Daily Market Analysis from Hotforex Broker

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,178
2
74
Date : 5th January 2015

EURUSD PRINTED FRESH 9 YEAR LOWS ON WORRIES OF GREEK EUROZONE EX.


EURUSD dropped on Friday and closed at 1.2001. The Manufacturin PMI in Germany remained unchanged at a reading of 52.1 in December 2014. On the other hand the Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone dropped to a reading of 50.6 in December. Data released from the United States revealed that the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped of 55.5. The Final Manufacturing PMI in the US also dropped to a level of 53.9 in December.

Over the weekend fears about a potential Greek exit of the Eurozone if the Greek opposition party Syriza wins the elections in January caused large gaps on the market. EURUSD stops were triggered and the pair hit a 9 year low level dropping to 1.1856.

Investors are now awaiting the German Preliminary CPI data and the speech of the FOMC Member John Williams.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1869 and resistance is seen at 1.1978.

EURUSD-05-January-2015.jpg


Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
 

garena

Master Trader
Jan 28, 2014
243
5
54
new low again. It must be bounced this week. I don't think it keep moving down anymore, I am looking for a break at this support level to buy.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,178
2
74
Date : 6th January 2015

EURUSD TRADING BELOW THE 1.19 LEVEL AHEAD OF THE US SESSION. ISM NON-MANUFACTURING PMI FROM THE UNITED STATES DUE TODAY.

EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.1932. The German Preliminary Consumer Price Index remained flat in December against the market expectations of a 0.1 percent rise. On the other hand the Sentix Investor Confidence in the Eurozone rose to a level of 0.9 in January. The number of unemployed people in Spain dropped to a level of 64.4K in December.

During his statement the President of the United States Federal Reserve in San Francisco, John Williams opined that the increase of the interest rates should be gradual at the beginning. He also indicated that the policymakers have been discussing the potential rate increase by the middle of 2015.

Investors are now looking forward for the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI due from the United States later today.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1869 and resistance is seen at 1.1978.

EURUSD-06-January-2015.jpg

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,178
2
74
Date : 7th January 2015

EURUSD PREPARING TO TEST THE 1.18 LEVEL AFTER NEGATIVE CPI FROM THE EUROZONE AND BETTER THAN EXPECTED ADP NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE REPORT FROM THE UNITED STATES.

EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.1889. The Final Services PMI in the Eurozone came out closed to the market expectations at 51.6. The same report from the United States followed and also came close to the market expectations at a reading of 53.3. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI failed to meet the market expectations and came out at a reading of 56.2 in December.

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Data released today pushed to EURUSD even lower. The CPI Flash Estimate year over year report from the Eurozone came out at a reading of -0.2 percent. That’s the first time since 2009 where the Eurozones’s CPI declines. A report from the United States pressurized the single European currency after the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came out better than the market expectations at a reading of 241K.

While the EURUSD is looking to potentially break the 1.18 level investors are looking forward for the FOMC Meeting Minutes due later today.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1817 and resistance is seen at 1.1936.

EURUSD-07-January-2015.jpg

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,178
2
74
Date : 8th January 2015

EURUSD KEEPS PRINTING NEW LOWS IN THE EUROPEAN SESSION. THE US UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS REPORT DUE TODAY.

EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.1838. The Consumer Price Index in the Eurozone dropped -0.2 percent on an annual basis in December. The fall of the prices for a 2nd consecutive month might pressurize the European Central Bank to start its stimulus program immediately.

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The FOMC Meeting Minutes showed that most of the Fed officials agreed that the central bank do not consider increasing rates before April 2015. The Trade Balance in the United States came out better than expected at -39.0B in November 2014. The positive tone for the US dollar was also confirmed by the better than expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report which came out 241K in December against the expected reading of 227K.

Investors are now looking forward for the Unemployment Claims report.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1763 and resistance is seen at 1.1889.

EURUSD-08-January-2015.jpg

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,178
2
74
Date : 9th January 2015

EURUSD TRADING FLAT AHEAD OF THE US NON-FARM PAYROLLS REPORT.

EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.1792. The single European currency came under pressure after the German Factory Orders dropped 2.4 percent on a monthly basis in November. On the other hand the Retail Sales data from the Eurozone came out better than expected recording a gain of 0.6 percent in November.

Data from the United States indicated that the Unemployment Claims during the last week were 294K which was close to the market expectations of a reading of 291K and less than the previous week’s report of 298K.

