Currency Pairs Analysis Today.

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US stocks are set for a mixed open on Monday, as futures pared earlier gains and investors questioned whether global growth can survive a slowdown in Chinese growth, an energy crunch and therefore the Fed tapering support.

On the opposite hand, The GBPUSD earlier within the US session extended above its 200 hour moving average (green line), but found sellers near a swing area between 1.37247 and 1.37332. The high reached for the day 1.37282 before moving back to the downside.

The corrective move lower did move right down to 1.36953 before finding buyers again. That lower also above the 100 hour moving average at 1.3576.

Currently, the worth is copy retesting the 200 hour moving average 1.37132. Can the buyers still push higher and obtain back above this key moving average?

 

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EUR/USD is on the back foot once again, as a sell-off in risk assets drive demand for the dollar. The latest retracement only amounted to a mere 38.2%, with the pair subsequently heading back down into the $1.1563 lows established last week. A break below that level brings about a fresh sell signal, with further downside likely in either case.

A break through the $1.1755 level would be required to negate that bearish view. However, that figure changes to $1.164 if we manage to break this $1.1563 support level.

 

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AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

AUD/USD sliced below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) overnight, a level that served as support several times over the last week. The 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.7315 may offer support. That level coincides with resistance seen through September. MACD crossed below its center line overnight, a bearish sign.

 

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AUD/USD Started To Focus first of The Week.

The Australian Dollar is in focus to kick off the week, with several economic data prints due out of China. Markets are coming off a mixed week, the safe-haven US Dollar gained against most of its peers, while US equity markets fell as Treasury yields increased. The risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair fell nearly 1% last week, with the bulk of weakness coming after a hot inflation (CPI) print out of the United States.

Rising prices across the global economy is a centerpiece issue that has investors attempting to gauge the impacts on economic activity and central bank policy over the coming months. Japan will report inflation data for October later this week. This morning, the island nation’s third-quarter gross domestic product data crossed the wires. Output dropped to -3.0% q/q, missing the consensus forecast calling for -0.7%.

 

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EUR/USD Flat As Eurozone Economy.

According to EUROSTAT, the eurozone economy advanced 2.2% in the third quarter, essentially matching what the market had anticipated. This is slightly up from the 2.1% growth in the second quarter.

Gains were led by Austria, France, and Portugal, with Germany and Italy recording modest gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

 

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USD/MXN Price technical Analysis

The USD/MXN is falling marginally on Wednesday after rising during two consecutive days and after posting on Tuesday, the second-highest close of the current month. The stronger US dollar across the board continues to be the key driver in the cross.

Key moving averages pointing north, technical indicators mixed and far from extreme readings, are tilted to the upside in USD/MXN. Also supporting the bullish outlook is price holding above the 20, 55 and 100 simple moving averages and above a short-term uptrend line that today stands at 20.30.

 

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Turkish lira hits all-time low before bank meeting.

The Turkish lira on Thursday continued its slide ahead of the country’s central bank meeting.

The currency fell to a record low of 10.98 against the dollar, but pared some losses to trade at 10.72 on Thursday afternoon in Asia.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday sent the lira spiraling when he said he will continue to fight to bring interest rates down. Erdogan previously said interest rates are “the devil” and that lower rates will reduce inflation, in direct contrast to what most economists believe.

 

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Canadian Dollar (CAD) Firm as Oil Prices Hold

The oil-sensitive Canadian Dollar (CAD) ticked higher through Wednesday’s session as WTI crude held above $78 a barrel after Tuesday’s oil price rally.

After the US and other major energy consuming countries announcement to release crude reserves, reports emerged yesterday that OPEC+ are rethinking production levels, bolstering oil prices.

 

[forum forex]

The GBP/USD pair has been in a bearish trend lately.

GBP/USD pair dropped below a key support level at 1.3415, which was the lowest level in October. It also passed the support at 1.3358, which was the lowest level on November 12. It has also moved below the 25-day moving average.

Therefore, the pair will likely rebound as investors predict a relatively resilient UK economy even as the Omicron risks rise. This could see it rise to the key resistance level at 1.3500.

 

[forum forex]

USD/JPY has paused in the last few session after a sell-off to end last week.

It is currently below the short-term simple moving average (SMA) and above the long-term SMAs. The price is currently near the medium-term 55-day SMA.

