Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: EURO SUPPORTED BY SENKOU SPAN B
07:12 17.04.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0600; resistance – 1.0660, 1.0715.
Trade recommendations:
1. Buy — 1.0620; SL — 1.0600; TP1 — 1.0660; TP2 – 1.0715.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, the lines are in a same value; the prices are supported by bottom border of the Cloud.

5kvTjJHUt.png


[More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eurusd-euro-supported-by-senkou-span-b
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
GBP/USD: POUND IS UNDER STRONG RESISTANCE
07:17 17.04.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2530; resistance – 1.2550, 1.2590.
Trade recommendations:
1. Sell — 1.2550; SL — 1.2570; TP1 — 1.2430; TP2 — 1.2400.
Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under daily resistance; the local market is overbought.

5kxowhmGh.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbpusd-pound-is-under-strong-resistance
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: PRICE GOING TO TEST "WINDOW" AGAIN
12:24 17.04.2017

1704eurusdH4.png


The 34 Moving Average and the upper “Window” have acted as a resistance. However, there isn’t any bearish pattern, so the market is likely going to test the 89 & 144 Moving Averages in the short term. If a pullback from these lines happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.

1704eurusdH1.png


The last bearish “Harami” hasn’t been confirmed, but we’ve got a bullish “Three Methods” pattern. In this case, the price is likely going to test the upper “Window” once again during the day. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will probably try to find a lodgment under Moving Averages.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eurusd_candle_april_17
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
USD/JPY: BEARS GOING TO PUSH PRICE EVEN LOWER
12:28 17.04.2017

1704usdjpyH4png.png


The main trend is still bearish. Also, there’s a “Three Methods” pattern, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the price is likely going to get a resistance on the nearest “Window”, which could be a departure point for another decline. So, we could have a new local low soon.

1704usdjpyH1.png


As you can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a local bullish “Hammer” at the last low. At the same time, if any bearish pattern arrives on the nearest resistance level in the coming hours, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usdjpy_candle_april_17
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
OIL MARKET OVERVIEW
12:31 17.04.2017

Crude oil edged down in a subdued trading on Monday as investors are still digesting expansion of the US crude oil production.
Benchmark Brent crude futures fell to $55.66 from its last-week high of $56.65. US West Texas intermediate crude futures were down to $52.95 after rising to $53.75 last week.
Baker Hughes officials said on Thursday that drillers added 11 oil rigs in the week of April 13. According to the recent information of the Energy Information Administration, the US crude oil production has grown to 9.4 million barrels per day, making the US the third largest producer after Saudi Arabia and Russia. Cost-cutting technological advancements helped US firms to become more competitive in areas previously reserved solely by such large producers as BP and Exxon Mobil. Field works in Arctic lands and waters make OPEC and non-OPEC signatory parties of the output cut deal more nervous about their market shares in the futures. Despite growing opposition from numerous environmental groups and President Obama’s 2016 ban on drilling in Artic waters, exploration in Alaska managed to reveal massive volumes of oil. The following wave of Artic development might influence the oil prices in the long-term future.
Political tensions in the Middle East (airstrikes in Syria), unplanned outages in Libya resulting in the shutdown of the Sharara oil field contributed to the recent uplift in oil prices. The possibility of extension of output cut deal was an additional tailwind for crude oil futures in the past two weeks.
Next month, OPEC countries and their allies will gather together to decide whether to extend an agreement curbing oil production or not. It will be a difficult decision to make as the signatory parties are facing a lose-lose situation. If they fail to agree on the deal extension, the oil market will be oversupplied and oil prices tumble. If they manage to strike a deal, prices will likely hit higher levels offering the US oil producing industry a scope for further expansion.
So, without the cut deal, the bull market is poised to fade away, with Libya reopening its oil field after outages, geopolitical tension easing and flourishing oil industry in the US.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/oil-market-overviewapril17
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: BEARS READY FOR WAVE (III)
12:38 17.04.2017

Image20170417153541001.png


We’ve got a flat pattern in wave (ii). Also, there’s a bearish impulse in wave (i). Therefore, bears are likely going to deliver an impulse in wave (iii) in the short term. The main intraday target is -2/8 MM Level.

