Risk sentiment initially suffered on Monday because of decline in oil prices and an earthquake in Ecuador. However, oil was rather quick to recover the initial losses after the world’s leading oil producers failed on Sunday to reach an agreement on production freeze in Doha. WTI oil closed the bearish gap and returned above $40. Brent tested $42.50 area on the upside. All in all, the market seems rather calm for now, but it fells like it still hasn't chosen longer-term direction. The US will release housing market data at 12:30 GMT.
Resistance for EUR/USD lies at 1.1330/45 – this is the important swing area. Next resistance will be at 1.1375. Don’t miss the release of German and the euro area’s ZEW economic sentiment index at 09:00 GMT. The forecasts are rather good. Support is at 1.1300 and 1.1260.
GBP/USD is volatile in 1.4130/1.4255 area. There’s trend line resistance in the 1.4300 area ahead of 1.4370 and 1.4460. Support is at 1.4165, 1.4130 and 1.4085.
USD/JPY closed the bearish gap and returned from below 108.00 to 108.80. Resistance is at 109.05 and then at 109.75/110.00 and 110.70. Only above 110.70 the bearish pressure will ease. Support is at 108.45 and 107.65. The decline below 107.60 will open the way for the bigger fall towards 106.50.
AUD/USD closed the gap and returned above 0.7700. Watch the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting minutes at 01:30 GMT. The RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will speak at 13:30 GMT. Resistance is at 0.7760/80. Support is at 0.7630.
EUR/USD: bullish correction in a range of "Pennant"
19 April 2016
Sergey Logachev
The price faced a support on the 89 Moving Average, which led to the current upward movement. There's a possible “Pennant” in progress, so the market is likely going to reach the upper side of this pattern. If a pullback appears, bears will have a chance to achieve a support at 1.1273 – 1.1242.
As we can see on the one-hour chart, the price has been rising in a range of the “Pennant” pattern, which includes three “Flags” inside. It’s likely that the pair is going to get a resistance at 1.1344 – 1.1371. If so, there’ll be an opportunity to see the market on a support at 1.1309 – 1.1284.
GBP/USD: bulls run smack into the bearish "Thorn"
19 April 2016
Sergey Logachev
The price has formed two “Thorns” in a row, which led to the current rise. Moreover, the downtrend line has been broken, so bulls are probably going to taste a resistance at 1.4426. Considering a possible pullback from this level, it’s likely to see the price on a support at 1.4282 – 1.4234 afterwards.
There’s a flat in a range of the current resistance zone. We’ve got a small “Flag”, so it’s likely to see the market higher. If the price gets a resistance at 1.4369 – 1.4405, a downward correction will be possible, so we should keep an eye on a support at 1.4240.
NZD/USD continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the resistance level 0.7000, which was set in our previous forecast as the buy target for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3, which reversed up recently from the support zone lying between the support level 0.6860 (former strong resistance which has been reversing the price from October) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from March.
NZD/USD is likely to rise further in the active impulse wave 3 (of the intermediate impulse (C) of the primary wave Ⓒ) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7050 (forecast price for the completion of wave 3).
NZD/JPY continues to rise inside the minor ABC correction 2 – which earlier broke through the resistance level 76.200, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 76.20 is likely to accelerate the active (c)-wave – which started earlier, when the price reversed up from the support level 74.60, which is the upper boundary of the strong support zone which has been reversing the pair from January.
NZD/JPY is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 78.00, which reversed earlier waves A and (2), as can be seen below.
EUR/USD: "harami" is the only one hope for bears
19 April 2016
Galina Svetlova
The 89 Moving Average and the lower “Window” have acted as a support, so we’ve got a “Hammer” at the last low. Bulls formed two “Three Methods” patterns on the way, which points to a possibility that the current upward correction is probably going to achieve higher levels. At the same time, a local downward correction is a possible during the day. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a correction in a range of the huge black candle. We’ve got a “High Wave” at the last low, which has been confirmed. Therefore, it’s likely that the current rise will go on.
There's a bullish trend above the last “Window”. The price has found a lodgement above the 89 Moving Average, but we've got a “Harami” at the last high. So, a local downward movement becomes possible. Anyway, it’ll likely be just a correction, so bulls are still in the game.
USD/JPY: yesterday's "Window" becomes a support
19 April 2016
Galina Svetlova
The previously formed a “Morning Doji Star” and a “Three White Soldiers” have been confirmed, so yesterday’s “Window” was closed by the last white candles. We haven’t got any reversal patterns so far. It means that bulls are likely going to continue their rally, but a door for a possible local correction is a still open. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s an upward correction in progress, so today’s candle is probably going to be a white one.
