Daily Market Analysis from Hotforex Broker

[HFM]

Date : 2nd March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Long yields are mixed in Asia. 10-year JGBs trailed Treasuries and sold off, with the yield up 0.8 bp at 0.055%, while the 10-year Treasury yields jumped 2 bp to 2.83%. Yields headed south in Australia and New Zealand. The global stock market sell off meanwhile continued in Asia overnight, Nikkei and Topix lost 2.5% and 1.8% respectively, undermined by U.S. President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs in imported steel and aluminium, which together with a stronger yen weighed on exporters. The rise in long yields moved amid a drop in the jobless rate and a rise in Tokyo inflation added to pressure. U.S. futures are starting to stabilise, however, oil prices remain under pressure, with the front end Nymex future trading at USD 60.92 per barrel. In Europe,the 10-year Bund yield is down -2.1 bp at 0.616% as of 7:25GMT, extending opening losses after weaker than expected German retail sales and a dip in import price inflation at the start of the session. European stock futures are deeply in the red, after a sell off in Asia overnight. The local calendar still has the U.K. CIPS construction PMI as well as Eurozone producer price inflation.

Fed Chairman Powell had been largely bullish, Fed’s Dudley later seemed at ease with 4 hikes and that didn’t help along with the tariff/trade concerns. Powell’s testimony included a lot of discussion was on the labor market, wages, and inflation. He did note at Tuesday’s hearing that there was still some slack in the system, but was the markets instead focused on his comments about keeping a gradual tightening posture in place to prevent the economy from “overheating,” as well as on his optimism on growth following tax legislation. He stressed several times that wage inflation isn’t at a point of acceleration and isn’t expected to push up inflation. He does expect wages and prices to be moving up, but he didn’t suggest inflation is on the brink or a breakout. The PCE deflator data supports that conclusion. It’s still the case the Fed will increase the funds rate another 25 bps at the end of the month.

Charts of the Day


Main Macro Events Today

• UK Prime Minister May Speech

• UK Construction PMI – the construction PMI expected to come in at 50.5 from 50.2, which would affirm a sector barely limping along.

• BOE Gov Carney Speaks in London, for the evolution of money and the emergence of Crypto-currencies.
• Canadian GDP – December GDP is seen flat (0.0%) after the 0.4% jump in November. The separate GDP report is projected to reveal a 2.0% real growth pace (q/q, saar) following the 1.7% growth rate in Q3.

• US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment – Final Michigan sentiment for February may tick up to 99.5 from 99.9 prelim.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 5th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th March 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week

The financial markets are always subject to risks, be they interest rate, credit, currency, monetary, or geopolitical — but it’s the sensitivity to the uncertainties that waxes and wanes. Last year was a virtual one-way trip higher for global equities as many possible hazards were ignored amid bullish momentum and surging optimism. But that tone has given way to a much more nervous and volatile climate, especially as key central banks are discussing, or are in the process of, exiting QE, while political headwinds abound.

The markets will open Monday with ongoing focus on President Trump’s decision to impose import tariffs on steel (25%) and aluminium (10%), with details and implementation expected this week.The tariff news also took central banks off the front page for a time. But worries over the changing dynamic to less stimulative postures will again be at the forefront with policy meetings this week from the BoJ and ECB, and the key U.S. nonfarm payroll report on tap, which will be a guide for the March 20, 21 FOMC.

United States: U.S. markets have a lot on their plate this week. Much of the early focus will be on any details of the import tariffs President Trump plans to impose. Though the direct effects on the U.S. would be limited, the bigger consequence would be from global repercussions and any retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, data and Fedspeak will be scrutinized this week ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting, as they could factor into outlooks on the Fed’s economic projections to be released then, along with the dot plot for 2018 and 2019, after Chairman Powell’s upbeat assessment of the economy and his confidence in rising inflation in his Monetary Policy Report boosted expectations for a shift from 3 to 4 tightenings this year. The February employment report (Friday)tops the data calendar this week. Remember it was the acceleration in average hourly earnings to a 2.9% y/y in the January, the strongest since 2009, that was a catalyst for much of the bond selloff which pushed the 10-year yield over the 2.90% mark, a four year high. That statistic, along with the payroll gain, will be the scrutinized. Other important data this week includes the ISM nonmanufacturing report, along with January trade and revised Q4 productivity. The January trade deficit (Wednesday) should post its 5th consecutive month of widening, to -$55.3 bln From December’s -$53.1 bln, amid declines in imports and exports. Q4 Productivity in Q4 (Wednesday)should be unrevised at -0.1% (, after firming to 2.7% from Q2’s 1.5% in the Advance numbers. Other reports on the week include the February ADP private payroll survey, the precursor to the BLS jobs report, along with January factory orders and wholesale trade.

Canada:It promises to be a busy week in Canada for both data and events. The main event is the BoC’s rate announcement (Wednesday), which is expected to result in no change to the current 1.25% rate setting. Uncertainties remain elevated, especially after the proposed steel and aluminum tariffs from President Trump raised the specter of a trade war while lending a bit of pessimism to the ongoing NAFTA talks. The economic data slate is highlighted by employment (Friday), projected to show a 25.0k gain in February after the 88.0k tumble in January. The January trade deficit (Wednesday) is seen narrowing to -C$3.0 bln from -C$3.2 bln in December. Productivity (Wednesday) is expected to edge 0.1% higher in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 0.6% drop in Q3. Housing starts (Thursday) are seen edging lower to a 215.0k pace in February from 216.2k in January. Building permits (Thursday) are anticipated to slip 1.0% in January after the 4.8% gain in values during December.

Europe: The focus this week is on the ECB meeting on Thursday and given the weak round of confidence and inflation data coupled with ongoing market volatility, only minor tweaks to the guidance are expected, with the cautious camp still in the majority and even previously hawkish members like Coeure apparently concerned by recent market moves. The hawks meanwhile can take solace in the fact that even after the recent dip in yields, they are still considerably higher than back in December. The current QE schedule is set to run until the end of September and there is no need for the central bank to commit to an end date for QE before June at the earliest, more likely July, although if the hawks become too insistent Draghi could take out the reference to the possibility of a renewed increase in size – i.e. monthly purchase volumes, something that at this juncture, nobody expects anyway.

With February confidence data as well as preliminary inflation out of the way the calendar calms down this week. The Eurozone has the 3rd releases of Q4 GDP, which is expected to confirm the quarterly growth rate at 0.6% q/q , leaving the annual rate at 2.7% y/y and the focus on the full breakdown, which will be published for the first time. German manufacturing orders are likely to attract more attention and should support the doves at the ECB, as we are looking for a correction of -1.5 m/m in January , after the surprising December jump of 3.8% m/m. German industrial production for January, meanwhile, is seen rising 0.2% m/m, after a dip of -0.6% m/m in December.The calendar also has Eurozone retail sales as well as German trade data, and French industrial production numbers for January. Supply comes from Germany, which auctions 5-year Bobls on Wednesday.

UK: The calendar this week brings the February Markit services PMI (Monday), the February BRC retail sales report (Tuesday), and January industrial production and trade figures (Friday). The pound under-performed last week, losing an average 1.3% versus dollar, euro and yen. Brexit related news has been think in the news the British government hurries to come up with a clear negotiating position ahead of the March 22 EU leader’s summit. Prime Minister May gave a keynote speech last Friday, which is one of a series of speeches by herself and senior cabinet members laying out what the government hopes to achieve with the EU in a future trade agreement, including ideas on how to accommodate deep-seated Irish concerns about the post-Brexit border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. It remains uncertain, if not unlikely, that the EU will agree to May’s idea for a new customs partnership and the bespoke sector-by-sector deals that she is looking for. EU officials have repeatedly and consistently stated that there can be no “cherry picking,” so there remain a lot of known unknowns as to how Brexit will unfold. May’s speech was notable for the fact that she finally admitted that the UK will have less access to the single market, implying that a “soft” Norway or Swiss-like deal is off the cards. The pound has continued to trade at about an average discount of between about 12% and 15% versus levels seen ahead of the vote to leave the EU in 2016.

