Daily Market Analysis from Hotforex Broker

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,119
2
74
Date : 30th June 2021.

Market Update – June 30 – Gold at its worst monthly drop.




Jitters over the rapid spread of the more infectious Delta variant seem to be receding and Treasury yields have moved higher overnight, as equity markets across the Asia-Pacific region gained after US shares touched record highs yesterday, but pared gains into the close.

Hopes that vaccines will be effective mean investors are sticking with the recovery story after strong US data yesterday boosted economic optimism.

JPN225 is currently down by 0.13%, with a disappointing contraction in industrial production weighing on sentiment. China official PMI readings also eased, however, the slowing in the pace of expansion is not a surprise given supply chain disruptions around the world, though the data continued to suggest China’s recovery remains on pace. Cyclicals rallied, while Bank stocks were mostly higher following announced dividend increases and stock buybacks. Improved consumer confidence and a year over year surge in home prices supported equities at the margins. Wall Street closed slightly higher yesterday, with indexes touching new highs. GER30 and UK100 futures are also fractionally higher.

UK Q1 GDP revised down to -1.6% q/q in the final reading, from -1.5% q/q previously. The annual rate was confirmed at -6.1% y/y. Private consumption corrected -4.6% q/q, reflecting mainly the impact of a relatively strict lockdown that quarter. Government spending rose 1.5% q/q, while exports slumped -6.1% and imports -13.5%. Investment contracted less than initially feared, but was still down -1.7% q/q, although at this point and with the economy heading for a full re-opening in July and already pretty much on track for a strong rebound thanks to vaccination programs, the Q1 number doesn’t really change the overall picture or outlook.

Forex Market: USDJPY is at 110.46, after the Dollar firmed on haven demand. The Australian and NZ Dollars are under pressure so far, USDJPY has steadied above 110.40 while the EUR steadied above 1.1890. The Pound declined to 1.3810 lows and is currently settled at the 1.3850 area. USOIL meanwhile lifted to USD 73.42 per barrel after an industry report showed US crude stockpiles fell last week, overriding trader and investor concerns about transportation curbs in some countries as COVID-19 cases surge. Gold is down 7.8% so far this month, and heading for its worst monthly drop since November 2016.

Today’s Calendar – Markets are also keeping a close eye on signals from central banks and in particular the Fed, after strong consumer confidence readings out of the US yesterday. Today’s calendar focuses on German jobless numbers and of course the preliminary reading for Eurozone June HICP, Canadian GDP and US ADP employment change.



Significant FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPUSD retests the 1,3800 area for a 2nd day in a row wıth faster MAs bullishly crossed and RSI at 37 and pointing lower. MACD signal line and histogram are negatively configured, while Stochastic turned below OS barrier, all suggesting that the short term decline continues.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,119
2
74
Date : 8th July 2021.

Market Update – July 8 – USD & JPY on Bid as Risk Off Raises its Head.




Market News Today – USD at 3-month highs, Bonds rallied/Yields dived, Nasdaq & S&P hit another ATH. Seem familiar? FOMC minutes showed “Hawkish Tilt” & some members up for tapering as early as this year – conditions could be “met somewhat earlier than anticipated”. Asian equities down as risk off bites on Virus spikes, with Sydney, Indonesia and South Korea mixed. USDIndex up to 92.82 yesterday – 92.70 now, EUR slips under 1.1800, JPY down to 110.25 & Cable under 1.3800 at 1.3775. Gold holds $1800, down from $1808, USOil down again at $71.15 now; what next for OPEC? 10yr yields dived under 1.300%.

Overnight – RBA’s Lowe acknowledged QE will be required for foreseeable future, strong UK housing data, better data from JPY & German Trade balance missed expectations.

Week Ahead – FOMC Minutes, RBA Rate Decision, ECB Growth Forecasts & Special Strategy Meeting.

