Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart (Fundamentals)

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 3, 2017


The EUR/USD pair has been subject to a lot of messy trading activity during the past trading sessions as the pair had no definite direction and generally exhibited an uncertain trading stance. The currency pair has been vainly trying to break through the 1.0800 trading range and briefly made it through this barrier and even reached up to 1.0828 points but eventually reverted back to its original stance after a massive sell-off met the pair, causing it to fall back to 1.0800 and even went as low as just over 1.0760 points.


Today is the scheduled release date of the NFP report from the US, and the market volatility is expected to surge as this particular report is one of the major economic reports anticipated by the markets every month. The NFP report now is even more crucial than ever, because the Fed has previously stated that the central bank will be relying on positive economic data as basis for whether they will be hiking interest rates in the future or otherwise. In addition, the release of the NFP report is equally important to restore investor and trader confidence in the USD, especially since the past few days has seen the dollar subject to more weakness as Trump drew negative comments from his recently implemented foreign policies such as the immigration ban. This is one of the reasons why the general direction of the EUR/USD remains uncertain since the market wants first to confirm the results of the NFP report before making any concrete moves.


For today’s session, US will be releasing its NFP report as well as the non-manufacturing PMI data and average wage earnings data. Investors are hoping that these economic data comes out as positive in order to induce some strength in the ever-weakening stance of the US dollar.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 6, 2017


The EUR/USD pair will undergo pressure this week. Moreover, the NFP report was positive as the average earnings positioned at 0.1% lower than the expected 0.3%. When at first, it is expected for the bulls to take over the market but the trend doesn't have enough momentum bringing the price towards the 1.0800 as a resistance level which was the prior region. The greenback is being swayed because of the uncertainty from Trump and his team to change the policies and cannot be determined the next move of Euro.


The current psychological level at 1.0800 is a significant region and a break in this region could further bring the price towards the 1.12 mark which has been the region for some time last week. The market is trying to break the EUR/USD in the midst of the weakened dollar. At the same time, the market aims to stabilize the current rates but there were not enough support from the administration and economic policy changes and the reports of the economic data.


Although, a majority of the support for the currency supported from the economic data or the administration and at the same time influence the next Fed rate hike. However, it seems that the wage earnings reports are on the lows which could delay the rate hike process. This would put more pressure to the dollar today and this whole week and it is still uncertain until when the dollar rates would hold.


As for today, there will be no major economic news from the Euro or from U.S. regions. It is expected for the price to EUR/USD to remain in consolidation with a bullish bias with chances of a breakout near the 1.0800 level.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: February 6, 2017


The USD/JPY pair attempted to rally several times during the past week due to the positive feel of the US equity markets as well as its effect on the US carry trade but there was a shortage of buyers which could have fueled an upside follow-through. The USD/JPY pair finished the previous trading session at 112.551 points after dropping by -2.17% or 2.496 points. This movement in the currency pair was largely due to Trump’s comments in the past week as well as statements coming from both the Fed and the BoJ.


The FOMC maintained its current rates last week at 0.50%-0.75% and was generally expected by the majority of market players, but the bearish tone of the USD/JPY pair was also largely influenced by the Fed’s refusal to give out hints with regards to its next interest rate hike.


There are no major news releases coming from either Japan or US for this week, and this means that the market will be affected by events that will have a bearing on the current stance of the US dollar. Currently, Trump is aiming for a weaker USD value in order for him to upgrade his statements with regards to currency devaluations and other unfair trade policies. The charts are indicating that the USD/JPY pair could possibly rise up to 109.919 points if sellers of the pair would be able to put enough pressure on the market to march through 112.00 points.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 8, 2017


The market has been experiencing a lot of volatility recently due to the pronounced weakness of most major currencies, with traders having a hard time picking out definite directions, with profits going from positive to negative in just a matter of minutes. During yesterday’s session, the USD was able to regain the majority of losses against the EUR, with the EUR/USD pair falling down to 1.0700 points. For a brief moment it looked like that this particular stance of the currency pair would remain standing and would eventually become overpowered by the dollar’s strength but the following day saw the dollar losing its ground and dropping back to its previous lows. There is basically a surrounding fear and marked uncertainty felt within the market right now that all currencies are very weak, which has resulted in this very rare price action.