Japan: the markets will await the BoJ meeting (Thursday, Friday) for any fresh insights on QE after Governor Kuroda told parliament last week he could see ending stimulus in fiscal 2019. Meanwhile, the second release of Q4 GDP (Thursday) should see an upward revision to a 1.1% q/q annualized growth rate from the 0.5% pace in the Advance release. February bank loans (Thursday) are expected to accelerate slightly to a 2.5% y/y rate from 2.4%. January personal income and PCE (Friday), should see the latter down 0.5% y/y from -0.1% previously.

China: the National People’s Congress kicks off its two-week meeting on Monday and will be monitored closely for new developments and especially in the wake of possible U.S. tariffs. The February trade report (Thursday) should see the surplus widen to $25.0 bln from $20.3 bln. February CPI (Friday) is penciled in firming to a 2.1% y/y clip from 1.5%, with PPI seen slowing slightly to 4.0% y/y from 4.3%. There could be some distortions in all of the data from the week-long Lunar New Year holidays

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia (Tuesday) is expected to hold rates steady at the current 1.50% setting. The Q4 current account (Tuesday) is seen widening to a -A$11.0 bln deficit from -A$9.1 bln in Q3. Retail sales (Tuesday) are projected to rise 0.5% in January after the 0.5% m/m drop in December. GDP (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.6% in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the matching 0.6% gain in Q3. The trade balance (Thursday) is anticipated to shift to a A$0.5 bln surplus in January from the -A$1.4 bln deficit in December. RBA Governor Lowe speaks (Wednesday) on “The Changing Nature of Investment” to the AFR Business Summit in Sydney.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 6th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is up 1.3 bp at 0.651% as of 7:20GMT, French 10-year yields are also up amid a wider rise in long yields, with 10-year JGBs up 0.046% and 10-year Treasury yields up 0.2 bp. Stock markets continued to bounce back in Asia as investor fears of a global trade war receded and the RBA left the cash rate unchanged and sounded slightly less optimistic on its growth projections. Italian 10-year yields are slightly down and below the 2% mark and it seems the messy Italian election result won’t lead to a wider crisis in Eurozone bond markets. Stocks meanwhile continue to recover and European stock futures are moving higher with U.S. futures after a positive session in Asia, where the Nikkei closed with a gain of 1.79%, ASX 200 rose 1.14% and the Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 2.26% and 1.21% respectively. Meanwhile, Oil prices are also higher with the front end WTI future trading at USD 62.68 per barrel. Trump said he’s not backing down on tariffs in the steel and aluminum sectors, though Mexico and Canada want to talk about them in the context of NAFTA. Trump suggested that if the U.S. can make a good deal on NAFTA, then the tariffs can be addressed for Canada and Mexico. He said the biggest problem on trade is China and he doesn’t think there will be a trade war inspired by the steel and aluminum tariffs.

FX Update: The dollar majors have been in consolidation mode. with EURUSD, USDJPY, Cable, AUDUSD, along with the main crosses, including EURJPY, GBPJPY and AUDCAD, trading at near net unchanged levels as the London interbank market takes to its collective desk. This has come amid a backdrop of recovering global stock markets. EURUSD has traded on either side of 1.2350, drifting lower in the latest phase, to around 1.2335. The pair has held below the 13-day high seen yesterday at 1.2365. USDJPY settled lower, back around 105.20 after scaling to a three-session high in the wake of the Tokyo fixing. EURJPY and other yen crosses saw a similar price action, posting fresh highs before turning lower.

Charts of the Day


Main Macro Events Today

• Swiss CPI – expected to rise at 0.2% from decline seen on January.

• FOMC Member Dudley Speech – takes part in a round-table on the U.S. Virgin Islands recovery effort.

• Canadian Ivey PMI- Canada’s Ivey PMI expected to rise to 56.3 after falling to 55.2 in January on a seasonally adjusted basis from 60.4 in December. The Ivey remains consistent with an expanding economy.

• MPC Member Haldane and RBA Gov Lowe Speaks

Support and Resistance Levels


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 7th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: the 10-year Bund yield is down -1.3 bp at 0.655% in early trade, the 2-year down -1.4 bp at 0.58%. The correction comes amid a wider decline in long yields globally, led by Treasuries. European stock futures are heading south in tandem with U.S. futures and after a sell off in equities during the Asian session as concerns about a global trade war pick up again. S&P 500 futures are down over 1% on Cohn resignation, the head of the National Economic Council, and who had been key figure in Trump’s administration. Many White House watchers say Cohn his departure is over Trump’s sudden push toward trade protectionism. The news broke after the close of the regular session on Wall Street yesterday, and the losses in index futures foreshadow to a sharp decline at the open later today. The narrative is that Cohn’s departure effectively signals that the protectionist cohort of advisers in the administration, led by the head of the Office of Trade, Navarro, have won out, leaving the White House without a heavyweight advocate of globalization sentiment, suggesting that Trump will go the distance with his trade protectionist campaign pledge, risking a trade war that most economists, see as negative for the U.S. and global economies. Today’s calendar has the final reading of Eurozone Q4 GDP as well as U.K. house price data from the Halifa

FX Update: The yen has rallied on a safe haven bid following the resignation of Gary Cohn, the head of the National Economic Council, which many onlookers are taking as effectively signalling that the Trump administration will go the distance in trade protectionism. The biggest movers out of the main yen crosses have been CADJPY and AUDJPY, with the Canadian and Australian economies seen as being exposed to a global trade war. The confirmation hearings of the new BoJ deputy governors today produced more dovish rhetoric, with Amamiya, for instance, saying that it is “very regrettable” that inflation hasn’t hit target yet, though to little impact on the yen.

Charts of the Day


Main Macro Events Today

• Eurozone GDP – Q4 GDP is widely expected to be confirmed at 0.6% q/q, and 2.7% y/y, in line with the preliminary reading. This leaves the focus on the full breakdown, which will be released for the first time and is likely to show ongoing investment and a pick up in exports, with the latter helping to underpin growth at the end of last year.

• ADP Non-Farm Employment Change , Trade Balance – The January trade deficit should post its 5th consecutive month of widening, to -$54.1 bln from December’s -$53.1 bln, amid declines in imports and exports. Q4 Productivity in Q4 should be unrevised at -0.1%, while Unit labor costs are expected to be bumped up to 2.1%. Tthe February ADP private payroll survey, expected to reveal 195K jobs excluding the farming industry and government, from 234K last month.

• Canadian Trade Balance – The January trade deficit is seen narrowing to -C$2.5 bln from -C$3.2 bln in December. Productivity is expected to edge 0.1% higher in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 0.6% drop in Q3.

• BOC Rate Statement & Interest rate Decision – The main event is the BoC’s rate announcement , which is expected to result in no change to the current 1.25% rate setting. In January, strong recent data, an economy operating close to capacity and inflation close to target was cited alongside the decision to reduce accommodation. Economic data since the January announcement have been somewhat disappointing, with the 1.7% gain in Q4 GDP undershooting the BoC’s 2.5% estimateUncertainties remain elevated, especially after the proposed steel and aluminum tariffs from President Trump raised the specter of a trade war while lending a bit of pessimism to the ongoing NAFTA talks. The BoC will not hold a press conference, while the next MPR is in April, leaving a short and sweet announcement for the market to mull.

Support and Resistance Levels


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 8th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Concerns about a global trade war are receding and after European stocks bounced back during the PM session yesterday, Asian markets followed and rebounded from the lows of the previous session, despite a tepid close on Wall Street. Nikkei and Topix rose 0.54% and -.35% respectively, the ASX was up 0.69% at the close, Hang Seng and CSI 300 gained 1.40% and 0.76% so far. The slew of data releases helped to shrug off trade concerns. Japan GDP came in higher than expected and showed an annualised quarterly rate of 1.6%, versus Bloomberg expectations of 1.0%. Japan’s economy has grown for eight straight quarters, as global growth has underpinned export demand, supporting business investment and corporate profits. However, we have yet to see robust wage gains or consumer spending. Inflation has accelerated but remains well short of the BoJ’s 2% target. China’s trade surplus also came in better than expected, with exports growth accelerating sharply. The positive sentiment also seems to be spilling over with U.S. futures moving higher.

