Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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USD/CHF Falls to Two-Week Low

This morning, the USD/CHF exchange rate slipped below 0.7944 for the first time since 1 October, as demand for safe-haven assets intensified — a trend also reflected in yesterday’s record gold price above $4,200.

The traditionally stable Swiss franc is strengthening amid rising global uncertainty and risk aversion:
→ In Japan, the upcoming prime ministerial election could significantly impact monetary policy, while France faces ongoing political turmoil.
→ In the United States, the government shutdown continues, and traders are closely watching developments around a potential trade deal with China, possibly to be discussed during an expected meeting between the two countries’ leaders.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Earnings Season Kicks Off with Strong Bank Results

On 3 October, we noted growing optimism in equity markets ahead of the corporate earnings season. That sentiment was validated yesterday as several major banks reported results that exceeded analysts’ expectations, helping the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) rebound from last Friday’s sell-off.

Morgan Stanley (MS) led the rally, with its shares hitting a new all-time high above $166 following a robust quarterly report:

→ Revenue surged to a record $18.2 billion, up 18% year-on-year.

→ Earnings per share (EPS): actual $2.80, vs forecast $2.10.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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What Is Trendline Breakout Trading?

Trendline breakouts play an important role in price chart analysis. However, not every break of a trendline carries the same weight. Some may signal genuine shifts, while others prove temporary. In this article, we will explore how to assess, confirm, and trade trendline breakouts while trying to keep risk under control.

Understanding Trendlines
Although you know what trendlines are, let’s briefly go over the subject. Trendlines are tools used in technical analysis to visualise the direction of price movements. Drawing accurate trendlines involves selecting the appropriate highs and lows to connect, so they provide a clear representation of the prevailing trend. According to the established rules, there should be at least two highs/lows to draw a strong trendline. The more points you connect, the more solid the line is supposed to be.

There are trendlines in forex, stock, commodity, index, and cryptocurrency* charts. Still, trendlines on charts of assets experiencing less price volatility may be more solid.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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EUR/CAD Hits 16-Year High

Charts show that the euro strengthened against the Canadian dollar on Thursday, with the pair climbing above 1.6460 for the first time since spring 2009, when the world was still reeling from the global financial crisis.

The current weakness of the Canadian dollar is being influenced by several factors:

→ Trade relations with the United States – according to media reports, some Canadian industries such as steel and automotive manufacturing are facing competitive disadvantages under the current agreement.

→ Oil prices have fallen to a five-month low, partly due to expectations surrounding a potential meeting between the US and Russian presidents. As we noted on 13 October, the XTI/USD exchange rate could drift towards $55 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the euro has benefited from the softening of the US dollar. Notably, the DXY index has turned lower from a key resistance level — the upper boundary of the channel identified in our 9 October analysis.

However, an examination of the EUR/CAD chart suggests that the current upward momentum may be losing steam.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Coinbase (COIN) Shares Fall for Fifth Consecutive Day

As shown on the Coinbase Global (COIN) chart, the company’s share price has dropped below $330, marking a 17% decline from this month’s high.

Bearish sentiment took hold last Friday after Donald Trump floated the idea of imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese goods:
→ Since then, the cryptocurrency market has struggled to find support.
→ Today, BTC/USD fell below $106,000 for the first time since early July.

COIN shares look set to extend their sequence of five consecutive bearish daily candles, as broader equity markets remain under pressure amid reports of losses at several regional US banks — a situation that some analysts are already comparing to the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in 2023.

The Coinbase (COIN) price chart provides further important insight.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Recover, Are Gains Just Getting Started?

AUD/USD is attempting a recovery wave from 0.6440. NZD/USD is also correcting losses and might recover if there is a clear move above 0.5760.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today
- The Aussie Dollar found support near 0.6440 and is now recovering against the US Dollar.
- There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6490 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
- NZD/USD is attempting a recovery wave above 0.5700.
- There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.5720 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair dipped from well above 0.6600. The Aussie Dollar declined below 0.6500, but the bulls were active near 0.6440 against the US Dollar.

A low was formed near 0.6440, and the pair is now correcting losses. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the 0.6612 swing high to the 0.6440 low. There was also a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6490.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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S&P 500 Index Shows Elevated Volatility

On the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the ATR indicator with standard settings has not fallen below the 30 mark, signalling higher current market volatility compared to previous periods. Traders’ decisions are being influenced by the ongoing government shutdown, developments around a potential US-China tariff deal, and an increasingly active earnings season. Market sentiment has also been shaped by renewed concerns over regional bank stability and profit-taking in AI-related stocks.

Looking ahead, the new week is also expected to bring heightened volatility, as:

→ US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are set to meet in the coming days, paving the way for a potential meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi later this month.

→ Attention will also turn to quarterly results from Netflix, Coca-Cola, Tesla, IBM, and Intel. With key US economic data releases suspended due to the government shutdown, investors are likely to look to corporate earnings for direction.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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XTI/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Prices Fall to Yearly Lows

As shown on the XTI/USD chart, WTI crude is trading below $57 today, with the 2025 low sitting near $55. Several factors are currently weighing on oil prices:

→ Uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade deal — the world’s two largest oil consumers — continues to cloud the outlook for global growth and crude demand.