Investors are now looking forward for the US Non-Farm Employment Change report and the Unemployment rate data. The possibility of high volatility on the market prior and after the releases exists and investors should be fully aware of it.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1763 and resistance is seen at 1.1889.

EURUSD-09-January-2015.jpg

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,178
2
74
Date : 12th January 2015

EURUSD TRADING NEAR THE LOWS IN THE LATE EUROPEAN SESSION. LIGHT ECONOMIC CALENDAR TODAY.

EURUSD rose on Friday and closed at 1.1840. The German Industrial Production dropped on a monthly basis coming at a reading of 0.1 percent in November. The Unemployment Rate in the United States fell to a 15-year low level of 5.6 percent in December. The Non-Farm Payrolls surprised the investors coming better than the market expectations with a gain of 252K in December. The Wholesale Inventories also followed the positive tone registering a rise of 0.8 percent.

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The President of the United States Federal Reserve in Richmond, Jeffrey Lacker expressed his optimism about the US economy and projected a rise of the GDP from 2.5 to 3 percent in 2015.

On the other hand the President of the Federal Reserve in Chicago, Charles Evans stated that even as the labor market continues to show considerable progress the current inflation and the inflation outlook remain low and Fed should avoid increasing rates until 2016.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1763 and resistance is seen at 1.1889.

EURUSD-12-January-2015.jpg

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,178
2
74
Date : 13th January 2015

EURUSD TRADING NEAR THE 1.1800 LEVEL AFTER PUSHING HIGHER IN THE ASIAN SESSION.

EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.1833. The European Central Bank Governing Council Member Ewald Nowotny stated that the central bank should act soon rather than later to boost the economic growth and inflation in the currency union. Nowotny also added that the policymakers are discussing steps including bond buying in order to spur the growth in the region. It is also widely expected that the ECB will announce a launch of the QE program as early as 21st January, as consumer prices in the EU are into deflationary territory according to the preliminary data that was released.

During his speech yesterday the President of the United States Federal Reserve in Atlanta Dennis Lockhart indicated that the sees the US economy moving ahead in its recovery. Lockhart added that he sees the potential increase in the interest rates in the middle of 2015.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1763 and resistance is seen at 1.1889.

EURUSD-12-January-2015-0.jpg

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,178
2
74
Date : 14th January 2015

EURUSD DROPS BELOW 1.1747 WHILE ECB CONTINUES TO DISCUSS THE QE PROGRAM. US RETAIL SALES DATA DUE TODAY.

EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.1771. Data released yesterday showed that the German Wholesale Price Index dropped 1.0 percent on a monthly basis in December. On the other hand the Industrial Production in Italy rose 0.3 percent on a monthly basis in November beating the market expectations of a 0.1 percent rise.

In the United States the NFIB Small Business Index rose to a level of 100.4 in December. Another report revealed that the JOLTS Job Openings advanced to a reading of 4.97M in November.

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The World Bank increased the economic growth forecast for the United States to 3.2 percent from 3.0 percent projected earlier, while downgrading the Eurozone economic growth forecast to 1.1 percent from the 1.8 percent projected earlier.

Investors are now looking forward for the Retail Sales data due to be released from the United States later today.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1734 and resistance is seen at 1.1870.

EURUSD-14-January-2015.jpg

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,178
2
74
Date : 15th January 2015

A HISTORICAL DAY FOR THE FOREX MARKET – EURUSD DROPPED BELOW 1.1600 AFTER SNB REMOVED THE 1.20 PEG.

EURUSD rose yesterday and closed at 1.1789. The European Court of Justice ruled that the ECB bond buying program was legitimate once certain conditions were met. Basically the ruling cleared the obstacle in front of the program and the QE might be launched when ECB decides.

Data from the United States revealed that the dropped 0.9 percent in December. The Core Retail Sales recorded a drop of 1.0 percent.

The President of the United States Federal Reserve in Philadelphia Charles Plosser urged the central bank to hike the interest rates soon, citing the improvements in the US economic conditions.

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During the European session today the Swiss National Bank decided to remove the peg from the 1.20 level on the EURCHF. The release shocked the markets and caused large moves on a large number of currency pairs sending EURUSD below the 1.1600 level.

Reports released from the United States indicated that the Unemployment Claims rose slightly during the last week to 316K. On the other hand the Core PPI and the Empire State Manufacturing Index surprised the markets with better than expected performance.

Investors are now looking forward for the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and the speech of the Deutsche Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann due later today.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1660 and resistance is seen at 1.1825.