FX Update: USDJPY has remained within yesterday’s range so far in Asian trading today, posting a range so far of 105.92-106.20. Market participants are still fathoming Trump’s tariffs, which will reportedly be signed off on today, and become effective in two weeks time, but which will include temporary exceptions on Mexico and Canada (subject to how the Trump administration deems NAFTA negotiations go). Bitcoin has slumped 10.3% to the $9600 area compared to 24-hour highs of $10,911 and lows of $9,450, breaking back below $10k after a period of consolidation and recovery after its downdraft earlier in the year. Coincidentally, Bloomberg is reporting that the bankruptcy attorney, Nobuaki Kobayashi, for creditors of the failed Mt. Gox bitcoin exchange has sold some $400 mln in Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash since September and has another $1.9 bln to go. His aim is reportedly to get the highest price possible and has been averaging as sale price of $10,015. That’s certainly one whale of a headwind for gains from here, along with SEC crackdown on rogue digital exchanges and other potential regulation.

Charts of the Day


Main Macro Events Today

• ECB Rates Decision – The ECB is widely expected to keep rates unchanged and confirm the current QE schedule that runs until the end of September, leaving the focus on the forward guidance. ECB officials are increasingly split on the question of the guidance on the QE program, with a growing number of council members arguing for a commitment to an end date for net asset purchases as the economy strengthens. Data since the last meeting backed the dovish camp as are political headwinds with trade war fears and Brexit still hanging over markets and underpinning volatility. The Italian election had only temporary impact, however, and Germany’s Merkel was finally confirmed as Chancellor so the hawks also have something to argue with.

• Canadian Building Permits & NHPI – Housing starts are seen edging lower to a 216.6k pace in February from 216.2k in January. Building permits are anticipated to slip 1.0% in January after the 4.8% gain in values during December.

• ECB Press Conference –

• BOC Gov Poloz and Gov council Member Lane Speeches

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 9th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Stock markets rose in Asia, amid news that President Trump agreed to an unprecedented summit with North Korea’s leader, thus easing concerns of an escalation of tensions. Nikkei and Topix closed with gains of 0.32% and 0.47% respectively, Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently up 1.07% and 0.79%. U.S. stock futures are narrowly mixed, however, so far not suggesting that the news will light a fireworks on U.S. markets. Long bond yields are mixed. 10-year JGB’s came down from earlier highs and is now down -0.2 bp on the day at 0.040%, as the BoJ remained on hold as expected. 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.3 bp. Oil prices are also higher and the front end Nymex future trading at USD 60.23 per barrel. Gold prices are heading for a third weekly drop amid easing geopolitical tensions higher.

FX Update: The yen weakened on political news, specifically Trump’s agreeing to Kim Jong Un’s request for a meeting and a declaration from North Korea that it is suspending ICBM testing, which was tonic for stock markets in Asia. The BoJ left policy settings unchanged, and left its outlook unaltered (the statement noting that the economy is “expanding moderately”), as expected. BoJ Governor Kuroda will be holding a press conference shortly, where he is likely to maintain that an exit from stimulus remains in the distance. USDJPY rallied to an eight-day high of 106.94, up over 60 pips from yesterday’s New York closing level. BoJ Governor Kuroda stuck to a dovish script at his post-meeting press conference, saying that further easing measures must be considered in the event that momentum towards achieving the 2% inflation target wanes and that there are presently no plans to exit from stimulative policy settings. He also stressed that the BoJ will “patiently continue with aggressive stimulus.” He said that stimulus could be taken away before the inflation target is seem, but weakened this verbalization by adding “in theory.” The BoJ earlier announced unchanged policy. Japan’s economy is amid its longest growth phase in decades, but inflation has remained chronically anem

Charts of the Day


Main Macro Events Today

• UK Industrial Production – January industrial output to rise 1.5% m/m rebounding from the -1.3% figure seen in December

• Canadian Employment Change & Unemployment Rate – projected to show a 20.0k gain in February after the 88.0k tumble in January. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 5.9%

• US Non-Farm Payrolls – February nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 205k from 200K last month.

• US Unemployment Rate – The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady from a 4.1% rate since October.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 12th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th March 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week
U.S. imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs caused consternation and hand wringing for much of last week. But, news of an agreement to meet between the leaders of the U.S. and North Korea, possible carve-outs on the tariffs, and the a stellar U.S. jobs report helped revive global equities, even as bond yields resumed their rise too. Meanwhile the threat of another government shutdown could put a wrinkle into trading The continuing resolution passed in early February that kept the government open expires on March 23.

United States: The U.S. economic calendar will be slow to warm up, but will end the week with a crescendo. None of the reports will change the immediate Fed outlook, however, where a March hike is basically a done deal. The Treasury budget gap (Monday) set to widen to -$216 bln for February from the -$192 bln year-ago gap. The likely culprits are a pick up in refunds and a small decline in withheld receipts, in large part due to the tax law changes. CPI (Monday) could be the most important statistic of the week since it’s crucial to the FOMC’s rate trajectory. MBA mortgage market applications are due (Wednesday) with the average 30-year mortgage rate topping 4.65% — the highest level in over 4-years — refis may continue to ebb. PPI (Wednesday) is forecast sinking 0.1% in February. with core seen rising 0.2%. Retail sales (Wednesday) are seen returning a healthy 0.5% or 0.6% ex-auto after sluggishness around the turn of the year. January business inventories (Wednesday) are expected to rise 0.6% from 0.5%.

Data gears back up (Thursday) with Empire State seen rising to 16.0 in March vs 13.1, while the Philly Fed index may slide to 21.0 in March from 25.8 and initial jobless claims may mean revert 8k lower to 223k for the March-10 week. Import prices are projected (Thursday) to gain 0.1% in February, while export prices rise 0.3%, down from 0.8% and the NAHB housing market index is also seen rising to 73 in March from 72. The back end of the week winds down with February housing starts (Friday) forecast to shrink 5% to a 1.26 mln pace (median 1.29 mln) from 1.326 mln in January. Industrial production should rise 0.2% in February from -0.1% (Friday), while capacity use increases to 77.6% from 77.5%. Preliminary Michigan sentiment may top 100.0 for March from 99.7 previously.

Canada: In Canada the data and events calendar shifts to the slow lane this week after the busy docket seen last week. Manufacturing shipments (Friday) are expected to fall 1.0% in January (m/m, sa) after the 0.3% dip in December. Q4 net worth (Thursday) will be closely watched, as the report contains the debt-to-disposable income ratio. The ratio saw a record high 171.1% in Q3, and could move even higher in Q4 to underpin the elevated degree of sensitivity household have to higher interest rates. The report should underpin the BoC’s go-slow approach to policy normalization. February existing home sales are due Thursday. The ADP jobs tally for February is also due Thursday. The Teranet/National Bank HPI for February is scheduled for Wednesday. International securities transactions for January are out Friday.

Europe: With the ECB meeting out of the way, and a lull in data releases, this should be a relatively quiet week that will give markets and investors time to settle down, digest the tweak in the ECB’s guidance on QE and watch geopolitical events unfold. The dovish leaning triumvirate – Draghi, Constancio and Praet is scheduled to speak on Wednesday and will have further opportunity to play down the importance of the change in guidance that took out the option to lift monthly purchase levels, while keeping the possibility of a program extension in place. The tweak in the statement merely had a signaling character and confirmed that the central bank is inching toward an exit from net asset purchases at a snail’s pace. The data calendar focuses mainly on final February inflation numbers, which are unlikely to bring major surprises. The Spanish reading expected (Tuesday) to be confirmed at 1.2% y/y, German HICP (Wednesday) also at 1.2% y/y, the French (Wednesday) at 1.3% y/y, the Italian CPI (Friday) at just 0.7% y/y, leaving the overall Eurozone CPI (Friday) also at 1.2 %y/y.

