Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

GBPUSD under pressure: US labour market data crushes bulls’ hopes

The GBPUSD rate is falling amid US dollar strength following robust US labour market data. The price currently stands at 1.3504. Find out more in our analysis for 4 June 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• US job openings rose to 7.391 million in April
• Robust JOLTS data boosted support for the USD
• The ADP private sector employment report is due today
• GBPUSD forecast for 4 June 2025: 1.3450 and 1.3600

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD rate is declining for the second consecutive session. Sellers re-entered the market after testing the key resistance level at 1.3565. On the daily chart, a Double Top reversal pattern appears to be forming, increasing the likelihood of a move down towards the next target at 1.3445.

The US dollar gained support from the latest labour market data. On Tuesday, the JOLTS job openings report showed an unexpected rise to 7.391 million in April, well above the consensus forecast of 7.167 million. This indicates continued resilience of the US labour market and reinforces expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance, putting pressure on the GBPUSD rate.

Investor focus now shifts to the upcoming US data. The ADP private sector employment report is due today, followed by the key May employment data on Friday, which could heavily influence the pair’s next move.

Read this article on RoboForex website - GBPUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

The Fed under pressure, market on hold: gold (XAUUSD) poised for rally

Gold continues to form a pullback, and prices may fall to 3,338 USD as part of a corrective wave. Discover more in our analysis for 5 June 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• US initial jobless claims: previously at 240 thousand, projected at 236 thousand
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 5 June 2025: 3,338 and 3,410

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD outlook for 5 June 2025 considers gold maintaining resilience, trading near 3,370 USD per troy ounce. Investors remain cautious ahead of the US Non-Farm Payrolls report (NFP), which could shape market direction.

Gold prices are supported by weak US economic data, including a decline in the services PMI to 49.9 and ADP employment growth of just 37 thousand. These figures reinforce expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.

US initial jobless claims represent the number of people who claimed unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment.

The previous reading stood at 240 thousand, with the XAUUSD price forecast suggesting a slight drop to 236 thousand. Although the change is marginal, if the actual figure matches or exceeds expectations, it could affect XAUUSD quotes.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY climbs: what should traders expect from the US jobs report?

The USDJPY pair continues to strengthen ahead of the key US jobs report release, currently trading at 143.93. Discover more in our analysis for 6 June 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Investors adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls release
• Speculation of BoJ policy tightening grows but remains insufficient to lift the yen
• USDJPY forecast for 6 June 2025: 145.35

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is rising for the second consecutive session, staying within a sideways range between 142.50 and 144.20. The chart continues to indicate the potential formation of a Double Bottom reversal pattern, which could signal further strengthening of the US dollar.

The Japanese yen remains under pressure as investors wait for the crucial US employment report. Additional support for the US dollar came from news of a phone call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, in which both leaders agreed to continue trade negotiations.

Meanwhile, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated the central bank’s readiness to raise interest rates if economic and inflation targets are met. Although this has raised expectations of a cautious but steady policy tightening, it remains insufficient to boost the yen, according to today’s USDJPY forecast.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

The dollar falls – EURUSD rises: what’s next?

The drop in Nonfarm Payrolls has hit the US dollar, with EURUSD continuing its upward move towards 1.1460. Discover more in our analysis for 9 June 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Nonfarm Payrolls data weakened the US dollar
• The ECB may pause its rate adjustments
• EURUSD forecast for 9 June 2025: 1.1460

Fundamental analysis

Today’s EURUSD forecast favours the European currency. After the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls report, the dollar keeps losing ground against the euro. The actual figure came in at 149K, down from 142K in the previous period. While the drop might seem marginal at first glance, combined with other weak US macro data, it exerted pressure on the dollar and triggered an upward move in EURUSD.

Investors are growing cautious about the weakening US dollar and seeking safe havens for their assets. Meanwhile, after initiating a rate cut cycle, the ECB has signalled a possible pause in further rate moves, which has strengthened the euro and supported the current rally in EURUSD.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Deal of the century or a bubble? Brent pushes to new highs

Brent prices have reached their highs and may extend gains towards 68.50 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 10 June 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Brent has surpassed its May peak
• OPEC+ increases oil production
• Brent forecast for 10 June 2025: 68.50

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis of Brent for today, 10 June 2025, takes into account that prices have renewed their May highs, climbing to 66.90 USD per barrel ahead of the results of another round of negotiations between Washington and Beijing. Optimism surrounding the resolution of trade tensions fuels demand for commodities and reinforces price momentum.

