfarm payrolls revised to 138K from expected 182K. Wage growth was mediocre, while the jobless rate fell a bit lower to 4.3%. in general, the report wasn’t so bad. It shouldn’t prevent Fed from raising rate at its June meeting.

Apart from the ECB meeting, we will receive the Eurozone countries’ PMIs and industrial production figures on Monday and Friday respectively. Political turmoil in the US seems to come back to life next week as the former FBI director Comey is scheduled to testify in an open and closed session on June 8 before the Senate intelligence committee which is currently investigating into possible collusion between Russian entities and Trump’s election campaign.

At the present moment, the pair is trading at 1.1265. The undertone for the single currency is still positive, but only a clear break of 1.3000 will indicate that EUR/USD has entered into bullish phase. The key supports are located at 1.1205, and at 1.1170.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_outlook_for_june_5___9_1395

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD REACHED BUY TARGET 0.7130
16:56 02.06.2017

NZD/USD reached buy target 0.7130
Next buy target - 0.7200
NZD/USD today broke sharply above the resistance level 0.7130, which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 0.7130 was preceded by the breakout of the 50% Fibonacci correction of the earlier intermediate impulse wave (C) from the start of February – which accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3). NZD/USD is expected to rise in the active impulse waves (3) and Ⓒ in the direction of the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7200.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzd_usd_reached_buy_target_0.7130_1397

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF REACHED SELL TARGET 0.9670
16:58 02.06.2017

USD/CHF reached sell target 0.9670
Next sell target - 0.9550
USD/CHF continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave (v) – which started earlier from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.8900, 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from the middle of May and the former support trendline of the recently broken daily down channel from March (acting as resistance now after it was broken).

Having recently broken below the support level 0.9670 (which was set as the sell target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair) - USD/CHF is expected to fall toward the next sell target at the support level 0.9550 (low of the previous ABC correction ④ from November of 2016).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_chf_reached_sell_target_0.9670_1398

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: AUSSIE TESTING CLOUD’S RESISTANCE AGAIN
05:14 05.06.2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7440; resistance – 0.7470.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 0.7420; SL — 0.7440; TP1 — 0.7370; TP2 — 0.7340.
Reason: narrow bearish Ichimoku Cloud, horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but rising Tenkan-sen; the prices are returned to the Cloud and breakout Senkou Span B.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd:_aussie_testing_cloud’s_resistance_again_1404

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: DOLLAR GOING TO NEW LOWS
05:16 05.06.2017

Technical levels: support – 110.15; resistance – 110.90.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 110.90; SL — 111.10; TP1 — 110.20; TP2 — 119.60.
Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen will make a new dead cross; the prices are bounced from Senkou Span A and made the new lows for last two weeks.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_dollar_going_to_new_lows_1405

 

[riki143]

MORNING BRIEF FOR JUNE 5
05:46 05.06.2017

The weekend terrorist attack in London was the main cause of price action in the early hours of the Asian session. The attacker rammed a van into pedestrians on London Bridge and stabbed passersby. The market reaction was subdued with just a small drop for GBP as dealers became more and more desensitized to the shocks knowing that whatever the effect they produce, the prices will eventually stabilize. Prime minister Theresa May Thursday’s general election will go ahead. Election polls are still narrowing significantly, with the recent print from Survation poll indicating May’s lead cut to one point over her Labour counterparts. But the poll results might be delusive; despite the growing support for Labour party in the big cities, the countryside people are still likely to vote for Conservatives.

GBP/USD dropped just slightly after another terrorist atrocity to 1.2850 from Friday’s high at 1.2920. From here, the pair will likely trade steadily within the range of 1.2800 – 1.3015.

The great move was noticed on the Brent oil futures chart. Prices surged after Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, and Bahrain cut their ties with Qatar, accusing the Gulf Arab state of supporting such Islamist fractions as the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic State, and al-Qaeda. Qatar is not only a large oil supplier, it is also a greatest Arab supplier of liquefied natural gas and seller of condensate. The Brent futures are currently trading at $50.67 from Friday’s low at $48.95.

The US dollar regained its strength on Monday. It is higher against the yen. It seems the USD managed to recover disappointing labor market report out of the US. USD/JPY is now near 111.10. The current outlook is neutral if bears break 110.00 support. On the upside, there is a solid resistance at 111.25. Today, traders should be focused on the US non-manufacturing PMI and factory orders.

EUR/USD was trading lower at 1.2225 from Friday’s high at 1.2580 in the Asian session. In the short-term. There is a strong resistance at 1.3000, but it will unlikely be hit this week as market anticipate a less dovish message from ECB which is due on Thursday.