UK: The calendar this week is devoid of top-tier data. The next release of note is the inflation data on March 20th. Brexit-related noise will continue to spout forth, though is likely to remain too inconclusive to impart much directional bias on sterling. The ECB is in the process of formalizing a response to the laid-out UK position on Brexit. The next key juncture is the EU leaders’ summit on March 22nd, and following that, the two sides will look to hammer out a concrete agreement (on a future trading relationship, the Irish border and a transition period) before October this year, which would leave the 27 EU countries time to ratify it before March 29th next year, when the UK formally leaves the EU and, most likely, when a two-year transition period starts before the UK will fully break free of the single market, customs union, and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. It’s more than probable that a new trade deal will need much more time to be agreed on (the Canadian-EU trade deal was seven years in the making).

Japan: the March MoF business outlook survey (Monday) is seen improving 7 from 6.2 in February. But, February PPI (Tuesday) should dip to a 2.6% y/y pace from January’s 2.7%. The January tertiary industry index (Tuesday) is penciled in falling another, the same decline that was registered in December. January core machine orders (Wednesday) are forecast rebounding 6.0% m/m from -11.9% in December. Revised January industrial production will be released on Friday.

China: February industrial production and retail sales (Wednesday) will be important for the overall growth outlook. The former is estimated holding at the 6.2% y/y pace previously registered. February retail sales are seen slowing marginally to a 9.3% y/y rate from 9.4% in December. Note the data jump from December to February as there were no January reports due to the Lunar New Year holidays. February fixed investment (Wednesday) is seen little changed at 7.1% y/y from 7.2% in January.

Australia: a trifecta of Reserve Bank of Australia speeches highlight the week. Assistant Governor (Financial System) Michele Bullock speaks (Tuesday) at the Seamless Australia Payments Conference. Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Christopher Kent addresses the Kanga News DCM Summit (Wednesday). Deputy Governor Guy Debelle speaks (Friday) at the Financial Risk Day in Sydney. The data calendar has housing finance (Tuesday), seen slipping 0.5% in January after the 2.3% drop in December.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 13th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is down -0.3 bp in early trade at 0.624%, the 2-year is down -0.2 bp at -0.590%. Peripherals are outperforming at the long end, but the picture is more mixed in the 2-year area. Eurozone stock futures are moving higher, in tandem with U.S. futures, UK100 futures are in the red, after a mixed session in Asia. Data releases remain thin on the ground and investors are looking to US inflation data for guidance on the pace of Fed tightening. In Europe, Brexit speculation ahead of the March 22-23 summit, ECB speak and the SNB’s policy review remain in focus.

FX Update:The yen back out of early-Tokyo highs and is showing an average 0.4% decline versus the dollar and euro heading into the London interbank open. USDJPY logging a high of 106.90 after posting a three-session low at 106.25. EURJPY also lifted out of a two-session low to make a two-session high of 131.77. AUDJPY and other yen crosses saw a similar price action. The dollar, meanwhile, traded with a steady-to-firmer tilt with markets eyeing today’s release of the U.S. CPI, a data series that has been having a relatively heightened influence on markets as the participants look to fine tune their Fed policy expectation. EURUSD has ebbed to the 1.2325 area, moderately lower from a 1.2345 two-session high that was seen in early Tokyo. As for the yen’s weakness, this has come despite a flagging bullish sentiment in global equity market, though in the bigger view the Japanese currency yen has been trading in a relatively narrow sideways pattern over the last week, and USDJPY is near to the midway point of the range that’s been seen over the last month. Japan’s finance minister Aso is likely to skip next week’s G20 meeting due to the alleged embroilment of the Ministry of Finance with a state land sale scandal. In data, Japan’s tertiary index contracted by 0.6 % m/m, worse than the -0.3% median forecast.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

• 
  
  
  • UK Budget Report

• 
  
  
  • US CPI and Core CPI – It is set to increase by just 0.1% for both headline and core, which should keep the core y/y pace unchanged at 1.8%.

• 
  
  
  • BOC Gov Poloz Speech – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks on “Today’s labor market and the future of work.” The text of his prepared speech is available 10:15 ET on Tuesday.

• 
  
  
  • RBA Assist Gov Kent Speech

Support and Resistance Levels


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 14th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th March 2018.

European Fixed Income Outlook: Long yields traded mostly steady to lower as stock markets headed south. 10-year JGB yields are unchanged at 0.043%, the Chinese 10-year underperformed and yields are up 0.9 bp, but the 10-year Treasury yield is down -1.3 bp at 2.839%. A fresh shakeup in the Trump administration rekindled trade war concerns and worries about geopolitical risks and weighed on stock markets, which headed broadly south in Asia, after already retreating on Wall Street and in Europe yesterday. The Topix closed with a loss of -0.45%, the Nikkei was down -0.87% at the close, Hang Seng and CSI 300 are down -1.32% and -0.225 respectively and the ASX 200 lost -0.66%. U.S. stock futures are also heading south and oil prices are little changed at USD 60.69 per barrel. In Europe today, German Feb HICP inflation confirmed at 1.2% y/y as expected, with prices up 0.4% m/m. The breakdown confirmed that the dip from 1.4% y/y in January was mainly due to lower energy and food price inflation. This ties in with the steady core inflation reading in the preliminary Eurozone HICP rate and backs views that despite these monthly variations inflation is continuing to trend higher, especially with wage deals looking quite strong in Germany.

FX Update:: USDJPY has remained heavy, settling around 106.50 after a short-lived lift to an intraday high at 106.74 ahead of the Tokyo fixing earlier. Broader dollar softness is at play, with market narratives pointing to political uncertainty following Trump’s dual sackings of his foreign secretary, Tillerson, and an aide, John McEntee — the latter over alleged “serious financial crimes.” The yen has been trading mixed in narrow ranges versus other currencies. BoJ Governor Kuroda maintained his recent re-commitment to a dovish script, saying earlier that a withdrawal from stimulus is not being considered as the 2% inflation target remains far from being achieved. The BoJ released the minutes from the January policy meeting, though to little market impact given their rear view nature (given that the central bank releases a summary sheet a week after policy meetings, and given the timeliness of recent BoJ member testimonies and communications). In data, Japan’s core machinery orders rebound by 8.2% m/m in January after a 9.3% contraction in the month prior. The data is volatile month-to-month and tends not to carry much market-impacting potential, as proved the case today.

Charts of the Day


Main Macro Events Today

• ECB President Draghi Speech – Due to speak at the ECB conference hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, in Frankfurt.

• ECB’s Praet and Constancio Speeches – Constancio and Praet is scheduled will have further opportunity to play down the importance of the change in guidance that took out the option to lift monthly purchase levels, while keeping the possibility of a program extension in place.

• US PPI and Retail Sales – PPI is forecast sinking 0.1% in February, with core seen rising 0.2%. Here though, the 12-month pace should pick up to 2.5% y/y from 2.2%. While not as important as the consumer price data, it could raise eyebrows. Retail sales are seen returning a healthy 0.3% or 0.4% ex-auto after sluggishness around the turn of the year.

• Crude Oil Inventories

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 15th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are marginally higher in opening trade, European stock futures are mostly higher, in tandem with U.S. futures and after a cautiously positive session in Japan. Concerns about the risk of an escalating trade war continue to linger, but markets are taking time for a breather and assess the situation after the latest reshuffle in the U.S. administration. Investors evaluate the impact of the latest reshuffle of the U.S. administration that saw free-trader Larry Kudlow accepting the NEC directorship in a move that counterbalanced some of the latest rhetoric on tariffs. Volatility is likely to remain elevated amid growing uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy amid risks to trade. Against that background, central banks are pledging caution and gradualism and the SNB is unlikely to rock the boat today and expected to keep policy settings on hold. the European calendar is pretty quiet otherwise, with only final inflation readings from Italy and France.