There are no major news data expected to be released from either the European Union or the US today, and this means more ranging and consolidation activity for the EUR/USD pair. This is generally okay for day traders but could spell disaster for long-term traders as they become hard pressed to find direction in this very chaotic market environment.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 9, 2017


The USD/CAD pair is still trapped within a tight trading range, however the currency pair’s bulls are fairly satisfied with the USD/CAD’s performance as the currency pair is still relatively strong in spite of the dollar weakness, and once the dollar regains its strength, then this will mean very good news for the pair’s bulls. The USD/CAD pair has recently undergone a very stressful period due to the dollar weakness combined with a surge in oil prices which has helped the Canadian dollar keep its head above water.


As the week unfurled, the market has seen oil prices being subject to tremendous pressure and corrections, thereby putting added pressure on the value of the CAD. This is why the Canadian dollar started losing some of its value at the beginning of the week and has provided support for the USD/CAD bulls. Strengthening the currency pair and revert back from its support barrier of 1.3000, with the USD/CAD currently trading at just under 1.3200 points. The pair is expected to continue its upward trend and would only go in for a trend reversal once it manages to break through 1.3000 points. Until then, the USD/CAD would probably exhibit reversions from its lows and the bulls would still be dominating the currency pair, with a medium-term target of 1.4000 points.


There are no major news scheduled to be released from the Canadian economy today but we do have the unemployment claims data from the US, as well as comments from some Fed officials. However, these are not expected to make a significant dent in the pair’s current stance and the pair is expected to consolidate at 1.3200 for the rest of today’s sessions.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 9, 2017


The EUR/USD pair failed to make significant progress during the previous trading session and merely continued its current trend of ranging and consolidation and still failed to find a definite direction and was still unable to capitalize on the USD’s marked weakness. The currency pair has been finding difficulty with regards to breaking through the 1.0705 barrier, which has boded well for the US dollar in spite of its lack of progress. Under wholly different circumstances, this particular situation might have caused the dollar to undergo massive corrections but since other other major currencies have been trading on the weaker side of the chart as well, the USD has only managed to keep itself floating amidst the market weakness.


For the past few trading sessions, the euro has been consistently exhibiting a weak trading stance, which was mostly due to various uncertainties and concerns surrounding the European Union. There are now a lot of rumors swirling around whether the EU would still exist after a few years and whether the Brexit phenomenon would be repeated by other countries who would wish to leave the EU. Although a lot of eurozone leaders have attempted to pacify these rumors, this has nonetheless left an effect on the state of the EUR. The forthcoming French and German elections is also a cause of concern for the market since there are strong contenders who are in favor of leaving the union should they win the said elections. All of these factors are putting constant downward pressure on the euro, therefore preventing the currency to make any substantial progress.


US will be releasing its unemployment claims data today and some Fed officials are due to make statements at various forums, and these events are expected to induce volatility in an otherwise very docile currency market.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 14, 2017


The strength of the USD is now felt more than ever in the market, and this has caused other major currencies to experience the negative effects of the surge in the dollar’s value. For the EUR/USD pair, the currency pair has dropped to 1.0600 points and was only able to prevent itself from further decreasing due to its support barrier of 1.0580 points. However, the pair’s price activity looks very dismal and it is uncertain how long the bulls would be able to keep its hold on the pair before the bears manage to seize control and push the pair further downward. If this happens, then this could spell disaster for the euro.


The market is now able to fully adjust to Trump’s policies after an initial unrest caused by his team’s adjustments to certain regulations, with the market now sure of the administration’s approach with regards to policies, thereby improving investor confidence in the US dollar. This has helped to shift the market’s focus from the Fed’s future moves and Trump’s future implementations as well, and this has further helped to support the USD especially now that the Federal Reserve is keen on sticking to its statement that there will be a total of three interest rate hikes for this year.


