Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
GBP/USD: TWO "THORN" PATTERNS
07:00 24.05.2017

1495608999-bee2e14a7e48d27ca3a322c67bb3ae6f_1200x1200_q90.png


The price is consolidating along the 34 Moving Average. It's likely that the market is going to achieve the 55 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, there'll be an option to have an upward price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.3057 - 1.3090.

1495608998-10632b842ae214def0aef5f290a24b5d_1200x1200_q90.png


We've got two "Thorn" patterns, so the price is consolidating. The 89 Moving Average is acting as support, but bears are likely going to test support at 1.2945 - 1.2913 in the coming hours. Nevertheless, if we have a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to achieve resistance at 1.2988 - 1.3023

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:__two_"thorn"_patterns_1223
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: BEARISH IMPULSE ARRIVED
09:17 24.05.2017

1495617363-31cb5b0cef2bc81747539bbe657c9905_1200x1200_q90.png


We've got a pullback from 8/8 MM Level, so a double zigzag in wave [y] of 2 may have been formed. Therefore, we could have bearish wave (i) in the short term. In this case, we should keep an eye on 6/8 MM Level as an intraday target.

1495617363-b794e5aa0e49bb2561593d11236d7306_1200x1200_q90.png


There's a downward impulse in wave ii, so bulls are likely going to deliver a local correction. However, if we see a pullback from 8/8 MM level, there'll be an opportunity to have another bearish impulse in wave iii of (i).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bearish_impulse_arrived_1224
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: BEARISH PATTERNS
13:19 24.05.2017

1495631889-2e04436a515c0835c05aba69ac4e7d61_1200x1200_q90.png


We've got bearish patterns such a "Tower" and a "High Wave", which both have confirmation. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average in the short term.

1495631889-38adaa7931031e7b2162926ff7b020ba_1200x1200_q90.png


There's a "High Wave" pattern, which has formed on the 34 Moving Average. Considering confirmation of this pattern, we could have a local correction towards the nearest resistance, which could be a departure point for another decline.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bearish_patterns_1225
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
USD/JPY: BULLISH "HAMMER"
13:23 24.05.2017

1495631888-512436194318e6be10f9663357f74e1b_1200x1200_q90.png


We've got a bullish "Hammer", which has been confirmed. Also, there's a "Doji" on the 144 Moving Average, but this pattern remains unconfirmed. So, bears are likely going to test the nearest support level shortly.

1495631889-cbb2905dcb069a7c488f1dd5d7abaf30_1200x1200_q90.png


We've got bearish patterns such a "High Wave" and a "Harami", so we could have a correction in the direction of the lower "Window". If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_bullish_"hammer"_1226
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: BULLS LOOKS STRONG
04:23 25.05.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.1200; resistance – 1.1250, 1.1300.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.1210/00; SL — 1.1180; TP1 — 1.1250; TP2 – 1.1300.
Sell — 1.1310; SL — 1.1330; TP1 — 1.1120; TP2 – 1.1080.
Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, rising Kijun-sen; the prices are under daily resistance 1.1250-1.1300.

1495686189-5974574d0f06c411e972e24d898d2405_1200x1200_q90.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bulls_looks_strong_1234
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
GBP/USD: MARKET SUPPORTED BY CLOUD AGAIN
04:24 25.05.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2960; resistance – 1.3070.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.2980; SL — 1.2960; TP1 — 1.3070; TP2 — 1.3150.
Reason: narrow bullish Ichimoku Cloud; horizontal Senkou Span A, but rising Senkou Span B; an irregular dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen over the Cloud; the prices are supported by Cloud and may go higher.

