Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

AUD/USD reached buy target 0.7440
11/25/2016

AUD/USD reached buy target 0.7440
Next buy target - 0.7500
AUD/USD today reached the resistance level 0.7440 (which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The price has been rising in the last few trading sessions inside the second minor corrective wave 2 which started earlier – when the pair reversed up from the support zone surrounding the powerful support level 0.7310.

If the pair closes this week above the resistance level 0.7440 - AUD/USD can then be expected to rise further to the next buy target at the key resistance level 0.7500 (standing close to the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 from the start of this month).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11470

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave [iv] ended
11/25/2016

There’s a bearish impulse in wave 1. It’s likely that wave [iv] is going to end soon. If so, bears will probably try to break -2/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). In this case, we’ll have a new levels’ indication on the chart.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a possible zigzag in wave [iv]. Therefore, if wave (i) arrives afterwards, there’ll an opportunity to have a new low shortly. The nearest target is -2/8 MM Level.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11471

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Monday, November 28th
11/28/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest - 668 ? - 76 513 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0614; 1.0640; 1.0665; 1.0703
Closest support levels 1.0571; 1.0542; 1.0522; 1.0497
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0571, with target points at 1.0542 and 1.0522
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0614 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0640 and 1.0665


GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 32 ? - 103 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2487(97?); 1.2527; 1.2548; 1.2574
Closest support levels 1.2461; 1.2441; 1.2421; 1.2387
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2461, with target points at 1.2441 and 1.2421
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2487 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2527 and 1.2548

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 40 ? + 3 957 ?
Closest resistance levels 113.38; 113.60; 114.00; 114.27
Closest support levels 113.07; 112.57; 112.15; 111.86
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 113.07, with the target points at 112.57 and 112.15
Alternative scenario Moving above 113.38 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 113.60 and 114.00


USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 119 ? + 298 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3526; 1.3550; 1.3578; 1.3617
Closest support levels 1.3506(12?); 1.3479; 1.3454; 1.3416
Trading recommendations
Scenario 1 Long USD/CAD above 1.3526, with the target points at 1.3550 and 1.3578
Scenario 2 Short USD/CAD below 1.3506, with the target points at 1.3479 and 1.3454

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11472

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD & Draghi Testimony: Looking for the parity zone?
11/28/2016

Today at 14:00 GMT, ECB’s President Mario Draghi will testify once again from Brussels and we should remind that his latest speech was dovish, which helped the Euro to post new yearly lows across the board. Draghi already made remarks about downside disk that are weighing on Eurozone’s economy and his dovish rhetoric could remain present during this testimony, ahead of last ECB’s meeting in 2016.

Our technical overview for EUR/USD at H1 chart remains strongly bearish, as the pair is following a second-degree bearish trend line plotted from November 17th and it’s expected to pullback towards the 1.0527 level. As long as the EUR/USD pair remains below the 200 SMA, further declines are likely to happen in order to break new supports, because all targets are pointing to a possible parity in the mid-term. However, if Draghi’s words have some hawkish tone, it could rise towards the 1.0645 level.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11473

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls are going to start counter-attack
11/28/2016

On the EUR/USD daily chart, there is the long-awaited correction towards the downtrend. We can consider the surge in quotes in the course of the trading session on November 9 as the market noise; the extent of the rollback can be measured with the Fibonacci retracement levels. Nearest resistance levels are located at 1,0757-1,077 and 1,083.

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, for the development of counter-attack in the direction of the 113% target in the "Shark" reversal pattern, "bulls" should test the current resistance at 1.0665. If they fail to do so, there can be the restoration of the downtrend.

Recommendations:

SELL 1,077 SL 1,0825 TP1 1,04 TP2 1,022

SELL 1,083 SL 1,0885 TP1 1,04 TP2 1,022.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11474

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: Aussie saw a "Bat"
11/28/2016

On the AUD/USD daily chart, there is a correction towards downtrend. A break of the resistance at 0.7485 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the last wave) can lead to the continuation of the rally towards 0.754 and 0.76. In contrast, the rebound can lead to the restoration of the "bearish" trend.

