HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 29th October 2025.

NASDAQ Forecast: Earnings And Market Drivers.

The NASDAQ climbed to a new all-time high on Tuesday and surpassed the DAX for the first time in 2025. The NASDAQ is now the second best-performing index of the year so far, behind the Nikkei225 and slightly ahead of the German DAX. The bullish price movement gathered momentum after NVIDIA’s CEO expressed optimism about the artificial intelligence (AI) and Technology sectors.

The trend was also fuelled by expectations of easing US–China trade tensions. Optimism grew further ahead of major quarterly earnings reports from leading technology companies.

Market participants are focusing on the quarterly earnings reports from the ‘Magnificent-Seven’. After the market closes, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta will all release theirearnings reports. The most influential report will be from Microsoft and Alphabet due to holding a higher weight. Together, the three companies hold a weight of 25%.

• Microsoft - Rose +1.98% on Tuesday - Earnings Per Share Prediction = $3.65
• Alphabet - Fell .67% on Tuesday - Earnings Per Share Prediction = $2.26
• Meta - Rose +0.08% on Tuesday - Earnings Per Share Prediction = $6.61

If all three companies exceed expectations and provide upbeat guidance for the next quarter, the NASDAQ is likely to maintain its bullish momentum. Lastly, on Thursday investors will shift their attention to earnings reports from Apple and Amazon, which are also part of the ‘Magnificent-Seven’.

One of the reasons why Microsoft has seen stronger gains over the past 24 hours is the new agreement with OpenAI. The new agreement allows the ChatGPT creator to shift from its non-profit origins and prepare for a potential IPO to fund Sam Altman’s ambitious AI and data centre plans. Under the new structure, OpenAI will operate as a public benefit corporation still overseen by a nonprofit. Altman stated that an IPO is the most likely route to raise the funds needed for advanced AI development.

Microsoft stocks are also rising a further 0.50% during this morning’s pre-market trading session.

Investor sentiment has improved significantly with President Trump’s Asia tour, his agreement with China, and the upcoming meeting with President Xi. However, another key price driver has been NASDAQ’s most influential stock: NVIDIA. NVIDIA’s CEO, Jensen Huang, told journalists that he has no concerns about an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble.

Mr Huang stated that NVIDIA's latest chips remain strong and on schedule. He also revealed that, due to US export controls, NVIDIA’s market share in China has dropped from 95% to effectively zero, remarking ‘we are 100 % out of China.’

NVIDIA’s stocks rose 4.98% on Tuesday and have since gained a further 1.69% during this morning’s Asian Session. NVIDIA is due to release its quarterly earnings report on 19 November after the market closes. The stock has risen 45% so far in 2025.

Investors are focused on tonight’s US Federal Reserve meeting, where a 25-basis-point rate cut from 4.25% to 4.00% is widely expected to support a cooling labour market. With inflation steady at 3.0%, the Fed has room to ease policy, although uncertainty remains due to limited economic data. Markets will also watch for signals of another potential rate cut later this year and in January.

NASDAQ Daily Chart


The NASDAQ continues to form higher highs and higher lows following the classic bullish trend pattern. The index is also trading above the main trendlines as well as above the day’s volume-weighted average price (VWAP). Most momentum-based indicators continue to point towards further upward price movement.

However, investors should also be aware of the risks associated with the prices trading at all-time highs as well as a potential change in sentiment if earnings reports fail to meet expectations. A decline of more than 5% would suggest that the upward trend may be at risk.

• NASDAQ hits a new all-time high, surpassing the DAX and becoming 2025’s second-best-performing index behind the Nikkei 225.
• Tech optimism surges after NVIDIA’s CEO dismisses AI bubble fears, while Microsoft and OpenAI announce a major restructuring deal.
• Focus shifts to ‘Magnificent Seven’ earnings, with Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta expected to drive short-term NASDAQ momentum.
• The Federal Reserve meeting remains in focus, with a 25-basis-point rate cut expected and investors watching for signals of further easing.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 30th October 2025.