EURUSD-15-January-2015.jpg

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,178
2
74
Date : 16th January 2015

EURUSD TRADING HIGHER AHEAD OF THE EUROZONE’S FINAL CPI DATA.

EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.1632. The Trade Balance in the Eurozone increased to 20 Billion Euro in November. Data from the United States indicated that the initial jobless claims rose to 316K during the last week. On the other hand the Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to a level of 10 in January.

The President of the United States Federal Reserve in Boston Eric Rosengren opined that he is not confident about the US moving towards the 2 percent inflation target and urged the central bank to remain patient about increasing the interest rates.

Investors are now looking forward for the Final CPI data from the Eurozone and the CPI data from the United States. Later on the Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due to be released from the United States.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1583 and resistance is seen at 1.1740.

EURUSD-16-January-2015.jpg

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,178
2
74
Date : 19th January 2015

EURUSD REMAINS STABLE IN THE QUIET EUROPEAN SESSION SO FAR. US BANKS CLOSED DUE TO THE OBSERVANCE OF THE MARTIN LUTHER KING DAY.

EURUSD dropped on Friday and closed at 1.1563. The CPI in the Eurozone dropped 0.2 percent on an annual basis in December. Inflation remained below the 2 percent target of the European Central Bank for a 22nd consecutive month.

Data from the United States revealed that the consumer prices in the US dropped 0.4 percent on a monthly basis in December. The President of the United States Federal Reserve in Minneapolis Narayana Kocherlakota warned the US central bank against risk of raising the interest rate prematurely. He also urged Fed to consider the inflation data before thinking of moving forward with the interest rate increase.

On the other hand the President of Fed in St. Louis James Bullard reiterated that Fed should raise the interest rates by the end of the first quarter of 2015. His view was also supported by the San Fracisco Fed President John Williams who expressed confidence in the job market and the inflation outlook.

The US banks are closed today due to the observance of the Martin Luther King Day.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1490 and resistance is seen at 1.1646.

EURUSD-19-January-2015.jpg

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,178
2
74
Date : 20th January 2015

EURUSD STABLE AFTER BETTER THAN EXPECTED GERMAN ZEW ECONOMIC SENTIMENT RELEASE.

EURUSD rose yesterday and closed at 1.1606. The Current Account in the Eurozone dropped to 18.1B in November.

Early this morning the International Monetary Fund cut the economic growht forecast for the Eurozone to 1.2 percent in 2015 from the previous estimate of 1.3 percent. On the other hand the growth forecast for the United States was revised up to 3.6 percent from the previous forecast of 3.1 percent, due to the robust private domestic demand according to the IMF.

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Investors are now looking forward for the speech of the FOMC member Jerome Powell at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC due later today.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1490 and resistance is seen at 1.1646.

EURUSD-20-January-2015.jpg

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,178
2
74
Date : 21th January 2015

EURUSD TRADING SIDEWAYS IN THE EUROPEAN SESSION. US BUILDING PERMITS DATA DUE TO BE RELEASED TODAY.

EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.1549. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment rose to a reading of 48.4 in January surprising the market participants. The ZEW Economic Sentiment in the Eurozone followed the positive tone and also recorded a rise to a reading of 45.2.

Data from the United States indicated that the NAHB Housing Market Index unexpectedly dropped to a reading of 57.0 in January.

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During his speech in Washington DC the FOMC Member Jerome Powell condemned the manipulation of benchmark interest rates like the LIBOR and called for further regulatory measures to prevent such rigging and restore the public confidence in the financial system.

Investors are now looking forward for the Building Permits data due from the United States later today.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1490 and resistance is seen at 1.1646.

EURUSD-21-January-2015.jpg

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,178
2
74
Date : 23rd January 2015

EURUSD DROPPED NEAR THE 1.1100 LEVEL AHEAD OF THE US SESSION.

EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.1360. During the ECB Press Conference the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi announced the start of the QE program. He stated that ECB will purchase 60 billion EUR per month worth of securities including investment grade sovereign bonds starting from the beginning of March and currently scheduled to September 2016. The European Central Bank decided to keep the interest rate steady at 0.05 percent.

Data from the United States revealed that the Unemployment Claims dropped to 307K during the last week. Another report indicated that the House Price Index in the US rose 0.8 percent from the 0.4 percent registered during the previous month.

EURUSD-23-January-2015.jpg

During the European session today the single European currency registered another sharp drop registering lows near the 1.1100 level.