This might indicate that short-term bearish momentum is running up against bullish long-term momentum. A significant break-out of the near-term range of 112.533 – 113.960 could see momentum evolve in that direction.

Support may lie at the previous lows and pivot points of 112.533, 112.079, 110.802, 109.113 and 108.723.

Potential resistance might be at the previous highs of 113.96 and 115.505.

 

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USD/CHF Technical analysis by forex forum, Dec-23, 2021

The USD/CHF stills range-bound, even though it broke below the confluence of the 50 and the 100-day moving averages (DMAs) but so far has been unable to break below the 200-DMA at 0.9175.

On the downside, if the USD/CHF extends its declines, the first support would be the 200-DMA at 0.9176. the breach of the latter would expose the November 30 daily low at 0.9157, followed by a test of the 0.9100 figure.

Thank You

 

[forum forex]

Hawkish FED is causing a sharp reversal in the markets, with stocks coming down as US yields rise which makes USD very strong across the board. So we think that volatility is likely going to stay here because of Central banks policy divergences.
So one pair that we track closely is EURUSD for more weakness as ECB seems to be on the different side compared to FED. In fact, we see nice five wave drop from 1.1380 followed by only three-wave rally into 61.8% Fib so we assume that trend will stay bearish.

EUR/USD​

Current level – 1.1308​

The situation with the single European currency remained unchanged at the beginning of today's session as the range move currently stays locked between 1.1278 and 1.1359. The forecast remains neutral, but today's announcement of the initial jobless claims data for the U.S. at 13:30 GMT could affect the volatility of the currency pair. Only a successful breach of one of the mentioned boundaries of the narrow range, however, could determine the future mood of investors. Of course, the non-farm payrolls change data for the U.S. (Friday; 13:30 GMT) will also be followed just as attentively.

 

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Jan-25, 2022, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, USD/JPY technical analysis and forecast, By Forex Forum​

EUR/USD keeps testing the two-month channel support line at $1.1292 which may still be slipped through ahead of key policy decisions from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) tomorrow.​

Together with the late December and early January lows at $1.1274 to $1.1272 the channel support line has held since late December. A fall through this support zone would put the mid-December low at $1.1222 as well as the November trough at $1.1186 on the map.

The downtrend remains firmly entrenched while the currency pair stays below the 16 January high at $1.1369 and, more importantly, the late November and December highs at $1.1383 to $1.1387.

Moreover, EUR/GBP has formed a bottom and is likely to rise further still.​

Now that the November low and last week's high at £0.8379 to £0.8381 have been exceeded, EUR/GBP is deemed to have formed a bottom at its year-to-date low at £0.8305. It was made right between the £0.8313 to £0.8277 December 2016, April 2017, December 2019 and February 2020 lows which represent key long-term support.



On the other hand, The dollar edged higher on Tuesday to within striking distance of its two-week peak, as investors bought safe-haven currencies amid tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine while awaiting the outcome of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting.

The US military put about 8,500 troops on alert to be ready to deploy to Europe if needed, in the latest effort to reassure jittery NATO allies in the face of a Russian military build-up near Ukraine.​

"Much greater exposure of European economies to the crisis does not make the euro a particularly attractive vehicle to ride out the current storm," ING analysts said.

The euro was down 0.2% at 0848 GMT to $1.1300, trading just off its lowest since on 20 December touched on Monday.

 

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Mar-13, 2022, Forex trading daily analysis and Currency market latest updates, by Forex Forum.​

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EUR/USD – BEARISH​

The US Dollar ended little changed against the Euro this past week, but it should be noted that EUR/USD trimmed all its gains that it once achieved from earlier in that period. While this is primarily a technical piece, it should be noted that the ongoing situation in Ukraine continues to play a key role for the single currency. An escalation in conflict would likely further pressure the Euro in the week ahead.

Closing under the March 7th low at 1.0806 exposes the bottom from April 2020, making for a key zone of support from 1.0727 – 1.0793. Beyond that sits the 2020 low at 1.0636 and under that is the 138.2% Fibonacci extension of 1.0496. In the event of a turn higher, keep a close eye on the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) as well as the former 1.1122 – 1.1186 support zone. The latter could step in as new resistance.

On the other hand, It's no secret that USD/JPY has been trending consistently higher for nearly six months now, but some traders have been caught off guard by the ferocity of Friday's move through resistance.