The US will be releasing its PPI data today, and Fed chair Yellen will be making statements with regards to the central bank’s monetary policies during today’s speech in the New York session. The market will be monitoring Yellen’s speech later today and if Yellen becomes consistently bullish in her remarks, then the euro could be in for more price drops.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 14, 2017


A lot of analysts have been saying that it is highly likely that the USD/CAD pair will be subject to an increased amount of pressure as oil prices continue to stay afloat and the economic data coming from the Canadian region continues to be consistently positive, a signal that the country’s economy gets better everyday. The currency pair is expected to remain under pressure as long as the US dollar remains under control, and this also means that the pair’s bulls would need to consistently strive to maintain the support barrier at 1.3000 points. This activity has been seen during the past trading session as the pair was able to surpass the 1.3100 barrier and is now currently going towards 1.3050 points.


The USD/CAD bears were also helped by the fact that Trump and Trudeau’s meeting yesterday was quite cordial, with Trump clarifying that the shifts he will be making on trade agreements will not have that much of an effect towards Canada. This helped to support the Canadian dollar which tried to surpass the dollar strength but eventually failed as the USD consistently surged in value.


There are no major news releases coming from Canada to day but the US will be releasing its PPI data and Yellen will be making comments on the central bank’s future monetary policy as well as the current state of the US economy. If her comments come out as bullish, then the USD/CAD pair might move towards and could even surpass 1.3100 points.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 14, 2017


The GBP/USD pair exhibited a tight trading activity during yesterday’s session as the USD’s value surge was felt across the market. However, this activity somewhat failed to make a dent in the value of the sterling pound. A lot of analysts have been saying during the past few days that the GBP is practically the only currency which has resisted the negative effects of the dollar strength in spite of the fact that it continues to be weak as a result of the Brexit process. This is because UK government officials have been working very hard to make the Brexit process clear for everyone, and any kind of certainty is very much welcomed by market traders and investors.


Another reason for the GBP/USD’s resistance against the strength of the dollar is the continuously positive string of economic data coming from UK which is an indicator that the country’s economy has not yet been affected by the repercussions of the Brexit process. This could also mean that both the UK economy and the sterling pound might even become better and stronger in the long term even when it finally relieves itself from the European Union. These speculations was able to maintain the GBP/USD pair’s position at 500 pips, with more ranging and consolidation expected to continue in the near future in spite of the dollar strength.


UK will be releasing its CPI data today and this will be closely monitored by the market whether this will come out as positive and affirm the country’s strong economic status. US will also be releasing its PPI data today and Yellen will be making a statement with regards to the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, including economic status and interest rate hikes.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 20, 2017


The EUR/USD pair was subject to some nice amounts of volatility during the past week after the currency pair was mainly influenced by the dollar strength during the first half of the week, but immediately went into reversal as the latter part of the week started. The currency pair is now expected to consolidate with a bullish undertone for this week, with projected support levels at 1.0500 points and resistance levels expected to be at 1.0800 points.


Last week, the EUR/USD finally looked like it turned for the better as the currency pair made a steady march towards 1.0500 after breaking through 1.0600 after a foreshadowing of a long-awaited dollar uptrend. This was also further supported by Yellen’s confirmation that the Fed will be implementing another rate hike this coming March. However, the effect of this positive news was offset by the release of the CPI data which showed weak wages data in spite of the overall data being highly positive. This turned out to be unappealing for the dollar bulls and caused the USD’s strength to die down, causing the pair to end at just over 1.0600 points.


For this week, there will be a US market holiday and there are no expected data to come out from both the EU and the US for the week. The EUR/USD pair will most likely continue its current trend of ranging and consolidating for this week.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 22, 2017


The USD/CAD has still managed to keep itself afloat in spite of a small increase in oil prices during the previous trading session. The currency pair continued to trade within its ranges, but this could be a cause for celebration of the pair’s bulls as the USD/CAD traded within its range highs with no hints of weakness whatsoever. This movement was also partly due to the recent surge in the dollar’s value which ensured support for the pair’s bulls.


