Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FBS, Dec 18, 2013.

  1. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

    6,446
    4
    59
    GBP/USD Daily Analytics
    05:46 06.02.2018
    Technical levels: support – 1.3900/20; resistance – 1.4100.

    Trade recommendations:

    Buy — 1.3900/20; SL — 1.3880; TP1 — 1.4050; TP2 — 1.4100.
    Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the narrow channel Tenkan-Kijun; the prices are falling down to Senkou Span B’s support.

    [​IMG]

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
     
  2. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

    6,446
    4
    59
    XAU/USD Daily analytics
    07:08 06.02.2018
    Recommendation:

    SELL $1328

    SL $1343

    TP $1306 TP2 $1272 TP3 $1244

    On the daily chart of XAU/USD, bulls managed to defend support at $1324-1328 an ounce. If bears succeed in another attempt to pulls the prices below this level, the risks of a pullback to $1306 and lower will increase. To continue rally towards 127.2% target of AB=CD, gold would need to rise above January high.

    [​IMG]

    On H1, a break of the upper border of an uptrend will increase the odds of the pair going to 88.6% target of the “Shark” pattern. A pullback, on the other hand, will create grounds for the formation of the “Head and Shoulders”.

    [​IMG]

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
     
  3. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

    6,446
    4
    59
    USD/CAD Daily Analytics
    07:30 06.02.2018
    Recommendation:

    BUY 1.2510

    SL 1.2455

    TP1 1.261 TP2 1.272 TP3 1.285

    On the daily chart, USD/CAD bulls managed to rise above the upper border of the uptrend channel. As a result, the odds of an inverted “Shark” pattern with target at 88.6% have substantially increased.

    [​IMG]

    On H1, the probability of USD/CAD pulling back to support levels at 1.2485-1.2510 and 1.2390-1.2410 increased after the pair reached 113% target of the junior “Shark” pattern. If USD/CAD renews February high, this will create grounds for going to 88.6% target of the senior “Shark” pattern.

    [​IMG]

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
     
  4. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

    6,446
    4
    59
    BITCOIN Daily Analytics
    08:14 06.02.2018
    The price of the world’s main cryptocurrency keeps falling. BTC/USD fell from the $11,600 area where it traded at the end of January to the vicinity of $6,000 on Tuesday, February 6.

    Bitcoin is in a firm downtrend. The double top formed on the chart in December and January, suggests that decline may stretch as low as to $4,300. Daily and weekly MACD indicators signal further downside. In addition, BTC/USD broke yesterday below the 200-day moving average for the first time in more than two years. This line will now act as resistance at $7,900. Bitcoin also went below the trend line connecting the lows of January 17 and February 2 (it’s located in about the same area as the 200-day MA). BTC/USD has to return at least above this area to give bulla a chance to reverse the satiation.

    [​IMG]

    It’s clear that the cryptocurrency market is in desperate need of new monetary inflows. Yet, for now the sentiment seems to be negative. Bitcoin market capitalization declined from $294 billion on January 7 to $139 billion on February 5.

    Why is Bitcoin falling?

    Bitcoin’s price is affected by negative news flow. Fears of regulatory prohibitions led to the decline in Asian trading volumes. According to local media, China will reportedly block anyone in the country from accessing websites that offer cryptocurrency trading services or initial coin offerings (ICOs).

    Bloomberg reported that the heads of CFTC and the SEC will ask the Congress to consider federal oversight for digital-currency trading platforms.

    Many major commercial banks announced that they would ban the use of their credit cards to buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. These banks include JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Citigroup in the United States and Lloyds bank in the United Kingdom.

    The market’s risk sentiment in general suffered this weak as world stocks experienced big selloffs.

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
     
  5. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

    6,446
    4
    59
    EUR/USD Daily analytics
    10:57 06.02.2018

    [​IMG]

    The trend is still bullish, but the price is consolidating. The main intraday target is the next resistance at 1.2456 - 1.2500. If a pullback from this area happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the nearest support at 1.2334 - 1.2294.

    [​IMG]

    The Moving Averages have acted as resistance, so there's a "V-Top" pattern. In this case, the pair is likely going to reach the closest support at 1.2384 - 1.2363 in the short term. Meanwhile, if we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to test the next resistance at 1.2482 - 1.2456.