USD/JPY, the pair has been riding its 50-day EMA higher since September, though the price action over the last four months could be better characterized as an ascending triangle, with higher lows showing increasing pressure on a horizontal level of resistance, in this case at 116.35. The textbook explanation for the pattern is that once an instrument breaks above its resistance line as we saw Friday.

Thank You

 

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March-21, 2022, Currency Trading analysis and daily market forecast, By forex forum.​

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Price action in the Japanese Yen remains bearish as USD/JPY and cross-JPY showing little signs of pulling back. There have been several reasons as to why the Japanese Yen has received little support. Firstly, the energy shock has worsened Japan's terms of trade (as shown below), keep in mind that Japan is a net energy importer. Additionally, with global central banks either raising rates or signalling an intention to raise rates, wider rate differentials have weighed against the Japanese Yen.

As such, USD/JPY continues to track US 10yr yields in lockstep. Elsewhere, seasonal factors are also extremely bullish USD/JPY, in which the pair has had a tendency to ramp higher into the end of the month, before peaking in the first week of April. Subsequently, I remain bearish Yen for the rest of the month and will look to reassess in the first week of April, should there be signs of an overshoot.

Now while I have mentioned several factors explaining why the Japanese Yen can keep selling off in the short run. With USD/JPY comfortable above 119.00, the key barrier to watch is the 120 figure, which if breached would put me on high alert for intervention risks. This could be the catalyst to prompt USD/JPY to continue tracking its seasonal pattern and peak in the first week of April.

On the other hand, EUR/USD adds to the bearish note seen on Friday, although the pair trades mostly within the familiar range on Monday.​

In case sellers push harder, the 1.1000 neighbourhood should offer decent contention. This area is also underpinned by the temporary support at the 10-day SMA at 1.0997 prior to the weekly low at 1.0900 (March 14).

The medium-term negative outlook for EUR/USD is expected to remain unchanged while below the key 200-day SMA, today at 1.1525.

Elsewhere, USD/JPY is usually the clearest trade on rising rates and it's living up to its reputation today as it climbs above Friday's high to 119.45.​

The dollar has added an additional 20 pips across the board in the past few minutes as the market continues to digest hawkish talk from Powell.

The rates market is reflecting that as well, with US 5-year yields now up 18 basis points on the day to 2.32%. The Nasdaq dip buyers today are getting carried out, with the index now down 1.6%.

On the other hand, The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is making gains today despite there being no clear catalyst for the movement. The Pound (GBP) may be seeing a technical correction following a slump last week after the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate decision. Additionally, an uptick to UK bond yields may also be helping GBP to climb.

At time of writing the GBP/USD exchange is at around $1.1399, which is up roughly 0.3% from this morning's opening figures.

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April-04, 2022, Currency market analysis and forecast, by forum.forex​

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The EURUSD is trading to a new session low and in the process is testing the next swing area between 1.09576 and 1.09675 (see earlier post here). There is some cause for pause against the area. However, a move below that level will target the low from last week at 1.0944.​

The move to the downside today got a shove below the 200 hour MA (green line), and has also moved below the 50% of the range since the March low at 1.0994. An upward sloping trend line on the hourly chart was also broken in the downward move.

Moreover, The US dollar is robust at the start of the week, with the DXY higher on the day so far by nearly 0.5% and for three straight sessions. US yields are firmer due to the narrative surrounding the Federal reserve and as civilian killings in north Ukraine keep the safe-haven appeal alive in financial markets. In turn, the euro is on the backfoot and weighed also by the prospect of increased sanctions.

At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading lower by 0.7% and some change after falling from a high of 1.1054 to a low of 1.0960. The euro is trapped between mixed sentiment surrounding the path of the European Central bank, Ukraine crisis risks to the economy and runaway inflation in the US which, for now at least, is supporting demand for the greenback.

On the other hand, AUD/USD reversed course after taking out the 2021 low (0.6993) in January.​

The exchange rate traded above the 50-Week SMA for the first time since July after clearing the yearly opening range in March. AUD/USD may continue to retrace the decline from last year as the exchange rate is on the cusp of testing the October high (0.7556), but the diverging paths for monetary policy may curb the bullish price action. The Federal Reserve looks to implement a series of rate hikes over the coming months, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains in no rush to switch gears.