Image20170417153541002.png


There’s a diagonal triangle in wave c of (ii), which led to form a wedge in wave i of (iii). Wave ii is likely going to end in the coming hours. So, if a pullback from 7/8 MM Level happens, there’ll be time for wave iii of (iii).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eurusd_wave_april_17
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
NZD/USD RISING INSIDE IMPULSE WAVE 3 AND (3)
15:39 17.04.2017

NZD/USD rising inside impulse wave 3 and (3)
Next buy targets - 0.7070 and 0.7130
NZD/USD continues to rise sharply inside the minor impulse wave 3, which started earlier from the strong support zone lying between the pivotal support level 0.6900 (which also reversed the price sharply in December and March, as can be seen below) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The active minor impulse wave 3 belongs to the intermediate impulse (3) of the primary impulse wave ③ from December.
NZD/USD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7070 (top of the earlier b-wave) – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 0.7130 (former monthly low from February).

5qkwHkhsE.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzdusd1704
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
NZD/CAD REVERSED FROM POWERFUL SUPPORT ZONE
15:41 17.04.2017

NZD/CAD reversed from powerful support zone
Next buy target - 0.9450
NZD/CAD recently revered up sharply from the powerful support zone lying between the support levels 0.9270 and 0.9220 (which also reversed the price sharply in December and January). This support zone was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer – which started the active minor correction ii.
Given the bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic indicator - NZD/CAD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9450 (top of the previous minor corrective wave ii).

5qpgH3N8e.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzdcad1704
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
AUD/USD: Aussie chooses south
4/19/2017

On the AUD/USD daily chart, the failure of the bulls to test the resistance at 0.7612 was a signal of their weakness. Quotes returned to support at 0.7523. If it is tested successfully, targets 127.2% and 161.8% in the "Crab" pattern will likely be implemented.

Screenshot_2017_04_19_06_44_43.png


On the AUD/USD hourly chart, quotes are moving within the downward trading channel. The bears remain their control over the pair. Positions of big buyers are located near the 0.7515 and 0.7485 marks. If the levels are tested successfully, the sellers might count on the restoration of the downtrend.

Screenshot_2017_04_19_06_45_00.png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13100
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
Gold prices took a break
4/19/2017

On the daily chart of gold, there is a desperate struggle for an important level $1,286. There is an intermediate 127.2% target in the AB = CD pattern. The bulls' win will lead to the continuation of the rally. In contrast, their defeat can lead to the development of the correction towards $1,260.

Screenshot_2017_04_19_06_45_17.png


On the hourly chart of gold, buyers need to test the upper border of the ledge in the "Splash and Ledge" pattern ($1,292). The drop of quotes below the support at $1,278 per ounce will activate the expanding wedge pattern and can potentially lead to the pullback towards $1,260.

Screenshot_2017_04_19_06_45_33.png


Recommendations: hold longs (BUY $1278 SL $1263 TP1 $1312 TP2 $1340),

BUY 1260 SL 1245 TP 1300.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13101
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
Key option levels for Wednesday, April 19th
4/19/2017

If you have any questions or requests fill out the feedback form.

USD/JPY

USDJPY(109).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 3 438 ? + 1 055 ?
Closest resistance levels 108.80; 109.21; 109.49; 109.83
Closest support levels 108.05; 107.82; 107.63; 107.38
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 108.80 or from 108.65, with target points at 109.21 and 109.49
Alternative scenario Moving below 108.05 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 107.82 and 107.63


USD/CAD

USDCAD(141).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 13 ? + 1 072 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3437; 1.3484; 1.3548; 1.3624
Closest support levels 1.3405; 1.3376; 1.3335; 1.3308
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3405, with the target points at 1.3376 and 1.3335
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3437 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3484 and 1.3548


AUD/USD

AUDUSD(12).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 0 + 9 ?
Closest resistance levels 0.7538; 0.7564; 0.7588; 0.7608
Closest support levels 0.7513; 0.7490; 0.7460; 0.7424
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short AUD/USD below 0.7513 (or from 0.7538), with the target points at 0.7490 and 0.7460
Alternative scenario Moving above 0.7538 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 0.7564 and 0.7588

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13102
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
USD/CAD: bears faced with the wedge
4/20/2017

On the USD/CAD daily chart, there was a false breakout of the lower border of the upward trading channel. The failure of the bears to keep quotes above the level of 1.3306 showed their weakness. If the bulls manage to test the diagonal resistance in the form of the upper border of the downward medium-term channel, there might be a continuation of the rally.

Screenshot_2017_04_20_08_03_27.png


On the USD/CAD hourly chart, the expanding wedge pattern was formed. A rollback of prices towards 23.8%, 38.2% and 50% levels of the 4-5 wave can be used for the opening of long positions. But first, the point 5 should be formed.

