Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: euro waits for a rollercoaster ride
12/8/2016

On the EUR/USD daily chart, there is a correction towards the downtrend. A breakout of the upper boundary of the bars, formed on December 5-6, will increase the risk of rollback towards 1,093. This mark corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level formed from the last downward wave.

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, an expanding wedge reversal pattern has been formed on the basis of the "Three Indians". A successful test of the resistance at 1,08-1,0815 will pave the way towards the 1.091-1.093 convergence area (50% Fibo level from the last downward wave and target 224% in the pattern AB = CD).

Recommendations:

BUY 1,0815 SL 1,076 TP 1,0925,

SELL 1,0925 SL 1,098 TP1 1,077 TP2 1,05.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11627

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for December 8, 2016
12/8/2016

The euro popped up with aplomb above 1.0770 from an early trough at 1.0750. The ECB decision followed by the press conference will be the main story over the next hours. Buckle up for a ride in EUR/USD. The ECB is expected to extend its asset-purchasing program. So, there is a downside risk in this currency pair, if market’s wagers on further easing are realized.

"So, what is the program for today? "

USD/JPY slid down below 113.30. Japanese economic releases were half-and-halfer. We got an upbeat current account data earlier this morning followed by weak Q3 GDP and final GDP price index readings. But as we’ve already noticed, the yen didn’t pay much heed to these disappointing headlines. Later on the session, we will receive the unemployment claims release from the US.

AUD/USD retreated in the early hours of the Asia session mainly due to the weak Australian trade balance release for Q4 (there was a tangible miss, much wider than expected). Also, we got some distortion in the Chinese trade balance data. At the present moment, the pair is trading along 0.7495 level having partially recovered its losses due to the gains that got bulk commodities overnight.

NZD/USD moved higher through the session (above 0.7208 mark). There was some upbringing news from the diary giant Fonterra; it was said that farmer payout this season will total $6.40 kg of milk solids. There won’t be any significant news that could thrill the land under Kiwi’s feet. So, you may switch to another, more volatile currency pair.

USD/CAD slumped below 1.3215. Brent futures made a baby step in the northern direction having added 3 cents to reach $53.03. Today’s focus will be on Canadian building permits and new houses price index.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11628

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: in correction to the Cloud
12/8/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2550; resistance – 1.2670, 1.2730.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.2670; SL — 1.2690; TP1 — 1.2600; TP2 — 1.2550.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud and horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a strong resistance of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11629

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: going to Senkou Span B
12/8/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7460; resistance – 0.7490, 0.7540.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7460; SL — 0.7440; TP1 — 0.7490; TP2 — 0.7540.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and rising Kijun-sen; the prices are breaking out strong resistance of 0.7490.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11630

 

[riki143]

What will happen with the euro after the ECB meeting?
12/8/2016

Morgan Stanley’s strategists believe that the ECB will keep rates on hold at this week’s meeting, but can expand its QE purchase program. But they consider different scenarios with various responses from the euro.

Potential scenarios and the reaction of the euro.

1. QE purchases extension for 6 months after March. This expansion is well priced in by the market participants, so, it wouldn’t be surprising for markets. The reaction of EUR/USD should be restrained. To extend purchases and leave an expectation in the market that they could extend again, the ECB should introduce some changes to its present program. Which kind of changes?

- The ECB may announce that it is not going to use the capital key to allocate purchases. This option will be positive for periphery countries of the Eurozone, but bad for the German bund. The reaction of the euro should be positive in this case. The ECB may not express itself explicitly, it can only hint that it is going to be flexible (in this case the euro’s reaction won’t be stormy). If the ECB is more explicit, the euro may react with some moves.

- The ECB can recourse to buying bonds below the deposit rate. This decision will be negative for the euro.

- The ECB may commit itself to changing the maximum limit on buying per issuer. This approach should be bullish for German bund curve. EUR/USD will fall, if there is a larger decrease in bund yields than US Treasury yields.

