HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 4th August 2026.

Global Stocks Near Records as Yen and Oil Stay Volatile | Eyes on US Jobs7.

Global stock markets are trading close to record levels after a technology-led rebound on Wall Street improved investor sentiment following a highly volatile month.

However, the market outlook remains sensitive to several major developments. Traders are closely monitoring the impact of coordinated US-Japan intervention in the currency market, renewed volatility in oil prices, geopolitical tensions involving Iran, and the upcoming US employment report.

Technology earnings are also returning to the spotlight as investors assess whether the substantial investment directed towards artificial intelligence is beginning to generate stronger revenue and profits.​

Global Stock Markets Remain Near Record Highs​

The MSCI All Country World Index remained close to 1,130, slightly below its record high of 1,136.59.

US stocks strengthened during Monday’s session, led by large technology companies. The rally moved the S&P 500 closer to its all-time high, while index futures subsequently climbed to record territory.

NASDAQ 100 futures also rose approximately 0.6%, indicating that demand for technology stocks remained positive heading into Tuesday’s trading session.

European stock futures pointed towards a stronger opening, although Asian markets delivered a more mixed performance.

The latest recovery follows a turbulent period for the technology sector. Investors have increasingly questioned whether the billions of dollars being spent on artificial intelligence infrastructure will produce sufficient growth and profitability.

Until recently, much of the AI-related investment interest had focused on semiconductor producers, data centre providers, and other companies supplying the infrastructure required to develop artificial intelligence.

Attention may now be shifting towards businesses that can use AI to improve their products, reduce costs, or increase earnings.

This change could become an important theme for technology markets. Investors may increasingly distinguish between companies simply spending heavily on AI and those demonstrating measurable financial returns from that investment.

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Palantir Rallies After Raising Its Forecast​

Palantir Technologies gained approximately 14% in extended trading after the company raised its financial forecasts.

The strong reaction suggests that investors remain willing to reward companies that can demonstrate clear revenue growth linked to artificial intelligence.

The announcement also supported broader optimism towards technology stocks following Monday’s strong Wall Street session. A gauge of major technology companies recorded its best daily performance since March, while semiconductor shares rose by approximately 1%.

Nevertheless, volatility remains elevated.

Technology-focused investment funds have experienced significant fluctuations as expectations surrounding AI spending, valuations, and future profitability continue to change.

Amazon shares fell approximately 1.6% in post-market trading after Chairman Jeff Bezos disclosed plans to sell shares. The decline followed a three-day rally that had lifted Amazon’s market value to around $3 trillion.​

SpaceX Earnings Enter the Spotlight​

Another major event for technology investors is the first earnings report from SpaceX as a publicly traded company.

The report could test investor demand for highly valued technology and aerospace businesses, particularly after the recent volatility in AI-related shares.

Markets will be watching SpaceX’s revenue, profitability, capital expenditure, and forward guidance. Investors may also focus on the performance of its launch operations and satellite-related businesses.

The earnings report comes before a potentially significant increase in the company’s available share supply. As much as $116 billion in stock could become eligible for sale for the first time next month.

Large share unlocks can affect market prices if early investors, employees, or other shareholders decide to sell part of their holdings.​

Yen Weakens After Historic US-Japan Intervention​

The Japanese yen declined around 0.3% during the Asian session, trading close to 157.70 against the US dollar.

The pullback followed a gain of more than 4% over the previous four trading days after the United States and Japan carried out coordinated yen-buying intervention.

The operation represented the first coordinated intervention of its kind since 1998 and pushed the yen sharply higher from a four-decade low near 164 per dollar.

The intervention has now shifted market attention towards the 155 level in USD/JPY.

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Why USD/JPY at 155 Is Important​

The 155 level is viewed as an important test of whether the yen’s recovery can develop into a more sustained trend.

Previous Japanese intervention in April and May briefly pushed USD/JPY towards this area. However, the pair subsequently recovered, leading traders to question whether direct intervention can create lasting currency strength without broader changes in monetary and fiscal policy.

A decisive move below 155 could alter market behaviour.

Traders who previously bought USD/JPY during declines may become more cautious, while Japanese exporters could increase their dollar sales as the currency pair moves outside its recent trading range.

The yen’s recovery could also accelerate because of speculative positioning.

Asset managers and leveraged funds reportedly hold their largest net short yen positions since 2024. If USD/JPY falls below 155, some investors may be forced to reduce these positions by purchasing yen.

This type of short squeeze could potentially push USD/JPY towards 152.

The currency pair has already moved below its 200-day moving average near 158 for the first time since October, adding further technical significance to the recent decline.​

Can the Yen Maintain Its Recovery?​

Despite the intervention, some analysts remain cautious about the yen’s longer-term outlook.

The US dollar continues to offer a considerable yield advantage over the Japanese currency. That advantage could widen further if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates while the Bank of Japan continues to tighten policy gradually.

Some strategists expect investors to resume using the yen as a funding currency once the threat of further intervention decreases. Under this scenario, USD/JPY could eventually recover towards the 160-162 region.

Market activity already indicates that some traders are taking profits following the intervention-driven move.

For the yen to achieve a more sustainable recovery, investors may need stronger evidence that Japan’s broader policy direction is changing. This could include faster interest rate increases from the Bank of Japan, greater fiscal discipline, and continued coordination between Japanese and US policymakers.​

Oil Rebounds as US-Iran Uncertainty Continues​

Oil prices rose after recording their largest daily decline in a week.

Brent crude traded near $85 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate moved above $81. The rebound followed a decline of almost 5% during Monday’s session.

The latest price movement reflects uncertainty surrounding negotiations involving the United States and Iran.

US President Donald Trump described his latest diplomatic offer as Iran’s ‘last chance’ and said he expected the Strait of Hormuz to reopen fully.

