Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

GBP/USD: POUND IN CONSOLIDATION
05:27 26.04.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2810; resistance – 1.2830, 1.2900.
Trade recommendations:
1. Buy — 1.2840; SL — 1.2820; TP1 — 1.2900; TP2 — 1.2980.
2. Sell — 1.2820; SL — 1.2840; TP1 — 1.2710; TP2 — 1.2630.
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a weak golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal; the prices are on the support of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp/usd:_pound_in_consolidation_710

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: DOLLAR GOING TO APRIL’S HIGHS
05:29 26.04.2017

Technical levels: support – 110.80, 110.50; resistance – 111.50.
Trade recommendations:
1. Sell — 111.50; SL — 111.70; TP1 — 110.80; TP2 — 110.50.
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, horizontal Tenkan-sen; the market is overbought.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd/jpy:_dollar_going_to_april’s_highs_711

 

[riki143]

MORNING BRIEF FOR APRIL 26
06:23 26.04.2017

Growing appetite for risk meant safe-haven assets fell out of favor. Global equities rallied to an all-time high this month as European political risk abated ("dog days are over" for Europe? as Florence Welch from Florence and the machine would say). US President Donald Trump is preparing to unveil a tax plan today that would include a slashing of the of the corporate tax rate and lower taxes on offshore earnings stockpiled by US businesses oversee. The threat of a US government shutdown was eliminated after Trump consented not to demand fundings for his border wall with Mexico. Overall, the absence of the fresh news can be a lull before the storm as investors wait for some risks this week with Bank of Japan and European Central bank meetings, geopolitical tensions simmering around North Korea.
In currency markets, the euro rallied to 1.0945. The near-term outlook is tilted to the upside, but the single currency should move well above 1.2950 to indicate that an extension towards 1.1000 is not far off. Tomorrow traders will be watching for the European Central Bank meeting. While most analysts don’t expect extreme changes in the ECB’s monetary policy stance, they might send a small signal towards reducing the stimulus they provide to spur Eurozone economic growth.
Aussie was the main loser of the Asian session. It dropped to 0. 7520 on the Australian CPI data. Annual core inflation data accelerated to just below the lower end of the RBA’s target. The central bank might be willing to introduce a cut tax at the upcoming meeting. Fortunately for AUD, the Reserve Bank of Australia tend to focus on the labor market conditions (job growth and wage growth) which are still slow for the RBA to cut rates.
The British pound is consolidating in the range of 1.2750 – 1.2900 (last week high). It is a sign that the recent upward momentum is waning, and that a slide towards the nearest supports at 1.2752, 1.2620. if GBP manages to reclaim 1.2900, it might rise higher towards 1.2950. yesterday the UK’s Telegraph reported that Britain will have to pay into the EU budget up until 2020 in exchange for a sensible EU offer on a transition deal. The pound stayed intact after the announcement. This news might be important further.
USD/CAD spiked to 1.3625 overnight on the news that the US placed tariffs on Canada’s soft lumber exports. Canadian PM Trudeau refuted the baseless allegations of US commerce department on lumber and claimed that he will vigorously defend interests of softwood industry in Canada.
US crude futures lost a few points after yesterday’s industry report showed a surprise increase in the US stockpiles. Crude oil WTI futures were down to $49.45. Brent oil futures are quite steady. They hover around $52.50 level.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_april_26_716

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: LOONIE IS ROLLING INTO THE ABYSS
06:49 26.04.2017

On the USD/CAD daily, taking advantage of the weakness of the bears, the bulls broke the upper border of the downward trading channel and restored the uptrend. If they manage to keep quotes above 1.357, they might extend the rally towards 1.384.

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, the expanding wedge pattern was realized. This allowed us to open long positions and lock in their profits. The immediate support is located near 1.3525. Previously, it was a resistance. Target 161.8% in the AB = CD pattern is still relevant.