Alphabet Leads Tech Gains as US–China Deal Lifts Market Sentiment.

Investors have plenty to digest this week, with volatile earnings results, interest rate cuts, and hawkish comments from central banks. The Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan have announced their interest rate decisions and held press conferences. In addition, tech giants including Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta have released their quarterly earnings reports.

Some aspects of the latest developments have been positive, while others have been negative. As a result, most asset classes have experienced mixed price movements. However, the main factor driving optimism is the trade agreement between the US and China.

US President Donald Trump’s tour of Asia which is drawing to a close. Before returning to the US, President Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Busan Airport amid heightened tensions over tariffs, TikTok, and rare earth minerals.

Political analysts have expressed optimism about the outcome of the meeting and comments made from both sides. President Xi stated that the two countries had reached an agreement to resolve ‘major trade issues.’

China has agreed to pause new rare-earth export restrictions for one year, with annual reviews planned. Trump said the issue is ‘settled’ for now, while China has also resumed purchases of US soybean, signaling a renewal in agricultural trade. Maintaining stability is now the main priority, as past periods of trade optimism have often been followed by renewed tariffs and tensions.

This development is having a positive impact on the market’s risk appetite. This is reflected in the VIX index, which is trading 1.50% lower, and the Put/Call Ratio, which has again declined towards the 0.60 level. However, technical analysts warn that if the Put/Call Ratio falls below 0.60, the stock market may experience profit-taking and resistance.

Investors had been eagerly awaiting for the earnings reports from major technology companies. In the first half of the year, the NASDAQ experienced a market decline of 26% and within six months recovered only 6-7%. The index was lagging behind Asian and European stocks with most investors suggesting that the US market required stronger bullish catalysts-potentially from earnings results.

On Wednesday, after market close, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta released their third-quarter earnings reports. The main takeaways are as follows:

Microsoft stocks Fall 3.95% After Earnings Release-the company’s revenue and earnings per share were slightly above expectations but not enough to significantly boost demand. Microsoft’s record $35 billion AI spending raised concerns over margins, while its forecast of persistently high costs unsettled investors.

Alphabet stocks rise 6.70% After Earnings Report-the company's revenue was higher than predictions set by analysts. The Earnings per share came in 7% higher than previous forecasts.

Meta stocks fall 7.40% After Earnings Report-the company was unable to beat earnings and revenue expectations. However, the main concern for investors was that tax-related charges reduced earnings and the company warned that expenses would increase in 2026.

The standout performer was Alphabet which not only impressed with beating earnings expectations but also through user growth. Alphabet reported record quarterly revenue of $102.3 billion, up 16% year on year and above expectations, driven by growth in its Cloud and YouTube divisions. The company’s record $91–93 billion in capital spending highlights its aggressive investment in AI infrastructure.

NASDAQ (USA100) 30-Minute Chart

During the US trading session the NASDAQ experienced three major price waves on the shorter timeframes. The first when the Federal Reserve confirmed its decision to cut rates by 0.25% which triggered a brief decline. The price quickly recovered but then fell again as Jerome Powell’s press conference was more hawkish than markets had anticipated. The index later rebounded following the announcement of Alphabet’s earnings report, which drove the price to a new all-time high.

The key support level can be seen at $25,929.30 and the resistance level at $26,287.65. Although the index was unable to maintain its bullish impulse wave momentum, it has remained above key technical levels and the VWAP.

• Markets remain volatile as investors react to earnings results, rate cuts, and hawkish central bank commentary.
• The new US-China trade agreement boosts global risk appetite, easing tensions over tariffs and rare-earth exports.
• Alphabet leads technology gains with strong earnings and record AI investment, while Microsoft and Meta stocks decline.
• The NASDAQ reaches a new all-time high after Alphabet’s results, supported by optimism despite mixed market sentiment.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.