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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for April 9, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: BUY 4711.45-4788.05, TP1-4864.55, TP2-5122.45.​

• Long-term trend: short. The maximum volume accumulation of the current contract is located in the range of 4800.00–4850.00. Currently, investment transactions on XAUUSD are taking place below this range, indicating sellers' strength.



• Medium-term trend: long. The maximum volume accumulation of the medium-term trend is located in the range of 4580.00–4615.00 and 4640.00–4675.00. Currently, investment transactions on XAUUSD are taking place above this range, indicating buyers' strength.

• The area of favorable buying prices in terms of margin is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones, built from the high of 08.04.2026.

• The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4788.05.

• Upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is quoted at 4711.45.

• Intraday targets: Renewing the highs from 04/08/2026 at 4864.55.

• Medium-term targets: Testing the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 5122.45.



• Trading recommendations: Buy from within the favorable price range when a reversal pattern forms.

• Buy: 4711.45–4788.05, Take Profit 1–4864.55, Take Profit 2–5122.45.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 10, 2026 EURUSD​

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

EURUSD:
​

EUR/USD is holding near 1.1690 on Friday after a notable weakening of the US dollar over the week. The US currency is losing part of its safe-haven demand as the market reduces positions opened during the peak of the Middle East conflict and assesses the prospects for negotiations between the United States and Iran. This allows the euro to maintain an advantage.

The single currency is also supported by the European backdrop. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.5% in March from 1.9% a month earlier, mainly due to energy prices. In March, the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged but pointed to risks for prices and growth, while officials indicated that a firmer response remains possible if the energy shock proves persistent.

On the US side, inflation remains a key uncertainty. The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate in the 3.50%–3.75% range in March, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year. Today, the market is awaiting the March US Consumer Price Index report, and if there is no fresh reason for the dollar to strengthen, demand for the euro may remain in place.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1690, SL 1.1660, TP 1.1780

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[Fresh Forex]

Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 17 April 2026​

XAUUSD: SELL 4716.70, SL 4748.00, TP 4621.00​

​

Gold starts the week near $4,716 per ounce after declining amid a stronger US dollar and worsening expectations for a Fed rate cut. The sharp rise in oil above $100 has intensified concerns about a new wave of inflation, which reduces the chances of rapid monetary easing in the US and increases pressure on XAUUSD.

The metal is still supported by tensions in the Middle East and steady demand from central banks, including China. However, the key drivers for the coming days remain the dollar, inflation signals, and comments from Fed officials, so for this week a scenario of moderate downside with elevated volatility appears more likely for gold.

Trading recommendation: SELL 4716.70, SL 4748.00, TP 4621.00

#SP500: SELL 6805, SL 6870, TP 6610​

​

The S&P 500 index finished Friday at 6,816.89 points, but futures slipped to 6,805 at the start of the new week. The main reason is another jump in oil prices and rising tensions around Iran. Higher energy prices are once again increasing inflation risks and making the market more cautious about the prospects for US rate cuts.

This week, the focus shifts to earnings reports from major banks and technology companies. Profit expectations remain generally strong, but any deterioration in guidance on demand, costs, and margins could quickly bring sellers back into the market. For now, the external backdrop remains restrictive, which means short-term pressure on #SP500 looks more likely.

Trading recommendation: SELL 6805, SL 6870, TP 6610

#BRENT: BUY 102.23, SL 99.00, TP 111.92​

​

Brent crude starts the week near $102.23 per barrel after a sharp rally caused by the collapse of US-Iran talks and the announcement of a blockade on Iranian ports. The market is once again pricing in the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a significant share of global oil trade, so buying interest remains strong at the start of the week.

Additional support comes from expectations of tighter supply and a possible shift in the market balance toward deficit. OPEC’s monthly report is due today, while the IEA will publish its oil market report on Tuesday, so supply expectations will remain the central theme for the market. For the current week, the fundamental backdrop for Brent remains supportive of further gains.

Trading recommendation: BUY 102.23, SL 99.00, TP 111.92

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for April 14, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: BUY 4698.38-4781.28, TP1-4864.28, TP2-5186.48.​

Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range of quotations 4685.00–4735.00. At the moment, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out above the specified range, which indicates the strength of buyers.

