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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 19.08.2025 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: SELL 114300, SL 115500, TP 107000

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After the mixed success of updating the historical maximum, there was a sharp decline. This type of development is often a signal of a trend change. Perhaps the decline that occurred is just the tip of the iceberg. All the most interesting things are yet to come.

The upward impulse is complete, and the downward movement is still insignificant, in order to give any assessment of this beginning decline. Perhaps we are in for a deep rollback movement, or the price will get stuck in a certain price range. In any case, there is still good potential for a decline and for making sell transactions. Below the minimum of wave 4, the price is likely to fall, and this is a pretty good movement on which you can try to make money.

Investment idea: SELL 114300, SL 115500, TP 107000.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for August 20, 2025 USDJPY​

Event to pay attention to today:

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes

USDJPY:​

The Japanese yen (JPY) recovered from a slight decline during the Asian session caused by mixed domestic data and on Wednesday showed positive dynamics for the second day in a row against the strengthening US dollar (USD). A government report showed that core orders for machinery and equipment in Japan unexpectedly rose in June. However, this was offset by a decline in Japanese exports in July for the third consecutive month, raising concerns about the outlook for the export-dependent economy. This added to uncertainty about the likely timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and triggered some intraday selling of the Japanese yen.

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On the other hand, the US dollar is attracting some follow-up buying for the third day in a row amid a decline in the likelihood of more aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This is proving to be another factor providing some support for the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, traders still consider it more likely that the Fed will resume its cycle of rate cuts in September. In contrast, the Bank of Japan is expected to stick to its policy normalization course and raise interest rates before the end of the year. This, in turn, could limit the US dollar's gains and help contain deeper losses for the lower-yielding Japanese yen ahead of the FOMC minutes release.

Trade recommendation: SELL 147.10, SL 148.00, TP 146.20

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Analysis of margin levels for 21 August 2025 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: SELL 3348.02-3385.52, TP1-3310.52, TP2-3191.22.

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• Long-term trend: temporary uncertainty. The maximum concentration of current contract volumes is located in the range of 3330.00–3350.00. Currently, investment operations are being carried out within the specified range for XAUUSD, which indicates temporary uncertainty. XAUUSD: SELL 3348.02-3385.52, TP1-3310.52, TP2-3191.22.



• Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 3358.00–3365.00 and 3337.00–3345.00. Currently, investment operations are being carried out within the specified range for XAUUSD, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

• The area of favorable prices for sale from the point of view of margin coverage is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the minimum of 20.08.2025.

• Quote for the lower boundary of zone 1/4–3348.02.

• Quote for the lower boundary of zone 1/2–3385.52.

• Intraday targets: update of lows from 20.08.2025–3310.52.

• Medium-term targets: test the lower boundary of SNKZ-3191.22. XAUUSD: SELL 3348.02-3385.52, TP1-3310.52, TP2-3191.22.



• Trading recommendations: sell from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

• Sell: 3348.02-3385.52, Take Profit 1–3310.52, Take Profit 2–3191.22.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for August 22, 2025 EURUSD​

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD starts Friday under pressure amid caution ahead of Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole. The market-implied probability of a September Fed rate cut has eased compared with the start of the week, supporting the dollar and cooling risk appetite. As a result, investors prefer defensive positioning while awaiting fresh guidance from the Fed and upcoming labor market and inflation prints. On balance, near-term fundamentals still favor the dollar.

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The euro’s domestic backdrop is not offering stable support either: August business activity and sentiment data have been mixed, while markets are watching how the ECB will proceed after its summer easing. In the absence of convincing signs of faster euro-area growth and with yield differentials still favoring the U.S., the euro has fewer reasons to strengthen ahead of U.S. releases.