As of this morning, the USD/CAD has somewhat weakened in stance and spent most of the session consolidating within its range highs with no actual direction. The USD/CAD bulls are now monitoring the release of the FOMC minutes, whose hawkish outlook might possibly lend some much-needed support for the pair and finally create some sense of direction. If the minutes are able to meet market expectations, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly move towards 1.3200 and could even go beyond this range.


For today’s session, we have the FOMC meeting minutes set to be released as well as the release of the US housing data. Meanwhile, the Canadian economy will be releasing its core retail sales data which will have to be closely watched by the USD/CAD bears in order for them to regain dominance over the currency pair.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 22, 2017


The GBP/USD pair continues to trade very well during the past trading sessions in spite of the US dollar regaining the majority of its losses. The GBP/USD pair remains to be one of the most resilient currency pairs, with the pair even bouncing back significantly as the dollar exhibited weakness and managing to hold on its own once the USD strengthened.


However, it is important to note that in spite of its relative strength, the GBP/USD pair is still trading within a very wide range of 400-500 pips, with the pair consistently trading within this range and not going much further. However, as the Brexit process starts to unfold and with the forthcoming invocation of Article 50, the pair might be in for some added volatility in the coming weeks. But it still remains to be seen whether the pair will be able to finally surpass its current ranges and record some significant change in trend.


UK will be releasing its second GDP estimate today which is expected to give the market an inkling of the current state of the UK economy. The GDP estimate would most likely come out as somewhat positive since the economic state of the country has been well during the past periods. The FOMC minutes will also be released later today, and this is expected to be an indicator of the GBP/USD pair’s short-term trend. If the market expectations with regards to the FOMC minutes is met, then the currency pair could possibly revert back to 1.2400 points.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 28, 2017


The market saw a very dismal durable goods data reading while Trump continues to further delay his long-awaited tax cut policies, thereby contributing to the further dwindling of the value of the US dollar. As a reaction to this particular phenomenon, the EUR/USD pair was able to reach 1.0630 points in a matter of a few hours and seems poised to move further.


However, the US dollar suddenly reverted its losses for no apparent reason at all and this caused the EUR/USD to drop further to 1.0600 before settling at just over 1.0580 points. Some market analysts are crediting this sudden surge in the dollar’s value to Trump’s previous statements regarding the infrastructure increases, a favorite campaign topic of Trump during his candidacy. Previously, there have been rumors swirling around that this infrastructure policies would not come into effect until 2018, but since Trump has already re-discussed this particular proposal, the market has since then been speculating that the increase might be implemented within the year which could help in keeping the buoyancy of the market. The USD has been able to revert its losses as a result but the real determinant here would be the rate statement next month as well as the FOMC rates.


Now that the market is slowly shifting its focus from Trump’s policies towards the move of the Federal Reserve, it is highly likely that the market’s movements will be relying on the Fed’s decision on when they will be implementing the next rate hike.


There are no major releases coming from the eurozone today but the US will be releasing its consumer spending data as well as its Preliminary GDP data today which could bring in added volatility to the USD and affect the EUR/USD pair. The currency pair is expected to continue consolidating with bullish undertones for today.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 28, 2017


The USD/CAD had a strong bullish trade during the previous session after the bulls were able to regain its dominance over this particular currency pair. The bulls had previously attempted last week to gain control over the pair after the release of a dismal retail sales data from the Canadian economy but was eventually unable to do so after the release of a very strong CPI data. The bulls had also attempted to break through yesterday but has failed from last week’s range highs.


