Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

USD/CAD Daily Analytics
07:27 13.02.2018
Recommendations:

SELL 1.2490 SL 1.2545 TP1 1.239 TP2 1.229 TP3 1.2190

BUY 1.2665 SL 1.2610 TP1 1.2765 TP2 1.2895

On the daily chart, USD/CAD the inability of bulls to return the pair inside the previous consolidation range of 1.2670-1.2895 was the first signal of their weakness.

On H1, if USD/CAD breaks below support at 1.2560 and 1.2490, the risks of the pair getting to 88.6% of the junior “Shark” pattern. To continue rising and reach 88.6% target of the senior “Shark” pattern, the pair has to convincingly rise above resistance at 1.2665.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
12:23 13.02.2018

The 89 Moving Average has acted as support, so there's "Triple Bottom" pattern, which has been confirmed. The main intraday target is the next resistance at 1.2358 - 1.2384. If we have a pullback from this area, there'll be an opportunity to have another decline.

Bulls faced with resistance at 1.2334, so we should keep an eye on the 34 Moving Average as the next bearish target. This line could be a departure point for an upward price movement towards the nearest resistance at 1.2358 - 1.2384.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD Daily Analytics
12:26 13.02.2018

There's a "V-Bottom" pattern, so the price is consolidating. It's likely that the pair is going to reach the closest resistance at 1.3895 - 1.3944. If a pullback from these levels happens little later on, there'll be a moment to have a decline in the direction of the next support at 1.3741.

The price is consolidating near the 34 Moving Average. It seems like there's a developing "Flag" pattern. So, if a pullback from the nearest resistance at 1.3895 - 1.3944 happens, we could have a bearish price movement towards another support at 1.3795 - 1.3763.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
12:47 13.02.2018

The last "Harami" led to the current upward price movement, so there's no any reversal pattern so far. At the same time, there's an opportunity to have a bearish correction anytime soon.

All the Moving Averages have been broken, so the price is moving up. It's likely to have a local correction in the short term, but bulls are likely going to test the upper "Window" afterwards.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY Daily Analytics
12:51 13.02.2018

The nearest "Window", which acted as support, has been broken. Considering that there's no any reversal pattern, the price is likely going to continue declining.

The price has been declining since the last "Shooting Star" pattern arrived. If any bullish pattern forms in the coming hours, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward correction.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD Daily Analytics
06:59 14.02.2018
Technical levels: support – 1.3770; resistance – 1.3900.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 1.3880; SL — 1.3900; TP1 — 1.3770; TP2 — 1.3680.
Buy — 1.3920; SL — 1.3900; TP1 — 1.3990; TP2 — 1.4040.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices are in the negative area and had returned to SSB’s resistance.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD Daily Analytics
07:00 14.02.2018
Technical levels: support – 0.7750, 0.7815; resistance – 0.7880

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 0.7870/80; SL — 0.7900; TP1 — 0.7815; TP2 — 0.7750.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the market returned to bottom border of the Cloud.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF Daily Analytics
07:25 14.02.2018
Recommendations:

BUY 0.9465 SL 0.941 TP 0.955 TP2 0.9655

SELL 0.926 SL 0.9315 TP1 0.916 TP2 0.906 TP3 0.9015

On the daily chart of USD/CHF, the inability of bulls to keep the pair above 0.9410 points at their weakness. Return to correction low at 0.9465 will allow us to talk about the “Head and Shoulders” pattern. To continue the decline the pair has to break below January low.

On H1, USD/CHF is forming “Spike and ledge” and “Bat”. To continue the decline, bears need to pull the dollar below support at 0.93 and 0.9280.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD Daily Analytics
07:33 14.02.2018
Recommendations:

SELL 1.415 SL 1.4205 TP1 1.405 TP2 1.3950

SELL 1.3795 SL 1.3850 TP1 1.3695 TP2 1.3560

On the daily chart, GBP/USD bulls managed to defend the important level of 1.3830 and want to consolidate in the 1.3800-1.4150 area. If the pair renews February low, the risks of it going to 88.6% target of the “Bat” pattern will increase.