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, there are senior patterns of the expanding wedge, 5-0, and the minor "Bat" reversal pattern . Target 88.6% from the last downward wave is located near the 0.755 level. There is also the 50% Fibonacci retracement level formed from the last downward wave. If "bulls" fail to test it, it will be a signal for the sales.

Recommendations: 0,755 SL 0,7615 TP1 0,73 TP2 0,715.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11475

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for November 28, 2016
11/28/2016

USD/JPY slumped to 111.3 from its 8-month high of 113.90 in the course of the latest session as the yields on 10-year US Treasuries slipped down to 2.323 from its 16-month high of 2.417. The pair may rebound from the present level to the nearest resistances at 112.21 (100-hour MA) and 113.00 (50-hour MA). The nearest support lies around 111.10 (200-hour MA).

EUR/USD rose to 1.0685 having stepped into the Ichimoku cloud on the H4 technical chart. The prices may jump to the next resistance located at 1.0785 (100 H4 MA), or slide back towards the supports at 1.0590 (100-hour MA), 1.0580 (50-hour MA). Today traders will focus on Draghi’s testimony on the ECB’s perspective on economic and monetary developments before the European parliament. It seems that Draghi’s tone will be rather dovish. The ECB has not reached its inflation target yet, so, it’s far too early to discuss the tapering of the quantitative easing program, according to many ECB’s officials. The Governing Council will meet on December 8 to decide whether the ECB should extend its current QE program beyond the current deadline in March or not.

USD/CAD dropped towards the support located at 1.3455 (100 H4 MA). It seems that CAD didn’t pay too much heed to the tumbling oil prices. Brent oil futures and West Texas Intermediate crude slumped after Saudi Arabia withdrew from talks Monday with non-OPEC members.

AUD/USD breached the resistance located at 0.74600. Now it is paving its way towards the 0.7520 (near the 200-H4 MA) having gained momentum from the surging industrial metal prices. Kiwi rose above 0.7090 level in the course of the Asian on the broad USD weakening. But all these losses of the US dollar can be recouped in the nearest future, as there are lots of macroeconomic releases ahead.

I wish you a good session!

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11476

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: trading in the cloudy zone
11/28/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.0600; resistance – 1.0680.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0630; SL — 1.0610; TP1 — 1.0680; TP2 – 1.0735.

Reason: bearish mood of Ichimoku Cloud, but rising Senkou Span A; a new correctional golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen under the Cloud; the prices are in the Cloud.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11477

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: rising to Kijun
11/28/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7450; resistance – 0.7540.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7460; SL — 0.7440; TP1 — 0.7540.

2. Sell — 0.7540; SL — 0.7560; TP1 — 0.7440; TP2 — 0.7390.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A and Tenkan-sen; a new correctional golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in the Cloud; strong resistance of Senkou Span B.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11478

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls broke the Moving Average
11/28/2016

The price faced a support at 1.0522, which led to form a “Triple Bottom” pattern, so the price reached the 34 Moving Average. In this case, the market is likely going to decline towards the next support at 1.0617 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.0708 – 1.0745.

Bulls found a resistance at 1.0665, so the price is consolidating. It’s likely that the market is going to test the closest support at 1.0643 – 1.0617 during the day. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement, so we should keep an eye on the next resistance at 1.0708 – 1.0745 as an intraday target.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11480

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: correction is coming
11/28/2016

The price is consolidating above the local uptrend. Therefore, the pair is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.2476 – 1.2439 in the short term. Considering a “Double Bottom” pattern, bulls will probably try to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.2556 – 1.2584 later on.