Screenshot_2017_04_20_08_03_43.png


Recommendations:

BUY 1,3425 SL 1,337 TP 1,3575,

BUY 1,3385 SL 1,333 TP 1,357.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13104
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: bulls took a break
4/20/2017

On the EUR/USD daily chart, there was a rebound of quotes from the lower boundary of the medium-term rising channel with the subsequent breakout of the upper boundary of the short-term downward channel. Bulls managed to settle above the important level of 1.0695. As a result, an internal bar was formed. A breakout of its upper border near 1.0738 will create prerequisites for the continuation of the rally. In contrast, a successful test of the support at 1.0695 will allow bears to regain their control over the pair.

Screenshot_2017_04_20_08_02_53.png


On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the exit of quotes from the triangle followed by the activation of the inverted Shark pattern increased the risks of implementation of 88.6% target (1.087). But first, the bulls need to break the resistance at 1.0738.

Screenshot_2017_04_20_08_03_11.png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13103
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
Key option levels for Thursday, April 20th
4/20/2017

If you have any questions or requests fill out the feedback form.

EUR/USD

EURUSD(167).png



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 66 285 ↑ + 210 054 ↑
Closest resistance levels 1.0785; 1.0808; 1.0846; 1.0872
Closest support levels 1.0738; 1.0688; 1.0651; 1.0603
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0738 or from 1.0785, with target points at 1.0688 and 1.0651
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0785 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0808 and 1.0846




USD/JPY

USDJPY(110).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 65 ↑ + 105 ↑
Closest resistance levels 109.33; 109.58; 109.89; 110.27
Closest support levels 108.96; 108.45; 108.08; 107.86
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 108.96, with target points at 108.45 and 108.08
Alternative scenario Moving above 109.33 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 109.58 and 109.89


AUD/USD

AUDUSD(13).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 92 ↑ + 120 ↑
Closest resistance levels 0.7531; 0.7552; 0.7581; 0.7617
Closest support levels 0.7516; 0.7485; 0.7458; 0.7437
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short AUD/USD below 0.7516, with the target points at 0.7485 and 0.7458
Alternative scenario Moving above 0.7531 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 0.7552 and 0.7581

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13105
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
GBP/USD: pound drew an inner bar
4/21/2017

On the GBP/USD daily chart, there is a consolidation after a sudden rebound. After a bar with a wide range, two inner bars were formed. These are the boundaries of the trading range of 1.277-1.286. A breakout of the support will increase the risks of the correction towards 1.272 and 1.259. A successful test of the resistance will lead to the continuation of the rally.

Screenshot_2017_04_21_07_33_23.png


On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the "Splash and ledge" pattern and triangle were formed. A breakout of the borders of the triangle and exit of quotes from the consolidation range of 1.277-1.285 will allow us to determine a further movement of the pair.

Screenshot_2017_04_21_07_33_38.png


Recommendations:

SELL 1,277 SL 1,2825 TP 1,26,

BUY 1,285 SL 1,2795 TP 1,305.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13108
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
NZD/USD: bulls were spooked by their own audacity
4/21/2017

On the NZD/USD daily chart, the bulls managed to kick the quotes out of the downward trading channel. But the bears were strong enough not to allow the bulls to move higher. There is a consolidation range within 0.696-0.705 levels. A breakout of its lower border will allow us to count on the implementation of 113% and 161.8% targets in the Crab and AB = CD patterns.

Screenshot_2017_04_21_07_33_52.png


On the NZD/USD hourly chart, the expanding wedge pattern has been formed. A rollback towards 38.2% and 50% levels from the 4-5 wave can be used for opening short positions.

Screenshot_2017_04_21_07_34_06.png


Recommendations:

SELL 0,701 SL 0,7065 TP 0,691,

SELL 0,702 SL 0,7075 TP 0,692,

BUY 0,7045 SL 0,699 TP 0,715.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13109
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
Key option levels for Friday, April 21st
4/21/2017

If you have any questions or requests fill out the feedback form.

