Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish "Shooting Star"
2/13/2017

We’ve got two “High Waves”, which have been confirmed enough. Also, there’s bearish “Engulfing”. If this pattern confirms, the market is likely going to test the nearest support, which could be a departure point for a local upward price movement.

The 55 Moving Average acted as a resistance, so we’ve got a “Shooting Star”, which has been confirmed. Therefore, bears are likely going to reach the nearest support in the short term.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12440

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Window" acted as support
2/13/2017

There’re a “Tweezers” and a “High Wave”, which both have been confirmed. The last candle couldn’t close below a support by the nearest “Window”. If any bullish pattern arrives later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement towards the closest resistance.

We’ve got a confirmed “Tweezers” at the local low. In this case, the market is likely going to continue moving up in the direction of the last high.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12441

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF: franc is losing its ground
2/13/2017

On the USD/CHF daily chart, a breakout of the upper boundary of the downward trading channel demonstrates the willingness of the bulls to gain the lead. A necessary condition for the restoration of the long-term uptrend is the ability of buyers to keep the quotes above the 1.004 level (38.2% level of the XC-wave in the "Shark" pattern).

On the USD/CHF hourly chart, target 1.004 on the previously formed longs has been fulfilled (BUY 0,9945 SL 0,989 TP 1,004). For the continuation of the rally, the "bulls" will need to test the resistances at 1.105 and 1.016.

Recommendation: BUY 0,998 SL 0,9925 TP1 1,016, TP2 1,024.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12442

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for February 13
2/13/2017

The US regained its mojo by the end of the past week mainly due to Trump’s hint of an extensive tax reform announcement. USD/JPY swung to 114.16 having initially declined to 112.85 after the Trump-Abe joint conference. The leaders refrained from arguing about Japan’s currency policies and focused on the easing in tensions between the US and Asian countries. In general, the meeting was held on a very friendly note. The current rebound in the USD/JPY may extend if prices manage to test 114.50.

The euro declined against its US counterpart to 1.0620 on France’s pre-election jitters.

Aussie and kiwi resisted the US dollar strength in the early hours of Asian session having. The AUD, however, ran out of steam very soon having fallen from 0.7690 to 0.7665, while NZD edged up to 0.7200.

USD/CAD spiked to 1.3120 but failed to hold its positions at that point, having slid to 1.3090.

Brent oil future dipped to $56.63 on Monday after strong gains last week on reports that OPEC members continue fulfilling their pledge under November agreement to slash production significantly.

GBP is trading sideways around 1.2500 level showing a particular resistance to the pound. GBP/USD will probably continue its consolidation in the range of 1.2350 – 1.2600 waiting for the official Brexit tempest.

The Economic calendar for today is very light. There is almost no news that could potentially become market drivers.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12444

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound ready to breakout
2/13/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2465; resistance – 1.2500, 1.2560.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2480; SL — 1.2460; TP1 — 1.2560; TP2 — 1.2590.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under the upper border of the Cloud.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12445

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: moving to Senkou Span B
2/13/2017

Technical levels: support – 113.60; resistance – 114.40, 114.80.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 113.60; SL — 113.40; TP1 — 114.40; TP2 — 114.80.

Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, rising Tenkan-sen; the prices are under Senkou Span B.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12446

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls going to test Moving Average
2/13/2017

Bears faced a support at 1.0619, so the price is consolidating. Therefore, the market is likely going to test a resistance at 1.0655 – 1.0669. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the nearest support at 1.0588 – 1.0578.

The price is moving in a flat’s range. At the same time, bulls are likely going to test the 34 Moving Average during the day. If we see a pullback from this line, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.0588 – 1.0578.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12448

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Double Bottom" pushing the market higher
2/13/2017

We’ve got a “V-Bottom”, so the pair is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2581 in the short term. If a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.2433 – 1.2411.

There’s a “Double Bottom”, so the price is consolidating. Therefore, bulls are likely going to reach a resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2581 shortly. Considering a possible pullback from this area. Bears will probably try to reach a support at 1.2458 – 1.2432.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12449

 

[riki143]

Is the US stocks rally just getting started?
2/13/2017

The US stocks hit record highs as investors assessed Trump’s pledge to overhaul business taxes in the upcoming weeks. The S&P 500 Index rose to a record 2,316.10, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved through 20, 270 having added 96.97 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index set new highs at 5,735 having added 0.33% on Friday. The investors are being exultant over reignition of stocks’ post-election rally which had stalled in recent weeks on concerns over Donald Trump’s protectionist executive orders and fuzzy perspectives for the tax reforms. Now, as hopes for massive cut tax and deregulation policies have been rekindled, the shares soar to their record highs blessing Mr. Trump for his pro-business policy agenda.