Iran denied that direct negotiations with the United States were taking place. However, Tehran said discussions with Oman regarding the movement of ships through the Strait were progressing.

The conflicting statements highlight the uncertainty surrounding diplomatic efforts.

Oil prices could continue to react sharply to any indication of military escalation, successful negotiations, or improved shipping conditions.​

Strait of Hormuz Remains a Major Market Risk​

Commodity flows through the Strait of Hormuz have slowed considerably.

Before the conflict, the Strait handled approximately one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas flows. Any prolonged disruption could reduce global supply and place upward pressure on energy prices.

Concerns increased after a cargo vessel northeast of Al Khasab, Oman, reported being struck by an unidentified projectile.

Meanwhile, activity increased at Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu export terminal on the Red Sea. The port provides an alternative route that allows some Saudi oil exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

However, security risks also remain present in the Red Sea, where vessels have faced threats near the Bab El-Mandeb shipping route.

Additional supply risks are emerging from the war in Ukraine. Refineries, tankers, pipelines, and other Russian oil infrastructure were reportedly targeted at least 30 times during July, the second-highest monthly total since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022.

Together, these developments indicate that oil prices may remain volatile even if diplomatic discussions between the United States and Iran continue.​

Treasury Yields Rise as Oil Prices Recover​

US Treasury prices gave back part of Monday’s gains as oil prices rebounded.

The 10-year Treasury yield increased by approximately two basis points to 4.69%.

Energy prices can influence government bond markets because higher oil costs may contribute to inflation. If inflation remains elevated, the Federal Reserve may have less flexibility to lower interest rates.

Alternatively, a sustained decline in oil prices could reduce inflationary pressure and support expectations of less restrictive monetary policy.

This relationship means that developments in the Middle East may continue to influence currencies, bonds, and equities, as well as the energy market.​

US Employment Data Becomes the Next Major Test​

Investors are now preparing for several US employment reports, with Friday’s nonfarm payrolls release expected to be the most important economic event of the week.

The report could provide clearer evidence regarding the strength of the US labour market and the likely direction of Federal Reserve policy.

Stronger-than-expected job creation could increase expectations that interest rates will remain high or rise further. This could support the US dollar and Treasury yields, but create pressure on interest rate-sensitive stocks.

Weaker employment growth could reduce rate expectations, although an unexpectedly sharp slowdown might also raise concerns about the economic outlook.

Recent manufacturing data showed that US factory activity expanded in July at its fastest pace in more than four years. Production increased strongly, while companies also added workers.

The figures suggest that parts of the US economy remain resilient heading into the latest employment report.​

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What Should Traders Watch Next?​

Market sentiment remains constructive, with global equities trading close to record levels and technology shares attracting renewed demand.

However, several developments could determine whether the rally continues.

For stock traders, earnings growth and evidence of financial returns from AI investment may become increasingly important. For currency traders, the 155 level in USD/JPY represents a key technical and policy-related threshold.

Oil traders will continue monitoring diplomatic developments involving the United States and Iran, as well as shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz. Bond and US dollar traders will focus on Friday’s employment report and its implications for Federal Reserve policy.

With equities near record highs, oil prices reacting to geopolitical headlines, and the yen remaining sensitive to official intervention, volatility may remain elevated across several major markets.

Traders should continue following economic data, central bank expectations, and geopolitical developments while applying appropriate risk management measures.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date: 5th August 2026.

Stocks Surge as AI Rebounds and Falling Oil Reshapes the Forex Outlook.

Asian Markets Rally as Three Major Pressures Begin to Ease​

Asian stock markets rallied sharply on Wednesday as investors returned to technology and semiconductor shares following a record-breaking session on Wall Street.

The recovery was supported by three developments that had previously weighed heavily on global risk appetite: oil prices continued to decline, government bond yields moved lower, and strong corporate earnings revived confidence in artificial intelligence-related investment.

Japan and South Korea led the advance, while gains in China, Australia, and other regional markets indicated that the improvement in sentiment was not limited to a single country.

For forex traders, however, the most important question is whether falling energy prices and bond yields can continue to weaken inflation expectations and reduce pressure on central banks to raise interest rates.

Wall Street Records Revive the AI Trade​

The S&P 500 gained approximately 1.8% on Tuesday and closed at a fresh record, while the NASDAQ Composite jumped around 2.6%. NVIDIA, Broadcom, and Micron were among the strongest performers as investors returned to semiconductor shares following the recent technology-sector correction.

NVIDIA gained more than 2% after Elon Musk praised the company’s processors and highlighted their potential role in SpaceX’s artificial intelligence and computing plans.

The comments reinforced expectations that spending on AI infrastructure, advanced processors, and data centres will continue to expand.

Nevertheless, the earnings reaction was far from universally positive.

AMD shares fell approximately 8.8% in after-hours trading even though the company reported record quarterly revenue of $11.5 billion, representing an increase of 50% from the previous year. Data centre revenue more than doubled, while AMD forecast third-quarter revenue of approximately $13 billion, plus or minus $300 million.

The sell-off suggests that strong growth alone may no longer be enough for highly valued AI companies. Investors increasingly expect earnings, guidance, and margins to exceed already elevated forecasts.

SpaceX also dropped around 7.5% following its first quarterly report as a publicly traded company. Concerns that heavy AI and infrastructure investment could consume cash flow overshadowed the company’s operational growth.

The next potential volatility event will arrive on Thursday, when up to 912 million shares held by employees and other pre-IPO investors are expected to become eligible for sale.

Japan and South Korea Lead the Asian Recovery

The positive momentum quickly spread across North Asia.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced approximately 3.5%, while South Korea’s KOSPI rose more than 4%. SK Hynix gained nearly 7%, Samsung Electronics climbed around 4% and several Japanese semiconductor and electronic-component companies recorded strong gains.

MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose approximately 2.3%, while Chinese blue-chip stocks added around 1.5%. The Australian S&P/ASX 200 also reached a new record as financial and mining shares supported the index.

The regional rally represents a strong rebound from the recent AI-sector sell-off, but it does not necessarily mean that all concerns have disappeared. Investors are still evaluating whether the enormous amounts being invested in AI infrastructure will generate sufficient long-term returns.

China also faces an additional source of risk. The Trump administration is reportedly preparing restrictions on imports of new Chinese optical transceivers and other data centre components on national security grounds.

Shares of several Chinese optical-equipment manufacturers came under pressure following the reports, partially offsetting the wider semiconductor rally.

Falling Oil Prices Reduce Inflation Fears​

The most significant macroeconomic support came from oil.

Brent crude declined towards $79 per barrel, substantially below its July peak of approximately $102. West Texas Intermediate fell towards $75 as investors reacted to signs of progress in negotiations involving the United States, Iran, and Oman.

The proposed arrangement could establish a temporary 60-day system for reopening shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Under the reported plan, inbound vessels would travel through a northern lane near Iran, while outbound vessels would use a southern route through Omani waters.

No final agreement had been officially confirmed at the time of writing. Previous negotiations have also collapsed, meaning traders should remain prepared for renewed geopolitical volatility.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy transit routes. Before the conflict, approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passed through the waterway.

A sustained reopening would increase the flow of oil out of the Persian Gulf and reduce the geopolitical risk premium built into crude prices.

For forex traders, lower oil prices can have several important consequences:

• Reduced inflation expectations may decrease pressure on the Federal Reserve and other central banks to tighten monetary policy.
• Oil-importing economies and currencies may benefit from lower energy costs.
• Oil-exporting currencies could lose some support if crude prices extend their decline.
• Improved risk appetite may weaken demand for traditional safe-haven currencies.

Bond Yields Fall as Fed Rate-Hike Expectations Ease​

Lower oil prices have already provided relief to government bond markets.

The US 10-year Treasury yield declined to approximately 4.60%, compared with a recent high of around 4.75%. Markets also reduced the estimated probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September to approximately 57%, down from 67%.

This repricing reflects expectations that lower energy prices could limit the inflationary impact of the Middle East conflict.

However, the Fed outlook remains uncertain. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid recently argued that tighter monetary policy may still be necessary to return inflation to the central bank’s 2% target.

The combination of lower yields and improving equity sentiment placed modest pressure on the US Dollar.

EUR/USD traded close to $1.1540, near its highest level in approximately six weeks. USD/JPY slipped towards 157.60, although intervention risk remains elevated following last week’s rare coordinated Yen-buying operation by Japan and the United States.

Comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent were also interpreted as support for further monetary tightening from the Bank of Japan. Expectations of higher Japanese interest rates could provide additional support for the Yen, particularly if Japanese authorities remain willing to intervene.

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed after unemployment rose to 5.6% in the June quarter, its highest level in approximately a decade. The data may strengthen expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will adopt a more cautious monetary policy stance.

Gold Rises Despite Improving Risk Appetite​

Gold gained approximately 1.6% and traded around $4,140 per ounce.

Ordinarily, a strong equity rally might reduce demand for defensive assets such as gold. However, the decline in Treasury yields supported the precious metal because gold does not offer interest payments and therefore tends to become relatively more attractive when bond yields fall.

A softer US Dollar also made gold less expensive for investors using other currencies.

Gold traders must now balance two competing forces. Further diplomatic progress in the Middle East could reduce safe-haven demand, but declining yields and lower expectations of additional Fed tightening could continue to support prices.

What Forex Traders Should Watch Next​

Attention now turns towards major US economic data that could determine whether the decline in Treasury yields and the US Dollar continues.

The July ADP private-employment report is scheduled for 12:15 GMT on Wednesday, followed by the ISM Services PMI at 14:00 GMT.

Traders should pay particular attention to the employment and prices components of the ISM report, as these may influence expectations for inflation and Federal Reserve monetary policy.

The more influential July nonfarm payrolls report will be released on Friday, 7 August, at 12:30 GMT.

A stronger-than-expected labour report could revive rate-hike expectations, push Treasury yields higher, and support the US Dollar.

A weaker report could reinforce the recent decline in yields, weigh on the Dollar and provide further support to gold and equity markets.

Is the Risk-On Rally Sustainable?​

The Asian stock market rally rests on three improving conditions: continued AI investment, falling oil prices, and lower bond yields.

For the moment, these factors are supporting equities and reducing demand for the US Dollar. However, the outlook remains vulnerable to sudden reversals.

A breakdown in the Hormuz negotiations could send oil prices sharply higher again. Strong US employment or services data could revive expectations of further Fed tightening. Meanwhile, disappointing earnings or rising financing costs could renew concerns about the profitability of AI investment.

Forex traders should therefore monitor oil, Treasury yields, and technology shares together. Their interaction is currently shaping movements across USD/JPY, EUR/USD, commodity currencies, and gold more than any single market in isolation.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 6th August 2026.

Gold Posts Its Biggest Rise in Six Months: Can the Rally Continue?

Gold sees its largest bullish rise in six months as oil prices continue to fall. Crude oil prices have now fallen to $75.00, the lowest in almost four weeks due to a possible Oman-Iran agreement. According to Iran, an agreement has been reached but does not necessarily open the strait fully.

Gold is rising as investors expect lower oil prices to pressure inflation, meaning fewer interest rate hikes. As a result, investors can again invest in non-yielding assets such as Gold. However, this primarily depends on how low oil prices and inflation fall. 38% of analysts continue to expect the Federal Reserve to hike twice this year, while 43% believe it will hike once.

As a result, the price of oil and next week’s inflation rate will primarily determine if Gold’s momentum will continue.