- The ECB may address the scarcity of bonds. If there is a rise in short end rates (it would dissipate fears over the bond scarcity), the euro may gather momentum.

2. The ECB announces the cut of its interest rate. This scenario is not expected by the market. If it is realized, EUR/USD should fall significantly.

3. ECB decides to extend its QE purchases by more than 6 months beyond March. This option is not expected by the market. EUR/USD will be poised to weakening.

4. ECB doesn’t change its policy stance. This approach will cause German bunds to rise substantially and push EUR higher.

5. ECB extends corporate bond purchases, but not government bond. Basically, in this case, the ECB will commit to the tapering of the bond purchasing program. This scenario is unlikely, and if it’s realized, it will be positive for EUR.

The ECB meeting will be held on Thursday, December 8.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11596

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Thursday, December 8th
12/8/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 62 814 ? + 99 575 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0775(?); 1.0797; 1.0817; 1.0844
Closest support levels 1.0748; 1.0720; 1.0696; 1.0666
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0748, with target points at 1.0720 and 1.0696
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0775 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0797 and 1.0817

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 174 ? + 251 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2634; 1.2658; 1.2683; 1.2717
Closest support levels 1.2608; 1.2567; 1.2533; 1.2491
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2634, with target points at 1.2658 and 1.2683
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2608 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2567 and 1.2533

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 447 ? + 713 ?
Closest resistance levels 113.86; 114.03; 114.56; 115.06
Closest support levels 113.56; 113.25; 112.80; 112.27
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 113.56, with the target points at 113.25 and 112.80
Alternative scenario Moving above 113.86 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 114.03 and 114.56

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11635

 

[riki143]

Review on David Powell’s book
12/8/2016

Perhaps every trader has his “favorite” currency, the one that brought him lots of money. If you prefer trading currency pairs containing EUR, you’d probably be interested in reading “The trader’s guide to the euro area” written by the chief euro area economist at Bloomberg – David Powell. It’s a very compact and readable book for those who want to get a comprehensive overview of trading-related aspects of the euro area. With this information, you will be able to analyze the recent economic developments in the euro area and predict which impact they may have on your financial assets.

The first chapters of the book focus on the leading economic indicators of the euro area. The author explains how the variations in the headlines of the Eurozone economic releases may influence the exchange rate of the euro. The subsequent chapters allow you to know more about the structure of the Euro area – its institutions, composition, operation. Next chapter tells us the story of the euro crisis – its origin, developments. Also, it describes the measures undertaken by the ECB to overcome the consequences of the crisis. Having read this part, you will know about the transmission channels of the ECB monetary policies. So, this chapter is perhaps the most valuable in the books, because with its help you will be able to readily respond to the ECB announcements (without tardy fundamental analysis of the market’s strategists). You know, time is money. It may be no accident that many successful, affluent traders are those people who are well-educated, hungry for knowledge and insatiable of learning.

The final chapters contain the information about the particularities/characteristics of German, French economies (key Eurozone countries) as well as the economies of the UK, Switzerland, Sweden, and Norway. So, with these concluding chapters, you will know not only about the trade relating aspects of the euro area but also about the analytical tools for GBP, CHF, NOK currencies.

DOWNLOAD THE BOOK

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11636

 

[riki143]

Banks' guidance ahead of the ECB meeting
12/8/2016

It seems that everything is clear the ECB will extend its asset-purchasing program, and send the euro lower. But banks smell a rat in this announcement. The ECB should introduce more easing measures, but it may simultaneously point to the possibility of tapering asset purchases in 2017. And that’s what makes us uneasy. How to decipher this ambiguous announcement?

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11637

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bullish "Flag"
12/8/2016

The price is consolidating under the 89 Moving Average. Also, there’s a “Flag” pattern, so the market is likely going to continue rising towards a resistance at 1.0815 – 1.0850. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another test of the 89 Moving Average.

We’ve got a pullback from the 34 Moving Average, so bulls are likely going to reach a resistance at 1.0795 – 1.0815 in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.0745 afterwards.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11638

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bulls going to test high
12/8/2016

There’s a “V-Bottom”, which led to the current upward price movement. In this case, the market is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.2770 – 1.2795 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be an opportunity to have a downward correction.