1495686275-5838ef800660551113de2aff99712827_1200x1200_q90.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_market_supported_by_cloud_again_1235
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
MORNING BRIEF FOR MAY 25
05:53 25.05.2017

The US dollar dropped against many major currencies on less hawkish FOMC meeting minutes. Overall Fed’s policymakers seemed content to hike rate at the coming meeting in June if US economic information came in about in line with their expectations. The minutes also signaled that policymakers prefer a gradual reduction in their massive balance sheet. The Committee proposed the central bank set a cap on the amount of bonds that would be allowed to run off each month, initially determining it at a low level and then raising gradually every three months. Right after the FOMC minutes the 100-year US Treasury yield declined to 2.255% from Wednesday’s high at 2.295.

The euro rose higher to 1.1235 despite passive comments from ECB’s members which bring into question the recent long positioning. Solid performance in EZ economic activity and risk reduction after the French presidential election might force ECB to shift their language at the upcoming meeting in June. Yesterday ECB’s policymakers released their latest Financial Stability report along with the ECB President Draghi’s speech in which he downplayed the side effects from negative rates and claimed that there is no reason to deviate further from the indications he provided in his April introductory statement. The yesterday’s recovery from the 1.167 low is lacking in momentum, and the odds for extension towards 1.3000 are still not high. Most likely, the pair will be trading sideways within 1.1160 – 1.2670 levels.

Aussie came temporarily unhinged on the China’s credit rating downgrade as market participants use Aussie as a proxy for China risk. Then, it managed to recoup some of its losses amid broad USD weakening. In today’s Tokyo session, the pair slipped few points. Now, the AUD/USD currency pair is trading around 0.7500 mark. As long as 0.7430 is not touched we still anticipate a move higher towards 0.7560.

USD/JPY hardly moved on the session. It’s now at 111.65 and expected to trade sideways in the short-term. Kiwi rose to 0.7050 in the course of the Asian session. A further upsurge towards key resistance at 0.7090 is not ruled out.

USD/CAD sunk to 1.3390 level after the Bank of Canada was more upbeat about the economy than traders had expected. Brent oil futures were trading higher at $54.45 ahead of the start of the OPEC meeting in Vienna. Most likely OPEC producers will extend their agreement into the first quarter in attempt to drain persistent global supply. As we have OPEC meeting on the agenda, the oil prices might rise higher and send USD/CAD lower towards the support at 1.3380, or even lower towards 1.3350.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_may_25_1241
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
NZD/USD: KIWI IS GOING UPWARDS
06:19 25.05.2017

Recommendations:

hold long positions (BUY 0,695 SL 0,6895 TP 0,708),

BUY 0,6995 SL 0,694 TP1 0,712 TP2 0,734.

On the NZD/USD daily chart, the break of the diagonal resistance in the form of the upper border of the downward trading channel pushed the quotes higher. The bulls almost fulfilled the target 113% of the "Shark" junior pattern. Buyers are ready to set more ambitious goals and realize the senior shark Shark. Its target 88.6% can be found near the mark of 0.734.

Screenshot_2017_05_25_07_27_31.png


On the NZD/USD hourly chart, there is a continuation of the upward movement towards the target 224% in the AB = CD pattern. A test of the resistance at 0.7055 can lead to the implementation of this target.

Screenshot_2017_05_25_07_27_48.png


Recommendations:

hold long positions (BUY 0,695 SL 0,6895 TP 0,708),

BUY 0,6995 SL 0,694 TP1 0,712 TP2 0,734.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzd_usd:_kiwi_is_going_upwards_1243
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
GBP/USD: POUND IS WANDERING IN THE CHANNELS
06:25 25.05.2017

Recommendations:

BUY 1,3035 SL 1,298 TP1 1,31 TP2 1,3135,

SELL 1,293 SL 1,2985 TP 1,278.

On the GBP/USD daily chart, there is a consolidation within the upwards trend. A breakout of the diagonal support followed by activation of the "Shark" pattern can result in the development of the correction towards 1.278. The odds for expansion are not high, the quotes might exhaust their rally at around 1.31 (target 161.8% in AB = CD).

