HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 7th September 2026.

NFP Shocks Markets as Fed, ECB, and Middle East Risks Take Focus.

Strong US employment data makes an interest rate hike almost certain, pressuring Gold, certain stocks, and supporting the Dollar. At the same time, Middle East tensions continue to rise as Iran and the US target tankers. Lastly, Germany, the largest European economy, has seen its far-right party win in regional elections.

The US will witness lower order flow due to today’s bank holiday. Nonetheless, the market is still likely to witness high volatility as investors price in recent developments. In addition to this, investors will now turn their attention to the upcoming European Central Bank rate decision, US producer inflation, and consumer inflation.

German Election, European Central Bank and the Euro​

The Euro is trading slightly higher during this morning’s Asian session, but this is a minor bullish bias. Investors are attempting to remain calm as local elections continue to indicate a switch towards the far right. According to economists, far-right governments do not necessarily mean a negative impact on the Euro, but instability would. For example, if governments are unable to form in Germany, Italy, and Spain, similar to France, the Euro could come under pressure.

Nonetheless, for now, the far-right win in Germany is not negatively impacting the Euro. In fact, the Euro is finding some support from expectations that the European Central Bank will increase rates on Thursday. Markets expect the ECB to increase its main refinancing rate from 2.40% to 2.65%. This would take the ECB’s rate to an 18-month high.

The EUR this morning is performing particularly well against the NZD, but as the NZD is the worst-performing of the day so far, traders should be cautious of a correction. Currently, the EUR/NZD is above the 200-bar moving average on the 5-minute chart and is above the VWAP. However, the RSI is trading in the negative zone, which again may indicate a correction. If the price rises above 1.97770, bullish signals can remain. If the price falls below the 1.97543 support level, indications will turn bearish.

Gold and NFP​

The latest US non-farm payrolls report showed a much stronger-than-expected employment sector. The release was the largest surprise since April 2026, with the economy adding 162,000 jobs in August, almost three times the market forecast of around 56,000.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%. The labour force participation rate rose to 61.6%, providing further evidence that labour market conditions remain relatively resilient. According to economists, there is now very little reason for the Federal Reserve not to hike interest rates. Now, 60% of investors believe the Federal Reserve will hike on 16 September.

The stronger employment data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates at its September meeting, particularly as policymakers continue to monitor elevated inflation.

Following the report, US Treasury yields and the Dollar moved higher, while Gold came under pressure, as markets increased their probability of a September rate hike. Attention now shifts to the upcoming US inflation data, which could be decisive for the Fed’s next move.

Gold came under instant pressure after the release, falling 2.40% in a period of 45 minutes. However, Gold has not maintained its bearish momentum, but still retains its bearish bias on certain timeframes, such as the 30-minute chart. On the 5-minute timeframe, the price is attempting to break above the 200-bar moving average. If the price breaks above this level at $4,418.50, bullish signals may materialise.

HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart

A positive factor for Gold is that the US Dollar Index is trading lower this morning. However, traders should note that certain price movements may be due to low order flow because of the US bank holiday.

Crude Oil - Middle East Tensions Rise​

The US-Iran conflict escalated further over the weekend as Iran said it targeted three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, describing the attacks as retaliation for US strikes on Iranian vessels. The US had earlier hit three Iranian crude carriers after American warships came under ballistic missile attack.

The latest developments have sharply increased risks to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This has pushed oil prices higher and raised concerns over prolonged supply disruptions from the Middle East. Crude oil prices came close to reaching a new monthly high but have found resistance. This comes as Iran says negotiations with Oman are progressing positively despite the weekend’s developments.

HFM - Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart

Key Takeaways:​

• Strong NFP boosts Fed hike expectations: The US added 162,000 jobs in August, well above forecasts, increasing expectations for a September rate hike.
• Gold remains under pressure: Gold fell sharply following the NFP release as Treasury yields and the US Dollar strengthened, although some recovery attempts have emerged.
• Oil supported by Middle East tensions: Escalating US-Iran tensions and attacks involving oil tankers have increased concerns over potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
• ECB and European politics in focus: The Euro remains supported by expectations of an ECB rate hike, while Germany’s regional election results add further political uncertainty for investors.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 8th September 2026.

Japanese Yen Hits February High as BoJ Rate-Hike Expectations Rise.

The Japanese Yen continues to increase in value, rising to its highest level since February. The rise in value is due to expectations of a more hawkish Bank of Japan and currency intervention. According to the Japanese government, as well as many institutions on Wall Street, this price movement is different and may not simply lose momentum like previous interventions.

BoJ - Two Rate Hikes on the Table​

Many economists believe the recent strengthening of the Japanese Yen could be different from previous moves. One key reason is the prospect of further tightening from the Bank of Japan. While even the more hawkish forecasts generally point to quarterly rather than back-to-back rate hikes, expectations are building that the BoJ could raise rates again before the end of the year.

Prime Minister Takaichi’s economic adviser, Takuji Aida, recently indicated that he expects a September rate hike followed by quarterly increases. Most economists do not expect consecutive hikes. Nevertheless, a second hike before year-end remains a possibility.

This creates the potential for the BoJ to tighten monetary policy at a faster pace than the Federal Reserve over the medium term. As a result, the Japanese Yen has continued to strengthen across the currency market, while USD/JPY has come under increasing downward pressure.

Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan’s global head of economics, said that the bank forecasts two adjustments before year-end. Markets themselves are pricing in roughly a 60% chance of another move by December after the expected September hike. Bank of America also backs two hikes, with its economists advising quarterly hikes, including September and December 2026. According to reports, its foreign exchange team has also turned bullish on the Japanese yen for the rest of 2026.

Higher Exchange Rate to OffSet Higher Oil Prices​

Japan is extremely exposed to imported energy. More than 90% of Japan’s crude oil imports come from the Middle East. The government also stated earlier that roughly 93% of its crude imports normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz. For this reason, it is vital for the government and Bank of Japan to boost the currency in order to purchase energy products more easily.

Governor Ueda has specifically identified the weak Yen and geopolitical developments in the Middle East as factors that could increase inflation risks. These risks will be considered when deciding whether to raise interest rates further. If the Bank of Japan adjusts rates from 1.00% to 1.50% by 2027, it would take the rate to the highest level since 1995.

GBP/JPY and CHF/JPY​

HFM - GBPJPY 30-Minute Chart

Even though the USD/JPY is one of the most popular assets to be traded, other currency pairs are also interesting. Investors should note that the Federal Reserve is also looking to hike interest rates, and it's a safe haven currency. For this reason, at times, the US Dollar may also experience strong gains. The US Dollar is the second-best-performing currency this year after the Australian Dollar. By contrast, the Swiss Franc and British Pound are among the weakest-performing currencies of 2026 so far.

The GBP/JPY is trading lower this morning falling particularly in the first half of the Asian session. The pair is currently rated ‘Strong Sell’ on the 30-minute, hourly, 4-hour, and daily timeframes. However, on smaller timeframes, traders are cautious of the retracement that is forming. The RSI is not indicating an oversold price due to the retracement, while the MACD remains negative.