Additional volatility stems from ongoing U.S.–EU trade and industrial policy discussions, where headlines shift quickly. Until there is concrete progress on tariffs or joint support measures for industry, investors usually avoid aggressive long euro exposure. Taken together, these fundamental factors create a tactical advantage for the dollar over the euro in today’s session.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1590, SL 1.1630, TP 1.1530

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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 25, 2025 GBPUSD​

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - Primary Home Sales

GBPUSD:

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Sterling’s fundamental support stems from a softer dollar on rising expectations of a Fed cut and a cautiously hawkish Bank of England. UK disinflation over the summer has been slow, the labor market remains tight, and wage growth is resilient. This keeps the BoE signaling that the room for deep rate cuts is limited, which is positive for GBP via the yield differential channel.

An additional tailwind for the pound is the stabilization in consumer activity in both the U.S. and UK alongside dollar softness. Falling U.S. yields after dovish Fed signals make sterling more attractive versus the USD, while the risk premium around the UK economy remains manageable. Communications from some BoE members about a gradual approach to further decisions reduce the likelihood of aggressive easing and support the currency.

Over the next sessions, markets will reassess rate trajectories: any confirmation of a softer Fed path alongside a neutral/cautious BoE stance increases the odds of further GBPUSD strength. Upside UK inflation or growth disappointments are risks to this view, but today the fundamental balance remains in sterling’s favor.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3505, SL 1.3455, TP 1.3575

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[Fresh Forex]

#FTSE100 hits all-time high — what’s next, higher still?​

On August 22, 2025, #FTSE100 closed at an all-time high of 9355.6 points. The main driver of growth was a surge of foreign capital, especially from U.S. investors seeking undervalued assets and boosting demand for UK equities. Defense and commodity companies led the rally, adding optimism amid strong corporate earnings and high dividends. Some bank stocks corrected lower, but the weight of industrial and export-oriented leaders was enough to push the index to record territory.

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Why the FTSE 100 is setting new records: 5 growth factors:

1. Strong UK macroeconomic indicators: Steady GDP growth and a narrowing trade deficit reinforce the foundation for further #FTSE100 gains.
2. Inflow of foreign investments: Massive capital inflows from the U.S. and other countries have shifted focus and funds into UK equities, strongly supporting the index.
3. Outperformers among exporters and defensive sectors: Growth in defense, mining, and financial companies provided fundamental support to the index’s upward momentum.
4. Dividend appeal and low valuations: #FTSE100 offers high dividends and relatively low P/E ratios, making it attractive for investors seeking both yield and value safety.
5. Global diversification and resilience to local risks: The multinational structure of companies and dollar-based revenues shield the index from domestic economic and currency weaknesses, ensuring long-term stability.

The current #FTSE100 rally is the result of a powerful mix: foreign capital inflows, strength in defense and commodity sectors, and appealing dividends against a backdrop of moderate global rate policy. FreshForex analysts note that if investment flows persist and corporate leaders continue to deliver strong earnings and buybacks, the index may remain near record highs.

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 28.08.2025 #NQ100​

#NQ100: BUY 23500, SL 23350, TP 24450

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The latest trading session for this index can be considered uneventful. The price essentially remained unchanged, staying at the same level. This is likely how the correction and buyers’ preparation for a decisive push toward the upper boundary of the forming terminal diagonal triangle are developing.

If this interpretation is correct, we should see an upward move in this asset in the near future. Therefore, previously opened long positions are recommended to be held.

Additionally, it is worth considering opening extra long positions in the same direction.

Investment idea: BUY 23500, SL 23350, TP 24450.

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[Fresh Forex]

#DJI30 hits record highs: The index just made history!​

On August 22, 2025, the #DJI30 surged past 45,700, setting a new all-time high. The rally was fueled by growing expectations of a Fed rate cut, with cheap money once again making stocks attractive. Strong earnings reports from industrial and banking sectors, along with new White House infrastructure investment plans, added to the bullish sentiment. A solid labor market and resilient consumer activity continue to ease recession fears, prompting capital to flow out of volatile assets and into blue-chip stocks. As a result, #DJI30 posted a powerful breakout and reinforced its role as a key barometer of U.S. economic strength.

