Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Harami" pushed the price lower
2/15/2017

We’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern above the “Window”. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue moving up towards the nearest support level.

The lower “Window” acted as a resistance, so we’ve got a “Harami”, which has been confirmed. Also, there’s a “Three Black Crows” pattern, so bears are likely going to test the closest support during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12495

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls going to test "Window"
2/15/2017

The 13 Moving Average is acting as a support, so we’ve got a bullish “Harami”, which has been confirmed. So, the price is likely going to test the upper “Window” in the short term. If any bearish pattern arrives later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.

The nearest strong “Window” has been broken, so the price is likely going to test the 13 Moving Average. However, bulls will probably try to reach the next upper “Window” during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12496

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave is about to end
2/15/2017

Wave 2 has been formed like a zigzag, so the price is declining in wave . The main intraday target is 6/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for wave [ii].

As we can see on the one-hours chart, wave is about to end. We’ve got an extension in wave (iii) and a small correction in wave (iv). If a pullback from 4/8 MM Level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local correction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12498

 

[riki143]

AUD/JPY broke key resistance level 87.00
2/15/2017

AUD/JPY broke key resistance level 87.00
Next buy target – 89.00
AUD/JPY continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the key resistance level 87.00 (previous buy target, which has been steadily reversing the price from the middle of December, as can be seen from the daily AUD/JPY chart below). The breakout of this resistance level accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and (3) – both of which belong to the primary impulse wave ? from the end of December.

AUD/JPY is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 89.00. Protective stop-loss can be placed below the aforementioned price level 87.00.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12501

 

[riki143]

EUR/AUD broke support area
2/15/2017

EUR/AUD broke support area
Next sell target - 1.3600
EUR/AUD continues to fall after the recent breakout of the support area lying between the support levels 1.4000 and 1.3900, both of which were set as the sell target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support area accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 – which then broke the support trendline of the daily down channel from last September.

EUR/AUD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.3600 (forecast price calculated for the termination of the active impulse wave (iii)).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12502

 

[riki143]

Gold: bulls are trying to restore the trend
2/16/2017

On the daily chart of gold, bulls held the level of $1220. At the present moment, they are trying to restore the uptrend. To continue their rally in the direction of $1280 they will need to test the convergence area located at $1250-1257. The inability of buyers to consolidate around the February high will be a signal of their weakness.

On the hourly chart of gold, to retest support at $1218 can lead to the formation of expanding wedge pattern. As a result, there might be a correction in the direction of $1180. The nearest resistance levels are located near the marks of $1244 and $1255.

Recommendations:

SELL $1255 SL $1270 TP $1220,

SELL $1218 SL $1230 TP $1180.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12504

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears are setting up a trap
2/16/2017

On the EUR/USD daily chart, the target on the previously opened shorts has been fulfilled (SELL 1,0667 SL 1,0722 TP 1,0535). After that, the bulls gained control over the market. A rebound from the intermediate target 61.8% in the "Shark" pattern allows buyers to develop the correction in direction of 1.0635 and 1.0675 levels. But the technical outlook for the pair is still "bearish", so, there is the rationale of selling the euro on the growth of quotes.

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the resistance levels are located near 1.065 and 1.071. These levels correspond to the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels from the last upward wave.

Recommendations:

SELL 1,065 SL 1,0705 TP 1,0445,

SELL 1,071 SL 1,0765 TP1 1,053 TP2 1,0445.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12505

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for February 16
2/16/2017

The US dollar ran out steam in the course of the Asian session as investors took their profits. Wednesday’s US economic data and Fed Chair Yellen testimony lifted the odds for a March hike to 48% from earlier 37%. Coming back to the data, CPI figures for January were really strong; they doubled the market consensus at 0.6%. Well, much of these gains reflects petrol prices’ rally, but the core data also rose strongly to 0.3% which takes the annual rate to 2.3%. The CPI gives a good indication for the PCE measure closely watched by the Fed when it sets interest rate. A rule of thumb – the PCE is usually 0.5% less than the CPI which makes the annual core PCE to 1.8%. It’s very close to the Fed’s coveted target, isn’t it? The US retail sales and the Empire State Manufacturing index were also very strong. The latter one spiked to 18.7 which is well above the consensus figures (7.0). Yellen’s testimony before Congress offered no additional insight on the timing of the next rate hike. She simply reiterated the points she made on Tuesday to the Senate. Today’s focus will be on the US construction data, unemployment claims, and Philly Fed Manufacturing.

