Crude Oil Updates by Solid ECN

SOLIDECN

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Nov 16, 2021
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Crude Oil - Global oil supply holds stable levels​

The market remains stable, and more and more experts agree that the sanctions imposed by Western countries to limit the export of Russian oil do not bring the expected result. Yesterday, Bloomberg published an article reporting another record of weekly marine fuel supplies from Russia: by February 3, their daily volume increased by 125 K barrels to 3.456M barrels, and China, India and Turkey were the main buyers, the total volume for which amounted to 3.29M barrels. However, transportation through pipelines continues to decline, and in January the figure for Germany and Poland fell to 120K barrels per day. Yesterday it became known that Japan joined the sanctions policy of the G7 and European countries aimed at setting the price limit for Russian oil products transported by sea in the amount of 100 dollars per barrel and 40 dollars per barrel, depending on the category. The restrictions came into effect on February 6 but the limit, as noted, will be reviewed every two months, depending on the market situation.

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On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving within the global downwards corridor, gradually approaching the support line around 70.00.

Resistance levels: 83.3, 89 | Support levels: 79.6, 74​
 

SOLIDECN

Master Trader
Nov 16, 2021
3,151
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Crude Oil Technical Analysis​

Crude oil price crawls upwards to reach the thresholds of 78.90 level, reminding you that breaching this level will extend the bullish wave to reach 80.40. Until now, we still suggest the continuation of the bullish bias on the intraday basis as long as 77.05 level remains intact, as breaking it will turn trades to decline towards 75.65 before any new positive attempt.

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The expected trading range for today is between 77.00 support and 80.00 resistance. The expected trading range for today is between 83.60 support and 87.00 resistance.​
 

SOLIDECN

Master Trader
Nov 16, 2021
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Crude Oil Completes Positive Pattern​

Crude oil price approached the positive target mentioned in our last report at 80.40, showing some bearish bias by today’s open to test the support base formed at 78.90 after breaching it previously, and consolidating above this level is considered as the first condition to continue the bullish wave on the intraday basis. By taking a deeper look at the chart, we find that the price completed forming inverted head and shoulders’ pattern that surpasses 80.40 to reach 81.60 followed by 84.25 areas, to continue suggesting the bullish trend for the upcoming period.

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The EMA50 provides the positive support to the price, to reinforce the continuation of the expected bullish trend, while stochastic might cause some sideways fluctuation and temporary negative trades before resuming the expected rise. Therefore, we expect to witness more rise in the upcoming sessions, noting that breaking 78.90 followed by 78.30 levels will stop the positive scenario and push the price to turn to decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 77.50 support and 81.30 resistance.​
 

SOLIDECN

Master Trader
Nov 16, 2021
3,151
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Crude Oil Technical Analysis​

Crude oil price bounced upwards clearly after the negative attempts that it witnessed yesterday, as it kept its stability above 78.00, to surpass 78.90 level and settles above it now, which leads the price to resume the bullish bias, affected by the inverted head and shoulders’ pattern, which has positive targets that start at 81.60 and extend to 84.25.

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Therefore, the bullish trend will be expected for the upcoming sessions, supported by the EMA50 that carries the price from below, being aware that breaking 78.00 will cancel the mentioned positive formation and press on the price to turn to decline, to head towards visiting 75.65 areas mainly.​
 

SOLIDECN

Master Trader
Nov 16, 2021
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Benchmark Brent Crude Oil prices are correcting at 83.​

The market remains stable against the background of incoming multidirectional, fundamental information. Thus, the export of Russian oil is actively redirected to new markets after the introduction of economic sanctions by the EU and members of the G7, and yesterday, India announced another record for energy purchases: total imports in January for the first time exceeded 5.0M barrels per day, and in second place in terms of supply is Russia, which sold a record 1.4M barrels per day, up 9.2% compared to December, while the share of oil from the Middle East in total oil imports India decreased to 48.0%, although at the beginning of last year, it exceeded 80.0%. Meanwhile, the US authorities are developing additional measures to block Russian oil exports. According to Bloomberg, the new bans are planned to be directed against the defense and energy sectors, focusing on compliance with current restrictions and preventing circumvention of price cap restrictions.