Importantly, the price remains below the 20, 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages. The price is trading at a key support level from earlier in the year, but if the price drops again below 207.383, sell indications remain.

The CHF/JPY is witnessing a similar condition to the GBP/JPY but is experiencing stronger bearish momentum. However, on larger timeframes, CHF/JPY is witnessing an oversold indication on the RSI.

Key Takeaways:​

• The Japanese Yen has strengthened to its highest level since February.
• Expectations are increasing for further Bank of Japan rate hikes before year-end.
• Higher oil prices are adding to inflation risks and increasing the importance of a stronger Yen.
• GBP/JPY and CHF/JPY remain under downward pressure as the Yen continues to strengthen.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 9th September 2026.

Tanker Strikes, Missiles Over Jordan: How the Gulf Escalation Is Repricing Oil, Gold, and the Yen.

Oil markets just went from ‘watch closely’ to ‘impossible to ignore.’ Brent crude is trading within a whisker of $100 a barrel for the first time since July, and the driver isn’t a slow-burning supply story, it’s an active military escalation between the US and Iran that’s now spilling into Jordan and the Gulf shipping lanes. For traders, this is the kind of setup that demands a plan before the next headline hits, not after.

Why Oil Is Suddenly the Market's Main Story​

Over the past 48 hours, US forces reportedly destroyed several Iranian crude tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island, a key export terminal. Iran responded by launching ballistic missiles towards a US-linked base in Jordan. Most were intercepted, but the exchange marks a sharp escalation from where this conflict stood even a week ago. Add in Houthi strikes that forced Saudi Arabia to pause activity at some of its own energy facilities, and you have three separate flashpoints hitting oil supply confidence at once.

Brent is currently changing hands near $99.50, with WTI just under $95. Both benchmarks are up more than 60% year-to-date, and traders are increasingly pricing in the risk that this isn't a short-lived spike but a structurally tighter supply environment heading into next year.

For traders, the key levels to watch:

• $100 on Brent: a clean psychological breakout level that could trigger momentum buying if broken decisively.
• Kharg Island and Strait of Hormuz headlines: any reporting of shipping disruption through Hormuz (roughly a fifth of global oil flows) is a volatility trigger regardless of the time of day.
• Weekly API and EIA inventory data: now carry extra weight as a read on how much physical disruption is actually reaching supply.

Given the headline-driven nature of this move, wider stops and reduced position sizing on oil CFDs are worth considering until the geopolitical picture stabilises.

Equities Are Split Between Fear and the AI Trade​

Global stock markets are sending two different signals depending on where you look. Broad indices are cautious to negative, the Dow and S&P 500 both fell as US trading resumed this week, and European futures have been soft, as rising energy costs feed into inflation worries and rate uncertainty.

At the same time, chip and AI-linked names are still finding buyers. South Korea's KOSPI has been the standout, climbing again on strength in SK Hynix and Samsung, and is now up roughly 67% year-to-date, making it one of the best-performing major indices globally. Fresh corporate news, including a major cloud provider signing on as both customer and investor in a leading chipmaker, plus continued strong demand signals from equipment makers, is keeping the AI infrastructure narrative alive even as broader risk sentiment sours.

What this means for index and single-stock traders: correlation between ‘risk-off’ and ‘sell everything’ is breaking down. It is worth separating oil-sensitive, rate-sensitive sectors, such as airlines, discretionary retail, and high-multiple growth outside AI, from the semiconductor and AI infrastructure complex, which is currently trading on its own fundamentals rather than the macro backdrop.

The Yen Is Quietly One of the Biggest Stories in FX​

While oil dominates headlines, the Yen has been on a multi-day advance, recently trading near ¥153.4 to the dollar. Part of this is classic risk-aversion flow into a funding currency, but there is a policy angle too: the US Treasury Secretary has taken an unusually public stance encouraging Yen strength, and markets are increasingly pricing in a Bank of Japan rate hike at next week’s meeting, following stronger-than-expected wage and growth data out of Japan.

A hawkish BoJ combined with a Fed that may be forced to hold rates due to oil-driven inflation risk is a setup that could keep USD/JPY under pressure. For traders running carry-trade-style long-dollar, long-yield positions, this is worth reassessing, the unwind of yen-funded carry trades has historically produced some of the sharpest, fastest FX moves of any G10 pair.

Friday’s CPI Print Is the Week’s Real Catalyst​

Everything above ultimately funnels into one data point: Friday’s US Consumer Price Index release. Markets are watching to see whether higher gasoline costs from the oil spike are already showing up in the headline number, and whether core inflation (excluding food and energy) confirms the disinflation trend or stalls out.

A hot CPI print, arriving on top of an oil shock, would materially raise the odds of the Fed staying restrictive at its September 15-16 meeting, a scenario that would likely support the dollar and pressure gold and equity indices simultaneously. A softer print would do the opposite and could see risk assets rally even with oil elevated.

Gold is holding firm near $4,390-$4,400 an ounce, caught between two competing forces: safe-haven demand from the Middle East conflict on one side, and the risk of higher-for-longer rates on the other. This tension makes gold particularly sensitive to how the CPI surprise breaks, a rare setup where both the geopolitical and monetary policy narratives are pulling in opposite directions at the same time.

The Trader’s Checklist for the Rest of This Week​

1. Set alerts around $100 Brent and any Strait of Hormuz shipping headlines, this market can gap on weekend and overnight news.
2. Watch Thursday’s PPI as a preview before Friday’s CPI, since producer prices often hint at where consumer inflation is heading.
3. Track USD/JPY into the BoJ meeting, a hawkish surprise there could compound dollar weakness already in play.
4. Keep an eye on the oil-versus-AI divergence in equities, a single ‘risk-off’ label doesn't capture what's happening beneath the index level right now.
5. Size positions for headline risk, not just technical setups, in an active-conflict market, the next catalyst can come from a wire headline as easily as from a chart level.

This is a market where the macro picture is unusually clear. Middle East tensions are pushing oil higher, oil pushing inflation risk higher, inflation risk pushing rate expectations higher, and rate expectations are pressuring equities, but the timing and magnitude of each leg remain genuinely uncertain. That combination of clarity and uncertainty is exactly why volatility, and trading opportunity, are likely to stay elevated through Friday’s CPI release and beyond.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 10th September 2026.

ECB Rate Decision and US PPI: EUR/USD Outlook.

The Euro edges higher on Thursday as the European Central Bank’s rate decision edges closer. Markets expect the ECB to increase interest rates from 2.40% to 2.65% taking the main refinancing rate to an 18-month high. The Euro will be influenced by the rate decision, but also largely from the guidance given during the press conference. However, the US Producer Price Index may also impact the Euro, as the Dollar is its main competitor.

Later this afternoon, the US will announce its Producer Price Index (producer inflation), followed by the consumer inflation figure tomorrow. If the US inflation is higher than expectated and the ECB’s President, Christine Lagarde, is not hawkish enough, the Euro may decline. Currently, the worst-performing currency of the day is the US Dollar. The Euro is the third-best-performing after the Swiss Franc and New Zealand Dollar.

