Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Andrea ForexMart, Feb 3, 2016.

  1. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Master Trader

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    USD/CAD Technical Analysis: October 17, 2017


    During the daytime trading on Monday, the American dollar traded sideways versus the Loonie dollar, followed by a break through the 1.25 handle. Eventually, the markets contained high volatility but the positive thing about this move is the reversed flow against the oil sector. The oil markets tend to rally as well as the U.S dollar but this appeared to be unusual which could give a negative sign for the CAD.


    The 1.25 region below is projected to continue its attractiveness for the price but there is a possibility for the rally to resume according to the skeptical actions by the Canadian dollar.

    A break over the 1.2250 mark even on the daily close will enable the market to keep on moving upwards or may be an attempt to reach the 1.2750 mark.


    The markets would certainly be volatile due to the instability of oil industry along with some back and forth movements. Considering the massive volume of volatility, it is much preferred to gradually establish a position.


    A break down underneath the 1.24 mark does not necessarily indicate a bearish tone again since dealing with the recent action seems difficult. While the markets would likely try to generate some kind of base. Moreover, the oil markets are moving nearer to the massive resistance which could further provide lots of bearish pressure towards the Loonies.


    Take note that the Bank of Canada increased its interest rate and suddenly mentioned that the rate hikes should be considered as automatic. With this regard, the market appears to completely turn around against the CAD.


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  2. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Master Trader

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 20, 2017


    The euro against the U.S. dollar surged higher during the Thursday session looking forward to the Brexit talks to get better. Although, there is no final decision yet and the process is still ongoing. Both statements of Merkel and U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has mentioned that there are progress and hinting that there are some deals to be halted in the next few months.


    This is a positive sign for the euro as it implies that there will be a good deal which is beneficial not only for the U.K. but also to the eurozone. The dollar proceeded with a minor correction during the first half of the day. The market has expectations to the tax reform bill in the U.S. which was delayed for some time that disturbs the market and resulted to a minor sell-off of the greenback until afternoon for the day. In the opening of the U.S. session, the stock market has gone steadily following a minor interruption as the market of its crashed back in 1987 referred as Black Monday. Since then, the dollar has grown stronger just a few hours after the tax reform bill has been approved.


    This led the way for future revisions which is a good move for the current U.S. administration under Trump’s leadership. It reflects that Trump has had a successful agreement along with with the Democrats which opens the door for more bills to be approved. In effect, this is a really good deal for the dollar which would be felt in the market throughout the course of trading. Hence, the EUR/USD is anticipated to proceed to decline for the day’s session.


    For today, there is no major news from the eurozone of from the U.S. Yet the dollar bulls will look out our for the proceedings in the tax reform bill that may strengthen the dollar for today.

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  3. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Master Trader

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    USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 23, 2017


    The U.S. dollar surged against the Japanese yen during the Friday trading session. It is mainly because of the hawkish sentiment from the candidates of the next Federal Reserve Chairman. It seems that the market favors the greenback more that makes opens opportunities when the price pulls back. Most likely, the next target would be above 114.50 which sets as the resistance level strongly positioned on long-term charts. This has been consolidating for a while and the price would probably rally in the upper channel is it breaks more than the 115 region. Hereinafter, there is a tendency for the price to move towards the 118 region in the succeeding weeks or even months.


    However, it may not be best to short this pair as it pulls backs since there are concerns in the lower boundary. The support level is found at 112 level and up to 113 level. If the stock market persists to climb higher, this will be have an impact to the pair. Hence, traders should be avoid shorting this pair unless the price breaks down lower towards 111 region. From here on, there is a tendency for the pair to turn around and negatively affect trading. However, in times that the pair would rise, trader could take advantage by adding positions and incrementally gain profits.


    Overall, it is anticipated to have high volatility and numerous buyers which could highly lead to a rally. However, there will a lot of noise present that makes it ideal to trade this pair in smaller positions weighing the current condition and future moves. Ultimately, traders should not neglect the presence of noise in trading the USD/JPY pair.
     
  4. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Master Trader

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    GBP/USD Technical Analysis: November 2, 2017


    The British pound against the U.S. dollar dropped for a bit during the start of the Wednesday. Soon after, the price bounced up towards the 1.33 level. This pulled back from the said level and tried to reach the level of 1.3250, which has been the focus of sterling traders. Overall, the market should proceed to move higher as it was able to achieve reach a higher level prior to that. Choppiness will also persist in the market and the market will most likely attempt to reach the level higher than 1.35. The 1.3650 level will still be the main resistance level for long-term positions. However, if this area is surpassed, the market could further go up for a longer term.


    For now, it is best to take advantage of buying in the lows. If the traders successfully break the level of 1.3250, an option is to wait as this could still go down towards the level of 1.32 and if it breaks down from there, it could further go down to 1.31. It would not be long before value seeking traders would come in cases of pullbacks since there is a strong bullish pressure.


