Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

DE 40 forecast: the index breaks out of the sideways channel and continues to decline

The DE 40 index approached a resistance level, but the downtrend continues. The DE 40 forecast for today is negative.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Germany’s ifo Business Climate Index for September 2025 came in at 87.7 points
• Market impact: the figures create a restrictive backdrop for the German equity market

Fundamental analysis

Germany’s ifo Business Climate Index for September 2025 stood at 87.7 points, below the forecast of 89.3 and lower than the previous figure of 88.9. This reflects weakening optimism among German companies, with cautious expectations regarding business activity, domestic demand, and external conditions. The decline highlights ongoing pressure from high costs, weak exports, and global economic uncertainty.

For the German equity market, these figures form a restrictive backdrop. Declining business sentiment could reinforce investor caution, particularly in industry, machinery, and exports, which are traditionally sensitive to shifts in the business climate. Much will depend on the ECB’s next steps — any monetary easing could help support the German economy.

Read this article on RoboForex website - DE 40 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Brent falls into the hands of the bears: rising supply signals nothing good

Brent slipped to 66.42 USD per barrel. The market is filled with negativity ahead of additional supply entering the market. Discover more in our analysis for 30 September 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Brent crude declines under pressure from geopolitics and OPEC+ rhetoric
• Additional supply on the global market will push prices down even faster
• Brent forecast for 30 September 2025: 65.40

Fundamental analysis

Brent crude fell to 66.42 USD per barrel on Tuesday, extending the decline of the previous session. Prices are under pressure from expectations of increased global supply and discussions of a possible ceasefire in Gaza.

Media reports suggest that at Sunday’s meeting, OPEC+ may approve an additional output increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day starting in November.

Another factor was the resumption of oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan. Flows through the Iraq–Turkey pipeline were restored on Saturday after a US-brokered agreement between regional authorities, Baghdad, Turkey, and foreign companies.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Brent Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US 30 forecast: the upward trend continues, the resistance level has not yet been breached

After reaching a new all-time high, the US 30 index trend remains fragile. The outlook for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US JOLTS Job Openings for September came in at 7.23M
• Market impact: confirms economic resilience and revenue support for cyclical companies

Fundamental analysis

The JOLTS report showed 7.23M job openings versus a forecast of 7.19M and 7.21M in the previous month. This points to sustained labour demand and underlines the resilience of the job market. Although the increase was modest, it reduces the likelihood of a swift easing of labour market tightness and could maintain upward pressure on wages and core services inflation.

The small upside surprise strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to take a cautious approach to policy easing. Expectations for aggressive rate cuts in the near term have diminished, while long-term bond yields may stay elevated. This increases the sensitivity of equity markets to rate dynamics and inflation expectations.

Read this article on RoboForex website - US 30 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JP 225 forecast: index corrects after hitting new all-time high

The JP 225 index is undergoing a correction, although the broader uptrend remains intact. The JP 225 forecast for today is negative.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Tokyo core CPI came in at 2.5% year-on-year
• Market impact: the impact on the Japanese equity market is moderately positive

Fundamental analysis

Tokyo’s core Consumer Price Index stood at 2.5% year-on-year, below the consensus forecast of 2.8% and unchanged from the prior month. This shows that inflationary pressure in Japan’s largest metropolitan area remains stable and softer than expected. For equity markets, this reduces the likelihood of accelerated monetary policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan. The case for aggressive tightening has weakened, which supports valuations for assets sensitive to discount rates.

For the JP 225 index, the overall impact is moderately positive. Softer inflation lowers the risk of sharp rises in yields and capital costs. On the currency side, this increases the likelihood of a weaker yen, which improves overseas revenue conversion for exporters and supports their stock performance, creating a positive ripple across the index.

Read this article on RoboForex website - JP 225 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

AUDUSD consolidates around 0.6600

The AUDUSD rate settled around the 0.6600 level amid ongoing uncertainty over US government funding. Discover more in our analysis for 3 October 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the US Department of Labor postponed the release of unemployment rate and Nonfarm Payrolls statistics
• Current trend: range-bound trading
• AUDUSD forecast for 3 October 2025: 0.6577 or 0.6630

Fundamental analysis

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned on Thursday that the government shutdown could negatively impact GDP growth, while President Donald Trump threatened mass federal worker layoffs to pressure Democrats.

The shutdown has also delayed key economic data as the Department of Labor postponed Friday’s release of the September Nonfarm Payrolls report.

The Australian dollar received support from the Reserve Bank of Australia after policymakers warned of higher-than-expected inflation. Markets are now pricing in only about a 45% chance of a rate cut at the 4 November meeting, compared to nearly 100% odds priced in a month ago.

Read this article on RoboForex website - AUDUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD on pause: everyone is waiting for US news

The EURUSD pair has settled within the 1.1727 range. The market is conserving energy while awaiting news on the US government shutdown. Discover more in our analysis for 6 October 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair is consolidating sideways amid uncertainty surrounding the US government shutdown
• With no fresh headlines, investors are watching secondary data releases
• EURUSD forecast for 6 October 2025: 1.1660 or 1.1780

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate remains neutral around 1.1727 amid concerns over the consequences of the prolonged US government shutdown. Congress once again failed to agree on a temporary budget, leading to the suspension of several federal programs and the delay of key macroeconomic reports, including the September Nonfarm Payrolls.

On the monetary front, markets continue to price in two Federal Reserve rate cuts in October and December, each by 25 basis points. Recent data have strengthened expectations that the Fed will maintain its policy easing trajectory.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team