Crude Oil - Iran and Oman Reach a Temporary Agreement on The Strait of Hormuz​

Oman and Iran have come to an agreement to safely open the strait to certain ships. However, Iran has also said the deal will proceed if ‘certain parties do not obstruct the process’. Here, Iran is referring to the US, which is holding separate talks with Iran.

Oil prices are falling based on the news of the agreement. However, investors should note that the agreement is relatively weak. The agreement only covers a limited number of ships through a small route. In addition to this, the US continues to block the strait to Iran. For this reason, market analysts remain cautious about any positive news while the US does not have an agreement in place with Iran.

In the past two weeks the price has fallen by 21% but based on historic correlations between oil prices and inflation, this is not enough to pressure inflation. The Federal Reserve is looking to push inflation to 2%, with inflation currently at 3.5%.

As a general rule, most economists believe that if oil prices remain 10% lower than their previous price, inflation falls by a maximum of 0.40%. So far, inflation has fallen by 20% meaning a further 10% is needed to bring inflation down to its target. Therefore, oil would need to fall to $66 per barrel and remain there for some time in order for inflation to fall to 2%. Otherwise, the Federal Reserve is likely to continue considering interest rate adjustments.

Currently, the price of Crude Oil is struggling to cross below the support level of $74.40. Over the past 24 hours three attempts have been seen. However, the price action will largely depend on the US and Iranian negotiations. If the price breaks below the support level, technical analysts will maintain a bearish bias, targeting the psychological $70.00 level next, followed by support at $68.00.

HFM - Crude Oil 30-Minute Chart

Gold - Importance of Inflation​

Gold prices saw a significant surge on Wednesday in response to lower oil prices, a weaker Dollar and hopes that this could lower inflation. However, this cannot yet be known, as demand and the employment sector remains resilient.

On Wednesday, three members of the Federal Reserve spoke to journalists about monetary policy. All three generally sounded hawkish and willing to hike interest rates.

Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed President - ‘Now is the time to start slowly moving up as we get more data in.’

Lisa Cook, Fed Governor - ‘If I do not see signs of disinflation soon, I am willing to act.’

Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed President - ‘The answer there is be vigilant, to watch the inflation as it comes in, but be very prepared to take action.’

Tomorrow’s NFP data will trigger volatility for Gold and the US Dollar, however, the inflation rate next week will be more influential. Stronger NFP data and higher inflation are likely to weaken Gold, while weaker data could fuel a medium-term rise.

Gold’s technical outlook remains cautiously bullish in the short term. The price is trading above its 50-day moving average, and momentum indicators continue to strengthen. Immediate resistance is located around $4,300, and a break above this price could indicate a further rise. On the downside, traders may first target the $4,220–$4,200 support zone, followed by the more significant $4,157 level.

As long as gold remains above $4,160, bearish signals are avoided; however, a rejection from $4,300 and a break below this support would weaken the bullish structure.

HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart

Key Takeaway Points:​

• Gold posted its strongest six-month rally as oil prices and the US Dollar declined.
• The temporary Oman-Iran agreement pushed crude oil towards $75, but the deal remains limited and uncertain.
• Oil may need to fall towards $66 and stay there to significantly reduce inflation pressure to the Fed’s target.
• Gold’s next major catalysts are the US jobs report and next week’s inflation data.
• Gold remains cautiously bullish above $4,160, with resistance near $4,300.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date: 7th August 2026.

Oil and Gold Rise as Traders Await the US Jobs Report.

Key Takeaways

• Brent crude rose 1.4% to around $83.65 as uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz kept supply risks elevated.
• Gold advanced to approximately $4,264, supported by geopolitical uncertainty ahead of the US jobs report.
• The US 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.68% as higher oil prices revived inflation concerns.
• Economists expect the US economy to have added 80,000 jobs in July, following 57,000 additions in June.
• The US Dollar strengthened, while the Japanese Yen surrendered almost half of its recent intervention-driven gains.
• Asian stocks were mixed as Chinese equities rose, but AI-linked semiconductor shares remained under pressure.

Oil prices Rise as Uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz Continues​

Global markets entered Friday focused on two major risks: developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the release of the July US nonfarm payrolls report.

Brent crude gained approximately 1.4% to $83.65 per barrel after hopes for a lasting agreement to reopen the strategic waterway weakened. Iranian reports suggested that Tehran may seek to restrict US and Israeli vessels, despite signs that an Iran-Oman arrangement could be approaching its final stages.


Oil remained around 5% lower for the week after previously falling on optimism that the US and Iran would reach an agreement. This leaves prices highly sensitive to headlines. A credible deal could reduce the geopolitical premium, while further restrictions or attacks could quickly push supply concerns back into focus.

The move matters beyond the energy market. Persistently high oil prices can raise transport and production costs, reinforce inflation, and make it harder for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. That prospect contributed to weakness in government bonds, with the US 10-year Treasury yield holding near 4.68%.

Copper Rises on Supply Concerns and Strong Chinese Trade​

Copper prices moved higher after the Democratic Republic of Congo introduced an immediate ban on copper and cobalt concentrate exports. The decision raised concerns about global supply, briefly pushing London copper prices approximately 1.8% higher.

Sentiment was also supported by strong Chinese trade data. China’s exports increased 23.9% year-on-year in July, while imports rose 27.5%, signalling resilient activity in the world’s largest copper-consuming economy. Traders should monitor whether supply restrictions and Chinese demand can keep copper near its recent record level.

Gold Advances, but Higher Yields May Limit Gains​

Gold extended its recovery, with spot XAU/USD rising to around $4,264 an ounce. Silver also moved higher to approximately $62.26, while platinum reached around $1,740.

Geopolitical uncertainty supported demand for precious metals, while Chinese gold-backed exchange-traded funds recorded a fourteenth consecutive session of inflows.