​

Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the medium-term trend is located in the range of quotations 4580.00-4615.00 and 4640.00-4675.00. At the moment, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out above the specified range, which indicates the strength of buyers.

The area of favorable prices for buying from the point of view of margin support is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones built from the maximum of 08.04.2026.

The quotation of the upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4781.28.

The quotation of the upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 4698.38.

Intraday targets: renewal of the highs of 08.04.2026–4864.28.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of GWCZ - 5186.48.

​

Trading recommendations: purchases from the range of favorable prices upon the formation of a reversal pattern.

Buy: 4698.38–4781.28, Take Profit 1–4864.28, Take Profit 2–5186.48.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 15, 2026 GBPUSD​

Event to pay attention to today:

21:00 EET. GBP - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech

GBPUSD:

​

The pound is holding near 1.3570, reacting to swings in the US dollar and news from the Middle East: expectations of talks and possible de-escalation reduce demand for safe-haven assets, but any deterioration quickly brings nervousness back to the market. Another transmission channel remains oil and gas prices, which are important for the UK economy.

Domestically, attention is shifting to the Bank of England’s messaging and decisions. The market is increasingly discussing that higher energy costs could keep inflation above target longer than expected, but the regulator also has to take into account cooling business activity. Against this backdrop, any mismatch between market expectations and signals from the Bank of England increases volatility in the pair.

From the external side, pressure on the pound comes from worsening global forecasts and the risk of weaker growth in Europe. The IMF is already revising its estimates, pointing to the consequences of the energy shock, which makes GBP/USD dynamics dependent on a combination of “energy” news and US price data. If the Fed continues to maintain a high-rate stance, the dollar’s strengthening potential could push the pair back toward lower levels. The risk is a sharp drop in oil and an improvement in risk appetite.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.3575, SL 1.3595, TP 1.3475

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for April 16, 2026 #NQ100​

#NQ100: SELL 26200, SL 26400, TP 24800.​

​

The index continued to move upward quite confidently, approaching its all-time high. As previously noted, an upward impulse is likely forming at the moment, which is part of wave (v) on a higher timeframe.

At this point, the impulse on the current timeframe appears complete, meaning a corrective decline may begin at any moment. An additional factor supporting the bearish scenario is the previously marked high acting as a resistance level. The price has already reacted to this level twice; on the third attempt, we will likely see another notable reaction.

Given this, it may be worth cautiously opening short positions at current market levels.

Investment idea: SELL 26200, SL 26400, TP 24800.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 17, 2026 USDJPY​

USDJPY:

​

USD/JPY is holding near 159.40 and remains sensitive to the divergence in the policy approaches of the United States and Japan. The Japanese currency is weakening because the market is becoming less confident in a near-term tightening step from the Bank of Japan amid external uncertainty and expensive energy. For Japan, higher oil prices are especially painful because they worsen the trade balance and put pressure on the yen.

An additional factor was the statement from Japanese officials that an agreement had been reached with the United States to strengthen cooperation on the foreign exchange market. This signal is a reminder that the area around 160 remains sensitive. As long as the Bank of Japan stays cautious and the probability of an immediate rate increase declines, the yield gap between the US and Japan continues to work against the yen.

On the dollar side, support comes from the resilience of the US economy. The US labor market remains strong, and investors expect the Federal Reserve not to rush any rate changes. Even despite the dollar’s overall weakness in recent days, the pair still has room for a fresh rise if tensions in commodity markets do not ease completely. Under these conditions, the base-case scenario for today points to continued growth in USD/JPY.

Trading recommendation: BUY 159.40, SL 158.90, TP 160.90

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[Fresh Forex]

Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 24 April 2026​

XAUUSD: SELL 4790.00, SL 4820.00, TP 4700.00​

​

Gold enters the week under pressure after pulling back to the 4790–4800 dollars per ounce area. The trigger was a new wave of tension around Iran: oil prices moved higher, US Treasury yields rose, and the dollar strengthened. This is unfavorable for gold because the market is once again concerned about prolonged inflation and a longer period of high interest rates in the United States.