As a result, the advance from the yearly low (0.6968) may turn out to be a correction as the 50-Week SMA continues to reflect a negative slope. The exchange rate may attempt to further retrace the decline from the 2021 high (0.8007), if it manages to penetrate the former support zone around the October high (0.7556).

Elsewhere, USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook​

The USD/CHF bias is neutral-upwards. Its daily chart depicts a subsequent series of higher highs/lows since the beginning of 2022. March 31 dip towards the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 0.9209 was rejected, forming a "spinning top" candlestick, meaning failure to commit between buyers/sellers.

Upwards, the USD/CHF first resistance would be 0.9280. Once cleared, a test of February's ten high at 0.929600 is on the cards, immediately followed by 0.9300. A decisive break would open the door toward January 31 daily high at 0.9343.

On the downside, the USD/CHF first support would be the 50-DMA at 0.9258, followed by April 1 daily low at 0.9215, and then the 200-DMA at 0.9209.

On the other hand, Moscow has implemented two things. First, they now demand the sale of natural gas to unfriendly countries in the form of Ruble (USDRUB) . Thus, if the U.S. and its allies want to buy natural gas from Russia now, they must pay in Ruble. Second, Moscow offers to buy Gold domestically at a fixed price of 5000 rubles per gram. The Bank of Russia therefore has linked Ruble to Gold (XAUUSD) . Since Gold also trades in US Dollars, this effectively sets a floor price for the ruble in terms of US Dollars.

Thank You

 

[forum forex]

April-05, 2022, Currency trading technical analysis and daily market forecast, By forex forum.​

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EUR/USD FACES INTENSIFYING PRESSURE​

As proposed sanctions and a more hawkish Fed continue to weigh on the Euro, EUR/USD continues to slide towards the March low, holding as support at 1.085.

With Fed officials suggesting that they could start reducing the balance sheet as early as May, proposed sanctions and an optimistic ISM report have placed further pressure on EUR/USD which remains well-below the 50-day MA (moving average).

As long as the 1.100 mark holds as resistance, the 1.085 remains key with a break below bringing the April 2020 low into play at 1.0756.

Elsewhere, The USD/JPY advances for the third straight day, despite yen-related remarks by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kuroda, who stated that "forex moves are somewhat rapid," spurring a 30-pip drop in the pair, though recovered of late on broad US dollar strength. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 123.58.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook.​

The USD/JPY keeps trending higher. However, it is worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 73.90 at overbought conditions reacted with less force to the upside on the rally towards current prices, meaning that the USD/JPY might be subject to a mean reversion move.

However, the uptrend remains intact unless the USD/JPY falls below 121.27. That said, the USD/JPY first resistance would be 124.00. A breach of the latte would expose solid supply zones, like 124.30, followed by the YTD high at 125.10.

Thanks

 

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April-13, 2022, Currency trading technical analysis and market forecast, by forex forum.​

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The EUR/USD rebounded sharply during the last hours and climbed from 1.0820 to 1.0878, reaching a fresh daily high. The move higher took place amid a decline of the US dollar across the board. The greenback lost momentum as US yields turned to the downside.

The US 10-year yield fell from 2.75 to 2.65%, reaching the lowest level since Friday, while the 30-year dropped from the multi-year high at 2.87% to 2.76%. The recovery in Treasuries weighed on the greenback.

On the othe hand, Overnight, USD/JPY shot above the 2015 high at 12585, up to a high so far of 12631.​

This put it at its best levels since early 2002. It is currently flirting with losing that level, and on that if we do see a reversal after breaking out to a 20-year high it could catch a lot of market participants wrong-footed.

We obviously got here so fast through a lot of buying, so even without looking at various sentiment indicators one can conclude a lot of folks are long. Looking at one futures indicator, though, DSI (Daily Sentiment Index) shows over 90% have a long bias.

A fake-out breakout above the 2015 high and failure could send USD/JPY into pullback mode. What I will be watching here is for a weekly closing print that’s not only below the 2015 high, but the emphatic spike-high reversal week ending on April 1. That would require a weekly close below 12510.

Elsewhere, The GBPUSD has broken to a new session high and in the process has moved above its 100 hour moving average at 1.30285.​

That break higher comes after the pair moved to the lowest level since November 6 earlier in the day after taking out the swing low from April 8 at 1.29818. The low price reached 1.2971 before rotating back to the upside.

Helping the technical view in the near term is that the last swing low - before the recent move to the upside over the last few hours - could only get to 1.29899 before the push back higher. With the price back above the 100 day moving average, the buyers are taking another shot at the upside.