Recommendation: BUY 1,3525 SL 1,347 TP 1,372.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd/cad:_loonie_is_rolling_into_the_abyss_717

 

[riki143]

BULLS REGAINED THEIR STRENGTH
06:50 26.04.2017

On the daily chart of gold after reaching the 127.2% target in the "Perfect Butterfly" pattern there was a rebound from the lower boundary of the downward trading channel followed by the development of an upward short-term trend. If the bulls manage to settle down above $1,205 (38.2% Fibo level of the last downward wave), then the risks of continuation of the rally towards $1,230 and $1,255 will increase.



On the hourly chart of gold, an ascending triangle was formed. A breakout of its upper boundary will create prerequisites for the realization of the "bullish" scenario. There might be a correction towards an uptrend once diagonal support near $1,195 is tested successfully.

[IMG]

More:
[URL=https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/bulls_regained_their_strength_718]https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/bulls_regained_their_strength_718[/URL]

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BROKEN "PENNANT"
07:10 26.04.2017

Bulls have broken the “Wedge’s” upper side, but the price faced a resistance at 1.0951 afterwards. However, the market is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.0991. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline in the direction of the nearest support at 1.0872 – 1.0828.

We’ve got a new local high on the one-hour chart. Meanwhile, the pair is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.0991 during the day. If we see a pullback from this level, bears will probably try to reach the 55 Moving Average.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur/usd:_broken_"pennant"_719

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: RESISTANCE WAITING FOR BULLS
07:17 26.04.2017

The last “Pennant” was broken, but bulls haven’t moved higher yet. So, the price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.2865. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to achieve the next resistance at 1.2911 – 1.2945. If a pullback from these levels be on the table, there’ll be a chance to have a bearish correction.

The price is consolidating near the broken “Pennant”. The main intraday target is the nearest resistance at 1.2911, which could be a departure point for a downward correction towards the 89 Moving Average.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp/usd:_resistance_waiting_for_bulls_720

 

[riki143]

TIMING OF THE NEXT FED RATE HIKE
09:33 26.04.2017

Investors are always concerned with the question of when the Fed will raise interest rates. The timing of the next hike is a balancing act between the need for preemptive policy to stave off heightening inflation rates against the need to let labor market strength continue to eat away at any residual underemployment. Everyone who needs to determine the odds of rate increases at the upcoming meetings should look at the economic data releases reflecting the performance of country’s economy. So, we did skim through the key data and noticed some distortions that would probably divert Fed’s policymakers from hiking in June.
CPI figures – the well-known bedrock behind the Fed’s rate hiking intentions – fell for the first time in 13 months. The headline fell short of market expectations having printed at -0.3%. US retail sales decline 0.2% last month marking the worst two-month stretch in two years and warning traders of the softness in the first-quarter US growth data (will be released on this Friday). Core CPI numbers dropped 0.1% as if they wanted to remind the Fed, that they won’t always be at its targeted levels and that there shouldn’t be any sense of urgency for the Fed to raise rates.
Consumer confidence declined to 120.3 in April from a revised 124.9; the March jobs report had a weaker-than-expected headline. The soft data won’t knock the Fed’s officials off tightening course, but it may retard it.
According to BofA analysts, next rate increases will likely be approved at the Fed's September and December meetings in 2017. Then, the Fed will likely proceed with shrinkage of its balance sheet.
BofA believes that the Fed will signal about its readiness to trim $4 trillion portfolio in September. In December, it will release a formal balance sheet reduction plan and final changes will be made public in March 2018. The announcement of the balance sheet reduction is a tightening measure. So, it might have an impact equal to a 25 bp rate hike.
Market participants seem to be more optimistic about June rate increases than banks’ analysts. The CME Group FedWatch reflects a 71.3% probability of a hike in June.

