Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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EUR/USD Rises to 2.5-Week High Ahead of ECB Meeting


Today at 15:15 GMT+3, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its interest rate decision, followed by a press conference at 15:45 GMT+3. According to Forex Factory, the main refinancing rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.15% after seven consecutive cuts.

In anticipation of these events, the EUR/USD exchange rate has risen above the 1.1770 level for the first time since 7 July. Bullish sentiment is also being supported by expectations of a potential trade agreement between the United States and the European Union. According to Reuters, both sides are reportedly moving towards a deal that may include a 15% base tariff on EU goods entering the US, with certain exemptions.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Three of the Most Prominent Scalping Strategies in Forex

Scalping in the forex market is characterised by executing rapid and frequent trades within very short periods of time. This trading style requires fast decision-making, precise risk management, and keen market awareness to spot emerging opportunities. In this article, we describe some popular strategies in forex scalping and discuss their application.

The Scalping Method in Forex Trading

The core principle behind scalping is to make numerous small profits, exploiting short-term movements rather than waiting for significant price swings. When scalping, the focus is on very short timeframes and the strategies are designed on 1-, 5-, or 15-minute charts. Still, some traders start from longer-term charts to get the general context about the overall price direction and to identify support and resistance levels. Then, they switch to a shorter time frame chart to specify the actual strategy and determine entry/exit points.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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The DAX Index Is Losing Its Bullish Momentum

At the end of May, we noted that the German stock index DAX 40 (Germany 40 mini on FXOpen) was exhibiting significantly stronger performance compared to other global equity indices. However, we also highlighted the 24,100 level as a strong resistance zone.

Two months have passed, and the chart now suggests that bearish signals are intensifying.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Alphabet (GOOGL) Stock Chart Analysis Following Earnings Release

Earlier this week, we highlighted the prevailing bullish sentiment in the market ahead of Alphabet’s (GOOGL) earnings report, noting that:
→ an ascending channel had formed;
→ the psychological resistance level at $200 was of particular importance.

The earnings release confirmed the market’s optimism, as the company reported better-than-expected profits, driven by strong performance in both its advertising and cloud segments.

In his statement, CEO Sundar Pichai noted that AI is positively impacting all areas of the business, delivering strong momentum.

The company is expected to allocate $75 billion this year to expand its AI capabilities.

As a result, Alphabet (GOOGL) opened yesterday’s trading session with a bullish gap (as indicated by the arrow). However, as the session progressed, the price declined significantly, fully closing the gap.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Market Analysis: Gold and Oil Prices Ease – Market Awaits Fresh Catalysts

Gold price started a fresh decline below $3,380. WTI crude oil is also down and remains at risk of more losses below $64.60.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price climbed higher toward the $3,430 zone before there was a sharp decline against the US Dollar.
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $3,350 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• WTI crude oil price continued to decline below the $66.00 support zone.
• It traded below a connecting bullish trend line with support at $65.60 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen, the price climbed above the $3,380 resistance. The price even spiked above $3,400 before the bears appeared.

A high was formed near $3,432 before there was a fresh decline. There was a move below the $3,380 support level. The bears even pushed the price below the $3,350 support and the 50-hour simple moving average.

It tested the $3,325 zone. A low was formed near $3,325 and the price is now showing bearish signs. There was a minor recovery wave towards the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3,433 swing high to the $3,325 low.

However, the bears are active below $3,342. Immediate resistance is near $3,350. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $3,350.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Europe and the US Sign Trade Agreement, EUR/USD Declines

The past weekend was marked by the official signing of a trade agreement between the United States and Europe, as announced by US President Donald Trump and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen following their meeting in Scotland.

According to reports, the agreement is based on a 15% baseline tariff on goods exported from Europe to the United States, with certain exemptions. As previously reported, a trade agreement with a 15% baseline tariff had earlier been concluded between the US and Japan.

According to President Trump:
→ under no circumstances did he allow the baseline tariff for Europe to fall below 15%;
→ the European Union committed to investing in the US economy, purchasing weapons, and importing energy resources.

The financial markets’ reaction to this news is noteworthy:
→ European stock indices opened the week with a bullish gap, reflecting relief that previously feared tariffs of up to 30% did not materialise;
→ the EUR/USD pair is exhibiting bearish momentum this morning.

Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD Chart

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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What Is SMT Divergence, and How Can Traders Use It?

SMT divergence—short for Smart Money Technique divergence—is a market analysis concept used to identify price discrepancies between correlated financial instruments. Rooted in the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology, SMT divergence is widely interpreted as a sign of institutional involvement or inefficiencies in the market. By spotting divergence in price action across related assets, traders can anticipate shifts in momentum and potential reversal points.

In this article, we’ll explain the mechanics of SMT divergence, how to identify it in live markets, and how traders use it as part of a broader institutional trading strategy.

Defining SMT Divergence
SMT divergence occurs when two or more correlated instruments—such as major currency pairs, indices, or equities—fail to make new highs or lows in unison. For example, if one instrument creates a higher high while the other does not, this divergence may signal weakening momentum or distribution/accumulation by institutional players.

This concept is integral to ICT trading frameworks, which emphasise the behaviour of "smart money"—large institutional entities that typically move the market. SMT divergence highlights where their activity may be causing inefficiencies between related markets, offering potential entry signals for retail traders following institutional footprints.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Shares Surpass $160 for the First Time

Shares of Palantir Technologies (PLTR), a company specialising in big data analytics software, have continued their impressive performance. Following an extraordinary rally of approximately 340% in 2024, the stock remains among the top performers in the equity market:

→ since the beginning of 2025, the share price has climbed by approximately 113%;
→ on Friday, PLTR set another all-time high, with the share price exceeding $160 for the first time.

What Is Driving Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Higher?

The bullish sentiment is underpinned by the following factors:

→ Major partnerships. Among the contracts are an agreement with the US Army to develop a command system, collaboration with Accenture Federal Services, and many others.

→ Positive analyst outlooks, highlighting Palantir’s unique growth model and high margins. Analysts at Piper Sandler have set a price target of $170 for PLTR, while Wedbush recently raised their target to $160.

In addition, investors are looking ahead with optimism to the upcoming quarterly report scheduled for 4 August, which is expected to reinforce Palantir’s leadership position in a market increasingly driven by AI technologies.

Technical Analysis of Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Chart

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Analytical NVDA Stock Forecasts from 2025 to 2030

NVIDIA (NVDA) has established itself as a cornerstone of the global tech sector, leading advancements in artificial intelligence, data center infrastructure, and high-performance computing. Given the company’s strategic positioning in high-growth sectors, NVDA stock has become a focal point for institutional and retail investors seeking long-term exposure to AI-driven infrastructure.

In this article, we examine the key drivers, sector trends, and risk factors that could influence NVIDIA’s future stock performance and provide analytical forecasts for NVDA stock through 2025, 2026, and extending to 2030.

NVIDIA’s Price History
NVIDIA’s stock price has undergone an extraordinary transformation since its early days, moving from a graphics pioneer to a tech powerhouse. Understanding its price history offers valuable insight into the key milestones that have shaped NVIDIA's rise in the market, from its early challenges to its recent dominance in AI and data centres. Let’s look at how NVIDIA’s stock has evolved over the years.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Nasdaq 100 Index Hits New Highs Ahead of Big Tech Earnings

Earlier, we noted signs of optimism in the Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) as the market anticipated earnings reports from major tech firms.

Now, companies such as Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) have already released their results (we previously covered their charts → here and here). Up next are the most highly anticipated earnings reports: this week, tech giants including Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Apple (AAPL) are set to publish their results. The combined market capitalisation of these four companies exceeds $11 trillion, and their reports could have a significant impact on a stock market that is already showing strong bullish sentiment:

→ The Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) has climbed to an all-time high, surpassing the 23,400 mark.
→ The signing of trade agreements between the US and Europe (and earlier, Japan) has eased concerns about the negative impact of tariff barriers.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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US Dollar Index (DXY) Reaches One-Month High

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen to its highest level since early July. According to media reports, the bullish sentiment in the market is driven by the following factors:

→ Optimism around US trade agreements. A new trade deal with the EU — which includes a 15% tariff on European goods — is being perceived by the market as favourable for the United States.