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April-14, 2022, Currency trading technical analysis and forex market latest analysis.​

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GBP/JPY hit fresh more than six-year highs on Thursday, eclipsing Wednesday’s 164.84 peak by about one pip. However, despite a sharp rise in US, UK and global developed market bond yields (apart from in Japan), the pair was not able to muster a convincing bullish break towards 165.00. Rather, the pair on Thursday slipped back to test the 164.00 level once again and at current levels in the 164.40s, trades with losses of about 0.2% on the day.

The lack of bullish momentum could have something to do with the risk-off tone to US equity market trade – typically, GBP/JPY is correlated to other risk assets like US stocks. It could have something to do with the fact that, since the start of the month, GBP/JPY has already put in a solid nearly 3.0% rally from the sub-160.00 levels, and was thus due some profit-taking/consolidation.

On the other hand, US TREASURIES LOWER, US AND UK INFLATION HIGHER​

On Tuesday and Wednesday we saw US and UK headline measures of inflation (inclusive of fuel and food which tend to exhibit the most volatile price changes) which both beat expectations. Upward surprises in inflation data seems to be the norm but the market took more notice of the fact that US core inflation (excluding food and fuel) data rose less than expected. A lower core inflation reading suggests that maybe inflation isn’t as widespread throughout the economy as previously observed and that we could start to see a slow down in general price increases.

GBP/USD: KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS

Sterling wasted no time surpassing 1.3080 which leaves 1.3190 as the next level of resistance as this level temporarily capped prices in March. As mentioned earlier, the real test for the pound is that zone of resistance around 1.3265 which coincided with the mid-point of the descending channel and effectively repelled the GBP/USD advance in March.

The fairly large option expiry later today could see prices head lower. In that case, 1.3080 returns as support followed by the psychological level of 1.3000.

Elsewhere, Short-dated euro zone bond yields and the single currency fell on Thursday as traders pared back rate hike bets after the European Central Bank refrained from switching to a more hawkish stance.​

Bond yields have marched higher in recent weeks as investors bet the ECB will raise rates sooner rather than later to curb euro zone inflation which, at 7.5%, is well above the bank's 2% target.

But the ECB concluded its latest meeting with cautious steps to unwind support and avoiding any firm pledge beyond the end of bond buys it had already laid out in March.

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[forum forex]

May-06, 2022, Weekly Currency trading forecast, by forex forum.​

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The British pound appears to regain composure but remains losing in the day, down 0.06%, after the Bank of England hiked rates by 25-bps on Thursday. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.2352.

US employment figures came positive, and the BoE expects inflation to reach 10%
Global equities remain down during the North American session, while the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a YTD high of around 3.131%. Albeit higher US yields, the greenback is giving back some earlier weekly gains, as portrayed by the US Dollar Index, a gauge of the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, down 0.18%, sitting at 103.370.

Elsewhere, The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies on Friday after two volatile days as investors focused on how aggressive the Federal Reserve will be in hiking rates as it tackles rising inflation.

The dollar index hit a 20-year high overnight on safe haven demand, following a sharp stock selloff on Thursday driven by concerns about the Fed's aggressive tightening and as European currencies weakened on worries about growth in the region.


It retraced some of these gains, however, as investors evaluated how much of the Fed’s hawkishness is already priced into the greenback, and as some analysts argued that inflation may be nearing a peak.

Data on Friday showed that U.S. job growth increased more than expected in April. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% after advancing 0.5% in March. That lowered the year-on-year increase in wages to 5.5% from 5.6% in March.

Moreover, the EURUSD is remaining near its lows going back to 2017.​

However, the price is trying to stay above its shorter-term 200 hour moving average at 1.05516 and its 100 hour moving average at 1.05425. The current price is trading at 1.0577. The low price for the cycle reach 1.04703 last week.

On the other hand, Earlier this morning the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its monetary policy statement. Listed below are the important issues addressed by the central bank:

1. Inflation forecasts have been revised higher and is expected to remain elevated above the 2%-3% range.

2. No concern over weakening AUD – trading around similar levels pre-pandemic as well as the start of 2022.

3. Tight labor market with low unemployment levels.

Price action on the daily AUD/USD chart shows bears looking to test the 0.7000 psychological support zone for the third time since December 2021.​

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