The main focus will be on the upcoming US labor and inflation data. If it is not strong enough, there won’t be a rate hike in June.
The US dollar has weakened in the past weeks. The US dollar index was steadily falling since the beginning of this year. It found support at 98.70, and now it is hovering around 99.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/timing_of_the_next_fed_rate_hike__722

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: BANK OF JAPAN’S MEETING PREVIEW
11:16 26.04.2017

The Bank of Japan meets on Thursday to announce its monetary policy statement and to deliver its latest updated Outlook Report.
Here is a banks’ preview
Barclays
Barclays expects the BoJ to keep the settings on its monetary easing program intact as inflation remains well below the central bank’s 2 percent target.
The board shouldn’t make any changes to its current quantitative easing program despite the gradually reducing amount of available JGBs.
The quarterly Outlook Report will be released at the end of the meeting. Barclays doesn’t expect any changes in the bank’s GDP growth forecasts. But policymakers might change its core CPI projections for 2017 fiscal year.
Barclays analysts predict the BoJ slightly raising its target for long-term yields under the yield curve control program in the third quarter of 2017. This might offer some support to the yen. However, the prospects for such a move will heavily depend on the gradually rising inflation rates, stable financial conditions, weakening of the yen and pronounced acceleration of the US and China’s economic growth.
Nomura
Nomura analysts also expect the Bank of Japan to leave its ultra-loose monetary policy unchanged tomorrow as geopolitical risks in the Korean peninsula still exist. They will be safe haven supportive for the yen. The recent JPY depreciation after the first round of the French election has been a relief for the BoJ officials willing to stay on the sidelines this week.
On the Japanese currency front, Nomura believes the yen’s reaction to policy announcement would be muted as overall market expectations for any change are low.
The banks’ forecasts can be supported by the recent comments from the BoJ’s Governor Kuroda.
Last week, he said that the bank will continue with its very accommodative monetary policy and maintain the current pace of asset purchases for some time as inflation rate is still quite sluggish.
The BoJ’s loose monetary policy lasts for already 4 years. So far, Kuroda is still far from his coveted inflation target. The bank is running up huge balance sheet since the outburst of the financial crisis. While the Fed is planning to trim its $4 trillion portfolio, Japan’s CB officials are not going to discuss its balance sheet problems in the near-term future.
"I don’t think our monetary policy is constrained by the fact that we have acquired 40 % of JGBs already, or our balance sheet is about 80% of GDP, which is certainly large compared with other central banks,” Kuroda notes in his recent interview. “We have acquired about 40 percent of JGBs outstanding. But that means that 60 percent is still in the market."
USD/JPY spiked to 111.50 in wait for the US President Trump’s tax proposal which is expected to ask for a reduction of the corporate rate to 15% from the current 35%. And bring the highest tax rate down to 25% from 39.6%. The problem is the lack of details on how these tax cuts will be implemented/funded. If Mr. Trump fails to provide us with details, the dollar can lose some of its recent gains. In the opposite scenario, the USD/JPY currency will rally higher above 112.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd/jpy:_bank_of_japan’s_meeting_preview_725

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "TWEEZERS" LED TO CORRECTION
12:50 26.04.2017

We’ve got a bearish “Tweezers”, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, bears are likely going to test nearest “Window”. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement.

There’re a “Three Black Crows” and an “Engulfing”. Considering a confirmation of both patterns, the market is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average during the day.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur/usd:_"tweezers"_led_to_correction_726

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "WINDOW" ACTED AS SUPPORT
12:54 26.04.2017

We still don’t have any confirmed reversal pattern. Also, there’s a possible bullish “Three Methods”. So, the pair is likely going to test the upper “Window” in the coming days.

There’s an “Engulfing” pattern on the lower “Window”, which has acted as a support. In this case, the market is likely going to continue moving up towards the nearest resistance level.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd/jpy:_"window"_acted_as_support_727

 

[riki143]

USD/TRY: SHORT-TERM AND NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
13:04 26.04.2017