Euro and the ECB Rate Decision​

The 25-basis-point hike is fully priced into the Euro and European indices. For this reason, a rate hike is not adequate to maintain bullish price movement. The key for investors will be Christine Lagarde’s comments on future rate hikes and inflation in the EU.

Eurozone headline inflation jumped from 2.9% to 3.3% in August, largely because of energy prices. At the same time, Brent crude has moved back above $100, increasing the risk that energy inflation spreads into transportation, manufacturing, and eventually consumer prices.

If President Lagarde indicates that today's hike may not be enough, markets will start pricing the deposit rate at 2.75%. Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, and BNP Paribas are among those now expecting another 25-basis-point hike in December. This would be positive for the Euro and negative for European indices.

Interestingly, the ECB may raise its 2026 growth projection because the economy has performed better than expected. Stronger growth gives the ECB more room to hike without fearing an immediate recession or economic slowdown. As the EU is a net importer of oil, higher oil prices are also key to the Eurozone’s monetary policy.

From recent speeches and interviews, certain ECB members are looking to vote for a hike. These include Germany’s Joachim Nagel, as well as Isabel Schnabel and Olli Rehn. However, others are more reluctant, such as Philip Lane. Though it is vital that traders remember that developments across the Atlantic will also be key for the Euro.

US Dollar and US Inflation​

Producer inflation figures can be just as important for the Fed’s decision as the CPI. For this reason, many traders are eagerly watching today’s event. Traders should note that last month’s PPI announcement prompted double the amount of volatility compared with CPI.

Currently, there is roughly a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike, while economists surveyed by Reuters still mostly expect the Fed to leave the 3.50-3.75% rate unchanged. That disagreement means that today’s inflation figure will be even more important and could trigger new impulse waves.

Analysts expect the Producer Price Index to have risen 0.4% in August and the core figure to have risen 0.3%. If the figure reads higher than the expected, the US Dollar could rise and the Euro could decline. Tomorrow’s CPI figure could also have a similar impact but may experience slightly less volatility.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis​

HFM - EURUSD 1-Hour Chart

In terms of technical analysis, the Euro has a slight edge over the US Dollar for the time being. The price is trading above the key moving averages on most timeframes, but is also at a neutral level on the RSI. During the Asian session, the price of the EUR/USD rose but is now trading sideways. Investors are most likely awaiting for the latest data to be made public.

If the price rises above 1.16405, buy signals could start to materialise from the breakout and bullish crossover. However, traders should be cautious of the resistance levels at 1.16535 and 1.16795. However, if the PPI release pushes the price down, with a weaker PPI reading, sell signals may potentially materialise at 1.16340 and 1.16290.

Key Takeaways:​

• The ECB is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points, but Lagarde’s guidance on future hikes will be more important for the Euro.
• Higher Eurozone inflation and rising oil prices could strengthen the case for further ECB tightening later this year.
• US PPI and CPI will be key for Fed expectations, with stronger-than-expected inflation likely to support the US Dollar.
• EUR/USD remains technically supported, with 1.16405 as a key upside trigger and resistance around 1.16535–1.16795.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 14th September 2026.

NASDAQ Falls as AI Concerns, Fed Outlook, and Oil Prices Drive Risk-Off Sentiment.

AI companies are clashing with the White House over developing AI products. The NASDAQ fell 1.30% on Monday as Wall Street turn ‘risk-off’ due to a potential AI slowdown. In addition to this, investors turned their attention to key central bank decisions, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan.

The decline is not only seen among tech-stocks, indices globally are trading lower. The worst performing indices are the Nikkei 225, NASDAQ, and the Euro Stoxx 50. The downward pressure seen in the equity market is partially due to the talk of slowing down AI development, but also due to a more hawkish global monetary policy. The market now expects the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan to hike by 0.25% this week.

The best-performing currencies of the day are the US Dollar, Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc. The worst-performing are the New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar.

NASDAQ - AI Slow Down Gets President Trump’s Attention​

The NASDAQ saw a relatively strong and rare bearish price gap this morning. The decline is a combination of three developing stories: the AI slowdown, higher oil prices, and the upcoming Fed decision.

OpenAI was the first major AI company to call for slower development to improve safety and reduce potential future risks. After the comments by OpenAI’s CEO, the NASDAQ saw some decline but was able to bounce back the next day. However, Anthropic has now also taken a similar tone and caught the attention of the White House.

As a result, investors are not waiting for clarity, they are selling now and asking questions later. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has suggested allowing independent third-party evaluators to assess new AI systems before launch, an approach OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has also said he supports and plans to adopt.

The White House has pushed back against calls to slow AI development, with President Trump arguing that maintaining America’s technological lead over China is a priority. Trump acknowledged that some safeguards may be necessary but dismissed warnings around AI, stating that ‘whoever wins AI wins.’ His administration favours industry-led safety measures and opposes restrictions that could slow US innovation or allow China to close the gap.

HFM -NASDAQ 3-Hour Chart

The NASDAQ's price movement will now depend largely on whether the government and AI companies can calm investors’ nerves. Another key factor will be the Federal Reserve’s guidance on future rate adjustments.

The bearish price gap has taken the index down to the key support level. Downward price movement over the past month has been unable to break below this support level. If the price does fall, lower bearish indications are likely to materialise. When monitoring only the daily price movement, the price is forming a descending triangle pattern, which is known to indicate bearish sentiment. In the short term, bearish signals are likely to remain while the price trades below $29,046.85 and strengthen below $29,000.00.

US Dollar - Fed and Oil Prices​

A positive factor for the US Dollar is the expectation for an upcoming interest rate hike and higher oil prices. According to the Chicago Exchange, the possibility of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday evening is 90%. The rate hike is almost fully priced into the market, but not completely. Therefore, the hike could trigger volatility, but the key price drivers will most likely be the Fed’s tone and oil prices.

Oil prices have now remained above $100 for almost three days. Oil prices rose sharply at the start of the week, with Brent crude climbing above $108 per barrel as tensions in the Middle East intensified. The main concern is the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s key East-West pipeline following drone attacks, reducing an important alternative route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.

Simultaneously, continued Houthi attacks and renewed threats around major shipping routes have increased fears of further supply disruptions. If the Federal Reserve provides a hawkish tone and oil prices remain close to $100 per barrel, the US Dollar could maintain bullish price movement.

Of particular interest is the EUR/USD, which has fallen below the support level and is experiencing strong bearish price action.

Key Takeaway Points:​

• AI slowdown concerns and White House opposition are increasing uncertainty across the technology sector and weighing on the NASDAQ.
• Global equity markets are under pressure as investors prepare for potentially more hawkish decisions from major central banks.
• The US Dollar remains supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike and elevated oil prices.
• Brent crude above $100 continues to raise inflation concerns and increase volatility across financial markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 15th September 2026.

NASDAQ Rebound Ends as US Bond Yields Break Above 5%.

Technology stocks attempt a rebound after declining to a five-week low. However, fundamentals continue to weigh on demand as yields and oil prices rise. The US 10-year bond yield has now reached the highest level since 2007 and risen above the critical 5% mark. Oil prices also continue to remain above $100 and have reached a high of $103.45.