This week, the key factor for XAUUSD will be not only demand for safe-haven assets, but also the market’s reaction to rising energy prices. As long as the dollar keeps its advantage and yields continue to rise, gold will find it harder to return quickly to its highs. The base-case scenario for the week is a moderate decline, with a risk of sharp swings driven by Middle East headlines.

Trading recommendation: SELL 4790.00, SL 4820.00, TP 4700.00

#SP500: BUY 7125, SL 7075, TP 7275​

​

The S&P 500 index ended last week at a new record high near 7126 points. The market is being supported by expectations of strong corporate earnings: nearly one fifth of the companies in the index are due to report this week, while total first-quarter earnings growth is estimated at around 14% year-on-year. This is keeping interest in US equities firm despite external uncertainty.

Additional support is coming from broad inflows into US stocks and historical market behavior: after reaching new highs, the market often continues rising for several more weeks. A limiting factor is expensive oil, which may increase inflation risks and put pressure on corporate costs. Still, for now the fundamental balance for the week remains in favor of further gains.

Trading recommendation: BUY 7125, SL 7075, TP 7275

#BRENT: BUY 95.25, SL 93.75, TP 99.75​

​

Brent starts the week near 95.25 dollars per barrel after a fresh rise in tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. The market is once again pricing in the risk of supply disruptions, especially since about one fifth of global oil and liquefied gas supplies pass through this route. Against this backdrop, oil prices remain highly sensitive to any news related to negotiations and military developments.

Throughout the week, Brent may continue to rise as long as the threat of supply disruptions remains reflected in prices. At the same time, the upside potential is limited by expectations of weaker demand and by major banks’ assumptions that supply flows may gradually normalize by mid-May. Therefore, the base-case scenario remains moderately upward, but with very high volatility.

Trading recommendation: BUY 95.25, SL 93.75, TP 99.75

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[Fresh Forex]

#SP500, #NQ100, #DJI30: Why aren’t they falling?​

U.S. stock indices remain near record highs: #SP500, #NQ100, and #DJI30 are all holding close to their peaks. The rally is supported by several factors at once: strong corporate earnings, stable profit expectations, and strong demand for major companies, as well as the belief that geopolitical tensions will not quickly worsen the U.S. economic outlook. At the same time, each index has its own driver: #SP500 is supported by broad-based earnings growth across sectors, #NQ100 by sustained interest in tech companies and the artificial intelligence theme, and #DJI30 by strength in banking, industrials, and energy.

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​

Key factors supporting the market:

• Strong corporate earnings support the market and reduce fears of external risks.
• Profit expectations for 2026 remain positive, sustaining interest in equities.
• The tech sector continues to grow, driven by demand for artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure.
• Banks, industrials, and energy add resilience to the market and support broad index growth.
• Investors expect more stable financial conditions, which maintains demand for U.S. equities.

Analysts at FreshForex believe that U.S. indices are holding near their highs not because they ignore geopolitics, but because the market currently sees profits, the AI cycle, banking stability, and capital inflows as stronger forces than current news-driven risks. As long as this logic holds, #SP500, #NQ100, and #DJI30 may remain elevated even in a tense external environment. What matters most for the market right now is not the headlines about conflicts themselves, but whether they begin to materially affect corporate earnings and expectations for the U.S. economy.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 24, 2026 EURUSD​

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

EURUSD:

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​

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1685, remaining under pressure after the dollar strengthened at the end of the week. The main factor is demand for the US currency as a safe-haven asset: US-Iran negotiations are showing no progress, while uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz is keeping oil prices elevated. This is negative for the euro, as rising energy costs increase pressure on the eurozone’s import-dependent economy.

Weak business activity data is an additional factor weighing on the pair. In April, the eurozone private sector contracted at the fastest pace since November 2024, while Germany downgraded its 2026 economic growth forecast due to the energy shock. Against this backdrop, investors are more cautious about the euro’s outlook, even despite expectations that the European Central Bank will keep rates unchanged for now.

The dollar is also supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will not rush to cut rates while assessing the impact of the conflict on inflation and growth. US bond yields remain attractive for dollar buyers. If tensions in the Middle East persist, the pair may continue to decline, so preference is given to selling.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1685, SL 1.1705, TP 1.1595

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[Fresh Forex]

Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 1 May 2026​

XAUUSD: BUY 4710.00, SL 4680.00, TP 4800.00​

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Gold starts the week near $4,710 per ounce after recovering from an intraday decline. Demand is supported by a weaker dollar, uncertainty around US-Iran negotiations, and expectations ahead of the Fed decision. Rising oil prices are increasing inflation risks, so the market will closely assess the regulator’s comments.