AUD/USD ticked higher in Tokyo morning due to the better than expected company operating profits and upbeat Caixin services PMI released from China. AUD/USD is trading above 0.7455. It seems that it is caught in a broad 0.7380 – 0.7490 consolidation range. We don’t anticipate greater moves from Aussie since the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely stay on hold and deliver a neutral statement tomorrow.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_june_5__1408

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: AUSSIE HAD A SLIDE ON THE WOLFE WAVES
06:18 05.06.2017

Recommendation: BUY 0,744 SL 0,7385 TP 0,755.

On the AUD/USD daily chart, the Bears failed to break an important support at 0.738; it was a signal of their weakness. Quotes left the medium-term downward trading channel and returned to the short-term ascending one. As a result, the risks for the realization of the Gartley pattern have increased. The target 78.6% of the Gartley pattern is located near the 0.755 mark.




On the AUD/USD hourly chart, the Wolfe Waves pattern has been formed. Its targets can be found above the 0.75 mark. You may use rebounds from important supports at 0.744 and 0.7422 as new entry points for opening long positions.


More:
=https://fbs.com/analytics/articles...d:_aussie_had_a_slide_on_the_wolfe_waves_1410

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: BEARS ARE PREPARING FOR THE ATTACK
06:19 05.06.2017

On the USD/CAD daily chart, the realization of the Wolfe Waves pattern continues. The next move would be the return of quotes within the borders of the downward trading channel. For this to happen, the Bears need to break the support at 1.3435.



On the USD/CAD hourly chart, the breakout of the diagonal support in the form of the lower border of the upward trading channel will be a signal for the Bears' attack. There is a chance for quotes reaching the convergence zone at 1.344 - 1.3455. Within these levels, there is a target 88.6% of the Shark pattern. If support at 1.344 is broken, there will be a slide towards lower levels.





More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/..._cad:_bears_are_preparing_for_the_attack_1411

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "PENNANT" PUSHING PRICE HIGHER
09:02 05.06.2017

The price faced resistance at 1.1287 - 1.1307, so the market is consolidating. Therefore, bulls are likely going to test the next resistance at 1.1325 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards support at 1.1267 - 1.1249.

There's a "Pennant" pattern, so bulls are likely going to test the closest resistance at 1.1287 - 1.1307 in the coming hours. However, if a pullback from this area happens, bears will have a chance to test the next support at 1.1278 - 1.1267.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"pennant"_pushing_price_higher_1414

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: BULLISH "TRIANGLE"
09:06 05.06.2017

The price is consolidating between resistance at 1.2913 and the 34 Moving Average. In this case, the pair is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.2913 - 1.2945, which could be a departure point for another decline in the direction of the closest support at 1.2887 - 1.2865.

We've got a bullish "Triangle", so we should keep an eye on the next resistance at 1.2935 - 1.2952 as an intraday target. Nevertheless, if a pullback from this area arrives afterwards, we could have a decline towards the 34 Moving Average.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_bullish_"triangle"_1415

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "WINDOW" ACTED AS RESISTANCE
12:57 05.06.2017

The price reached the upper "Window", which acted as resistance, so we've got a bearish "Tweezers" pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support level in the short term. However, if any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement.

We've got a bullish "Hammer", but this pattern hasn't been confirmed yet. In this case, we could have a local upward correction, but bears are likely going to deliver a new local low later on.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"window"_acted_as_resistance_1418

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: BEARISH "TOWER"
13:00 05.06.2017

There's a bearish "Tower" on the 144 Moving Average. However, we've got a pullback from a quite strong support level, so the middle of the last black candle is likely going to act as resistance. If a pullback from this level happens, the lower "Window" is going to be the next bearish target.

We've got a bullish "High Wave", but the last bearish "Shooting Star" has been confirmed strongly, so the pair is likely going to test the closest support in the coming hours. Meanwhile, if we see a pullback from this level, there'll be a green light for another bullish rally.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_bearish_"tower"_1419

 

[riki143]

NZD/CHF REVERSED FROM SUPPORT ZONE
17:15 05.06.2017

NZD/CHF reversed from support zone

Next buy target - 0.7000

NZD/CHF continues to rise after the earlier upward reversal from the support zone lying between the powerful long-term support level 0.6750 (former major resistance level which has been reversing the price at the start of 2016), lower weekly Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp weekly upward impulse from August of 2015. The upward reversal from the aforementioned support zone created the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line. NZD/CHF is expected to rise toward the next buy target at the round resistance level 0.7000.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzd_chf_reversed_from_support_zone_1424

 

[riki143]

AUD/JPY REVERSED FROM SUPPORT ZONE
17:17 05.06.2017

AUD/JPY reversed from support zone

Next buy target - 84.00

AUD/JPY today reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 82.00 (which reversed with the daily Hammer the pervious intermediate ABC correction (2) in May), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the pervious sharp upward impulse from last November. Considering the oversold reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - AUD/JPY is expected to rise in the active impulse waves 3 and (3) toward the next buy target at the next resistance level 84.00 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1 in May).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_jpy_reversed_from_support_zone_1425