We’ve got a resistance at 1.2511, so there’s a local downward price movement. So, the market is likely going to reach the closest support near the uptrend. At the same time, there’s an opportunity to have a bullish movement towards a resistance at 1.2556 – 1.2584 afterwards.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11482

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: outlook for Nov.28-Dec.2
11/28/2016

USD/JPY rose to its 8-month high of 113.90 from 110.94 last week as US macroeconomic releases beat market’s expectations.

Weekly focus

The US will have a very busy economic calendar this week. On Tuesday, we will receive the second estimate of GDP growth in the third quarter. US economic growth will likely improve slightly from 2.9% to 3.0%, reinforcing expectations that US growth is picking up steam in the second half of the year. On Wednesday, we will get personal consumption expenditure data, the Chicago PMI and pending home sales. The main focus will be on the non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings that are due on Friday. A strong reading should trigger the next wave of the USD strengthening.

Japan’s household spending data will be released on Tuesday. Retail sales and unemployment figures are out the same day. Retail sales are expected to fall by an annual rate of 1.2%, while the unemployment rate should stay unchanged at 3%. On Wednesday, watch for industrial production data that should indicate a decline in output.

Weekly strategy

The US dollar slumped to 111.3 in the beginning of this week. In the short term, we see more correction towards the nearest support at 111.21 (50 H4 MA), 110.40 (the higher border of Ichimoku cloud) and 108.45 (100 H4 MA) going forward. Stochastic on the daily timeframe was in the overbought area for a very long period of time. So, today’s rollbacks from Friday’s high are technically justified. In the near term, however, the USD should recoup its losses, especially if we get strong US data releases this week. The nearest resistance lines can be found at 112.98 (50-hour MA), and in the best scenario for the USD – at 114.00 (near the 100 MA on the weekly timeframe).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11483

 

[riki143]

US dollar: outlook for Nov. 28-Dec. 2
11/28/2016

Last week the US dollar managed to strengthen versus the other currencies last week, but its gains were smaller than in the two previous weeks. The US dollar index (DXY) failed to overcome resistance at 102.00. This week the greenback opened with a gap down.

The bullish trade we saw after the US election has paused. The US currency tended to rise following Treasury yields, which went up on the expectations that Donald Trump’s policies will increase inflation. However, now market players have reduced inflation expectations fearing that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fails to reach a production cut deal on Wednesday and oil prices fall.

Many analysts think that the USD rally was too strong and that now it will retrace much of its gains. Traders may even remember that Trump means uncertainty ahead for the American economy. The Federal Reserve’s December rate hike is now fully priced in and can no longer be a substantial driver for the dollar. Decline below support at 100.50 will open the way down to 99.00. At the same time, we recommend you not to be too bearish on the greenback. US economic data are good and Fed’s Chairwoman Janet Yellen has made it clear last week that the central bank will tighten policy next month. This will make declines in USD limited.

This week the US will release preliminary Q3 GDP and CB consumer confidence on Tuesday, ADP employment report and personal spending on Wednesday, unemployment claims and ISM manufacturing PMI on Thursday and nonfarm payrolls on Friday. We will hear from the Fed members on Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. All in all, the figures will likely show that the American economy is in good shape.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11484

 

[riki143]

Headlines of this week
11/28/2016

Brexit: never-ending legal battle

The government faces with a new legal hurdle on its way to the exiting from the EU. This time the legal question is focused on whether the UK will not leave the European Economic Area automatically when it leaves the European Union. Some lawyers believe that leaving the EEA would not be automatic and would happen only if the UK triggers Article 127 of the EEA agreement. If the court backs the legal challenge and gives MPs the final say over EEA membership, the Parliament can ensure the Britain’s stay in the single market until the trade terms between the UK and the EU are agreed.

This legal challenge can lengthen out the Brexit process via the European Court of Justice and delay the government’s negotiations with the EU. So, another good news for pound!

The rippling effect after OPEC meeting

The OPEC members will meet in Vienna on Wednesday to decide on the details of the output cut. If they manage to reach a deal, the oil prices will surge above $50. This in turn can push inflation rates higher globally. Higher inflation rates would add upside risk to the Fed’s tightening next year.