In addition to volatility among technology stocks, the US Dollar also moves higher and is the best-performing currency. The worst-performing currencies are the Japanese Yen and New Zealand Dollar. Market indications continue to point towards investors pricing in more frequent rate hikes, lower consumer sentiment, and higher credit risk. A key indication that investors are paying close attention to is bond yields rising to levels that indirectly contributed to the 2007-2008 financial crisis.

NASDAQ Rebound Fails as Investors Await AI Clarity​

The NASDAQ has fallen 0.30% this morning and 1% from the most recent high. Investors on Monday did take advantage of the lower purchase price, which boosted demand as a result. However, many elements continue to point towards the possibility of stock market weakness.

A key development is in the AI sector which continues to see AI companies and the White House clash. Lawmakers are developing legislation to address AI safety concerns. This includes a bipartisan group of senators working on measures that would require leading AI developers to take steps to prevent catastrophic risks.

White House advisor David Sacks advises that AI-companies are looking for the government to loosen legislation related to antitrust and reliability. According to experts, this is not likely to change, and for this reason, AI-companies will look to slow production to closely monitor risks. Traders should keep in mind that AI development has been one of the key drivers of the market’s bullish trend over the past three years. A key risk for investors is the possibility that this momentum weakens, removing an important source of support for the broader market.

In addition to this, tomorrow’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the Chair’s tone are likely to create considerable volatility. Currently, investors are pricing in up to two interest rate hikes in 2026. If the Fed hikes tomorrow evening and takes a hawkish tone, demand for stocks could fall.

HFM - NASDAQ 12-Minute Chart

Currently, the price remains below key moving averages and below the VWAP. Order flow is also indicating weakness in demand. If the price falls below $29,004.38, sell signals from technical analysis are likely to strengthen. If the price rises above $29,215.65, sell signals in the short term will be completely erased.

GBP/USD - US Dollar Rises While UK Employment Weakness Pressures the Pound​

The British Pound is coming under pressure from the most recent employment data. The UK’s monthly benefit claims have risen by almost 28,000, significantly higher than previous expectations. The figure is also a three-month high and is considerably weaker compared to the latest US NFP data. In addition to this, the market continues to expect the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, unlike the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank.

The US Dollar Index rose 0.20% during this morning’s Asian session and is also close to forming a bullish breakout. Supporting the US Dollar is the increase in bond yields and rate-hike expectations. The fact that US 10-year bond yields have risen above 5% could trigger lower risk appetite. This could also support the US Dollar due to its safe haven-status.

The price of the GBP/USD is forming clear bearish swings and lower highs. Technical indicators also point towards a bearish bias, but investors will be cautious of the support level at 1.34630. Bearish sentiment is likely to remain while the GBP/USD remains below the 200-bar moving average at 1.34915.

HFM - GBPUSD 12-Minute Chart

Key Takeaways:​

• Technology stocks remain under pressure despite attempts to rebound from recent five-week lows.
• US 10-year bond yields above 5% are increasing concerns around borrowing costs and financial conditions.
• Oil prices above $100 are reinforcing inflation concerns and adding pressure on broader market sentiment.
• The US Dollar is strengthening as investors price in further rate hikes and rising risk aversion.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date: 16th September 2026.

Fed Rate Decision in Focus: GBP/USD, S&P 500, and Gold Outlook.

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, while the Middle East and the AI slowdown take a back seat. Market participants are pricing in a rate hike of 0.25% which would be positive for the US Dollar but more or less negative for all other assets. However, a key element will be the Federal Reserve’s tone during the press conference.

The US Dollar Index rose to a two-week high this morning but has since lost momentum. Oil prices also continue to rise, putting further pressure for the Federal Reserve to continue hiking in the coming months. Lastly, Gold and equities continue to remain weak, but are not currently declining.

GBP/USD - Markets Price In Fed Rate Hike​

Of particular interest to traders who are looking to trade the Dollar long is the GBP/USD. The GBP is coming under pressure from the latest weak employment data and expectations of a Bank of England pause. The Bank of England will announce its rate decision on Thursday and is likely to be the only central bank among the ‘top four’ currencies not to hike this month. The European Central Bank adjusted rates by 0.25% last week, and markets expect the Fed and Bank of Japan to do the same this week.

The Pound is not the worst-performing currency of the week nor the month, however, it is the worst-performing currency of the past 24 hours. If the Fed and the BoJ both hike and sound relatively hawkish, the GBP may become unattractive in the medium term.

Currently, the bond market is indicating a hawkish Federal Reserve, however, the Fed Chair is not likely to give concrete guidance. Nonetheless, his tone on inflation could become extremely influential. If the Federal Reserve seems willing to hike consecutively, the US Dollar could again find support and again rise above 100.000.

HFM - GBP/USD 30-Minute Chart

The GBP/USD on a 1-hour timeframe is forming a descending triangle pattern, which indicates low demand for the pound. In addition to this, the GBP/USD is trading below the key moving averages on most timeframes. In the past hour, the bearish momentum has continued to gain speed as UK inflation failed to rise above expectations. As a result, a pause from the Bank of England now appears more likely.

S&P 500 - Sellers Remain Active​

The S&P 500 is experiencing impulse waves in both directions as there clearly seems to be a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Nonetheless, bearish impulse waves remain slightly larger than bullish ones. Currently, the stock market is under pressure from the possibility of an AI slowdown, higher oil prices, geopolitical tensions, US-Canadian tariffs, and the possibility of multiple rate hikes.

The VIX Index trades slightly lower during this morning’s session, providing a slight positive for equities. However, the put-to-all ratio continues to indicate that sellers remain active.

In the short medium term, tonight’s Fed decision and press conference are likely to be the main price drivers. Currently, 93% of investors believe the Fed will hike tonight, but only 43% believe it will hike in October. If the possibility of an October rate hike increases, the stock market could continue to come under strain. Sell signals are likely to strengthen significantly if the price falls below $7,591.65. At this price, 65% of the retracement would have been lost, shifting momentum back in favour of sellers.

Gold Prices Spike Before Fed Decision​

During this morning’s Asian session, Gold witnessed strong gains. However, volatility remains uncertain until the market obtains clarity from the Federal Reserve. However, Gold remains under pressure on certain timeframes despite attempting to rebound. With spot gold trading near $4,328 today, the immediate technical picture remains neutral to bearish while price stays below $4,360–$4,380. A sustained break above this resistance could open the door toward a more bullish outlook.

However, in the short term, the bullish momentum from this morning is pushing the price above moving averages and the VWAP. Therefore, on certain timeframes, the indications are bullish. If the price falls back below $4,303, bullish signals will also fade on smaller timeframes.

HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart

Key Takeaway:​

• Markets are focused on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and guidance on future hikes.
• The US Dollar remains supported, while GBP/USD faces pressure from weaker UK fundamentals.
• The S&P 500 remains vulnerable as sellers stay active ahead of the Fed announcement.
• Gold is attempting to recover, but remains below key resistance levels in the short term.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 17th September 2026.

A Hawkish Fed Hike: What’s Next For the Market?