The euro edged up to 1.0620 on the session. USD/JPY slid to 113.40 from yesterday’s high at around 114.50 although there were no significant data releases or news.

The Australian jobs report was in the spotlight today. The headline was upbeat signaling a tepid recovery of the labor market. Aussie jumped to almost 0.7700 on the data and maintained in that area without many further advances.

NZD/USD also went higher in the course of the Asian session having risen to 0.7175. You should closely watch New Zealand retail sales figures coming at 11:45 pm MT time.

Loonie gathered momentum and gained some point against the greenback. USD/CAD dropped to 1.3030. Yesterday’s Canadian manufacturing sales release was supportive to CAD. The economic calendar for USD/CAD is light with the focus on the US data releases. Oil prices decelerated their pace. Brent was flat at $55.75, US crude dipped to $53 levels.

GBP/USD experienced a modest upsurge on the session. It rose to 1.2480 having partially pared its earlier losses. The market participants still wait for the details on the timing of the formal Brexit. Senior government officials expect PM Theresa May to make the announcement on March 9 – March 10 at the EU summit in Brussels right after the final vote on the bill in the House of Lords on March 7.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12506

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: aussie on local highs
2/16/2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7660/70, 0.7690; resistance – 0.7720.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7690; SL — 0.7670; TP1 — 0.7780; TP2 — 0.7840.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A and B; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the rising lines; the prices are on the new local highs.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12508

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: market supported by Kijun and Cloud
2/16/2017

Technical levels: support – 113.90, 113.60; resistance – 114.30, 114.80.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 113.90; SL — 113.60; TP1 — 114.40; TP2 — 114.80.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but Senkou Span A and B are horizontal; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the support of Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12509

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "V-Bottom" launched bullish correction
2/16/2017

The price faced a support at 1.0522, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.0588 – 1.0578.

There’s a “V-Bottom”, which led to the current upward correction. Bulls found a resistance on the 55 Moving Average, but the pair is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.0655 – 1.0658. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, there’s an option to have a decline towards a support at 1.0588 – 1.0578 afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12510

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bulls going to test the next resistance
2/16/2017

Bears faced a support at 1.2386, so there’s a “V-Bottom” pattern, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue moving up towards a resistance at 1.2509 – 1.2548. If a pullback from this area happens, the price will probably try to test the 89 Moving Average.

We’ve got a “V-Bottom”, so the price is consolidating under the 34 Moving Average. In this case, bulls are likely going to test a resistance at 1.2509 – 1.2538 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.2486 -1.2458.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12511

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Thursday, February 16th
2/16/2017

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 171 762 ? + 256 923 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0630; 1.0665; 1.0692; 1.0726
Closest support levels 1.0600; 1.0574; 1.0558; 1.0535
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Long EUR/USD above 1.0630, with target points at 1.0665 and 1.0692
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0600 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0574 and 1.0558

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 89 ? + 560 ?
Closest resistance levels 114.19; 114.52; 114.69; 114.92
Closest support levels 113.55; 113.28; 112.92; 112.51
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 113.55, with target points at 113.28 and 112.92
Alternative scenario Moving above 114.19 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 114.52 and 114.69

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bullish
Changes in the open interest - 252 ? - 27 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3084; 1.3104; 1.3125; 1.3161
Closest support levels 1.3031; 1.2994; 1.2945; 1.2882
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3031, with the target points at 1.2994 and 1.2945
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3084 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3104 and 1.3125

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12512

 

[riki143]

Trading strategy with fractals
2/16/2017

Fractals are the technical tools helping to predict a reversal of the dominant trend. A fractal pattern consists of 5 consecutive bars positioned in the predefined order. There are two types of fractals.

Bearish fractal

A reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend occurs when the highest bar is located in the middle of the pattern and the two bars with lower highs on each side.

Bullish fractal

A reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend occurs when the lowest bar is positioned in the middle of the pattern with the two higher lows on each side.

Fractals are known as breakout points since they highlight the points at which prices fail to hold and reverse. Fractals are very useful trading tools that help to identify powerful resistance and support levels. Also, they are very handy in the lineation of trends.

