Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

XAUUSD strengthens after collapse amid strong US employment data

XAUUSD quotes are recovering due to rising safe-haven demand amid budgetary and trade risks. Current quote – 3,339 USD. Details – in our analysis for 4 July 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• In June, US companies created 147,000 new jobs
• US unemployment rate fell to 4.1% instead of the expected 4.3%
• XAUUSD forecast for 4 July 2025: 3,465

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD price is rising after yesterday’s sharp decline. Gold prices fell following strong US labour market data: in June, US companies created 147,000 new jobs – significantly above the forecast of 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% instead of the projected 4.3%. These figures reinforced expectations that the Fed will keep the interest rate at its current level.

However, concerns over the growing US budget deficit and persistent uncertainty in trade policy have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. An additional factor was the passage of President Donald Trump’s bill in Congress, which provides for tax cuts and reductions in government spending.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD weekly forecast: US budget deficit and trade wars in focus

Last week the euro reached new peaks but EURUSD corrected by week’s end, stabilising amid the US holiday and market readiness to react swiftly to changing conditions. This weekly EURUSD forecast analyses factors that could drive the pair to fresh 2025 highs.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: Donald Trump signs measures set to push the US budget deficit to its limits. On 9 July maximum trade tariffs come into effect.
• Current trend: The medium-term uptrend remains intact; short-term consolidation is near 1.1780.
• EURUSD forecast for 7-11 July 2025: Growth target – retest of the 1.1836 high; support levels – 1.1680 and 1.1439.

Fundamental analysis

EURUSD fundamentals remain mixed and contradictory. The dollar strengthened after the US jobs report showed 147,000 new jobs created in June – above forecasts and May’s reading. Unemployment fell to 4.1 % despite expectations of a rise. These figures lowered the chance of a near-term Fed rate cut and briefly restored dollar demand as a relatively stable currency.

In the UK and eurozone, attention turns to central bank policy. The Bank of England signals readiness to cut rates in August amid fears of overheating and a sharp economic slowdown. The ECB remains more reserved: President Christine Lagarde stated that further steps depend on data and that current rates are near neutral. This gives EUR local stability while the dollar weakens overall.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Trump prepares tariff storm for Japan – what will happen to USDJPY

USDJPY reacts specifically to tariffs on goods from Japan; quotes may form a correction towards support around 145.20. Details – in our analysis for 8 July 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Trump imposes a 25% tariff on goods from Japan
• Investors seek refuge in USD
• USDJPY forecast for 8 July 2025: 145.20

Fundamental analysis

US President Trump announced the introduction of 25% tariffs on goods from Japan from 1 August. The trade confrontation between the US and Japan does not end at this stage. Earlier, Trump spoke of 50% import tariffs, but gradually his fervour is cooling down, and he does not rule out the possibility of easing tariffs and extending their deadlines.

Attempts to support US manufacturers through higher import tariffs ultimately affect consumers, who will have to pay these tariffs out of their own pockets. Importers, including Japan, China, and the EU, may eventually increase prices for their goods to compensate for tariffs and gain their own profit.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

GBPUSD in an uptrend despite global risks

The GBPUSD rate is strengthening but remains under pressure from global tensions and calls for increased defence spending. Current quote – 1.3593. Details – in our analysis for 9 July 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• The UK is working on an agreement with the US to cancel steel tariffs, fearing an increase up to 50%
• An increase in steel tariffs could have a devastating impact on the British steel industry
• GBPUSD forecast for 9 July 2025: 1.3770

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD rate is recovering after three consecutive days of decline. The British pound came under pressure due to rising global tensions and mounting calls for increased defence spending, creating long-term budgetary uncertainty. Despite the current bearish correction, the GBPUSD currency pair continues to move within an uptrend.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) warned that government debt could reach 270% of GDP by 2070, due to demographic changes and rising healthcare and pension costs.

Read this article on RoboForex website - GBPUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

A surprise from the Fed and US: Brent heads towards 71.70 USD

Brent oil quotes continue their upward trend and may test the 71.70 USD level. Details – in our analysis for 10 July 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Brent oil price is forming a correction
• US initial jobless claims: previous value – 233,000, forecast – 236,000
• Brent forecast for 10 July 2025: 71.70

Fundamental analysis

The fundamental analysis for Brent today, 10 July 2025, takes into account that the Brent price, having updated June's highs, rose to 77.75 USD per barrel before forming a correction. At this stage, quotes remain around 69.70 USD.

US initial jobless claims for 10 July are forecast to rise to 336,000. The increase compared to the previous period is not critical but higher unemployment negatively affects purchasing power and may impact energy demand.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Brent Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) at a stabilization point: many risks, but no one is afraid

Gold (XAUUSD) price consolidates at 3,333 USD. Trump’s trade policy worries the market, but there is no panic. Details – in our analysis for 11 July 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) price has changed little over the week
• The market is focused on trade risks but is not yet ready to re-evaluate them
• XAUUSD forecast for 11 July 2025: 3,345

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) price remains stable near 3,333 USD on Friday. Overall, the precious metal attempts to rise for the third day in a row. Market focus remains on demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating trade tensions.

President Donald Trump announced the introduction of a 35% tariff on imports from Canada starting 1 August and spoke about plans to introduce large-scale tariffs of 15-20% for most other trading partners. Previously, there were threats against Brazil and proposals to impose tariffs on copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceutical products.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team