However, gold faces competing forces. Middle East tensions can increase safe-haven demand, but higher oil prices may also lift inflation expectations, Treasury yields, and the US Dollar. Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and could restrict its upside.

The late-June low near $3,942 remains an important technical reference. On the upside, the 200-day moving average near $4,489 represents a major test. A sustained break above it could strengthen the recovery, while a rejection from that area may signal that momentum is fading.

US Nonfarm Payrolls could Reshape Fed Expectations​

The July US employment report is the day’s main scheduled event. Economists expect employers to have added 80,000 jobs, compared with a weaker-than-expected increase of 57,000 in June.

Recent data have shown continued resilience. Initial jobless claims remained below 200,000 for a third consecutive week, while second-quarter productivity exceeded expectations. At the same time, higher energy prices have kept inflation, and the possibility of tighter Federal Reserve policy, at the centre of the market outlook.

Traders should assess more than the headline payroll figure. Wage growth, unemployment, labour force participation, and revisions to previous months may determine whether the initial market reaction lasts.

Three NFP Scenarios for Traders​

Stronger than expected: A result clearly above 80,000, particularly alongside firm wage growth or lower unemployment, could lift Treasury yields and the US Dollar. Gold, bonds, and rate-sensitive technology shares may face pressure.

Weaker than expected: A soft figure could revive concerns about an economic slowdown and support Treasuries. Lower yields may weaken the Dollar and help gold, although equities could react negatively if the data point to a sharper deterioration in employment.

Mixed report: A weak headline combined with strong wages, or a strong headline alongside higher unemployment, could produce volatile, short-lived moves. In this case, revisions and wage data may matter more than the initial number.

US Dollar Strengthens as the Yen Loses Momentum​

The US Dollar strengthened against most major currencies as Treasury yields rose and geopolitical uncertainty supported defensive demand. The US Dollar Index traded close to 100 after recovering from seven-month lows.

USD/JPY traded near 158.35 after falling as low as 155.23 earlier in the week. The Yen has now surrendered almost half of the gains generated by the first coordinated US-Japan intervention since 1998.

The reversal shows that intervention can disrupt a currency trend without necessarily changing the interest rate forces behind it. The 155 area remains a key reference from the intervention move, while the late-July region near 164 may attract renewed attention to the risk of further official action.

Asian Markets Remain Divided over the AI Trade​

Asian equities were mixed. China’s CSI 300 rose approximately 1% and the Shanghai Composite gained around 0.8% after the country reported a larger-than-expected July trade surplus. Exports increased 24% year over year, while imports rose 28%.

Technology shares in South Korea and Japan remained under pressure as investors questioned whether elevated AI valuations could be justified by near-term earnings. South Korea’s KOSPI fell around 0.8%, with SK Hynix losing more than 4%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined approximately 0.3%, while Fujifilm plunged after announcing that it was considering a partial spin-off of its imaging business.

Despite the recent AI-related sell-off, capital-raising activity remains strong. Asia-Pacific companies raised more than $83 billion through initial public offerings, placements, and block trades in July, indicating that corporate confidence remains high even as investors become more selective.

What Traders Should Watch Today​

The US jobs report may generate the day’s largest scheduled move, but its effect will depend on oil prices and inflation expectations. The most important cross-market relationships are:

• Rising oil may lift inflation expectations, bond yields, and the US Dollar.
• Higher yields could limit gold’s safe-haven gains.
• A strong jobs report may pressure highly valued technology and AI shares.
• Renewed Yen weakness may increase the risk of further currency intervention.
• A credible Hormuz agreement could reverse part of oil’s geopolitical premium.

With major economic data and geopolitical headlines arriving together, volatility may remain elevated across commodities, currencies, bonds, and stock indices. Traders should review the full employment report, prepare for wider spreads, and apply disciplined risk management around the release.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 10th August 2026.

Weak NFP Hits the Dollar and Supports Gold as Markets Turn to US Inflation.

The US NFP release comes in as a surprise, pushing the US Dollar significantly lower. Due to the end of the World Cup, economists were expecting the employment data to come in weaker than expected. However, the US NFP change fell by 80,000, significantly lower than predictions. For this reason, expectations of interest rate hikes in September fell.

In response to the NFP release, the stock market found further support, as did Gold. However, the US Dollar Index fell close to a two-month low. According to the Bank of America, NFP is triggering volatility, but the upcoming inflation release will be more significant and could trigger longer-lasting trends.

Non-Farm Payrolls - Weak NFP Shocks Markets​

The average NFP change over the past six months is 86,000, and most economists were expecting the latest release to be 75,000. However, many institutions and fund managers were expecting a figure as low as 50,000 due to the end of the World Cup. The official NFP figures fell by 23,000, marking the first time in five months that the US employment change has fallen.

Average hourly earnings increased by only $0.02 to $37.62, equivalent to roughly 0.1% month-on-month, while annual wage growth slowed to 3.2%. This is important for the Fed because weaker wage growth reduces one source of inflationary pressure.

The fall in unemployment from 4.2% to 4.1% looks positive at first. However, the overall figure confirms this does not necessarily confirm a strengthening labour market. This is because of the weak NFP figure and the decline in the labour force participation rate.

For this reason, the employment data does not support an interest rate hike despite the Federal Reserve chairman’s wish to hike. Consequently, the Consumer Price Index (inflation rate) on Wednesday will be vital for market pricing.

Consumer Price Index - Inflation to Determine the Next Trend?​

The July US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released on Wednesday, 12 August at 8:30 a.m. ET. The release will be the most important announcement for the Federal Reserve after Friday’s unexpectedly weak employment report.

