Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

DE 40 forecast: the index breaks out of the sideways channel and continues to decline

The DE 40 index approached a resistance level, but the downtrend continues. The DE 40 forecast for today is negative.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Germany’s ifo Business Climate Index for September 2025 came in at 87.7 points
• Market impact: the figures create a restrictive backdrop for the German equity market

Fundamental analysis

Germany’s ifo Business Climate Index for September 2025 stood at 87.7 points, below the forecast of 89.3 and lower than the previous figure of 88.9. This reflects weakening optimism among German companies, with cautious expectations regarding business activity, domestic demand, and external conditions. The decline highlights ongoing pressure from high costs, weak exports, and global economic uncertainty.

For the German equity market, these figures form a restrictive backdrop. Declining business sentiment could reinforce investor caution, particularly in industry, machinery, and exports, which are traditionally sensitive to shifts in the business climate. Much will depend on the ECB’s next steps — any monetary easing could help support the German economy.

Read this article on RoboForex website - DE 40 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Brent falls into the hands of the bears: rising supply signals nothing good

Brent slipped to 66.42 USD per barrel. The market is filled with negativity ahead of additional supply entering the market. Discover more in our analysis for 30 September 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Brent crude declines under pressure from geopolitics and OPEC+ rhetoric
• Additional supply on the global market will push prices down even faster
• Brent forecast for 30 September 2025: 65.40

Fundamental analysis

Brent crude fell to 66.42 USD per barrel on Tuesday, extending the decline of the previous session. Prices are under pressure from expectations of increased global supply and discussions of a possible ceasefire in Gaza.

Media reports suggest that at Sunday’s meeting, OPEC+ may approve an additional output increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day starting in November.

Another factor was the resumption of oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan. Flows through the Iraq–Turkey pipeline were restored on Saturday after a US-brokered agreement between regional authorities, Baghdad, Turkey, and foreign companies.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Brent Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US 30 forecast: the upward trend continues, the resistance level has not yet been breached

After reaching a new all-time high, the US 30 index trend remains fragile. The outlook for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US JOLTS Job Openings for September came in at 7.23M
• Market impact: confirms economic resilience and revenue support for cyclical companies

Fundamental analysis

The JOLTS report showed 7.23M job openings versus a forecast of 7.19M and 7.21M in the previous month. This points to sustained labour demand and underlines the resilience of the job market. Although the increase was modest, it reduces the likelihood of a swift easing of labour market tightness and could maintain upward pressure on wages and core services inflation.

The small upside surprise strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to take a cautious approach to policy easing. Expectations for aggressive rate cuts in the near term have diminished, while long-term bond yields may stay elevated. This increases the sensitivity of equity markets to rate dynamics and inflation expectations.

Read this article on RoboForex website - US 30 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JP 225 forecast: index corrects after hitting new all-time high

The JP 225 index is undergoing a correction, although the broader uptrend remains intact. The JP 225 forecast for today is negative.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Tokyo core CPI came in at 2.5% year-on-year
• Market impact: the impact on the Japanese equity market is moderately positive

Fundamental analysis

Tokyo’s core Consumer Price Index stood at 2.5% year-on-year, below the consensus forecast of 2.8% and unchanged from the prior month. This shows that inflationary pressure in Japan’s largest metropolitan area remains stable and softer than expected. For equity markets, this reduces the likelihood of accelerated monetary policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan. The case for aggressive tightening has weakened, which supports valuations for assets sensitive to discount rates.

For the JP 225 index, the overall impact is moderately positive. Softer inflation lowers the risk of sharp rises in yields and capital costs. On the currency side, this increases the likelihood of a weaker yen, which improves overseas revenue conversion for exporters and supports their stock performance, creating a positive ripple across the index.

Read this article on RoboForex website - JP 225 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

AUDUSD consolidates around 0.6600

The AUDUSD rate settled around the 0.6600 level amid ongoing uncertainty over US government funding. Discover more in our analysis for 3 October 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the US Department of Labor postponed the release of unemployment rate and Nonfarm Payrolls statistics
• Current trend: range-bound trading
• AUDUSD forecast for 3 October 2025: 0.6577 or 0.6630

Fundamental analysis

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned on Thursday that the government shutdown could negatively impact GDP growth, while President Donald Trump threatened mass federal worker layoffs to pressure Democrats.

The shutdown has also delayed key economic data as the Department of Labor postponed Friday’s release of the September Nonfarm Payrolls report.

The Australian dollar received support from the Reserve Bank of Australia after policymakers warned of higher-than-expected inflation. Markets are now pricing in only about a 45% chance of a rate cut at the 4 November meeting, compared to nearly 100% odds priced in a month ago.