    There is a possibility for the uptrend to stop when it breaks lower than the level of 1.30. Hence, this makes small trades to be the ideal position in this trade. Positions should be put on hold until another successful breakout occurs above the level of 1.3650. From here on, this serves as an investment and would be determined through the patience of traders in the current situation.
     
  5. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Master Trader

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    GBP/USD Technical Analysis: November 6, 2017


    The pound-dollar pair rallied significantly throughout the week and broke the 1.3250 level above. Howbeit, this region provided plenty of resistance while BOE Governor Mark Carney proposed that the central bank does not have any plans to increase its interest rates sooner or later. Hence, the recent rate hike can be considered singular as the British currency had an extreme roll over to create a shooting star.


    The ascending trendline below is expected to offer support and underneath the 1.30 area serves as an essential “floor” in the upward trend. A cut through beneath that mark would likely open doors for good selling opportunities moving forward, otherwise, we could reach the 1.25 level below. It appears that comments of the Bank Governor were highly upsetting more than we can imagine. We could see the effect of Carney’s remarks the following week.


    On the other hand, the ability to break over the top of the shooting star would allow the market to drive towards the 1.35 handle, either way, to the 1.3650 region eventually. This is the area where the market had gapped downwards subsequent to the shocking vote to depart from the European Union. This probably prompted a massive bullish indication for the entire currency pairs. Breaking on top of this level would push the market near the 1.50 above, which is a major level included in the longer-term charts.


    In any case, the market seems to be going through a significant inflection point. Therefore, longer-term players should watch it play out all throughout the trading week and need to see the weekly close. Basically, a significant move made by the market for this week would show a longer-term trade which is greatly anticipated.
     
  6. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Master Trader

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 8, 2017


    The EURUSD pair had a dipped again during the early trade behind weaker than expected production figures from Germany, the data also declined in September. The retail PMI in the European region dropped but retail sales further softened. Meanwhile, Chain Store Sales in the United States had bounced back in the recent week and the Loan Officers survey of U.S. presented standards easing.


    Moreover, the euro-dollar pair drove lower and tested the 1.5050 level.The pair bounced back in the late session and failed to reacquire the 1.16 handle. The resistance can be found at 1.1722 region near the 20-day moving average. The prices resumed forming a head and shoulder reversal pattern with the neckline with a gapped at 1.1660 zone. The target support can be estimated by subtracting the neckline above the 1.1160 head. The momentum sustained its negative stance. The MACD histogram prints in the red, showing a descending trajectory towards a lower exchange rate.


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  7. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Master Trader

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 10, 2017


    The single European currency paired with the U.S. dollar drove higher during Thursday session since the trade surplus in Germany has expanded, while the U.S. initial claims rebounded. Moreover, the German growth is predicted to overcome its previous outlook as the inflation is projected to remain muted capping the upside in the pair.


    The EURUSD had moved upwards and pushed back on top of the 1.1625 level near around the 10-day moving average, which serves as a support in the short-term. Further support hits the 1.1550 weekly lows. A close over the 1.17 region could possibly negate the formation and triggered consolidation. The negative momentum was seen declining as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator is printing in the red, linked with an ascending trajectory that gives signs of consolidation.


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  8. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Master Trader

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 16, 2017


    The euro against the U.S. dollar rallied higher during the beginning of the trade session for five succeeding days and being tested for a 1-month high. The market failed to maintain the current rate as the greenback gathered momentum amid a risk aversion situation. The U.S. data came out positively even better than anticipated. The retail sales data came in higher as well as the CPI report, which supported the U.S. yields and raised the rate of the dollar.


    The EUR/USD climbed higher as it reaches close to the October high at the level of 1.1858. The exchange rate has reached once again the 50-day moving average at the level of 1.1786, which is currently the short-term support in the trend. Additional support was found close to the 10-day moving average at 1.1663. The impetus of the currency pair has been moving at a good pace as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) index initiating a buy signal. This happened as the MACD line, which is the 12-day exponential moving average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA, crossed higher than the MACD signal line found at the 9-day exponential moving average of the MACD line.
     
  9. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Master Trader

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 21, 2017


    The single European currency paired with the US Dollar descended and resumed to create a mini-bull flag formation, however, the fundamental and political events coincided against the EURUSD yesterday. The German PPI came in weaker than expected while the failed plan of Merkel to generate a coalition placed pressure to the EUR/USD.


    The currency pair currently trades sideways and stayed around the 1.1800 region, after being pushed downwards amid earlier trading hours to test the 1.1704 support area close to the 10-day moving average. The short-term resistance entered the mark 1.1771 around the 50- day moving average. The positive momentum declined as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black. The trajectory of the indicator appears to be negative which implies consolidation towards the pair. The RSI also traded sideways showing a reading of 52 fixed in the middle of the neutral range. It further suggests consolidation.


