Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: 8/8 MM LEVEL COULD SEND PRICE LOWER
11:38 22.05.2017

The price reached 8/8 MM Level, so wave (c) of [y] may have been ended, which means there's an opportunity to have bearish wave (i). In this case, we should keep in mind 6/8 MM Level as the next intraday target.

As you can see on the one-hour chart, wave v of (c) achieved 8/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for wave (i). Therefore, bears are likely going to test 6/8 MM Level in the coming hours.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_8_8_mm_level_could_send_price_lower_1179

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: MORNING STAR PUSHING PRICE HIGHER
13:31 22.05.2017

The price has been rising since the lower "Window" acted as support. Also, we don't have any reversal pattern so far, which mean the pair could test the upper "Window" soon. If we see any bearish pattern on this level, there'll be an opportunity to have a correction.

We've got a "Morning Star", which has been confirmed, so the price is moving up. At the same, there's a chance to have a local correction towards the nearest support level. Anyway, we are likely going to see the price even higher in the coming hours.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_morning_star_pushing_price_higher_1180

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: ""WINDOW" ACTING AS STRONG SUPPORT
13:37 22.05.2017

There's a consolidation, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. The 34 Moving Average is acting as resistance. Considering the last bearish "Tweezers", the price is likely going to test the closest support level in the short term.

The lower "Window" is acting as strong support, so the price is likely going to test this level once again. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to reach the 55 Moving Average afterwards.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_""window"_acting_as_strong_support_1181

 

[riki143]

MORNING BRIEF FOR MAY 23
06:15 23.05.2017

The British pound slumped after authorities said a blast at an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester could be a terror-related. A suspected terrorist attacked killed at least 19 people and wounded 50. It happened in the middle of an election campaign and ahead of the tough Brexit negotiations with the two parties embroiled in a wrangle over the size of compensation for the Britain’s divorce settlement. GBP/USD lost a few points on Tuesday having slipped to 1.2990. Today’s focus will be on the BOE Governor Mark Carney’s testimony on inflation and economic outlook before Parliament’s Treasury Committee as well as on the public-sector net borrowing.

EUR/USD hit a six-month high (1.2542) overnight after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the currency was made too weak by the European Central Bank’s loose monetary policy. The cheaper euro is partly to blame for Germany’s trade surplus. In Tokyo morning, the euro was trading near 1.2450. The bullish phase that started last week appears to a bit overextended. The euro will unlikely hit 1.3000 in the short-term future. So, while undertone of the pair is still positive, we would suggest adjusting some stop-losses to avoid unexpected dips. Tonight’s focus will be on German May Ifo Survey and second vintage of quarterly GDP. Eurozone’s PMIs are also out today.

The yen gained some points in the early hours of the Asian session probably on concerns over the explosion in the UK and political wrangling in Washington. USD/JPY retraced to 111.05 from yesterday’s high 111.60. Markets lost their confidence in the growth-generating capacity of the current US administration with Trump’s presidency engulfed in a crisis over his firing of FBI James Comey and the allegations he had some close ties with Russians in the course of his election campaign. With Donald Trump on his first overseas trip, the political crisis has calmed for now. But we expect the melodrama to pick after once the US president returns to Washington. There were two Fed speeches today, both at the dovish end of the monetary policy spectrum – Charles Evans and Lael Brainard who didn’t provide us with any comments on current economic outlook and on monetary policy. FOMC member Kashkari will be speaking today at 4:00 pm and 10:00 pm MT time.

Aussie and kiwi are both higher on the session due to rising commodity prices. AUD/USD is trading above 0.7490 at the current moment. There is a room for extension towards 0.7480/85 levels. To maintain the momentum, bulls should allow quotes to move below 0.7430. NZD/USD spiked to 0.7030. A move beyond 0.7050 will force to focus on the upper levels.

