Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) strengthens despite pressure from the US dollar

XAUUSD quotes are attempting to recover, supported by technical factors and sustained demand. Prices currently stand at 3,292 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 1 August 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold demand in Q2 2025 reached 1,080 tonnes
• Central banks reduced purchases but remain key buyers
• Jewellery consumption dropped to 2020 levels
• XAUUSD forecast for 1 August 2025: 3,375

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices are rising for the second consecutive day, with buyers keeping prices above the lower boundary of a large Triangle pattern. Despite this local recovery, the precious metal remains under pressure from a stronger US dollar, which gained after Donald Trump announced plans to impose higher tariffs on several countries.

According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand in Q2 2025 reached 1,080 tonnes, up 10% from the same period last year. Central banks continue to play a significant role despite slightly lower purchase volumes. In contrast, the jewellery segment showed weak dynamics, with consumption nearly returning to 2020 pandemic levels.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY plunges, Bank of Japan remains silent, while US industrial sector hits negative records

The USDJPY outlook is at a tipping point. With US economic indicators pressuring the dollar, a rally towards 149.00 is possible. Find out more in our analysis for 4 August 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• US factory orders: previously at 8.2%, projected at -4.9%
• Current trend: upward impulse remains possible
• USDJPY forecast for 4 August 2025: 149.00

Fundamental analysis

The release of actual US employment data triggered a USD sell-off. After testing the 150.00 level, the USDJPY rate dropped significantly and currently trades around 147.00.

Japan’s Ministry of Finance expressed concern over increased yen volatility and sharp rate swings. However, the Bank of Japan believes the current JPY exchange rate does not influence inflation, indirectly hinting that a yen intervention is unlikely in the near term. The central bank also suggests that a change in interest rates is improbable anytime soon.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US 500 forecast: index hits new all-time high and begins correction

The US 500 index approached the 6,500.0 level, and with each new all-time high, the likelihood of a downward correction increases. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US NFP for July came in at 73 thousand
• Market impact: slower employment growth and a high unemployment rate create uncertainty, which may trigger volatility and investor caution

Fundamental analysis

The Nonfarm Payrolls figure came in at 73 thousand, significantly below the expected 106 thousand, although still above the revised previous value of 14 thousand. This reflects a slowdown in job growth and worsening hiring dynamics. The three-month average job growth is just around 35 thousand, marking the weakest level since the onset of the 2020 pandemic. This suggests a notable cooling in the labour market and could signal a broader economic slowdown.

This serves as a negative signal for the US 500 index, since weak labour data often correlates with slowing economic activity and declining corporate earnings. The technology sector may come under pressure, as company growth depends heavily on a strong economy and robust consumer demand.

Read this article on RoboForex website - US 500 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Bullish correction in GBPUSD slows near resistance at 1.3350

Investors remain cautiously optimistic about GBPUSD amid a weakening US dollar, with the price currently at 1.3306. Discover more in our analysis for 6 August 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• The US ISM services PMI fell to 50.1 in July
• The ISM report indicates almost complete stagnation in the services sector
• GBPUSD forecast for 6 August 2025: 1.3090

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD rate has been strengthening for the fourth consecutive session, forming a moderate bullish correction. However, the price remains below the key resistance level at 1.3350.

The US dollar remains under pressure following the unexpected drop in the ISM services PMI to 50.1 in July, down from 50.8 in June. The market consensus had expected an increase to 51.5. The release suggests a near standstill in services sector growth, highlighting the negative impact of President Donald Trump's tariff policy.

Read this article on RoboForex website - GBPUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JP 225 forecast: the index set to reach a new all-time high

The JP 225 stock index has completed its correction and resumed upward movement. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Japan’s current account for June stood at 3.436 trillion JPY
• Market impact: this indicates a healthy economic structure and currency balance support, which generally boosts investor confidence

Fundamental analysis

Japan’s latest current account data showed a surplus of 3.436 trillion JPY, well above the forecast of 2.940 trillion JPY and the previous figure of 2.258 trillion JPY. The growth in the current account indicates that Japan exports significantly more goods and services than it imports, or receives substantial income from overseas investments.

The JP 225 index, which includes the largest and most liquid stocks on the Japanese market, typically reacts positively to improving macroeconomic indicators. A growing current account reflects external stability, which increases investor risk appetite and supports stock growth, especially in stable and fast-growing sectors of the economy.