Screenshot_2017_05_25_07_28_04.png


On the GBP/USD hourly chart, there was a false breakout of the lower boundary of the triangle. Breakout of the support at 1.293 may result in a pullback. In contrast, a successful test of resistance at 1.3035 will create the prerequisites for the continuation of the rally.

Screenshot_2017_05_25_07_28_21.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_pound_is_wandering_in_the_channels_1246
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: BULLS GOING TO TEST NEXT RESISTANCE
08:02 25.05.2017

1495699272-efd421012bed8977f8c07cc5d0b10908_1200x1200_q90.png


We've got a "Triple Bottom" pattern, so the price is rising. Therefore, bulls are likely going to test the next resistance at 1.1287 - 1.1307 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a bearish correction towards support at 1.1204 - 1.1171.

1495699272-c1cd64db76d649e7d0d3ea9f18384199_1200x1200_q90.png


The price faced resistance at 1.1249, so there's a consolidation. In this case, the market is likely going to decline towards support at 1.1211 - 1.1204. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will have a chance to achieve resistance at 1.1287 - 1.1307.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bulls_going_to_test_next_resistance_1248
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
GBP/USD: "TRIANGLE" PUSHING PRICE HIGHER
08:04 25.05.2017

1495699272-7de876e60552ac48cbf765b2162b724d_1200x1200_q90.png


The price is consolidating between the 34 Moving Average and resistance at 1.3057. Also, there's a triangle, so the pair is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.3057 - 1.3090. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an option to have a decline in the direction of the closest support at 1.2964 - 1.2945.

1495699272-351d5d3b767323aa5ac64e9dfbb44954_1200x1200_q90.png


We've got a "Double Bottom", so the price has reached resistance at 1.2988. Also, there's a triangle, so bears are likely going to test the 89 Moving Average soon. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this line happens, bulls will probably try to test resistance at 1.3021 - 1.3028.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:__"triangle"_pushing_price_higher_1249
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
TRADING THE OPEC MEETING
08:22 25.05.2017

Today the OPEC members are set to discuss in Vienna whether to prolong a production cut agreement reached in November 2016. An extension of the accord could potentially spark a rally in oil prices. In the following article, we will explicate how the deal has been executed, what are its effects. In conclusion, we will present 4 trading scenarios for the outcome of today’s OPEC meeting.

Last autumn the cartel pledged to shave 1.2 million barrels per day off its output, cutting it from 33.7m to 32.5m barrels per day. The deal was forged due to a surprise agreement between Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran. Saudi were hit the most, they had to lower output by almost 500K per day, while Iraq agreed to reduce its oil production only by 200K. Iran was allowed to increase its production to restore its market share after the period of the US-led sanctions.

We must note OPEC demonstrated unprecedented discipline in the output cut deal execution. Among all the signing parties only Iraq, Angola and Algeria missed their targets slightly, while Saudi Arabia and UAE exceeded their commitments. The non-OPEC producers that supported the deal show were less disciplined with Russia missing its target and Kazakhstan, Malaysia actually boosting their production.

OPEC members' compliance with the output cut deal

1495700431-5c244a97a4e972606e4e039be26a31a7_1200x1200_q90.png


Overall, even the attempts to curb production kept oil prices above $50 for a quite long period of time. But some other factors have turned in a negative way for the OPEC striving to stem the global oil glut.

Here the factors that distorted the effect of the OPEC agreement
Following the oil prices increases, US oil industry increased its output at much higher volumes than it was expected. An ever-increasing number of drilling rigs in the first quarter of 2017 led to an even greater increase in oil production.
Libya and Nigeria were exempt from the OPEC’s deal and they increase their output contributing to the erosion of the effects of production cut agreement.
Demand for liquid fuel is softening in the key importers (China, India), and even in the US
The US oil inventories have recently declined, but the number of oil stockpiles is still high. The OPEC expected that 6-month deal would normalize inventories, now it is obvious that more cuts are needed to drain the US oil reserves.
OPEC trading scenarios
9-month extension of deeper cuts. The odds for the realization of the following scenario is quite high. This would result in a heavy lift of oil prices.
6-month extension. This is the most expected scenario until only recently. Global stockpiles are still at their record higher levels, and the extension of the deal through the end of this year wouldn’t be enough to elevate oil prices and reduce oil glut. With oil traders wanting deeper cuts, the extension for 6 months would be a disappointment and could send oil prices lower.
No extension. This would be the most disastrous outcome for the oil prices that may drop to their lowest level well below the $50.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/trading_the_opec_meeting_1250
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: SECOND PULLBACK FROM 8/8 MM LEVEL IN A ROW
11:02 25.05.2017