​

On the weekly horizon, the balance remains in favor of buyers: interest in safe-haven assets persists, while investors are waiting for signals on US interest rates. Pressure may arise if the dollar strengthens sharply, but the geopolitical backdrop and caution ahead of the Fed meeting continue to support XAU/USD.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4710.00, SL 4680.00, TP 4800.00

#SP500: BUY 7200, SL 7140, TP 7380​

​

#SP500 enters the week near 7,200 points in futures after reaching new highs last week. Sentiment is supported by strong earnings expectations for major technology companies, especially those related to artificial intelligence. Another supporting factor is the expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged.

The main risk for the index is expensive oil: it may increase inflation and worsen forecasts for corporate and consumer spending. Nevertheless, earnings reports from Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Apple may preserve demand for stocks if the companies confirm steady revenue growth and investment activity.

Trading recommendation: BUY 7200, SL 7140, TP 7380

#BRENT: BUY 107.50, SL 104.50, TP 116.50​

​

Brent starts the week near $107.50 per barrel, holding close to its highs since early April. The main reason for the rise is the delay in US-Iran negotiations and restrictions on supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. The market fears export disruptions, so the risk premium remains high.

On the weekly horizon, oil demand is supported by revised forecasts from major banks and concerns over inventories. Pressure may appear if dialogue resumes or if there are signals of higher supply, but for now, Middle East news keeps the advantage on the buyers’ side.

Trading recommendation: BUY 107.50, SL 104.50, TP 116.50

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for April 28, 2026 #NQ100​

#NQ100: SELL 27850, SL 27950, TP 26450.​

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​

The impulse is gradually beginning to lose strength. The upward movement of the index has clearly slowed down, although it has not completely lost momentum yet. In the near future, the index will likely continue moving upward by inertia, possibly setting another all-time high.

However, the remaining upside potential is already limited. The time for a correction is approaching, and it is expected to be fairly deep.

For trading in this situation, it is recommended to wait for the final upward push and then immediately consider opening short positions. Approximate price levels for entry and placement of a protective stop loss order can also be identified.

Investment idea: SELL 27850, SL 27950, TP 26450.

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[Fresh Forex]

Oil Turbulence, Metals Weaken​

​

Recently, the oil market has been at the center of strong volatility: #BRENT and #WTI prices are reacting to news surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, risks of supply disruptions, and negotiations involving Iran. Any signals of de-escalation push prices lower, while reports of new shipping restrictions drive oil upward again. Against this backdrop, gold and silver are declining: expensive oil fuels inflation expectations, which raises concerns about tighter Federal Reserve policy and a stronger dollar.

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​

Key volatility drivers:

• Brent — Strait of Hormuz and supply disruption risks Brent is especially sensitive to Middle East news, as a significant share of global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. As long as shipping remains under threat, prices react quickly even to isolated statements and incidents.
• WTI — impact of geopolitics and U.S. inventories WTI follows Brent’s movements but also reacts to U.S. oil and fuel inventory data. Declining gasoline and distillate stocks support prices, while rising crude inventories periodically cool buying interest.

Downside factors:

• XAUUSD — pressure from rates and the dollar Gold is declining as the market fears that expensive oil could reignite inflation and delay rate cuts. In such conditions, investors tend to favor dollar-denominated assets over gold.
• XAGUSD — weakness in industrial demand Silver is falling more sharply than gold because it depends not only on safe-haven demand but also on industrial consumption. Concerns about the global economy and high interest rates are adding pressure on XAGUSD.

#BRENT and #WTI remain highly volatile, as the oil market is currently driven by news on the Strait of Hormuz, shipping conditions, and negotiations around Iran. As long as these risks persist, prices may swing sharply in either direction—even within a single day.

