Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD & FOMC Minutes: The ground is ready for a rate hike!
11/23/2016

Today at 19:00 GMT we’ll have the FOMC minutes, which are from November’s meeting, where the central bank decided to keep unchanged interest rates, before the US elections. Traders will be looking for further hints about a possible rate hike in December’s meeting, as current Fed’s rhetoric remains unchanged: the case for raise rates has continued “to strengthen”. No major surprises are expected, but we’ll be aware of how market’s volatility will act after the release.

Our technical outlook for EUR/USD at H1 chart is sideways in a short-term, but if we check the overall picture, the pair is still weak across the board, with a price action consolidated below the 200 SMA. If we see a slump below the 1.0572 price zone, then further weakness toward the 1.0488 area is highly expected, while a rebound at current levels should take EUR/USD to test the 1.0735 level.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11417

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD: kiwi decided to test the "neckline"
11/23/2016

On the NZD/USD daily chart, quotes came back to the neckline of the "Head and shoulders" pattern. Rollback from the nearest resistance or from the lower boundary of the upward trading channel will allow us to open short positions.

On the NZD/USD hourly chart, there are the expanding wedge and the "Shark" patterns. The transformation in the "Shark" pattern into the 5-0 pattern will lead to the growth of quotes towards 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels from the CD-wave. Then, there might be a rollback followed by the restoration of the downtrend (especially if the "bulls" manage to test the resistance at 0.7315).

Recommendations:

SELL 0,7085 SL 0,714 TP 0,68

SELL 0,7145 SL 0,72 TP 0,68

SELL 0,7195 SL 0,725 TP 0,68.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11418

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound is coming back to its previous positions
11/23/2016

On the GBP/USD daily chart, the "bears" was trying to return to the borders of the medium-term consolidation range at 1.21-1.231, but failed to do so. As a result, the second shoulder of the "Head and shoulders" pattern was formed. A successful test of the lower boundary of the upward trading channel can lead to the downfall of quotes towards 1.215.

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the retest of the diagonal resistance in the form of the lower boundary of the upward trading channel can be used as a buying signal. In this situation, short positions should be opened from 1.2365 and 1.23 levels in the direction of the target 88.6% in the "Shark" pattern.

Recommendations:

SELL 1,2365 SL 1,242 TP 1,215

SELL 1,23 SL 1,2355 TP 1,215.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11419

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for November 23, 2016
11/23/2016

EUR/USD pinned to 1.0622 level only a few points above its one-year low at 1.0564. Much credit must go to the US bond yields that keep rising after the US presidential election. Another factor that contributes to the US strengthening is a divergence between the Fed intending to raise rates in December and ECB maintaining its steady hand and continuing its ultra-loose monetary policy. Today watch for the manufacturing PMI releases coming from the Eurozone and for the bunch of the US data (namely, new home sales, revised UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations). Also, we will get FOMC meeting minutes, but it shouldn’t bring much volatility to the chart as the market has already got used to the idea of the Fed’s rate hike in December.

AUD/USD was one of the greatest performers on the session, moving up to 0.7430 level from yesterday’s 0.7400. The main reason of the recent Aussie’s appreciation – rising commodity prices (iron ore futures rose 8%; copper move up towards its 16-month high). The bid for AUD was despite the disappointing data on Q3 construction work. Analysts see more AUD strengthening on the back of rallying commodity prices. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is at its highest level since June. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expect commodity prices to rise next year in the light of the boosted manufacturing activity around the world

GBP/USD fell yesterday towards the 1.2410 support ahead of the budget update from British Minister Philip Hammond. Now the pair is consolidating along the 1.2415 level (100 4h MA). Strategists expect some modest infrastructure spending and housing stimulus, but nothing that could change expectations of a weaker economy ahead of the “Brexit” talks.

USD/JPY’s move should be subdued today as the Japanese have a holiday today. The pair is trading above 111.00. There can be some more USD upside going forward if today’s statistical data from the US is strong.

USD/CAD edged down below 1.3440 in the course of the Asian session. Oil prices are steady at $49 for the present moment as the market hung in wait for more news from OPEC’s Vienna headquarters.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11420

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish "Flag"
11/23/2016

The price is consolidating above the nearest support at 1.0565. Also, we’ve got a “Flag”, so the market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.0550 – 1.0522 in the short term. If a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish movement towards a resistance at 1.0636 – 1.0673.

We’ve got a flat, which is taking place between the 55 Moving Average and the closest support at 1.0565. Therefore, the pair is likely going to reach a support at 1.0550 – 1.0522 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to achieve a resistance at 1.0600 – 1.0636.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11421

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Triple Top" led to decline
11/23/2016

There’s a “Double Top” pattern, so the price reached a support at 1.2379. So, bears are likely going to move on towards the next support at 1.2352 – 1.2309. If a pullback from this area be on the table, there’ll be an option to have another upward movement in the direction of a the nearest resistance at 1.2476 – 1.2556.