Iran is preparing a counterproposal for the US regarding the nuclear deal. Against this backdrop and following the breakout above the recent high, Brent shows resilience despite ongoing uncertainty.

The Brent forecast also takes into account increased OPEC+ production, with Iraq lagging, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE continuing to ramp up output. However, caution remains warranted – an oversupply by the end of 2025 could weaken the market and trigger a correction in Brent prices.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Brent Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US budget blowout and inflation surprise – gold (XAUUSD) poised to soar

The US federal budget deficit could trigger a rally in XAUUSD towards the 3,400 USD level. Find more details in our forecast for 11 June 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• US Consumer Price Index (CPI): previously at 2.3%, projected at 2.5%
• US federal budget statement: previously at 258.0 billion, projected at -314.3 billion
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 11 June 2025: 3,400

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental XAUUSD analysis for today, 11 June 2025, takes into account that gold prices hold steady above 3,300 USD per troy ounce, maintaining their upward trajectory amid lingering uncertainty in US-China trade relations.

The XAUUSD forecast for 11 June 2025 suggests the CPI could rise to 2.5% from the previous 2.3%, but this projection may not materialise given the index has shown consistent declines in past reports. A weaker-than-expected CPI could put additional pressure on the US dollar.

Additionally, the US federal budget statement is projected to show a drop to -314.3 billion USD. The negative value indicates the budget deficit, which may further weaken the US dollar.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDCAD at eight-month low, driven by oil rally

The USDCAD pair pulled back to 1.3600. The market favours CAD strength amid the oil price rally and domestic news from Canada. Find out more in our analysis for 16 June 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• The USDCAD pair drops to its lowest level in eight months
• Oil rally and domestic signals support the CAD
• USDCAD forecast for 16 June 2025: 1.3566

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD rate declined to 1.3600 on Monday, marking a fresh eight-month low.

Several factors bolster the Canadian dollar. Firstly, support comes from the oil price rally, with Brent prices rising due to Middle East instability. This is particularly important for Canada, where oil is a major export commodity. Secondly, there is growing speculation that the US Federal Reserve may resume rate cuts if the US economy starts losing momentum again.

Additional backing for the Canadian currency came from the announcement of an early increase in defence spending. Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that Canada would meet NATO’s 2% of GDP defence spending target in the current fiscal year, five years ahead of schedule. This news may help reduce friction in the upcoming trade negotiations with the US.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDCAD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY set to extend rally: yen remains under pressure

The USDJPY pair climbed to 144.76, with the yen facing pressure from the lack of a trade deal with the US. Find more details in our analysis for 17 June 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair continues to rise for the third consecutive day
• The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged at 0.5%
• There is no progress in Japan-US trade talks so far
• USDJPY forecast for 17 June 2025: 145.13 and 145.47

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate rose to 144.76, with a variety of key developments surrounding the Japanese yen.

Firstly, markets reacted to the Bank of Japan's neutral stance on interest rates. On Tuesday, the central bank held the rate steady at 0.5% per annum. In its statement, the BoJ confirmed it will gradually scale back government bond purchases, in line with prior guidance.

Second, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and US President Donald Trump failed to reach a tariff agreement during the G7 summit in Canada.

Meanwhile, the US dollar continued to strengthen amid rising geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, increasing demand for safe-haven assets.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

GBPUSD under pressure: chance of retesting lows

The GBPUSD pair remains under pressure near 1.3440. Macroeconomic data and lingering trade deal uncertainties with the US weigh on the pound. Discover more in our analysis for 18 June 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• The GBPUSD pair tested May lows and paused
• Investors await UK inflation data for May
• GBPUSD forecast for 18 June 2025: 1.3414

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD rate attempts to stabilise near 1.3440 on Wednesday after recent heavy selling.

Markets are keeping a close eye on Middle East tensions while also awaiting May inflation data, due later today, and a possible rate change on Thursday.

The pound remains weighed down by recent data and external factors such as US trade tariffs. Earlier, US President Donald Trump signed a deal easing some tariffs on British goods, confirming quotas and duties on vehicles and eliminating aerospace sector tariffs. However, steel and aluminium issues remain unresolved.

Today’s inflation data in the UK could show a slight decline to 3.4%, which would be a moderately positive signal. Overall, current high inflation is seen as temporary, and a comprehensive US-UK trade agreement could help reduce associated risks.

Read this article on RoboForex website - GBPUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team