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Why the #DJI30 rally may still have room to run:

• Easing Fed policy: Lower rates and controlled inflation create favorable conditions for borrowing and investing.
• U.S. infrastructure expansion: Government spending on transport, energy, and digitalization supports real-sector companies — the core of #DJI30.
• Strong corporate earnings & dividends: Many Dow components offer reliable dividends, making the index attractive amid broader market volatility.
• Shift from risky assets: Funds and individual investors are rotating out of crypto and growth stocks into more stable “industrial giants.”
• U.S. geopolitical resilience: Despite global tensions, the U.S. remains a “safe haven” for investors, boosting demand for American equities.

The continued rise of #DJI30 is underpinned by robust corporate profitability and the overall resilience of the U.S. economy. The latest earnings season confirmed the strength of major industrial and financial players, while easing inflation and expectations of a Fed rate cut provide a supportive backdrop. #DJI30 remains a reliable gauge of market stability and investor risk appetite worldwide. According to FreshForex, this opens a window of opportunity for long positions on #DJI30.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for September 1, 2025 USDJPY​

USDJPY:

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The Japanese yen (JPY) is struggling to capitalize on its modest gains during the Asian session and remains below the 147.00 mark at the start of the new week. Geopolitical risks associated with Russia's large-scale attack on Ukraine and the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas may provide some support for the yen as a safe-haven currency. In addition, growing recognition that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will soon raise interest rates is further helping to limit deeper losses for the yen.

Meanwhile, expectations of a hawkish BoJ policy are at odds with growing bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut borrowing costs twice before the end of 2025. This may deter USD bulls from aggressive bets and limit the upside for the USD/JPY pair. Traders may also refrain from aggressive directional bets and prefer to wait for US macroeconomic data to be released at the beginning of the new month, which requires caution from yen bears.

Trade recommendation: SELL 146.65, SL 147.45, TP 145.55

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for 2 September 2025 #NQ100​

#NQ100: BUY 23201.4-23478.9, TP1-23756.4, TP2-24652.9.

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• Long-term trend: long. The maximum concentration of current contract volumes is located in the range of 23350.0–23550.0. Currently, investment transactions are being carried out within the specified range for #NQ100, which indicates temporary uncertainty. #NQ100: BUY 23201.4-23478.9, TP1-23756.4, TP2-24652.9.

• Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 23520.0–23580.0. Currently, investment transactions on #NQ100 are being carried out below the specified range, which indicates weakness among buyers.

• The area of favorable purchase prices from the point of view of margin coverage is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 28.08.2025.

• The upper limit of zone 1/4 is quoted at 23478.9.

• The upper limit of zone 1/2 is quoted at 23201.4.

• Intraday targets: updating the highs from 28.08.2025–23756.4.

• Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the ZNKZ – 24652.9.#NQ100: BUY 23201.4-23478.9, TP1-23756.4, TP2-24652.9.

• Investment recommendations: buy from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

• Buy: 23201.4-23478.9, Take Profit 1-23756.4, Take Profit 2-24652.9.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for September 3, 2025 USDJPY​

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - JOLTs Job Openings

USDJPY:

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The yen softens on the back of global yield strength and domestic political uncertainty, while the dollar gains support from the US curve and a weaker risk mood. At preparation time the pair trades near 148.85, with swings amplified by changing signals from US activity gauges.

Domestic Japanese factors have yet to offer the yen a firm anchor. Despite a pickup in long-end JGB yields, the Bank of Japan’s policy guidance remains highly gradual, and abundant dollar liquidity alongside Japan’s external terms of trade continue to pose headwinds for JPY. Verbal-intervention risks from the MoF stay on the radar but lack clear triggers for a trend reversal.

The US, by contrast, benefits from elevated real yields and resilient labor-market expectations. As long as the risk backdrop and yield differentials persist, the fundamental balance favors buying dips, with scope to test psychological levels on the upside.