There is a countless number of trading strategies using fractals for confirmation of the trend, for identification of the trend reversals. In this article, we decided to present one of the most effective trading strategies in which fractals are used to pinpoint profitable entries.

“Key ingredients”

Timeframe – hourly charts are preferable, but you can also use this strategy on the daily, weekly, 4H timeframes.

Currency pairs – no specific recommendations; the strategy suits to all currency crosses.

Trading session – any

Trading tools:

50 exponential moving average (thereafter 50 EMA)

Bill Williams Fractal indicator

“Rules of the game”


For short trades:

prices are moving below the 50 EMA;
a bearish fractal should be formed near the 50 EMA line;
look for a formation of the bearish candlestick pattern or any other signal to confirm the trade before going short at the close of the fifth bar;
if the trade is confirmed, you are allowed to open short position at the close of the fifth bar and place stop loss 33 pips above the middle candlestick (the highest point of the fractal pattern).

For long trades:

prices are moving above the 50 EMA;
a bullish fractal should be formed in the vicinity of the 50 EMA line;
use a bullish candlestick pattern for confirmation of your trade before going long;
if the trade is confirmed, you are allowed to open long position and place stop loss 3 pips below the fractal candlestick (the lowest point in the fractal pattern).


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12500

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Window" acting as a resistance
2/16/2017

We’ve got an “Engulfing” and a “Three White Soldiers”. Moreover, there’s a “Window”, which is acting as a resistance. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the next “Window” in the short term. If a pullback from this levels happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.

There’s a “Hanging Man” on the 89 Moving Average, but this pattern has a weak confirmation. So, the pair is likely going to get a support on the 55 Moving Average during the day. If we see a pullback from this line, bulls will probably try to test the 144 Moving Average.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12515

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bears going to test "Window"
2/16/2017

We’ve got a “Tweezers” and an “Engulfing” on the upper “Window”. At the same time, there’s an opportunity to have a local correction towards a resistance on the 89 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish price movement.

The 89 Moving Average is acting as a support, so we’ve got a bearish “Three Methods” pattern here. Therefore, the pair is likely going to get a support on the nearest “Window” during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12516

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave [ii] on the way
2/16/2017

Wave has been formed, so the price is rising. Previously wave 2 was ended like a zigzag. Therefore, bulls are likely going to deliver wave [ii] in the short term. The main intraday target is 8/8 MM Level.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a bearish impulse in wave . Meanwhile, wave [ii] is probably taking form of a zigzag. In this case, wave (a) is likely going to end during the day, so there’s an opportunity to have wave (b) soon.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12518

 

[riki143]

EUR/CAD reversed from strong support level 1.3830
2/16/2017

EUR/CAD reversed from strong support level 1.3830
Next buy target – 1.4270

EUR/CAD continues to rise following the earlier upward reversal from the strong support level 1.3830 (which reversed the previous impulse wave (i) with the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star, as can be seen from the weekly EUR/CAD chart below). The upward reversal from this support level stopped the earlier minor impulse wave (iii) from last December.

Given the oversold reading on the weekly Stochastic indicator - EUR/CAD is expected to rise to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.4270 (which reversed the pair in January).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12520

 

[riki143]

CAD/CHF reversed from resistance zone
2/16/2016

CAD/CHF reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 0.7600

CAD/CHF continues to fall after the recent sharp downward reversal from the powerful resistance zone lying between the key resistance level 0.7720 (which stopped the previous waves (2), (ii) and 2, as can be seen from the daily CAD/CHF charts below) and the upper daily Bollinger Band. If the price closes today near the current levels it will form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Double Doji Evening Star.

CAD/CHF is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 0.7600. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the aforementioned resistance level 0.7720.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12521

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound made friends with Wolfe waves
2/17/2017

On the GBP/USD daily chart, the triangle was formed. If quotes go beyond its upper boundary, it will increase the risks of continuation of the rally towards 1.26. In contrast, a successful test of the lower boundary of the triangle will send quotes towards 1.235.

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the signals we got from the Wolfe waves are realizing. A breakout of the resistance at 1.2516 can lead to the realization of 113% target in the "Shark" pattern. It is located near the 1.26 mark. There is a 1-4 wave near this target which indicates the presence of the convergence zone and creates prerequisites for the rebound.

Recommendation: SELL 1,26 SL 1,2655 TP 1,246.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12523