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
     
  6. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

    6,446
    4
    59
    GBP/USD: "DOUBLE TOP" PATTERN
    10:59 06.02.2018

    [​IMG]

    There's a "Double Top" pattern, which has been confirmed. The main intraday target is the nearest resistance at 1.4082 - 1.4129. These levels could be a departure point for a decline towards the next support at 1.3895 - 1.3834.

    [​IMG]

    Bears faced with support at 1.3944, so the price is consolidating. In this case, bulls are likely going to test the 89 Moving Average in the coming hours. If we see a pullback from this line, there'll be a moment to have a decline towards the nearest support at 1.3944 - 1.3915.

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
     
  7. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

    6,446
    4
    59
    EUR/USD Daily Analytics
    11:15 06.02.2018
    [​IMG]

    The 34 Moving Average has acted as support, so there's a "Hammer" pattern, which has been confirmed. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance area in the short term.

    [​IMG]

    The 34 & 55 Moving Averages are acting as resistance. Also, there's a "Harami", but confirmation of this pattern isn't enough. So, we could have a local bearish correction and the following bullish price movement afterwards.

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
     
  8. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

    6,446
    4
    59
    USD/JPY Daily Analytics
    11:18 06.02.2018
    [​IMG]

    The lower "Window" has acted as support once again, so we've got a "High Wave" pattern. So, we're likely going to have an upward correction soon. If a pullback from the Moving Averages happens little later on, we could have another decline.

    [​IMG]

    There's a bearish "Engulfing", so the market is likely going to decline during the day. Nevertheless, bulls will probably try to test the Moving Averages afterwards.

    More:
     
  9. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

    6,446
    4
    59
    USD/JPY Daily Analytics
    11:18 06.02.2018
    [​IMG]

    The lower "Window" has acted as support once again, so we've got a "High Wave" pattern. So, we're likely going to have an upward correction soon. If a pullback from the Moving Averages happens little later on, we could have another decline.

    [​IMG]

    There's a bearish "Engulfing", so the market is likely going to decline during the day. Nevertheless, bulls will probably try to test the Moving Averages afterwards.

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
     
  10. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

    6,446
    4
    59
    NZD/CAD Daily Analytics
    14:34 06.02.2018
    NZD/CAD reversed from the support area
    Next buy target - 0.9200
    NZD/CAD recently reversed up from the support area lying between the key support level 0.9030 (former resistance level from December) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse 1 from the middle of November. NZD/CAD is expected to rise further toward the next buy target at the next resistance level 0.9200 (former strong support level from July and the top of the earlier impulse wave 1).

    [​IMG]

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
     
  11. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

    6,446
    4
    59
    AUD/NZD Daily Analytics
    14:37 06.02.2018
    AUD/NZD broke support zone
    Next sell target - 1.0700
    AUD/NZD recently broke through the support zone lying between the key support level 1.0860 (which has been steadily reversing the price from the end of September) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous intermediate impulse wave (C) from June. This price zone is acting as resistance area after it was broken. AUD/NZD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the next support level 1.0700.

    [​IMG]

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
     
  12. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

    6,446
    4
    59
    EUR/USD Daily Analytics
    06:42 07.02.2018

    The 55 Moving Average has acted as support, so there's a "Harami" pattern. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance area.

    [​IMG]

    We've got a bullish "Hammer", which has been formed on the 89 Moving Average. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the upper "Window".

    [​IMG]

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
     
  13. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

    6,446
    4
    59
    USD/JPY Daily Analytics
    06:49 07.02.2018
    The price reached the 34 MA, but there isn't any reversal pattern so far. Therefore, bulls are likely going to test the next upper "Window".

    [​IMG]

    There's a bullish "High Wave", which has been confirmed. In this case, the market is likely going to continue moving up in the short term.

    [​IMG]

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
     
  14. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

    6,446
    4
    59
    EUR/USD Daily Analytics
    06:54 07.02.2018
    The trend is still bullish, but the price is consolidating. Also, there's a "Double Top" pattern, which has been confirmed, so the pair tested the 55 Moving Average. The main intraday target is the nearest resistance at 1.2456. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the next support at 1.2334 - 1.2294.

    [​IMG]

    All the Moving Averages acted as resistance, so there's a "V-Top" pattern. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the closest support area at 1.2350 - 1.2334. Meanwhile, if we see a pullback from these levels, there'll be a moment to have another upward price movement.