1495710086-92d48b2d6e6e77d4f64f1b2ad3ab3223_1200x1200_q90.png


We've got the second pullback from 8/8 MM Level in a row. So, wave [y] of 2 may have been finished. In this case, bears are likely going to deliver wave (i), which means we should keep an eye on 6/8 MM Level as an intraday target.

1495710086-55ade39ed3173a1e399293170ca3484f_1200x1200_q90.png


There's a bearish impulse, which could be wave i of (i). 8/8 MM Level has acted as resistance twice. Moreover, wave ii seems to be ended, so we're likely going to see a decline in wave iii of (i) in the direction of 5/8 MM Level.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_second_pullback_from_8_8_mm_level_in_a_row_1252
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: "HIGH WAVE" STOPPED BULLS
12:18 25.05.2017

1495714615-35d8d2734acd09a2460f019d036e5a3a_1200x1200_q90.png


There are bearish patterns such are a "Tower" and a "Shooting Star", which both have been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average in the short term. If we see a pullback from this line, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement.

1495714615-400cf1e173e9423aca819a2d71a20000_1200x1200_q90.png


We've got a bearish "High Wave" pattern, which has strong confirmation. In this case, the price is likely going to decline in the direction of the last low in the coming hours.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"high_wave"_stopped_bulls_1255
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
USD/JPY: BEARISH "SHOOTING STAR"
12:21 25.05.2017

1495714616-f6cda266ed86a519cdcde0f0d576753d_1200x1200_q90.png


The 55 Moving Average is acting as resistance, so we've got a "Doji" and an "Engulfing" at the local high. However, these patterns haven't been confirmed enough, so the pair is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average once again. If we see a pullback from this line, bears will have a chance to achieve the nearest support level.

1495714616-e2368cc0f6dcd84d27462d9060e7dc37_1200x1200_q90.png


There's a consolidation, which is taking place on the one-hour chart. The 144 Moving Average has acted as resistance, so we've got a "Shooting Star" pattern. Under these circumstances, we could keep in mind the lower "Window" as the next bearish target.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_bearish_"shooting_star"_1256
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
AUD/USD: BEARS BREAKDOWN CLOUD’S SUPPORT
04:53 26.05.2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7370, 0.7400/10; resistance – 0.7440.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 0.7440; SL — 0.7460; TP1 — 0.7370; TP2 — 0.7340.
Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are entered into the negative zone.

1495774370-42a68b4bfa2f0515dfbaa054e9dbae66_1200x1200_q90.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd:_bears_breakdown_cloud’s_support_1268
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
USD/JPY: TRADES CONTINUE IN CLOUDY AREA
04:54 26.05.2017

Technical levels: support – 111.50, 111.00; resistance – 112.20/30.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 111.50; SL — 112.30; TP1 — 112.20; TP2 — 113.20.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices keep staying in the cloudy area; strong support of horizontal Kijun-sen and Senkou Span A.

1495774471-3dcc4d3b0e9d38341d309e86e7227f36_1200x1200_q90.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_trades_continue_in_cloudy_area_1269
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
MORNING BRIEF FOR MAY 26
06:04 26.05.2017

Brent futures dropped to $51.00 from $54.65 overnight after OPEC and some non-OPEC producers agreed to extend output cuts until the end of the first quarter of 2018. Market participants expected longer and deeper cuts to curb a global oil glut. So, oil prices tumbled following the announcement. Prior they rose higher being driven by the talk around the extension of the supply cuts. This was the case of buying the rumor and selling the fact.