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the first time in three years, but what does it mean for the market? The US central bank has raised its Federal Funds Rate from 3.75% to 4.00%. Markets traditionally consider a rate above 4.00% to be restrictive. Markets are broadly interpreting the press conference after the rate decision as hawkish.

In response, the US Dollar Index rose 0.70% and is yet to form a bearish correction. Gold fell more than 3.00% due to the Fed’s stance but has since risen by 1.40%. Lastly, the S&P 500 fell almost 1.60% but has almost fully regained its losses. Nonetheless, the Fed’s hawkish stance is generally considered to be negative for both Gold and the stock market.

Federal Reserve Rate Hike and Hawkish Press Conference - US Dollar Index​

The Federal Reserve raised its main rate from 3.75% to 4.00% in line with market expectations. However, despite the market pricing in a rate hike, the US Dollar Index still rose 0.20% immediately after the change. The subsequent press conference and dot plot helped maintain momentum throughout the US and Asian sessions.. The Dollar has been slightly weakening as the European open edges closer.

An important factor to the Dollar’s rise was the fact that the decision was unanimous. There was a 95% chance of the Fed increasing rates, according to most exchanges. However, most economists believed some of the dovish members might stick to the decision to hold. All 12 members voted for a rate hike.

The dot plot was also one of the most hawkish signals. The September projections showed that 16 of 18 policymakers expect at least one additional 25-basis-point hike before the end of 2026. The median projection puts rates at around 4.00-4.25% by year-end, versus the new 3.75–4.00% range today. Oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, meaning that the current hawkish signal may become even stronger in October.

Kevin Warsh’s press conference was clearly hawkish, but analysts do not class it as aggressively hawkish. Nonetheless, Mr Warsh told journalists that the economy is strong and becoming more resilient over the years. In addition to this, the Fed chair told the market that the ‘the economy is not the problem, inflation is’. Lastly, this morning the former Fed governor told Bloomberg that three rate hikes over the next 12-months sounds too high.

GBP/USD - BoE to Opt for a Hawkish Pause?​

Most economists continue to believe the Bank of England will pause but may have a slight hawkish tilt. The Pound Index is witnessing no gains or losses, while the US Dollar is seeing a slight gain this morning. Most of the Dollar’s bullish price movement was seen yesterday evening after the Fed’s rate decision. The GBP/USD will continue to be under the influence of the hawkish Fed up to the upcoming NFP and inflation data. However, in the short-term, today’s Monetary Policy Committee’s votes are likely to trigger the main volatility.

Currently, markets are expecting three members of the MPC to vote for a hike, while six vote for a pause. If only two vote for a hike, the GBP could come under immense pressure. If more than three vote for a hike, the GBP/USD could attempt a full price correction despite the difference in the countries’ monetary policies.

HFM - GBPUSD 30-Minute Chart

The GBP/USD is showing a bearish technical structure across all main timeframes. On the 5-minute chart, momentum remains negative, although the pair is becoming oversold, meaning a short-term corrective rebound is possible before sellers potentially return. The 30-minute chart shows a bearish trend, with the price trading below its key short-term moving averages and continuing to form lower highs and lower lows. On the daily chart, the exchange rate has broken beneath the 200-day moving average, strengthening the bearish technical outlook.

In the short-term, sell signals are likely to remain unless the price rises above 1.33865, and buy signals are unlikely to materialise unless the price rises above the 200-bar moving average at 1.33980.

Key Takeaways:​

• The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate hike in three years, moving policy into a more restrictive range.
• A unanimous vote and the Fed dot plot indicate a further hike, helping push the US Dollar higher.
• Gold and stocks initially came under pressure. Gold fell sharply and the S&P 500 declined after the decision, although both later recovered part of their losses.
• The GBP/USD is under pressure from the stronger Dollar, while today’s Bank of England vote split could drive the next major move.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date: 18th September 2026.

Why Is the Japanese Yen Falling After the BoJ Rate Hike?

The Bank of Japan has raised rates to their highest level since the 1990s, but the Japanese Yen is still declining? The US Dollar rose 0.75% against the Japanese Yen in the hours after the announcement. The Japanese Yen is currently the worst-performing currency of the day and the week. Why is the Japanese Yen declining?

Bank of Japan - Rate Hike Not Enough When Global Banks Outpace You​

The Bank of Japan’s main interest rate has risen from 1.00% to 1.25%, the highest since 1995. The BoJ has also hiked the fastest pace since 1990. Hikes and higher interest rates are traditionally positive for the currency. However, the Japanese Yen is coming under immense pressure in the short term.

The main reason for the decline is the split decision and the general central bank stance in September. In September, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, as well as others, took a relatively hawkish tone. As a result, economists believe most central banks will continue hiking in autumn and winter. Therefore, for the Japanese Yen to gain, the Bank of Japan needed to sound equally hawkish.

The main issue for the market was the split decision. The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank made unanimous decisions to increase rates, whereas the Bank of Japan’s voting committee saw two members vote for a pause, not a hike. Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato voted against the hike, signalling some resistance to accelerating the pace of rate increases to the fastest level in more than three decades.

Previously, investors were expecting a rate hike from the BoJ, with a further hike in December. Now, the market is likely to remove the pricing for an additional hike. Lastly, the BoJ is expected to keep rates unchanged for the rest of the year, while other central banks may raise rates by another 0.25%. This wider interest-rate gap could weaken the Japanese Yen and make it more attractive again for carry trades.

Lastly, the Japanese Yen was trading more than 5% higher against the US Dollar meaning investors looking to buy would have found the USD/JPY attractive. Technical analysis for the Japanese Yen will follow below.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis​

HFM - USDJPY 15-Minute Chart

On the 5-minute and 30-minute charts, USD/JPY remains strongly bullish following the BoJ decision. The price is clearly trading above key moving averages and at elevated levels on oscillators. Short-term momentum remains positive, although the sharp rise has pushed the market into overbought territory. Even though the RSI indicates that the price is overbought, price action will not indicate a bearish move unless the price falls below 156.870.

On the 4-hour chart, the broader recovery remains bullish after USD/JPY rebounded from 152.89 earlier this month and broke above the important 156.50 resistance area. Holding above this level would keep buyers in control, with 157.70-158.00 becoming the next area to watch. However, a move back below 156.50, and particularly below 155.45, would weaken the bullish structure and increase the possibility of a deeper correction.

GBP/JPY - Technical Analysis​

The British Pound is also one of the weakest-performing currencies of the week, and the Bank of England was one of the only central banks to pause in September.

Nonetheless, on the 5-minute and 30-minute charts, GBP/JPY is showing strong bullish momentum following the BoJ decision. Moving averages are firmly positive and momentum indicators remain bullish, although the RSI has moved into overbought territory, suggesting the possibility of a short-term pullback. Immediate resistance is around 210.10-210.35, followed by 210.70, while 209.40 and 208.80 are the main short-term support areas.

On the 4-hour chart, the broader structure also remains bullish, supported by the latest breakout above 209.00. As long as GBP/JPY holds above 208.50-209.00, buyers remain in control, and a sustained break above 210.35-210.70 could open the way for further upside.