USD/CAD dropped below 1.3475 (below 50-day MA) on surging commodity prices. Yestersay we received Trump's complete budget proposal that seeks to boost government revenues by allowing oil drilling in the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge and draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This might hurt the Loonie and oil prices in the short-term and push USD/CAD higher. On the daily chart of Brent oil futures, the doji candlestick has been formed. It is a good selling opportunity.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_may_23_1196

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: AUSSIE CAME CLOSER TO RUBICON
06:32 23.05.2017

On the AUD/USD daily chart, bulls managed to push the quotes beyond the downward trading channel and tested the resistance at 0.749. if it is broken successful, the way towards the 0.7525-0.7535 convergence zone will be opened. In contrast, the return of the Australian dollar to support at 0.745 will raise hopes for a downtrend recovery.

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, quotes reached 200%target in the AB = CD pattern. It corresponds to the upper border of the upward trading channel. It may lead to the rollback. To break the downward short-term trend, the resistances at 0.751 and 0.753 levels should be overcome.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd:_aussie_came_closer_to_rubicon_1197

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: WILL 5-0 BE REALIZED?
06:33 23.05.2017

Recommendations:

BUY 1.3435 SL 1.3380 TP 1.3650

BUY 1.3375 TP 1.3320 TP 1.3525

On USD/CAD daily chart, the 5-0 and Wolf Waves patterns are in the process of realization. If "bears" manage to test support levels at 1.3435 and 1.334, the target of Wolf Waves pattern will be fulfilled. In contrast, the rollback from 50% and 61.8% levels of the CB wave in the Shark pattern will allow the "bulls" to count on the restoration of the long-term uptrend.

On USD/CAD hourly chart, correction of the bullish trend continues. The rollback may end within the 161.8% target of the "Crab" pattern. It corresponds to the lower border of the upward trading channel.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_cad:_will_5_0_be_realized__1198

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: CONFIRMED "DOUBLE TOP"
07:10 23.05.2017

The price faced resistance at 1.1249, so there's a consolidation. Also, we've got a "Double Top" pattern, so the pair is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.1171 - 1.1139 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another bullish movement towards resistance at 1.1287 - 1.1307.

There's a "Double Top", which has been confirmed. Therefore, bears are likely going to reach support at 1.1160 in the coming hours. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this level, bulls will have an opportunity to achieve resistance at 1.1249 - 1.1279.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_confirmed_"double_top"_1200

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: BEARISH "THORN"
07:12 23.05.2017

There's a consolidation, which is taking place along the 34 Moving Average. In this case, we should keep an eye on support at 1.2945 - 1.2913 as an intraday bearish target. If a pullback from these levels happens, the pair is going to rise in the direction of the next resistance at 1.3057 - 1.3090.

We've got a "Thorn" under resistance at 1.3047, so the price is consolidating. The 55 Moving Average is acting as support. Under this circumstances, bears are likely going to reach the closest support at 1.2913, which could be a departure point for an upward price movement towards resistance at 1.2988 - 1.3023.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_bearish_"thorn"_1201

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "WINDOW" WAITING FOR BULLS
09:33 23.05.2017

The price has been rising since the last "Hammer" was formed on the lower "Window". There isn't any reversal pattern so far, so the market is likely going to test the upper "Window" in the short term. If any bearish pattern arrives afterwards, there'll be an opportunity to have a downward correction.

We've got an "Engulfing", but this pattern hasn't been confirmed yet. Therefore, if a pullback from the closest support happens, bulls are likely going to deliver a new local high.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"window"_waiting_for_bulls_1202

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: BULLISH "HAMMER" STILL ON THE TABLE.
09:38 23.05.2017

The price is still consolidating in a tight range. However, the last bullish "Hammer" is on the table, so bears are likely going to test the 144 Moving Average soon. If a pullback from this line happens, there'll be an option to have a downward movement towards the nearest support level.