We’ve got a “Triple Top”, which led to the current decline. The price faced a support at 1.2399, so there’s a local bullish correction on the way. Meanwhile, bears are likely going to test the next support at 1.2351 – 1.2309 in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from this area, there’s an opportunity to have a bullish correction afterwards.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11422

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish trend may continue
11/23/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.0610; resistance – 1.0650.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.0600; SL — 1.0620; TP1 — 1.0570; TP2 – 1.0510.

Reason: bearish mood of Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong resistance of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11425

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: on support of Tenkan and Kijun
11/23/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2405, 1.2370; resistance – 1.2490.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2420; SL — 1.2400; TP1 — 1.2520; TP2 — 1.2610.

2. Sell — 1.2360; SL — 1.2380; TP1 — 1.2310; TP2 — 1.2230.

Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a weak golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a support of Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11426

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: aussie finished the local correction
11/23/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7390, 0.7360; resistance – 0.7440.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 0.7430/40; SL — 0.7460; TP1 — 0.7360; TP2 — 0.7320.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud but there is a rising Senkou Span A; dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are above Kijun-sen; strong resistance near 0.7440.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11427

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: ahead of the UK Autumn Statement
11/23/2016

What is the Autumn Statement and why it’s so important?

It's the Chancellor's second-biggest speech of the year after the Budget. Philip Hammond, the British the Chancellor of the Exchequer, will come to the House of Commons to reveal the state of the economy and outline the government's spending plans.

When to watch?

The Autumn Statement will be at 2.30 pm (Metatrader time).

What to expect?

Philip Hammond will have to admit the largest deterioration in British public finance since 2011. The chancellor faces a difficult set of choices, with little wiggle room, given the still gloomy path ahead for the UK economy. So, this Autumn Statement is likely to be a cautious update to the government’s spending plans, most likely disappointing for the market awaiting a Trumpstyle splash of fiscal stimulus. New policies will probably be focused on helping out the JAMs (Just About Managing) and on the promotion of the business productivity. Also, the Government might lessen the degree of austerity (but this easing is expected to be rather moderate).

GBP/USD levels to watch

TD waits for further GBP strength despite the expecting disappointment followed by the Autumn Statement. It favors tactical longs in the pound with an initial target of 1.2674 against support at 1.2365, but the primary trend remains bearish for GBP/USD overall.

Lloyds Bank is also positive in relation to pound saying that the prices might test the resistance at 1.2445, followed by 1.2510, whereas on the downside, there are several supports located at 1.2350 and 1.2200.

TB Bank Securities strategists believe that GBP will likely consolidate on the release. UOB is also neutral on the GBP/USD saying that the pair will likely be trading choppily in the range of 1.2300 – 1.2600 in the near-term.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11428

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Wednesday, November 23th
11/23/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 75 164 ? + 32 336 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0644; 1.0665; 1.0687; 1.0722
Closest support levels 1.0615; 1.0596; 1.0562; 1.0512
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0615, with target points at 1.0596 and 1.0562
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0644 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0665 and 1.0687


GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 64 ? - 119 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2430; 1.2454/65; 1.2518; 1.2572
Closest support levels 1.2378; 1.2347; 1.2301; 1.2240
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2378, with target points at 1.2347 and 1.2301
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2430 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2454/65 and 1.2518


USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 243 ? + 212 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3455; 1.3495; 1.3534; 1.3587
Closest support levels 1.3434; 1.3410; 1.3392; 1.3365
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3455, with the target points at 1.3495 and 1.3534
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3434 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3410 and 1.3392


More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11429

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "High Wave" pushing price higher
11/23/2016

There’s a “Doji”, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. The 13 Moving Average is acting as a resistance, so the price is likely going to test the nearest support in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last “Engulfing” doesn’t have a confirmation, so right after the second test of the closest support bulls are likely going to achieve a resistance nearby.

The price is consolidating along the 34 Moving Average. Also, we’ve got a “High Wave”, which has been confirmed enough. In this case, the pair is likely going to approach the nearest support line during the day.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11430

 

[riki143]

EUR/CAD reached sell target 1.4300
11/23/2016

EUR/CAD reached sell target 1.4300
Next buy target – 1.4420
EUR/CAD today reversed up from the support zone lying between the powerful, long-term support level 1.4300 (which stopped the previous waves 2, (ii) and 4 and which was set as the sell target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.

Given the strength of the support level 1.4300 and the oversold reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - EUR/CAD can be expected to correct up from the current levels toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.4420. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the support level 1.4200.

More;
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11431

 

[riki143]

AUD/CAD reached sell target 0.9900
11/23/2016


AUD/CAD reached sell target 0.9900
Next buy target - 1.0100
AUD/CAD recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 0.9900 (previous sell target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from May, as can be seen below.