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  10. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Master Trader

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 22, 2017


    The EUR/USD pair was traded in a narrow range during the shortened week because of the holiday that affects both America and Japan on Thursday. The dollar gained momentum at the beginning following a positive home sales report that boosted the U.S. greater than 2 percent.


    The U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity index rose in October as well as the Retail store sales in the past week which is due to the busy holiday season.


    The euro major pair rebounded at the support level close to the 10-day Moving Average at 1.1718 which stays afloat higher than the neckline of the head and shoulder pattern. Although, it was not able to initiate liquidation for long-term. There is a resistance found close to the


    November highs at 1.1860. The forward momentum is declining as the MACD histogram print is in black with a southward trajectory which could lead to the consolidation of the pair.


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  11. Andrea ForexMart

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 27, 2017


    Most of the economies appeared to have an optimistic situation, however, political concerns that affect Europe especially the argument on German politics that heightened concerns over the nearing elections in Hungary, Italy, and Spain. Nevertheless, the Brexit negotiations are completely on track and conducted a significant move forward. According to reports, the United Kingdom offered further deal to clear the way for the European Council to comply with the initial transition and trade talks on December 14-15 summit.


    The long transitional period and initial clarification towards the future relationship between Britain and the European Union seems to be essential for business plans and investments to increase. The EUR/USD pair broke out as Brexit talks could possibly advance and pushes the rate higher and plans to test resistance at 1.2092 level around September highs. The support is at 1.2092 region near the 10-day moving average. The positive momentum moved upwards as the relative strength index (RSI) broke out and climbed higher. It prints a reading of 69 which is located on the upper end of the neutral range heading to a higher exchange rate for the eurodollar. The momentum showed by the MACD histogram trailed upwards as the indicator prints in the black with an ascending trajectory which indicates to higher rates of prices.
     
  12. Andrea ForexMart

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    USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 28, 2017


    The American dollar weakened versus the Japanese yen throughout the trading session yesterday, while the downward pressure continues. The path towards the 111.50 zone was already cleared and there is a possibility that the market will remain moving down near the bottom area of the overall consolidation felt in the past few months, in case of an extension towards 108 handle. This could possibly true since the US Congress cannot even establish substantial tax bills.


    Moreover, it is preferred to impose a buy signal until a break on top of the 112 level on a daily close unless a supportive trend formed around the 108 handle, which is regarded previously as significant and supportive. The market would likely to make a reversal and the US Congress would be able to completely perform its task.


    Meanwhile, the current situation can be defined as some sort of “sell the rallies”, as the greenback softened across the board. The JPY remains to be considered as safety currency and a cautious move can be witnessed given enough time. As shown in the hourly chart, a shooting star begins to form at the 111.25 mark which is a previous support and expected to be resistive at this moment. A cut through at the 110 level could possibly the next move and descended beneath the 110 region that nearly open the way through the 108 handle. Generally, a lot of volatility is predicted to continue, however, the general downward pressure remains to be a situation in the market that shows extreme choppiness.


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  13. Andrea ForexMart

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 29, 2017


    The Euro paired against the U.S. dollar declined once again since the upsurge during the Friday trading session. The German IFO came out better-than-expected was counterbalanced by a steadfast consumer confidence which pushed the OECD with the tendency that overestimated the potential growth of Europe.


    The EUR/USD pair declined as it tested the support level close to the 10-day moving average at 1.1818. The resistance level reached close to the September highs of 1.2092. The momentum persists in a good condition as shown in the MACD histogram where the print is black with an upward sloping trajectory that will most likely lead to higher exchange quotes. The head and shoulder reversal pattern was not successful as the peak reached at a neckline close to 1.1660. The latest upsurge has contradicted the reversal.
     
  14. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Master Trader

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 1, 2017


    The EUR/USD pair rose because of strong yields as it gained strength after inflation from France and a positive Chinese PMI manufacturing data. The Eurozone inflation came our dovish which resulted in a higher euro major currency pair.


    The EUR/USD pair rally as it bounced to the support area close to the 10-day moving average at 1.1836. The resistance was found near the weekly highs at 1.1961. There is a neutral momentum seen in the trend as the MACD was printed in black with a flat trajectory that could lead to a consolidation. The RSI index climbed higher because of the positive impetus in the market.


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  15. Andrea ForexMart

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 6, 2017


    The European currency edged downwards while the yields declined and the American dollar was able to conduct further progress. This happened after the release of a weaker than anticipated result of the European Retail Sales data. Moreover, the Services PMI in the euro region had increased as the US trade deficit expanded that could lessen the overall growth in the U.S. economy.