FX Update: The dollar has traded mixed to far today, losing ground to the yen but moderately gaining versus most of the other main currencies, including the euro, sterling and Australian dollar. The biggest loser was the Kiwi dollar following an underwhelming GDP figure out of New Zealand, with the antipodean currency showing a decline of 0.3% heading into the London interbank open, although off its lows. USDJPY fell to a six-session low of 105.78, while EURJPY, AUDJPY, and other yen crosses, also declined, though the downside progress was crimped as Asia stock markets lifted out of intraday lows, and the principal U.S. and European equity indexes posted gains. The Nikkei closed with a fractional 0.12% gain. BoJ Governor Kuroda was again talking up prevailing monetary stimulus, arguing it is helping improve the productivity in the non-manufacturing parts of the economy, which he said is essential for Japan’s economic outlook, and that the BoJ will continue with “powerful” monetary easing. How Trump’s trade was evolves will remain a principal focus for market participants.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

• SNB Monetary Policy Assessment – SNB expected to keep monetary policy settings on hold, highlight uncertainty.

• US Data – Empire State – seen rising to 15.0 in March vs 13.1, while the Philly Fed index may slide to 23.0 in March from 25.8 and initial jobless claims may mean revert 5k lower to 226k for the March-10 week. Import prices are projected to gain 0.3% in February, while export pricesrise 0.3%, down from 0.8% and the NAHB housing market index is also seen rising to 73 in March from 72.

• ECB’s Lautenschläger Speech

Support and Resistance levels


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 16th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The Eurex trading system is experiencing serious issues according to their website and quotes are missing, but French 10-year yields are down -0.4 bp at 0.814%, French and Spanish stock futures are down, in tandem with UK100 futures after a weak session in Asia. Risk appetite has taken another hit as investors eye wearily the succession of personnel changes in Washington and Trump’s tariff plans, with fears of a global trade war intensifying. Geopolitics will likely to continue to trump data today with only final Eurozone inflation data of note in the European calendar.

FX Update: The yen has maintained a firming bias amid a mixture of geopolitical news and fresh drama at the White House in the U.S.. USDJPY dipped back under 106.00, while EURJPY and other yen cross have also been trading with a heavy tone. News that Trump has removed his national security advisor, H.R. McMaster has been a worry for some on the view that it might mean Trump will become more hawkish on foreign policy. Some market narratives also pin some of the yen’s gains on news that U.S. special council Mueller has subpoenaed the Trump Organisation for business, some of which are related to Russia. This backdrop has fed a mixed path in global equity markets. Investors are additionally trying to fathom the risk of a Trumpian trade war, how extensive it might and what consequences it might have on global growth. The joint response to Russia by key NATO allies following the attempted hit on an ex Russian double agent is also in the mix. The greater risks is seen for USDJPY declining to 100.00 than climbing to 110.00. Elsewhere, EURUSD recouped above 1.2300 after dipping yesterday to a four-day low at 1.2295. AUDUSD hit a 10-day low at 0.7770 before recouping to 0.7800

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• EU Labour cost

• EU CPI – February HICP inflation is expected to be confirmed at just 1.2% y/y down from 1.3% y/y in January. The breakdown is likely to confirm that the dip in the headline rate was mainly due to base effects from energy and in particular food prices and that core inflation actually held steady. Even the doves at the council are now more confident that underlying inflation is picking up. Indeed, across Europe central banks are turning the focus away from headline inflation to closing output gaps, and if uncertainty about global developments prevents companies from investing into expanding production capacity the ECB will remain on course to take out stimulus even if growth slows down.

• US Industian Production, Housing Starts & Consumer Sentiment – The back end of the week winds down with February housing starts forecast to shrink 5% to a 1.29 mln pace from 1.326 mln in January. Industrial production should rise 0.3% in February from -0.1%, while capacity use increases to 77.6% from 77.5%. Preliminary Michigan sentiment may top 99.5 for March from 99.7 previously.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 19th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th March 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week
It’s been a tense and contentious March for the markets, as economic and political uncertainties play tug-o-war with prices. Signs of rising global growth, but still tame inflation, are helping underpin confidence, though worries over U.S. tariffs and fears of a deleterious trade war, along with concerns over a more hawkish FOMC stance, have left equities heavy on the month, while longer dated bond yields are mostly lower.

United States: U.S. markets will focus on the FOMC meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday), Chairman Powell’s debut. There shouldn’t be any surprise with respect to the rate decision. A 25 bp tightening in the funds rate band to 1.50% to 1.75% is as sure a bet as there can be. Meanwhile, the potential for another government shutdown looms on Friday as the House and Senate debate a spending bill. Fedspeak will mostly be crowded out by the FOMC meeting and the accompanying blackout period.

Data is on the thin side. Housing and manufacturing reports dominate the light calendar. February existing home sales (Wednesday) are expected to rebound 1.9% to a 5.480 mln pace, recovering somewhat from the 3.2% January drop to 5.380 mln and December’s 2.8% decline to 5.560 mln. Sales were as high as 5.720 mln in November, the highest in a decade. Risk is to the downside, however, giving lean inventories and rising mortgage rates. New home sales (Friday) are estimated increasing 2.9% to 0.610 mln in February, after dropping 7.8% to 0.593 mln. Risk is also to the downside here given weak secondary market measures. The January FHFA home price index is on tap (Thursday). Durable goods orders (Friday) for February are projected bouncing 1.5%, unwinding some of the 3.6% January drop. Other data this week includes the Q4 current account (Wednesday),the Markit manufacturing and services PMIs (Thursday), and February leading indicators (Thursday).

Canada: the week brings the final inputs to the January GDP projection and an appearance by a BoC official. January wholesale trade (Tuesday) is expected to rise 0.1% after the 0.5% decline in December. January retail sales (Friday) are seen rebounding 1.0% in January after the 0.8% drop in December. The ex-autos retail sales aggregate is projected to rise 0.8% after a 1.8% plunge. The CPI (Friday) is expected to grow 0.3% m/m in February after the 0.7% jump in January. A 1.8% y/y growth pace is projected for the CPI during February following the 1.7% y/y growth rate in January. Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins speaks (Thursday) at the Rotman School of Management in Toronto.

Europe: it’s a busy and important week for the Eurozone with an almost full round of confidence numbers taking center stage on the data front, while the European Council on March 22/23 is expected to set out the EU’s guidelines for the future relationship with the U.K., but also address Trump’s tariff plans. Confidence readings are expected to come down further, but will still remain at high levels, and are unlikely to deter the ECB from moving slowly but steadily toward the exit from its still very accommodative stance. Geopolitical risks could slow an already cautious move further, and on that front, the EU leader summit at the end of the week will be watched very carefully as the EU is expected to agree on draft guidelines for Brexit negotiations and both sides are hoped to finalize a transition agreement, while Trump’s tariffs plans are also on the agenda.

The highlights of the data calendar, meanwhile, are ZEW, PMI and Ifo readings, which expected to correct further from recent highs. German ZEW investor confidence (Tuesday) is the most forward looking, but also least reliable of the bunch. The March Eurozone manufacturing PMI (Thursday) is seen slipping back to 58.2 from 58.6 and the services reading to 56.0 from 56.2, which should leave the composite at 56.9, down from 57.1 in February, but still pointing to a healthy pace of expansion across both sectors. Similarly, the German Ifo (Thursday) is expected to correct to 114.9 in from 115.4, but taking a longer perspective that would still be a strong number. Indeed, with PMIs surveys showing for a while now that companies are running into capacity constraints, a slowdown in growth momentum is inevitable at some point, but does not necessarily mean that the ECB has to keep pumping cash into the economy.