The lower "Window" is acting as strong support, so we've got a lot of pullbacks from this level. Also, there's resistance by the 34 Moving Average. In this case, bulls are likely going to test the 89 Moving Average in the coming hours. If we see a pullback from this line, bears will have an opportunity to push the price towards the last low.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_bullish_"hammer"_still_on_the_table._1203

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: PULLBACK FROM 8/8 MM LEVEL
12:37 23.05.2017

The price is trying to form a pullback from 8/8 MM Level, so wave [y] of 2 may have been ended. In this case, we should keep an eye on 6/8 MM as a local bearish target.

Bulls couldn't fixate above 8/8 MM Level, so there's time for a correction. Therefore, wave (c) of [y] likely finished. The main target for wave (i) is 6/8 MM Level.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_pullback_from_8_8_mm_level_1205

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF BROKE SUPPORT ZONE
16:48 23.05.2017

USD/CHF broke support zone
Next sell target - 0.9670
USD/CHF continues to fall after the earlier breakout of the support zone lying at the intersection of the support level 0.9750 (sell target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair) and the support trendline of the wide daily down channel from the start of March. The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active impulse wave 3.

USD/CHF is expected to fall to the next sell target at the support level 0.9670 (target price calculate for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_chf_broke_support_zone_1206

 

[riki143]

EUR/AUD REVERSED FROM RESISTANCE LEVEL 1.5060
16:49 23.05.2017

EUR/AUD reversed from resistance level 1.5060
Next sell target - 1.4900
EUR/AUD recently reversed down from the powerful resistance zone lying between the major, multi-month resistance level 1.5060 (which reversed the price in the middle of September) and the upper daily Bollinger Band. If the pair closes today near the current levels it will then form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star Doji.

Given the strongly overbought reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - EUR/AUD can be expected to fall to the next sell target at the support level 1.4900 (former resistance level from the start of May).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_aud_reversed_from_resistance_level_1.5060_1207

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: MARKET RETURNED INTO CLOUD
05:13 24.05.2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7370, 0.7400/10; resistance – 0.7450.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 0.7440; SL — 0.7460; TP1 — 0.7340; TP2 — 0.7310.
Buy — 0.7460; SL — 0.7440; TP1 — 0.7520; TP2 — 0.7560.
Reason: narrow bullish Ichimoku Cloud, horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are entered into the Cloud.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd:_market_returned_into_cloud_1215

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: BULLS TOOK OFFENSIVE
05:14 24.05.2017
Technical levels: support – 111.30, 110.15; resistance – 112.20.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 111.60; SL — 112.40; TP1 — 112.20; TP2 — 113.20.
Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud, horizontal Senkou Span B; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are entered into the Cloud.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_bulls_took_offensive_1216

 

[riki143]

MORNING BRIEF FOR MAY 24
06:17 24.05.2017

The USD strengthened in Tokyo morning against its major peers due to rising 10-year Treasury note yield climbing 3 basis points overnight. The news that Trump asked intelligence directors to deny any collusion between his election campaign and Russian entities is no longer fresh one. The US political wrangling has stopped pressuring the greenback. Investors are now turning their focus towards the FOMC meeting minutes which are due at 9 pm MT time. You should pay closer attention to the phrases mentioning the pace of interest rate increases and to discussions about how to wind down the Fed’s balance sheet. A June hike still looks like as a base case scenario with investors pricing it at 83.1%. If there are some doubts over further upsurge in inflation rates, the USD will be hurt.

The euro lost its momentum and nudged away from its recent high of 1.1268 that was hit the previous day following the solid PMIs releases from the euro area. The German Ifo business climate spiked to a new all-time high. Europe’s composite PMI reading was unchanged at 56.8 suggesting that there were some offsetting weaknesses in the releases of other EZ countries. Germany will release its consumer confidence reading at 9 am MT time; the ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak at 3:45 p, at the First Conference on Financial Stability in Madrid. At the present moment, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1180. The odds for upsurge towards 1.3000 are not high, but the bullish phase in the pair is still intact.

