Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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Analytical Projections on UK Interest Rates for 2025 and 2026

As the UK navigates a complex economic landscape marked by trade tensions, evolving monetary policy, and persistent inflationary pressures, the trajectory of interest rates remains a focal point. In 2025 and looking ahead to 2026, forecasts on UK interest rates diverge amid uncertainty surrounding global trade dynamics, domestic growth prospects, and the Bank of England’s policy response. This article delves into expert projections, weighing economic indicators and institutional forecasts to provide an outlook on where UK interest rates may be headed over the next two years.

UK Interest Rate Environment
The UK's interest rate landscape has undergone significant transformations over the past few years. From the end of 2021 to the middle of 2023, the Bank of England (BoE) raised interest rates from the historic low of 0.1% to 5.25%—the highest in UK interest rates history since 2008. The decision to elevate interest rates from near-zero levels was primarily driven by the need to counteract rising inflation, which has emerged as a considerable threat to the UK's economic stability.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Market Analysis: EUR/USD Trims Gains as USD/CHF Targets Upside Break

EUR/USD started a downside correction from the 1.1450 resistance. USD/CHF is rising and might aim for a move towards the 0.8250 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro struggled to clear the 1.1450 resistance and declined against the US Dollar.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.1395 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CHF is showing positive signs above the 0.8200 resistance zone.
• There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 0.8180 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair gained pace for a move above the 1.1300 zone, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The Euro tested the 1.1450 resistance and recently corrected gains against the US Dollar.

The pair dipped below 1.1400. There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.1395. It even traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1209 swing low to the 1.1454 high.

The pair is showing some bearish signs, and upside potential might remain limited. Immediate resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.1395.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Major Currency Pairs Consolidate Ahead of Key Economic Data Releases

The GBP/USD and USD/CAD currency pairs are showing sideways movement as markets await the release of critical macroeconomic statistics. Traders are taking a wait-and-see approach, assessing upcoming data from the US, UK, and Canada.

A significant amount of attention is focused on US data. Today, ADP employment figures are expected — analysts forecast a gain of 111K compared to 62K last month. A positive outlook is also expected for the ISM Services PMI at 52.3 versus April’s 50.8. Market sentiment in the upcoming sessions will remain sensitive to incoming data and statements from Federal Reserve officials, which could shape short-term trends for the US dollar.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair has stabilised in the 1.3500–1.3550 range at the start of the week. Technical analysis suggests a potential retest of May highs around 1.3600, as a number of bullish patterns have formed on the daily timeframe. A more serious downward correction may develop if the price confidently breaks below the 1.3420–1.3440 support zone.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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USD/CAD Holds Near 2025 Low

As the chart shows, the USD/CAD exchange rate hit its lowest level of 2025 on 2nd June, nearing the 1.3680 mark. Although there was a partial recovery on 3rd June, it was not substantial.

These fluctuations reflect market participants’ cautious sentiment ahead of key announcements scheduled for today, 4th June:

→ At 15:15 (GMT+3), the ADP Employment Change figures will be released, offering insight into the US employment situation. Traders are concerned as the previous reading was only +61K — a sharp contrast to the consistent triple-digit increases seen throughout 2024.

→ At 16:45 (GMT+3), the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision. According to ForexFactory, analysts expect the overnight rate to remain unchanged at 2.75%, though surprises cannot be ruled out.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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XBR/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Price Rises to Key Resistance

Yesterday, the price of Brent crude climbed above $65.60 — the highest level in over a week.

According to media reports, several bullish factors are driving this move:
→ Stalled negotiations between the US and Iran over abandoning Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for lifting oil export sanctions;
→ Wildfires in Canada, which have significantly reduced oil output;
→ Market reaction to the OPEC+ meeting held over the weekend;
→ A weakening US dollar.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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How to Trade Crude Oil: Different Financial Instruments

Crude oil is a dynamic and complex market, offering traders various instruments for participation. With opportunities for both short-term and long-term investment, it presents multiple avenues for exciting trading. This article delves into the different financial instruments available for crude oil trading profit, from CFDs to ETFs and everything in between.

Why Trade Crude Oil?

Crude oil, particularly its major benchmarks Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is a highly traded commodity known for its significant liquidity and price volatility. These attributes make it attractive for traders looking to capitalise on price movements in either direction.