European Open
– The September 10-year Bund future is higher, the 30-year outperforming, similar to developments in US futures. Yields continue to fall and curves flatten as markets adjust their tapering and central bank expectations amid the realization that the initial bounce back in activity is starting to level off – high levels and capacity constraints limiting the scope for a further acceleration in growth. In cash markets the US 10-year rate dropped back a further -1.2 bp to just 1.304%, and the German 10-year is set to fall further below the -0.3% mark. DAX and FTSE100 futures meanwhile are down -0.1% and -0.4% respectively and US futures are also in the red.

Today – ECB Minutes, Strategy Review Announcement and Lagarde Press Conference, US Initial & Continuing Unemployment Claims.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.96%). Rallied to 78.00 highs yesterday before closing at 77.60. Move lower today on JPY bid, under 77.00. Faster MAs aligned lower, RSI 26.70 OS and still falling rising, MACD signal line & histogram remain significantly below 0 line & falling. H1 ATR 0.0015, Daily ATR 0.0065.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,119
2
74
Date : 16th July 2021.

Market Update – July 16 – Stocks stalled.




Curve-flattening trades pressed longer dated Treasury rates lower again Thursday after Fed Chair Powell did not change his tune regarding the view on inflation; that it should be temporary, & that an accommodative stance is still necessary.

The curve collapsed to 108 bps, having retreated from 116 bps early in the week. It was the narrowest since February . Elsewhere BoJ did the expected & kept policy settings unchanged for now, but cut back its growth forecast for this year. JPN225 share average dipped below the psychologically key 28,000 mark as tech shares tracked declines on Wall Street overnight, while a continued surge in coronavirus infections dented investor sentiment. Weakness in chip-related shares also helped bring down USA500 & USA100.

European stock markets struggled yesterday, Gilts sold off & Bunds pared gains as BoE’s Saunders added to comments from Deputy Governor Ramsden suggesting asset purchases may have to end earlier than previously expected. At the same time, the Delta variant & concern over the fallout from recent devastating floods in Germany could also weigh on the GER30 today.

Mixed earnings, uncertainties over inflation & Covid, along with current richly priced valuations prompted some profit taking.


FX markets: EURUSD dropped to 1.1806, while GBPUSD eased to 1.3810. NZD up 0.6% at $0.7020 after consumer prices rose far faster than expected, bringing forward markets’ rate hike expectations to August. USOIL stayed under pressure drifting below $71.00 barrier. Gold on the other hand hit a 1-month high of $1,834.3, supported by a dovish Fed.

Today Eurozone May trade & June CPI. US releases include Retail Sales & Michigan Index.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.88%). NZD remains the biggest mover amongst majors in the Asia session, & so far, however the rally seems to have run out of steam as fast MAs flattened along with RSI at 55. MACD’s signal line remains negative while Stochastics gives mixed signals at OB area.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


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Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,119
2
74
Date : 23rd July 2021.

Market Update – July 23 – USD & Equities move higher.




Market News Today – USD dipped following ECB & weak US data but has recovered as USDIndex eyes 93.00 again & a “Golden Cross”. EUR 1.1770, JPY 110.30, Cable 1.3750. Equities struggled but ended up, USA500 (+0.20%), Strong Earnings #TWTR. Yields held gains 1.265%. Virus concerns continue to weigh, US Republicans now encouraging vaccinations. USOil breached & broke $70.00, Gold back over $1800. Overnight – JPY closed until Monday, shares in Asia struggled to follow US higher, AUD PMI data at 14-mth lows (50% of popn. in lockdown) & UK Retail Sales data beat as restrictions continue to ease and football was supposed to come Home.

ECB – Negative Rates Are Here to Stay – ECB tweaked its rate guidance yesterday which resulted in an even stronger signal that the bank expects this year’s inflation overshoot to be temporary. The marginally higher inflation target & refined hurdles for rate hikes have pushed an exit from negative rates even further into the future, but doesn’t necessarily clarify the outlook on asset purchases & PEPP. The focus on the forward guidance may actually signal a shift back from asset purchase targets to rates as the main signal for the ECB’s policy stance.