XAUUSD and XAGUSD may continue to decline if high oil prices sustain inflation fears and the market does not see clear signals of imminent rate cuts.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 1, 2026 GBPUSD​

Event to pay attention to today:

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index

GBPUSD:

​

GBP/USD is trading around 1.3590–1.3592 after the latest price update. The pound is supported by the Bank of England’s decision to keep the interest rate at 3.75%. The 8–1 vote showed that part of the committee is already ready to consider a rate increase, which strengthens interest in the British currency amid persistent inflationary pressure.

The UK economy remains affected by expensive energy and uncertainty around the Middle East, but these factors are precisely what force the regulator to remain cautious about lowering borrowing costs. Inflation rising to 3.3% in March and Bank of England warnings about a possible further acceleration in prices support expectations that the interest rate will remain high for longer than previously expected.

The fundamental outlook for GBP/USD remains upward. The dollar is still supported after the Fed’s decision, but the market has already largely priced in the continuation of high US rates. The pound is supported by the risk of upward revisions to inflation forecasts and the likelihood of a stronger Bank of England response if higher energy prices continue to affect consumers and businesses.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3590, SL 1.3560, TP 1.3680

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[Fresh Forex]

Weekly Overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 8 May 2026​

XAUUSD: BUY 4607.00, SL 4557.00, TP 4757.00​

​

Gold starts the week near 4607.00 per ounce, with demand for safe-haven assets supported by tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran negotiations. At the same time, high oil prices are increasing inflation concerns, which limits further upside.

This week, the key factors for gold will be expectations around the Fed rate decision, the US dollar’s performance, and news from the Middle East. If uncertainty remains elevated, interest in gold may recover after short-term profit-taking.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4607.00, SL 4557.00, TP 4757.00

#SP500: BUY 7230, SL 7150, TP 7470​

​

The S&P 500 enters the week near 7230 after a strong end to April and new record highs. The index is supported by solid corporate earnings, especially in the technology sector, as well as expectations for upcoming reports from major companies.

High oil prices remain a limiting factor, as they increase inflation risks and may slow the pace of rate cuts in the US. However, economic resilience and strong earnings results are still outweighing this risk for now.

Trading recommendation: BUY 7230, SL 7150, TP 7470

#BRENT: BUY 108.14, SL 104.50, TP 119.10​

​

Brent is trading near 108.14 per barrel, supported by supply disruptions and continued uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. The US decision to assist vessels has reduced part of the tension, but the market is still assessing the risk of further delays.

Additional supply from OPEC+ remains a limited factor for now, as logistics in the region are still difficult. This week, oil prices will remain sensitive to news about US-Iran negotiations.

Trading recommendation: BUY 108.14, SL 104.50, TP 119.10

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for May 5, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: SELL 4569.37-4638.17, TP1-4500.47, TP2-4357.27.​

• Long-term trend: short. The maximum volume accumulation of the current contract is located in the range of 4780.00–4830.00. Currently, investment transactions on XAUUSD are taking place below this range, indicating sellers' strength.

​

• Medium-term trend: short. The maximum volume accumulation of the medium-term trend is located in the range of 4725.00–4745.00 and 4560.00–4580.00. Currently, investment transactions on XAUUSD are taking place below this range, indicating sellers' strength.

• The area of favorable selling prices in terms of margin is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones, built from the low of 04/05/2026.

• The lower boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4569.37.

• Lower boundary of the 1/2 zone is quoted at 4638.17.

• Intraday targets: Renew the lows from 04.05.2026 at 4500.47.

• Medium-term targets: Test the lower boundary of the SWCZ at 4357.27.

​

• Trading recommendations: Sell from the favorable price range when a reversal pattern forms.

• Sell: 4569.37-4638.17, Take Profit 1–4500.47, Take Profit 2–4357.27.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 6, 2026 USDJPY​

Event to watch today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change

USDJPY:

​

USD/JPY fell toward the 156.00 area on 6 May after a sharp strengthening of the yen and broad US dollar weakness. The market is reacting to reports of progress in US-Iran negotiations, which reduced demand for the dollar and pushed oil prices lower. This is important for Japan, as expensive energy worsens the country’s trade balance and weighs on the yen; a lower oil premium partly removes this negative factor.