Source: Bloomberg.com

Many stock market analysts believe that Trump factor will favor the recent shares’ rally for a quite extended period of time. Trump is not a Republican neither he is a Democrat; he is a businessman who will not tolerate the US stock market dips and will try his best to heighten employment rates in the United States. So, his presidency might become the greatest boost for the stock market.

Some investors, however, voice their concerns over the everlasting rally in the US stocks saying that protectionist policies and insufficient partisan support for the Trump’s ambitious projections may wind down investors’ optimism.

Rating agencies are also skeptical with the regard to the uptick in the US companies’ growth. Over the last year, the average rating of some Dow Jones constituents has deteriorated from A+ to A (23 from 30 Dow components have been downgraded). This might have happened because of the fears of higher interest rates and their effect on company finances, or of Trump’s protectionist policies. But if Trump’s fiscal policies do become a real boost for the US economy, credit rating agencies will give in to investors’ positive forecasts and upgrade the ratings.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12450

 

[riki143]

Oil prices are still steady, but for how long
2/13/2017

Brent oil futures dipped to $56.40 as investors booked profits ahead of the OPEC’s monthly report that should reveal how well the member countries adhere to planned output cuts.

The oil prices have become vulnerable to any bearish news as the OPEC output cut is fully priced into the market. It seems that on Monday the equilibrium has been shattered and tilted to downside.

Negative fundamental factors:

* The US rig count rose in the precedent week. Baker Hughes reported on Friday, that drillers added 8 oil rigs in the week to February 10, bringing the total number of the US rigs to 591 (the highest number since October 2015).

Source: Investing.com

* Russian export volume is still high despite the production cuts. Russia participates in output reductions under November agreement. There are signs of Russian production cuts, but the exports are still high. Russians keep high export volume at the cost of lower domestic supply and by reducing their inventories.

* OPEC members voiced their concerns over further cut reduction. The longer and deeper their cuts, the more they cede market share to their competitors (the US drillers, for example, or other countries not participating in the global oil cut agreement).

Positive/nearly positive fundamental factors:

* According to the International Energy Agency report, OPEC implemented OPEC implemented 90% of promised output cuts last month. Non-OPEC members which voluntarily joined the agreement fulfilled their pledges by 50% (it’s a positive factor, but we must admit that full compliance with the agreement has not been achieved which indicates producers’ reluctance to lose their income and market share; there are always free riders among oil producers willing to cheat)

* Global oil demand is expected to rise in 2017

The factors listed above make us believe that the current oil prices rally is not long-lasting. It may end very soon once the reports start dispelling doubts about OPEC’s adherence.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12451

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave is about to end
2/13/2017

Wave is about to end. So, we could have a new low in the short term, but then bulls are likely going to deliver wave [ii]. In this case, we should keep an eye on 8/8 MM Level as a possible intraday target.

We’ve got two pullbacks from 1/8 MM Level in a row. Therefore, there’s an opportunity to have wave (v) of during the day. If a pullback from -2/8 MM Level happens, bulls will probably try to deliver an upward correction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12452

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Window" acted as a resistance
2/13/2017

We’ve got a “High Wave” and a “Harami”, which both have been confirmed enough. Therefore, the upper “Window” is likely going to act as a support. If so, bulls will probably try to test the nearest Moving Averages.

There’s a “Hammer” at the last low. However, we’ve got a local “Shooting Star”, but a confirmation of this patters is a quite weak. So, the market is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12454

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls going to test "Window"
2/13/2017

https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/12455/1302usdjpyH4.png[IMG]

We’ve got an “Inverted Hammer”, which led to the last upward price movement. At the same time, there’s a bearish “Harami”, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the nearest support. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to deliver a new local high.

[IMG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/12455/1302usdjpyH1.png

There’s a new “Window”, but we’ve got a “Shooting Star” at the last high. Considering a confirmation of this pattern, the price is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point to another bullish rally

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12455

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY broke daily Falling Wedge
2/13/2017

USD/JPY broke daily Falling Wedge
Next buy target – 115.00

USD/JPY continues to rise after the price earlier broke the resistance trendline of the daily Falling Wedge chart pattern from January. The breakout of this Falling Wedge continues the active minor impulse wave 3, which started earlier from the support area located between the pivotal supprt level 111.60 (which also reversed the price in November) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse 1 from November.

USD/JPY is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 115.00 (top of the previous minor (b)-wave from the end of January).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12456

 

[riki143]

NZD/CAD falling inside intermediate correction (2)
2/13/2017

NZD/CAD falling inside intermediate correction (2)
Next sell target - 0.9350

NZD/CAD continues to fall inside the intermediate correction (2) – which started earlier from the resistance zone lying between the pivotal resistance level 0.9630, (which also previously reversed the earlier wave (B) and 3), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp downward corrective wave ? from the start of November.