HFM - GBPJPY 30-Minute Chart

Key Takeaways:​

• The BoJ raised its policy rate to 1.25%, the highest level since 1995.
• The Yen weakened as the split vote reduced expectations for further near-term rate hikes.
• A wider interest-rate gap with other major central banks could continue to pressure the Yen.
• USD/JPY and GBP/JPY remain technically bullish, although short-term momentum is approaching overbought levels.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 21st September 2026.

Bitcoin Price Hits $85K as Stocks Rally: Can BTC Reach $90K?.

The Bitcoin price climbed to $85,000 for the first time in eight months on Monday, extending a sharp recovery from below $80,000 as technology stocks rallied and oil prices moved lower. The move puts Bitcoin at an important technical crossroads and raises a broader question for traders: is the latest surge simply a cryptocurrency breakout, or is a wider risk-on trade developing across global markets?

Bitcoin is not rallying alone. US equity futures advanced on Monday, led by technology and AI-related stocks, while Asian share markets also moved higher. At the same time, crude oil prices declined by around 2%, helping Treasury yields ease after the sharp rise seen over recent weeks.

This combination is particularly interesting because the rally is taking place despite a more restrictive monetary environment. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates last week, bond yields remain elevated and markets continue to consider the possibility of additional tightening. Yet Bitcoin has moved through $85,000 and technology shares are once again attracting buyers.

For traders, the interaction between Bitcoin, the Nasdaq, oil and US Treasury yields may therefore provide a better indication of whether the rally can continue than Bitcoin's price alone.

Bitcoin Price Breaks $85,000: Why the Level Matters​

Bitcoin's move to $85,000 comes only days after the cryptocurrency traded below $80,000, highlighting how quickly short-term momentum has changed.

The $85,000 level carries more significance than an ordinary point on the chart. It is a major round-number price, represents a fresh high for the recovery and marks a level Bitcoin has not reached for eight months. These psychological levels often attract additional activity because traders may use them to take profits, initiate new positions or adjust existing exposure.

Reaching $85,000 therefore demonstrates strong buying momentum, but the next test is whether Bitcoin can remain above it. A brief move through resistance followed by a sharp reversal would indicate that sellers are still active around the level. By contrast, a daily close above $85,000 followed by buyers defending the area during subsequent pullbacks would provide stronger evidence that previous resistance is turning into support.

The rally is also notable because Bitcoin has absorbed several potentially negative developments. The Federal Reserve raised rates last week, while the US Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, which had been intended to establish a broader regulatory framework for digital assets. The legislation collapsed after months of negotiations and disagreement between lawmakers, banking groups and parts of the crypto industry.

Bitcoin initially experienced volatility around these developments but ultimately recovered. That reaction matters because markets sometimes reveal more through their response to negative news than through the news itself. When an asset absorbs bearish developments without extending its decline, it can indicate that selling pressure is becoming less effective.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Recovered as BTC Broke Higher​

Institutional demand provides another important part of the current Bitcoin outlook.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a modest $6.1 million net inflow between September 14 and September 18, but the weekly total hides considerable volatility underneath. The funds attracted $159.9 million on Monday before investors withdrew $450.4 million on Tuesday and another $295.9 million on Wednesday, producing combined midweek outflows of more than $746 million.

The picture changed sharply toward the end of the week. Bitcoin ETFs attracted $159.5 million on Thursday before inflows accelerated to $433 million on Friday. Fidelity's FBTC accounted for $310.7 million of Friday's buying, while BlackRock's IBIT contributed another $108.4 million.

The weekly total was therefore close to flat, but the direction of institutional demand changed significantly during the final two sessions.

For traders, the next ETF flow reports could be particularly important now that Bitcoin has reached $85,000. Continued inflows alongside a sustained breakout would suggest institutional demand is supporting the move. A return to significant withdrawals, on the other hand, could make traders more cautious about the durability of the rally.

ETF flows should not be viewed as the only measure of Bitcoin demand, since they represent activity in US-listed funds rather than the entire global market. However, the strong recovery in flows at the end of last week makes them an important indicator to monitor as Bitcoin attempts to establish itself above $85,000.

Why Are Bitcoin and Stocks Rallying Together?​

Bitcoin's breakout is occurring alongside a broader improvement in equity sentiment.

US stock futures moved higher on Monday, with Nasdaq futures gaining more than 1% during early trading as AI-related and technology shares led the advance. Asian equity markets also strengthened, particularly in technology-heavy South Korea and Taiwan.

This suggests Bitcoin's rally may not be purely crypto-specific. Instead, several risk-sensitive assets appear to be benefiting from an improvement in investor sentiment.

Bitcoin and technology stocks are fundamentally different assets, but both can be highly sensitive to changes in financial conditions. Technology company valuations are particularly affected by interest rates because a large proportion of their value can depend on expected future earnings. Higher bond yields increase the discount rate applied to those earnings, while falling yields can provide some relief.

Bitcoin does not generate traditional corporate earnings, but its performance has also frequently been influenced by global liquidity, interest-rate expectations and broader investor appetite for risk. When investors become more willing to hold higher-volatility assets, both cryptocurrencies and technology shares can benefit.

This is where another market like crude oil, becomes particularly important.

Falling Oil Could Be Helping Bitcoin and the Nasdaq​

Oil prices declined to an 11-day low on Monday as markets reacted to expectations of potential diplomatic progress involving Iran and signs of a partial recovery in Saudi oil shipments. Brent crude fell by around 2%, while WTI also moved lower.

For equity and cryptocurrency traders, the significance of lower oil prices extends beyond the energy market.

Oil is an important component of global inflation. Sustained increases in crude prices raise transportation and production costs and can eventually feed through to consumer prices. When inflation pressure rises, investors may expect central banks to maintain higher interest rates or tighten monetary policy further.

The reverse can also occur. If oil prices continue to decline, some of the inflation pressure facing central banks could ease. On Monday, the decline in crude contributed to lower US Treasury yields while equity futures moved higher.

This creates an important cross-market relationship for traders: lower oil can reduce inflation concerns, which can ease pressure on bond yields and create a more supportive environment for risk-sensitive assets such as technology stocks and Bitcoin.

The relationship is not automatic, and many other factors influence these markets. However, as long as oil and Treasury yields remain under pressure while Bitcoin and equities move higher, the broader risk-on argument gains additional support.

The Federal Reserve Remains the Main Challenge​

The major contradiction in the current rally is that monetary policy remains restrictive.

The Federal Reserve recently delivered its first rate increase in more than three years, while expectations of further tightening have remained present in financial markets. Bond yields have also risen considerably, creating more challenging financial conditions for both consumers and companies.

Bitcoin and technology stocks are therefore not rallying because markets suddenly expect aggressive monetary easing. Instead, they are advancing despite a hawkish Fed.

That makes Treasury yields particularly important in determining what happens next.

If yields stabilise or continue to fall as oil prices retreat, one of the biggest macroeconomic pressures facing risk assets would become less severe. Bitcoin and technology stocks could potentially benefit from that environment.

However, if bond yields resume their climb, the rally could face another significant test. Higher yields make lower-risk fixed-income assets relatively more attractive while increasing financing costs and placing additional pressure on high-valuation growth assets.