Thus, the supply of raw materials on the world market continues to grow, and the data on stocks from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA), which recorded a growth of 16.283M barrels, clearly confirm that it does not allow the asset quotes to return to growth.

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On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving within the local ascending corridor, completing the next wave of decline and getting ready for a reversal, and the technical indicators are uncertain, pointing to a local correction.

Resistance levels: 85.6, 91 | Support levels: 80, 75.5​
 

SOLIDECN

Master Trader
Nov 16, 2021
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Crude Oil - Price pressure remains, but downside prospects are limited​

Pressure on quotes is exerted by expectations of the publication of the minutes of the February meeting of the US Federal Reserve: investors are afraid to see hints that the regulator will continue to raise interest rates for a longer period and lead them to higher peak values than previously thought, and in this case, the risks of a decline in the US economy and declining energy demand may rise. Also, fears of a lack of supply due to the limited supply of Russian oil to the market have subsided slightly, which does not contribute to strengthening the asset. According to experts, despite official Moscow's intention to cut crude production by 500,0K barrels in March, the bulk of sales will remain, as they have been redirected from the European market to the Asian one, and a significant deficit is not expected soon.

In the long term, experts hope for the recovery of the Chinese economy, which can significantly increase demand for hydrocarbons: thus, yesterday, the Chinese authorities announced that this year, the country expected a significant increase in domestic tourism, revenues from which could amount to 4.0T yuan (about 580.8B dollars), up 95.0% from 2022. So, short-term negative factors pressure the oil market while the fundamental picture remains positive.

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The trading instrument is within the medium-term ascending channel, dropping below 82.81 (Murrey level [5/8]), which opens the way for a further decline to 80.00 (lower limit of the ascending channel, the lower line of Bollinger bands) and 78.12 (Murrey level [1/ 8]). A reverse breakout of 84.38 (Murrey level [6/8], the middle line of Bollinger bands) will ensure the resumption of growth to 87.50 (Murrey level [8/8]) and 90.62 (Murrey level [+2/8]).

Resistance levels: 84.38, 87.50, 90.62 | Support levels: 80, 78.12​
 

SOLIDECN

Master Trader
Nov 16, 2021
3,151
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Oil​

This week marks the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While the conflict was expected to be short-lived, the reality turned out to be quite different. Ukraine defends itself thanks to its determination, support from the West and numerous sanctions imposed on Russia. Meanwhile, the invader is still not willing to retreat despite several defeats. Financial markets, meanwhile, have changed markedly over the last 12 months, although some of the price movements were rather surprising. Price movements on many markets reached several dozen or even several hundred percent in the past few months. However, currently the situation stabilized and earlier moves are being reversed on several markets.

Energy commodities​

Russia was one of the largest suppliers of energy resources not only for Europe, but also for many nations around the world. Global community feared that outbreak of the conflict at the end of February 2022 would halt exports of key commodities from Russia. The Kremlin itself decided to use gas as a tool to blackmail Europe. However, after initial price shock on gas, oil and coal markets, prices fell and stabilized as Europe found other suppliers of these key commodities. Putin wanted Europe to freeze over the winter but reduced consumption, supplier diversification and warmer than expected weather pushed the prices below pre-war levels.​
  • TTF natural gas: -42% y/y​
  • US natural gas: -57% y/y​
  • Brent: -17% y/y​
  • ARA coal: +8% y/y​
oil-1.png


This week marks the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While the conflict was expected to be short-lived, the reality turned out to be quite different. Ukraine defends itself thanks to its determination, support from the West and numerous sanctions imposed on Russia. Meanwhile, the invader is still not willing to retreat despite several defeats. Financial markets, meanwhile, have changed markedly over the last 12 months, although some of the price movements were rather surprising. Price movements on many markets reached several dozen or even several hundred percent in the past few months. However, currently the situation stabilized and earlier moves are being reversed on several markets.