The lira strengthened significantly following President Erdogan referendum victory held on April 16. Yet it was hardly the win the president had expected. The yes camp limped away with just 51.4% of the vote. The opposition and outside observers accused the country’s electoral board with stacking the odds in Mr. Erodgan’s favor. Investors seemed to be less concerned with the fairness of referendum’s results; they welcomed outcome although there are still many questions of how Erdogan will use his enhanced powers to reunite splintered nation, revive economic growth, bring inflation under control, strengthen lira, resolve problems with country’s external woes and widened the current-account deficit.
On this Monday, with the first round of France’s presidential election complete, many emerging market currencies managed to escape a potential sell-off trigger that they would have experienced if centrist Macron hadn’t won the runoff. So, the Turkish lira extended its post-referendum gains since the French results announcement. USD/TRY slumped to 3.5675. In the following day, the Turkish currency lost its steam despite the great efforts of the Turkish Central Bank to strengthen its exchange rate and fight inflation. Earlier today Turkish central bank officials unexpectedly increased its late liquidity window rate by 50 bp to 12.25% despite pressure from Erodgan’s government to avoid tightening measure. The bank officials seem to be deaf to government’s threats; they are determined to tackle the country’s inflation problem with additional tightening measure if needed. The lira strengthened after the decision and started trading at 3.5720 against the US dollar. The lira’s rally has little support though as Donald Trump is preparing to reveal his tax plan later today.
The technical outlook for USD/TRY is bullish. The prices failed to break a solid support line at 3.5483 which is the basis of the descending triangle – a bearish chart pattern. Now, the quotes are heading towards the salient resistance at 3.6521, near the coming closer together of 50- and 100-day MAs. A break of this resistance will open the way towards next hurdle at 3.7475 (April 7 high). If markets are disappointed with Trump not providing sufficient details on his tax plan, USD/TRY might try test the support at 3.5483, or lower levels.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd/try:_short_term_and_near_term_outlook__729

 

[riki143]

EUR/AUD BROKE RESISTANCE ZONE
14:51 26.04.2017

EUR/AUD broke resistance zone
Next buy target - 1.4700
EUR/AUD continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 1.4300 (top of the previous waves 2 and (A), intersecting with the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse (C) from December) and 1.4400. The breakout of this resistance zone follows the earlier breakout of the extended daily down channel - which accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3.
EUR/AUD is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.4700 (which reversed the previous intermediate correction (B) in December)

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur/aud_broke_resistance_zone_730

 

[riki143]

AUD/CHF BROKE STRONG SUPPORT ZONE
14:52 26.04.2017

AUD/CHF broke strong support zone
Next sell target - 0.7370

AUD/CHF continues to fall after the earlier sharp breakout of the strong support zone lying between the pivotal support level 0.7480 (which also reversed the previous waves 4 and (A), as can be seen below ) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from December. The breakout of this support accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to wave (C) from March.
AUD/CHF is expected to fall to the next sell target at the next support level 0.7370 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud/chf_broke_strong_support_zone_731

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: WAVE (III) ENDED
16:24 26.04.2017

There’s a pullback from 7/8 MM Level, so wave (iii) has been ended. Therefore, bears are likely going to deliver wave (iv). In this case, we should keep an eye on 4/8 MM Level as an intraday target.



As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave (iii) was formed like a double zigzag. The main target for wave a or w is 5/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for a local bullish correction.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur/usd:_wave_(iii)_ended_732

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: ON SUPPORT OF TENKAN
05:28 27.04.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0900; resistance – 1.0930.
Trade recommendations:
1. Sell — 1.0890; SL — 1.0910; TP1 — 1.0820; TP1 — 1.0800.
2. Buy — 1.0800; SL — 1.0780; TP1 — 1.0900; TP2 – 1.0930.
Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but Senkou Span A and B are horizontal; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, the horizontal Kijun-sen; the prices are under strong resistance on daily timeframe; the local market is overbought and waiting for correction to Kijun-sen.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur/usd:_on_support_of_tenkan_738

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: BEARS MADE NEW LOCAL LOWS
05:29 27.04.2017
Technical levels: support – 0.7450, 0.7425; resistance – 0.7500.
Trade recommendations:
1. Sell — 0.7500; SL — 0.7520; TP1 — 0.7450; TP2 — 0.7425.
Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are near daily support.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud/usd:_bears_made_new_local_lows_739

 

[riki143]