The currency pair’s strong resistance and support barriers of 1.3060 and 1.3000 respectively has led the market to believe that the USD/CAD pair is in for some major uptrend and is evident of the importance of the support barrier with regards to the struggle between the pair’s bulls and bears. Since the bears have constantly failed to break through this pair, the pair’s bears are currently in full dominance of the USD/CAD. The USD/CAD was previously consolidating within the 1.3100 barrier but a surge in the value of the USD helped in boosting the currency pair following’s Trump’s statement that he will be adding up the country’s infrastructure spending. The pair eventually increased in value after oil prices somewhat dropped in value.


This drop in oil prices could cause trouble for the USD/CAD pair in the short and medium term since Canada is very reliant on oil prices. The pair’s bears could become seriously affected once the dollar strength and weak oil prices come together since this could trigger the pair to move significantly upwards.


There are no major news coming from the Canadian economy today but the pair could get some volatility from the US consumer confidence data and Preliminary GDP which will be released today. The USD/CAD could possibly consolidate within 1.3100-1.3200 points with a bullish undertone.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 28, 2017


The GBP/USD took a heavy hitting during the previous session as the pair’s bulls were unable to create a continuously good run for the pair since every time a bounce in the pair manifests, the pair immediately drops as it is met with major selloffs. There are still overshadowing concerns with the currency pair since the Brexit process is still ongoing, and this ensures that the GBP/USD pair will be unable to go higher for quite some time.


The GBP/USD pair was hit even more harder yesterday after rumors that Scotland is currently planning to implement another referendum in their favor in order to discern whether it would still be beneficial for them to continue becoming part of the UK. If this happens, then this would be disastrous for the UK economy since other parts of the UK might also be encouraged to do the same. This is probably the worst that could happen to the UK, especially since Scotland had initially voted to remain part of the European Union but was outvoted by the majority of UK members. But then further confirmation of this particular rumor never happened, and this caused the GBP/USD pair to bounce back from 1.2400 and is currently trading at just under 1.2450 points.


There are no major news releases expected from the UK today but the US will be releasing its Preliminary GDP data and consumer confidence data. The currency pair would most likely remain under pressure for today, with the 1.2500 barrier presenting a possibly limit to any kind of uptrend in the pair.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 3, 2017


The GBP/USD pair has been nursing its wounds during the past trading session as the currency pair is still at a loss on what it needs to do in order to propel its value higher up the chart. The sterling pound has been experience a lot of pressure this week, with the shadows of the ongoing Brexit process hanging over the currency, especially since it is still uncertain whether the impending talks between EU and UK leaders would go smoothly or otherwise. The invocation of Article 50 is drawing nearer and once the line is drawn, there will be no returning for both the European Union and the UK.


In addition to the pressure brought about by the Brexit, there have been also additional concerns that Scotland is planning to relieve itself from the UK, and though this has been nothing more than a rumor, it does not look like it’s going to die down any soon, and the USD is also undergoing a consistent rallying streak, another cause of trouble for the GBP/USD pair. The main reason behind the dollar strength is that the market is slowly getting used to Trump’s various eccentricities, and the Federal Reserve has also become increasingly hawkish, thereby cementing speculations that an interest rate hike is in the works.


The GBP/USD pair is expected to remain under pressure during today’s session. The UK is scheduled to release its services PMI data today but the market’s main focus would be Yellen’s speech at the New York session. The market will be monitoring whether Yellen will be giving out indications of a March rate hike, and if this is the case, then the dollar would possibly continue rallying and send the GBP/USD pair towards 1.2200 points.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 8, 2017


The EUR/USD pair continued with its ranging and consolidation movement for the second consecutive day, with this current trend expected to continue for the subsequent trading session as well. There are no major economic news releases happening within the international market which might influence the movement of the EUR/USD pair, and this is why the market has been incessantly seeing this ranging and consolidation.


However, this particular movement coming from the currency pair is also part of the pair’s preparation for the onslaught of important economic data which are expected to be released in the middle of this week, especially since these economic data would most likely induce a lot of unprecedented volatility in the EUR/USD pair. So until these data gets released in the market, it is highly likely that the currency pair would continue consolidating. The USD experienced some minor corrections throughout the course of yesterday’s trading session, and this has become evident in the state of the EUR/USD pair after the currency pair dropped slightly in value and is now trading at just over 1.0550 points. The pair is expected to maintain its hold on this particular barrier as more buys are expected to come in at this region. This could also cause the currency pair to move towards 1.0600 points and will continue consolidating for the rest of the trading session.