    [​IMG]

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
     
  15. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

    6,446
    4
    59
    GBP/USD Daily Analytics
    07:05 07.02.2018
    There's a "V-Bottom" pattern, which has been formed on the 89 Moving Average. In this case, the price is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.4011 - 1.4082. This area could be a departure point for a decline in the direction of another support at 1.3834 - 1.3741.

    [​IMG]

    The last "V-Bottom" pattern led to a local bullish price movement. It's likely to have an intraday downward correction, but bulls are going to test the 89 Moving Average afterward.

    [​IMG]

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
     
  16. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

    6,446
    4
    59
    USD/CHF Daily Analytics
    07:30 07.02.2018
    Recommendations:

    BUY 0.9395 SL 0.934 TP1 0.948 TP2 0.96

    SELL 0.929 SL 0.9345 TP1 0.919 TP2 0.905

    On the daily chart, USD/CHF reached the interim target at 113% of the “Crab” pattern: bulls are trying to counterattack. To develop correction, they need to overcome resistance at 0.9410 and 0.9485-0.9505.

    [​IMG]

    On H1, a break of the upper border of the 0.929-0.9395 consolidation range will increase the odds of its getting to 88.6% of the inverted “Shark” pattern. On the other hand, a decline below the support at 0.9290 will lead to the resumption of the downtrend.

    [​IMG]

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
     
  17. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

    6,446
    4
    59
    GBP/USD Daily Analytics
    08:26 07.02.2018
    Recommendation:

    BUY 1.4005

    SL 1.3950

    TP1 1.4105 TP2 1.425 TP3 1.46

    On the daily chart, GBP/USD bull managed to defend support at 1.3830-1.3835. As a result, the pair formed a pinbar. A successful test of its high will allow the pound to count on the uptrend’s resumption.

    [​IMG]

    On H1, GBP/USD keeps forming 1-2-3 and “Spike with reversal and acceleration”. To break the uptrend, bears need to pull the pair out of the trading channel and reach 88.6% target of the “Bat”. The odds of this scenario are not high.

    [​IMG]

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
     
  18. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

    6,446
    4
    59
    WILL BITCOIN STOP FALLING?
    13:40 07.02.2018
    On Tuesday, Bitcoin traded below $6000, the lowest price since November 2017, however, soon it changed the direction and increased in 23% in a day. It seems like it is not going to stop plunging.

    What caused such fall? Will it stop?

    Analysts give several reasons for such dramatic drop of the cryptocurrency.

    Experts see the main reason for speculations on the Bitcoin futures market. After Bitcoin futures trading began on CBOE exchange in Chicago, the price of Bitcoin increased immediately. The price was rising until investors did not stop purchasing futures. When cryptoinvestors saw the slowdown in Bitcoin’s price, they started to reduce their positions, it led to the cut of the market capitalization.

    Also, experts suppose that the opportunity to play in the fall of cryptocurrency led to a huge number of sellers on the market and collapse in prices.

    Volatility is the next factor. Cryptocurrencies are naturally volatile. However, additional attention from the US and Asian regulators makes them even more so. For example, the most recent leg down happened because of the news from Bloomberg. The agency reported that two US controlling companies are going to ask the Congress to consider federal supervision for digital-currency trading platforms.

    [​IMG]

    Nowadays, more and more countries talk about tightening policy, trying to restrict cryptocurrency activity. For example, China has already banned ICOs and domestic exchange, soon the country is going to block users from accessing websites with cryptocurrency trading services or ICOs.

    Huge hacks harmed reliability of Bitcoin as well. Cryptocurrency exchange Coincheck, one of Japan’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, lost about $500 million worth of digital coins in January.

    Looking at reasons above, we can say that the fall of Bitcoin was caused by speculations around it. The reliability of the cryptocurrency is damaged on purpose, that is why the Bitcoin is falling.

    So what about the future of Bitcoin?

    As usual, there are two opposite views. Can you guess which?

    There is an unusual theory that well-known cryptocurrencies will be replaced by national cryptocurrencies. The founder of Universa Blockchain Alexandr Borodich said in Davos that governments are highly interested in launching their own cryptocurrencies. They will be secured by commodities.