Trading recommendation: BUY 148.85, SL 148.35, TP 149.50

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[Fresh Forex]

This week’s main event: Non-Farm Payrolls – Friday at 15:30!​

This Friday, September 5, 2025 at 15:30 EET, the U.S. Department of Labor will release one of the most anticipated macroeconomic reports — the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). This release could confirm whether hopes for a near-term Fed policy shift are justified — the very hopes that helped U.S. equities climb to historic highs in late August. Markets see this report as a checkpoint for both the ongoing rally and rate expectations.

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NFP and the markets: 3 possible scenarios

• Strong report: If job creation exceeds expectations, unemployment falls, and wages accelerate — markets may believe the Fed will stay cautious on cutting rates. Typically, this boosts the dollar and bond yields, while growth stocks and tech underperform. More traditional sectors like banking, industry, and energy tend to hold up better. Gold and crypto often dip under pressure from a stronger USD and rising yields.
• Weak report: If job gains disappoint, unemployment rises, and wage growth slows — this strengthens the case for a faster Fed pivot. In this case, the dollar usually softens, yields fall, and growth stocks, gold, and major crypto (BTC/ETH) gain on expectations of lower rates.
• Neutral report: If numbers align closely with forecasts and there’s no big surprise, markets may remain range-bound. Initial reactions fade quickly, and focus shifts to the details — such as wage data and revisions to past reports. Price action often becomes choppy and short-lived until the next key catalyst.

The September 5 NFP release is a crossroads moment before the Fed’s September 16–17 meeting. Volatility is almost guaranteed, and the market’s reaction will depend on the combination of headline jobs number, unemployment rate, wage growth, and revisions. According to FreshForex, this setup offers tactical trade setups across forex, metals, and crypto pairs.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for September 5, 2025 EURUSD​

Event to pay attention today:

15:30 EET. USD — Change in Nonfarm Payrolls / Unemployment Rate

EURUSD:

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A series of U.S. economic data showed that labor market conditions are deteriorating. The August Challenger Job Cuts report indicated that companies laid off nearly 86 thousand Americans, while the ADP National Employment report for August fell short of expectations. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits increased as labor data moved into focus.

Market participants have almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut. Nevertheless, the approaching Nonfarm Payrolls report suggests that EUR/USD traders should wait for its release before opening new positions.

Other data showed that the trade deficit widened in July as companies rushed to increase shipments and inventories ahead of tariffs taking effect. At the same time, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), business activity in the services sector improved.

Given the U.S. fundamental backdrop, this scenario points to a slowing yet resilient economy. Nevertheless, the labor market seems to be asserting itself, justifying Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s pivot at Jackson Hole, where he opened the door to adjusting interest rates.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1665, SL 1.1685, TP 1.1580

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[Fresh Forex]

Gold Hits Record Highs: $3,600 per Ounce and Still Climbing!​

On September 5, 2025, gold reached new record highs — $3,599.77 per ounce — thanks to unexpectedly weak U.S. labor market data. This data reinforced expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut, which traditionally supports gold prices by reducing the yield of alternative assets.

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5 Reasons Why Gold Is the Main Asset of 2025:

1. Expectation and implementation of Fed rate cuts: Weak U.S. employment data has strengthened expectations of a monetary policy easing, favorable for gold as it lowers alternative asset yields.
2. U.S. dollar weakening: As the dollar depreciates, gold priced in USD becomes more affordable for holders of other currencies, boosting demand and prices.
3. Rising geopolitical and economic instability: Growing global uncertainty drives investors into safe-haven assets, with gold remaining the traditional hedge against risks.
4. Central banks’ active gold purchases: Central banks are diversifying reserves, reducing dollar holdings, and allocating more into gold — creating a steady base demand.
5. Increased demand from ETFs and institutional investors: Rising inflows into gold ETFs indicate growing investor confidence in gold, further strengthening price dynamics.

The main drivers of gold’s growth remain Fed rate cut expectations, dollar weakness, and active central bank gold purchases. The breakout above $3,600 per ounce has cemented gold’s status as the key safe-haven asset of 2025. According to FreshForex, the current trend creates favorable conditions for opening long positions in XAUUSD while maintaining strict risk management.

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Catch the growth wave​