Yesterday’s “Window” has been closed by the bullish candles, which brought a “Three Methods” afterwards. Therefore, this pattern is likely going to act as a support. If so, the price will have a chance to deliver a new high soon.
Despite the evident failure of the Doha talks, market sentiment remains rather upbeat: we’ve seen the risky currencies strengthen significantly over the recent days.
EUR/USD: The market’s attention will be focused on the European Central Bank’s decision (11:45 GMT, no changes in policy are expected) and the press conference of the ECB President Mario Draghi (12:30 GMT). European economic figures were brighter since the last meeting, but the regulator will likely emphasize that monetary policy will remain accommodative. The euro may test levels around 1.1300/1.1270 ahead of the event. Decline below 1.1240 will open the way down to 1.1140. Resistance is at 1.1375, 1.1400 and 1.1460.
GBP/USD: British labor market data came out lower than expected. Growth of average hourly earnings slowed from 2.1% to 1.8%. It means lower wage inflation and lower chance that the Bank of England will increase interest rates anytime soon. BoE’s member McCafferty made dovish comments – this is negative for the pound. On Thursday the UK will release retail sales data at 08:30 GMT. The indicator’s decline is expected to slow down, though consensus shows that there still will be a negative reading. The latest Brexit poll showed that more people will vote for Britain to remain in the European Union. GBP/USD has reached resistance line connecting February and March highs. Resistance is at 1.4470/1.4500. Support is at 1.4340 and pound looks vulnerable for correction to 1.4260 and 1.4115.
USD/JPY: US dollar made a higher low on and may try to correct up to resistance at 109.75, 110.00 and 110.75. Below support at 108.70 the pair should slide towards 108.00. Watch Philladelphia Fed manufacturing index at 12:30 GMT on Thursday.
AUD/USD: The pair is technically overbought and has potential for correction down. Decline below 0.7800 will open the way down to 0.7750 and 0.7700. Lower levels of oil will help the bears. Above 0.7800 the focus will be on 0.7850, though we are cautious about going long at this point without a sizeable correction down first.
EUR/USD: bears took a cue from the "Double Top"
21 April 2016
Sergey Logachev
We've got a “Double Top”, which has been confirmed, so the price reached a support at 1.1284. The market is likely going to achieve the next support at 1.1259 – 1.1233. If a pullback from this area happens, an upward correction will be possible.
The pair has been falling down since a “Double Top” arrived at the last high. The price faced a support at 1.1284, which stopped bears for a while. At the same time, the market is probably going to decline towards a support at 1.1259 – 1.1244 in the short term.
GBP/USD: price reached the "Thorn" once again
21 April 2016
Sergey Logachev
The price has formed a “Double Top” under the nearest resistance at 1.4426. Considering a confirmation of this pattern, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.4282. If so, a rise becomes possible towards a resistance area at 1.4305 – 1.4343.
We’ve got a “Triple Top”, which led to the current decline. The 34 Moving Average acted as a support, so bears currently have time to rest. Anyway, the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.4283. In case of a pullback from this level, bulls will have a chance to achieve a resistance at 1.4307 – 1.4343.
EUR/AUD has been falling in the last few trading sessions - following the earlier breakout of the support levels 1.4600 (which is the 1st of the two sell targets set in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the support level 1.4600 accelerated the active minor impulse wave C – which today broke the next support level 1.4470 (2nd sell target set previous for this currency pair).
If the pair closes this week below the support level 1.4470 - EUR/AUD can then fall to the next sell target at the round support level 1.4400 (former strong support level from December, and the forecast price calculated for the completion of the active wave C).
AUD/CHF recently broke above the strong resistance level 0.7540 (which reversed earlier waves (A) and 1 and which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of this resistance level is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3 – which recently broke the daily down channel from March and which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave from the middle of February. Strong support now stands at the support level 0.7540.
With the accelerating daily Momentum - AUD/CHF can be expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7700. Bus stop-loss can be placed below the recently broken price level 0.7540.
Nikkei 225 continues to rise – following the earlier breakout of the pivotal resistance level 17170.00 (which earlier reversed previous waves 3, (A) and B, as can be seen from the daily Nikkei 225 chart below). The breakout of this resistance level is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave from the start of Aril.
Nikkei 225 is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 17800.00 (which stopped the earlier minor correction 4 in January and which is the forecast price for the termination of the active impulse wave 3).
