Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bears going to break trend
12/12/2016

The price faced a support at 1.2556, which was strengthened by the local uptrend. Therefore, bears are likely going to achieve the 89 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be a chance to have a bullish price movement in the direction of the 34 Moving Average.

We’ve got a consolidation, which is taking place near the 89 Moving Average. Considering the previously formed “Double Top” pattern, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.2530 – 1.2507. If we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.2630.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11673

 

[riki143]

Forecasts for EUR/USD from banks
12/12/2016

The ECB’s recent monetary policy decision is reinforcing the risk of the euro slumping to the parity against the US dollar. The ECB President Mario Draghi said on Thursday that the bank is going to extend its asset purchasing program beyond March trimming its size to 60 bln euros since April. The good thing is that the ECB has no intention of tapering towards its zero bound and that it is ready to increase its bond purchases instead if necessary.

There are some recent analysts’ forecasts for EUR/USD.

MUFG believes that EUR/USD is poised to trading lower as ECB sounded more dovish than it was expected.

BNP Paribas expects EUR/USD to extend its losses and target 1.04 by the end of Q1 2017.

Danske bank expects EUR/USD to trade within 1.05 – 1.10 range with a risk of a break to the downside.

Societe Generale is very eloquent and creative this week in its forecasts for the US dollar comparing its future movement with the flight of Icarus. The bank’s strategists don’t question the further USD strengthening pointing at the potential effects of tax cuts and faster monetary tightening. But they also warn traders of a potential reverse. As soon as the dollar flies to its new high, its further growth may be stalled. Political concerns over upcoming numerous elections may ease eventually and push the euro higher. SocGen believes that EUR/USD should trough around parity before the French elections, unless Marin le Pen, the leader of the far-right party wins the presidency (in this scenario, the euro is doomed to fall even lower).

We would recommend you to keep in focus the support located at 1.0500. if it’s broken, the euro may fall even further. The rebound from this level allows the euro to move higher and partially recoup its losses.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11675

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls going to test the "Window"
12/12/2016

There’s a “Harami” pattern, so the market is likely going test the 55 Moving Average and the nearest “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got a pullback from the closest support. Also, there’s a possible “Piercing Line”, so if this pattern confirms, bulls will probably try to form a local upward correction.

We’ve got a “Hammer” pattern, which has been confirmed enough. So, the price is rising and there’re some bullish patterns as well. In this case, the pair is likely going to reach the upper “Window” in the short term. If a pullback from it happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an intraday decline.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11677

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bearish "Harami"
12/12/2016

The last “Three Methods” pattern led to an upward price movement. Considering that bulls faced a resistance level, the market is likely going to form a local bearish correction. As we can see on the Daily chart, the middle of huge white candle acted as a support, so we’ve got a new high. At the same time, there’s an opportunity to see more bullish pressure in the short term.

We’ve got a “Harami” at the local high. If this pattern confirms, bears are likely going to achieve the nearest resistance, which could be a departure point for another upward price movement.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11678

 

[riki143]

AUD/JPY reached buy target 86.00
12/12/2016

AUD/JPY reached buy target 86.00
Next buy target – 87.70
AUD/JPY today broke sharply above the pivotal resistance level 86.00 (which reversed the earlier minor correction 2 at the end of April and which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of this resistance level 86.00 will, most certainly, accelerate the active impulse waves 5 and (C) - both of which belong to the primary ABC correction ?.

AUD/JPY is expected to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 87.70 (intersecting with the resistance trendline of the wide daily up channel from June).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11679

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY rising inside sharp (C)-wave
12/12/2016

USD/JPY rising inside sharp (C)-wave
Next buy target - 118.00
USD/JPY continues to rise after the pair recently broke through the resistance zone surrounding the strong resistance level 114.00 (which earlier reversed the price multiple times in March and which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of this resistance level accelerated the active intermediate (C)-wave of the primary ABC correction ? from June.

USD/JPY is expected to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 118.00 (target price for the completion of the active ABC correction ?).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11680

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD & UK CPI for November: A merry christmas for the Pound?
12/13/2016

Today at 09:30 GMT will be released the UK CPI (Inflation Rate) for November, following a gain of 0.9% in October, which was a slightly-than-expected data from the 1% posted in September. Market’s analysts are expecting an increase to 1.1%, which should help to boost the Sterling across the board and it’s likely to happen, despite the weakness seen on the GBP after Brexit’s referendum and recent talks about a possible “hard Brexit”.