MORNING BRIEF FOR APRIL 27
06:33 27.04.2017

The much-awaited Trump’s tax plan was meager on detail and long on giveaways to the biggest corporations and billionaires. US President proposed slashing taxes for businesses to 15% from the current 35% for public corporations and 39.6% for small businesses. So, the plan matched up closely with the promises Trump made during his election campaign but failed to inspire investors who waited for more specifics on how it would be paid for without increasing already huge deficit.
The US Congress inched towards a deal to fund Trump’s administration through September but was preparing to extend a Friday deadline in order to ram home negotiations and avoid a government shutdown. Any breakdown in talks to government shutdown will result in a market’s turmoil.
Donald Trump scrambling to show progress on his agenda before termination of his 100th day in office claimed that he is considering a swifter renegotiation of the NAFTA deal. The Mexican peso and CAD recovered after Trump’s administration promised not to terminate NAFTA this time.
The euro rallied to 1.0905 since Monday after risks of a victory for anti-EU presidential candidate Marine Le Pen recede. The European Central Bank is scheduled to deliver its monetary policy statement at 3:30 pm MT time. No change in policy is unanimously expected. The fact that a Le Pen – Melenchon scenario was averted in the French election, and pro-EU centrist Macron is poised to win in the second round, is positive news for the ECB policymakers. Economic data for the Eurozone is also at a six-year high, but a disappointing inflation headline that we received in March may not inspire the ECB to change its present monetary policy settings at today’s meeting. An over-secretive Draghi at the press conference could potentially hamper the euro gains.
The yen remained almost intact after the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged with short-term interest rate target at -0.1 and a commitment to guide long-term bond yields around zero percent. The BoJ noted that Japan’s economy has expanded. The word expansion in describing the state of the continuously anemic economy can be interpreted as a policymakers’ conviction that the recovery is gaining momentum (upgraded assessment of Japan’s economic outlook). The BoJ officials slightly cut their inflation forecast for this fiscal year in a quarterly review of their projections. The 2 percent target will likely be hit only in 2018. USD/JPY is hovering near 111.30. A break of this level will allow us to target a move towards 112.20.
The Canadian dollar is at the bottom of the G10 leader board today. Yesterday we got Canada’s retail sales releases which had a softer than expected outcome. Another headwind was the risk for the termination of the NAFTA deal that finally receded after Trump’s commitment not to end it now. USD/CAD is trading at 1.4555. The pair has a room for a further extension towards 1.4710, 1.4835 if not stopped by 200-, 100-day MAs.
Aussie recouped some of its yesterday’s losses in Tokyo morning haven risen to 0.7470 from 0.7450. An upward momentum is not strong enough; it might end around 0.7520.
Kiwi soared to 0.6910 in the morning after touching 0.6870 (the lowest level in last 4 months). It has a room for extension towards the immediate resistance at 0.6975.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_april_27__743

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "DOUBLE TOP" STOPPED BULLS
06:52 27.04.2017

Bulls faced a resistance at 1.0951, so we’ve got a “Double Top”, which pushed the price to the previously broken “Wedge” pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards a support 1.0819 – 1.0729. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement.

There’s a “Double Top”, which has been confirmed, so the price is consolidating. In this case, bears are likely going to test a support area between the levels 1.0819 – 1.0777. However, if a pullback from these levels happens, bulls will probably try to achieve a resistance at 1.0855.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur/usd:_"double_top"_stopped_bulls_744

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: WILL THE POUND LEAVE THE LEDGE?
06:57 27.04.2017

On the GBP/USD daily chart, "bulls" are trying to implement the "Splash and ledge" pattern. If they succeed, the risks of continuation of the rally towards 161.8% target in the AB = CD pattern will increase. In contrast, a move of quotes to the middle level of the 1.2770 - 1.2860 trading range can lead to the formation of "Shakeout-fakeout" pattern and development of the correction to the current uptrend.

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the failure of buyers to move higher will be a sign of their weakness. It might also lead to the formation of the expanding wedge reversal pattern,

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp/usd:_will_the_pound_leave_the_ledge?_746