We’ve got a “Double Bottom”, which has been confirmed. The 34 Moving Average is acting as a resistance. So, the pair is likely going to rise towards the next resistance at 1.2734 – 1.2770. If bulls be stopped here, bears will have a chance to test a support at 1.2672.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11639

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave 2 going to be continued
12/8/2016

The price is still rising, so wave 2 could take a form of a flat. In this case, an impulse in wave [c] is likely going to be continued. Therefore, we should keep an eye on 2/8 MM Level as a possible intraday target.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, we’ve got a bullish impulse in wave (iii) in progress. So, the market is likely going to continue rising in the short term. If +2/8 MM Level appears to be broken, we’re going to have another Murrey Math indication.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11640

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish "Harami"
12/8/2016

The price is still rising, so we don’t have any reversal pattern so far. In this case, bulls are likely going to move on towards the nearest “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last “Harami” wasn’t confirmed, so the market is likely going to continue moving up.

Bulls are still here, but we’ve got a “Harami” at the local high. If this pattern confirms, the pair is likely going to form a local correction. At the same time, there’s an opportunity to have another high afterwards.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11641

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Window" going to act as a support
12/8/2016

We’ve got an “Engulfing”, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, the price is likely going to decline towards the nearest “Window”. If any bullish pattern forms later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, the current correction is likely going to test the “Window” nearby.

The 13 Moving Average has acted as a resistance, so we’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern. In this case, the price is likely going to decline in the direction of the closest support. Meanwhile, if any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, bulls will probably try to deliver an upward correction.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11642

 

[riki143]

Day trading strategies
12/8/2016

Day traders are those who enter into and exit positions several times per day. Their biggest pet peeve Is holding trading positions overnight. They are more concerned with finishing the day without an open position than the actual result of the trade itself. Day traders use a combination of both technical and fundamental analysis. So, if you refer yourself to these traders, you might be interested in the following strategies.

GAWK THE TALK

Key ingredients:

Timeframe: 15-minutes and 30-minutes (news is usually released within the 15-min intervals).

Strategy is suitable for all currencies

Strategy concept:

We compare the forecasted figures with the actual figures. For this strategy, traders go long on the chosen currency when actual figures of the release are much greater than forecasted ones. For example, the Reserve Bank of Australia raises its benchmark. In this case, we should go long on the AUD/USD.

Long trade setup

You should take following steps to execute the gawk the talk strategy for long.

Choose an affected currency to trade the news.
Enter long on NZD/USD once the actual figure released is ahead of expectations (if it is higher than the forecasted figure by 20% or more).
Set a stop loss of 20 pips from the entry price.
A profit target should be placed 40 pips higher from the entry price.
The risk for this trade is 20 pips, the reward is 40 pips. The risk to reward ratio is 1:2 (you can expect 6% return from a 3% risk).

BALK THE TALK

In forex life, everything is topsy-turvy. Even if the news is very bad, you can still earn whaling sums of money. For this strategy, we go short on the certain currency (hit by the news) when actual figures are lower than forecasted ones by a minimum factor of 20%. The “key ingredients” for this strategy are the same we had for gawk the talk strategy.

For example, we get a negative GDP for the US. What we should do is to initiate a short trade on the USD/CAD. We set a stop loss of 20 pips from the entry price and a profit target of 40 pips from the entry price.

The risk for this trade is 20 pips, and the reward is 40 pips. The risk to reward ratio is 1:2 (you may gain a tidy 6% return haven taken a 3% risk).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11643

 

[riki143]

NZD/JPY reached buy target 81.00
12/8/2016

NZD/JPY reached buy target 81.00
Next buy target – 83.30
NZD/JPY has been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the minor impulse wave (v) – which recently broke through the resistance level 81.00 (which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the resistance level 81.00 follows the earlier breakout of the resistance levels 79.00 (intersecting with the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from June) and 80.00.