On H1, GBP/USD bulls try to form “Wolfe waves”. If they manage to do it, the pound may rise to the upper border of the descending channel at $1.41-1.4150. The pullback to the downside will be a selling signal.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp-usd-pound-got-in-the-corner-6800

 

[riki143]

THE US DOLLAR WEAKNESS AHEAD OF CPI DATA
08:37 14.02.2018
Today we expect the CPI and Retail Sales data at 15:30 MT time. If we look at charts, the greenback is depreciating against all currencies.

Why is it happening with the US dollar and what should we expect from the inflation data?

Let’s look at some forecasts.

Nomura predicts the deceleration of the core inflation in January. They declare monthly core CPI at 0.2% compared to the December one of 0.3%. Such reduction will lead to the annual core CPI decrease by 0.1 percentage point from 1.8% in December to 1.7% in January. Talking about the headline CPI data, they expect an increase from 0.1% to 0.4% in monthly figures and the rise of the annual to 2.0%. Such growth is based on higher gasoline prices and firm growth of food prices.

RBC has almost the same forecast as Nomura about the core and headline CPI. Moreover, RBC does not anticipate any real momentum until the second quarter of 2018. They expect that negative effects from the last year will roll off the year calculation only by that time. The annual headline inflation will be able to come closer to 3% in the third quarter.

The forecast of Barclay does not differ from the previous ones a lot. They expect the monthly core level to be at 0.2% and the annual one at 1.6%. The monthly headline inflation will increase by 0.4%, the annual by 1.9%.

The average forecast of the main economic experts declares the slight decrease of the monthly data of the core CPI growth from 0.3% to 0.2%. The headline CPI is anticipated to rise by 0.2 percentage points (0.1% to 0.3%) m/m.

Let’s sum up.

The rise of inflation is important for the US dollar. If the CPI is higher, it is more likely that the Fed will raise interest rates. An increase of the interest rates always leads to the strengthening of a domestic currency, so the greenback will have chances to strengthen its positions.

But the data is mixed, we expect the fall of the core CPI growth and the rise of the headline CPI at the same time. However, we can say that the forecasts are not negative. The fall is just by 0.1 percentage points. The annual headline CPI forecast is still below 2%, but not too much lower.

So why the dollar is weakening a lot?

The reason can be hidden in the lack of beliefs in the strong dollar. The market is used to the weak greenback, that is why every negative data can cause its further fall. Another reason is the strengthening of the global equity markets after the great selloff. Furthermore, US 10-year yields are now down to lows on the day, as Treasuries are more bid on the day.

So the greenback cannot find a support in any way.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/the-us-dollar-weakness-ahead-of-cpi-data-6802

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
10:17 14.02.2018

The main trend is still bullish. Also, there's a "Triple Bottom" pattern, which has been confirmed. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.2405 - 1.2434 in the short term.

There's a confirmed "Double Top" pattern, so the market is likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average in the coming hours. If a pullback from this line happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-triple-bottom-pattern-6804

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD Daily analytics
10:19 14.02.2018

There's a bearish "Pennant", so the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest support at 1.3741. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this level happens afterwards, bulls will probably try to reach the next resistance at 1.3895 - 1.3944.

The market is consolidating between the Moving Averages. The main intraday target is the closest support at 1.3763 - 1.3741. This area could be a departure point for a bullish price movement in the direction of another resistance at 1.3895 - 1.3944.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp-usd-bearish-pennant-6805

 

[riki143]

DOES THE VALENTINE’S DAY REALLY AFFECT THE FOREX MARKET?
10:41 14.02.2018
The Valentine’s Day is one of the days during a year that brings the biggest amount of money to an economy.