The rise of anti-euro sentiments!

Italian referendum

The Italian referendum will take place on Sunday, December 4. If the government loses (if voters say “no” to the constitutional reform), Prime Minister Renzi will likely have to resign. Italy will have to go through a new period of political instability caused by new elections that can lead to the rise to power of the anti-euro 5 Star movement.

Austrian presidential elections

Elections will be held on Sunday. The candidate of the right-wing Freedom Party Norbert Hofer has all chances to win. He is an anti-European advocate, so his win may pose a certain risk for the euro zone

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11486]https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11486

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Tower" at the local high
11/28/2016

We’ve got a “Shooting Star”, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. So, the price is likely going to test the nearest support once again. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local upward price movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a bullish candle in progress, so the current correction is likely going to be continued.

The price has been rising since a “High Wave” formed at the local low. However, we’ve got a “Tower” and a “Harami” at the last high, so the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support area.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11487

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Three Methods" pushing the price higher
11/28/2016

We’ve got a “Harami” and a “Tweezers”, which both have been confirmed enough. Also, there’re a “Hammer” on the 21 Moving Average, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, the nearest “Window” is likely going to act as a resistance, which could be a departure point for another decline. As we can see on the Daily chart, there're a “Shooting Star” and a “High Wave”, so the downward correction is likely going to be continued.

There’s a bullish “Hammer” at the local low, which has been confirmed enough. At the same time, we’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern, so the price is likely going to rise during the day.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11488[/IMG]

 

[riki143]

GBP/JPY reversed from resistance area
11/28/2016

GBP/JPY reversed from resistance area
Next sell target – 138.00
GBP/JPY recently reversed down from the resistance area lying between the pivotal resistance level 142.00 (which also earlier reversed the previous A-wave in July), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the previous downward impulse from June. The downward reversal from this resistance area stopped the earlier minor impulse 5.

If the pair closes today near the current levels – it will form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal signal Evening Star. GBP/JPY is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 138.00 (former strong resistance level, which stopped the previous intermediate correction (A) in the middle of July).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11489

 

[riki143]

EUR/AUD falling inside minor impulse wave (iii)
11/28/2016

EUR/AUD falling inside minor impulse wave (iii)
Next sell target - 1.4130
EUR/AUD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave (iii), which started earlier from the resistance zone lying between the powerful resistance level 1.4470 (former strong support level which reversed the previous multiple downward waves from March), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave from September.

EUR/AUD is expected to fall further in the direction of the next sell target at the key support level 1.4130, which reversed earlier impulse waves (i) and i, as can be seen from the daily EUR/AUD chart below.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11490

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave 1 finished

We’ve got a bearish impulse in wave 1. Previously, a triangle in wave (Y) was formed, so bears came back into the market. It’s likely that bulls are going to deliver wave 2 in the short term. However, there’s an opportunity to have another bearish impulse wave afterwards.

As we can see on the four-hours chart, an impulse in wave 1 was finished last week. There’s wave 2, which is taking form of a zigzag. Therefore, we could wave [c] of 2 soon. The nearest target is 0/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11491

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY & US GDP data: Further declines or new highs coming?
11/29/2016

Today at 13:30 GMT will be released the US GDP data for Q3 and it seems that we’ll see a slight increase from 2.9% to 3.0%. Revisions could come, by the way, as GDP report had been showing some variations from initial reports. However, this data should be interesting in terms that Federal Reserve is looking to increase rates in December and good performance of the US economy can support that scenario to happen in next meeting.

Our technical analysis for USD/JPY at H1 chart is showing an exhaustion of price action and the resistance zone of 113.36 seems to be a very strong area to cap buyers. If the pair manages to do a breakout below the support zone of 111.61, then we can expect further declines below the 200 SMA, towards the 110.86 level. If data comes better-than-expected in the United States, a rebound is likely to happen and it can target the 113.36 level once again.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11492