With the daily Momentum near the yearly highs - NZD/JPY can be expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the resistance level 83.30 (forecast price calculated for the termination of the active impulse wave C).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11644

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD reached sell targets 1.3350 and 1.3270
12/8/2016

USD/CAD reached sell targets 1.3350 and 1.3270
Next sell target - 1.3100
USD/CAD continues to fall after the recent breakout of the support zone lying between the support levels 1.3350 and 1.3270 (both of these support levels were set as the sell targets in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). This support zone was further strengthened by the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from the middle of October.

USD/CAD is expected to fall further in the accelerated C-wave (of the intermediate ABC correction (4) from November) in the direction of the next sell target at the support level 1.3100, intersecting with the support trendline of the wide daily up channel from May.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11645

 

[riki143]

Gold is tired of moving in the range
12/9/2016

On the daily chart of gold, the "bears" remain control over the market. As long as quotes are below $ 1,195, their positions are not under threat. The update of the December low can lead to the continuation of downward movement towards $1,116 (78.6% Fibo retracement level formed from the last mid-term wave) and $1,095 (161.8% target in the Crab pattern).

On the hourly chart of gold, there is a consolidation in the range of $1,160-1,195. Traders may expect a breakout of its upper or lower boundaries.

Recommendations:

SELL $1160 SL $1180 TP1 $1116

TP2 $1095, BUY $1195 SL $1175 TP $1230.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11646

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD: bulls are struggling for the trend
12/9/2016

On the NZD/USD daily chart, "bulls" are trying to regain the initiative and to restore the uptrend. The 5-0 pattern is still relevant, however, so the rollbacks in the direction of 50% and 61.8% Fibo levels formed from the CD wave or return to the neckline of "Head and shoulders" pattern can be used for opening short positions.

On the NZD/USD hourly chart, a correction towards 50% and 61.8% Fibo levels, and the return of prices to 23.6% of the expanding wedge and 5-0 patterns can be used for opening long positions. If the resistance at 0.7335 is broken, there can be restoration of "bullish" trend.

Recommendations:

SELL 0,7187 SL 0,7242 TP 0,704,

SELL 0,7072 SL 0,7127 TP 0,686.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11647

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for December 9, 2016
12/9/2016

EUR/USD slumped to 1.0585 yesterday after ECB trimmed the size of its asset-purchasing program, but extended it for longer than it was expected. Draghi’s message was ambivalent – reducing bond buying while extending the current purchase program beyond March 2017 (till April 2017 with 80 bln per month followed by 60 bln for the rest for the year or even further if needed). This made investors scattering to and fro as they were trying to digest implications of such actions. Today’s focus will be on the US preliminary UoM consumer sentiment.

USD/JPY moved higher (above 114.5) in the early hours of the Asian session amid a retreat from haven currencies, then, the yen gained momentum due to Japan’s upbeat BSI manufacturing index and M2 money stock having dragged the pair towards 114.25.

AUD/USD changed only a little in the course of the Asian session. First it dropped to 0.7441, then, managed to erase its losses having climbed to 0.7463 due to strong China’s inflation readings. China’s consumer price index advanced 2.3% from a year ago. Producer price index soared 3.3% in the 12 months through November.

GBP/USD is consolidating in the range of 1.2568 – 1.2594 after Thursday’s precipitous downfall to 1.2547. Later today traders will receive the UK goods trade balance data, construction output, and consumer inflation expectations which should offer some support to the pound if the market’s forecasts are fulfilled.

USD/CAD moved lower yesterday due to the surging oil prices. They managed to rebound to from $52.90 to $54.10 just in two days on growing optimism that non-OPEC producers might agree to cut output in the aftermath of the cartel agreement to curb oil production.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11648

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: trading in the Cloud may continue
12/9/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.0590; resistance – 1.0720.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0620; SL — 1.0600; TP1 — 1.0720; TP2 – 1.0760.

Reason: bullish mood of Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen but the rising Kijun-sen; the prices are on the support of Senkou Span A.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11650