Energy commodities​

Russia was one of the largest suppliers of energy resources not only for Europe, but also for many nations around the world. Global community feared that outbreak of the conflict at the end of February 2022 would halt exports of key commodities from Russia. The Kremlin itself decided to use gas as a tool to blackmail Europe. However, after initial price shock on gas, oil and coal markets, prices fell and stabilized as Europe found other suppliers of these key commodities. Putin wanted Europe to freeze over the winter but reduced consumption, supplier diversification and warmer than expected weather pushed the prices below pre-war levels.​
  • TTF natural gas: -42% y/y​
  • US natural gas: -57% y/y​
  • Brent: -17% y/y​
  • ARA coal: +8% y/y​
oil-2.png


Lockheed Martin and BP gained following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. Lockheed gained over 20% while shares of BP rallied over 40%.

Sanctions, economy, inflation and China​

Conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still ongoing. The West is providing massive support for Ukraine, by providing it with weapons, training for its military personnel as well as economic relief. Apart from that, a number of sanctions have been levied on the Russian finance sector and key export commodities. The Russian economy has benefited from sky-high energy commodity prices and it has allowed it to experience a smaller hit than the Ukrainian economy.

Commodity price increases and shutdown of some communications lines boosted inflation around the world. However, it should be said that inflation was on an uncontrolled, upward trajectory even before the outbreak of war. It seems that central banks have achieved at least a partial success but it should be said that a bulk of current deceleration in price growth is driven by a drop in commodity prices.

One should not also forget about China, whose ambition it is to change the direction of dependence on Russia. Current Russian commodity sales revenue is generated mostly via sales to Asia. On the other hand, China has not decided on a similar move as the Russian and refrained from invading Taiwan as it could be a massive disruption to global supply chains.

Will the end of war trigger a market bull run?​

Investors have been hoping for months for any signals suggesting a potential cease fire or peace negotiations. Currently, such a scenario seems neither quick, nor likely. Markets got used to war. One cannot rule out the possibility of Russia further restricting flows of energy commodities given that numerous countries embrace price caps that Russia opposes. On the other hand, it does not seem to be the base case scenario. The end of the war would be good news primarily for Ukraine but would unlikely be a breakthrough from a market point of view. However, it could pave the way for a quicker solution to issues like inflation or risk of economic recession. On the other hand, financial markets have been flooded with negative news as of late and such good news like the end of the Russia-Ukraine war could be a trigger for the return of the bull market.​
 

SOLIDECN

Master Trader
Nov 16, 2021
3,151
22
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Oil​

Crude oil price breached 77.40 level clearly to trade at 78.00 barrier now, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend for the rest of the day, and the way is open to achieve our first target at 78.90, reminding you that breaching it will push the price to 80.40 as a next main target, while holding above 77.40 represents key condition to continue the expected rise, which gets good positive support by the EMA50.

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The expected trading range for today is between 76.20 support and 79.40 resistance.
 

SOLIDECN

Master Trader
Nov 16, 2021
3,151
22
54
39

Oil​

Crude oil price faced strong negative pressure yesterday, as it broke 78.90 level and decline to retest the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders’ pattern that forms solid support at 77.40, noticing that the price leaned on the support line that appears on the chart to start providing positive trades that makes us suggest witnessing bullish bias in the upcoming sessions, targeting testing 78.90 areas initially.