Read this article on RoboForex website - AUDUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD on pause: everyone is waiting for US news

The EURUSD pair has settled within the 1.1727 range. The market is conserving energy while awaiting news on the US government shutdown. Discover more in our analysis for 6 October 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair is consolidating sideways amid uncertainty surrounding the US government shutdown
• With no fresh headlines, investors are watching secondary data releases
• EURUSD forecast for 6 October 2025: 1.1660 or 1.1780

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate remains neutral around 1.1727 amid concerns over the consequences of the prolonged US government shutdown. Congress once again failed to agree on a temporary budget, leading to the suspension of several federal programs and the delay of key macroeconomic reports, including the September Nonfarm Payrolls.

On the monetary front, markets continue to price in two Federal Reserve rate cuts in October and December, each by 25 basis points. Recent data have strengthened expectations that the Fed will maintain its policy easing trajectory.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US 500 forecast: the index hit new all-time high

The US 500 index continued to reach new all-time highs within the ongoing uptrend. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: the US ISM services prices for September came in at 69.4
• Market impact: the data has a moderately negative effect on the US stock market

Fundamental analysis

The ISM non-manufacturing prices index for October 2025 reached 69.4, slightly above the forecast of 68.0 and only marginally higher than the previous reading of 69.2. Rising prices in the non-manufacturing sector indicate persistent inflationary pressure in the services industry, the key segment of the US economy. For market participants, this is a signal that inflationary processes remain stable despite the gradual cooling of the manufacturing sector. Such dynamics may strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at elevated levels for longer than previously anticipated. As a result, investors may act cautiously, particularly towards companies sensitive to changes in borrowing costs.

For the US 500, the released data could have a moderately negative impact. Elevated prices in the services sector reduce the likelihood of an imminent monetary policy easing, which could limit short-term growth of the index. However, since the figure only slightly exceeded expectations, the market reaction is likely to remain balanced.

Read this article on RoboForex website - US 500 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US 30 forecast: the index hit a new all-time high and entered a correction

After reaching a new all-time high, the US 30 index has begun to decline, although the overall trend remains upward. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US services PMI (preliminary) came in at 54.2 in September
• Market impact: the data has a moderately positive effect on the stock market

Fundamental analysis

The US services PMI for October 2025 stood at 54.2, slightly above the forecast of 53.9 but marginally below the previous reading of 54.5. A PMI reading above 50.0 indicates an expansion in business activity in the service sector, which remains the primary driver of the US economy. A stronger-than-expected reading signals steady demand and positive sentiment among businesses, supporting expectations of moderate economic growth without signs of overheating. For the equity market, such data is generally viewed positively, as it confirms the resilience of corporate earnings and overall economic activity.

However, the slight decline compared to the previous month may be interpreted as a sign that the economy is gradually stabilising after a phase of robust expansion. This reduces overheating concerns but may also temper excessive investor optimism. For the US 30 index, the PMI results are moderately positive.

Read this article on RoboForex website - US 30 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JP 225 forecast: the index hit two consecutive all-time highs

The JP 225 stock index continues to rise after reaching a new all-time high. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Japan’s current account for August 2025 stood at 3.77 trillion JPY
• Market impact: the data has a moderately positive effect on the Japanese stock market

Fundamental analysis

The increase in Japan’s current account surplus indicates a strong foreign economic position: exports of goods and services, along with income from overseas investments, exceed imports and external payments. This reflects the resilience of Japan’s economy and its ability to maintain a positive balance, which is generally viewed as a fundamentally supportive signal. A higher surplus can boost investor confidence in Japan’s economic stability, strengthen the yen, and attract additional capital inflows to domestic markets.

For the JP 225 index, the overall effect is moderately positive. Shares of semiconductor-related companies showed elevated volatility. The index hit another all-time high on Monday after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party elected staunch conservative Sanae Takaichi as its new leader on Saturday, paving the way for her to become Japan’s first female prime minister. This political development lifted investor sentiment.

Read this article on RoboForex website - JP 225 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY rises to the 153.00 area

The USDJPY rate is on the rise, climbing to around 153.00 following the recent elections in Japan. Discover more in our analysis for 10 October 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: Japan’s PPI rose by 0.3% in September
• Current trend: upward momentum persists
• USDJPY forecast for 10 October 2025: 154.00 or 152.00

Fundamental analysis

The pair continues its upward trajectory after Sanae Takaichi won Japan’s election for the position of prime minister, reinforcing expectations of increased fiscal spending and a dovish monetary policy stance.

Takaichi stated that the Bank of Japan would conduct policy independently while aligning with government objectives, adding that she aims to avoid excessive yen weakening, although her comments failed to support the currency. Markets now estimate the likelihood of a BoJ rate hike in December at less than 50%, with expectations shifting towards March next year.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team