Another factor supporting the yen is expectations of action by Japanese authorities. Japan’s finance minister again warned of readiness to take decisive measures against excessive speculative moves, while recent sharp fluctuations have intensified discussion of possible intervention. Even without official confirmation, this risk is making market participants more cautious about holding long dollar positions against the yen near elevated levels.

The dollar may receive support if upcoming US employment data confirm the resilience of the economy and keep the Federal Reserve on pause for longer. However, as of the current date, the combination of a weaker dollar, lower oil prices and the risk of Japanese intervention creates an advantage for further USD/JPY decline. Therefore, preference is given to selling from current levels.

Trading recommendation: SELL 156.15, SL 157.05, TP 153.45

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for May 7, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: BUY 81500, SL 80500, TP 95000.​

​

The price experienced some volatility during the previous trading day. Initially, Bitcoin rose confidently, but this was quickly followed by selling pressure that not only returned the price to the starting point of the rally, but also pushed it slightly lower.

For now, this is viewed as a corrective decline within a developing impulsive wave. Going forward, Bitcoin is expected to recover and continue its upward movement.

This outlook is supported by the presumed development of wave 3 of (iii) within the upward impulse.

Thus, long positions remain relevant and continue to offer attractive profit potential.

Investment idea: BUY 81500, SL 80500, TP 95000.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 8, 2026 EURUSD​

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

EURUSD:

​

EUR/USD is trading near 1.1730–1.1740 on Friday. The euro remains moderately supported as market participants continue to assess the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut later in 2026. Another supportive factor is the relatively stable macroeconomic outlook for the eurozone: the market is not pricing in a sharp deterioration in the ECB’s position, while a pause in further policy decisions supports demand for the single currency.

At the same time, the pair’s growth remains limited. Renewed tensions between the United States and Iran support the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, while rising oil prices increase concerns about inflationary pressure. Against this backdrop, investors are cautious about opening large positions against the dollar before the release of US labor market data, which may change expectations regarding the Fed’s future policy.

The fundamental picture remains moderately positive for EUR/USD, but without signs of accelerated growth. If US statistics do not strengthen expectations that rates will remain high for longer, the euro may continue to recover from current levels. Therefore, buying remains preferable, while taking into account possible volatility caused by US data and Middle East developments.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1735, SL 1.1705, TP 1.1830

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[Fresh Forex]

Weekly Overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 15 May 2026​

XAUUSD: SELL 4678.00, SL 4718.00, TP 4558.00​

​

Gold starts the week under pressure: spot XAU/USD is trading around $4,675–4,685 per ounce after declining amid a stronger dollar. The rise in oil prices has increased the risk of renewed inflation, weakening expectations of an early Fed rate cut and making demand for non-yielding assets more cautious.

Additional uncertainty comes from the US April Consumer Price Index, due on May 12. Geopolitical demand remains a supportive factor, but over the weekly horizon, the reassessment of interest rate expectations and the dollar looks more influential. The base scenario is a moderate decline with high sensitivity to inflation data.

Trading recommendation: SELL 4678.00, SL 4718.00, TP 4558.00

#SP500: BUY 7399, SL 7339, TP 7579​

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The S&P 500 enters the week after closing near record levels: the index finished May 8 around 7,399 points. The market is supported by strong corporate earnings, especially in sectors linked to artificial intelligence, as well as the continued resilience of the US economy.

The key risk this week is US April inflation and rising oil prices due to tensions around Iran. Higher fuel prices may put pressure on consumers and rate expectations, but investors are still focused on corporate profits and technology-related capital spending. This keeps the overall backdrop moderately positive.

Trading recommendation: BUY 7399, SL 7339, TP 7579

#BRENT: BUY 105.70, SL 102.20, TP 116.20​

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Brent starts the week near $105.70 per barrel after another price surge. The main driver is the failure of peace signals between the US and Iran and concerns over possible supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. The market is quickly pricing in a risk premium, as this route is crucial for global oil trade.

The weekly balance remains in favor of buyers: Barclays has already raised its Brent forecast for 2026, while the US Energy Information Administration expects prices to peak in the second quarter. The main limit to further growth is the risk of weaker demand amid expensive fuel, but for now, supply-related news remains more important.

Trading recommendation: BUY 105.70, SL 102.20, TP 116.20

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