The current market is therefore testing whether improving risk sentiment can overcome restrictive monetary conditions.

Trump-Xi Summit Adds Another Market Catalyst​

Another important event this week is the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Xi is scheduled to visit the United States from September 23 to September 25, with Trump and Xi set to meet at the White House on Thursday, September 24. Trade relations are expected to be among the major subjects under discussion.

Markets have been paying close attention to US-China relations because changes in tariffs and trade policy can influence global growth expectations, supply chains and technology companies in particular. The summit is therefore another potential source of volatility for equities and, indirectly, broader investor risk sentiment.

For traders, the focus will be on concrete developments emerging from the meeting rather than simply whether diplomatic language appears positive or negative. Any material changes involving trade or other economic measures could influence stocks, currencies and commodities and potentially spill over into cryptocurrency sentiment.

Bitcoin's breakout is therefore occurring just as another potentially significant macroeconomic catalyst approaches.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Can $85,000 Become Support?​

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin reaching $85,000 shifts the question from whether the cryptocurrency can reach resistance to whether it can establish itself above it.

Trading activity has increased substantially alongside the rally. Bitcoin futures trading volume has risen by more than 60% over the past 24 hours to approximately $78.6 billion, indicating greater participation as BTC tests the breakout area.

Momentum indicators are also strong. The daily Relative Strength Index has reached approximately 70, placing Bitcoin in the traditionally overbought region, while the MACD remains firmly in positive territory.

An RSI around 70 does not necessarily mean Bitcoin must reverse. During strong trends, markets can remain overbought for extended periods as momentum traders continue entering the market. However, elevated momentum indicators increase the importance of watching whether price action begins to weaken or diverge from the indicators.

The first major level is now $85,000. A firm daily close above it, followed by continued trading above the level, would strengthen the breakout case and shift attention toward the next psychological target.

That target is $90,000.

If Bitcoin can establish itself above $90,000, the market would increasingly begin to focus on $100,000. However, six figures should not be treated as an automatic destination. Bitcoin would still need to absorb potential selling between $90,000 and $100,000, and stronger ETF demand alongside supportive broader financial conditions would make the technical case more convincing.

On the downside, a rapid return below $85,000 would indicate that sellers have successfully defended the breakout area. In that scenario, $80,000 would become the next major psychological level to monitor. A sustained move below $80,000 would weaken the near-term bullish structure considerably.

What Should Traders Watch Next?​

The next phase of Bitcoin's move may become clearer by analysing several markets together.

If Bitcoin holds above $85,000 while ETF inflows continue, the immediate technical picture would remain constructive. If Nasdaq and other technology shares advance at the same time, that would suggest the rally is receiving confirmation from broader investor risk appetite rather than being confined to cryptocurrency markets.

Oil and Treasury yields provide the other side of the equation. Continued weakness in crude could reduce inflation concerns, while stable or falling yields would ease some of the pressure created by restrictive monetary policy.

The strongest cross-market confirmation would therefore be a combination of Bitcoin holding above $85,000, technology stocks continuing to rise, oil remaining under pressure and Treasury yields stabilising or falling.

A reversal in those relationships would warrant greater caution. A renewed surge in oil, another sharp increase in bond yields and weakening Bitcoin ETF demand could make it considerably more difficult for BTC to sustain its breakout.

Can Bitcoin Reach $90,000 and Eventually $100,000?​

Bitcoin's move to $85,000 after trading below $80,000 only days earlier represents a significant change in short-term momentum. The recovery in ETF demand, stronger equity markets and decline in oil prices have created a more supportive environment for the cryptocurrency.

However, several risks remain. The Federal Reserve continues to maintain a restrictive stance, Treasury yields remain elevated, Bitcoin's momentum indicators are stretched and geopolitical developments could quickly change investor sentiment.

For now, $85,000 is the key level determining whether Bitcoin's breakout can develop into a larger move. Holding above it would keep $90,000 in focus, while a successful move through $90,000 could gradually strengthen the technical case for a future test of $100,000.

For traders, though, Bitcoin's chart should not be viewed in isolation. The more important story may be developing across markets.

If Bitcoin and technology stocks continue rising while oil falls and Treasury yields remain contained, the current move would increasingly resemble a broader risk-on rotation. If those relationships begin to reverse, Bitcoin's $85,000 breakout could face its first serious test.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 22nd September 2026.

Gold: US-China Talks and Technical Analysis.

Gold trades lower and is once again approaching the key $4,250 support level. Following the decline triggered by the Federal Reserve’s latest rate decision, the precious metal attempted to recover and initially posted a positive rebound. However, buyers failed to break through key resistance levels, causing momentum to fade.

Gold is now coming under renewed pressure from expectations of another interest-rate hike, strong corporate earnings, lower oil prices, and improving risk sentiment surrounding this week’s US-China talks. Gold prices have now been falling for two consecutive days, declining almost 2%.

US-China Talks Boost Sentiment And Pressure Gold​

The US-China talks are having its ripple effect throughout most tradable assets, the two largest economies discuss AI, trade, and security. So far, the Chinese Vice President has met with the US Treasury Secretary. The US President, Donald Trump, and Chinese leaders will meet on Thursday.

The effect on Gold at the momentum is negative, as the talks are having a positive impact on investor sentiment. As investors believe tariffs could be reduced or the trade truce extended, fears of a major trade confrontation are decreasing. Investors are becoming more comfortable holding equities and other risk assets, reducing demand for Gold as a safe haven.

The key issue isn’t necessarily whether Washington and Beijing resolve everything. Current reporting suggests the talks are focused more on maintaining stability and extending existing arrangements. Nonetheless, extending these agreements on a positive note can provide stability. The market’s risk appetite is primarily driven by stability and the absence of fear. For this reason, Gold is failing to maintain bullish momentum.

However, if US-China relations deteriorate or the two sides fail to reach an agreement on an extension, Gold could suddenly rise again. This could reverse the current bearish indications seen on certain charts.

Gold Pressures - Rate Hike Expectations and Higher Bond Yields​

In addition to the US-China talks, Gold is also facing pressure from a stronger US Dollar and higher Treasury yields. Expectations that US interest rates will remain higher for longer have supported the Dollar, making Gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies. At the same time, higher bond yields reduce some of Gold’s appeal compared with yield-bearing assets. As other yield-bearing investments perform well, the need for Gold as a safe-haven asset declines.

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook remains one of the biggest headwinds. Following its latest rate hike, markets are increasingly considering the possibility of another increase later this year. Last night, two members of the Federal Open Market Committee said an additional hike was possible. Expectations of tighter monetary policy support both the US Dollar and yields. This creates a challenging environment for Gold, which tends to thrive when yields are lower and risk sentiment weakens.

Lower oil prices have also removed some support for the precious metal. Falling energy prices can reduce inflation concerns and ease geopolitical risk premiums, weakening demand for Gold as both an inflation hedge and safe-haven asset. However, the decline is not yet enough to reduce expectations of further rate hikes.

At the same time, stronger equity markets and improving risk sentiment, helped by encouraging US-China trade discussions, have encouraged investors towards riskier assets. In addition, expectations of higher earnings and the AI trend continue to gain momentum. Together, stronger risk appetite, a firm Dollar, elevated yields, and expectations of further Fed tightening continue to keep Gold under pressure.