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is down -3 ticks, Treasury futures are slightly underperforming. DAX and FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are up 0.3% and US futures are posting similar gains. The ECB’s affirmation of its ultra-accommodative policy stance and the strengthening of the guidance on rates should continue to keep sentiment underpinned. ECB’s Villeroy also stressed this morning that it was perfectly justified to stick with accommodative settings for now, but also indicated that the central bank will look at asset purchases again in September. For now though virus developments and the rapid spread of the Delta variant is likely to keep a lid on growth optimism.

Today – Flash Eurozone, UK & US PMIs, CBR Rate Decision, Canadian Retail Sales. Earnings from Danske Bank, American Express and Honeywell.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.21%) 4th day of big move from lows of 0.6330 on Tuesday, to test 20-Day MA (0.6417) today. Breached 21EMA yesterday, faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 59 and rising, MACD signal line & histogram rising & significantly above 0 line. H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily ATR 0.0064.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,119
2
74
Date : 29th July 2021.

Market Update – July 29 – Equities gained on the back of a dovish FED.




Narrow ranges prevailed across asset classes yesterday and there wasn’t too much of a reaction to yesterday’s Fed announcement. The Fed provided some buying impetus and both stocks and bonds closed with modest gains in tandem with Treasuries and Wall Street. Overnight, the Treasury yields lifted 0.3 bp to 1.24% as Chinese shares led a broad rebound in Asian stock markets.

  • Like the ECB, the Fed signalled progress on the recovery, but also effectively signalled a cautious wait and see stance over the summer.– The FOMC signalled patience on tapering.
  • Chinese officials stepped up efforts to reassure investors, with state run media questioning whether the correction in equities was overdone and reports suggesting China will continue to allow local firms to go public in the US.
  • China’s central bank boosted cash injections by adding 30 billion Yuan.
  • Australia import and export prices came in higher than anticipated, which left local bonds paring earlier gains.
  • Topixand JPN225 are currently up 0.2% and 0.6%.
  • GER30and UK100 futures are down -0.1% though and US futures narrowly mixed, as investors wait for US GDP data.
  • Weekly US inventory data showed a 4.1 mln barrel draw on stockpiles, more than the median forecast for a 3.43 mln draw.
  • A Reuters reporthighlights analysts are expecting a quicker-than-is-being-anticipated plateau in summer oil demand across the northern hemisphere due to the impact of new restrictions in the face of the Delta variant driven spike in new Covid cases.
  • Proposed US infrastructure deallooks to higher taxes on crypto for part of the funding.
  • Pfizer Inc. in Q2 2021 jumped 92% on the year to $19 billion, exceeding analyst expectations.
  • Nissan Motor and some semiconductor firms (Advantest, Screen Holdings, TDK) delivered surprisingly strong earnings.
In FX markets: Both the EUR and the Pound have moved higher against a largely weaker USD, with EURUSD now at 1.1863 and Cable at 1.3936. USDJPY dropped back to 109.66. USOIL meanwhile is trading at $72.20 per barrel. Gold prices spiked to 1819 as the US Federal Reserve chairman struck a dovish tone after the policy meeting.

Today: The European calendar is busy today with German HICP inflation and labour market data alongside the Eurozone ESI economic confidence reading. Markets are also waiting for US GDP data.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) XAUUSD (+0.72%) – Spiked to 1819.81 breaking 20-, 50- and 200-day EMA. Currently the fast MAs are still aligned higher as MACD signal line & histogram point northwards and RSI extended to 71.60 suggesting that the positive bias increases.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,119
2
74
Date : 5th August 2021.

Market Update – August 5 – USD Holds gains following Hawkish Clarida.