    The eurodollar pair descended during the trading session on Tuesday and fell near the support at 1.1866 level around the 10-day moving average. The current support highlighted the 1.1757 mark beside the 50-day moving average. Further support lies at 1.1630 near the ascending trend line. Additionally, the momentum became negative and at the same time, the MACD histogram formed a crossover sell signal. The moving average convergence divergence index prints in the red, showing a descending sloping trajectory that moves to a lower exchange rate.
     
  16. Andrea ForexMart

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 13, 2017


    The EURUSD edged downwards as the German investor confidence came in weaker than predicted results, along with the robust figures of American inflation data that reinforced the US dollar and put pressure on the single European currency. Small business confidence in the United States also showed secured position combined with strong U.S. chain store sales.


    Originally, the euro-dollar pair trailed lower on Tuesday and drove upwards to test the resistance at 1.1819 area near the 10-day moving average. The support of the pair touched the 1.1675 region around the ascending trend line. While prices generate a topping formation and market participant anticipates for the Fed decision as the central bank is highly expected to increase interest rates in the US by 25 basis points. The momentum became negative and the MACD indicator created a crossover sell signal. The moving average convergence divergence further prints in the red with a descending trajectory which implies for a lower exchange of rate.


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  17. Andrea ForexMart

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    AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 22, 2017


    The Aussie dollar traded sideways initially amid Thursday’s trading session, however, it moved higher following a weaker numbers of American GDP. This further caused the greenbacks to decline while providing a slight increase towards the Australian dollar during the day.


    Nevertheless, the AUD/USD pair trades in a low-volume at the margin during the day and traders are concerned to the approaching holidays in contrast to the currency markets.


    It can be assumed that a break down under the 0.7625 area will push the market downwards reaching the 0.75 handle. It appears that the AUD will have some difficulty in moving higher to the upside, as a result, sellers manage to conduct a return. Perhaps, the market is easier to short at higher levels, but for now, it is suggested to stay on the sidelines until the volumes return.


    There are some resistance barriers throughout the way which could make a difficult course to drive upwards. Hence, buying the commodity-linked pair seems to be under pressure. On the other hand, there’s no any shorting opportunity due to rally attempts by the market. The ability to roll over will push the market quickly, but it is impossible to see until after the New Year’s Day. Therefore, the market is expected to be difficult to deal with.
     
  18. Andrea ForexMart

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    GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 28, 2017


    The British pound against the U.S. dollar climbs higher in the past 24 hours due to the weakness of the dollar that boosts other currencies against the dollar. This is presumed to persist for short-term with the incoming long weekend as the New Year approaches which would cause a dull trading in the market. Continue reading at https://goo.gl/jwfU5K



    USD/JPY Technical Analysis: December 28, 2017


    It is suggested that the American should resume its rally versus the Japanese yen within a specified time and also in case of the bullish sentiment by stock markets. This usually pushes the markets towards a higher position. The USD/JPY and the S&P 500 had a special correlation which should be kept in mind. Continue reading at https://goo.gl/GGc2V6


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  19. Andrea ForexMart

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 3, 2018


    The Euro against the U.S. dollar climbed higher testing the resistance levels because of the exceedingly strong results of the manufacturing PMI following hints of the ECB meeting to end the quantitative easing in 2018. The European Central Bank has adjusted to the situation but with a steady inflation and progressive growth propelled the euro at a much higher rate.


    The EUR/USD pair reached close to the September high at 1.2092 but was unsuccessful in breaking this rate. A strong euro has put pressure on the European stocks putting corporations into the lesser advantage against their competitors. The support level is found close to the 10-day Moving Average at 1.1920. The MACD histogram has been positive as it is printed in black with an upward sloping trajectory which could lead to a much higher Forex rate. The RSI indicator also gives an increasing positive momentum although the current rate is at 71. This is much higher than the overbought level of 70, which hints the possibility for a correction.


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  20. Andrea ForexMart

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    NZD/USD Technical Analysis: January 8, 2018


    The New Zealand dollar was able to break higher upon the opening session on Monday, however, took a reversal throughout the week to move lower and fill the gap. In line with this, a sufficient support was seen and bounced to the upside. The day closed with a slight formation of a hammer pattern, which implies that buyers will return to the market.


    It is possible that the Kiwi dollar will resume driving near the top of the overall consolidation zone, marked on the chart around 0.75 area. The 0.68 region below is considered highly supportive and basically the “floor” in the NZD/USD pair.


    It remains to be seen prior shorting this market despite the noticeable breakdown underneath the bottom of the hammer for the week appears to be negative. But 0.70 level seems to be supportive which requires some time before taking long positions.


    In case that commodity markets would rally in general, the upward trend would likely to continue. However, the current situation is slightly overbought which could possibly be followed by a pullback that should only offer value going forward. This is because the American currency was very weak versus other currencies. The market remains to have plenty of noise but a significant amount of bullish pressure is expected in order to continue moving forward. The highs will be tested again and will eventually break out.


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