GBP slumped below 1.2880 from 1.3015 after a YouGov poll showed that the gap between the two major UK parties is narrowing as we approach the official date of elections – June 8 (the poll indicated that Labour Party is within 5 points of Theresa May’s Conservatives). Further on, we expect a move towards 1.2830 on the GBP/USD technical chart. A break of the following level may send prices lower towards 1.2775.

1495778623-4a47a0db6e60853dedfcfdf08a5ca249_1200x1200_q90.png


Aussie was trading lower at 0.7428 because of the strengthening USD and falling iron ore prices. AUD/USD will likely consolidate within the range of 0.7380- 0.7480 in the short-term.

The yen managed to find some strength today despite the strong USD. Japan’s headline inflation release in Tokyo morning was in line with expectations. Core figures hit its best level since April 2015. But Japanese core-core inflation is still subdued (it is at zero % level now). The BOJ pledged to keep its current accommodative policy until inflation figures hit 2%. USD/JPY is trading at 111.45 The yen has a scope of extension of its gains toward 110.20. On the upside, we see a strong resistance at 112.50 (near 100-day MA).

EUR/USD is trading lower in the Asian session at 1.2000 from yesterday’s high at 1.2505. The recent comments from ECB President Mario Draghi about bank’s commitment to full implementation of its QE program put pressure on the single currency. Investors were disappointed with ECB refusing to wind down its bond purchase program at previous meetings. Today’s focus will be on the US economic data –durable goods orders (expected to rise in April), Revised UoM Consumer sentiment and most importantly preliminary GDP for the first quarter of 2017.

USD/CAD spiked to 1.3495 overnight as OPEC members failed to commit to longer and deeper cuts. Brent oil futures is trading at 51.20 from yesterday’s high at $54.67 downgrading outlook for Loonie.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_may_26_1270
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
GOLD IS TRAPPED IN THE TRIANGLE
06:24 26.05.2017

Recommendations:

BUY $1262,5 SL $1252,5 TP $1315,

SELL $1248 SL $1258 TP1 $1233 TP2 $1224.

On the daily chart of gold, quotes are hovering near the upper border of the triangle. A break of the resistance and return of quotes to the upward trading channel can lead to the continuation of the rally towards $1315 per ounce (target 127.2% of the AB = CD pattern). In contrast, the return of the bullion to the long-term downward trading channel may result in the correction to the medium-term bullish trend.

Screenshot_2017_05_26_07_38_04.png


On the hourly chart of gold, there is a consolidation within the triangle. A break of the resistance at $1262.5 will create prerequisites for the continuation of the rally. A successful test of the support at $1248.3 is fraught with the rollback.

Screenshot_2017_05_26_07_38_21.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gold_is_trapped_in_the_triangle_1271
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
OIL: BULLS ARE PREPARING FOR THE ATTACK
06:26 26.05.2017

Recommendation: BUY 51.5 SL 50.5 TP1 52.8 TP2 53.9.

On the daily chart of Brent futures, "bulls" failed to overcome resistance at $54.42 per barrel. As a result, we got a rollback and formation of the short-term downward trading channel. There is a room for a decline towards $48 (the intersection of two trading channels + 61.8% of the last long-term "bullish" wave). At the same time, the odds for rebound from the $50-51.5 convergence area are quite high.

Screenshot_2017_05_26_07_37_31.png


On the hourly chart of Brent oil futures, the quotes reached the support area of $50.66-51.08. At the beginning of the second decade of May, here was an accumulation of speculative longs and formation of 113% target of the "Shark" pattern. This allows bulls to recoup their losses.

Screenshot_2017_05_26_07_37_47.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/oil:_bulls_are_preparing_for_the_attack_1272