UK: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee gathers for its March meeting (announcing Thursday). It is likely to be a non-event for markets following the February meeting and quarterly Inflation Report update, with the repo rate widely expected to be left unchanged at 0.50%, and with QE totals also more than likely to remained unaltered. Data this week includes February inflation data (Tuesday),monthly labor market figures (Wednesday), monthly government borrowing, the March CBI industrial trends survey (Wednesday) and official retail sales for February (Thursday).

Japan: The markets will be on holiday Wednesday for Vernal Equinox Day. The January all industry index (Thursday) should fall 1.5% m/m from the previous 0.5% increase, breaking a string of three monthly gains. A lot of the focus will be on the National February CPI numbers (Friday). CPI is penciled in at an unchanged 1.4% y/y pace overall, while the core should rise to 1.0% y/y from 0.9%.

Australia: the minutes to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s March meeting are due (Tuesday). The February employment report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 15.0k gain after the 16.0k rise in January. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 5.5%. The housing price index (Tuesday) is expected to contract 0.7% in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 0.2% dip in Q3. RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System) Bullock appears in a panel at the ASIC Annual Forum 2018 in Sydney.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 20th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The global stock market sell off that was led by tech stocks started to ease in Asia, although, Nikkei and Topix still closed with losses of -0.47% and -0.21% respectively and the ASX was down -0.39% at the close. Markets started to pare losses though in the later part of the session and Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up -0.04% and 0.02%. Long yields declined across Asia, but are mostly up from earlier lows and while the 10 year JGB yield is down -0.1 bp at 0.032%, the 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.7 bp at 2.863%. U.s. stock futures are also up from lows and Dow Jones mini and S&P mini are moving higher in tandem with the FTSE 100 future. Risks of growing protectionism and the Fed meeting continue to hang over markets, although it seems after the week session yesterday investors are taking a breather. Oil prices are also higher and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 62.57 per barrel. Fed and BoE meetings continue to hang over markets, but the calendar is also picking up today, with German ZEW investor confidence and U.K. inflation numbers both able to move markets.

FX Update: The yen has traded softer so far today. USD-JPY has lifted to a three-session high of 106.86, and EUR-JPY and other yen crosses have similarly lifted. Good yen selling was seen at the Tokyo fix (today is a “gotobi” day, date multiple of 5, which is netted out Japanese importers’ demand for foreign currencies), and the currency subsequently maintained a modest downside ebb. Asian stock markets have been mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei closing 0.6% for the worse, but Chinese indexes and U.S. equity futures managing gains. On the trade war front Chinese premier, Li, pledged that it will lower import tariffs and better protect intellectual property rights, and also noted that the WTO has already ruled against tariffs directed at itself. Japan’s trade minister said that there was a “high possibility” that Japan would be exempted from the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium. Bloomberg reported a Japanese MoF official complaining that recent yen movements have been too volatile and trading too strongly. Japanese data today included the March Tankan business survey, which fell 1.0% m/m for large manufacturers while rising 2.0% for services.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• UK CPI – headline CPI expected to ebb to 2.8% y/y from 3.0% , and core CPI to also decline by 0.2 of a percentage point, to 2.5%. A steadying in the pound’s trade-weighted value on the year-on-year comparison should have imparted an abatement in sterling-induced price pressures.

• German ZEW – is the most forward looking, but also least reliable of Eurozone confidence indicators. And with stock market sentiment remaining shaky amid concerns of a global trade war, a dip to 13.0 from 17.8 is expected.

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 21st March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Stock markets continued to stabilise during the Asian session. Japan was closed for a holiday, which meant thinner trade, but elsewhere energy related stocks helped markets to recover from the slump in tech stocks that hit global markets at the beginning of the week. Oil prices lifted to a high of USD 63.85 overnight, on news that the OPEC led alliance of oil producers accelerated plans to curb the worldwide supply glut. The ASX closed with a gain of 0.23% and the Hang Seng is up 0.61%, after a positive close on Wall Street, although, U.S. futures are struggling to move higher as the focus shifts to the Fed announcement and markets remain split on whether the Fed will lift its rate hike schedule for this year. The holiday in Japan meant Treasuries were not traded overnight and elsewhere long yields were mixed across Asia, with slightly lower 10-year rates in China and Australia, while New Zealand’s 10-year moved higher.

FX Update: The dollar majors have plied narrow ranges to far today. EURUSD lifted to the north of 1.2250 after logging a three-week low yesterday at 1.2239, which capped a recent down move driven by a widening in the U.S. Treasury over Bund yield spread. USDJPY has settled to a consolidation with a modest downward drift after a two-day run higher. The pair drifted back under 106.50 after yesterday printing a one-week high at 106.60. Japanese markets were closed today for a public holiday in Japan, exacerbating thin market conditions with many market participants sitting on their hands into the Fed policy announcement and SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) today. Market’s median expectation are forecasting a 25 bp rate hike, to boost the funds band to 1.50% to 1.75%. It is widely expected that the Committee will leave the dot plot medians at 3 hikes this year and next, though policymakers are likely to upgrade their forecasts on growth and lower their view on the unemployment rate. USDCAD dipped to a four-session low of 1.3010 on news of progress on the NAFTA front, with the U.S. dropping its contentious auto-content proposal.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• UK Labour Market Data- Labor data expected to show the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.4%, and with average earnings in the three-months to January to rise by 2.6% y/y

• Existing Home Sales – expected to rebound 1.9% to a 5.415 mln pace , recovering somewhat from the 3.2% January drop to 5.380 mln and December’s 2.8% decline to 5.560 mln.

• FOMC Statement and Funds Rate decision – A 25 bp tightening in the funds rate band to 1.50% to 1.75% is as sure a bet as there can be. But there’s considerable uncertainty over the trajectory of rate hikes and whether the FOMC will opt to maintain the outlook for 3 tightenings this year, or revise up to 4.

• FOMC Press Conference

• RBNZ Rate Statement – RBNZ expected to hold the policy rate steady at 1.75% and maintain that monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 22nd March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is down -1.5 bp at 0.572% in opening trade, following Treasury yields, which have lost a further -2.2 bp during the Asian session after already dipping in the wake of yesterday’s Fed announcement, with Powell’s lack of urgency on rates helping to counterbalance the steeper rate hike trajectory in the dot plots further out. European stock market futures are heading south, U.S. stock futures are now also in the red, as tariff threats and concern of an escalating trade war hang over markets as central banks advance towards less expansionary policies. The BoE is expected to keep policy settings unchanged today, but the guidance should keep a May rate hike in play. Data releases are expected to be bond friendly, with EMU PMIs and the German Ifo seen correcting further. The ECB’s economic bulletin and Eurozone current account data are also on the agenda.

FX Update: The dollar has come under pressure since the Fed’s policy announcement, with the central bank having been perceived as sticking to a gradualist approach to tightening following an expected 25 bp hike, even though growth forecasts were upwardly revised and the rate path steepened. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) extended to a fresh two-week low in pre-European trading in Asia, posting a low of 89.45. EURUSD rallied into eight-day high terrain above 1.2360, and USD-JPY logged a two-week low at 105.58. The Australian dollar’s gains versus its U.S. counterpart were constrained by a miss in Australian jobs data, which showed employment rising by 17.5k, below the median forecast for a 20.0k gain. AUDUSD pulled back under 0.7750 after earlier logging a six-day high at 0.7785.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• 
  
  
  • Eurozone PMI/Ifo Preview – The March Eurozone manufacturing PMI is seen slipping back to 58.2 from 58.6 and the services reading to 56.0 from 56.2, which should leave the composite at 56.9, down from 57.1 in February, but still pointing to a healthy pace of expansion across both sectors. Similarly, the German Ifo is expected to correct to 114.9 in from 115.4, but taking a longer perspective that would still be a strong number.

• 
  
  
  • UK Retail Sales – 0.3% m/m rise is anticipated after the 0.1% m/m growth in the month prior, though there is downside rise given snow-bound weather conditions during the month.