These markets operate nearly around the clock, accommodating traders across time zones. The best time to trade crude oil is usually during the overlap of the New York and London market hours, where liquidity is at its highest, facilitating more efficient trades.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Tesla (TSLA) Share Price Falls by 3.5%

Yesterday, the share price of Tesla (TSLA) dropped by 3.5%, placing it among the five worst-performing stocks of the day in the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen). Since the peak on 29 May, the decline now totals nearly 10%.

Why Tesla (TSLA) Shares Are Falling
Among the bearish factors are:
→ A drop in car sales in Europe. Sales in Germany fell by 36% year-on-year in May.
→ Growing competition from China. May deliveries from Tesla’s Chinese factory were down 15% year-on-year.
→ Elon Musk’s criticism of the US President’s proposed government spending bill.

Media reports also suggest that Musk took offence at staffing decisions at NASA, while Trump is reportedly losing patience with Musk over his attacks on the spending bill.

A potential rift between Musk and Trump could have far-reaching consequences — including for TSLA shares.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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USD/JPY Analysis: Bears Put Pressure on Key Support

As shown on the USD/JPY chart, the pair is hovering near key support at ¥142.50 per US dollar.

While demand was strong enough at the end of May to lift the exchange rate from this level to a peak around ¥146.00, USD/JPY has once again retreated to the ¥142.50 area.

Why has USD/JPY declined?
On one hand, the US dollar has weakened following disappointing economic data released yesterday. The figures revealed a sharp slowdown in private sector hiring and an unexpected contraction in the US services sector, fuelling concerns over a possible recession.

On the other hand, yen strength is being driven by the Bank of Japan's apparent willingness to raise interest rates — reaffirmed on Tuesday by Governor Kazuo Ueda — which has reinforced expectations of a tightening cycle.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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What Are Market Cycles And How Can You Use Them?

Market cycles are a cornerstone of financial trading, shaping the opportunities and risks faced by traders across various markets. This article delves into the key phases of market cycles, how they manifest in different trading arenas, and how traders can capitalise on these predictable patterns for trading success.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Euro Strengthens, Yen Consolidates Ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls Report

The major currency pairs, EUR/USD and USD/JPY, are showing restrained movement as markets await the release of key US employment data. Investors remain cautious, assessing the outlook for monetary policy in light of recent central bank decisions.

Today, market participants will focus on the release of the monthly US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. According to the consensus forecast, employment is expected to increase by 127K jobs in May, down from 177K in April and below the 12-month average of 156,800. The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.2%, consistent with recent months.

The anticipated slowdown in job growth is likely tied to ongoing economic uncertainty driven by trade tensions and the imposition of new tariffs. Weak ADP employment data, which showed a gain of only 37K jobs in May, has further raised concerns about the labour market. If the NFP data comes in below expectations, it may reinforce forecasts of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming months.

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.15%. This marks the eighth rate reduction since May 2024, driven by a slowdown in eurozone inflation to 1.9%, below the ECB’s 2% target. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the bank is in a “strong position” to navigate the current global economic uncertainty, including trade tensions with the United States. This contributed to the strengthening of the EUR/USD pair to the 1.1490 level. Technical analysis of EUR/USD suggests a potential retest of the April high around 1.1570.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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ECB Cuts Rates. EUR/USD Spikes to 1.5-Month High

Yesterday, as widely expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the eighth time since May 2024. According to ForexFactory, the main refinancing rate was lowered from 2.40% to 2.15% (having stood at 4.50% in May 2024).

According to Reuters:
→ ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that interest rates are now at a “good level”, despite the extremely high uncertainty caused by tariff threats from President Donald Trump.
→ Following the press conference, markets interpreted the message as a sign that the ECB is unlikely to cut rates again at its next meeting in July.

In response to the ECB's decision, the EUR/USD rate jumped to its highest level in a month and a half, but later retreated (as indicated by the arrow) back to previous levels.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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GBPUSD Edges Higher, EURGBP Hits Support

GBP/USD is attempting a fresh increase above the 1.3500 resistance. EUR/GBP declined steadily below the 0.8440 and 0.8430 support levels.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.3515.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3535 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP is trading in a bearish zone below the 0.8450 pivot level.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 0.8415 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair declined after it failed to clear the 1.3615 resistance. The British Pound even traded below the 1.3575 support against the US Dollar.