The British pound recouped some of its losses obtained in the wake of the suicide bombing in Manchester. GBP/USD edged up a few points higher (to 1.2975). The current mild downward pressure may send GBP towards 1.2920. A hike above 1.3000 will allow us to target 1.3050. For the present moment, the technical outlook is neutral.

AUD/USD dropped to 0.7445 after the Moody’s announcement downgrading China’s sovereign rating to A1 from Aa3. China’s massive debt had been at the center of concerns among economists. The downgrade warns us about slowing economic growth in the People’s Republic of China. Additional pressure came following the disappointing release of the Australian construction work done data. Iron ore prices were also lower in China today.

USD/CAD was trading higher at 1.3535 from yesterday’s low at 1.3452. Today’s focus will be on the Bank of Canada’s official rate announcement. The central bank is unanimously expected to stand pat tonight, but with core CPI trending lower we expect the bank will remain its easing bias. The oil prices were under pressure yesterday weighed down by Trump’s plan to sell off some of the US crude oil stockpiles to generate revenue and balance the deferral budget. OPEC members will meet in Vienna on Thursday to discuss a further extension of the output cut agreement from just the first half of this year towards the first quarter of 2018. The main focus will on whether OPEC extends the period of their pledge to cut production by six or nine months. Kuwait’s oil minister said yesterday that there is no unanimous agreement among OPEC producers for a nine-month extension.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_may_24_1217

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Wednesday, May 24th
24/05/2017

If you have any questions or requests fill out the feedback form.

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 381 ? + 95 ?
Closest resistance levels 111.96; 112.27; 112.85; 113.29
Closest support levels 111.48; 111.15; 110.86; 110.50
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 111.96, with target points at 112.27 and 112.85
Alternative scenario Moving below 111.48 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 111.15 and 110.86


USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 339 ? - 1 010 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3541; 1.3565; 1.3604; 1.3659
Closest support levels 1.3515(08?); 1.3486; 1.3463; 1.3426
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3541, with the target points at 1.3565 and 1.3604
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3515 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3486 and 1.3463

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/13194

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: EURO CAUGHT THE BAT'S TAIL
06:20 24.05.2017

Recommendation: BUY 1,108 SL 1,1025 TP1 1,121 TP2 1,13.
On the EUR/USD daily chart, the target 88.6% of the "Bat" pattern was fulfilled. As a result, the risks of correction towards 1.113 (61.8% of the last downward medium-term wave) and 1.108 (the upper border of the previous upward trading channel) increased. The trend is still bullish, so rollbacks can be used for opening long positions.

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, there is a break of the lower border of the upward trading channel. A successful test of the support at 1.1165 will lead to the activation of the Shark pattern with a target of 1.108.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_euro_caught_the_bat's_tail_1218

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF: BEARS SAW A DRAGON
06:22 24.05.2017

Recommendation: BUY 0,9765 SL 0,971 TP1 0,985 TP2 0,9895.

On the USD/CHF daily chart, quotes reached the lower border of the downward trading channel and rebounded from support located at 0.9715 (78.6% of the last upward wave). These factors increase the risks of correction towards the medium-term downtrend (towards 0.985).

On the USD/CHF hourly chart, there is a formation of the Dragon reversal pattern. A break of the resistance at 0.9765 can lead to the continuation of the rally and the formation of the Dragon's head. The Bat pattern that lies in the basis of the current reversal helps us to identify the current the interim target at 0.9815.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_chf:_bears_saw_a_dragon_1219

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "DOUBLE TOP" PUSHED PRICE LOWER
06:57 24.05.2017

We've got a "Double Top" pattern, so the price is consolidating. So, the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support at 1.1139 - 1.1103. If a pullback from this area happens, we could have another bullish price movement towards the next resistance at 1.1287 - 1.1307.

The last "Double Top" pushed the price lower, so bears meet with support at 1.1171. Also, there's a "Flag" pattern, so the pair is likely going to get support on the 89 Moving Average. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this line, bulls will have an opportunity to reach the closest resistance at 1.1249 - 1.1267.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"double_top"_pushed_price_lower_1222