An interesting fact is that for this holiday people buy presents not only for their lovers but for families and friends as well. That is why consumer spending increases a lot. This year US consumers are expected to contribute to the economy nearly $19.6 billion, even more than last year record of $18.6. It is an important indicator because consumer spending is the largest part of GDP, it contains nearly 70% of the output.

Valentine’s Day has an influence on markets as well. The five best-selling gifts are candy, greeting cards, evening out, flowers and jewelry. It means that these industries will be more volatile before and during the February 14. Prices and demand significantly increase in these markets. For example, Japanese chocolate industry gets more than half of its $5 billion in annual sales on Valentine’s Day. Countries, where these industries are more developed, will get the higher profit on the holiday. These profits will contribute to retail sales and consumer spending data for February.

At the same time, if we look at the dynamics of stock indexes during the Valentine day itself, the picture will not be as rosy. It turns out that since 1928 the S&P 500 has closed up on just 40% of Valentine’s Days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen on 14 February just 43% of the time. Maybe it’s a coincidence, but maybe traders just more eager to spend time with their loved ones than to buy stocks. Or maybe this time stocks will get luckier?

Making a conclusion, we can say that the Valentine’s Day has an impact on markets and Forex market as well. The huge money contribution has a positive influence on a domestic economy. Countries with more developed industries, that are popular on Valentine’s Day, have higher profit. This effect will have a medium-term impact on the market. However, stock markets depreciate on the day of love.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/does-the-valentine’s-day-really-affect-the-forex-market-6811

 

[riki143]

EUR/JPY Daily Analytics
06:51 15.02.2018
Recommendation:

BUY 133.40

SL 132.85

TP1 134.40 TP2 135.40

On the daily chart, EUR/JPY reached 88.6% target of a “Shark” pattern. As a result, risks of a pullback increased. A pin bar increases the risks of a correction. Its high forms resistance at 133.40. To continue the decline to 113% target of the “Shark” patterns, bears need to pull the euro to February low.

On H1, EUR/JPY formed two bars with lower bottom wicks. It means that bulls are ready to counterattack. They want to trigger a “Shark” pattern with a target of 88.6%.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY Daily analytics
07:00 15.02.2018
Recommendation:

SELL 107.40 SL 107.95 TP1 106.40 TP2 105.35 TP3 102.80

SELL 108.05 SL 108.60 TP1 107.00 TP2 106.4 TP3 105.35

On the daily chart, USD/JPY bears managed to lead the pair out of the long-term consolidation range of 107.35-115.35. As a result, it triggered AB=CD pattern with targets at 127.2% and 161.8%.

On the daily chart, bears are in total control of the pair. In such conditions, pullbacks should be used for selling. The nearest resistance levels are at 107.30-107.45, 107.90-108.05 and 108.40-108.50.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

CAN BITCOIN RETURN TO UPTREND?
10:03 15.02.2018
A lot has happened to Bitcoin since the start of 2018. The recent weeks haven’t been easy for the cryptocurrency: BTC/USD fell to $6,000 on February 6. Since then, some recovery took place. Yet, the highs of 2017 in the $20K area remain far away. Some people argue that Bitcoin will go “to the moon” (i.e. higher than we can imagine today), while others consider it a bubble and expect more declines. Who is right?

To begin with, Bitcoin’s selloff in January and February is not unusual. There were periods in 2012, 2013 and 2017 when the market fell by 30% and more during 1 or several days. The recent move simply looks more impressive because it was preceded by a spectacular advance.

Now some analysts say that after this healthy correction the market has become more mature and may attract more serious investors. JP Morgan said that cryptocurrencies may represent instruments to diversify portfolios from holding traditional stocks and bonds. Many new players may join the cryptocurrency market when the price makes pullbacks to the downside. In addition, there are so-called HODL investors – people who will hold Bitcoins no matter how low the price gets. Bitcoin futures have provided a way for Wall Street to trade this dynamic market.