Investors should be aware that the premature parliamentary elections in Greece on Sunday may bring volatility on the market during the market open.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1114 and resistance is seen at 1.1374.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,178
2
74
Date : 27th January 2015

EURUSD TRADING HIGHER AHEAD OF THE US CORE DURABLE GOODS ORDERS REPORT.

EURUSD rose yesterday and closed at 1.1237. Data released yesterday showed that the German Ifo Business Climate rose to a level of 106.7 in January reaching a 6-month high.

The afternoon will be dominated by releases from the United States including the Core Durable Goods Orders, The CB Consumer Confidence and the New Home Sales data. The ECOFIN Meetings are also taking place today in Brussels.

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Investors should be fully aware that any potential information regarding the situation in Greece might bring volatility on the market.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1135 and resistance is seen at 1.1344.

EURUSD-27-January-2015.jpg

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,178
2
74
Date : 4th February 2015

EURUSD AT A RESISTANCE LEVEL, BUT POTENTIAL SUPPORT IS NEAR.

Now that the Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted lower from a historical resistance area and EURUSD (the heaviest component in the DXY) has created a narrow range bar in the weekly time frame we have potential in EURUSD for a larger than usual corrective move against the trend. The narrow range candle signals that supply and demand where in balance last week, something that doesn’t sit well with those holding on to their shorts. We’ve also had the pair moving outside the trend channel that used to contain the move. This increases the likelihood that we will get a larger than usual contra trend move. Oscillators are oversold but edging higher with price crossing above the lower Bollinger Bands. Fibonacci levels (23.6%, 38.2% and 61.8%) coincide with the resistance levels I have identified in the chart.

EURUSD-d.png


EURUSD, Daily

I wrote on Monday after the Syriza election victory in Greece: “I find it significant that EURUSD, although it is still in a downtrend, has not moved significantly lower on the news Syriza winning the Greek elections. Rather it is ticking higher after the smallish initial drop… Market reactions are important as was proven with my analysis with Gold. A positive reaction to a news item that should have been negative for Gold hinted that it was time to buy the yellow metal, regardless all the negative fundamental analysis available at the time. This proved to be exactly the right time to buy Gold. Now, this same logic when combined with technical analysis could provide us with a trade opportunity in Euro against weaker currencies”. The price action on that day resulted in a hammer bar and the price has moved higher ever since, proving once again that the market reaction to the news is more important than the news itself. Price has reached a resistance level at 1.1540 and Stochastics is getting into overbought area. This has stalled the advance. We have a support level at 1.1368 and the next resistance area coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci level is at 1.1755, fairly close to the upper Bollinger Bands.

EURUSD, 240 min

Price moved outside the regression channel before Greek elections and has now made an over shoot in the opposite direction. A shooting star candle at the 1.1540 resistance indicates selling pressure but there has not been much downside momentum after the candle was created. Stochastics indicate that the momentum is reversing. The nearest support level is at 1.1368.


EURUSD-4h.png


Conclusion:

The narrow range candle in the weekly time frame signals that supply and demand where in balance last week, something that doesn’t sit well with those holding on to their shorts. We’ve also had the pair moving outside the trend channel that used to contain the move. This increases the likelihood that we will get a larger than usual contra trend move.

EURUSD is overbought in terms of Stochastics in the 4h chart and signals that there is potentially a momentum reversal taking place. However, the downside momentum after the shooting star candle has been sluggish. This could be explained by the 1.1368 support being relatively close. Price can turn lower from here but the shorts trades are likely to be short lived with a daily support area being so close. This might put off some market participants and limit the downside potential from these levels. The 1.1755 is likely to be a better level for high probability trades as several technical factors coincide in the proximity of this level.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,178
2
74
Date : 5th February 2015

INCREASED VOLATILITY IN CRUDE OIL

The price of oil has collapsed with the strengthening dollar and has reached levels that were last seen in the later stages of the financial crisis in 2008. This suggests that the current levels are deeply oversold both fundamentally and technically. The world economy is certainly slowing down but it is in a better shape than it was in the first quarter of 2009 when the US Crude Oil futures dropped to $33.35. Therefore, it makes sense to expect Crude Oil to be relatively close to the levels it could find a bottom.