NZD/CAD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 0.9350 (target price calculated for the completion of the active correction (2)).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12457

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Tuesday, February 14th
2/14/2017

* Data about changes in the open interest will be available on Tuesday after 01:50 CT (Central Time) * UPDATED

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 73 973 ? + 309 848 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0617; 1.0645; 1.0680; 1.0706
Closest support levels 1.0594; 1.0572; 1.0554; 1.0529
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.0617, with target points at 1.0645 and 1.0680
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0594 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0572 and 1.0554
USD/JPY

https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/12462/USDJPY(94).png

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 122 ? - 164 ?
Closest resistance levels 113.69; 113.91; 114.23; 114.47
Closest support levels 113.46; 113.25; 112.94; 112.44
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 113.46, with target points at 113.25 and 112.94
Alternative scenario Moving above 113.69 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 113.91 and 114.23
USD/CAD

[IMG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/12462/USDCAD(108).png

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest - 146 ? + 13 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3075; 1.3101; 1.3127; 1.3167
Closest support levels 1.3045; 1.3006; 1.2972; 1.2927
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3075, with the target points at 1.3101 and 1.3127
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3045 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3006 and 1.2972
More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12462

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: the pound cannot define its future path
2/14/2017

On the GBP/USD daily chart, there is a consolidation in the range of 1.234-1.258. To restore the bullish trend, the bulls will need to test the resistance at 1.264 and 1.268.

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, there are two scenarios for the pound.

1. A breakout of the resistance at 1.258, followed by the rally towards 1.263 and rollback to 1.258 will be a signal of the bulls' weakness. This will allow us to sell the pound.

2. Formation of the second shoulder of the "Head and shoulders" pattern, followed by the return of quotes to the neckline can lead to the restoration of the long-term bearish trend.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12463

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: bulls are aware of the presence of Shark
2/14/2017

On the AUD/USD daily chart, bulls are still struggling to fulfill the target 88.6% in the "Shark" inverted pattern. If they manage to do it, the rally towards 113% target will continue. The nearest support is located near the 0.7605 level.

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, a successful test of the resistance at 0.769 will allow the "bulls" to push the quotes beyond the consolidation range at 0.7605-0.769. This may lead to the fulfillment of the target 200% in the AB = CD pattern.

Recommendation: BUY 0,769 SL 0,7635 TP 0,779.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12464

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for February 14
2/14/2017

Janet Yellen is ready to testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report

The US dollar took a hit in the course of the Asian after Trump’s National Security Advisor Michael Flynn stepped down. The euro gained some strength having risen to 1.0610 against the greenback. Today’s focus will be on the first of Janet Yellen’s two semi-annual Congressional testimonies. She is expected to reiterate her message from her recent speech that the economy is close to full employment and inflation rates have heightened a bit (remaining short of the Fed’s coveted target, however). Janet Yellen will likely struggle to offer concrete guidance outside of the existing gradual approach to reducing the extent of accommodative policies having taken into account the fact that the timing of Trump’s expansionary fiscal policy is still unknown. Some Congress members might be quizzing her on the prospects of seeking reappointment after the expiration of her term next January.

GBP/USD went higher on the session. Market participants should keep an eye on the UK’s latest inflation data coming at 11:30 MT time. After the recent comments of MPC member Kristen Forbes these figures will probably become a real object of interest. Last week she said that the faster growth of the inflation rates won’t be welcomed by some of the BoE’s officials. From the past meeting, it became clear that the bank is not going to raise rates anytime soon, but if CPI data does spring an upside surprise the British pound may get a substantial lift.

AUD/USD spiked to 0.7680 in the early hours of the session due to the strong business conditions and confidence data that showed the best result in almost three years. Copper extended its rally climbing 0.6% to the highest since May 2015. Iron ore prices have also made some gains on Tuesday having climbed to its highest levels since August 2014.

USD/CAD dropped to 1.3045 having extended its yesterday’s losses. The economic calendar was light, so the real focus was on the Canadian PM Trudeau’s trip to Washington. The US President’s comment on the future US-Canada trade relationships was reassuring for the Canadian dollar. Oil prices have pared their recent losses. Brent oil futures rose to $55.66 on OPEC-led efforts to cut production.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12465

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Double Bottom" led to upward movement
2/14/2017

Bears faced a support at 1.0588, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom”, which pushed the price to a resistance at 1.0619. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.0655. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.0588 – 1.0578.

The price is consolidating along the nearest support at 1.0588. In this case, the pair is likely going to reach the nearest resistance at 1.0619 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from this level, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.0588 – 1.0578.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12466