→ Confidence in the resilience of the US economy. Strong Q2 corporate earnings have acted as an additional bullish catalyst. Investors may have started covering short positions against the dollar, viewing concerns over a US slowdown as overstated.

→ Expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold.

From a technical standpoint, today’s DXY chart reflects strengthening bullish momentum.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Decoding the Smart Money Concept for Forex Trading

In the forex market, understanding the intentions of major market participants—such as banks, hedge funds, and other institutional players—may improve trading strategies. These entities, collectively known as "smart money," are responsible for driving large-scale price movements and creating the structural flow of the market.

The Smart Money Concept (SMC) is a price action-based trading methodology that seeks to identify the footprints of institutional activity. By analysing market structure shifts, liquidity zones, order blocks, and inducements, traders can position themselves alongside professional capital rather than against it.

In this FXOpen article, we break down the key components of SMC and discuss how traders can use this advanced framework to anticipate price direction, optimise trade entries, and improve overall risk management.

Smart Money Concept Explained
The Smart Money Concept (SMC) is based on the idea that tracking the activity of major institutional players—such as banks, hedge funds, and asset managers—can provide retail traders with critical insights into potential market direction and emerging trends.

These institutional investors, often referred to as “smart money,” include banks, hedge funds, and investment firms, wielding significant capital power to influence market directions. The core of SMC lies in the belief that by observing and understanding the trading behaviours and patterns of these entities, retail traders can align their trading strategies to potentially tap into more favourable results.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Market Analysis: EUR/USD Dips Further While USD/CHF Consolidates Gains

EUR/USD extended losses and traded below the 1.1600 support. USD/CHF is rising and might aim for a move toward the 0.8120 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro struggled to clear the 1.1800 resistance and declined against the US Dollar.
• There is a key downward channel forming with resistance at 1.1575 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CHF is showing positive signs above the 0.8040 resistance zone.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 0.7990 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair failed to clear the 1.1800 resistance. The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.1720 support against the US Dollar.

The pair declined below the 1.1660 support and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 1.1520 level. A low was formed at 1.1519 and the pair is now consolidating losses. The market is showing bearish signs, and the upsides might remain capped.

There was a minor increase toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1770 swing high to the 1.1519 low. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.1575 level.

There is also a key downward channel forming with resistance at 1.1575. The next major resistance is near the 1.1665 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average or the 50% Fib retracement level.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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EUR/USD Hits Lowest Level Since Early July

As the EUR/USD chart indicates today, the euro has fallen below the 1.1550 mark against the US dollar, reaching the lows of June 2025. As a result, July may become the first month in 2025 to record a decline in the currency pair.

Why Is EUR/USD Declining?

There are two key factors driving the euro’s weakness relative to the US dollar:

→ Anticipation of the Federal Reserve Meeting. At 21:00 GMT+3 today, the Fed’s interest rate decision will be released. According to Forex Factory, analysts expect the Federal Funds Rate to remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%.
→ Market Reaction to the US-EU Trade Agreement. The trade deal signed last weekend between the United States and Europe is being critically assessed by market participants.

As noted in our Monday analysis, signs of a bearish takeover emerged on the chart following the agreement’s signing. Since then, EUR/USD has declined by approximately 1.3%. The question now is whether the downtrend will continue.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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UnitedHealth (UNH) Shares Plunge Following Earnings Report

Yesterday, prior to the opening of the main trading session, UnitedHealth released its quarterly results along with forward guidance. As a result, UNH shares dropped by over 7%, signalling deep disappointment among market participants. According to media reports:

→ Earnings per share came in at $4.08, missing analysts’ expectations of $4.48.
→ Revenue guidance was set at $445.5–448 billion, falling short of the anticipated $449.07 billion.
→ Concerns were further fuelled by rising costs and declining profitability, which the company attributed to the continued impact of Medicare funding cuts.

Consequently, the UNH share price dropped to its lowest level of 2025, last seen on 15 May.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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How Can FUD in Cryptocurrencies and Stocks Affect Your Trading?

FUD—fear, uncertainty, and doubt—shapes market sentiment, often leading to panic-driven sell-offs and volatility. Whether in stocks or crypto, FUD spreads through media, social platforms, and influential figures, sometimes distorting prices beyond fundamental value. This article explores “What does FUD mean in crypto and stocks?”, how it spreads, its psychological impact, and how traders assess whether fear is justified.