The upward reversal from the aforementioned support zone completed the previous minor correction 2, which belongs to the active intermediate impulse wave (3) from August. AUD/CAD is likely to rise to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0100.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11432

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: lot of bearish patterns
11/23/2016

We’ve got an “Engulfing” and a “High Wave”, which both led to continue the current local correction. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest support once again. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a possible “High Wave”, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet.

The price is consolidating on the one-hour chart. The 13 Moving Average is acting as a support. If we see a pullback from this line, the pair is likely going rise, but then bears will probably try to reverse the market.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11433

 

[riki143]

Review on the book of Bill Williams
11/23/2016

“Trading chaos” is not just a book that describes one of the numerous ways of trading. It’s an exhaustive guidance for novice traders. Bill Williams compares his writing with the fundamental esoteric teaching because it contains not only actual trading strategies and techniques but also helps traders to cognize their inner world, their mind and the actual nature of financial markets.

The first chapter reveals the principles of the market’s operation. According to Bill Williams, the market like everything else in the universe always follows the path of the least resistance. Its movements are irrational, chaotic, but even in the market’s turbulences and unorganized fluctuations the logical patterns can be found. The task of the trader is to identify these patterns and suck advantage out of them.

In the following chapters, the author draws a map of trading. Virtually, he describes the life journey of a trader from being a novice to becoming an expert trader.

Williams tries to convince his readers that trading skills can be obtained only through the constant practice and learning, through trial and numerous errors sometimes correspondent with financial losses. In the end, having raised a good many of bumps, trader becomes a real expert who not only understands but also feels the market. Williams’ description of the life of an experienced trader reminded me the Noble Eightfold Path of Buddhist who goes through numerous practices and sufferings to attain nirvana. In “Williamsonian” version, nirvana is obtained experience that promises foolproof trades with big profits.

Besides this esoteric stuff, the book contains valuable information about Elliott waves, MACD indicator, fractals and some other technical indicators. If you’re not really interested in psychology and revelation of market’s behavior, you can delve into reading all these technical things and upgrade your trading skills.

DOWNLOAD THE BOOK

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11434

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave [iii] going to end
11/23/2016

The price is declining in wave [iii]. It’s likely that bears are going to test -2/8 Murrey Math Level shortly. If it be broken, there’ll be an opportunity to see a correction. However, if bears just smash -2/8 MM Level, we could see the market even lower.

Wave (iv) formed a double zigzag, so we have a bearish impulse in wave (v) in progress. If we see a pullback from -2/8 MM Level, there’ll be time for wave iv. Meanwhile, if this level be broken, we’re going to see a new Murrey Math's indication.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11435

 

[riki143]

EUR/JPY & German IFO Business Climate: Dynamic resistance already found?
11/24/2016

Today at 09:00 GMT will be released German Ifo Business Climate, which should remain unchanged for November’s data at 110.5. Given to the current situation of Euro currency, this indicator should bring some volatility in the EUR-related pairs, as recent numbers had been showing an optimism among investors about the German economy’s outlook in a short and mid-term basis, but the country is still facing some kind of slowdown.

Our technical overview for EUR/JPY at the daily chart is showing a strong bullish correction taking place and it seems that the pair is finding a top across the board. Currently, the 200 SMA is acting as a strong dynamic resistance and EUR/JPY may resume the bearish bias from this point. If that scenario happens, then we can expect a decline towards the 117.68 in a first degree. However, if resistance zone of 118.78 gives up, then a rally to the 120.81 is likely to happen.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11436

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: the US dollar regained its momentum
11/24/2106

On the USD/CAD daily chart, inability of "bulls" to test the resistance at 1.3272 (50% Fibonacci retracement level from the last downward wave) led to the correction. But "bears" failed to develop it, so, the initiative returned to their counterparts. The successful retest of this resistance can open the way towards 1,368 and 1,384 levels.

[IMGhttps://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11437/Screenshot_2016_11_24_08_39_23.png[/IMG]

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, there is an acceleration of the uptrend. A breakout of the resistance at 1.3575 can lead to the continuation of the rally.

Recommendation: BUY 1,3575 SL 1,352 TP1 1,368 TP2 1,384.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11437

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF: franc is sliding down to the bottom
11/24/2016

On the USD/CHF daily chart, bulls managed to test the resistances at 1.009 and 1.017. Now they serve as supports. The rally towards 161.8% target in the "Crab" pattern continues. The "bulls" remain control over the market. In this situation, it is better to buy on pullbacks.

On the USD/CHF hourly chart, there is an acceleration of the uptrend. The rollback towards the support at 1.0125 (target 127.2% in the pattern AB = CD) will be a signal for the opening of long positions.

Recommendation: BUY 1,0125 SL 1,007 TP1 1,0275 TP2 1,08.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11438