→ Increased output from OPEC+ members has added further pressure, with the IEA last week raising its forecast for a global oil surplus.

→ A decline in the risk premium following the peace agreement in the Middle East has also reduced support for oil prices.

So, what could happen next?

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Market Insights with Gary Thomson: Canada, UK & US Inflation, UK Retail Sales, Earnings Reports


In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events and market trends, shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into financial markets to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!

In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson unpacks the strategic implications of the week’s most critical events driving global markets.

Key topics covered in this episode:
— Canada’s Inflation Rate
— UK Inflation Rate
— UK Retail Sales
— US Inflation Rate
— Corporate Earnings Reports

Gain insights to strengthen your trading knowledge.




Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

Disclaimer: This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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10 Currencies That Are Considered the Weakest in Africa

Currencies reflect the health of a nation’s economy, and several African nations continue to grapple with severe depreciation. From dependence on commodity exports to political unrest and chronic inflation, each case tells a different story of economic struggle.

This FXOpen article examines what are considered to be the lowest currencies in Africa, highlighting the structural challenges behind their weakness and the risks they face in global markets.

The List of 10 Currencies That Are Considered the Weakest in Africa
Currency weakness in Africa stems from many different pressures, including inflation, external debt, reliance on imports, and fragile governance. Each country faces a unique mix of structural challenges that influence exchange rate performance and investor confidence.

In the sections below, we look at the top 10 currencies that are considered the weakest in Africa, exploring the economic and political forces that drive depreciation. To provide consistency, the US dollar serves as the benchmark that offers direct comparisons of how these currencies trade on the global market.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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What Are Falling Knives in Trading?

You’ve probably heard the saying “never catch a falling knife” — but what does it really mean in trading? A falling knife typically reflects panic in the markets, driven by negative news, poor earnings, or broader economic uncertainty. The phrase warns against buying an asset that’s plummeting in price, as trying to determine the exact bottom can be both risky and costly. Let’s explore what drives these moves, the risks they carry, and how to approach them with caution.

Understanding the Falling Knife Pattern
A falling knife pattern reflects a significant rapid drop in an asset’s price, including stocks, commodities, forex pairs, indices, cryptocurrencies*, and more. This situation is often driven by negative news, poor earnings reports, or broader market sell-offs.

To identify a falling knife, traders consider several characteristics. Firstly, the decline is steep and sudden, typically marked by large bearish candlesticks that may appear as a large engulfing candle on a higher timeframe. Secondly, the volume often increases as the price falls, indicating panic selling. Thirdly, technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) might show oversold conditions, suggesting the asset is undervalued in the short term.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Apple (AAPL) Shares Hit an All-Time High

On 26 September, we noted that Apple (AAPL) shares were nearing a record peak. Less than a month later, that forecast has materialised: according to the chart, AAPL surged more than 4% yesterday, surpassing its December 2024 high. This marks:
→ a new all-time record;
→ a return to second place by market capitalisation (Apple has overtaken Microsoft, while Nvidia remains in first position).

Why Are Apple Shares Rising?

→ Strong sales figures. Counterpoint Research reported that sales of the new iPhone 17 series in the US and China during the first ten days were 14% higher than those of the iPhone 16 last year. Analysts note that the base model offers significant improvements at the same price, encouraging consumers to upgrade.

→ Analyst forecasts. Loop Capital not only raised its rating to Buy (with a target price of $315) but also declared the start of a “long-awaited upgrade cycle”. In their view, this is not a short-term surge but the beginning of sustained growth in shipments expected to continue until 2027.

Optimism is also fuelled by anticipation of Apple’s upcoming earnings report and the festive shopping season, which could further accelerate iPhone 17 sales.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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USD/JPY Analysis: Yen May Stabilise Following Prime Minister’s Election

According to media reports, conservative politician Sanae Takaichi has been elected Japan’s first female Prime Minister. As we noted on 7 October, she is a supporter of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Abenomics strategy, aimed at stimulating the economy through aggressive fiscal spending and ultra-loose monetary policy — a factor that fuelled the sharp A→B rally to an eight-month high.

Meanwhile, the most likely candidate for the position of Finance Minister is Satsuki Katayama, a former Minister for Regional Revitalisation, who has previously expressed support for a stronger yen.

Fluctuations on the USD/JPY chart reflect the uncertainty traders currently face as they attempt to gauge the future direction of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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The Butterfly Pattern: Idea and Application

The butterfly pattern is one of the most recognised harmonic formations in technical analysis. Built around Fibonacci ratios, it provides traders with a structured way to spot potential market reversals. Unlike some patterns that complete within an initial price swing, the butterfly extends beyond it, often marking areas of exhaustion.

This article breaks down the idea and application of the butterfly pattern in trading, explaining its structure, uses, strengths, and how it compares with related patterns.