Gold - Technical Analysi​

HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart

Gold has been trading lower throughout the Asian session and particularly during the first half of the European session. On most timeframes, the precious metal is showing a bearish bias. However, on smaller timeframes, such as the 1-minute and 5-minute charts, the price quickly spiked by 0.79%. At the same time, the US Dollar Index and bond yields recorded similar upward movements.

Nonetheless, on the larger timeframes, the price is trading with lower lows and lower highs despite the retracement. In addition, the price is trading below the key moving averages on all timeframes, but is at the RSI’s neutral level. If the price rises above $4,342.00, the asset will begin to trade above the 200-bar moving average, potentially indicating a bullish breakout. At this level, sell signals will not be visible on smaller timeframes. If the price falls back below $4,307.50, sell signals could strengthen again based on momentum indicators and price action.

Key Takeaway:​

• Gold falls nearly 2% in two days, approaching the $4,250 support level.
• Higher bond yields, a stronger Dollar and further Fed hike expectations are pressuring Gold.
• Positive US-China talks are improving risk sentiment and reducing safe-haven demand.
• Technically, $4,342 is key resistance, while a move below $4,307.50 could strengthen bearish signals.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

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Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 23rd September 2026.

Oil Slides as Bonds Rally: Iran Diplomacy Lifts Market Sentiment.

Global financial markets are finding some relief as oil prices extend their decline, easing concerns that elevated energy costs could keep inflation and interest rates higher for longer.

Government bonds and US Treasury futures strengthened on Wednesday as crude oil fell for a sixth consecutive session. At the same time, technology shares continued to benefit from renewed optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, helping Asian equities build on recent gains.

However, the broader market environment remains far from settled. Investors continue to monitor diplomatic developments involving the United States and Iran, expectations for further Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes, and the upcoming US-China talks.

Oil Prices Fall as Supply Concerns Ease​

Oil remains one of the most important drivers of global market sentiment.

Brent crude fell below $99 per barrel during Wednesday’s Asian session, extending a decline that has significantly reduced prices from their recent Middle East conflict-driven highs. US crude also traded around the $90 level.

Two developments have helped ease fears of an immediate supply shortage.

First, Saudi Arabia has restarted operations at its East-West Pipeline following disruptions earlier in September. The pipeline allows Saudi crude to reach the Red Sea port of Yanbu, providing an alternative export route that reduces reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reported that operations had resumed, although a full restoration of capacity could take several weeks.

Second, markets are responding to renewed diplomatic efforts surrounding the conflict with Iran. US President Donald Trump said discussions with Iran had made progress and expressed expectations that an eventual settlement could be reached, although his comments have continued to include strong warnings towards Tehran.

The possibility of greater oil flows through the region is particularly important. Iran has indicated that reopening the Strait of Hormuz could form part of a diplomatic process if US pressure is reduced. Any sustained improvement in shipping conditions could remove some of the geopolitical premium that pushed energy prices sharply higher earlier this year.

Higher oil prices can feed directly into headline inflation through fuel, transportation, and production costs. When energy prices rise sharply, investors may expect central banks to keep interest rates elevated for longer, usually putting upward pressure on government bond yields.

The opposite dynamic is now offering some relief. A sustained decline in oil could therefore become increasingly important for bonds. If lower energy prices eventually translate into softer inflation, investors may reduce expectations for additional monetary tightening.

For now, however, that scenario is far from guaranteed.

Federal Reserve Keeps the Dollar Supported​

Despite falling oil prices, the US Dollar remains close to its strongest level in around two months as traders continue to price in the possibility of further Federal Reserve rate increases.

The Fed raised interest rates last week, and several policymakers have since indicated that inflation remains a concern. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said price pressures were not limited to energy and tariffs, pointing to strong consumer demand and broader economic momentum.

Markets have consequently continued to debate whether the Fed could raise rates again at its October meeting. Futures pricing recently showed roughly even odds of another 25-basis-point increase.

This expectation has helped the US Dollar Index remain around the 100 level, while the euro has traded close to multi-week lows.

The Japanese yen has also remained under pressure near 157 per Dollar. Although the Bank of Japan recently raised its policy rate to 1.25%, two dissenting votes and limited guidance over future tightening left investors questioning how quickly Japanese interest rates could rise from here.

AI Optimism Pushes Technology Stocks Higher​

While energy and bond markets focus heavily on geopolitics and inflation, equity investors have another major theme to consider: artificial intelligence.

Renewed enthusiasm surrounding AI helped the NASDAQ reach a fresh intraday record this week. Technology and semiconductor stocks have regained momentum after concerns earlier in the year over AI investment costs and the speed at which companies could generate returns from their spending.

That optimism has spread into Asian markets.

MSCI’s broad Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose around 0.7% on Wednesday and headed towards a sixth consecutive session of gains. South Korean equities advanced as semiconductor shares strengthened, while Taiwan’s market moved close to record territory.

Lower oil prices are providing another tailwind. Cheaper energy can reduce inflation expectations, limit pressure on bond yields, and improve the outlook for corporate margins, particularly in energy-intensive industries.

The combination of softer crude and renewed AI enthusiasm has therefore improved risk sentiment even while geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated.

US-China Talks Become the Next Major Market Focus​

Attention is also shifting towards talks between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Officials from both countries have recently described preparatory discussions covering trade, artificial intelligence, and investment in positive terms, although significant disagreements remain.

For financial markets, the key issue is whether the talks can prevent another escalation in tariffs, technology restrictions, or critical-mineral controls.

Even limited progress could reduce another source of uncertainty for global equities. Conversely, renewed tensions between the world’s two largest economies could quickly challenge the recent improvement in market sentiment.

Gold Remains Pressured by Higher Rate Expectations​

Gold has struggled to benefit significantly from geopolitical uncertainty as rising interest-rate expectations and a stronger Dollar offset safe-haven demand.

Spot gold traded around $4,345 per ounce early Wednesday. Higher interest rates tend to create a headwind for bullion because gold does not generate interest, while a stronger US Dollar increases its cost for buyers using other currencies.

The metal may therefore remain caught between two opposing forces: geopolitical uncertainty supporting demand, and expectations of tighter monetary policy limiting upside momentum.

What Markets Are Watching Next​

The immediate market outlook is increasingly tied to the direction of oil.

Further progress towards diplomatic arrangements involving Iran, improved shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, or additional Saudi supply could extend the decline in crude. That would potentially reduce inflation fears, support government bonds, and provide a more favourable environment for equities.

However, the geopolitical situation remains highly uncertain, meaning another escalation could quickly reverse the recent move.

At the same time, Federal Reserve communication remains crucial. Falling oil alone may not be enough to prevent further rate hikes if US policymakers continue to see persistent inflation across services and consumer demand.

For now, markets are benefiting from an unusual combination: oil prices are falling, bond-market pressure is easing and AI optimism is supporting equities. Whether that environment lasts will depend heavily on what comes next from the Middle East, the Federal Reserve and US-China negotiations.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.