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Therefore, the bullish trend will be expected for today, supported by stochastic positivity, and breaching the targeted level will push the price to achieve additional gains that reach 80.40, being aware that breaking 77.40 followed by 77.05 levels will stop the expected rise and press on the price to suffer more losses on the intraday basis.​
 

SOLIDECN

Master Trader
Nov 16, 2021
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Oil​

On Tuesday, the market could see a drop in risk aversion

The recent panic in the stock market, which was linked to the problems of the banking sector in the USA, has been halted​
  • The main stock indices from the Old Continent ended the session sharply higher​
  • The DAX gained 1.83%, while the French CAC40 added 1.86% and London's FTSE closed 1.17% higher. Poland's WIG20 ended the session slightly above the benchmark +0.11%​
  • DE30 quotations reached key short-term resistance at 15280 points​
  • Today's CPI inflation data from the US was in line with expectations and showed that prices rose by 0.4% in February after accelerating by 0.5% in January. In contrast, annualised CPI was 6.0% in February, the smallest annual price increase since September 2021. (previously 6.4%). The underlying CPI was also in line with expectations.​
  • Wall Street's major stock indices traded higher. The Nasdaq is up 1.5% at the time of preparing this commentary with the S&P500 and Dow Jones adding 1.05% and 0.45% respectively.​
  • Apple halts bonus payments, Meta Platforms announces job cuts​
  • Tuesday saw massive declines in crude oil. OPEC raised its forecast for crude demand growth in CHINA, but left the forecast unchanged when it came to global demand, explaining this by concerns about global economic growth. OIL.WTI quotes are losing more than 5%, with OIL down 4.5% and falling below the $77 per barrel level.​
  • In the forex market today, we are seeing an outflow into commodity currencies, including the Canadian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar. The Japanese yen is performing poorly. The EURUSD pair maintains bullish momentum and struggles to break out above the resistance level near 1.0750 on a sustained basis.​
  • Tuesday brought a continuation of the increases in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin's quotations broke out with momentum above the USD 25,000 level, which is an important resistance in the medium term. Etherum's price, on the other hand, jumped above $1,750.​
  • At 08:40 pm GMT, we will learn API data on oil stocks, and at 09:20 pm GMT, Bowman from the Fed will speak​

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OIL.WTI quotes have overcome an internal trendline, which could herald an attack on the December minimum at $70 per barrel.​
 

Solid ECN

Active Trader
Mar 3, 2022
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Oil​

Oil launched a new week's trading lower amid an overall increase in risk aversion. WTI drops below $65 per barrel and trades at the lowest level since November 2021! Declines accelerated after price dropped below a key $70-72 price zone last week. The $60-65 area is a demand zone marked with local lows from 2021 and local highs from 2019 and 2020.

There are few reasons behind a drop in oil prices:​
  • Concerns over conditions of banking and financial systems in the United States and Europe. UBS will acquire Credit Suisse but it failed to ease market concerns​
  • Demand in China remains weak - imports stay low, run rates in refineries drop but at the same time Chinese exports of oil derivatives are increasing, what may hint at oversupply in the country​
  • Lack of interest from speculators - end-February data shows oil being extremely net oversold by speculators​
  • Goldman Sachs - one of the world's largest institutional bulls when it comes to oil - slashed Brent price 12-month ahead forecast from $100 to $94 per barrel​
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WTI (OIL.WTI) drops below $65 per barrel. Price dropped to a key zone, marked with local highs and lows from previous years, as well as with the range of two largest downward impulses in recent year (2014 and 2020).​
 

SOLIDECN

Master Trader
Nov 16, 2021
3,151
22
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Oil​

Oil is catching a bid this week. Crude prices rallied yesterday with WTI jumping around 5%. The move is being continued this morning, although the scale of gains is not as big as yesterday, at least not yet. Gains are driven by an overall improvement in market sentiment, with concerns over the condition of the banking sector in Europe and the United States slowly fading. Today's move higher may also be supported by comments from the Russian Energy Minister who said that he expects Russian oil and gas production to decline in 2023. However, this can be hardly seen as news as a drop in Russian output has been foreseen as an aftermath of the West imposing sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

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Taking a look at WTI chart (OIL.WTI) at D1 interval, we can see that price is attempting to break above the $73.00 resistance zone that served as the lower limit of a previously broken trading range. While price is trading almost 15% above a daily low from March 20, 2023, technical setup is not bullish yet. In order for it to become more bullish, a break above the $81.20 resistance zone would be needed as this is where previous local high, the upper limit of Overbalance structure and previous price reactions can be found.​
 

SOLIDECN

Master Trader
Nov 16, 2021
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22
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OIL​

Can oil prices fall further? What does it mean for inflation?