Read this article on RoboForex website - JP 225 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY remains in a narrow range for five consecutive sessions

The USDJPY rate remains in a narrow range amid disagreements within the BoJ over the timing of future rate hikes. The current quote is 147.33. Find out more in our analysis for 8 August 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• BoJ members are split over the timing and pace of future rate hikes
• BoJ raised its inflation outlook and improved its economic forecast
• Growth in household spending in Japan slowed sharply in June
• USDJPY forecast for 8 August 2025: 150.50

Fundamental analysis

Today, the USDJPY rate is rising slightly, while remaining within the range that has held for five consecutive trading sessions. Buyers continue to defend the key 146.65 support level. The US dollar is strengthening after the release of the BoJ’s July meeting minutes, which revealed that board members are divided on the timing and pace of future rate hikes.

The central bank kept its interest rate at 0.5%, raised its inflation forecast, and presented a more optimistic assessment of the economic outlook. Some BoJ officials warned of rising inflationary pressures and supported a gradual rate hike to avoid abrupt tightening. Others argued for maintaining the current accommodative stance, citing significant uncertainty over whether economic forecasts will materialise.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

DE 40 forecast: the index has formed a downtrend, but it is likely to be short-term

The DE 40 stock index continues to correct after an uptrend. The DE 40 forecast for today is negative.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Germany’s balance of trade for June 2025 totalled 14.9 billion EUR
• Market impact: a decline in the trade balance compared to forecasts and previous figures signals a slowdown in export activity, which will negatively affect the shares of exporting companies

Fundamental analysis

Germany’s trade balance for June 2025 came in at 14.9 billion EUR, below the forecast of 17.8 billion EUR and the previous reading of 18.6 billion EUR. The trade balance is the difference between a country’s exports and imports over a certain period. A positive figure indicates that Germany exported more goods than it imported. A drop in the trade balance compared to both the forecast and the previous figures signals a slowdown in export activity. This may indicate weak external demand for German goods, which is a negative factor for the German economy and its large export-oriented companies.

The DE 40 index, which consists of the largest German companies, will come under pressure due to the worsening trade balance. Since most of the index companies operate in export-driven industries such as automotive, engineering, and chemical, a decline in exports will hurt their financial performance and negatively affect their share prices.

Read this article on RoboForex website - DE 40 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US 500 forecast: quotes approach resistance, but the downtrend continues

The US 500 index remains in a downtrend, which is unlikely to be long-term. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1 in July
• Market impact: for the US stock market, such data has a mixed effect

Fundamental analysis

The ISM non-manufacturing PMI is a key indicator of the service sector, which accounts for more than 70% of US GDP. The July 2025 reading of 50.1 shows that the economy in the service segment continues to grow, but very weakly, and is almost on the verge of stagnation. The figure came in below the forecast of 51.5 and barely changed from the previous 50.8, indicating a lack of strong growth drivers and possibly declining business confidence in the industry.

For the US stock market, such data has a mixed impact. On one hand, weak service sector figures cool expectations for corporate earnings growth in consumer-facing industries and raise concerns about the sustainability of domestic demand. This could put negative pressure on the broad US 500 index, especially in cyclical sectors that depend on economic activity.

Read this article on RoboForex website - US 500 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY falls below 148.00

The USDJPY pair is declining, moving below 148.00 following the release of US inflation data. Find more details in our analysis for 13 August 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the July US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in line with forecasts
• Current trend: moving downwards
• USDJPY forecast for 13 August 2025: 148.50 or 147.00

Fundamental analysis

The Japanese yen strengthened after the release of US consumer inflation data, which matched forecasts, rising by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year. This boosted market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month.

In Japan, business sentiment improved for the second consecutive month in August following a trade deal with Washington. The agreement reduced US tariffs on cars and other goods to 15% in exchange for a Japanese investment package worth 550 billion USD.

Bank of Japan board members remain divided over the timing and pace of future rate hikes. While some policymakers favour maintaining the current accommodative policy for now, they also pointed to uncertainty over whether current economic forecasts will materialise.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JP 225 forecast: the index has formed an upward channel and targets a new all-time high

The JP 225 stock index hit a new all-time high and continued its upward trajectory. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Japan’s current account for July totalled 1.348 trillion JPY
• Market impact: overall reaction for the broad equity market is neutral to restrained

Fundamental analysis

While the current account remains in surplus, it is significantly lower than both the consensus and the previous reading. The decline signals less favourable external conditions and higher import costs, which may limit corporate profit margins. At the same time, a likely soft yen partially offsets the effect by supporting exporters. As a result, the balance of factors for the index is mixed: there may be heightened sensitivity to news about global demand and energy prices.

For the JP 225, this means a mixed backdrop: export-oriented industries benefit from a weaker yen in the short term, while energy-intensive and import-dependent segments face shrinking margins. The index’s further trajectory will depend on global trade trends, energy price dynamics, yen movements, and the Bank of Japan’s assessment of the balance between policy normalisation and support for economic growth.

Read this article on RoboForex website - JP 225 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team