BTCUSD is under pressure amid growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, with the price currently hovering at 77,842.
BTCUSD forecast: key takeaways
The likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike has risen to 86%
Investors are reducing positions in risk assets amid changing expectations for US monetary policy
BTCUSD forecast for 14 September 2026: 73,825
Fundamental analysis
The BTCUSD price is recovering after testing the key support level at 76,505 USD, although selling pressure persists. The main negative factor for the cryptocurrency market remains the shift in expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy following the release of fresh US inflation data.
Additional pressure on Bitcoin comes from outflows from US spot ETFs. From 8 to 11 September, the funds recorded combined net outflows of around 462.6 million USD, marking a notable reversal following strong inflows earlier in the month.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
The US 500 index has stabilised following the US market decline earlier in the week, but pressure from the technology sector, high oil prices, and rising yields persists.
US 500 forecast: key takeaways
The semiconductor sector saw increased selling following new warnings about the risks of rapid artificial intelligence development
The likelihood of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike on Wednesday stands at 92%, while high oil prices and rising yields are adding further pressure on stocks
US 500 forecast for 15 September 2026: 7,615 and 7,575
Fundamental analysis
US stock index futures stabilised on Tuesday after the major indices declined at the start of the week. On Monday, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.56%, the S&P 500 fell by 0.48%, and the Dow Jones declined by 0.29%. The technology sector came under the greatest pressure.
Investor sentiment deteriorated after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for a slowdown in the pace of artificial intelligence development due to risks associated with the continued expansion of model capabilities.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
US 30 declines as probability of a rate hike exceeds 90%
The US 30 outlook for today is negative, as US government bond yields have exceeded the psychological 5% level. The US 30 price currently stands at 52,177.0.
US 30 forecast: key takeaways
US CPI for August came in at 3.4% year-on-year
Today, the market will await the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision
US 30 forecast for 16 September 2026: 51,530.0
Fundamental analysis
The market estimates the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, from the current 3.50–3.75% range to 3.75–4.00%, at around 92.4%. The likelihood of the rate remaining unchanged is only 7.6%.
For the US 30 index, the situation remains moderately negative. A higher interest rate increases borrowing costs for companies, makes government bonds more attractive, and at the same time reduces the relative appeal of stock.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
JP 225 could rise on a weaker yen and lower oil prices
The JP 225 index is struggling to recover for a second consecutive session following the yen's decline and lower oil prices. The current price is 64,161.
JP 225 forecast: key takeaways
The yen's decline following the Federal Reserve's decision improves the outlook for export-oriented Japanese companies
Lower oil prices reduce pressure on Japan's economy, which is highly dependent on energy imports
JP 225 forecast for 17 September 2026: 64,860 and 65,450
Fundamental analysis
The Nikkei 225 index is gaining around 0.5% on Thursday and rising above 64,200, while the broader Topix is up approximately 1%. Japanese equities continue to recover even after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and signalled the possibility of further policy tightening.
One of the main factors supporting the market has been the yen's decline against the US dollar following the Federal Reserve's decision.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
XAUUSD maintains bullish momentum after the Federal Reserve meeting
XAUUSD is rising for a second consecutive trading session after rebounding from strong support. The current price is 4,367 USD.
XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October is estimated at 53.1%, according to CME FedWatch
US initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 196,000
XAUUSD forecast for 18 September 2026: 4,575
Fundamental analysis
XAUUSD is rising for a second consecutive trading session. Buyers held the 4,250 USD support level and then began testing the 4,395 USD resistance level more actively. The Federal Reserve's decision to raise the key interest rate by 25 basis points removed a source of uncertainty and helped improve investor sentiment.
According to traders' average forecast, the key rate could be raised by another 25 basis points before the end of 2026. Market participants currently assess the probability of another rate increase at the October meeting at 53.1%, according to CME FedWatch.
Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
XAUUSD corrects, but record ETF inflows support gold
Physically backed gold ETFs attracted 18 billion USD in August, which could provide long-term support for gold. The current price is 4,355 USD.
XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways
The Federal Reserve maintains a clear signal on the future course of monetary policy
According to the World Gold Council, physically backed gold ETFs attracted 18 billion USD in August
XAUUSD forecast for 21 September 2026: 4,430 and 4,315
Fundamental analysis
The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 21 September 2026, shows that gold is forming a corrective wave and testing the 4,355 USD level.
At its 15–16 September meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.00% and maintained a hawkish signal on the future course of monetary policy.
Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
US 500: AI optimism outweighs the Federal Reserve rate hike
The US 500 index has resumed its rise after a decline triggered by tighter US Federal Reserve monetary policy. The current price stands at 7,778.
US 500 forecast: key takeaways
Meta's new AI agent, Muse, has become the most downloaded free iPhone app in the US
Arm forecasts the server CPU market to grow by more than 35% annually. AMD estimates the market potential at 220 billion USD
US 500 forecast for 22 September 2026: 7,950
Fundamental analysis
The Federal Reserve's decision to raise its interest rate to the 3.75–4.00% range is generally a restraining factor for the US stock market, but its impact cannot be viewed as exclusively negative. The decision contains two important signals. First, monetary policy is likely to remain relatively tight for considerably longer than the market had previously expected.
For the US 500, the main negative factor is not so much the 25-basis-point rate hike itself as the change in expectations regarding future Federal Reserve policy.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
USDJPY rises as government bond yield differential supports the dollar
The probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike as early as October is 55%.
USDJPY forecast: key takeaways
According to Reuters, the market estimates the probability of another rate hike at the October meeting at around 55%
The Bank of Japan raised the interest rate to 1.25%
USDJPY forecast for 23 September 2026: 158.90
Fundamental analysis
The fundamental backdrop for USDJPY currently remains largely in favour of the dollar despite the Bank of Japan's tighter monetary policy. On 16 September, the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75–4.00%.
The Bank of Japan has also shifted towards tighter policy. On 18 September, the regulator raised the interest rate from 1.00% to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