Brent price dropped around 9% since the beginning of 2023 but price decline over the past 12 months is already exceeding 30%. Taking a look at the whole post-pandemic recovery move, crude prices currently trade near a midpoint. While it looked like undersupply and increasing demand could be a problem, those concerns turned out to be unnecessary. A strong bearish trend can be observed on the oil market since June 2022 and the latest issues in the banking sector may have resembled the 2007-2009 financial crisis when crude prices quickly plunged from $150 to less than $40 per barrel. Could history repeat itself? Will cheap oil turn out to be a remedy for a number of current issues? Are we set for further price drops in the later part of the year or will oil recover?

Is oil cheap already?​

Brent and WTI are currently trading in a $70-80 per barrel range. Taking a look at the 5-year moving average, oil seems to be priced in-line but a look at the 1-year moving average shows that it is trading around 2 standard deviations below mean, which may hint at oil being oversold in the short-term. On the other hand, looking at a longer horizon, there is still some room for prices to fall. Bloomberg points out that the current price is still too high given the relatively high probability of US recession. According to the news agency, there is a high chance of barrel price dropping below $50 should a recession indeed arrive in the United States.

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Oil looks to be oversold in the short-term but longer-term measures hint that it is priced in-line.

Taking a look at seasonal patterns, oil seems to be significantly oversold, especially when we take a look at 5-year and long-term patterns. On the other hand, taking a look at the worst year in terms of performance in the past 5 years or even longer, oil still has some room to fall, especially in the first 4 months of the year (January-April period). It is often the case that when the first third of the year is bad for prices, the second third is usually significantly better (May-August).

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Seasonality for the oil market. Oil is having a bad start to the year but it does not mean that the worst is already behind.

Will cheap oil be a remedy for current global issues?​

Spare for the Ukraine war and ongoing banking crisis, cheaper oil could actually be a remedy for a number of global issues. A further drop in oil prices would accelerate a drop in inflation, which not only would limit future rate hikes, but may also bring forward rate cuts. US producer's inflation reacted quickly and steeply to a year-over-year decline on the oil market. Lower oil prices may help avoid some of the economic issues but at the same time they may be driven by a potential economic crisis that is currently unfolding.

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Change in oil prices suggests that PPI inflation may continue to drop to as low as 0% YoY!

Is there a chance for further price declines?​

Oil has recovered a bulk of the losses triggered by the recent banking crisis. Nevertheless, a look at fundamentals suggests that price declines may resume and continue. Supply did not drop as much as feared as Russia managed to find markets for its oil. China continues to use its own stockpiles and does not increase imports. This may also lead to a further build-up in US oil inventories. Comparative inventories (nominal change in inventory level over 1 year) could be an important indicator here. It is currently pointing to possibility of further price declines and "strongly oversold" signal will not surface until inventories climb to 80-100 million barrels above year ago levels. Unless an economic crisis arrives, there is a chance for price recovery in the second half of the year - oil drilling rigs data suggests that US production is nearing peak output and inventories in China will run out at some point.

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Comparative inventories suggest that oil prices may continue to drop. Contrarian signal would surface once inventories climb to 80-100 million barrels above year ago levels.