• 
  
  
  • BoE – After the excitement of the Fed meeting, the BoE announcement could well prove to be a non-event for markets following the February meeting and quarterly Inflation Report update, with the repo rate widely expected to be left unchanged at 0.50%, and with QE totals also more than likely to remained unaltered. February’s guidance, which has prepped markets for a possible hike in May (market odds having been running at about 80% for a 25 bp hike), is also likely to remain in play.

• 
  
  
  • US Jobless Claims – expected to fall 3k to 225k from 226k in the week-ended March 10.

Support and Resistance levels




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 23rd March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Bund futures continue to rally in opening trade, the 10-year yield is down -1.0 bp at 0.515%, amid a wider tumble in global yields as the stock market sell off intensifies. Curves flatten as the long end outperforms and investors see global central banks delaying the withdrawal of stimulus as the escalating trade war is threatening world growth. The EU got a temporary exemption from Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium, but Japan didn’t and China quickly retaliated with its own tariff plans for imports from the U.S. Asian stock markets posted 2-4.5% losses, European stock futures are also heading south in opening trade. The local data calendar is pretty empty today, leaving the focus on the EU summit, which was also set to discuss Trump’s tariff plans, but the main focus today is on the expected signing off on a U.K. transition deal and the guidelines for the EU’s negotiating position on a future trade deal with the U.K. Amid the threat of a global trade war, the pressure to at least minimise the disruption to trade across Europe is intensifying.

FX Update: Japan’s core CPI improved to a 1.0% y/y pace in February from the 0.9% rate of annual increase in January. Total CPI climbed to a 1.5% y/y clip from 1.4% in January. The core rate is the fastest pace since the 2.2% y/y gain in March of 2015, which gave way to -0.5% rates of decline from July to September of 2016. The BoJ’s target is a 2% core rate, so they are now half way there. However, the beating drums of global trade war threaten Japan’s export oriented growth engine, while the appreciating yen is a headwind to exports and inflation. The yen is holding just below 105.00 — it was as high as 114.09 in early November.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• 
  
  
  • US Durable Goods & New Home Sales – New home sales are estimated increasing 2.9% to 0.620 mln in February, after dropping 7.8% to 0.593 mln. Risk is also to the downside here given weak secondary market measures. Durable goods orders for February are projected bouncing 1.5%, unwinding some of the 3.6% January drop.

• 
  
  
  • CAD Retail Sales – January retail sales are seen rebounding 1.0% in January after the 0.8% drop in December. The ex-autos retail sales aggregate is projected to rise 0.8% after a 1.8% plunge.

• 
  
  
  • CAD CPI – expected to grow 0.3% m/m in February after the 0.7% jump in January. A 1.8% y/y growth pace is projected for the CPI during February following the 1.7% y/y growth rate in January.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 26th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th March 2018.

The pendulum has swung back wickedly to trade politics after President Trump announced tariffs on $50 bln in Chinese tech and telecom imports. In turn, the Chinese retaliated on $3 bln in largely agricultural items, but hinted at more to come, including mulling “all options” when asked about ongoing Treasury purchases. Perhaps once the full scope of our tangled economic relationship is laid bare, both sides will have a greater appreciation for its complexity and benefits, while addressing its evident shortcomings as well. Meanwhile, Trump also grudgingly signed off on a $1.3 tln budget deal, which boosted military spending among other things, but didn’t have everything on his wish list.

United States: The U.S. economic calendar will connect the dots the week after the Fed lifted theirs, starting with updates (Monday) on the Chicago Fed national activity index for February and the March Dallas Fed index. January Case Shiller home prices may slip (Tuesday) to 204.3 from 204.5, while consumer confidence is expected to hold up near 130.00 in March from 130.8 in February and the Richmond Fed index may sink to 20 in March from 28. MBA mortgage applications are due (Wednesday), followed by the advanced trade in goods deficit, seen narrowing to -$73.6 bln from -$75.3 bln. The third report on Q4 GDP may rise to 2.8% vs 2.5% (Wednesday), along with NAR pending home sales and EIA energy inventories. Initial jobless claims may dip 5k to 224k for the March 24 week (Thursday), with personal income forecast to rise 0.5% in February and spending seen +0.3% core PCE prices may remain at a lowly 1.5% y/y for the fifth consecutive time. Chicago PMI is set to rise to 62.0 in March from 61.9 (Thursday), while final Michigan sentiment may hold at 102.0 in March. U.S. Markets will be closed for Good Friday.

Canada: The highlight is January GDP (Thursday), expected to rise 0.1% after the 0.1% gain in December. The industrial product price index (Thursday) is projected to rise 0.1% in February (m/m, nsa) after a 0.3% gain in January as the dip in gasoline prices restrains growth in the index. January average weekly earnings (Wednesday) are expected to rise 0.2% (m/m, sa) after the identical 0.2% gain in December. The Bank of Canada has been of the view that some slack remains in the labour market while the economy is operating at full capacity. The CFIB’s Business Barometer survey of small and medium business sentiment for March is due Thursday. There is nothing from the Bank of Canada this week. The next event is the release of the Business Outlook Survey on April 9, followed by the rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report on April 18. Canada’s stocks and bond markets are closed for Good Friday, March 30.

Europe: Europe will start to hunker down going into the long Easter Holiday weekend, but the calendar still holds key data releases. The German HICP (Thursday) firming back to 1.6% y/y from 1.2% y/y, while the French rate (Friday) is seen lifting to 1.5% y/y from 1.3% y/y, the Italian rate (Friday) to 0.8% y/y from 0.5%. This should leave the preliminary March Eurozone rate, due April 4, to come back to around 1.4/1.5%. This is still far below the ECB’s upper limit for price stability of 2%, but officials are more confident now that underlying inflation has turned a corner and is on the way higher.

This is partly a reflection of increasingly tight labor markets, especially in Germany, where the official jobless number (Thursday) is likely to dip by a further -15K, leaving the jobless rate at a very low 5.4%. German wage growth is indeed picking up, but the doves at the ECB argue that with more people entering the labor market, official figures underestimate the wider level of underemployment. PMIs, ZEW and Ifo surveys all declined in March and the Eurozone ESI economic confidence indicator (Tuesday) is expected to fall back to 113.4 from 114.1, thus backing the ECB’s cautious stance. Still, while there is some disagreement over the degree of slack remaining in the economy, and how urgent is the need to phase out of exceptional measures, it is still pretty clear that the ECB is preparing to end net asset purchases by the end of the year. Officials don’t seem in a hurry though to commit to such a step just yet, however, and if volatility remains high, Draghi could delay a clarification of the future of QE until July, still well ahead of the end of the current QE schedule in September.The data calendar meanwhile also includes Eurozone M3 numbers, German import price inflation and consumer confidence as well as Italian confidence data and industrial orders and finally French consumer spending numbers.

UK: The calendar brings, in chronologic order, mortgage lending data (Monday), the monthly Nationwide house price indicator and the latest CBI distributive trades survey (both Wednesday),and Gfk consumer confidence, the third and final release of Q4 GDP data, Q4 current account figures, and monthly lending data from the BoE (all on Thursday). From these, the CBI retail survey expected to show a realised sales headline of 7 in March, after 8 in the month prior, the Gfk consumer confidence to remain unchanged a -10 in March, and GDP growth to remain unrealised at 0.4% q/q and 1.4% y/y. In-line outcomes would not likely impact sterling markets much. The markets will be closed Friday through Monday for Easter.

Japan: In Japan, growth has shown signs of slowing after the better than expected Q4 GDP pace of 1.6%. And the erosion in business sentiment could portend further slippage, especially on regional trade worries as well as the firmer JPY. Additionally, the stronger yen could thwart the BoJ’s reflation attempt. This week’s data will help clarify the outlook. February services PPI (Tuesday) is expected to dip to a 0.6% y/y pace from 0.7%. February retail sales (Thursday) are seen climbing to a 1.0% y/y clip from 0.4% for large retailers, and to 2.0% y/y from 1.5% overall. Tokyo March CPI (Friday) is pencilled in at an unchanged 1.4% y/y overall, and 1.0% y/y from 0.9% on a core basis. February unemployment rate (Friday) is forecast at a steady 2.4%, while the job offers/seekers ratio likely remained steady at 1.59. February preliminary industrial production (Friday) is expected to bounce to a 6.0% y/y rate from -6.6%, though a lot of the swing could be a function of Lunar New Year distortions. February housing starts (Friday) are estimated to have improved to a -6.0% y/y pace after plunging to -13.2% previously (perhaps on poor weather). February construction orders are also due Friday.