    It is a possible scenario because as we can see now, governments are trying to control cryptocurrency market and mining more and more. New restrictions crash the market and it is supposed to be done on purpose.

    However, despite doubts about the future of Bitcoin, most experts are sure that it will exist and will be widely used.

    First of all, blockchain will be used worldwide in the near future. So Bitcoin will be used within it.

    Secondly, there are demand and supply still. People continue to buy Bitcoin, despite its fall. A conception of FOMO - fear of missing out - works here. Mostly, people regret that they did not invest in Bitcoin before, so they will do it no matter what.

    The third reason is that Bitcoin is supposed to have a good store value, said Ran Neu Ner, ONchain Capital founder. He supposes that Bitcoin has a future as the digital gold that is more convenient to use than real gold.

    All these factors are anticipated to support Bitcoin.

    So what about the price forecast?

    There is an interesting opinion that the price of Bitcoin will fix at $5000. The explanation is simple: $5000 is a cost of mining. This amount of money is enough for a miner to produce tokens and get profit. Later the price will rise because of the increase in the mining cost. When all tokens are produced, the price will depend on the role of Bitcoin in the blockchain.

    Someone is even over-optimistic about Bitcoin. For example, Mr. McAfee (the founder of the software company McAfee.Inc) said that he will eat his own man meat if one bitcoin isn’t priced at $1 million by 2020.

    However, if we look at the situation more rationally, it is more likely that Bitcoin will be at the level of $10000 – the half of its greatest price, that was increased speculative.

    To sum up, it is quite difficult to predict the future of Bitcoin now because it is highly volatile. As Bitcoin has declined with such an incredible speed, it will not be a surprise, if it starts rising fast in one week. We can see that nowadays cryptocurrency market is highly speculated. It seems like the speculative news is created with a purpose to crash Bitcoin. However, most of the experts forecast the positive future of Bitcoin.

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
     
  19. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

    6,446
    4
    59
    SUPER THURSDAY
    15:19 07.02.2018
    On Thursday, February 8, the Bank of England will release a huge amount of data. BOE inflation report, MPC official bank rate votes, monetary policy summary and official bank rate will be delivered tomorrow at 14:00 MT time.

    In the end of January Cable achieved its highest level since the Brexit vote. Sterling has jumped 4.5% this year against the US dollar. Such increase was supported by the optimism over Brexit talks and the UK prices growth.

    [​IMG]

    However, now we can see the decline of the pound because Brexit still causes many problems and analysts still think that it will hurt Britain. So what will the central bank do in such situation?

    Some predictions

    Despite the fact that Britain’s economy is recovering after the financial crisis, showing good figures, analysts suppose that the BOE will hold interest rates unchanged because figures are still not incredible compared to other strong economies and there are doubts about the Brexit.

    However, most of the experts forecast two interest rates hikes this year because of the recent upbeat speech of the BOE Governor Mr. Carney. He claimed that the wage growth is increasing and the focus of the central bank policy is returning to fight above-target inflation.

    So, for example, Fabrice Montagne, head UK economist at Barclays said that they consider upbeat talks this Thursday because of positive data of the UK economy, however, they see the next hike in November 2018.

    Bank of America Merrill Lynch sees the hike in May or August, but they do not expect any comments from the BOE now.

    Citi expects a hike in August 2018. They predict new forecasts with stronger growth and higher inflation rates, however, the Bank more likely will be careful because of the Brexit deal.

    The EY ITEM Club forecasts two hikes this year: from 0.5% to 0.75% in May and from 0.75% to 1% in November.

    Making a conclusion, we can say that the BOE is more likely will not change the interest rates this time, but experts predict soon hikes later this year. However, the situation will depend on a deal between the UK and the EU, that creates a volatility of the pound and affects the UK economic growth.

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
     
  20. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

    6,446
    4
    59
    USD/CHF Daily Analytics
    08:47 08.02.2018
    USD/CHF rising inside minor corrective wave (ii)
    Next buy target - 0.9500
    USD/CHF continues to rise inside the minor corrective wave (ii), which started earlier from the support zone lying between the key support level 0.9240 and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The active corrective wave (ii) belongs to the minor impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of December. USD/CHF is expected to rise further toward the next buy target at the next resistance level 0.9500 (target price for the completion of wave (ii)).

    [​IMG]

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
     

Share This Page