USD/JPY continues consolidation
21 April 2016
Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst
Yesterday USD/JPY managed to consolidate its position inside of the four-hour Ichimoku cloud. Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen lines and the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud simultaneously has played the role of the support. The bulls inspired by it have updated their two-week maxima to 109.90, having rushed to Senkou Span B. Thus, the short-term trend is determined now by a Golden Cross, and we do not exclude the possibility of testing of the cloud upper boundary levels.
Technical levels: support – 109.50; resistance – 110.60/65.
EUR/USD: correction from the "V-Bottom"
25 April 2016
Sergey Logachev
The pair was moving down on Friday, so we've got a support at 1.1233 and a «V-Bottom» pattern. It's likely to see a local upward correction. At the same time, bears have enough power to get a support at 1.1195 – 1.1166. If we a pullback from this zone arrives, it'll be a chance to see the price on a resistance at 1.1217 – 1.1233.
We've got a «V-Top» pattern, which led to the current decline. Finally, the pair found a support at 1.1233, so there's an upward correction in progress. The market is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.1269 – 1.1284. If bulls be stopped somewhere in here, it'll be an opportunity for bears to achieve a support at 1.1217 – 1.1168.
GBP/USD: "Breakaway Gap" has been formed
25 April 2016
Sergey Logachev
The price has been rising since a «V-Bottom» pattern arrived at the local low. The pair faced a resistance at 1.4458, so the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.4347. If a pullback from this level arrives, it'll be a chance for bulls to deliver a new high.
We've got a «Breakaway Gap», which led to form a «V-Top» pattern at the last high. The price found a resistance at 1.4458, so there's an open door for a downward correction. Therefore, we should keep an eye on a support at 1.4368. In case of a possible pullback from this level, a resistance at 1.4495 will be probably achieved soon.
US dollar started the weak under pressure as traders don’t expect any hawkish statement from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. American new home sales data turned out worse than expected (511K vs. 521K). On Tuesday the US will release durable goods figures at 12:30 GMT: analysts expect improvement after poor figures of the previous month.
EUR/USD recovered to 1.1260. German Ifo business climate missed the forecast (106.6 vs. 107.1), though the data don’t change the fundamental picture for EUR/USD. Last week the ECB didn’t ease monetary policy, but underlined that its approach will remain accommodative. The euro’s failure to overcome levels in the 1.1400 area last week mean that the bulls don’t have enough strength to push the pair higher. Resistance at 1.1300 and 1.1350 should limit the upside. Support is at 1.1215 and 1.1150.
GBP/USD tested levels above 1.4500 on Monday. British pound broke above resistance line connecting February and March highs and the next targets on the upside may lie at 1.4635/70. Support is at 1.4440 and 1.4400. The pair rose as US President Barack Obama spoke in favor of the UK remaining within the European Union.
USD/JPY opened with a gap up at 111.87, but then tested levels below 111.00. Earlier the US dollar gained on the expectations that the Bank of Japan will start lending to banks at negative interest rate. However, traders still seriously doubt that any measures of Japanese central bank would be efficient. Below 110.85/75 the pair will slide to 110.30.
AUD/USD recovered a bit after 3 days of declines. Resistance is at 0.7730. A break higher will open the way up to 0.7760 and 0.7800. Support is at 0.7690 and 0.7650.
EUR/USD: bulls will use to advantage the "Flag"
26 April 2016
Sergey Logachev
The pair has found a support at 1.1233, which led to form a local “V-Bottom” pattern, so the price got a resistance by the 89 Moving Average afterwards. The market is likely going to deliver a new intraday high and then start a movement towards a support at 1.1195 – 1.1166. If bears be stopped somewhere in this area, there'll be bulls' turn to play, so we should keep an eye on one of the important resistances at 1.1217 – 1.1233.
The price has been rising since a “V-Bottom” was formed at the local low. A few hours later, the pair faced a resistance at the 34 Moving Average, which brought a possible “Flag” pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to achieve the 55 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, it'll be a chance to see a new bearish rally towards the last low.
GBP/USD: "Pennant" as a sign to a new high
26 April 2016
Sergey Logachev
The price has faced a resistance at 1.4513, so currently we've got a local flat under this level. It's likely to see even more bullish pressure that is why we should bearing in mind the next resistance at 1.4569, which is reinforced by the downtrend upper line. If buyers be stopped here, it’ll be an opportunity to have at least a local downward correction.
There’s a possible “Pennant” in progress under the nearest resistance at 1.4513. Therefore, the market is likely going to deliver a new high soon. The main target is a resistance at 1.4534 – 1.4569, which is strong enough to stop bullish feast of life.