Market News Today – USD (USDIndex 92.20) & Yields (10yr 1.20%) boosted. Fed Vice Chair Clarida continues hawkish tilt. Earlier big miss for ADP (330k vs 700k) had seen Yields tank to 1.127% (6-mth low) & USDIndex 91.80 before big beat for ISM Non-Manu. PMI & Clarida’s “rate lift-off in 2023” & “tapering in 2021” comments. Equities mixed at close (USA500 -0.46% 4402). Asian markets hold gains. Oil inventories show a big build (+3.6m vs -3.2m & -4.1m last week) – USOil declined further to $67.16 (11-day low) recovered $68.00 handle now. Gold spiked to $1830 after ADP, back to $1810 now. German Factory orders – a big beat 4.1% vs 2.1%.

European Open – September 10-yr Bund future up 20 ticks, while Treasury futures are slightly lower, as investors continue to digest comments from Clarida, who said he was surprised by the extent of the slide in global yields – indeed it seems surprising that with the recovery now pretty much confirmed, the German 10-yr rate should be at -0.503%, i.e. lower than the deposit rate.

BOE Outlook – Some risk of hawkish twist. The bank is expected to keep policy settings unchanged, but some expect Bailey to explain the outcome of the review on how to best withdraw stimulus when the time comes. If he does, it should not be seen as a sign of imminent tightening, but could spook markets, especially after Clarida’s comments yesterday. US futures are fractionally higher. In FX markets EURUSD is little changed at 1.1840, while Cable is at 1.3925 ahead of BOE.

Today – US weekly jobs, BoE Policy Announcement & Press Conference, Fed’s Waller. Earnings: Adidas, Bayer, Continental, Credit Agricole, Lufthansa, Deutsche Post, Siemens, Glencore, Rolls Royce, WPP, ViacomCBS, Kellogg.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.32%) Rallied from 80.50 support to 81.00 yesterday before closing lower at 80.75. Retesting 81.00 again today. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram over 0 significantly and moving higher, RS 60 and still rising. H1 ATR 0.081, Daily ATR 0.710.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,119
2
74
Date : 1st September 2021.

Market Update – September 1.



Market News Today

European bond markets and Eurozone peripherals in particular sold off yesterday, as more ECB officials flagged the possibility of a tapering announcement next week and it seems pretty certain now that the ECB will start to take the foot off the accelerator as it revises its growth forecast upwards once again. Activity is now expected to reach pre-crisis levels as soon as the end of this year, and fiscal support should increase, which reduces the need for central bank support to some extent at least. Central bank officials will stress the very dovish guidance on the rate outlook though in order to avoid a taper tantrum.

  • Bonds in Australia and Zealand underperformed and sold off sharply as traders assess the economic outlook against the background of virus developments.
  • Australia Q2 GDP beat most estimates. GDP numbers have prompted some to ditch expectations that the RBA will postpone planned moves.
  • Japan’s Markit manufacturing PMI was revised higher and continues to signal expansion.
  • USD (USDIndex 92.75) strengthened.
  • Equities are mixed as GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 0.5%, alongside gains in US futures, which is encouraging. China’s tech stocks shake off risks.
  • EURand Sterling are lower against the Dollar, but it is the CHF that is mostly under pressure this morning.
  • USOil is trading at $68.92 as traders assess the prospect for an easing of output restrictions ahead of the OPEC+ meeting today. (Saudi struggling to increase supply, Shrinking US stockpiles, a rebound in Indian demand China’s outbreak.
  • Gold steadied to 1,810-1,817.
European OpenGerman retail sales corrected -5.1% m/m in July, a much more pronounced correction than anticipated, largely related to the ebb and flow of virus developments and restrictions.

Today – Data releases today are unlikely to change the outlook, and focus on final manufacturing PMI readings for the Eurozone and the UK. Eurozone unemployment data for July are also due. In the US, we have ADP and ISM data.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.41%) Spikes to 2-week highs to 80.82 from 78.00 lows. Faster MAs aligned higher. The MACD signal line & histogram are rising strongly. RSI at 70 and rising. H1 ATR 0.096, Daily ATR 0.733.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,119
2
74
Date : 8th September 2021.

Market Update – September 8 – USD Bounces as Yields Rise.