EUR/USD

EURUSD(168).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 131 841 ? + 576 006 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0737;1.0785; 1.0808; 1.0846
Closest support levels 1.0720; 1.0686; 1.0650; 1.0603
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0720 or from 1.0737, with target points at 1.0686 and 1.0650
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0737 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0785 and 1.0808

AUD/USD

AUDUSD(14).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 95 ? + 21 ?
Closest resistance levels 0.7549; 0.7590; 0.7622; 0.7661
Closest support levels 0.7515; 0.7480; 0.7454; 0.7421
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short AUD/USD below 0.7515, with the target points at 0.7480 and 0.7454
Alternative scenario Moving above 0.7549 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 0.7590 and 0.7622

more;
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13110
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
MORNING BRIEF FOR APRIL 24
06:39 24.04.2017

The biggest winners from the French elections were probably the pollsters who managed to forecast the outcome of the runoff. Let’s pat them on the back; they did a great job having predicted that centrist Emmanuel Macron will face off against far-right National Front leader, Marine Le Pen on May 7. The euro jumped the most in a month in Tokyo session. Exchange rates across the trading desk moved sharply in the thin liquidity conditions. The yen retreated; volatility ebbed, and gold slumped significantly; most of the major currencies opened with the gaps.

82U1X18ZF.png


Source: Bloomberg.com
Then, we saw a gap filling across the trading desk. EUR/USD tumbled to 1.0820 from 1.0917 hit in the early trading hours. Towards the end of the week, the single European currency may extend its losses as European Central Bank’s ultra-loose stance is set to remain unchanged at the upcoming monetary policy meeting.
USD/JPY was one of the biggest gainers after the French election results were published. The pair rallies to 110.60, then retraced to 109.80 as traders turned to rising tensions on the Korean peninsula once French election tumult disappeared. There is talk that North Korea may test an intercontinental ballistic missile or even nuclear device tomorrow celebrating the 85th anniversary of the founding of its military forces. The yen may flex its muscles throughout the day; it may extend its gains to at least 108.85 (near 200-day MA and 50% Fibo level traced from last year low).
Aussie fell from its earlier high of 0.7585 to 0.7535. It may slide further towards 0.7520 (100-day MA). An additional drop may come after Trump delivers more details on his pro-growth and tax policies.
The British pound was also a loser of the Asian session. It dropped to 1.2778 after rallying to 1.2845. UK PM minister Theresa May will likely have to negotiate new EU-UK terms of cooperation/trade with a ?lose-knit, team minded Merkel/Macron team. And these two EU leaders will be the hard nuts to crack. The economic calendar for the pair is light today.
Loonie gained some strength in Tokyo morning. USD/CAD dipped to 1.3460 on the session. There is a scope for extension its gains. Oil prices recouped of last week’s hefty losses as the OPEC-led committee was said to back prolonging supply cuts. Crude oil futures will be vulnerable this week as Trump is set to sign several executive orders on energy and the environment this week whicha would make it easier for the US to develop energy on and offshore. In the preceding weeks, US production and inventory growth was the major headwinds for oil prices.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_april_24_666
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
USD/JPY: BULLS BENEFITED FROM THE GAP FORMATION
06:57 24.04.2017

On the USD/JPY daily chart, the bulls with the help of a gap reached the resistance at 110.2. It corresponds to the lower boundary of the 110.2-111.55 consolidation range. As a result, the Wolf Waves pattern was formed. A breakout of 110.2 and 111.15 levels can lead to the implementation of 112.5 and 112.9 targets.

Screenshot_2017_04_24_06_58_31.png


On the USD/JPY hourly chart, there is a formation of the Dragon reversal pattern. Update of the high of today's trading day (110.55) or closing of the gap with a subsequent rebound from the upper boundary of the previous downward trading channel will create the prerequisites for opening long positions.

Screenshot_2017_04_24_06_58_48.png


Recommendations: BUY 110,55 SL 110 TP 112,5, BUY 109,5 SL 108,95 TP1 111,45 TP2 112,5.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd/jpy:_bulls_benefited_from_the_gap_formation_667
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
USD/CHF: FRANC IS TRYING TO HIT PARITY LEVEL
07:03 24.04.2017

On the USD/CHF daily chart, the "bears" failed to settle down below the important support at 0.9945. It was a signal of their weakness. The bulls can realize the Wolf Waves pattern. For this to happen they need to rise above the parity level, and then successfully test the resistance at 1.004.

Screenshot_2017_04_24_07_03_21.png


On the USD/CHF hourly chart, after the realization of the downward triangle, the expanding wedge reversal pattern was formed. To complete it, the high at point 3 (parity) should be updated. It will be a basis for opening long positions.

Screenshot_2017_04_24_07_03_37.png


Recommendation: BUY 1, SL 0,9945 TP 1,002.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd/chf:_franc_is_trying_to_hit_parity_level_668