What Is FUD?
What does FUD mean in stocks and crypto? FUD stands for fear, uncertainty, and doubt and plays a significant role in financial markets. It refers to the spread of negative sentiment—whether intentional or not—that causes traders to hesitate, panic, or make decisions based on emotions rather than analysis. FUD can be natural and artificial and can come from a variety of sources, including media reports, social media discussions, regulatory updates, and influential investors voicing concerns.

In markets, FUD often leads to sell-offs, heightened volatility, and price fluctuations that don’t always reflect an asset’s true value. For example, if a major financial news outlet publishes a report suggesting a company is struggling, investors may rush to offload shares, pushing the price down. The same happens with digital assets when rumours of regulation, security flaws, or industry-wide collapses circulate.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Microsoft Stock (MSFT) Soars to Record High Following Strong Earnings Report


As the chart illustrates, Microsoft (MSFT) shares surged sharply after the close of the regular trading session – an immediate market reaction to the company’s strong quarterly results.

According to available data, MSFT's post-market price jumped to $555 per share, exceeding its previous all-time high by more than 8%.

Why Did MSFT Share Price Rise?

The quarterly report provided several reasons for optimism, including:

→ Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $3.65, beating analysts’ expectations of $3.37 by over 8%. Revenue also exceeded forecasts, totalling $76.4 billion versus the projected $73.9 billion.
→ Microsoft’s cloud revenue rose by 27% to $46.7 billion, while Azure’s annualised revenue exceeded $75 billion, driven by growing demand for AI-related services.

In response to these results, Barclays analysts quickly raised their price target for Microsoft shares from $550 to $625.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Amazon (AMZN) Shares Rise Ahead of Earnings Report


Today, 31 July, Amazon is set to release its quarterly earnings after the close of the regular trading session. Available data show that Amazon (AMZN) shares are exhibiting bullish momentum, reflecting positive market expectations:

→ In July, AMZN shares have outperformed the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen);
→ Yesterday, following the end of the regular session, AMZN shares surged by approximately 3% in after-hours trading.

The rise in AMZN comes amid strong earnings reports from other tech giants, such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META). For example, MSFT shares rose by more than 8% in post-market trading. Their success has likely fuelled optimism that Amazon’s upcoming report will also impress.

All of this has brought noticeable changes to the technical outlook for the AMZN stock price.

Technical Analysis of the Amazon (AMZN) Chart


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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What Are Autoregressive Models, and How Can You Use Them in Trading?

Autoregressive (AR) models help traders analyse market movements by identifying statistical relationships in historical price data. These models assume that past values influence current prices, making them useful for spotting trends and price behaviour. This article explores “What is autoregression?”, how AR models function, their role in trading, and how traders apply them to market analysis.

What Is an Autoregressive Model?
Autoregressive (AR) models are statistical tools that can be used in numerous spheres, including market prices, weather, and traffic conditions. They analyse market movements by using past price data to understand current trends. The autoregressive definition refers to a model where each value in a time series depends on previous values plus an error term.

The number of previous values considered is called the “lag order,” denoted as AR(p), where ‘p’ represents the number of lags. In an autoregressive model example, an AR(1) model looks at just the previous value to estimate the current one, while an AR(3) model considers the last three. In trading, the key idea is that if historical prices show a consistent pattern—whether trending or reverting to a mean—an AR model can help identify that structure.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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USD/CAD Rises to 2-Month High

Today, the USD/CAD exchange rate briefly exceeded the 1.3870 mark – the highest level seen this summer. In less than ten days, the US dollar has strengthened by over 2% against the Canadian dollar.

Why Is USD/CAD Rising?

Given that both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday (as expected), the primary driver behind the pair’s recent rally appears to be US President Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on several countries – including Canada:

→ Despite efforts by Prime Minister of Canada Mark Carney to reach an agreement with Trump, no deal was achieved;
→ Canadian goods exported to the US will now be subject to a 35% tariff;
→ The tariffs take effect from 1 August;
→ Goods compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) are exempt.

Media analysts note that the tariffs are likely to increase pressure on the Canadian economy, as approximately 75% of the country's exports are destined for the United States.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.