Market News

  • USD (USDIndex 92.60) rallies on back of rising yields & equity wobbles.
  • Yields rallied as Treasuries slipped, (10yr 1.37%).
  • Equities stalled USA500 -15 at 4520 (Dow lost -0.76%), Nasdaq flat. USAFUTS at 4521, post Labor Day profit taking, cyclicals slipped, tech held on. (MS talks of 10-15% pull back).
  • USOil recovered from $67.50, back to $68.50 now, but well below $70.00 pre-NFP high.
  • Gold tanked to $1792 from 1828 yesterday and 1833 on Friday. Trades at $1795 now.
  • Overnight – JPY GDP beat (0.5% vs 0.2%) but Econ Sentiment slipped.
European Open – Yesterday EZ GDP revised higher, but sentiment was weaker. Today December 10yr Bund future is down -8 ticks, slightly underperforming versus Treasury futures. The paper is off the highs seen during the Asian session however, & investors will look for Fedspeak today for further guidance on US interest rate outlook. Markets seem resigned to an ECB announcement this week of a slight tapering of PEPP purchases that will likely see Bunds underperforming versus Gilts & Treasuries. DAX & FTSE 100 futures down -0.025% and -0.336% respectively after a largely weaker Asia session. FX markets: EURUSD down to 1.1835, from 1.1890 yesterday, GBP struggled and Cable dipped to 1.3755, after the government announced tax hikes that will hit workers and businesses. USDJPY rallied from 109.68 yesterday to breach & hold 110.00, at 110.40.

Today – US Crude Private Inventories, BoC Policy Decision, JOLTS report, BoE’s Bailey, Ramsden, Broadbent, Tenreyro, Fed’s Williams.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.13%) All AUD pairs remain pressured following RBA yeasterday. Breached, 0.7400 to 0.7370 now. Faster MA’s aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 line but flat. RSI 28.80, OS but still falling. Stochs OS n still falling. H1 ATR 0.00082, Daily ATR 0.00615.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,119
2
74
Date : 15th September 2021.

Market update – September 15 – Stocks plunging again.



Market News

  • Treasury yields plunged & Stock markets struggled against the background of weaker data. Buy stops were triggered on the way south for yields and added to the richening in bonds.
  • Topix and JPN225 have lost -1.15% and -0.46% respectively. USA500 is posted a 0.6% decrease, USA100 down -0.45% while the USA30 was the weakest, slipping -0.84% as hefty declines were registered in energy, materials, industrials, and financials.
  • China data round disappoints. – Retail sales down, Growth slowdown, Industrial Production weaker and investment growth also missed expectations. – The data round for China highlighted the impact of virus developments and added to the US inflation miss that left investors scaling back tapering concerns as soon as next week’s policy meeting.
  • British inflation surged last month to its highest level since March 2012, i.e. 3.2% y/y.
  • Fitch said that numerous sectors could be exposed to heightened credit risk if China’s No.2 property developer were to default, although the overall impact on the banking sector would be manageable. – Evergrande – fell for the 3rd consecutive day, losing as much as 5.1% to their lowest since January 2014.
  • Amazon to hire 125,000 people in advance of the holiday shopping season.
  • Apple unveiled an array of new hardware offerings.
  • Chevron to triple its modest spending on green energy by 2028.
  • The JPY strengthened as risk aversion picked up and USDJPY dropped back to 109.59.
  • The EUR and GBP are little changed against the Dollar – EURUSD just over the 1.18 mark and Cable at 1.3823.
  • USOil supported above $70.40, on a larger than expected drawdown in crude oil stocks in the United States.
  • Gold jumped initially to 1,808 but is currently back to the 1800 floor, which it hit on prospects for lower interest rates.
Today: There is a lot on today’s calendar, including Canadian Inflation, US August Industrial Production, Import and Export prices and September Empire State index.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USA30 dipped to 34,501 from 35,000. Currently the asset sustains above 34560 however BB extends lower on the daily basis with RSI at 39 and slipping and MACD turning negative implying an increase of the negative bias in themedium term. Daily ATR 269.9.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
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HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,119
2
74
Date : 22nd September 2021.