What Is the Butterfly Pattern?
The butterfly pattern is a harmonic reversal pattern built around Fibonacci measurements. Traders look for it when price forms a specific four-leg sequence, labelled X-A, A-B, B-C, and C-D. Unlike some harmonic patterns that complete within the original range, the butterfly extends beyond the starting point, making it distinct.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Market Analysis: Gold Dips From Highs As WTI Crude Oil Attempts Rebound

Gold price started a downside correction from $4,380. WTI Crude oil is now attempting to recover after sliding toward $56.00.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Prices Analysis Today
- Gold price climbed higher toward the $4,380 zone before there was a sharp decline against the US Dollar.
- It traded below a bullish trend line with support at $4,300 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
- WTI Crude oil prices extended losses below the $60.00 support zone.
- It cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at $57.50 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price climbed above $4,200. The price even spiked above $4,300 before the bears appeared.

A high was formed near $4,380 before there was a fresh decline below a bullish trend line with support at $4,300. There was a move below the $4,200 pivot level. The bears even pushed the price below $4,120 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Correction Ends: European Currencies Lose Ground

The euro and the pound resumed their decline after a brief recovery, remaining under pressure from both fundamental and political factors. Market participants noted rising uncertainty amid ongoing debates in the United States over the extended government shutdown and persistent geopolitical tensions. These developments continue to support demand for the US dollar and limit any meaningful rebound in European currencies.

Investors’ attention today will focus on macroeconomic releases from the United Kingdom and the euro area. From London, inflation data (CPI, PPI, RPI) will provide further insight into the Bank of England’s next policy steps. In the eurozone, trade balance figures and speeches by European Central Bank officials, including President Christine Lagarde, are expected to influence market expectations regarding the timing of future rate adjustments.

Later in the day, investors will also look to US data — weekly crude and gasoline inventories, along with mortgage lending statistics. While some of these indicators are of secondary importance, they could still affect short-term EUR/USD and GBP/USD movements, particularly amid elevated volatility and ongoing budget discussions in Washington.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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General Motors (GM) Shares Hit All-Time High

As shown on the General Motors (GM) stock chart:
→ During yesterday’s intraday session, the share price climbed above $67.40, surpassing the previous record high set in January 2022.
→ GM was among the top performers on the stock market, rising by around 15%.

The sharp rally followed the company’s strong third-quarter results:
→ Revenue: $48.6 billion (versus analysts’ forecast of $45.0 billion).
→ Earnings per share: $2.80 (consensus forecast: $2.28).
→ Vehicle sales: 710,000 units in Q3, up 8% year-on-year.

Moreover, General Motors Co. delivered an upbeat outlook, stating that continued business optimisation and its decision to scale back electric vehicle production should help improve financial performance in the year ahead.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Silver Price Falls Below $50

According to the XAG/USD chart, silver has fallen below the $50 mark after setting a historic high on 17 October, when the price briefly climbed above $54.40 for the first time.

Since then, the market has turned lower:
→ Silver formed a bearish ABCD pattern and broke below the key $50 psychological level.
→ A similar move occurred in gold, which dropped this week from around $4,375 to nearly $4,000 per ounce.

As many media outlets have noted:
→ The decline in precious metals appears to be a correction within a broader uptrend;
→ The fundamental outlook remains strong.

However, the aggressive nature of the sell-off raises concern.
→ On one hand, the drop may have been driven by an overheated rally and heavily leveraged long positions.
→ On the other, the speed of the decline suggests the autumn metals rally could be nearing exhaustion.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Shooting Star Pattern: Basics and Trading Approaches

Candlestick patterns can reveal a lot about market sentiment and potential price movements. One pattern that often catches traders’ attention is the shooting star. Recognisable by its small body and long upper shadow, the shooting star trading pattern signals that buyers tried to push prices higher but sellers regained control, hinting at a possible reversal. This article will delve into what a shooting star pattern is, how to spot it on a chart, its associated trading strategies, and its distinctions from similar patterns.

What Is a Shooting Star?
A shooting star in trading is a bearish candlestick pattern that can signify a potential reversal of an uptrend.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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What Is a Dead Cat Bounce Effect?

Markets can trick even experienced traders. A dead cat bounce describes a short-lived recovery during a prolonged market downtrend. While it may seem like a rebound, it often precedes further declines. This article delves into what a dead cat bounce is, its causes, how to identify it, and strategies for trading it.

What Is the Dead Cat Bounce Pattern?
A dead cat bounce is a temporary recovery in the price of a falling asset, followed by a continuation of the downtrend. This phenomenon occurs in all types of financial markets, including stocks, forex, and crypto*, and can mislead traders into believing that a market or asset has started to recover, only to see prices fall again.

The term "dead cat bounce" originates from the saying that "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height." In financial terms, this means that a sharp decline is often followed by a brief, albeit false, recovery. For example, during the 2008 financial crisis, many stocks experienced dead cat bounces as they briefly recovered before continuing their downward trajectory.

Identifying a dead cat bounce requires careful analysis. For instance, in a dead cat bounce in a crypto* asset, a sudden 10% rise might appear promising. However, if this increase is followed by another decline surpassing the recent lows, it confirms a dead cat bounce.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.