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: EURO STAYED ABOVE TENKAN-SEN
05:10 06.06.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.1250; resistance – 1.1360.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.1250/60; SL — 1.1230; TP1 — 1.1340; TP2 – 1.1360.
Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but Senkou Span A is horizontal; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, horizontal Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the market is overbought, but prices are supported by Tenkan-sen.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_euro_stayed_above_tenkan_sen_1431

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: POUND BROKE SSB’S RESISTANCE
05:11 06.06.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2900; resistance – 1.2980.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.2920; SL — 1.2900; TP1 — 1.2980; TP2 — 1.3050.
Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud and horizontal Senkou Span B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen under the Cloud; the prices broke the Cloud’s resistance and entered into the positive area.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_pound_broke_ssb’s_resistance_1432

 

[riki143]

MORNING BRIEF FOR JUNE 6: IT IS ALL ABOUT THURSDAY
05:47 06.06.2017

Markets today are exceptionally quiet before the great Thursday with ECB meeting, UK general election, and Comey’s testimony all scheduled for the same day.

The yen strengthened to 109.86 against the USD in Tokyo reaching its highest level since April 25. USD/JPY may extend its downfall to 108.85 in the short-term unless USD manages to reclaim its positions.

The US dollar index which tracks the USD against a basket of its trade-weighted peers hit its seven-month low ahead James Comey testimony before Congress scheduled on Thursday.

The euro pared its yesterday’s losses and rose above 1.1265 ahead of the ECB meeting which is due on Thursday. A Bloomberg survey showed 90% analysts anticipate the ECB to upgrade its risks around the Eurozone recovery to balanced. The main focus will be on whether the central bank removes its easing bias on interest rates. If it is the case, we will see the EUR posting new gains against USD. The technical outlook for EUR/USD is still positive. To reaffirm our expectations, the pair should break a solid resistance at 1.1300. Otherwise, it may slide lower towards the support at 1.1210.

Australian dollar registered new highs in Tokyo morning following the RBA rate announcement. The central bank left its rates and policy unchanged saying that current monetary policy settings is consistent with growth and inflation targets. It also noted that an appreciating A$ would complicate economic rebalancing. The undertone for AUD/USD is still positive. Aussie may extend its recent rebound started last week at least to 0.7520. From here, a sustained move upside is not expected. The AUD/USD may rollback towards the support at 0.7425.

GBP recovered from its recent drop and rose to 1.2925 after a Guardian/ICM poll showed Tories have an eleven-point lead over Labour. The general election is scheduled for Thursday. We would cautious to change our neutral outlook at this stage before the Thursday’s ground-shaking event. Now, GBP/USD is trading range bound within the 1.2765 – 1.2950 levels.

USD/CAD dropped below 1.3460 overnight mainly on surging oil prices. The latter ones were trading a little bit higher in Monday’s session being driven by the political clash in the Gulf. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE and Bahrain cut their ties with Qatar with the aim to punish the nation for its links with Islamist groups. In Tokyo morning, traders downplayed their concerns that Qatar’s isolation might hamper its oil supply. So, the Brent and WTI oil futures suffered significant losses. Brent crude declined to $49.23, WTI – to $47.15 from yesterday’s high at $48.42.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_june_6:_it_is_all_about_thursday_1436

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BULLS STRENGTHEN THEIR GRIP
06:22 06.06.2017

On the EUR/USD daily chart, the quotes are moving towards the resistance at 1.1345 (78.6% of the last downward wave). Until the euro breaks the support at 1.117 the pair will be under the Bulls' control. For the development of the correction, the quotes should fall below 1.113.



On the EUR/USD hourly chart, a break of the lower border of the upward trading channel and the combination of the "Three Indian" and 1-2-3 patterns will create prerequisites for a rollback. The target of the corrective movement is the convergence zone of 1.121-1.1215 (target in the Gartley pattern + psychologically important support).


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...les/eur_usd:_bulls_strengthen_their_grip_1437

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF: BULLS ARE GRASPING AT STRAW
06:23 06.06.2017

Recommendations:

SELL 0,962 SL 0,9675 TP1 0,952 TP2 0,9535,

BUY 0,9665 SL 0,961 TP1 0,9745 TP2 0,978.

On the USD/CHF daily chart, there is an acceleration of the downtrend. If the Bears manage to keep the quotes below the support at 0.9635 ($88.6 from the last ascending near-term wave), the risks for the continuation of the rally towards 0.9435 will increase.



On the USD/CHF hourly chart, activation of the inverted Crab pattern in the case of the breakout of the resistance at 0.9665 might lead to the implementation of the Wolfe Wave pattern. In contrast, a break of the support at 0.962 will send quotes lower.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_chf:_bulls_are_grasping_at_straw_1438