Market Update – September 22 – No Turnaround Tuesday.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Market News

  • USD (USDIndex 93.25) holds gains, Evergrande will pay some local debt on Thursday, but major doubts remain. Strong Housing data helped USD. AUD recovers lifting NZD, JPY slips post BOJ. CAD holds gains. $3.5bln infra. bill goes to Senate, Biden doubles climate crisis investment.
  • Yields moved two ticks higher (10yr closed at 1.32%) trade at 1.33% now.
  • Equities remain weak, Evergrande worries persist. (USA500 -3 (-0.08%) at 4354. USA500.F flat at 4358. No Tuesday turnaround. ; Dow -0.15%, Nasdaq +0.22%. Nikkei & China down VIX cools to 23.42.
  • USOil continues to recover broke $71.00 earlier – inventories to come later today.
  • Gold also recovers to $1780 but remains shy of key resistance at $1788.
Overnight – BOJ – no change – if anything a more Dovish outlook ” economy picking up as a trend, although it remained in a severe state due to the impact of the pandemic.” No sign of tapering any time soon. AUD back to 0.7250, AUDJPY up to 79.50. Evergrande will only pay local bond holders tomorrow but that was enough to ease concerns, at least for now. PBOC injected more funds into the local credit market. FT report there are enough empty apartments (new & unsold) in China to house 90 million people (30 million Chinese families) …-FT

European Open
– December 10-yr Bund future down -22 ticks, underperforming versus Treasury futures. In FX markets both EUR & GBP corrected against USD, leaving EURUSD at 1.1718 & Cable at 1.3647. USDJPY recovered to 109.56 from 109.10 pre-BOJ. Risks from China & realization global supply chains will take longer to recover from Covid disruptions (BBG report chip shortage getting worse, lead time now 21 weeks, Honda in Japan working at 40% of capacity for 2 mths) have seen investors scaling back tapering concerns & we expect Fed to stick with a cautious wait and see stance for now, which should help keep stock markets underpinned.

Today – US Existing Home Sales, FOMC rate decision & Chair Powell press conference, more new supply from UK & Germany.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.65%) The oscillations continue capped at 86.00 and back to 85.00 yesterday trades at 85.75 now. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line and histogram below 0 line but rallying. RSI 61 and rising. H1 ATR 0.150, Daily ATR 0.695.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,119
2
74
Date : 1st October 2021.

Market Update – September 30 – Inflation remains a major issue!



Market News

  • Global central bank officials stuck to cautious optimism at the ECB conference on central banking and data releases overnight were mixed. – Lagarde stressed the “reopening of the economy”.
  • Traders are still cautious, while keeping a wary eye on US budget talks, as a deadline to keep running is approaching amid last minute political wrangling in Washington.
  • China PMI readings mixed – manufacturing PMI unexpected signalled contraction, while the Caixin PMI came in stronger. Japan production as well as retail sales disappointed, while Australia building permits jumped. UK GDP revised sharply higher in the final reading.
  • Yields steadied (US 10-year rate stymied the drop in rates at 1.51%).
  • Equities supported by the drop in Treasury yields which enticed buyers back into equities, especially with beliefs the recent declines were overdone. JPN225 down -0.1%, USA500 outperforming at 4398, USA100 slipped -0.24%.
  • USOil steadied at the mid of $74 mark.
  • “A combination of higher US yields, impending Fed tapering and skittish markets around the debt ceiling have fuelled this move (in the dollar),” as Westpac analysts wrote.
  • FX markets – Strong USD, while GBP and EUR selling off sharply yesterday USDJPY – 112.00, Cable 1.3409, EURUSD 1.1588.
Today – Today’s data calendar is pretty busy and includes German labour market data and the preliminary inflation report for Germany, but key will be the US GDP and PCE number.



