EUR/USD news today.

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Sep 23, 2021
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EUR/USD’s downside picks up further pace and breaks below the 1.1600 support to clinch fresh 2021 lows around 1.1570.

A technical rebound could be in the pipeline in the very near term considering the current oversold condition of the spot on a daily basis. The broader outlook, however, points south and a close below the 200-week SMA at 1.1572 should allow for further downside to the 1.1500 neighbourhood, where the March 2020 high sits.

In the meantime, the near-term outlook for EUR/USD is seen on the negative side while below the key 200-day SMA, today at 1.1966.
 

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Today Analysis
New quarter set to begin with losses for Wall Street as U.S. stock futures fall

On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 547 points, or 1.59%, to 33844, the S&P 500 declined 52 points, or 1.19%, to 4308, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 64 points, or 0.44%, to 14449.

For September, the Dow lost 4.3%, the S&P 500 fell 4.8% and snapped a seven-month winning streak, and the Nasdaq Composite was off 5.3%, its worst September in a decade. For the quarter, the Dow fell 1.9%, the S&P 500 was up 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4%.
 
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The GBP to EUR exchange rate lost some ground in the week but recovered towards the weekend.

At the outset, fears grew over the energy crisis as wholesale gas prices hit another record high. This forced another three firms to stop trading. The week also began with panic buyers descending on UK forecourts and seeing a large number of retailers without fuel.

The GBP v EUR was trading back near 1.16500 on Friday after the final Q2 reading for UK GDP came in ahead of expectations.
 
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EUR/USD leaves behind part of Monday’s advance to the 1.16400 area and returns to the 1.1600 neighbourhood on Tuesday.

If sellers push harder, then there are rising bets for the pair to retest the area of recent 2021 lows in the vicinity of 1.1560 (September 30). A breakdown of this area should put a potential decline to the 1.1500 zone back on the radar.

In the meantime, the near-term outlook for EUR/USD is seen on the negative side below the key 200-day SMA, today at 1.1957.
 

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The dollar held close to a 14-month high against the euro on Thursday, as a surge in energy prices raised the risk that the U.S. Federal Reserve would act sooner to normalise policy.

The U.S. currency was slightly lower at $1.1563 per euro after strengthening to $1.1529 on Wednesday for the first time since July of last year.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, was little changed at 94.118 following a nearly 0.5% climb over the past two sessions. It was near last week’s one-year high of 94.504.
 

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EUR/USD Consolidates Losses Near the 2021 Low at 1.1528 and Could Fall Further

The EUR/USD pair trades in the 1.1560 price zone, barely up on Thursday, despite a much better market mood. Global stocks advanced following news that US Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer announced an agreement on extending the debt ceiling by $408 billion until early December. However, the better market mood could not offset EUR weakness, as the common currency remains on the backfoot amid poor local data. Germany published August Industrial Production, which fell by 4% MoM, much worse than the -0.4% expected. The annual reading was 1.7%, well below the 11.4% expected.
 

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EUR/CAD Forecast: Bearish

The Canadian Dollar has made more progress versus the Euro, with EUR/CAD’s current monthly loss approaching 1.25% on Friday. That would add to CAD’s prior month gains versus the Euro. Price began to fall sharply in late September. The bearish price action in the currency pair has created a downward channel, which has contained price action over the last few weeks.

Given the current trend, it’s fair to assume that the Canadian Dollar will continue its current course against the Euro. That said, EUR/CAD’s outlook is skewed to the bearish side.
 

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British started a fresh decline after it failed to clear 1.3830 against the US Dollar. GBP/USD declined heavily below the 1.3700 and 1.3600 support levels.

The pair even spiked below 1.3500 and a low was formed near 1.3427. The pair is now attempting a recovery above 1.3450. It even moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3695 swing high to 1.3427 low.
 

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Eurozone inflation jumped to 4.9% in November a record high

The USD is falling sharply following Fed Powell’s dovish comments in the previous session which caused investors to push back on expectations of an interest rate rise given the uncertainty surrounding the outlook.

EUR/USD is charging higher thanks in part to the weaker US dollar and thanks to surging inflation in the Eurozone. Eurozone inflation jumped to 4.9% in November a record high, well above the 4.5% forecast and up from 4.1% in October. Higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions were the main contributors to rising prices. Energy is on track for its highest annual rise in November at 27.4%.
 

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