Investors and economists are expecting the inflation rate to fall from 3.5% to 3.4% and core inflation to fall to 2.5%. If inflation falls below 3.4%, expectations for a September rate hike would likely decline sharply. Such an outcome could trigger significant market volatility as traders rapidly reprice interest rate expectations across currencies, equities, bonds, and Gold.

Over the past week, the possibility of a rate adjustment in September fell from 67% to 44%. If the inflation rate falls, the chances of a rate hike will likely fall below 30%. As a result, the US Dollar is likely to fall, while Gold and stocks find support. Bank of America has also advised that it is increasing its target for the S&P 500 to 8,000 due to higher earnings and AI.

Gold - Finds Support from a Potential Pause and a Weaker Dollar​

Gold is showing strong bullish momentum, outperforming the US Dollar and experiencing higher volatility in line with its inverse correlation. Trend-based indications are also supporting a bullish bias, with the price trading above the VWAP, above its previous highs, and with clear bullish crossovers.

HFM - Gold 2-Hour Chart


In terms of technical analysis, the price is only witnessing a bearish indication from divergence on oscillators. Divergence can be seen mainly on the RSI on multiple timeframes. The divergence signal may indicate a retracement or change in the trend. However, this will need to have a clear price driver. For example, if inflation remains at 3.5%, Gold again may come under pressure in the short term.

If the price declines and comes under pressure from CPI, a possible target remains the $4,222.00 level. This level is a support area based on price action and in line with the 75-bar exponential moving average. This would also be a similar price movement to previous impulse waves. Upward price movement, on the other hand, sees a clear resistance level at $4,382.00. If the bullish price movement experiences stronger momentum, a potential target may be $4,570.00, which is the average price of 2026 so far.

Key Takeaways:​

• US NFP surprised sharply to the downside, with payrolls falling by 23,000 and wage growth slowing. The unemployment rate improved slightly falling from 4.2% to 4.1%.
• Rate-hike expectations dropped significantly, helping support Gold and equities while pushing the US Dollar Index towards a two-month low.
• Wednesday’s CPI release is now the key market catalyst, with inflation expected to ease from 3.5% to 3.4% and core inflation to 2.5%.
• A softer CPI reading could push September hike expectations even lower. A lower inflation rate will likely pressure the US Dollar while supporting Gold and stock markets.
• Gold remains technically bullish, with resistance around $4,382 and $4,570, while $4,222 stands out as an important downside support level.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 11th August 2026.

Gold Loses Momentum Ahead of US CPI Release!

Gold rises to its highest price since 5 June as higher oil prices reduce demand for non-yielding assets. Investors continue attempting to determine if the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in September. Market pricing is now focused on the Consumer Price Index tomorrow afternoon and the US bond sale later in the year.

Bond yields can apply excessive pressure on Gold due to the metal being a non-yielding asset. The 10-year Treasury yield is trading 17 basis points higher on Tuesday and are close to breaking 2026 highs. The higher yields rise, the more likely demand for Gold is to fall from investors.

President Trump and Higher Oil Prices​

Oil prices have now risen for two consecutive days and continue to rise during this morning’s Asian session. Crude oil prices are now trading at their August high and are applying pressure on investor sentiment ahead of the upcoming inflation release (CPI).

Iran is demanding major US concessions before fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz, including an end to sanctions and the blockade of Iranian ports, the release of frozen assets, and compensation for war damage. This is something the US will, without a doubt, refuse. In response, the US president also added similar requests, which were not previously made.

Donald Trump told journalists that he requires Iran to pay compensation for people killed and wounded by Iranian actions, and for damages and deaths in Lebanon and Gaza. Due to this, the possibility of a deal and the reopening of the strait remains dim. This is the key reason for oil prices rising and almost forming a full bullish correction.

Higher oil prices are a particular issue due to the timing. The market had been pricing in a prolonged pause due to weak employment data and expectations that inflation will fall. However, if oil continues to increase over the next 24 hours, even if inflation does fall, the effect will not be the same.

Crude Oil - Technical Analysis​

From a technical perspective, Crude Oil remains bullish in the short term following the strong rebound above the $80.00 level. Holding above $80 would keep buyers in control, according to indicators, with $84.00 and $85.00 acting as the next potential targets. A break back below $80.00 could bring bearish signals back into focus. However, overall, momentum remains positive, but volatility is likely to depend on geopolitical developments that continue to drive the price.

HFM - Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart

Gold - Oil Prices Dim Hopes of Fed Cut Ahead of Key Inflation Report​

Gold is actively declining for three reasons. The first is that the price is trading relatively high in comparison to recent price ranges. Due to this, investors are opting to cash in profits ahead of the CPI announcement. Investors also note that the market is experiencing a slightly risk-off appetite, also meaning investors are not looking to risk trading in the wrong direction. In addition to this, higher bond yields and a US Dollar recovery are pressuring Gold. The US Dollar has now almost fully recovered after Friday’s sharp decline.

However, the key drivers are higher oil prices and tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). The main consensus is that inflation will slightly fall from 3.5% to 3.4%. The decline is a positive for Gold, but investors continue to note that the rate of inflation remains considerably elevated. The inflation rate falling to 3.4% would be a positive sign if oil prices were also decreasing. However, due to oil prices rising again, investors would be looking for a stronger decline in order to support Gold prices.

If inflation declines to 3.2-3.3%, Gold may remain in bullish momentum and aim for the next key psychological price at $4,500. However, if oil keeps rising and inflation stays high, Gold could come under pressure again, as seen throughout 2026.

HFM - Gold 15-Minute Chart

Key Takeaway Points:​

• Gold is under pressure from higher bond yields, a stronger US Dollar, and profit-taking ahead of CPI.
• Oil prices remain bullish as US-Iran tensions reduce hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• Tomorrow’s CPI is crucial for expectations around a potential September Fed rate move.
• A softer CPI near 3.2-3.3% could support Gold, while sticky inflation and rising oil could trigger further downside.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 12th August 2026.