Good things and bad things for Bitcoin
It’s clear that for a significant rebound in Bitcoin the market’s sentiment should improve. The majority of traders should believe that the negative factors affecting the price are only temporary.

We can say that the situation starts improving. The price remains influenced by regulatory activity in major trading markets and here there are some bright things.

South Korea, which has previously crashed BTC by considering a cryptocurrency ban, now says that it will focus on making cryptocurrency trading transparent and that it was never seriously planning to shut down crypto exchanges.

US regulators – SEC and CFTC – admitted the underlying value of cryptocurrencies. According to them, the basis for Bitcoin’s value is miners’ costs. The UK launched the not-for-profit and membership-driven organization to regulate cryptocurrency trading.

Big banks have indicated that they are interested in the cryptocurrency market. For example, Goldman Sachs is creating an interface for cryptocurrency trading. JP Morgan also considers integrating blockchain into its systems.

Yet, the environment for cryptocurrencies remains difficult. The problem is that, for now, it seems quite easy for big players and decision-makers to destabilize the market. The rapidly moving price attracts a lot of predators who practice different kinds of manipulations, for example, fake news. The infrastructure for trading is far from perfect. Hack attacks, thefts, and hidden mining happen quite often.

Bitcoin price forecasts
The main resistance level for BTC/USD is located at $12K. If it manages to rise above this level, the correction would be over and the price will get a chance to rise to $14-17K. The inability to break above $12,000 would be a longer period of sideways trading for cryptocurrencies.

Analysts at Bloomberg think that BCT should return down to $900 because it’s the average price level since the creation. This looks like a big decline given rather high demand, but given the extreme volatility of the market, this is far from impossible.

Yet, it looks more likely that Bitcoin is at the beginning rather than at an end. A lot of things have happened and there will be more: technological breakthroughs, changes in regulation and market sentiment. Bitcoin can actually face several more years of turbulence before the token stabilizes as a legitimate commodity.

There are a lot of predictions that BTC will rise to $20,000-$50,000 in 2018. Much depends on the success of the Lightning Network, a technological improvement that’s expected to unfold this year and make Bitcoin transactions faster and cheaper.

If we need to answer a question whether Bitcoin can resume uptrend, the answer is yes. To make sure that things go that way watch for news and important technical levels and remember that the one thing we can be 100% sure of is that there will be many more big swings on the way.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily analytics
13:10 15.02.2018

The main trend is still bullish, so the market is likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.2537 - 1.2569. If a pullback from this area happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the closest support at 1.2453 - 1.2434

Bulls faced with resistance at 1.2522, so the pair is likely going to test the closest support at 1.2474 - 1.2453. This area could be a departure point for another upward price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.2522 - 1.2537.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-pair-going-to-reach-next-resistance-6835

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD Daily analytics
13:15 15.02.2018

The last "Double Bottom" pattern led to the current upward price movement. The main intraday target is the next resistance at 1.4149. Meanwhile, if we see a pullback from this area, there'll be a moment to have a downward correction.

Bulls have broken the last "Pennant" pattern, so the price is rising. It's likely to have a local bearish correction in the coming hours, but the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.4066 - 1.4100 afterwards.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp-usd-double-bottom-pattern-6836

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily analytics
13:22 15.02.2018

The last bullish "Harami" and "Engulfing" patterns led to the current upward price movement. If any bearish pattern forms in the short term, there'll be a moment for a bearish correction.

The nearest "Window" acted as support, so there's a "Three Methods" pattern. In this case, the market is likely going to continue moving up in the coming hours.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-three-methods-pattern-6837

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY Daily analytics
13:30 15.02.2018

The last "Three Methods" pattern led to the current decline. There's no any reversal pattern so far, which means the pair is going to continue declining.

There's no any reversal pattern, but we could have a bullish correction. If the 34 Moving Average acts as resistance, there'll be an opportunity to have another bearish price movement.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd-jpy-no-any-reversal-pattern-6838