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Oil recovered noticeably but continues to trade in a downtrend. A break above 50- and 100-session moving average, and a break above the upper limit of Overbalance structure later on, would brighten the outlook for oil bulls. However, the outlook for oil remains bearish for now.​
 

SOLIDECN

Master Trader
Nov 16, 2021
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Oil​

  • Output cut came as a surprise as media reports prior to the weekend hinted that OPEC+ JMMC will likely recommend to keep output unchanged at a meeting today​
  • Indices from Asia-Pacific traded mixed today - Nikkei and S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.5% each while Kospi dropped 0.2% and Nifty 50 traded 0.1% lower. Indices from China traded up to 1.2% higher​
  • European and US index futures trade slightly below Friday's cash closing prices​
  • Goldman Sachs updated oil price forecasts following a surprise OPEC output cut. The Bank now expects Brent price of $95 per barrel in December 2023 ($90 prior) and $100 per barrel in December 2024 ($97 prior)​
  • ECB De Guindos said that while headline CPI in euro area is likely to fall this year, core inflation will likely stay firm. ECB members said that European banking sector is robust and that there is ample liquidity in the sector​
  • Fed's Waller said that recent data shows that inflation can be brought down with causing damage to the labor market​
  • Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI dropped from 51.6 to 50.0 in March (exp. 51.7)​
  • Australian building permits increased 4.0% MoM in February (exp. -2.6% MoM)​
  • Cryptocurrencies are trading lower. Bitcoin drops 1%, Ethereum trades 0.4% lower while Dogecoin and Ripple dip 1.8%​
  • Precious metals are pulling back amid USD strengthening - gold and platinum trade 0.9-1.0% lower while silver drops almost 2%​
  • USD and JPY are the best performing major currencies while NZD and EUR lag the most​
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A surprise output cut from OPEC triggered a spike on the oil market. WTI (OIL.WTI) launched a new week near the $81.20 resistance zone, marked with the upper limit of previous trading range as well as the upper limit of the Overbalance structure. However, bulls failed to break above it on the first attempt.​
 

SOLIDECN

Master Trader
Nov 16, 2021
3,151
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Oil​

Official US report on oil inventories was released today at 3:30 pm BST. API estimates released yesterday pointed to an unexpected 0.38 million barrel build (exp. -1.3 mb). However, a Department of Energy report showed that US oil inventories actually grew over the past week by 0.6 million barrels. Gasoline and distillate inventories dropped less than expected. Market reaction was fairly muted with oil trading little changed in the first minutes after release.

US oil inventories
  • Oil inventories: +0.60 mb vs -1.3 mb expected (API: +0.38 mb)​
  • Gasoline inventories: -0.61 mb vs -1.5 mb expected (API: +0.45 mb)​
  • Distillate inventories: -0.33 mb vs -0.7 mb expected (API: -1.98 mb)​
ncWoJ.png


While oil has been fairly muted following the release of DOE data, crude prices are on the rise today. Brent (OIL) is attempting to make a break above the upper limit of the Overbalance structure in the $87.00 per barrel area.​
 

SOLIDECN

Master Trader
Nov 16, 2021
3,151
22
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Oil​

OIL.WTI is retreating by almost 2.5% today as a result of several factors. One is the US dollar, which has not been this strong for a long time as a result of rising yields. Another is the US reserve sales of over 1 million barrels last week. This is not much, but it shows that the US may want to stabilize the oil market. Perhaps the most important factor is Russia's powerful exports at levels last seen before the attack on Ukraine. Russia's exports are doing well, primarily to Asian countries, including India, from where fuel in turn flows to Europe in record volumes.

0M85s.png


A massive bump in WTI oil. After a test of 80 USD, the upper limit of the upward gap can be expected to be tested.​
 

SOLIDECN

Master Trader
Nov 16, 2021
3,151
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Oil​

The US Energy Information Administration released an official weekly report on US oil inventories at 3:30 pm BST today. API estimates released yesterday in the evening showed crude inventories falling more or less in-line with estimates. However, government report showed quite major deviations from both expectations and yesterday's API releases. Crude oil inventories dropped 4.58 mb - much more than expected. On the other hand, gasoline inventories data showed a surprising 1.3 mb build while distillate inventories dropped much less than expected.