Australia: The data calendar has private sector credit (Thursday), expected to improve to a 5.0% y/y pace in February from 4.9% in January. The usually busy Reserve Bank of Australia has nothing on the docket this week. The next event is the April 3 board meeting, which no change to the current 1.50% rate setting is expected.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 27th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is up 1.0 bp at 0.528% in early trade, vs a 1.5 bp gain in 10-year JGB yields. Treasury yields are down -0.4 bp, but have also lifted from the lows seen during the Asian session, as stock markets bounced back in Asia. Peripheral bonds are outperforming as risk appetite improves and European stock futures are also rallying. The GER30 future is up more than 1.8% as risk appetite strengthens amid hopes that U.S. posturing on tariffs is primarily a tool to gain trade concessions and won’t trigger and all out trade war. Still, volatility is likely to remain high and sentiment fragile which is underpinning volatility on markets. The data calendar picks up today. Released at the start of the session German import price inflation came in weaker than expected. Spanish HICP numbers will also be watched closely and Eurozone ESI economic sentiment is expected to dip again.

FX Update: The yen posted fresh lows today, losing ground for a second straight day amid a backdrop of reviving risk appetite and associated gains in global stock markets. USDJPY clocked a three-session high of 105.75 in Tokyo, about a 35 pip gain on the New York closing levels, putting in some further distance from the 16-month low seen on Friday at 104.64. EURJPY and other yen crosses have seen a similar price action. There was no data or other news of market-moving note today. A belief in market narratives that Trump’s protectionism push will be more bluff than buster, with initial grandiose threats giving way to watering down, exemptions and negotiation, have been underpinning stock markets this week, and seeing the yen’s safe haven premium unwind. Elsewhere, the dollar has largely consolidated near lows posted yesterday against the euro and many other currencies. EURUSD has been settled near 1.2450 after yesterday seeing a six-week high at 1.2461. Cable has seen a similar action. AUDUSD and NZDUSD managed fresh highs before backing off. USDCAD edged out a two-session low at 1.2828.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• Eurozone ESI – is expected to fall back to 113.4 from 114.1, thus backing the ECB’s cautious stance on the phasing out of QE. Bundesbank President Weidmann may be pushing for a firm commitment to the end of net asset purchases, but Draghi and Praet seem less in a hurry and with markets still jittery officials could well wait until July before clarifying the future of QE beyond September.

• CB Consumer Confidence – is expected to hold up near 130.40 in March from 130.8 in February.

Support and Resistance level


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 28th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: German 10-year yields are down in opening trade, in tandem with global trends, as long bonds are underpinned by a fresh bout of risk aversion and a sell off in stocks. Fresh selling of tech stocks sparked a sharp decline on Wall Street yesterday, that was followed by a broad correction in Asia and European stock futures are heading south in tandem with U.S. futures. The GER30 future lost more than -0.9% in opening trade. The 10-year Bund yield has dipped back below the 0.5% mark, the 10-year Treasury yield consolidated below 2.8% during the Asian session after declining sharply during U.S. hours, the 10-year JGB yield is down -0.1 bp at 0.027%. Month and quarter end cash flows, redemptions and sizeable index extensions in Europe will continue to underpin peripherals in particular and could help to keep Eurozone spreads narrow despite the flare up in risk aversion. Meanwhile German GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly improved. Still to come, the U.K. has the CBI distributive trade survey as well as BoE Agent reports of business conditions and Italian orders and sales numbers for the industrial sector.

FX Update: USDJPY and yen crosses have settled lower versus yesterday’s highs, with the Japanese currency finding renewed safe haven demand as Wall Street, specifically the tech-sector, led a fresh global stock market wobble. News that the Trump trade team may be planning to use emergency laws via CFIUS to clamp down on China investment into the U.S. also set a negative tone. Investors will remain focused on developments in the tech sector and on Trump’s protectionist policies, which in turn will have a bearing on the yen. The visit to Beijing by North Korea’s Kim has been greeted as a positive in terms of further allaying geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsular, though evidently hasn’t been sufficient tonic to quell the risk-off vibe in markets. BoJ’s Kuroda repeated, for the umpteenth time, that the central bank will persist with “powerful” monetary stimulus, while Japanese PM Abe said that a delay in the planned sales tax hike would be considered in the scenario of a financial shock. The Nikkei 225 equity index finished 2% for the worse. USDJPY, which has been trending lower since early January, and technically remains in this downtrend, has resistance at 105.94-95.

Charts of the Day


Main Macro Events Today

• US Final GDP & Good Trade Balance – MBA mortgage applicationsis due today as well, followed by the advanced trade in goods deficit, seen narrowing to -$72.5 bln from -$75.3 bln. The third report on Q4 GDP may rise to 2.7% vs 2.5%.

• Crude Oil Inventories –

Support and Resistance level


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 29th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: the 10-year Bund yield is up 0.8 bp at 0.505% in early trade, amid an overall mixed picture on global bond markets. Peripherals are slightly outperforming in Europe, the 10-year JGB yield is up 0.3 bp at 0.026%, but down from earlier highs, the 10-year Treasury yield is up from lows and unchanged at 2.78%. European stock futures struggled initially, but are now broadly higher, after a mixed session in Asia. Traders remain cautious after the sell off in tech stocks and amid the surge in risk appetite, but with the long Easter holiday weekend looming things may quieten down somewhat. This is also the last trading day for Bunds this month and this quarter and after sizeable index extensions in EGBs may have underpinned peripheral bonds in particular, the effect is likely to wane now, although upcoming redemption should keep the ECB in the market. Released overnight U.K. GfK consumer confidence surprised on the upside, while house price data disappointed. The calendar still has key German inflation data as well as German labour market numbers. U.K. lending data and the third reading of U.K. Q4 GDP.

FX Update: The dollar has traded softer in relatively quiet trade into what will be long holiday weekend for many major centres. EURUSD has settled in the lower 1.23s after tipping to a low of 1.2399 late yesterday. USDJPY ebbed back to the mid 106.0s from the upper 106.00s, partly on the softer dollar and partly on yen gains. A mixed session across Asian stock markets spoke of a continued vexed sentiment, with FAANG stocks on Wall Street a prevailing source of bearishness. Japan’s finance minister, Aso, attempted to walk the yen lower by arguing that yield differentials warrant higher levels in USDJPY.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• German Unemployment – the official jobless number is likely to dip by a further -15K (, leaving the jobless rate at a very low 5.4%. German wage growth is indeed picking up, but the doves at the ECB argue that with more people entering the labor market, official figures underestimate the wider level of underemployment.

• German March HICP – German HICP expected to firm back to 1.6% y/y from 1.2% y/y in the previous month, which is in line with consensus and partly based on the assumption that the earlier timing of Easter this year lifted holiday related prices in March rather than April, and thus added positive base effects.

• Canada GDP – GDP expected to expand 0.1% in January (m/m, sa) after the 0.1% rise in December. The risk is to the downside in January, as manufacturing shipments contracted and home sales tumbled. The 1.1% tumble in manufacturing shipment volumes during January is a heavy weight on the January GDP outlook.

• US data – Initial jobless claims may dip 5k to 224k for the March 24 week, with personal income forecast to rise 0.4% in February and spending seen +0.3% (median 0.2%); core PCE prices may remain at a lowly 1.5% y/y for the fifth consecutive time. Chicago PMI is set to rise to 62.0 in March from 61.9 , while final Michigan sentiment may hold at 102.0 in March.

Support and Resistance level

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.