CPI in Focus: What Investors Need to Know Ahead of the Inflation Release.

Gold, oil, and the stock market are experiencing up-and-down swings, but the US Dollar remains in a steady correction. The price of the US Dollar Index has now fully corrected back to its pre-NFP price. Is this an indication as to what investors are expecting from the upcoming inflation release?

Oil Prices Remain Stubbornly High​

Investors are evaluating new information regarding discussions between Iran and Oman. Oman is acting as a mediator in talks with the US over control of the Strait of Hormuz. The aim is to open the waterway for shipping, particularly oil exports. Kuwait, Oman, and Pakistan are advising that a deal is close. However, this cannot be seen in the price movement.

This is due to reports that both sides are hardening their stance. Both sides are now advising that they are looking for compensation and the removal of sanctions. This is almost certainly not something the parties will agree to. In addition, the White House advised that the president did not travel on Air Force One during his visit to Turkey because of concerns about a possible assassination attempt by Iran. For this reason, investors do not expect shipping to return to normal any time soon.

HFM - Crude Oil 30-Minute Chart

Consumer Price Index - All Eyes on Inflation​

Markets are expecting the Consumer Price Index to rise by 0.1% meaning that the US inflation rate will fall from 3.5% to 3.4%. Investors are hoping that inflation falls more than expected, due to the hawkish nature of the Federal Reserve chairman. Inflation in the US has now been above its target for five consecutive years. This can risk normalising higher inflation, which can significantly damage economic stability.

For this reason, if inflation does not decline the price of Gold and the stock market could come under pressure. At the same time, this could prompt the US Dollar Index to rise above 100.00 again. However, if the inflation rate falls by more than 0.1%, investors may price in a pause for September due to July’s weak NFP data. Certainly, the upcoming CPI release could play a significant role in determining the market’s near-term direction.

Gold Trades Sideways But A Strong Dollar Worries Investors​

Gold is witnessing range-bound trading conditions, meaning no major trend. This reason for this is that investors are waiting for the CPI release before making any major amendments to portfolios. However, in the ultra-short-term the price of the metal is trading higher but not above yesterday’s high. At the same time, the US Dollar is also trading higher meaning investors should be cautious of bullish impulse waves unless the Dollar retraces.

Currently, the resistance level for Gold can be seen at $4,436, which would be a possible first target for Gold if CPI reads weak. A medium-term target would be the $4,500 psychological level. However, in order for Gold to rise to this level, inflation must convince traders that there will be no interest rate adjustments any time soon. In contrast, the key support level can be seen at $4,097-$4,100.

HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart

USD/JPY - Only Two Rate Hikes Can Save the Yen?​

In the short term, USD/JPY retains a cautiously bullish bias, with recent price action showing attempts to recover after the sharp intervention-driven decline. However, upside momentum appears constrained near the 160.60-160.65 area. Whether this price will be broken will depend on today’s inflation rate. Currently, the best-performing currencies of the day are the US Dollar and the Pound. The worst-performing are the Japanese Yen, and New Zealand Dollar.

According to analysts, the Japanese Yen is unlikely to see any significant improvement unless the Bank of Japan hikes interest rates twice in 2026. A single rate hike is unlikely to provide sufficient support for a sustained recovery. The current consensus is that the Bank will hike on one occasion, but this would not be enough to support a stronger rebound.

NASDAQ - CPI and Earnings Key for the NASDAQ​

The tech-story is improving and the NASDAQ is trading close to its monthly highs. However, interest rates and inflation can derail the trend or boost it further. The performance of the NASDAQ over the next 24-hours will depend on the CPI release, Cisco earnings and tomorrow’s producer inflation. In the longer term, NVIDIA’s earnings on 26 August will also play a key role.

Key Takeaways:​

• CPI could set the tone for markets, influencing rate expectations and the US Dollar.
• Oil prices remain elevated as uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz continues.
• Gold is trading sideways, with the CPI release likely to determine its next major move.
• USD/JPY and the NASDAQ remain in focus, with inflation and interest rate expectations driving near-term direction.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 13th August 2026.

CPI in Focus: What Investors Need to Know Ahead of the Inflation Release.

Gold, oil, and the stock market are experiencing up-and-down swings, but the US Dollar remains in a steady correction. The price of the US Dollar Index has now fully corrected back to its pre-NFP price. Is this an indication as to what investors are expecting from the upcoming inflation release?

Oil Prices Remain Stubbornly High​

Investors are evaluating new information regarding discussions between Iran and Oman. Oman is acting as a mediator in talks with the US over control of the Strait of Hormuz. The aim is to open the waterway for shipping, particularly oil exports. Kuwait, Oman, and Pakistan are advising that a deal is close. However, this cannot be seen in the price movement.

This is due to reports that both sides are hardening their stance. Both sides are now advising that they are looking for compensation and the removal of sanctions. This is almost certainly not something the parties will agree to. In addition, the White House advised that the president did not travel on Air Force One during his visit to Turkey because of concerns about a possible assassination attempt by Iran. For this reason, investors do not expect shipping to return to normal any time soon.

HFM - Crude Oil 30-Minute Chart

Consumer Price Index - All Eyes on Inflation​

Markets are expecting the Consumer Price Index to rise by 0.1% meaning that the US inflation rate will fall from 3.5% to 3.4%. Investors are hoping that inflation falls more than expected, due to the hawkish nature of the Federal Reserve chairman. Inflation in the US has now been above its target for five consecutive years. This can risk normalising higher inflation, which can significantly damage economic stability.

For this reason, if inflation does not decline the price of Gold and the stock market could come under pressure. At the same time, this could prompt the US Dollar Index to rise above 100.00 again. However, if the inflation rate falls by more than 0.1%, investors may price in a pause for September due to July’s weak NFP data. Certainly, the upcoming CPI release could play a significant role in determining the market’s near-term direction.