Our technical analysis for GBP/USD at H4 chart is showing a bullish’s strengthening in the short-term, as the pair had been following a trend line plotted from October 25th lows, which also acts as a strong dynamic support. Now, the pair is facing a solid resistance around 1.2694, where a breakout higher should open the doors to test the 1.2765 level, followed by the 1.2800 handle. In the bearish scenario, if GBP/USD does a pullback at the current stage, then it can plunge towards 1.2492, where is located the bullish trend line mentioned above.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11681

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Double Bottom" led to upward correction
12/13/2016

The price faced a support at 1.0552, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern, which led to an achievement of the 34 Moving Average. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.0708 – 1.0745 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline towards a support at 1.0655 – 1.0594.

There’s a consolidation, which is taking place between the 89 Moving Average and the nearest support at 1.0624. So, the pair is likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average during the day. Considering a possible pullback from this line, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.0666 – 1.0697 later on.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11682

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bulls going to test nearest resistance
12/13/2016

The pair found a support at 1.2556, which was strengthened by the uptrend. So, we’ve got a “Triple Bottom”, which led to the current consolidation. In this case, the market is likely going to test a resistance at 1.2770 – 1.2795. If we see a pullback from these levels, bears will probably try to reach a support at 1.2703 – 1.2672.

We’ve got a “V-Top” here, so the price is consolidating. Under this circumstances, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.2663 – 1.2647. However, if a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction in the direction of the closest resistance at 1.2703 – 1.2743.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11683

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: yen made a break
12/13/2016

On the USD/JPY daily chart, "bulls" failed to go beyond the upward trading channel. To restore the uptrend buyers need to update the December peak near the 116 level. If they succeed, target 161.8% in the "Crab" inverted pattern will be fulfilled.

https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11684/Screenshot_2016_12_13_08_20_29.png[IMG]

On the USD/JPY hourly chart, the "bulls" failed to go above 115.80. A successful test of this resistance will open the way to the north.

[IMG]https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11684/Screenshot_2016_12_13_08_20_51.png

Recommendations: hold longs formed from 114,75,

BUY 115,8 SL 115,25 TP1 117 TP2 118,4.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11684

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: Aussie came closer to the Rubicon
12/13/2016

On the AUD/USD daily chart, the bulls and bears continue to fight for the 0.749 level. If the "bulls" manage to hold prices above this level and test the resistance line at 0.76, the rally will continue in the direction of the lower border of the last upward trading channel. Alternatively, if "bears" win the fight for the 0.7490 level and test the support at 0.742, there can be a restoration of the downtrend.

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, a breakout of the resistance at 0.749 will push prices higher towards the 0.7545 and 0.757 levels, where the sellers should display an active attitude.

Recommendations:

SELL 0,7545 SL 0,76 TP 0,742,

SELL 0,757 SL 0,7625 TP 0,742.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11685

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for December 13
12/13/2016

EUR/USD retraced from the yesterday’s high of 1.0650 to 1.0630 and hung up there waiting for the Fed’s rate review. Today’s focus will be on German ZEW economic sentiment which is going to be upbeat according to the consensus forecast. The release will be followed by the US import prices.

We will know tomorrow whose side Yellen is on

GBP/USD continues to trade in a choppy manner. Yesterday the pair made a big swing to 1.2695, then fell to 1.2670. Later today we will get the data on the UK inflation. It may dislodge the pound from its lofty perch as CPI is expected to rise in November.

USD/JPY ticked up in the course of the Asian session. Higher yields and anticipation of the rate hike are lifting the dollar. Now the pair is meandering in the narrow range of 115.25 – 114.70. There is no news from Japan; the pair is poised to trade sideways for a while, as the strong upward momentum is waning out.

AUD/USD slid down to 0.7490 as we got a bit disappointing data reports from Australia. Business conditions decreased from +6.6 points to +5.3, while business confidence popped from +4.3 points to +5.0 (the gauge indicate a rise, but it’s still below the average). Chines Industrial production data was upbeat. Investment went in line with expectation. Aussie reacted with a green blip and then continued to fall.

NZD/USD spiked to 0.7205 yesterday, but this sign of sudden strength fizzled out eventually.

Brent crude oil futures fell down to $55.60 after surging on Monday to their 1.5-year high on the back of a weekend output cut agreement signed by OPEC and non-OPEC producers.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11686

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears have won
12/13/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.0590; resistance – 1.0695.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.0690; SL — 1.0710; TP1 — 1.0590; TP2 – 1.0560.

Reason: bearish narrow Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; all lines of Ichimoku Indicator are horizontal; strong resistance of Kijun-sen and Senkou Span A.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11687

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: on the Cloud’s support
12/13/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2670, 1.2625; resistance – 1.2730.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2630; SL — 1.2610; TP1 — 1.2730; TP2 — 1.2750.

Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a strong support of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the Cloud’s upper border.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11688

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: trading in the Cloud will continue
12/13/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7470; resistance – 0.7525.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 0.7525; SL — 0.7445; TP1 — 0.7470; TP2 — 0.7440.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud and falling Senkou Span B; a weak golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under the resistance of Senkou Span B.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11689

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Tuesday, December 13th
12/13/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 15 307 ? + 119 816 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0686; 1.0725; 1.0757; 1.0780
Closest support levels 1.0627; 1.0605; 1.0575; 1.0556
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0627, with target points at 1.0605 and 1.0575
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0686 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0725 and 1.0757

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 12 ? + 61 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2731; 1.2757; 1.2791; 1.2814
Closest support levels 1.2666; 1.2646; 1.2615; 1.2587
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2666, with target points at 1.2646 and 1.2615
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2731 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2757 and 1.2791

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 264 ? + 372 ?
Closest resistance levels 115.50; 115.93; 116.33; 116.58
Closest support levels 114.05; 113.28; 112.79; 112.20
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 115.50, with the target points at 115.93 and 116.33
Alternative scenario Moving below 114.05 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 113.28 and 112.79

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11690

 

[riki143]

Some forecasts ahead of the BOE meeting
12/13/2016

On Thursday at 7 am 12:00 GMT+2 the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision. Many strategists believe that the BoE will maintain its current monetary stance unchanged in line with consensus forecasts and market pricing. The focus will be on the minutes as there won’t be a press conference and updated inflation report. At the November meeting, the BOE shifted from an easing bias to a neutral bias saying that the bank is ready to respond in either direction.

Today we got upbeat inflation data from the UK. The year-to-year CPI rate rose to 1.4% from 0.9%. The core rate ticked up to 1.4% in November. Average weekly earnings are expected to be steady. There shouldn’t be any changes in the unemployment rate as well (it is currently at its cyclical low level of 4.8%). The number of jobless claims is expected to decrease (positive impact on the currency). Signs of strong wage and price growth, strong labor data may push the board to shift its monetary outlook to the hawkish side. Despite strong economic data, the BOE will unlikely recourse to tightening at this meeting because of the elevated political uncertainty over the “Brexit” process. Go through the highlights of the BOE Governor Mark Carney speech tomorrow. The main topic of his speech has nothing to do with the BOE's monetary policy, but we would recommend to keep it in focus. Who knows, maybe Carney gives us some clues on Thursday's interest rate decision.

On Thursday, the pound may experience some additional pressure. The leaders of EU countries minus Theresa May for the first time will discuss the process of negotiation with the UK. The communique of the meeting should formalize how the EU members conduct themselves in the next 2 years. So, this document may send some wobbles to the technical charts with GBP. If the EU countries will adopt a tough stance toward the UK, the pound may be seriously hit.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11692

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish "Tweezers"
12/13/2016

There’s a resistance by the nearest “Window”, so we’ve got a bearish “Harami”. If this pattern confirms, bears are likely going to deliver a local downward correction. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got a bullish “Engulfing” pattern, so there’s an opportunity to have an upward correction in the short term.

We’ve got a “Tweezers” and a “Doji”, but a confirmation of these patterns is a quite weak. In this case, the market is likely going to test the nearest support area. If we see a pullback from it, bulls will probably try to break the last high.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11693

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Engulfing" points to local decline
12/13/2016

There’s a bearish “Harami”, which has been confirmed enough. However, the 13 Moving Average acted as a support. So, bears are likely going to test the nearest resistance once again. If any bearish pattern arrives afterwards. there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “Shooting Star”, but this pattern doesn’t have a confirmation. Therefore, a bearish correction is going to start soon.

We’ve got a “Harami” on the 34 Moving Average. Considering a confirmation of this pattern and a bearish “Engulfing”, the market is likely going to test the closest support line. If a pullback happens afterwards, bulls will have a chance to deliver another upward price movement.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11694

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave [ii] going to end
12/13/2016

We’ve got a bearish impulse in wave . Previously, wave 2 formed like a flat. Therefore, there’s an opportunity to have wave [ii] in the short term. At the same time, if the price finds a lodgement under -1/8 MM Level afterwards, bears are likely going to deliver wave [iii] of 3.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, we’ve got a bullish impulse in wave (a). Therefore, when wave (b) ends, the market is likely going to rise in wave (c) of [ii]. The main intraday target is 3/8 MM Level.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11697