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Crude Oil, Daily 2009

Over the last 30 years it has taken in average 2 to 3 months for oil to bottom out after a major downside move. It would therefore be safe to assume that the bottoming process will provide us with plenty of opportunities to join the long side, or to scale into long positions thus lowering the timing related risks. In terms of price velocity the downward move seen over the last few months has been similar to the one seen in 2008. When this downside move finally ended the market moved sideways for a period of time allowing low risk entries at Bollinger Bands.

XLE-Daily.png


XLE, Daily

I mentioned some time ago in my S&P 500 analysis that the energy sector etf is forming a bullish wedge and that this would be confirmed by a breakout. Now the breakout has happened and we have a higher low in place. This obviously signals that the market participants are turning bullish on energy related stocks, a clear indication that they believe that the downside in oil is in their view limited.

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Crude Oil, Weekly

The price of oil is close to the 2009 lows but is still inside a weekly downward trend channel. The latest reaction from a resistance level that coincided with the channel top was relatively strong. However, this kind of volatility is typical when prices get close to levels where the trend might turn. Last week the price closed inside the lower 1.5 stdv Bollinger Band for the first time since September 2014. The nearest support and resistance levels are at 43.58 and 53.60.

CL-D.png


Crude Oil, Daily

Price has broken out of the descending regression channel and created a higher high. If we now get a higher low the bullish indication is rather strong but even a roughly equal low would mean that the buyers are gaining control in this market. Volatility has definitely increased which is not only evidenced by the higher high but also by the Stochastic indicator it has not been in overbought territory since July last year.


Crude Oil, 240 min

Price has retraced to 61.8% Fibonacci level that coincides with a descending trendline. Stochastic is oversold and the price is reacting higher from the lower Bollinger Bands.

Conclusion:

The increase in volatility at levels that are close to the bottoming formation from 2009 is a reason to pay attention to the price action in Crude Oil in the near future. This is confirmed by the bullish breakout in the US energy sector shares ETF (XLE). If this turns out to be the range in which the market bottoms then the best levels to be a buyer are those that are close to the bottom of the range. However, the fact that so many technical tools indicate support for Crude Oil in the 4h time frame we could look for intraday buy signals in the general area of current price action.


Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hotforex
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,178
2
74
Date : 6th February 2015

GBPUSD MOVED PAST SEVERAL WEEKLY HIGHS

The pair has moved briskly past three weekly highs this week. The move comes after it formed what looks to be a higher weekly low now that the pair has closed above the resistance levels. This is the first time GBPUSD has been able to close above so many weekly highs since the downtrend began in July last year. Even though the weekly candle is still inside the regression channel such strength signals a turnaround in this pair. This is even more likely as the move comes from levels that were able to stop the decline and turn the market into an uptrend in 2013. Stochastics are edging higher and the support and resistance levels are: 1.4954 weekly low and 1.5541 weekly low in proximity of the 23.6% Fibonacci level.

GBPUSDdaily.png


GBPUSD, Daily

The pair has broken out of the descending regression channel. I tweeted yesterday that GBPUSD was at resistance and looking weak. The reasoning behind this was that the candle from day before was a shooting star candle and the hourly chart yesterday showed signs of momentum reversal just below the 1.5269 resistance and the daily Bollinger bands. These indications proved to be wrong and the price shot higher through the resistance. All this put together indicates that the market is pretty firmly in the hands of the bulls. The former resistance levels are now likely to be supports. The current support and resistance levels identified from the daily chart are: 1.4988, 1.5096, 1.5224, 1.5269 and 1.5487 1.5541. The 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels coincide with 1.5269 support and 1.5487 resistances. Stochastics are getting into the overbought area.


GBPUSD60.png


GBPUSD, 60 min

The hourly trend is higher with price at the upper end of the bull channel. The 1.5269 coincides with the lower end of the channel and with the Bollinger Bands. In addition, the 23.6% Fibonacci level is also in the proximity of the channel bottom. The other potential levels are the Fibonacci retracements and the 1.5096 support level should there be a deeper retracement. It always pays to look for momentum reversal signals once price comes back to the levels.


Conclusion:

With such a show of strength the only logical conclusion is to look for buying opportunities until we have price action based evidence to the contrary. Retracements to support levels should be monitored for momentum reversal signals. Levels that have several technical factors supporting the trade idea are always more likely to provide us with good trade entries. In this regard the 1.5260 to 1.5270 region is interesting but should today’s US Non-Farm Payroll figure deviate strongly from the expectations then we could see increased volatility and the lower levels could come into play. For successful swing entries I would be looking the 1.5487 to 1.5541 the target area.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hotforex


Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.