Biggest mover as of 07:45 GMT – USDJPY (+0.48%) Reached 112 for the first time since January 2020. Even though the overall outlook turned positive, intraday consolidation prevails as fast MAs flattened along with RSI and a bearish crossed formed by Stochastic. MACD lines however sustains positive bias. ATR (H1) at 0.085 and ATR (D) at 0.583.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,119
2
74
Date : 7th October 2021.

Market Update – October 7 – Stocks Recover, USD Holds, Oil dips.



  • USD (USDIndex 94.25) holds at highs, Stocks recover and ADP beat as debt ceiling is likely to be extended to December. Biden & Xi to hold summit before year end, Oil dipped after surprise build in inventories.
  • Yields eased a tad (10yr closed 1.5240%) now at 1.54% in Asian trades – Yields very much “on notice” following RBNZ. (30-yr at 2.14%). China remains closed. Evergrande news – investor to go private , clock ticking.
  • Equities moved higher into close. USA500 +17.0 (+0.41%) at 4363 (but remains weak) USA500.F higher for 3rd day 4375. Asian equities mixed. VIX closed at 21.20 – trades lower at 20.87 now.
  • USOil down from record highs $78.95 to $76.50 as inventories surprisingly rose by 2.3 million barrels.
  • Gold slips on higher yields down to $1745 now back to $1760; 20-day MA $1765.
  • FX markets USD bidEURUSD 1.1565 from 1.1525, Cable holds 1.3600, & USDJPY higher again at 111.35 from 111.85 yesterday.
European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -14 ticks, US futures are also lower. There was also some relief on the energy crunch in Europe and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains of more than 1%, outperforming versus US futures, which are also moving higher though, led by a 0.6% rise in the NASDAQ as tech-stocks are back in demand.

Today – US Weekly Claims, Challenger Job Cuts, ECB Mins & BOC’s Macklem, Fed’s Wiliams.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.33%) Rallied from 0.7225 lows yesterday to test 0.7300 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram trending higher & over 0 line, RSI 63 & moving higher. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0068.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,119
2
74
Date : 14th October 2021.

Market Update – October 14.



  • Traders continue to mull recovery hopes and central bank policies, after the Fed minutes yesterday signaled tapering could start as early as November.
  • The market is starting to price in a Fed rate liftoff into September 2022 from December previously.
  • BoE officials no longer seem concerned that the spike in inflation will be temporary and markets are concerned that an early move would stifle a still fragile recovery, especially as Brexit Britain is facing severe delivery problems and shortages of staff in key areas that could have longer lasting economic consequences.
  • Yields: US Treasury yield has lifted 1.6 bp to 1.55%. A stellar, record-setting 30-year bond reopening evinced continued strong demand for yields.
  • China: Record high PPI number & a slight drop in headline CPI readings.
  • Equities up. JPN225 managed a 1.4% gain. GER30 and UK100 futures are still up 0.4% and 0.5% respectively and US futures are also higher, led by a 0.5% rise in the USA100, which already outperformed yesterday.
  • Earnings season got off to a very strong start after a big beat by JPMorgan.
  • Oil lifted above $81.00.
  • FX markets – USD dropped, Yen corrected.
  • EURUSD is eyeing the 1.1400 mark, Cablerebounds to 1.3668, USDJPY 113.30–113.60.
  • TRYslumps over Central banks shuffle – USDTRY at 18. Erdogan dismissed three central bank monetary policy committee members and named replacements.
European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -10 ticks and US futures are also lower, while in cash markets the US Treasury yield has lifted 1.6 bp to 1.55%. EGBs rallied yesterday, led by Gilts, although yields closed up from session lows yesterday, as the move was mainly fueled by stagflation concerns with money markets increasingly pricing in an early liftoff on rates, especially in the UK.

Today – Today’s data calendar includes US PPI and US jobless claims.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.70%) Breached 79.45. Currently faster MAs keep pointing up, MACD signal line is at 0 & histogram trending higher. RSI 73 and sloping up, all indicating further upwards move. H1 ATR 0.107, Daily ATR 0.748.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.