Gold Trades Sideways But A Strong Dollar Worries Investors​

Gold is witnessing range-bound trading conditions, meaning no major trend. This reason for this is that investors are waiting for the CPI release before making any major amendments to portfolios. However, in the ultra-short-term the price of the metal is trading higher but not above yesterday’s high. At the same time, the US Dollar is also trading higher meaning investors should be cautious of bullish impulse waves unless the Dollar retraces.

Currently, the resistance level for Gold can be seen at $4,436, which would be a possible first target for Gold if CPI reads weak. A medium-term target would be the $4,500 psychological level. However, in order for Gold to rise to this level, inflation must convince traders that there will be no interest rate adjustments any time soon. In contrast, the key support level can be seen at $4,097-$4,100.

HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart

USD/JPY - Only Two Rate Hikes Can Save the Yen?​

In the short term, USD/JPY retains a cautiously bullish bias, with recent price action showing attempts to recover after the sharp intervention-driven decline. However, upside momentum appears constrained near the 160.60-160.65 area. Whether this price will be broken will depend on today’s inflation rate. Currently, the best-performing currencies of the day are the US Dollar and the Pound. The worst-performing are the Japanese Yen, and New Zealand Dollar.

According to analysts, the Japanese Yen is unlikely to see any significant improvement unless the Bank of Japan hikes interest rates twice in 2026. A single rate hike is unlikely to provide sufficient support for a sustained recovery. The current consensus is that the Bank will hike on one occasion, but this would not be enough to support a stronger rebound.

NASDAQ - CPI and Earnings Key for the NASDAQ​

The tech-story is improving and the NASDAQ is trading close to its monthly highs. However, interest rates and inflation can derail the trend or boost it further. The performance of the NASDAQ over the next 24-hours will depend on the CPI release, Cisco earnings and tomorrow’s producer inflation. In the longer term, NVIDIA’s earnings on 26 August will also play a key role.

Key Takeaways:​

• CPI could set the tone for markets, influencing rate expectations and the US Dollar.
• Oil prices remain elevated as uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz continues.
• Gold is trading sideways, with the CPI release likely to determine its next major move.
• USD/JPY and the NASDAQ remain in focus, with inflation and interest rate expectations driving near-term direction.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 14th August 2026.

PPI Boosts Market Sentiment, Pushing Stocks Higher.

The latest inflation data from Wednesday saw the possibility of an interest rate hike fall slightly. However, an even more positive development for the stock market is the latest producer price index. The first reaction to the release of the Producer Price Index was minimal, but volatility soon kicked in as the US session opened.

The Producer Price Index did not rise at all in July, whereas analysts were expecting a moderate rise of 0.2%. As a result, producer inflation fell from 5.5% to 4.7%, significantly lower than market expectations. The PPI YoY continues to read higher than the Federal Reserve’s target but has now seen three consecutive months of declines. In addition to this, the Core Producer Price Index rose 0.2%, lower than the 0.3% consensus.

The lower producer inflation, along with the decline in oil prices is supportive of the global stock market. Crude oil prices have fallen more than 2% over the past 24 hours and any further decline could indicate a prolonged pause by the Federal Reserve. The possibility of an interest rate hike in September continues to fall, from 40% on Wednesday to 32% this morning.

As a result, sentiment towards the stock market could rise further. However, analysts continue to advise that up-and-down volatility in the medium to longer term is likely to continue due to the AI trend, high earnings, and fear over AI-spending.

Cisco and Applied Materials Earnings Report​

Cisco, which made its quarterly earnings report public on Wednesday, is the 15th most influential stock in the NASDAQ. Applied Materials Inc. is the 16th most influential and together they make up 2.10% of the NASDAQ.

Cisco’s latest earnings report was strong, with fourth-quarter revenue rising 18% year-on- year to $17.3 billion, beating the high end of its guidance, while non-GAAP EPS increased 23% to $1.22. Cisco also reported a 35% increase in total product orders, with networking orders up 40%. Looking ahead, the company expects $72.2–$73.4 billion in revenue, suggesting continued growth. However, due to AI spending and the slightly lower gross margin are triggering a sell-off for the time being.

Applied Material stock has fallen 5% after the company announced its quarterly report, weakening the bullish momentum of the NASDAQ. Applied Material Inc. is experiencing a similar reaction to most stocks within this earnings season. The company saw both earnings and revenue beat expectations, but the stock declines suggest that the results were simply not high enough.

PPI Report Boost The NASDAQ​

The NASDAQ rose more than 1.30% in response to the Producer Price Index reading considerably lower than expectations. The inflation rate decline did little to change analysts’ views on upcoming interest rate decisions. However, Thursday’s PPI report was seen as particularly positive for the stock market.

The price of the NASDAQ is now trading above key moving averages on most timeframes and is yet to become overbought. In addition to this, the VIX continues to trade lower, indicating strong investor sentiment for now. However, the price this morning is trading slightly below the VWAP. Therefore, buy signals will strengthen once bullish momentum is regained.

Lastly, 76% of the NASDAQ’s most influential companies rose on Thursday, providing a further bullish indication from component analysis.

HFM - NASDAQ 30-Minute Chart

Key Takeaway Points:​

1. Inflation is cooling: July PPI was flat, lowering September Fed hike odds from 40% to 32%, which is bullish for stocks.
2. Earnings are strong, but expectations are higher: Cisco and Applied Materials beat estimates, yet both sold off as investors demanded more.
3. NASDAQ remains bullish: It jumped 1.3%+, trades above key moving averages, and remains below overbought levels.
4. Momentum needs confirmation: The VIX is falling, but NASDAQ is slightly below VWAP, so short-term volatility remains likely.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.