EIA report on US oil inventories
  • Oil inventories: -4.58 mb vs -2.5 mb (API: -2.67 mb)​
  • Gasoline inventories: +1.3 mb vs -1.9 mb (API: -1.0 mb)​
  • Distillate inventories: -0.35 mb vs -1.8 mb (API: -1.9 mb)​
0ms5n.png


Oil is trading slightly higher following the release. However, scale of the move did not exceed 0.3% and does not change much in the overall technical picture. Taking a look at OIL.WTI at D1 interval, we can see that price dropped below $80 mark today and even briefly moved into territory of a bullish price gap that was triggered by the most recent OPEC cuts.​
 

SOLIDECN

Master Trader
Nov 16, 2021
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OIL.WTI is pulling back and looks to close bullish price gap​

Oil prices are pulling back and are one their way to close the bullish price gap that was triggered by unexpected OPEC+ decision to cut output. Taking a look at WTI (OIL.WTI) at D1 interval, we can see that the recent price advance was halted near the $82 resistance zone, marked with the upper limit of the Overbalance structure. While prices have traded briefly above this hurdle, bulls failed to uphold momentum and a pullback was launched. Moreover, the price dropped below the 100-season moving average today, which further brightens the outlook for bears. While lower limit of the bullish price gap from April 3 is still more than 2% below current market price, it looks like closing it may be just a matter of time, given current market volatility.

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Taking a look at the chart at lower interval (H1), we can see that WTI is trading in a short-term downtrend. Key resistance to watch in the near-term can be found in the $78.35 area. Unless we see a break above this level, bulls may struggle to launch a longer-lasting upward impulse.

0IAX3.png
 

SOLIDECN

Master Trader
Nov 16, 2021
3,151
22
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728x90.png

Oil​

  • Major Asian stock indexes ended the session lower after yesterday's slump on Wall Street.​
  • Chinese and Japanese markets were closed today for holidays.​
  • Retail sales data from Australia came in slightly better than expected. March retail sales came in at 0.4% on a monthly basis, against expectations of 0.3% month-on-month and the previous reading of 0.2% month-on-month.​
  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand released its latest Financial Stability Report today.​
  • Governor Adrian Orr says that New Zealand’s financial system is well placed to handle the higher interest rate environment and international financial disruption.​
  • New Zealand's labor market report for Q1 showed the addition of new jobs and a lower-than-expected unemployment rate.​
  • Data from NZ, combined with the RBNZ's lack of stability concerns, increase the chances of a RBNZ rate hike at its next meeting. That is scheduled for May 24.​
  • NZD/USD rose on the session to highs just above 0.6250.​
  • Bank of Korea Governor Rhee spoke in an interview saying, amongst other points, that it’s a little bit premature to talk about a policy pivot.​
  • Across major FX the USD lost ground against a higher JPY, CHF, EUR and GBP. AUD and CAD lagged.​
  • Investors are awaiting a decision on interest rates in the US.​
  • In addition to the Fed decision, today will see the release of the ADP report and the ISM index for services, as well as data on US oil inventories.​
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Crude oil scored a weak session yesterday. OIL.WTI quotes are on track to test support at the round $70 level.​
 

Solid ECN

Active Trader
Mar 3, 2022
625
3
34
39

Crude Oil

Crude oil price faces clear negative pressure to move below 72.80 level now, which urges caution from the upcoming trading, as consolidating below this level will stop the expected bullish trend and put the price under additional negative pressure that targets visiting 71.55 as a next negative station, while the price needs to step above 72.80 to manage to resume the bullish wave that its targets begin by breaching 73.80 to confirm heading towards 76.10.

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The expected trading range for today is between 71.50 support and 75.00 resistance.​