Finally, the pair tested the 1.3500 zone and is currently attempting a fresh increase. The bulls were able to push the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.3540. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3535.

The pair tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3616 swing high to the 1.3507 low. It is now showing positive signs above 1.3540.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.3575 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3616 swing high to the 1.3507 low.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Dow Jones Index Rises Towards Key Resistance

On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Wall Street 30 mini on FXOpen) climbed above the 42,950 level — a high not seen since early March.

The index has gained around 1.6% since the beginning of June.

Why Is the Dow Jones Rising?

→ Friday’s US jobs report helped ease concerns about the country’s economic outlook. According to ForexFactory, Non-Farm Employment Change came in at +139K, beating the forecast of +126K.

→ On Thursday, Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a call, easing tariff tensions. Market participants also welcomed news that officials may hold trade negotiations in London on 9 June.

Could the DJIA (Wall Street 30 mini on FXOpen) Rally Continue?

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Apple (AAPL) Shares Consolidate Ahead of WWDC

Today, 9 June, marks the start of Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) — an event that traditionally attracts significant attention from investors and traders.

It is fair to say that WWDC 2025 begins against a rather negative backdrop:

→ Since the start of 2025, AAPL stock price has fallen by 19%, and Apple has lost its title as the world’s most valuable company, now trailing behind Microsoft and Nvidia.
→ Expectations raised by last year’s conference — particularly regarding new AI features in the iPhone — were not fully realised. As Barron’s noted, in March, an Apple spokesperson admitted that the new Siri “will take longer than we thought to implement these features. We expect to roll them out next year.”

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 9 - 13 June

Market Insights with Gary Thomson: UK Unemployment & GDP, US Inflation & PPI, Earnings Reports

In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!

In this episode, we discuss:

— UK Unemployment Rate
— US Inflation Rate
— UK GDP Growth Rate
— US Producer Price Index
— Corporate Earnings Statements

Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.




Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

Disclaimer: This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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How to Trade with the 5-0 Pattern

The 5-0 pattern is a relatively new harmonic trading formation revealed by Scott Carney in 2007. It is a reversal setup signalling a change in the direction of the market trend. In this FXOpen article, you will learn more about the 5-0 formation and why it’s worth spotting it on a chart. You’ll find out how to trade it effectively and see a real-market example of the 5-0 setup placed on the TickTrader platform.

What Is the 5-0 Harmonic Pattern?

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Common Mistakes to Avoid in Trading

You have probably heard that trading is risky and that traders often make silly mistakes. At FXOpen, we know that many questions arise during trading regardless of your level of experience. In this article, we will discuss the common trading mistakes that you might make even if you have been in the markets for a long time.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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XBR/USD Chart Analysis: Brent Crude Reaches 1.5-Month High

In our analysis of Brent crude oil six days ago, we identified a large contracting triangle and a local ascending channel. We also outlined a potential scenario involving a bullish breakout above the upper boundary of the triangle.

Although this was not the base-case scenario, the XBR/USD chart now suggests it has played out: yesterday, the price climbed to nearly $67 per barrel — its highest level since the end of April.

The main bullish catalyst appears to be ongoing trade talks between the United States and China, which have raised hopes of a resolution to tariff-related tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

At the same time, rising oil prices may exacerbate geopolitical tensions, particularly amid Israeli threats to strike ports in Yemen — a risk that could disrupt supply chains across the Middle East.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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FTSE 100 Surges Towards Record High

Today saw the release of new data on the UK labour market.

According to official statistics, the number of payrolled employees in the UK fell by 55,000 (0.2%) between March and April 2025. Over the broader period from February to April 2025, the number declined by 78,000 (0.3%).

In response to the drop in employment, the UK’s FTSE 100 index (UK 100 on FXOpen) jumped sharply, rising close to the 8,900 mark — near its all-time high reached in early March this year.

Market participants likely interpreted the weakening labour market as an additional argument in favour of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England. Such a move would be seen as supportive of the economy and a bullish factor for equities.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Automated Trading vs Manual Trading

In the modern world of trading, two distinct methodologies exist: manual trading vs algorithmic trading. Both these approaches aim at the same goal - to optimise profit and minimise losses in the financial markets. However, they vary significantly in their operation, the level of involvement required, and the nature of decision-making processes. In this FXOpen article, you will find the key differences between the approaches and their advantages and limitations that may help you to choose the right approach for you.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.