There are no major news releases expected from the European Union for today but the US will be releasing its ADP employment data later today. This employment data is usually touted as a precursor to the NFP report and although its importance is now being overlooked, it still serves as a necessary gauge on how the the NFP report would eventually pan out. Any fluctuations in this particular data are most likely to show in the NFP report as well.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 8, 2017


The GBP/USD pair continues to trade very weakly during the previous trading session. This could be initially attributed to the strengthening of the USD which was reflected across the board, but what has really affected the pound here is the fundamentals underlying the UK economy, as well as various uncertainties which is constantly putting pressure on the value of the GBP/USD pair.


Once the Article 50 gets invoked, the Brexit process is pretty much locked in, and this means that there would be several negotiations between EU and UK leaders immediately after the invocation. UK leaders are expected to be stricter with regards to EU trade access since the majority of them would like the UK to realize the several benefits that it would lose once the country finally becomes a separate nation from the European Union. This uncertainty as well as the tediousness of the Brexit process is likely to take its toll on the GBP/USD pair and this is starting to become more evident as the currency pair continues its weak trading stance, with the currency pair just hovering over 1.2200 points.


The UK will be releasing its yearly budget release today, and the country is expected to paint a pretty picture of their economy in order to boost public sentiment. This might give temporary resolve for the sterling pound but would eventually fizzle out as the fundamentals continue to put downward pressure on the state of the GBP/USD pair.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 8, 2017


The USD/CAD pair continues trading within a limited trading range near its range highs, which is the pair’s current trend ever since the start of the week. The stability of oil prices has helped the Canadian dollar maintain its current stance, but since the USD has been consistently regaining its strength, the bears are having difficulty in exceeding the bulls’ progress and this is why the currency pair is firmly in control, with the bulls dominating the USD/CAD pair.


The Canadian trade balance data was released yesterday which came in at a value of 0.8 billion CAD which is very good news for the economy. The trade balance data from the US was als released yesterday and this reading somewhat fell short of initial market expectations/ However, neither of these data had a significant impact on the value of the USD/CAD even though the US dollar is now bracing itself for the onslaught of economic data releases later this week. Both the US and Canada will be releasing its employment data this coming Friday and market players are now preparing for the expected increase in volatility once the data gets released into the market.


For today’s trading session, there no major news releases from the Canadian economy although the US will be releasing its ADP employment data and unless this shows a drastic shift in its economic readings, the USD/CAD pair would most likely continue its ranging and consolidation.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 14, 2017


The USD/CAD pair spent most of yesterday’s trading session on a mostly ranging and consolidating manner, with the currency pair consolidating within the 1.3400-1.3500 region due to the lack of significant economic events from both the US and the Canadian economy. The market is now on a monitoring stance particularly on the USD and this has been reflected in the lack of any kind of activity in the USD/CAD pair.


The market is currently waiting for the onslaught of the release of several economic data from the US tomorrow, with the most important release being the FOMC announcement where the central bank is expected to implement its first interest rate hike for the year. Aside from the FOMC announcement, the CPI data as well as the retail sales data will also be released tomorrow. The high expectations for an interest rate hike tomorrow has helped keep the USD/CAD pair to remain within its range highs. However, the market is not yet sure as to how much hawkishness will be needed for the USD bulls, and this has become somewhat problematic for the USD/CAD pair as the pair has difficulty calculating its move immediately after the FOMC data release.


If the statement from the central bank comes out as satisfyingly hawkish, then the USD could boost its strength and could help the USD/CAD bulls to challenge the sells located at the pair’s 1.3500 barrier. If the data comes out otherwise, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly retreat to its previous trading range. For today’s session, the US economy is expected to release its PPI data which is not expected to induce added volatility into the pair.